Inflation eases but still remains above 10% as food costs at 45-year high
The rate of inflation has eased slightly but still remains above 10%, according to official figures showing food and drink costs at a 45-year high.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the consumer prices index (CPI) measure slowed to 10.1% in March from 10.4% the previous month.
Economists had largely expected a figure of 9.8%.
The data represents a slight improvement in the energy-driven cost of living crisis as fuel prices fell back to levels seen a year ago when Russia’s war in Ukraine prompted a spike in oil costs.
However, upwards pressure remained from household gas and electricity and food, including essentials such as bread, milk and eggs.
Food and non-alcoholic drink inflation was measured at 19.1% by the ONS – the highest level since August 1977.
High commodity and production costs are mostly to blame.
Other factors behind the spike were highlighted in February’s inflation data when the salad shortage struck supermarkets.
A crumb of comfort is that prices for goods such as tomatoes and cucumbers are tipped to fall sharply as the UK growing season gathers pace.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the easing in overall inflation in March: “The main drivers of the decline were motor fuel prices and heating oil costs, both of which fell after sharp rises at the same time last year.
“Clothing, furniture and household goods prices increased, but more slowly than a year ago.
“However, these were partially offset by the cost of food, which is still climbing steeply, with bread and cereal price inflation at a record high.
“The overall costs facing business have been largely stable since last summer, although prices remain high.”
The latest figures were released against a backdrop of hopes that a deceleration in inflation would allow the Bank of England to pause its action to battle inflation through interest rate rises.
It has raised Bank rates at 11 consecutive meetings since December 2021 in a bid to keep a lid on price pressures in the economy.
While policymakers can do nothing about things like energy – the main driver of the inflation crisis – the Bank can look to take demand out of the economy by raising borrowing costs.
It will have been encouraged by the easing in the headline rate of inflation.
But a separate measure closely watched by the Bank that strips out volatile price elements, known as core inflation, remained static at 6.2%.
Employment data released on Tuesday also showed that wages continued to creep upwards, albeit at levels well below CPI.
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What is driving wages up?
The Bank has previously expressed worries that wage rises seeking to combat the hit to household budgets from inflation, which have come into sharp focus during the winter strikes across the economy, risk stoking inflation ahead.
Financial market data suggested the chance of a 0.25 percentage point rise in Bank Rate at the next meeting, due next month, had risen from 80% to 95%.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented: “‘The heat has been turned down on the bubbling cauldron of prices, but inflation is still scalding and interest rates look set to be pushed up again to try and cool it down rapidly.
“Instead of retreating below double digits, CPI is staying stubbornly high, causing more pain for companies and consumers.”
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “These figures reaffirm exactly why we must continue with our efforts to drive down inflation so we can ease pressure on families and businesses.
“We are on track to do this – with the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) forecasting we will halve inflation this year – and we’ll continue supporting people with cost-of-living support worth an average of £3,300 per household over this year and last, funded through windfall taxes on energy profits.”
Labour shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said: “The question for families remains as real as ever – when will they feel better off under this Conservative government?
“And, why when the cost of living continues to bite, is the government refusing to freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants?”
UK
Use of drones to fly weapons into prisons has become a ‘threat to national security’, watchdog warns
The use of drones to fly drugs and weapons into UK prisons needs to be tackled “urgently” because it has become a threat to “national security”, the chief inspector of prisons has said.
Charlie Taylor added that police and the prison service had in effect “ceded the airspace” around HMP Manchester and HMP Long Lartin to organised crime gangs who are using the gadgets to deliver contraband to inmates.
The two high security prisons hold some of the most dangerous men in the country, including terrorists and organised crime bosses.
Mr Taylor’s warning comes after inspections of HMP Manchester, based in the city centre, and HMP Long Lartin, in Evesham, Worcestershire, found both prisons had “thriving illicit economies” of drugs, mobile phones and weapons.
Inspectors also found that basic security measures such as protective netting and CCTV had fallen into disrepair.
Some inmates at HMP Manchester, a category B jail which holds a small number of category A prisoners, had burned holes in windows so that they could receive regular deliveries by drone, the HM Inspectorate of Prisons watchdog said as it published the findings of the inspections.
It added that many of the drones had “increasingly large payloads” which “had the potential to lead to serious disruption and even escape”.
Mr Taylor said: “It is highly alarming that the police and prison service have, in effect ceded the airspace above two high-security prisons to organised crime gangs which are able to deliver contraband to jails holding extremely dangerous prisoners including some who have been designated as high-risk category A.
“The safety of staff, prisoners and ultimately that of the public, is seriously compromised by the failure to tackle what has become a threat to national security.
“The prison service, the police and other security services must urgently confront organised gang activity and reduce the supply of drugs and other illicit items which so clearly undermine every aspect of prison life.”
The latest warning comes months after an inmate at high-security HMP Garth in Lancashire told inspectors the prison was like an “airport” because there were so many drones flying in drugs.
Inspectors found prisoners had been using the elements from their kettles to burn holes in their “inadequately protected” Perspex windows to allow the “entry of drones laden with contraband”.
Prisoners burned holes in their windows at HMP Garth. Pic: HM Inspectorate of Prisons
The inspections at HMP Manchester and HMP Long Lartin, which took place across September and October 2024, also revealed other serious concerns around safety and security at both sites.
Mr Taylor felt the situation was so bad at HMP Manchester that he issued an urgent notification for improvement to the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
At Manchester, 39% of prisoners tested positive in mandatory drug tests, while at Long Lartin, 50% of those who responded to the watchdog’s survey said it was easy to get drugs and alcohol.
Violence and self-harm at both prisons was also found to have increased, which the watchdog said was partly driven by drugs and the accompanying debt prisoners found themselves in.
Meanwhile there had been six “self-inflicted deaths” at Manchester since the watchdog’s last inspection in 2021, with a seventh taking place after the most recent visit.
It is now one of the most violent prisons in the country, with a high number of serious assaults against prisoners and staff.
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Many officers “lacked confidence, were demoralised, and were struggling to manage experienced prisoners who were serving long sentences for serious crimes”, the watchdog said.
Manchester was also found to have a chronic rodent infestation, while there was widespread dirt, damp and litter at both sites.
Prisoners at Manchester were also found to have used torn-up foam from mattresses and pillows to keep out the cold.
Inspectors found 38% of prisoners there were locked up during the working day and poor attendance at education and work was further fuelling the boredom, drug-taking, self-harm and violence.
At Long Lartin, which houses both category A and B prisoners, a continued lack of in-cell toilets for many prisoners led them to use buckets and throw bags of excrement out of the windows, many of which were not cleared up, the watchdog said.
The Ministry of Justice said in a statement: “This government inherited prisons in crisis – overcrowded, with drugs and violence rife.
“We are gripping the situation by investing in prison maintenance and security, working with the police and others to tackle serious organised crime, and building more prison places to lock up dangerous criminals.”
Reform UK has grown in support to within one percentage point of Labour according to a new poll for Sky News by YouGov which suggests Britain has entered a new era of three-way party politics.
Sir Keir Starmer looks set to spend the parliament locked in a fight with two right-wing parties after Labour support dropped sharply in the first YouGov poll since the general election.
The poll shows the Tories have now been pushed into third place – two months after Kemi Badenoch was elected leader.
The data collected over the weekend puts Labour on 26%, Reform UK on 25%, Conservatives on 22%, Liberal Democrats on 14% and Greens on 8%.
This is a huge switch from the general election, when Labour was on 35%, Conservatives on 24%, Reform UK on 15%, Lib Dem on 13% and Greens on 7%.
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This is the first of YouGov’s weekly voting intention polls for Sky News, shared with The Times.
It reflects a drop in satisfaction with the government, a rise in support for Reform UK, and shows how the Labour vote has split in all directions since the election.
Labour has retained 54% of their vote at the general election – 7% have gone to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Green Party, 5% to Reform UK, 4% to the Tories – while 23% of those polled did not say, did not know or would not vote.
Reform UK’s vote has grown since the general election at the expense of all other parties, with 16% of voters who backed the Tories at the ballot last year now saying they’d support Reform.
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The judgement on Sir Keir’s first six months in office is damning, however.
Some 10% say the government has been successful while 60% say unsuccessful.
Older voters have turned away from Labour. Just 14% of over 65s would now vote Labour, down from 22% around the time of the election.
However, there are signs the Tory party remains a toxic brand. Reform UK are the least unpopular party, with a net favourability rating of -32, Labour a touch worse on -34 and the Tories down on -45.
YouGov interviewed 2,279 voters in Great Britain on Sunday 12 January and Monday 13 January.
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