UK unemployment rate increases while pay growth rises faster than expected
The UK’s unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8% in the three months to February, according to official figures that also highlighted a faster than expected spike in wage rises.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the jobless rate rose from 3.7% due to a surge in the number of people unemployed for more than six months.
The rate rose despite part-time employees and self-employed workers driving an increase in the employment rate.
There was also a signal in the wider ONS figures of upwards pressure to come on the unemployment rate as the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 28,200 in March.
The data also revealed that vacancies fell by another 47,000 to 1.1 million in the three months to March.
The ONS said this reflected “uncertainty across industries, as survey respondents continue to cite economic pressures as a factor in holding back on recruitment”.
Total pay, including bonuses, grew at an annual rate of 5.9% in the three months to February.
That was up from the 5.7% measured the previous month and at a time when energy-driven inflation remained at a 40-year high above 10%.
The rate of inflation currently stands at 10.4%.
Regular pay growth was static at 6.6%.
The pace of wage rises is a closely-watched measure as the cost of living crisis evolves – and not just for pinched consumers.
As strike action over pay continues to hammer several sectors including the NHS, the Bank of England has urged wage restraint.
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UK economy flatlines as strikes bite
It has been worried that pay growth to match inflation only adds to upwards pressure on prices in the economy by spurring demand.
Policymakers next meet in May. By then, we will know whether inflation has eased to a single-digit figure.
The ONS data showed that the gap between public and private sector earnings growth continued to narrow as more settlements were made.
There was some brighter news in that the economic inactivity rate, which has come into sharp focus since the COVID pandemic, decreased by 0.4 percentage points on the quarter, to 21.1%.
It was driven by all age groups amid government efforts to get more people back to the workplace but spearheaded by students.
The ONS data highlighted that the number of people inactive because of long-term sickness increased to a record high.
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said of the figures: “While unemployment remains close to historic lows, rising prices continue to eat into pay cheques which is why halving inflation this year is one of our top economic priorities.
“To help families in the meantime, we are making work pay with a record increase in the National Living Wage, while providing cost of living support worth an average of £3,300 per household this year and last, funded through windfall taxes on energy profits.”
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said the Conservatives had held the country back.
“Their lack of ambition for Britain is leaving real wages down, families worse off, hundreds of thousands fewer people in work and our economy lagging”, she responded.
Business
Energy bills to rise again from January but spring falls to come, research firm Cornwall Insight forecasts
Energy bills are to rise again next year, according to a respected forecaster.
Costs from January to March are projected to rise another 1% to £1,736 a year for the average user, according to research firm Cornwall Insight.
The energy price cap, which sets a limit on how much companies can charge per unit of electricity, is also expected to rise, costing typical households an extra £19 a year.
It’s a further increase after energy costs rose 10% from October.
After the latest hike, there were hopes of a fall in the new year, but volatile wholesale gas and electricity markets are still above historic average costs.
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Prices have gone up due to supply concerns arising from Russia‘s war in Ukraine, and maintenance of Norwegian gas infrastructure.
But spring is expected to herald a reduction as is October 2025, Cornwall Insight said.
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Every three months energy regulator Ofgem revises the cap based on wholesale costs.
The official January price cap announcement will be made on Friday.
It comes as millions of pensioners lost their automatic winter fuel allowance payment after the government means-tested the benefit.
Meanwhile, Cornwall Insight’s principal consultant Dr Craig Lowrey warned “millions” of households won’t heat their homes to “recommended temperatures, risking serious health consequences” with bills on the rise.
“With it being widely accepted that high prices are here to stay, we need to see action,” he said, suggesting options like cheaper rates for low-income homes, benefit restructuring, or other targeted support for the vulnerable “must be seriously considered”.
The energy price cap system is being reviewed by Ofgem with possible changes to the standing charge coming over the next year.
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The long-lasting solution to high energy bills is the transition to UK-produced renewable power, the firm said.
“While there will be upfront costs, this shift is essential to building a sustainable and secure energy system for the future.”
The owners of Scotland’s only oil refinery have rejected a US-led approach about a possible bid for it months before its scheduled closure.
Sky News has learnt that a consortium said to be led by Robert McKee, an American energy industry veteran, wrote to Petroineos, the owner of the Grangemouth site, to express an interest in buying it.
The approach, which is understood to have been made earlier this month, was rejected by Petroineos, which is 50%-owned by the petrochemicals empire founded by the Manchester United FC shareholder Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
The consortium is understood to comprise The Canal Group, which is reportedly developing a green energy refinery in Texas, and Trading Stack, a Middle East-based commodities trader.
Mr McKee spent nearly four decades with ConocoPhillips, one of the biggest energy companies in the US.
Sources close to the situation said that Petroineos had rebuffed the offer in order to concentrate on a publicly announced plan to transform the century-old plant into a finished fuels import terminal.
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They added that the nature of the consortium’s approach had raised questions about its access to financing and expertise in operating an asset of this kind.
The Grangemouth refinery, which employs about 450 people, loses about £200m annually.
Its other shareholder is the state-backed Chinese energy giant PetroChina.
The site is due to close next year.
A person close to the consortium insisted that its financing was robust and said it would assess the feasibility of building a new refinery elsewhere in the area.
They added that the consortium had had “positive interactions” with trade union officials, and believed that there was scope to rapidly make Grangemouth’s refinery operations profitable.
On Monday, a spokesman for Petroineos said: “Since the Petroineos joint venture was formed 13 years ago, our shareholders have invested nearly £1bn in the refinery, only to absorb losses of £600m.
“Last week, the refinery lost £385,000 on average each day and we expect to lose more than £150m in total during the course of this year.
“We have not received any credible or viable bids for the refinery.”
A spokesman for the consortium declined to comment.
Cineworld’s hedge fund backers are drawing up plans to return the cinema operator to the public markets amid continuing uncertainty about the future of dozens of its British sites.
Sky News has learnt that the company’s owners are at the early stages of considering a New York listing for the business, with the first half of 2026 considered a likely window for it to take place.
City insiders said that a flotation was likely to encompass Cineworld’s operations outside the UK, with the group’s board expected to consider a sale of the British operations at some point.
They cautioned, however, that no decisions had been reached and would not be for some time.
The fate of Cineworld’s business in the UK has been mired in uncertainty for months, with the company initially exploring a sale of it before turning to a restructuring plan which compromises many of its landlords and other creditors.
It has announced the permanent closure of six sites, but it emerged last month that nearly 20 more were at risk of being shut amid ongoing talks with property owners.
The restructuring plan is due to complete later this month, which some landlords have opposed over the fairness of its terms.
Documents circulated as part of the restructuring plan process highlighted the fact that the company did not have sufficient funding to meet a quarterly rent bill on June 24 of £15.9m.
“Absent this funding, the UK Group would have been insolvent on a cashflow basis,” they said.
Other cinema operators, such as Odeon, are now poised to step in to take over small numbers of Cineworld’s other sites.
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The company trades from more than 100 locations in Britain, including at the Picturehouse chain, and employs thousands of people.
Cineworld grew under the leadership of the Greidinger family into a global giant of the industry, acquiring chains including Regal in the US in 2018 and the British company of the same name four years earlier.
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Its multibillion-dollar debt mountain led it into crisis, though, and forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2022.
It delisted from the London Stock Exchange in August 2023, having seen its share price collapse.
In addition to the UK, Cineworld also operates in central and Eastern Europe, Israel and the US.
Cineworld has been contacted for comment.
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