Ohio State‘s 2022 ended in dramatic heartbreak in the College Football Playoff, but immediate redemption could be on the horizon. The Buckeyes are the best team in the nation and the favorites to win the national championship, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index and the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
The Buckeyes have a 37% chance to win the title — well ahead of Alabama at 20% and defending champion Georgia at 19% — according to the models.
Before we dive too far into the Buckeyes, other title contenders and the rest of the forecasted college football landscape, a quick refresher: What is FPI, and how do we project the season and College Football Playoff race?
FPI is our season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.
In addition, the Allstate Playoff Predictor uses those simulations to forecast the playoff committee’s selection process, based on the committee’s past behavior. All of which combined allows us to forecast a team’s projected win total, chance to win its conference, reach the CFP and win the national championship.
Let’s break down some of the top storylines emerging out of FPI’s numbers ahead of the 2023 season.
A three-team top tier
So what makes the Buckeyes so dangerous in 2023, even relative to SEC powerhouses Alabama and Georgia? For starters, the best non-QB offensive returning production in the nation. That’s most notable in the receiving game, where the Buckeyes return Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka — who recorded 1,263 and 1,151 receiving yards in 2022, respectively — along with tight end Cade Stover.
The model ranks Ohio State No. 1 in offensive performance in recent seasons (it ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency in 2022) and second in offensive talent (based on cumulative recruiting ranks on that side of the ball). Quarterback aside (we’ll get to that), we can see why FPI makes the Buckeyes the best offense in the nation by a decent margin. Defensively, the Buckeyes rank third — they don’t quite boast the talent levels that FPI sees in Georgia or Alabama — but the margin is smaller and thus the Buckeyes are the best team overall. Georgia’s defense ranks No. 1 in FPI rating, driven more by the historical performance of the unit than anything else.
What’s also interesting here is just how far behind everyone else is from the top three. More than five points per game separates Georgia (No. 3) from LSU (No. 4) in FPI’s ratings. Each of the top three teams has at least a 19% chance to win the national championship, while no other team is over 6%. And there is a cumulative 76% chance — in April! — that one of the three wins the national title.
In addition, there is a 26% chance that all three of the Buckeyes, Crimson Tide and Bulldogs make the playoff, and the top six most likely combinations feature all three of those teams.
In other words: It’s a crystal-clear top tier. And what’s somewhat amazing is this is happening in a year when none of the three are returning their starting quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young and Stetson Bennett are all NFL-bound, and yet the model still has confidence in these squads.
It means that the model has less confidence in each of their QBs than it does for, say, USC with Caleb Williams. Though in the case of Ohio State, for example, the fact that Kyle McCord (the most likely starter, in the model’s mind) had an 87 grade as a recruit gives the model some confidence in him despite the lack of track record.
A QB with a track record of success is ideal, but as evidenced by FPI’s ratings for Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia, it’s not a prerequisite.
Our annual ‘Texas is back (or is it?)’ conversation
Sitting at No. 5 in FPI’s rankings and No. 4 in terms of chance to win the national championship: Texas. It’s a somewhat familiar place for the model, though. FPI was bullish on the Longhorns starting last year (rank: No. 7) and it finished bullish on them, too (rank: No. 7).
But now it’s really in on them, with a 34% chance to reach the playoff and its first top-5 preseason FPI rank since 2012. They’ve got strong talent, based on recruiting grades, on both sides of the ball (fourth on offense, sixth on defense). And, despite losing running back Bijan Robinson to the NFL, the Longhorns return quite a bit of production on offense, led by wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
Quinn Ewers, the incumbent at quarterback facing competition from Arch Manning and Maalik Murphy, didn’t have a great season last year (65.6 QBR, which ranked 50th) but does have a year of experience. And, as we saw with the teams at the top, a good situation around a quarterback can yield a high FPI rating.
The Longhorns also benefit from their conference: There are fewer tough foes and no divisions in the Big 12, and that leads to a more straightforward path to a conference title than they will have in the SEC next season (Texas’ 54% chance to win the Big 12 is higher than Georgia’s 49% or Alabama’s 41% chance to win the SEC). That doesn’t mean Texas has an easy schedule, though. With a road game at Alabama on Texas’ slate, the Longhorns have the toughest schedule of any of the FPI’s top 10 teams.
USC leads a Pac-12 with a chance
A year ago at this time, FPI gave the Pac-12 a mere 8% chance to put a team into the playoff. We were artificially low on USC — the Lincoln Riley effect wasn’t fully accounted for — but the point remained: The Pac-12 was a long shot. That ended up panning out, as the conference did not put a team in the playoff.
But the conference boasts the seventh-best team in the nation in USC, according to FPI. The Trojans alone have a 25% shot at the playoff, and the conference has a 34% chance overall at putting at least one team in the playoff thanks mostly to Oregon (5%) and Utah (4%). (This might be bittersweet for the conference, knowing it will soon lose USC to the Big Ten, but that’s a next-year problem for the Pac-12).
With Williams — who finished fifth in QBR last season and is a potential No. 1 overall pick in 2024 — leading the way, USC enters the season with clearly the best quarterback room in the nation, according to FPI. That they have Williams back after he led the Trojans to a No. 3 rank in offensive efficiency only bolsters the model’s confidence, and is part of why it considers USC to be the second-best offense entering the year only behind Ohio State.
The difference between USC and the top contenders mentioned earlier: The Trojans are elite only on one side of the ball. FPI sees them as the 36th-best defense, which is actually a huge forecasted improvement. The defensive unit ranked 82nd in defensive efficiency last season.
All of this gives USC a strong chance — 50%, a true coin flip — to win the Pac-12. And with an easier but not too easy schedule, a 1-in-4 shot at the playoff.
After finishing 10-3 with strong quarterback play from Jordan Travis (QBR: 85.3, which ranked seventh), the Seminoles are getting some heavy buzz. FPI likes Florida State … but maybe not as much as everyone else. The Seminoles rank 14th in FPI, though they are just two-tenths of a point away from 12th.
The model is mostly buying the offense (rank: No. 10) but is less confident in the defense, which it ranks 26th. In general, Florida State has lower talent rankings (based on the recruiting ranks of players on the roster) than the teams above it in FPI. The Seminoles rank 17th in offensive talent and 24th in defensive talent. There’s a lot to like here — just not quite as a top-10 team yet.
It’s in part due to the talent gap that FPI still likes Clemson (FPI rank: eighth) more in the ACC. The Tigers, who have higher talent ratings on both sides of the ball, have a 45% chance to win the ACC, while the model gives Florida State just a 17% chance.
Considering the hype around Colorado with Deion Sanders now the Buffaloes’ head coach, as well as a slew of transfers in to play for him, it’s a bit of a shock to see Colorado all the way down at … 95th in FPI’s rankings — the lowest-ranked Power 5 team.
The model has somewhat of a handle on the transfers. They’re recognized in Colorado’s “talent” and returning production portions of the calculation, and the Buffaloes do have higher talent scores on both offense and defense than virtually all of the teams around them in the overall rankings. From the model’s perspective, though, that isn’t enough to overcome the recent poor play. The Buffaloes ranked fourth worst and 11th worst in offensive and defensive efficiency last season. So FPI actually is predicting a decent step up this year.
That being said, 95th is still rough. It’s probably reasonable to think this is an unusual circumstance of roster turnover — one-win teams don’t usually transfer in high-end players — that FPI might not be able to perfectly capture.
Conference playoff race
The SEC and Big Ten are each extremely likely (97% and 94%, respectively) to put a team in the playoff. But what about two teams, like the Big Ten had last year?
The SEC is the favorite to pull off that maneuver in 2023 with a 51% chance to put multiple teams in the playoff, while the Big Ten is at 25% (every other conference is under 1%).
The SEC has two major things going for it:
• While Ohio State is the best team in the nation, FPI believes the SEC boasts teams Nos. 2, 3 and 4 in Alabama, Georgia and LSU. By contrast, Michigan and Penn State — the Big Ten’s next-best teams — come in at No. 6 and No. 10.
• The conference’s top two teams are in separate divisions and aren’t scheduled to play each other. That means Alabama and Georgia won’t beat up on each other until the conference championship game at the latest, while only one of Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State can reach the Big Ten championship game.
Lauren Poe and Mitchell Wesson contributed to this article.
Henderson has been sidelined with a right intercostal strain and missed the first seven games of the big league campaign.
The 23-year-old Henderson will lead off and play shortstop against the host Royals.
Henderson was injured during a spring training game Feb. 27. He was fourth in American League MVP voting last season when he batted .281 and racked up career bests of 37 homers and 92 RBIs.
Henderson completed a five-game rehab stint at Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday. He batted .263 (5-for-19) with two homers and four RBIs and played four games at shortstop and one as the designated hitter. He did commit three errors.
“I think everybody’s looking forward to having Gunnar back on the team,” Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said Thursday. “The rehab went really, really well. I talked to him a couple days ago, he feels great swinging the bat. The timing came, especially the last few days. He just had to get out there and get some reps defensively and get some games in, and it all went well.”
Baltimore optioned outfielder Dylan Carlson to Triple-A Norfolk to open up a roster spot. The 26-year-old was 0-for-4 with a run and RBI in two games this season.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
When New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns attempted to assemble the best possible roster for the 2025 season this winter, the top priority was signing outfielder Juan Soto. Next was the need to replenish the starting rotation and bolster the bullpen. Then, days before pitchers and catchers reported for spring training, the lineup received one final significant reinforcement when first baseman Pete Alonso re-signed.
Acquiring a player with a singing career on the side didn’t make the cut.
“No, that is not on the list,” Stearns said with a smile.
Stearns’ decision not to re-sign Jose Iglesias, the infielder behind the mic for the viral 2024 Mets anthem “OMG,” was attributed to creating more roster flexibility. But it also hammered home a reality: The scrappy 2024 Mets, authors of a magical summer in Queens, are a thing of the past. The 2025 Mets, who will report to Citi Field for their home opener Friday, have much of the same core but also some prominent new faces — and the new, outsized expectations that come with falling two wins short of the World Series, then signing Soto to the richest contract in professional sports history.
But there’s a question surrounding this year’s team that you can’t put a price tag on: Can these Mets rekindle the magic — the vibes, the memes, the feel-good underdog story — that seemed to come out of nowhere to help carry them to Game 6 of the National League Championship Series last season?
“Last year the culture was created,” Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said. “It’s a matter of continuing it.”
For all the success Stearns has engineered — his small-market Milwaukee Brewers teams reached the postseason five times in eight seasons after he became the youngest general manager in history in 2015 — the 40-year-old Harvard grad, like the rest of his front office peers knows there’s no precise recipe for clubhouse chemistry. There is no culture projection system. No Vibes Above Replacement.
“Culture is very important,” Stearns said last weekend in the visiting dugout at Daikin Park before his club completed an opening-weekend series against the Houston Astros. “Culture is also very difficult to predict.”
Still, it seems the Mets’ 2024 season will be all but impossible to recreate.
There was Grimace, the purple McDonald’s blob who spontaneously became the franchise’s unofficial mascot after throwing out a first pitch in June. “OMG,” performed under Iglesias’ stage name, Candelita, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Latin Digital Songs chart, before a remix featuring Pitbull was released in October. Citi Field became a karaoke bar whenever Lindor stepped into the batter’s box with The Temptations’ “My Girl” as his walk-up song. Alonso unveiled a lucky pumpkin in October. They were gimmicks that might have felt forced if they hadn’t felt so right.
“I don’t know if what we did last year could be replicated because it was such a chaos-filled group,” Mets reliever Ryne Stanek said. “I don’t know if that’s replicable because there’s just too many things going on. I don’t know if that’s a sustainable model. But I think the expectation of winning is really important. I think establishing what we did last year and coming into this year where people are like, ‘Oh, no, that’s what we’re expecting to do,’ makes it different. It’s always a different vibe whenever you feel like you’re the hunter versus being the hunted.”
For the first two months last season, the Mets were terrible hunters. Lindor was relentlessly booed at Citi Field during another slow start. The bullpen got crushed. The losses piled up. The Mets began the season 0-5 and sunk to rock bottom on May 29 when reliever Jorge Lopez threw his glove into the stands during a 10-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers that dropped the team to 22-33.
That night, the Mets held a players-only meeting. From there, perhaps coincidentally, everything changed. The Mets won the next day, and 67 of their final 107 games.
This year, to avoid an early malaise and to better incorporate new faces like Soto and Opening Day starter Clay Holmes, players made it a point to hold meetings during spring training to lay a strong foundation.
“At the end of the day, we know who we are and that’s the beauty of our club,” Alonso said. “Not just who we are talent-wise, but who each individual is as a man and a personality. For us, our major, major strength is our collective identity as a unit.”
Organizationally, the Mets are attempting a dual-track makeover: Becoming perennial World Series contenders while not taking themselves too seriously.
The commemorative purple Grimace seat installed at Citi Field in September — Section 302, Row 6, Seat 12 in right field — remains there as part of a two-year contract. Last week, the franchise announced it will feature a New York-city themed “Five Borough” race at every home game — with a different mascot competing to represent each borough. For a third straight season, USA Today readers voted Citi Field — home of the rainbow cookie egg roll, among many other innovative treats — as having the best ballpark food in baseball.
In the clubhouse, their identity is evolving.
“I’m very much in the camp that you can’t force things,” Mets starter Sean Manaea said. “I mean, you can, but you don’t really end up with good results. And if you wait for things to happen organically, then sometimes it can take too long. So, there’s like a nudging of sorts. It’s like, ‘Let’s kind of come up with something, but not force it.’ So there’s a fine balance there and you just got to wait and see what happens.”
Stearns believes it starts with what the Mets can control: bringing positive energy every day and fostering a family atmosphere. It’s hard to quantify, but vibes undoubtedly helped fuel the Mets’ 2024 success. It’ll be a tough act to follow.
“It’s fluid,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “I like where guys are at as far as the team chemistry goes and things like that and the connections and the relationships. But it’ll continue to take some time. And winning helps, clearly.”
Jeff Legwold covers the Denver Broncos at ESPN. He has covered the Broncos for more than 20 years and also assists with NFL draft coverage, joining ESPN in 2013. He has been a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Board of Selectors since 1999, too. Jeff previously covered the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans at previous stops prior to ESPN.
BOULDER, Colo. — A horde of NFL talent evaluators headed for the mountains Friday for the Colorado Showcase, where Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter was one of the big draws.
However, it was going to be a limited look at best as Hunter was not seen when players’ heights and weights were taken or for the jumps and 40-yard dash.
Hunter, who is expected to be a top-five selection in this year’s draft and is the No. 1 player on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board, was initially not expected to participate in any on-field work, but Friday morning some scouts in attendance said they expected the two-way star to run routes as a receiver for quarterback Shedeur Sanders‘ throwing session.
Hunter did not work out at the scouting combine or Big 12 pro day but did meet with teams in Indianapolis. Sanders, one of the top quarterbacks on the board and Kiper’s No. 5 player overall, also did not work out at the combine.
Sanders’ brother, Colorado safety Shilo Sanders, measured in at 5-foot-11⅞, 196 pounds, but he did not participate in the jumps or bench press that opened the workout, citing a right shoulder injury.
The highly attended event — by scouts, coaches and personnel executives as well as fans packing small bleachers — had a festive atmosphere. Colorado coach Deion Sanders named it the “We Ain’t Hard 2 Find Showcase,” completed with a large lighted “showcase” sign next to the drills.
Hunter, who has said he wants to play offense and defense in the NFL, won the Chuck Bednarik (top defensive player) and Biletnikoff (top receiver) awards, in addition to the Heisman. He said whether he would primarily be a wide receiver or cornerback in the NFL “depended on the team that picks me.”
He had 96 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns as a receiver last season to go with 35 tackles, 11 pass breakups and four interceptions at cornerback. In the Buffaloes’ regular-season finale against Oklahoma State, he became the only FBS player in the past 25 years with three scrimmage touchdowns on offense and an interception in the same game, according to ESPN Research.
Hunter played 1,380 total snaps in Colorado’s 12 regular-season games: 670 on offense, 686 on defense and 24 on special teams. He played 1,007 total snaps in 2023.
With all NFL eyes on the Colorado campus to see Sanders throw, one player who made the most of it was wide receiver Will Sheppard, who was not invited to the combine. Sheppard, who measured in at 6-2¼, 196 pounds, ran his 40s in 4.56 and 4.54 to go with a 40½-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-11 in the broad jump.