Late-round NFL draft finds for every Power 5 team, from Tom Brady to Richard Sherman
While much of the considerable attention paid to the NFL draft focuses on the first round and the top prospects, there is plenty of talent available in the later rounds. It’s just a matter of finding it.
A team’s draft class can be made by landing a diamond in the rough, a player who, for one reason or another, slips through the cracks for the first few rounds but ends up being a major contributor in the NFL. Sometimes it’s the result of shrewd scouting, sometimes it’s taking a chance on a player coming off an injury, sometimes it’s dumb luck. Hitting it big with a top-10 pick is all well and good, but who doesn’t love a bargain?
We’re here to salute the best late-round NFL draft finds from every Power 5 school. Our parameters are players who were chosen in Rounds 4-7 (Day 3 of the current draft format) since 1994, when the draft went to seven rounds. We asked our college football reporters to pick the best player, based on their NFL career, who fits that criteria from each Power 5 school. Here’s who they came up with.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
Pac-12 | SEC
ACC
Matt Hasselbeck, QB (1998, sixth round, 187th overall, Green Bay)
At 6-foot-4 with a strong arm, it’s easy to see how Hasselbeck might have been considered a serious prospect, but his relatively lackluster numbers at BC — 22 career TD passes, 26 interceptions — didn’t exactly scream superstar. So he landed with Green Bay, where he backed up Brett Favre before following coach Mike Holmgren to Seattle. He spent a decade as the Seahawks’ starter, made three Pro Bowls, and led the team to a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance in 2005. He retired in 2015 with 212 career TD passes. — David Hale
Grady Jarrett, DT (2015, fifth round, 137th overall, Atlanta)
Jarrett was overlooked coming out of high school. He was a two-star prospect who was supposedly undersized for an interior lineman, but nobody worked harder. Jarrett became a star at Clemson, but he was usually overshadowed by teammate Vic Beasley, who would be selected in the first round in 2015. Jarrett slid to the fifth round, and both players ended up with the Falcons. Beasley had some solid years in Atlanta, but it was Jarrett who became a Pro Bowler and one of the top defensive tackles in the NFL, with 112 career starts, 32.5 sacks and 420 tackles to date. — Hale
Patrick Mannelly, long snapper (1998, sixth round, 189th overall, Chicago)
This honor will almost certainly belong to Michael Carter II soon. The former Duke safety was a fifth-round pick by the Jets in 2021, and he has already started 13 games with two picks and two fumble recoveries. But Carter is still at the outset of his career, and it’s impossible to overlook the 16 years Mannelly spent in the NFL after being taken by the Bears in the sixth round in 1998. Hey, long snappers don’t get much attention until they mess up, but there’s no substitute for a good one, and Mannelly stayed in the league longer than any other Duke alum except Sonny Jorgensen. — Hale
Vince Williams, LB (2013, sixth round, 206th overall, Pittsburgh)
There aren’t many former Seminoles who truly fell below the radar when it came to NFL scouts, but Williams certainly wasn’t a hot name in the 2013 draft. He had been a leader and critical figure during the difficult transition from the Bobby Bowden era to the Jimbo Fisher era, and his work in the middle of the defense helped set the stage for 2013’s national title. Vince’s younger brother, Karlos, actually seemed to be the more prominent prospect. But Vince Williams landed in the perfect spot. Drafted by the Steelers, he started 11 games as a rookie and remains one of Pittsburgh’s defensive mainstays. — Hale
Dawan Landry, DB (2006, fifth round, 146th overall, Baltimore)
Georgia Tech actually has a lot of strong contenders for the honor of best late-round pick, from Dorsey Levens (fifth round in 1995) to Vance Walker (seventh round in 2006) to Darren Waller (sixth round in 2014) to Harrison Butker (seventh round in 2017). But Landry was the best of the bunch, spending nine years as a starter for the Ravens, Jaguars and Jets. He earned All-Pro honors as a rookie in 2006, when he picked off five passes, and finished his NFL career in 2014 with 13 career interceptions and three touchdowns. — Hale
William Gay, CB (2007, fifth round, 170th overall, Pittsburgh)
Gay was a pivotal player for the 2006 Orange Bowl champion Louisville Cardinals, but despite running a strong 4.48 40 in the combine, he fell to the fifth round of the 2007 draft, landing with the Steelers, who have a knack for finding late-round talent. Gay went on to play 10 seasons with Pittsburgh (plus one year with Arizona in between), finishing with 13 career interceptions and helping the Steelers win Super Bowl XLIII. — Hale
Chris Myers, OL (2005, sixth round, 200th overall, Denver)
No one goes to Miami to fly beneath the radar — at least, not in the early 2000s — so there aren’t many former Hurricanes who can claim the honor of being massively overlooked in the draft. Still, Myers didn’t draw much attention entering the 2005 draft after playing tackle as a senior. The Broncos drafted him and moved him to guard, but it wasn’t until he shifted to center and joined the Houston Texans that Myers found his niche. He started every game from 2007 through 2014, making two Pro Bowls, before retiring following his 10th NFL season. — Hale
J.R. Sweezy, OL (2012, seventh round, 225th pick, Seattle)
At NC State, Sweezy played on the defensive line and was considered a minor prospect. But Seahawks offensive line coach Tom Cable saw something in him and set up a private workout to test his footwork and strength to see if Sweezy might be able to make the change. It was a brilliant gamble. Seattle took Sweezy in the seventh round, but by the end of his rookie season, he was in the Seahawks’ starting lineup at guard. He was a full-time starter the next two seasons in Seattle, when the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl both years. He played four more seasons after that with Tampa Bay, Arizona and the Seahawks, starting 70 games before retiring in 2022. — Hale
Gerald Sensabaugh, DB (2005, fifth round, 157th overall, Jacksonville)
Sensabaugh’s college career began at East Tennessee State, where he was a three-year starter before transferring to North Carolina. As a senior with the Tar Heels, he racked up 78 tackles and three sacks. The Jaguars selected him in the fifth round, and he spent his first three seasons in Jacksonville as a part-time starter before blossoming in 2008 with 70 tackles and four interceptions. That landed him a free-agent deal with Dallas, where he spent the next four seasons as a regular contributor. He finished his career with 14 picks. — Hale
Damar Hamlin, S (2021, sixth round, 212th pick, Buffalo)
A four-year starter at Pitt, Hamlin was regularly among the ACC’s top defensive backs, but he largely flew beneath the radar among NFL scouts. The Bills selected him in the sixth round, and he largely served as a backup during his rookie season in 2021. By 2022, however, Hamlin had emerged as a burgeoning star, starting 13 games with six tackles for loss and 93 total tackles. Hamlin drew national attention when he collapsed on the field in December after a hit and nearly died. His inspirational story galvanized fans across the world, and he said Tuesday that he has been fully cleared to return to playing football. — Hale
Zaire Franklin, LB (2018, seventh round, 235th pick, Indianapolis)
Franklin never wowed the scouts in college. He was perhaps a step too slow, an inch too short. But based on what he did on the field, there was no doubt the guy could play. He topped 80 tackles in 2015, 2016 and 2017, and he finished his college career with 31.5 TFLs. Indianapolis saw him as a worthy project, and while his first three seasons in the NFL amounted to just four starts, the bet paid off big in 2021 when Franklin racked up 40 tackles in 11 starts. Last season, he was the full-time starter and finished fourth in the league with 167 total tackles. — Hale
Jason Snelling, RB (2007, seventh round, 244th pick, Atlanta)
OK, so Virginia doesn’t exactly have a rich history of draft-day steals, but Snelling did carve out a solid NFL career despite being among the last players selected in 2007. Despite the fullback position waning in value at the time, Snelling was an impactful runner at Virginia before being drafted by Atlanta, where he would spend his entire seven-year NFL career. Snelling was a versatile back whose best season came in 2009, when he ran for 613 yards and caught 30 passes for 259 yards, scoring five touchdowns. He finished his career with 1,420 rushing yards and 1,249 receiving yards. — Hale
Kam Chancellor, S (2010, fifth round, 133rd pick, Seattle)
At Virginia Tech, Chancellor flirted with playing both quarterback and corner before finding a home at rover, where he excelled in Bud Foster’s aggressive scheme. Still, it wasn’t enough to earn much love from draft experts. Chancellor fell to the fifth round, but he found the perfect fit in Seattle, which had also just drafted safety Earl Thomas. The duo would help establish the Legion of Boom, one of the best defenses in the NFL. Chancellor played 109 regular-season games and 14 more in the playoffs, picking off 15 passes, scoring twice and racking up more than 700 career tackles. — Hale
Desmond Clark, TE (1999, sixth round, 179th pick, Denver)
Clark was 6-3 and 230 pounds in college, but he was still primarily used at wideout, where, not surprisingly, he excelled in the red zone, catching eight TDs out of 59 grabs his senior year. Still, his size made him difficult to peg as a pro, and he slipped to the sixth round before Denver rolled the dice. In the NFL, he found a home at tight end, and — again, not surprisingly — he blossomed as a red zone target. He caught six touchdowns in 2001 — his final year in Denver — went to Miami for a year, then spent the final eight years of his 12-year career with the Bears. In all, he had 323 catches for 3,591 yards and 27 touchdowns. — Hale
Big 12
Andrew Billings, DT (2016, fourth round, 122nd overall, Cincinnati)
Billings shared the 2015 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award with end Emmanuel Ogbah and was named the league’s defensive lineman of the year. He was projected as a first-round pick after a strong combine performance but inexplicably fell to the fourth, where he was selected by the Bengals, with coach Marvin Lewis saying some teams were concerned about his height (6-1, at 311 pounds). He missed his rookie year with a knee injury and opted out of the 2020 season, but he has started 51 games over his other five NFL seasons. A valued run-stopper, Billings signed with the Chicago Bears in March. — Dave Wilson
Brett Keisel, DE (2002, seventh round, 242nd overall, Pittsburgh)
Keisel wasn’t even the most sought-after BYU defensive end in his draft — those honors went to Ryan Denney — but his size and stats were decent enough for the Steelers to take a flier on him. After a few years as a special teamer, he found his way into the lineup by 2006, and he was in the Pro Bowl by 2010. — Bill Connelly
Jason Kelce, C (2011, sixth round, 191st overall, Philadelphia)
A former walk-on running back, Kelce weighed in at just 280 pounds at the combine — far from NFL size — but he ran a 4.89 in the 40, and the Eagles took a chance on him. Five first-team All-Pro seasons and a Super Bowl later, it seems to have worked out pretty well for everyone involved. — Connelly
Elandon Roberts, LB (2016, sixth round, 214th overall, New England)
Case Keenum has had a long NFL career, but he was undrafted, so we can’t use him. Roberts, a 5-11, 234-pound inside linebacker, started his career at Morgan State, transferred to Houston and led the country in solo tackles in 2015 with 88 (of his 142 total tackles). He was a late draft find by the Patriots, starting five games his rookie season, then starting 28 more over the next three seasons in New England at multiple linebacker positions. He even filled in at fullback in 2019, catching a 38-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady against Miami. He then signed with the Dolphins and was a starter the past three seasons at linebacker. He signed a two-year contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers last month. — Wilson
Ahtyba Rubin, NT (2008, sixth round, 190th overall, Cleveland)
At 6-2, 315 pounds, Rubin played offensive line his sophomore year in junior college, then flipped to defensive line at Iowa State. He emerged as an NFL prospect, arrived in Cleveland as a sixth-round pick and broke through as a starter after Shaun Rogers got injured. He ended up starting 107 games in 11 years in the NFL, mostly with the Browns, until starting for two seasons in 2015 and ’16 with Seattle, finishing with 428 tackles and 15 sacks. — Wilson
Justin Hartwig, C (2002, sixth round, 187th overall, Tennessee)
Hartwig was the prototypical “standout on a bad offense” for much of his time at KU, earning all-conference votes for teams that never topped 70th in scoring offense. He was a starter for six of his eight NFL seasons, starting out with Tennessee and eventually winning a Super Bowl with Pittsburgh. — Connelly
Darren Sproles, RB (2005, fourth round, 130th overall, San Diego)
Sproles rushed for 4,769 yards and 44 touchdowns during three standout seasons in Manhattan. He was an absolute star. What was the holdup? Size, of course: He measured 5-foot-6, 187 pounds. Just too small for the pros, right? Wrong. He produced 8,392 yards from scrimmage with nine career return touchdowns over a 15-year career. — Connelly
Kelly Gregg, NT (1999, sixth round, 173rd overall, Cincinnati)
At 6-foot, 320-pounds, Gregg was a force at Oklahoma in his senior year with 117 tackles and 23 tackles for loss, still an OU record. But the NFL wasn’t impressed with his measurables. He was drafted by Cincinnati but waived, then spent time on the Bengals’ practice squad, signed with Philly and was waived, signed to Baltimore’s practice squad and played in NFL Europe. He became the Ravens’ starting nose tackle after Tony Siragusa left and ended up starting for eight years for Baltimore and one with Kansas City, retiring in 2011. Pro Football Focus named him to its All-Pro second team in 2009. — Wilson
Antonio Smith, DE (2004, fifth round, 135th overall, Arizona)
A junior college transfer who battled injuries throughout his college career, Smith didn’t enjoy massive college production and wasn’t at full speed during the draft workout process. His health mostly held up in the pros, though: He recorded 47.5 sacks over 13 seasons and made a Pro Bowl appearance in 2011 with the Texans. — Connelly
Marcus Cannon, OT (2011, fifth round, 138th overall, New England)
Cannon was a highly regarded tackle prospect who started three years at TCU and didn’t give up a sack his senior season at left tackle blocking for Andy Dalton. The 6-5, 358-pounder was shocked to test positive for non-Hodgkin lymphoma in a physical before the 2011 combine. New England drafted him in the fifth round and placed him on the injured list while he went through chemotherapy. Cannon has started 73 games and appeared in 120 total, winning three Super Bowls with the great Patriots teams from 2011 to 2019 and being named second-team All-Pro in 2016. He did not play in 2020 during the pandemic, started four games for the Texans in 2021, then started two games at right tackle last year after returning to New England. — Wilson
Brian Robison, DE (2007, fourth round, 102nd overall, Minnesota)
Robison started 37 games at Texas, including on the Longhorns’ national title team in 2005, and was also a star in the shot put, winning a Big 12 title. At 6-3, 260, he ran a 4.74 at the combine and was drafted to back up Jared Allen. But he ended up starting five games his rookie year and made the NFL’s all-rookie team. Robison became a fan favorite in Minnesota, starting 103 games and playing in 170. He racked up 60 sacks, including 25.5 in his first three years as a full-time starter, over 11 years with the Vikings. — Wilson
Zach Thomas, LB (1996, fifth round, 154th overall, Miami)
Thomas, the Red Raiders’ best pro before Patrick Mahomes, was the steal of the 1996 draft. Despite a stellar career at Texas Tech, where he was a first-team All-American his senior year, NFL scouts weren’t in on Thomas, with the consensus being he was too small (5-11, 233 pounds), too slow and not athletic enough (he had a 4.85 40 and 28.5-inch vertical jump at the combine). But he quickly shot up the Dolphins depth chart and started as a rookie from Week 1. He had at least 100 tackles each of the first 11 years of his NFL career, finishing with 1,734, and was a five-time first-team All-Pro. — Wilson
Brandon Marshall, WR (2006, fourth round, 119th overall, Denver)
Marshall was a better athlete than receiver for much of his college career, but after accumulating 38 catches in three seasons, he erupted for 1,195 yards as a senior. Combined with his 6-4, 229-pound measurements and 4.53 speed, he landed a spot on the Broncos. From 2007 to ’15, he ripped off a run of eight 1,000-yard seasons in nine years. — Connelly
Marc Bulger, QB (2000, sixth round, 168th overall, New Orleans)
Bulger threw for 6,072 yards and 45 touchdowns during two standout years at West Virginia, but he battled injuries during his senior season, then measured in at only 6-1, 208 pounds at the combine. The Saints drafted him, but his first start came with the Rams, his third team, in 2002. He ended up throwing for 22,814 yards over eight NFL seasons. — Connelly
Big Ten
David Diehl, OL (2003, fifth round, 160th overall, New York Giants)
Diehl was a second-team All-Big Ten selection as a senior in 2002. A year before, he was part of an Illinois team that won the Big Ten. After the Giants took him in the fifth round, he quickly became a stalwart on an offensive line that helped Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin & Co. win a pair of Super Bowls. Diehl, a second-team All-Pro selection in 2008, started 156 of the 160 games he played in. — Blake Baumgartner
Chris Liwienski, OL (1998, seventh round, 207th overall, Detroit)
Liwienski was a durable offensive tackle for the Hoosiers throughout his career. He was taken by the Lions in the 1998 draft and eventually played for the Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins and Jaguars in a 10-year career. — Tom VanHaaren
George Kittle, TE (2017, fifth round, 146th overall, San Francisco)
Kittle battled for extended playing time throughout his tenure in Iowa City, thanks to a deep tight end room. In his final two seasons as a Hawkeye (2015 and ’16), he tallied 42 catches for 604 yards and 10 touchdowns. The 49ers were fortunate enough to jump on him in the fifth round of the 2017 draft, and he has rewarded them handsomely. A four-time Pro Bowler and an All-Pro selection in 2019, Kittle has 395 receptions for 5,254 yards and 31 touchdowns in his career. — Baumgartner
Stefon Diggs, WR (2015, fifth round, 146th overall, Minnesota)
In three seasons playing for the Terrapins, Diggs accumulated 2,277 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was a second-team All-Big Ten selection for the 2014 season after leading the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns. Since being drafted by the Vikings in 2015, Diggs has been an All-Pro twice, a three-time Pro Bowler and a big part of the Buffalo Bills offense. — VanHaaren
Kirk Cousins, QB (2012, fourth round, 102nd overall, Washington)
Cousins led the Spartans to a share of the Big Ten title in 2010 and an appearance in the inaugural Big Ten championship game in 2011, and left East Lansing as one of the better quarterbacks in program history (9,131 passing yards, 66 TDs). The second quarterback taken by Washington in 2012 behind Robert Griffin III in the first round, Cousins — a four-time Pro Bowler — established himself as a top-level NFL quarterback with both Washington (2012-17) and the Vikings (2018-present), with 37,140 passing yards and 252 touchdown passes in his career. — Baumgartner
Tom Brady, QB (2000, sixth round, 199th overall, New England)
The patron saint of late-round draft finds. After splitting playing time with Drew Henson, Brady eventually won out and started during the 1998 and 1999 seasons, leading the Wolverines to a Big Ten title in 1998. In those two seasons, he combined for 30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. After a famously unimpressive combine, Brady certainly impressed with the Patriots and Buccaneers, retiring with seven Super Bowl rings and a rewritten NFL record book. — Baumgartner
Marion Barber, RB (2005, fourth round, 109th overall, Dallas)
Barber ranks No. 10 all time at Minnesota for single-season rushing yards, No. 2 for rushing touchdowns in a season, No. 5 in career rushing yards and No. 2 in career rushing touchdowns. He was taken in the fourth round by the Cowboys and earned the nickname Marion the Barbarian for his physical running style. He had more than 50 rushing touchdowns in his six-year career with the Cowboys and Bears. — VanHaaren
Rex Burkhead, RB (2013, sixth round, 190th overall, Cincinnati)
Burkhead was one of six freshmen to see playing time during the 2009 season at Nebraska. He had 346 yards and three touchdowns in his first season and followed that up with 951 yards and seven touchdowns as a sophomore. He was selected by Cincinnati in the 2013 draft and eventually played for the Patriots and Texans as well. He won a Super Bowl with the Patriots and finished his career with 1,908 yards and 17 touchdowns. — VanHaaren
Zach Strief, OL (2006, seventh round, 210th overall, New Orleans)
Strief was a right tackle at Northwestern and was a two-time All-Big Ten player for the Wildcats. He was selected by the Saints in the seventh round and went on to win a Super Bowl and be named a first-team All-Pro player in 2013 over 12 seasons in New Orleans. — VanHaaren
Corey Linsley, OL (2014, fifth round, 161st overall, Green Bay)
Linsley started as the Buckeyes’ center during his final two seasons (2012 and ’13) after making the move over from right guard. The Packers tabbed him with a fifth-round selection, and his time both in Green Bay and with the Chargers, whom he signed with as a free agent in 2021, has been fruitful. In his last year in Green Bay, Linsley was a first-team All-Pro before being named a second-team All-Pro during his first year in Los Angeles in 2021. — Baumgartner
Adrian Amos, S (2015, fifth round, 142nd overall, Chicago)
Amos was a three-year starter during his time in Happy Valley, finishing with a career-high three interceptions as a senior in 2014. He recorded at least 42 tackles in each of his final three seasons at Penn State. The Bears selected him in the fifth round in 2015, and he has carved out a nice career (636 total tackles, 6 sacks, 48 passes defended and 10 interceptions) through eight seasons with the Bears (2015-18) and Packers (2019-22). — Baumgartner
Rob Ninkovich, LB/DE (2006, fifth round, 135th overall, New Orleans)
Ninkovich won a national championship at Joliet Junior College before transferring to Purdue. He had 8 sacks, 2 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles his senior season and was taken by the Saints in the 2006 draft. He would play for three teams in the NFL and won two Super Bowls with the New England Patriots. — VanHaaren
Isiah Pacheco, RB (2022, seventh round, 251st overall, Kansas City)
Pacheco started 12 games in his final season at Rutgers and accumulated 2,442 yards and 18 touchdowns in his four-year career. He was selected by the Chiefs in the seventh round and became an impact player on Kansas City’s Super Bowl-winning offense. Pacheco ran for 830 yards and five touchdowns during the regular season and had 197 yards and one touchdown during the playoffs. — VanHaaren
Owen Daniels, TE (2006, fourth round, 98th pick, Houston)
Daniels transitioned from quarterback to tight end after a pair of ACL tears — one as a senior in high school and one during his redshirt sophomore year at Wisconsin. He ended up becoming a productive player, hauling in 62 passes for 852 yards and eight touchdowns over his final three years in Madison. Drafted by Houston in 2006, he recorded 479 catches for 5,661 receiving yards and 36 touchdowns during a 10-year career that saw him play for the Texans, Ravens and Broncos, ending his career with a victory in Super Bowl 50. — Baumgartner
Pac-12
Lawrence Guy, DT (2011, seventh round, 233rd overall, Green Bay)
Guy has bounced around the league a bit since coming into it in 2011, but over the course of his career, he’s started 110 games, accounting for 255 solo tackles, 17 sacks and 38 tackles for loss. Since 2017, Guy has been a fixture of the Patriots’ defensive line and helped New England on its way to its Super Bowl win in 2018. Not bad for a seventh-round pick. — Paolo Uggetti
Nick Folk, K (2007, sixth round, 178th overall, Dallas)
Folk, who made 63% of his field goal attempts at Arizona, was a sixth-round gem for not just the team that drafted him (the Cowboys, for whom he was selected to the Pro Bowl in his rookie year) but also the Jets (he’s the team’s all-time leading scorer) and, most recently, the Patriots, for whom he had a streak of 64 straight field goals from inside 50 yards. In 2021, Folk was the NFL’s leading scorer as well. — Uggetti
Marvin Jones, WR (2012, fifth round, 166th overall, Cincinnati)
After a solid, if unspectacular, four-year career in Berkeley, Jones’ modest production (156 catches in four seasons) was the likely reason he wasn’t drafted earlier. Since entering the NFL, he has been one of the league’s most consistent receivers with more than 500 yards receiving in each of the past eight seasons. — Kyle Bonagura
David Bakhtiari, OT (2013, fourth round, 109th overall, Green Bay)
After a stout three-year career at struggling Colorado, Bakhtiari went on to find the perfect NFL home in Green Bay. The California native immediately became a staple of the Packers’ offensive line on his way to three Pro Bowl selections and two first-team All-Pro selections. Bakhtiari started every game at left tackle during his rookie season, becoming the first rookie to do so in Green Bay since 1978 and the only NFL rookie to start every game that season at left tackle. — Uggetti
Terrance Mitchell, CB (2014, seventh round, 254th overall, Dallas)
Before declaring for the draft, Mitchell received an unfavorable evaluation from the NFL, so he knew that being an early pick after starting 38 games at Oregon was unlikely. Still, he bet on himself, and nearly 10 years later, he’s still collecting an NFL paycheck. — Bonagura
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR (2001, seventh round, 204th overall, Cincinnati)
That Houshmandzadeh got drafted so late wasn’t a surprise considering he started just one season at Oregon State, where he was overshadowed by Chad Johnson. But he went on to have a standout 10-year career, which included a Pro Bowl appearance in 2007, when he tied for the league lead in receptions. — Bonagura
Richard Sherman, CB (2011, fifth round, 154th overall, Seattle)
Sherman’s pre-draft evaluations were all over the board, likely due to the fact he switched from receiver to corner midway through his college career. In the NFL, he blossomed into one of the best corners in league history, earning All-Pro honors five times in an 11-year career. — Bonagura
Matthew Slater, WR (2008, fifth round, 153rd overall, New England)
Not many NFL players can have a 15-year career, tally 10 Pro Bowl nods, two All-Pro selections and three Super Bowls. That’s exactly what Slater has done. After starting off at UCLA as a wide receiver, Slater switched to defensive back his second year at the school and proceeded to account for 34 total tackles and one sack. But after finding a niche and a role on Bill Belichick’s team, Slater thrived as a Swiss Army knife, excelling on special teams while contributing on both defense and offense at various points throughout his career. — Uggetti
Everson Griffen, DE (2010, fourth round, 100th overall, Minnesota)
The Trojans have had their fair share of both elite top draft picks and late-round finds, but Griffen might be the best of the bunch. After spending three years at USC and totaling 84 tackles, 21 tackles for loss and 18 sacks as well as three forced fumbles, Griffen slipped to the fourth round, where the Vikings were happy to take him. Griffen has since outplayed his selection by a mile, amassing nearly 400 tackles, 86 sacks and 13 forced fumbles over the course of 12 seasons. — Uggetti
Mike Anderson, RB (2000, sixth round, 189th overall, Denver)
Anderson had a relatively short career in the NFL — seven seasons — but his introduction to the league was a memorable one. After being selected in the sixth round by Denver, Anderson rushed for 1,487 yards that year, averaging 5 yards per carry and adding 15 touchdowns. That was good enough to garner the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Anderson would cross the 1,000-yard threshold only once more in his career. — Uggetti
Dashon Goldson, S (2007, fourth round, 126th overall, San Francisco)
Goldson was an All-Pac-12 honorable mention selection in 2006 after a season hampered by a high ankle sprain. During a 10-year NFL career, he was a two-time Pro Bowler and a first-team All-Pro in 2012. — Bonagura
Erik Coleman, S (2004, fifth round, 143rd overall, New York Jets)
Coleman was an integral part of WSU’s three straight 10-win seasons (2001 through 2003) before being drafted by the Jets. In New York, he quickly broke into the starting lineup and a nine-year career followed. — Bonagura
SEC
Eddie Jackson, S (2017, fourth round, 112th overall pick, Chicago)
A broken leg limited Jackson’s senior season to eight games and meant he couldn’t participate in pre-draft drills. But the former cornerback-turned-safety had serious ball skills with six interceptions as a junior, two of which he took back for touchdowns. He made the Pro Bowl in 2018 and 2019 and was on track to return to the event last year before an injury ended his season. — Alex Scarborough
Peyton Hillis, RB (2008, seventh round, 227th overall pick, Denver)
Maybe he was a flash in the pan, a one-year wonder. But when you appear on the cover of EA Sports’ Madden video game, you’ve done something special. And when you’ve done it as a seventh-round pick who was once buried on the depth chart in college behind Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, you’ve done something downright incredible. — Scarborough
Stephen Davis, RB (1996, fourth round, 102nd overall pick, Washington)
Davis wasn’t an every-down back in college, he ran more upright than some scouts might like and he ran a solid but not spectacular 4.54-second 40-yard dash. Maybe that’s why he fell out of the first three rounds. He started his NFL career at Washington as a fullback before finally getting the starting nod at running back during his fourth season. He led the league with 1,405 yards that season, and finished his career with 8,052 yards and three selections to the Pro Bowl. — Scarborough
Alex Brown, DE (2002, fourth round, 104th overall, Chicago)
Being the most prolific pass-rusher in Florida history (Brown holds the school record for the most sacks in a season with 13 and the most in a career with 33), you’d think Brown would at worst go in the first three rounds of the draft. But as Brown himself would say, it all worked out in the end, as he played nine years for the Chicago Bears and had 45.5 sacks, forced 17 fumbles — recovering 12 — and even finished sixth in the AP Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2005. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Terrell Davis, RB (1995, sixth round, 196th overall, Denver)
Davis’ reputation for being injury-prone hurt his draft stock. After having 167 carries and 824 yards in his second year at Georgia (he transferred from Long Beach State), he had just 97 carries in his final year with 445 yards and six touchdowns. However, taking a chance on Davis paid off for the Broncos. He had three consecutive All-Pro seasons, including an NFL MVP season in 1998 when he rushed for 2,008 yards. Denver won a pair of Super Bowl titles along the way. — Lyles Jr.
Za’Darius Smith, OLB (2015, fourth round, 122nd overall, Baltimore)
It appears the big criticism of Smith heading into the draft was that he had no more room to grow. His draft profile on the NFL’s website said that his “body is likely maxed out” and that he scored low with production and athleticism. However, Smith was productive enough to make three Pro Bowls over the course of his NFL career, two with the Packers and one last season with the Vikings. — Lyles Jr.
Kyle Williams, DT (2006, fifth round, 134th overall pick, Buffalo)
Williams wasn’t among the first nine defensive tackles taken in the 2006 draft. He wasn’t even the first defensive tackle taken by the Buffalo Bills. Maybe it was because he was only 6-foot-1 that he slid in the draft, but he quickly rose on the depth chart in New York and became a starter as a rookie, racking up 53 tackles in 16 games. By the time he retired in 2018, he had been selected to six Pro Bowls and logged 610 career tackles and 48.5 sacks, all with the Bills. — Scarborough
Dak Prescott, QB (2016, fourth round, 135th overall pick, Dallas)
If not for a DUI arrest 46 days before the draft — he ultimately was found not guilty — Prescott might never have fallen into the lap of the Cowboys. Arguably the greatest player in Mississippi State history, he stepped in for an injured Tony Romo and was an immediate success, winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. A two-time Pro Bowler, he signed a four-year, $160 million contract in 2021. — Scarborough
Justin Gage, WR (2003, fifth round, 143rd overall, Chicago)
There was no questioning Gage’s speed and agility going into the draft. He left Missouri as the school’s all-time leading receiver after moving from quarterback to wide receiver, and was a part of Missouri’s 2002 Elite Eight run in basketball. While drafted by the Bears, Gage had his most productive seasons with Tennessee, where he led the Titans in catches and yards in 2007. — Lyles Jr.
DJ Jones, DT (2017, sixth round, 198th overall pick, San Francisco)
Jones was part of a deep rotation with the Rebels and never developed into a top-flight pass-rusher, so it’s no wonder he fell to the San Francisco 49ers in the sixth round. But each year he proved himself, especially in defending the run — to the point that when he hit free agency a year ago, he commanded a three-year, $30 million deal from the Broncos. — Scarborough
Captain Munnerlyn, CB (2009, seventh round, 216th overall, Carolina)
Because of durability concerns and coming out a year early, Munnerlyn didn’t go as high as he might have if he had stayed in school for another year. But it all worked out fine for the Panthers, as he set the franchise record for interception-return touchdowns with five. — Lyles Jr.
Malik Jackson, DT (2012, fifth round, 137th overall, Denver)
The 27th defensive lineman taken in the 2012 NFL draft, Malik Jackson started his college career at USC during the end of the Pete Carroll era before transferring to Tennessee during the early Derek Dooley years. While the Vols didn’t command much positive attention then, a 4.91-second 40-yard dash at the combine did for Jackson, and he ended up being drafted a round earlier than many projected. — Lyles Jr.
Shane Lechler, P (2000, fifth round, 142nd overall pick, Oakland)
It’s tempting to claim Dante Hall here. He made two Pro Bowls and played in the NFL for nine seasons. Lechler, on the other hand, made seven Pro Bowls, was a nine-time All-Pro and a member of the NFL All-Decade Team for the 2000s and the 2010s. So don’t give me the whole “but he’s a punter” criticism. He had an incredible career. — Scarborough
Hunter Hillenmeyer, LB (2003, sixth round, 166th overall, Green Bay)
In 2002, Hillenmeyer finished second in the nation with 168 tackles for the Commodores. But critics said he lacked the top-end speed to be a productive player at the next level. However, he was productive enough to play eight seasons with the Bears, accumulating 300 solo tackles, 6 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions in 101 games over 69 starts. — Lyles Jr.
SEATTLE — Jorge Polanco hit a game-ending single in the 15th inning, and the Seattle Mariners advanced to the American League Championship Series by outlasting the Detroit Tigers for a 3-2 victory Friday night.
At 4 hours, 58 minutes, it was the longest winner-take-all postseason game in baseball history and featured 15 pitchers — eight for the Mariners and seven for the Tigers.
With one out and the bases loaded, Polanco drove in J.P. Crawford with a liner to right off Tommy Kahnle. Crawford hit a leadoff single, Randy Arozarena was hit by a pitch and Julio Rodriguez was intentionally walked before Polanco’s big swing on the 472nd pitch of an epic Game 5 in a tightly contested division series.
The Mariners left 12 runners on base and still advanced to the ALCS for the first time since 2001. Next up is a matchup with the AL East champion Blue Jays, beginning Sunday night in Toronto.
“We never give up,” Polanco said. “We just keep fighting. It doesn’t matter how many innings we play. We just stay ready and wait for the moment. It’s going to come. It was my time.”
Luis Castillo pitched 1⅓ innings for the win in his first major league relief appearance. Logan Gilbert, another member of Seattle’s rotation, worked two scoreless innings in his first relief outing since his college days at Stetson University in 2017.
“It was such a tough night,” Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh said. “Everyone put their other stuff aside and did everything for the team, including Logan and Luis.”
Detroit wasted a stellar performance by Tarik Skubal, who struck out 13 while pitching six innings of one-run ball. The Tigers went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left 10 on base.
“We had an incredible game today that — unfortunately, somebody had to lose, and that somebody was us, and it hurts,” manager A.J. Hinch said.
Kerry Carpenter put Detroit in front when he hit a two-run homer off Gabe Speier in the sixth inning. Carpenter had four hits and walked twice, becoming the first player to reach five times and hit a home run in a winner-take-all postseason game since Babe Ruth in 1926.
The Mariners tied it at 2 on Leo Rivas‘ pinch-hit single off Tyler Holton in the seventh. Rivas celebrated his 28th birthday with his first postseason hit.
“He was up to the task tonight,” Seattle manager Dan Wilson said. “It was a huge hit.”
Friday’s win was the Mariners’ first series-clinching victory in extra innings since Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS, a 6-5 victory in 11 innings over the Yankees.
The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.
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Bill Connelly
Are you a fan of the old reliable or new weirdness? Do you go for a good, old-fashioned corny dog at the State Fair of Texas or do you seek out the new oddity, like this year’s Ox’cellent Cornbread Sliders or Deep Fried Carbonara?
Regardless of your taste, Week 7 of the college football season has you covered. If you like a nice blue-blood helmet game, the Red River Rivalry pits the preseason No. 1 team (Texas) against the current No. 6 (Oklahoma). Michigan heads to USC for a Rose Bowl-adjacent battle. Georgia plays Auburn! Florida plays Texas A&M! Plenty of big-name games everywhere you look!
The biggest game of the week, however, is Indiana at Oregon. Weird! Alabama at Missouri might be No. 2, and it’s possible that no game has more direct College Football Playoff implications than USF’s Friday evening visit to North Texas. An ambitious college football geek should head up to Denton before Red River!
Week 7 gives us both what we think we need and what we really, really want instead. Something for everyone. Here’s everything you need to know about another loaded weekend.
All times are Eastern; games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Fun new dishes
Helmet games are great. It’s nice heading into a given season with certain landmarks like OU-Texas that you know will draw attention. But there’s a buzz that comes with games of surprising gravitas, and three conferences will give us one of those this week. With assistance from the new food items at this year’s State Fair of Texas, let’s lean into all three.
The Lobster Three Ways of the Week (surprisingly fancy!)
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon and Dan Lanning have grown accustomed to this “big game” thing. This will be the eighth time the fourth-year head coach has led the Ducks into a top-10 vs. top-10 battle. They’re 4-3 in such games so far, with all the losses to eventual CFP finalists. Indiana, meanwhile, has played four such games ever. Half of them happened last season, and the next one the Hoosiers win will be the first. In terms of known gravitas, we know who has the advantage.
Granted, Oregon’s win at Penn State two weeks ago looks a little different after the Nittany Lions’ loss at winless UCLA, but it seemed to give us a pretty accurate impression of the Ducks: They’re super efficient with quarterback and current No. 2 Heisman betting favorite Dante Moore leading the show on offense, but they’re not incredibly explosive. The defense combines three-and-outs — they’ve forced them on 50.9% of possessions, third in the FBS — with elite big-play prevention. I mean, of course this is an awesome team: It has won 19 of 20 games!
The spotlight, then, is on Indiana. Can the Hoosiers perform better than they did at Ohio State (38-15 loss) or Notre Dame (27-17) last year? They haven’t really given us any reason to doubt them in 2025: They’re third in SP+; they’re first in success rate* on offense and second on defense; and they beat a current top-20 team (otherwise-unbeaten No. 17 Illinois) by 53 points three weeks ago.
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs.)
The offense generates most of the headlines, with quarterback and No. 7 Heisman betting favorite Fernando Mendoza throwing to Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. and handing off to Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. The Hoosiers have a lot of ways to stay on schedule, and they’ve done it better than anyone else in the sport thus far.
Aside from the occasional big-gainer to Cooper, explosiveness isn’t necessarily a strength here, and the two teams that kept the big plays tamped down — Old Dominion and Iowa — held them to 23.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play.
The Hoosiers’ defense is the star of the show, though. Illinois scored 10 points at 3.6 yards per play against Indiana but has averaged 42.4 points and 7.0 yards per play against everyone else. Everywhere you look, Indiana has multiple stars, with ends Kellan Wyatt, Mikail Kamara and Stephen Daley; linebackers Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy; and safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell. Plus star corner D’Angelo Ponds is expected to play after missing time with injury.
The Big Stage Game is the only test Indiana didn’t pass last year, but the Hoosiers get another chance to show out Saturday. We know Oregon will.
Current line: Ducks -7.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.2 | FPI projection: Ducks by 5.2
The Meat Lovers Crunch Wrap Calzone of the Week (might be new and different, might taste like a typical calzone)
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri (noon, ABC)
On the first Monday night of the 1975 season, Missouri went down to Birmingham and pummeled No. 2 Alabama, 20-7. Bama had won 22 straight regular-season games, but led by tailback Tony Galbreath, the Tigers rushed for 206 yards to Bama’s 31 and made a 20-0 halftime lead hold up with surprising ease. “They ran up and down the field as though they were playing a barber’s college,” Alabama coach Bear Bryant said. “They ate us on the line of scrimmage.”
The win assured Mizzou of something rare: a series lead on the Tide. The Tigers were 2-1 all time against Bama when they joined the SEC in 2012. They’re now 2-6. In five meetings as SEC mates, Bama has swept by an average score of 39-10. But Saturday will be the Tigers’ best shot at a win in 50 years.
Alabama has rebounded from a dismal Week 1 loss to Florida State, winning four straight and beating ranked opponents in the last two weeks. Quarterback Ty Simpson leads my Heisman horse race, and an inefficient run game has improved since Jam Miller‘s return from injury. But running isn’t how you beat the Mizzou defense. In two games against power-conference opponents (Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers have allowed opposing running backs to average just 1.3 yards per carry, but they also gave up 10 completions of at least 20 yards. The Tigers have the best pass rush the Tide have faced, but if they can’t pressure Simpson, the dynamite receiver trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton (combined: 192.8 yards per game, 15.1 per catch) will do damage.
A Missouri win Saturday might end up looking a lot like the 1975 game, with the Tigers controlling the ground game (and the YAC battle) on offense and defense. So far, tackling Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy has been just about the hardest task in college football. Hardy leads the nation with 730 rushing yards, and 460 of those have come after contact.
Hardy has had more carries of more than 25 yards (five) than carries with lost yardage (four), and 212-pound backup Jamal Roberts averages even more yards per carry (7.3) than Hardy (7.1).
Mizzou boasts plenty of physicality, but aside from occasional deep shots to receiver Marquis Johnson, this offense is based far more around efficiency than explosiveness. In the last couple of Bama games, however, it’s been chunk plays or nothing against the efficient Tide. Bama records almost no tackles for loss or sacks, but sacks are the primary way of stopping Missouri: The Tigers rank 95th in sack rate allowed. When upright, Beau Pribula completes 76% of his passes, keeps the chains moving and forces teams to endure further doses of Hardy and Roberts.
Current line: Bama -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 1.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 3.4
The Pop Rocks Margarita of the Week (let’s get silly and loud)
No. 24 USF at North Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
The odds are in the American Conference’s favor at the moment. The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives six teams from the Group of 5 a 7% or greater chance of reaching the CFP, and four of those teams — Memphis (39.5%), North Texas (14.5%), USF (10.4%) and Tulane (7.7%) — are from the American. Spectacularly explosive Old Dominion (20.1%) and unbeaten UNLV (8.6%) could still take the mantle, but for now it’s the American’s show. And its No. 2 and No. 3 contenders face off Friday night before the first sellout crowd ever at DATCU Stadium.
USF has the résumé mid-majors dream of. After walloping last year’s G5 representative, Boise State, in Week 1, the Bulls took down Florida the next week. They couldn’t offer much resistance against Miami, but they’ve beaten two overwhelmed opponents by a combined 117-40 since. And their big-play capabilities are ridiculous, especially those of receivers Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton (combined: 661 yards at 20.0 per catch). There’s a major all-or-nothing component to this offense — it’s 95th in success rate but fifth in yards per successful play — but the “all”s are spectacular. Defensively, it’s turnovers or bust: The Bulls have forced 11 of them. They can create some negative run plays, too, but their statistical profile is otherwise pretty underwhelming.
North Texas has its best defense in quite a while — potentially faint praise considering the Mean Green haven’t ranked higher than 105th in defensive SP+ since 2018 — but the offense is the show. It ranks ninth in points per drive with heavy efficiency, almost no turnovers (three in five games) and excellent red zone execution (10th in red zone TD rate). Backs Makenzie McGill II and Caleb Hawkins average 6.0 yards per carry over 21 carries per game, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker is completing 68% of his passes with no picks and almost no sacks. Even when they’re behind schedule, they’re not really behind schedule because Mestemaker catches them up. North Texas has scored at least 33 points in every game and has allowed more than 30 just once. That’s a pretty good combination, though USF is comfortably the best team the Mean Green have played to date.
Current line: UNT -1.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 6.6 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.8
Reliable old standbys
The biggest games of the week might be a little strange and experimental, but there are plenty of comforting matchups to assure that you keep your bearings. I mean, does college football get any more reliable than OU vs. Texas, Georgia vs. Auburn or Ohio State vs. a solid-but-probably-not-good-enough Big Ten foe?
The Corny Dog of the Week (safe, reliable state fair fare)
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Red River is both one of the most even and one of the most momentum-based rivalries you’ll see. For Texas to win for the third time in four years, the Longhorns will have to endure a strange matchup of excellent defenses and incomplete offenses.
Points per drive
Texas: 63rd on offense, fifth on defense
Oklahoma: 48th on offense, second on defense
OU quarterback John Mateer is racing to return from recent hand surgery; he was listed as probable on this week’s initial injury report, which caused the betting line to move swiftly toward the Sooners. Backup Michael Hawkins Jr. was fine against an admittedly almost Division II-worthy Kent State defense last week, but even with Mateer healthy, OU has gone unbeaten because of its defense.
Texas’ Arch Manning has yet to play well against an SP+ top-100 defense, which is pretty scary considering OU’s currently ranks second. Manning has flashed moments of excellence with his legs, but he took six sacks against Florida last week, and his numbers when pressured are pretty dismal.
Florida’s pass rush ranks 75th in sack rate; Oklahoma’s ranks first. We can talk about the Sooners’ disappointing run game and whether either Mateer or Hawkins can find enough success against a strong Texas defense. But until Texas proves it can actually keep pressure off Manning — or Manning proves he can perform well under duress — I’m not sure anything else matters.
Current line: OU -1.5 (flipped from Texas -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 7.6 | FPI projection: Texas by 2.8
The Fried Mac ‘n’ Cheese Bites of the Week (intriguing at first, predictable in the end)
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois (noon, Fox)
Ohio State’s mission is to win, not to entertain. The Buckeyes have won their last three games by an average of 34-6, and their defense, first in SP+ last season, has grown even more suffocating. They rank first in points allowed per drive, and the next red zone touchdown they allow will be the first all year.
Illinois’ offense is hot, at least. Since their humiliation against Indiana, the Illini have responded with near perfection: Luke Altmyer has completed 81% of his passes for 718 yards in two games, with wideouts Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon doing loads of damage. Granted, Washington ranked first nationally in points per drive before playing Ohio State and managed just six points. But if Illinois can do just enough damage that OSU quarterback Julian Sayin has to force the issue a bit, we could learn something useful about the Buckeyes.
Ohio State’s run game isn’t nearly as dangerous as usual, but Sayin is completing 80% of his passes and never has to take any risks. Knowing the other team will never score, the Buckeyes can just wait opponents out, and eventually receivers Jeremiah Smith and/or Carnell Tate will break through and ice the game.
Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 10.7
The Flamin’ Hot Cheetos Nachos of the Week (relatively predictable but could upset your stomach)
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC)
It’s danger time on the Plains. Auburn has lost 13 of 15 to Georgia and heads into this one having lost two in a row overall. The Tigers were competitive at both Oklahoma and Texas A&M because of strong defense but failed to even slightly protect Jackson Arnold (or persuade him to get the damn ball out of his hands faster). He was sacked 14 times in the two games, and Auburn scored a total of 27 points. Strangely, Georgia might offer a reprieve: The Dawgs rank just 115th in sack rate and 89th in yards allowed per dropback. They dominate against the run, but this might be Kirby Smart’s worst pass defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator.
Georgia’s offense moves efficiently but doesn’t make loads of big plays. The run game has been decent, but the Dawgs could be without both starting tackles — Monroe Freeling (ankle) and Micah Morris (back) are listed as questionable. Arnold might simply be broken, but it wouldn’t take too many decent pass plays to make this one uncomfortable for a Georgia team that really doesn’t want to suffer Loss No. 2 this early.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.6 | FPI projection: UGA by 3.5
The Chopped Brisket Sandwich of the Week (beefy but lacking pizzazz)
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN)
Two weeks ago, the defensive coach in Mike Elko emerged. Fresh from a 41-40 track-meet win at Notre Dame, his Aggies established a far more conservative streak.
First three A&M games: 71.0 total points per game, 7.0 yards per play, 5.2 yards allowed per play
Last two games: 33.0 total points per game, 6.1 yards per play, 3.7 yards allowed per play
In their first three games, A&M ran the ball just 39% of the time. In wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, that surged to 63%. The Aggies took more time between plays too. On both offense and defense, they sacrificed aggression for control. Granted, this nearly backfired when they dominated Auburn but couldn’t pull away. But last week’s 31-9 pummeling of Mississippi State was their best overall performance of the season.
Now comes a Florida team that also played its best game a week ago. The Gators’ defense pummeled Arch Manning early and often, and quarterback DJ Lagway played by far his most relaxed and effective game of 2025. The Gators still didn’t run the ball that well, and that’s been the easier way to move against A&M, but if this is the new Florida, Texas might not be the only team it upsets.
Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 10.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 6.7
The Red Velvet Cheesecake on a Stick of the Week (comforting and familiar, albeit in a confusing vessel)
No. 15 Michigan at USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Michigan and USC have played 11 times, and nine were in the greater Los Angeles area. Of course, eight of those were at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena; for just the second time, they’ll meet in USC’s L.A. Coliseum home.
After a bye week following the loss at Illinois, USC will define its season one way or the other playing Michigan and Notre Dame back-to-back. The Trojans’ offense still ranks first nationally in points per drive and yards per play, but the defense has slipped to 89th in rushing success rate allowed. You know what Michigan will do constantly if you can’t stop it? Run the ball. Justice Haynes has five 100-yard games in five tries.
Current line: USC -2.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 3.0 | FPI projection: USC by 4.8
This week in the Big 12
Texas Tech’s recent levels of dominance could be taking some of the mystery out of the Big 12 title race — per SP+, the Red Raiders currently have a 38% title shot, and no one else is above 13%. But it’s still early. Four Big 12 teams are 2-0 in conference play, with another seven at 2-1 or 1-1. From those 11 teams, we get three head-to-head matchups Saturday evening.
Kansas at No. 9 Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., Fox)
Have we finally found a Texas Tech weakness? It took a few games. Red zone offense was a major issue against Houston last week — the Red Raiders scored TDs on just two of eight red zone trips, and they’re now 103rd in red zone touchdown rate for the season. That can cost you a game somewhere at some point, at least if you’re making fewer than eight trips.
Tech otherwise remains a juggernaut — top 10 in offensive and defensive success rate and top 15 on third downs on both sides of the ball with bigger big plays than its opponents. That doesn’t leave teams with many avenues for an upset. But KU’s defense is solid in the red zone, and quarterback Jalon Daniels escapes pressure beautifully. If he can make plays while Tech is kicking field goals, we could have a game.
Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0
No. 18 BYU at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Arizona’s offense has been pretty mediocre this season, but the Wildcats are 4-1 because they’ve resurrected the Desert Swarm defense. They rank fourth in yards allowed per play, combining loads of negative run plays with loads of incompletions and interceptions. BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed every test thus far, but if he’s ever going to look like a freshman, it will come against a defense like this.
Of course, BYU’s defense is equally good at forcing mistakes — the Cougars are 15th in stuff rate and third in interception rate — and while BYU has given up an increasing number of points in each game, Arizona has played only one top-50 defense, per SP+, and scored only 14 points against Iowa State.
Current line: BYU -1.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 5.1
No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Arizona State hasn’t lost to a Big 12 team in nearly a full calendar year, but the Sun Devils are almost an afterthought in the title race, because of both Texas Tech’s hot start and their own cold start. They’ve rebounded since a loss to Mississippi State, but with Utah and Tech in the next two weeks, they need to be close to a finished product.
ASU’s defense has evolved into a sharp, bend-don’t-break unit, pouncing on mistakes and preventing big plays, but Utah almost has a bend-don’t-break offense with heavy efficiency and almost no big plays. How does that play out? And with quarterback Sam Leavitt listed as doubtful to play, can ASU establish enough of a rhythm in the run game, where Utah has suffered some glitches this year?
Current line: Utah -5.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 10.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 5.3
Week 7 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number.
I feel as if we should claim an honorary victory for last week — we aimed to take down a Big Ten favorite and got one with the UCLA-Penn State game that I wasn’t nearly brave enough to add — but technically we failed and fell to 3-for-6 for the season. But the two-week losing streak ends here. SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that No. 9 Texas Tech (83% win probability against Kansas), No. 11 LSU (78% against South Carolina), No. 12 Tennessee (80% against Arkansas) and No. 16 Notre Dame (89% against NC State) all win. Someone important is going down.
Week 7 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Rutgers at Washington (9 p.m., FS1). We’re putting this ridiculous long-distance matchup on a Friday night for the second straight year, but last year’s game was pretty awesome, and this year’s could be a track meet. Rutgers ranks 17th in points per drive but 99th in points allowed per drive; Washington ranks fourth and 81st, respectively. We love points on a Friday night.
Current line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 12.0 | FPI projection: UW by 7.5
Early Saturday
Pitt at No. 25 Florida State (noon, ESPN). FSU set the bar a little too high with the early win over Bama, but the Noles still have a 1-in-3 chance of finishing 9-3 or better, per SP+, so there’s still plenty to shoot for. Pitt, meanwhile, looked spectacular last week after handing the reins to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. A win in Tallahassee would make the Panthers sleeper ACC contenders.
Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.1
UCF at Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Cincinnati has won four in a row since its season-opening loss to Nebraska, and the Bearcats are projected favorites in their next three. UCF produces some of the biggest big plays in the country, however, which makes it a serious candidate to pull a random upset at some point.
Current line: Cincy -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 9.2 | FPI projection: Cincy by 5.3
Louisiana at James Madison (noon, ESPN2). We’re gearing up for eight words I never thought I’d have a reason to type: an Old Dominion-James Madison game with playoff implications. That’s a week away, but first JMU’s dynamite defense has to deal with backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry and an excellent Louisiana run game.
Current line: JMU -17.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 17.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.0
Washington State at No. 4 Ole Miss (12:45 p.m., SECN). OK, this probably isn’t one you’ll need to focus on for very long. But any excuse to watch Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss in action is a good one. Wazzu defensive end Isaac Terrell is worth the price of admission too.
Current line: Rebels -31.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 34.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 34.7
Saturday afternoon
Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). The (interim) Bobby Petrino era begins again at Arkansas, and the Hogs will take their ultra-explosive offense to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that has overachieved against offensive projections but underachieved against defensive projections in every game. I’ll be disappointed if this game produces under 65 points.
Current line: Vols -11.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 13.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 10.7
TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox). It’s danger time for Kansas State. The Wildcats have lost four games by a combined 13 points; they’re clearly competitive and solid, but they’re projected underdogs in their next three games. Without an immediate rebound, a frustrating season could become something far worse. TCU, meanwhile, remains in the Big 12 hunt but can’t afford a slipup after the Week 5 loss at Arizona State.
Current line: TCU -1.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 8.2 | FPI projection: TCU by 1.8
No. 22 Iowa State at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This is a spectacularly backhanded compliment, but Colorado is a strong 2-4. The Buffaloes have been competitive in three of four losses and make more big plays than their opponents. Iowa State wins with efficiency but got gouged by Cincinnati’s big-play offense last week. This is probably a get-right game for the Cyclones, but there’s reason for paranoia.
Current line: ISU -2.5 (down from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ISU by 5.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.3
NC State at No. 16 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Notre Dame has shifted into gear, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game during a three-game winning streak. The Irish can’t let up, but NC State can shift into Bully Mode and make life really physical and frustrating thanks to RB Hollywood Smothers and an aggressive run defense.
Current line: Irish -23.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.5
Nebraska at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). Two 4-1 teams with very different vibes: Maryland was up 20-0 on Washington last week but collapsed and watched its unbeaten record disappear, while Nebraska handled its business against Michigan State and ranks in the top 25 in points scored and points allowed per drive. Can the Terps pull off an immediate rebound, or will NU’s push for a first 10-win season in 13 years continue?
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 3.0 | FPI projection: NU by 4.1
Air Force at UNLV (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Playing at Wyoming on a bed of hailstones sounds absolutely miserable, but UNLV survived the experience with relative ease, winning by 14. Now comes a visit from Air Force and new star quarterback Liam Szarka. The Falcons’ awful defense will probably prevent this from going down to the wire, but these two offenses are ridiculously fun to watch.
Current line: UNLV -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.7 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.6
Navy at Temple (4 p.m., ESPN2). Temple hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2019, but veteran head coach KC Keeler has the Owls at 3-2 and dreaming of a return to the postseason. Backs Jay Ducker and Hunter Smith could give unbeaten Navy fits, though it’s fair to assume Navy quarterback Blake Horvath and dual-threat WR Eli Heidenreich (413 receiving yards, 232 rushing yards) will give the Owls’ defense even more problems.
Current line: Navy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 13.2 | FPI projection: Navy by 2.5
Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Following the Week 3 upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech underachieved against SP+ projections twice in a row. After a bye-week refresh, it hosts an interim-coached Virginia Tech team that has started to run the ball and rush the passer well but will probably suffer too many glitches for an upset bid.
Current line: GT -14.5 | SP+ projection: GT by 16.8 | FPI projection: GT by 9.4
Northwestern at Penn State (3:30 p.m., FS1). After the worst and most unexpected loss of the James Franklin era, Penn State tries to get right against Northwestern before a rugged three-game stretch — at Iowa, at Ohio State, Indiana at home — either salvages or further wrecks the season.
Current line: PSU -21.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 21.2 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.9
Saturday evening
South Carolina at No. 11 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). Maybe the biggest now-or-never game of a week full of them. South Carolina fell off course with losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri and is a projected underdog in the next five games; the Gamecocks still have LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, though, and they will remain major upset threats. LSU, meanwhile, got a bye week after losing to Ole Miss to fix whatever’s wrong with the offense; with trips to Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma remaining, the Tigers can’t afford a home upset.
Current line: LSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 12.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 6.3
Iowa at Wisconsin (7 p.m., FS1). Iowa is eight points from an unbeaten record but is 3-2 instead. That’s more than Wisconsin can say, though. The Badgers showed some brief life after handing the QB reins to Southern Illinois transfer Hunter Simmons last week, but they still lost to Michigan by two touchdowns and have been outscored by 55 points against three power-conference opponents.
Current line: Iowa -3.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.0 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.1
Late Saturday
New Mexico at Boise State (9:45 p.m., FS1). Jason Eck and his super-underdog Lobos couldn’t get the job done at San José State last week, and their run defense is shaky enough that Boise State should be able to feast on the ground. UNM is crafty, however, avoiding negative plays and going for it constantly on fourth downs. If BSU is looking ahead to next week’s UNLV game, the Lobos could strike.
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 13.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 9.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 7 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 17 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). Another trip to the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference? You’re damn right! Conference play began last week with two awesome ranked-versus-ranked battles, and we get another one with quarterback Nathan Uselding and Platteville heading to River Falls. The host Falcons dropped a heartbreaker in Oshkosh last week, and it’s hard to come back from starting 0-2 when you have a seven-game conference schedule.
SP+ projection: UWP by 6.4.
FCS: Alabama State at No. 14 Jackson State (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). We could have a pretty dynamite Celebration Bowl this year, with the MEAC’s NC Central and the SWAC’s Jackson State and Alabama State all 31st or better in FCS SP+. JSU and ASU meet in Jackson on Saturday. A dynamite run game led by Ahmad Miller and Travis Terrell Jr. (combined: 150 rushing yards per game, 8.1 per carry) could give JSU a slight edge, but ASU QB Andrew Body is an impressive dual threat.
SP+ projection: JSU by 7.6.
FCS: No. 9 Southern Illinois at No. 1 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). On one hand, this is a top-10 matchup, and those are always worth tracking. On the other hand, NDSU has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the FCS this season — shocking, right? — and I’m not sure even a top-10 team can keep up in Fargo. SIU quarterback DJ Williams is another super-fun dual threat, though.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 20.3.
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