Inflation eases but still remains above 10% as food costs at 45-year high
The rate of inflation has eased slightly but still remains above 10%, according to official figures showing food and drink costs at a 45-year high.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the consumer prices index (CPI) measure slowed to 10.1% in March from 10.4% the previous month.
Economists had largely expected a figure of 9.8%.
The data represents a slight improvement in the energy-driven cost of living crisis as fuel prices fell back to levels seen a year ago when Russia’s war in Ukraine prompted a spike in oil costs.
However, upwards pressure remained from household gas and electricity and food, including essentials such as bread, milk and eggs.
Food and non-alcoholic drink inflation was measured at 19.1% by the ONS – the highest level since August 1977.
High commodity and production costs are mostly to blame.
Other factors behind the spike were highlighted in February’s inflation data when the salad shortage struck supermarkets.
A crumb of comfort is that prices for goods such as tomatoes and cucumbers are tipped to fall sharply as the UK growing season gathers pace.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the easing in overall inflation in March: “The main drivers of the decline were motor fuel prices and heating oil costs, both of which fell after sharp rises at the same time last year.
“Clothing, furniture and household goods prices increased, but more slowly than a year ago.
“However, these were partially offset by the cost of food, which is still climbing steeply, with bread and cereal price inflation at a record high.
“The overall costs facing business have been largely stable since last summer, although prices remain high.”
The latest figures were released against a backdrop of hopes that a deceleration in inflation would allow the Bank of England to pause its action to battle inflation through interest rate rises.
It has raised Bank rates at 11 consecutive meetings since December 2021 in a bid to keep a lid on price pressures in the economy.
While policymakers can do nothing about things like energy – the main driver of the inflation crisis – the Bank can look to take demand out of the economy by raising borrowing costs.
It will have been encouraged by the easing in the headline rate of inflation.
But a separate measure closely watched by the Bank that strips out volatile price elements, known as core inflation, remained static at 6.2%.
Employment data released on Tuesday also showed that wages continued to creep upwards, albeit at levels well below CPI.
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What is driving wages up?
The Bank has previously expressed worries that wage rises seeking to combat the hit to household budgets from inflation, which have come into sharp focus during the winter strikes across the economy, risk stoking inflation ahead.
Financial market data suggested the chance of a 0.25 percentage point rise in Bank Rate at the next meeting, due next month, had risen from 80% to 95%.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented: “‘The heat has been turned down on the bubbling cauldron of prices, but inflation is still scalding and interest rates look set to be pushed up again to try and cool it down rapidly.
“Instead of retreating below double digits, CPI is staying stubbornly high, causing more pain for companies and consumers.”
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “These figures reaffirm exactly why we must continue with our efforts to drive down inflation so we can ease pressure on families and businesses.
“We are on track to do this – with the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) forecasting we will halve inflation this year – and we’ll continue supporting people with cost-of-living support worth an average of £3,300 per household over this year and last, funded through windfall taxes on energy profits.”
Labour shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said: “The question for families remains as real as ever – when will they feel better off under this Conservative government?
“And, why when the cost of living continues to bite, is the government refusing to freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants?”
Business
Energy bills to rise again from January but spring falls to come, research firm Cornwall Insight forecasts
Energy bills are to rise again next year, according to a respected forecaster.
Costs from January to March are projected to rise another 1% to £1,736 a year for the average user, according to research firm Cornwall Insight.
The energy price cap, which sets a limit on how much companies can charge per unit of electricity, is also expected to rise, costing typical households an extra £19 a year.
It’s a further increase after energy costs rose 10% from October.
After the latest hike, there were hopes of a fall in the new year, but volatile wholesale gas and electricity markets are still above historic average costs.
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Prices have gone up due to supply concerns arising from Russia‘s war in Ukraine, and maintenance of Norwegian gas infrastructure.
But spring is expected to herald a reduction as is October 2025, Cornwall Insight said.
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Every three months energy regulator Ofgem revises the cap based on wholesale costs.
The official January price cap announcement will be made on Friday.
It comes as millions of pensioners lost their automatic winter fuel allowance payment after the government means-tested the benefit.
Meanwhile, Cornwall Insight’s principal consultant Dr Craig Lowrey warned “millions” of households won’t heat their homes to “recommended temperatures, risking serious health consequences” with bills on the rise.
“With it being widely accepted that high prices are here to stay, we need to see action,” he said, suggesting options like cheaper rates for low-income homes, benefit restructuring, or other targeted support for the vulnerable “must be seriously considered”.
The energy price cap system is being reviewed by Ofgem with possible changes to the standing charge coming over the next year.
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The long-lasting solution to high energy bills is the transition to UK-produced renewable power, the firm said.
“While there will be upfront costs, this shift is essential to building a sustainable and secure energy system for the future.”
The owners of Scotland’s only oil refinery have rejected a US-led approach about a possible bid for it months before its scheduled closure.
Sky News has learnt that a consortium said to be led by Robert McKee, an American energy industry veteran, wrote to Petroineos, the owner of the Grangemouth site, to express an interest in buying it.
The approach, which is understood to have been made earlier this month, was rejected by Petroineos, which is 50%-owned by the petrochemicals empire founded by the Manchester United FC shareholder Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
The consortium is understood to comprise The Canal Group, which is reportedly developing a green energy refinery in Texas, and Trading Stack, a Middle East-based commodities trader.
Mr McKee spent nearly four decades with ConocoPhillips, one of the biggest energy companies in the US.
Sources close to the situation said that Petroineos had rebuffed the offer in order to concentrate on a publicly announced plan to transform the century-old plant into a finished fuels import terminal.
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They added that the nature of the consortium’s approach had raised questions about its access to financing and expertise in operating an asset of this kind.
The Grangemouth refinery, which employs about 450 people, loses about £200m annually.
Its other shareholder is the state-backed Chinese energy giant PetroChina.
The site is due to close next year.
A person close to the consortium insisted that its financing was robust and said it would assess the feasibility of building a new refinery elsewhere in the area.
They added that the consortium had had “positive interactions” with trade union officials, and believed that there was scope to rapidly make Grangemouth’s refinery operations profitable.
On Monday, a spokesman for Petroineos said: “Since the Petroineos joint venture was formed 13 years ago, our shareholders have invested nearly £1bn in the refinery, only to absorb losses of £600m.
“Last week, the refinery lost £385,000 on average each day and we expect to lose more than £150m in total during the course of this year.
“We have not received any credible or viable bids for the refinery.”
A spokesman for the consortium declined to comment.
Cineworld’s hedge fund backers are drawing up plans to return the cinema operator to the public markets amid continuing uncertainty about the future of dozens of its British sites.
Sky News has learnt that the company’s owners are at the early stages of considering a New York listing for the business, with the first half of 2026 considered a likely window for it to take place.
City insiders said that a flotation was likely to encompass Cineworld’s operations outside the UK, with the group’s board expected to consider a sale of the British operations at some point.
They cautioned, however, that no decisions had been reached and would not be for some time.
The fate of Cineworld’s business in the UK has been mired in uncertainty for months, with the company initially exploring a sale of it before turning to a restructuring plan which compromises many of its landlords and other creditors.
It has announced the permanent closure of six sites, but it emerged last month that nearly 20 more were at risk of being shut amid ongoing talks with property owners.
The restructuring plan is due to complete later this month, which some landlords have opposed over the fairness of its terms.
Documents circulated as part of the restructuring plan process highlighted the fact that the company did not have sufficient funding to meet a quarterly rent bill on June 24 of £15.9m.
“Absent this funding, the UK Group would have been insolvent on a cashflow basis,” they said.
Other cinema operators, such as Odeon, are now poised to step in to take over small numbers of Cineworld’s other sites.
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The company trades from more than 100 locations in Britain, including at the Picturehouse chain, and employs thousands of people.
Cineworld grew under the leadership of the Greidinger family into a global giant of the industry, acquiring chains including Regal in the US in 2018 and the British company of the same name four years earlier.
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Its multibillion-dollar debt mountain led it into crisis, though, and forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2022.
It delisted from the London Stock Exchange in August 2023, having seen its share price collapse.
In addition to the UK, Cineworld also operates in central and Eastern Europe, Israel and the US.
Cineworld has been contacted for comment.
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