Tesla says price drops are long-term thinking, but it’s really about demand

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2 years ago

April 19, 2023

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Tesla has just released its Q1 2023 earnings report amidst several price drops since the beginning of the year. This left investors questioning how these drops would affect margins, and Tesla has an explanation, but it’s perhaps only a partial one.

In a nod to the question on everyone’s lips, Tesla’s earnings report starts off immediately with a couple of paragraphs intended to address the effect of these price drops on its industry-high margins.

In the current macroeconomic environment, we see this year as a unique opportunity for Tesla. As many carmakers are working through challenges with the unit economics of their EV programs, we aim to leverage our position as a cost leader. We are focused on rapidly growing production, investments in autonomy and vehicle software, and remaining on track with our growth investments.

Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicle models across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate. We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs, and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale.

Tesla is pointing out that since its EV volume is so drastically higher than every other automaker’s, it can build cars at a lower cost than the competition.

And indeed, after yesterday’s price drops and other even larger price drops earlier this year, Tesla has gone from being near the top of the EV price range to near the bottom. Last year, Tesla repeatedly hiked prices while the industry faced supply challenges and EV demand well exceeded supply.

After tax credits, the base Model Y is now under $40k, while many electric SUVs have higher starting prices. And the base Model 3 is now available for $40k before credits are taken into account, though it now only qualifies for $3,750 due to the IRS’ new battery guidelines.

Tesla points out that these cuts reduced its margins but says that this margin reduction happened at a “manageable rate.” In Q1 last year, Tesla’s operating margin was 19.2%, and this year it’s 11.4%, a drop of 779 basis points.

This is a big chunk, cutting operating margins almost in half – and note that there have been further price cuts, both in the US and elsewhere, since the end of the quarter. So we could expect average selling prices to go down further in next quarter’s earnings and perhaps another cut to margins.

That said, Tesla is still planning to grow production at a CAGR of 50%, guiding for 1.8 million deliveries next year (about 31% growth from last year’s 1.37 million production). Tesla says it would rather focus on high volume and lower margins.

And it should be noted that higher volume also displaces more gas vehicles, which is better for the environment and public health.

There are other reasons for these price drops. For one, costs have come down, particularly with a massive global drop in the costs of resources like lithium after last year’s massive global spike. Also, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk has pointed out, rising interest rates have made it more expensive to get a loan on a car, which means Tesla has had to lower prices to make purchases seem more attractive (this is a case study in how rising interest rates can lower inflation).

But Tesla claims these margin cuts are manageable, and not only that, the company is taking a long-term view:

Our near-term pricing strategy considers a long-term view on per vehicle profitability given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve, upwards or downwards, depending on a number of factors.

Here, Tesla says that despite the vast majority of its revenue coming from sales of cars – in Q1, $19.9b came from cars and only $3.3b came from energy, services, and other – it feels confident that any losses in automotive sales revenue will be made up for in the long term by these other revenue categories.

Tesla currently sells access to its FSD Beta software for an eye-watering $15,000. This is an enormous chunk of change, particularly for a car that sells for $40k new. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has claimed that FSD has enormous value, though most who have used it recognize that it’s definitely not ready for primetime yet. Perhaps this is why timelines for its rollout keep getting pushed back. (Is it next year yet?)

Tesla also mentions Supercharging as a potential revenue center. Right now, Tesla doesn’t make a lot of money on Supercharging, but that may change very soon, as the company has started opening up Superchargers to other brands. Tesla used this opportunity to establish the “North American Charging Standard” using its connector, claiming that, since its connector is on the majority of cars and DC chargers in North America, other automakers should follow Tesla’s lead and use its plug.

This also opens the company up to the availability of billions of federal dollars earmarked for charger installation but which can only be used on chargers that are open to multiple brands of car. Until recently, only Teslas could use Superchargers, but now that they’re open to other cars, Tesla can presumably angle for some of those billions.

Finally, Tesla says that service could be a profit center, a big change from Musk’s original philosophy on the topic. Here’s a video from Tesla’s 2013 shareholder meeting, timestamped to 1:36 when his answer on service begins:

[embedded content]

“Our philosophy with respect to service is not to make a profit on service. I think it’s terrible to make a profit on service.”

Clearly, things have changed since then, and Tesla is much larger and has different goals and considerations now than before. But in the context of discussing auto dealerships, with which Tesla is still in a battle, one would think that this overarching “philosophy” would not have changed with transient business conditions.

Nevertheless, this is one way in which Tesla could conceivably offer reduced upfront prices, with the hopes that the continual business of servicing vehicles in the field would help to shore up margins. Most other automakers don’t have this option since they don’t own their dealerships, but Tesla does, which gives it the flexibility to capture this portion of revenue. It sounds like the company now explicitly intends to seek this revenue after originally promising not to.

Electrek’s Take

But there’s another reason that Tesla doesn’t mention in its report: demand.

I know; we’ve heard it before. For the last decade, other automakers, media, incumbent industry, oil companies, captured regulators, and so on have all said that there just isn’t enough EV demand. We’ve called them wrong every time, and they’ve been wrong every time.

But specifically, here, we’re talking about demand solely for Tesla, after the huge price hikes that the company engaged in over the course of 2021 and 2022 and amid questionable public behavior by the CEO.

At the time when Tesla was raising prices, EV demand was very high, and EV supply was very low. This gave Tesla, the company with the most EV supply, significant pricing power.

Now, we still have high global EV demand, with many other brands selling out vehicles while gas cars go unsold. But in the US, we have an ever-changing tax credit environment, with some new rules going into place yesterday. This means there’s a lot of shifting happening in the industry, and it’s hard to predict which models will have the most demand as only some qualify for the tax credit (however, you can bypass most restrictions by leasing).

And while Tesla is mostly on the good side of this – its cars are now much lower in price, and most of them qualify for credits – it also has a ton of supply, is continuing to ramp quickly, and may be alienating potential customers.

Anecdotally (and in data), CEO Musk’s recent behavior related to the Twitter “dumpster fire” he keeps burning his money in has affected the company’s reputation. Musk says that TSLA shareholders will benefit in the long term from all the irrelevant nonsense he’s very publicly getting himself into, but we are not convinced.

So between high prices, erratic behavior from the CEO, and availability of other EV models, customers have perhaps looked elsewhere over the last year. As a result, Tesla’s inventory started to grow in a way that the company hasn’t ever really dealt with before, and it had to start pulling demand levers. It first did this with incentives, but this year has focused instead on large price drops.

Those price drops will definitely be able to bring some customers back, but it remains to be seen if some customers were permanently turned off by the high-profile behavior of the CEO.

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Chevy Blazer SS EV first drive, over 600hp and 300 miles of range!

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3 hours ago

April 22, 2025

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Chevy Blazer SS EV first drive, over 600hp and 300 miles of range!

Chevy flew us down to Charlotte for some track and road time with the Chevy Blazer SS EV. The 600+ horsepower beast barely hidden beneath the skin of Chevy’s mid-sized SUV is also the quickest ‘SS’ monikered vehicle the company has ever produced. The Blazer SS also has a ton of extras like a standard, robust SuperCruise, which competes favorably with the Performance line from domestic competitors like Tesla’s Model Y and Ford’s Mustang Mach-e GT.

As one could imagine, a trip to Charlotte to test the Chevy Blazer SS should begin at the track. There, we got to experience a few laps at the raceway, along with some 3.4-second wide-open throttle 0-60 times, but not the 11.8-second quarter mile at 115mph that Chevy advertises. I have no doubt that the SS can handle that, especially with the right tires.

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Lime officially launches new e-bike and electric moped into broader sharing fleets

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4 hours ago

April 22, 2025

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Lime officially launches new e-bike and electric moped into broader sharing fleets

Lime, a global leader in shared electric micromobility, is significantly expanding its fleet this spring with the launch of two new vehicles – the LimeBike and LimeGlider.

After a successful series of pilot programs in 2024, Lime announced plans to roll out more than 10,000 of these new electric vehicles across multiple cities in Europe and North America in the coming months.

The introduction of the LimeBike and LimeGlider mark a key step forward for Lime as the company aims to attract a wider range of riders to shared micromobility. Both vehicles feature significant design innovations informed by extensive rider feedback, city partner consultations, and performance data gathered from Lime’s extensive operational experience.

The LimeBike marks the return of the Lime brand’s original name in a refreshed and modern form. Designed specifically to enhance rider accessibility and comfort, the LimeBike features an approachable step-through frame making it easier to mount and dismount.

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Additionally, it has a unique ergonomic clamp design allowing riders to easily adjust seat height. This feature was developed directly from rider feedback, aiming to make the bike more inclusive for riders of different heights and abilities.

Smaller 20-inch wheels give the LimeBike improved handling and a compact feel, making it more maneuverable in dense urban settings.

Unlike European markets, the LimeBike is offered in US markets will also include a hand throttle, allowing riders the flexibility to choose between traditional pedal-assisted cycling and throttle-only operation. This flexibility caters to varying rider preferences and physical abilities, broadening the appeal of the bike in a market where most e-bike riders tend to prefer throttle operation.

The LimeGlider, meanwhile, introduces a completely new vehicle type to Lime’s fleet – a seated, pedal-less electric vehicle designed for effortless riding. Combining the comfort of a seated ride with the simplicity of a scooter, the LimeGlider aims to appeal especially to riders who prefer a less physically demanding ride experience or who may have limitations making traditional scooters challenging.

Designed with rider comfort as a priority, the LimeGlider includes footrests instead of pedals, a large padded moped-style seat positioned lower to the ground to lower the center of gravity, and intuitive ergonomic hand grips to reduce rider fatigue. The green and black colorway sets it apart somewhat from Lime’s usual green and white fleet, further underscoring its new role as a bridge between scooters and bicycles in terms of ride experience.

Both the LimeBike and LimeGlider incorporate several shared improvements aimed at boosting convenience and safety. Wider front baskets offer increased utility for everyday errands and ergonomic phone holders provide secure and accessible navigation for riders. Each vehicle is equipped with 2.5-inch tires optimized for reliable traction in varying conditions.

From the tech side, the LimeBike and LimeGlider represent Lime’s most advanced offerings yet. Lime says that improved location accuracy within the vehicles’ onboard systems ensures quicker identification and responsiveness in recognizing designated parking zones, restricted access areas, and low-speed zones, crucial for compliance with city regulations and enhancing rider safety.

Sustainability has also been central to the design philosophy behind Lime’s latest vehicles. Utilizing modular construction methods, the LimeBike and LimeGlider are among the most repairable vehicles Lime has produced to date. Modular components mean quicker, easier repairs, minimizing downtime and extending vehicle lifespan. Both vehicles share Lime’s proprietary swappable battery technology, common across the company’s Gen4 fleet, streamlining operations and reducing environmental impacts by prolonging battery life and optimizing energy usage.

The pilot tests conducted in 2024 underscored the strong market potential for both vehicles. Lime reported notably positive rider responses, with high rates of repeat usage and longer ride durations, particularly with the LimeGlider. For instance, during the pilot in Seattle and Zurich, riders frequently embarked on journeys exceeding 5 kilometers and averaging over 15 minutes per trip, surpassing the usage patterns of Lime’s existing Gen4 electric bikes.

Building upon these successful pilots, Lime’s spring launch targets several strategically selected cities. The LimeBike is set to roll out in Turin, Italy; Aarhus, Denmark; Nice, France; and Nyon, Switzerland, expanding into areas with established cycling cultures and infrastructure. The LimeGlider debuts in major U.S. cities including Denver, Austin, and San Francisco, markets that Lime identifies as primed for growth in seated, scooter-like micromobility solutions. Both vehicles will also see wider availability in cities like Atlanta, Seattle, and Zurich, where initial pilots indicated strong rider enthusiasm.

Lime’s President Joe Kraus expressed optimism about the new vehicles, highlighting their appeal during early trials: “During our initial pilots last year, it was clear that the LimeBike and LimeGlider earned the love of our riders, with people returning to them frequently for local travel,” Kraus explained. “We’re so excited to take our next step with these vehicles and bring them to more cities this spring.”

The introduction of these vehicles aligns closely with urban policy goals aimed at reducing car dependency and enhancing accessibility for a diverse range of city residents. Lime specifically designed the LimeBike and LimeGlider to meet the needs of traditionally underrepresented micromobility users, such as older riders and women. Enhanced vehicle stability, ease of use, and adjustable features aim to reduce common barriers to micromobility adoption among these groups.

Since its inception in 2017, Lime riders have collectively completed over 750 million rides, covering more than 900 million miles (over 1.5 billion kilometers). This significant uptake of micromobility solutions has translated into meaningful environmental benefits, replacing an estimated 180 million car trips, thereby preventing over 77 million kilograms of CO2 emissions and saving more than 33 million liters of gasoline.

With the launch of the LimeBike and LimeGlider, Lime is poised to significantly build upon these achievements, further shifting urban transportation patterns toward sustainable, inclusive, and efficient micromobility.

Electrek’s Take

I think that Lime’s new LimeBike and LimeGlider are smart additions that feel well-positioned for today’s micromobility market. It’s also great to see Lime include a throttle on the LimeBike for the North American market, where so many riders prefer to ride without pedaling. For casual users and tourists especially, a throttle can make all the difference between choosing to hop on a shared e-bike or not.

Lime clearly listened to rider feedback, and these new models could help pull even more people into using micromobility instead of cars. Let’s just hope they can keep it up.

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Tesla Q1 2025 earnings preview: it’s going to be a messy one

Published

4 hours ago

April 22, 2025

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Tesla Q1 2025 earnings preview: it's going to be a messy one

Tesla (TSLA) will release its Q1 2025 financial results today, Tuesday, April. 22, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.

Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.

Tesla Q1 2025 deliveries and energy deployment

CEO Elon Musk and his loyal shareholders often claim that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company, but the truth is that the company’s automotive business still drives the vast majority of its financial performance.

Tesla’s revenue remains tied mainly to the number of vehicles it delivers.

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Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q1 2025 vehicle production and deliveries:

	Production	Deliveries	Subject to operating lease accounting
Model 3/Y	345,454	323,800	4%
Other Models	17,161	12,881	7%
Total	362,615	336,681	4%

It was significantly below expectations and approximately 50,000 units short of what Tesla delivered in Q1 2024.

Analysts have been adjusting their revenue and earnings expectations accordingly since the disclosure a few weeks ago.

Now, Tesla’s energy storage business is also starting to make a meaningful contribution to its financial performance. The company disclosed having deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products during Q1 2025.

Tesla no longer discloses solar deployment information.

Tesla Q1 2025 revenue

For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers and now the energy storage deployment data.

However, many were taken by surprise by how low Tesla’s deliveries were this quarter and the automaker offered a lot of discounts, which will affect the average sale price that analysts are now trying to figure out.

The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $21.345 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slightly lower revenue of $21.254 billion.

Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:

This would be about a $1 billion lower than the same period last year – meaning that analysts don’t expect Tesla’s increased energy storage deployment to compensate for the lower vehicle deliveries.

Tesla Q1 2025 earnings

Tesla claims to consistently strive for marginal profitability every quarter, as it invests the majority of its funds in growth, but its growth has disappeared from its automotive business over the last year, and its gross margin is going in the same direction.

Analysts are trying to estimate Tesla’s gross margin with the lower deliveries to figure out its actual earnings per share.

For Q1 2025, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.41 per share and Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction is a little lower at $0.40.

Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:

If the estimates are accurate, Tesla’s earnings per share would be down from $0.45 during the same period last year.

There are several things that Tesla could do here that could surprise investors with a significant earnings beat. Tesla could have recognized revenue from the launch of FSD in China, even though the launch was brief and 95% of the value of the FSD package is unsupervised self-driving, which Tesla has yet to deliver.

Tesla could have also sold more emission credits. As of the end of last quarter, Tesla was still sitting on a good amount, and while it claims to sell them when the price makes the most sense, it is quite an opaque market and Tesla could at any time decide to sell them just to save itself from a bad quarter.

Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter, analyst call, and special ‘company update’

As we reported yesterday, this is likely going to be a messy earnings report. Musk has been on a propaganda spree lately after Tesla suffered immense brand damage and declining stock price due to his involvement in politics.

Now, he has called for a “live company update” at the same time as the release of Tesla’s financial results, which appears to be a desperate move at damage control amid a tough quarter for the company.

I expect that he will try to paint a rosy picture of Tesla’s self-driving and robot efforts to come save the company amid declining EV sales.

As I previously reported, I wouldn’t be surprised if he also pushes for Tesla to invest in his xAI startup or proposes a merger between the companies.

Tesla will also take questions from retail shareholders based on the most popular ones on Say. Here are the top 5 questions and my thoughts on them:

Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?
- We have had the answer to that question for about a year now, but Tesla shareholders don’t believe it because Elon claimed that Reuters’ original report that Tesla canceled its more affordable EV was “wrong” when it fact it wasn’t. As we recently reported, Musk killed the “$25,000 Tesla” in favor of the Robotaxi and building new stripped-down versions of Model Y and Model 3.
When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?
- Lol – we are just going to get Elon’s “best guess”, which has been wrong every time for the last decade.
How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?
- Musk is going to say “you go woke, you go broke” and that his pathetic quest to “kill the woke mind virus” will ultimately be good for Tesla because the world will be rid of this destructive virus. As for the global economic risks, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla announces more layoffs soon.
Robotaxi still on track for this year?
- It could very well be. We have already reported in detail about how Tesla’s “robotaxi” launch in Austin, planned for June, is actually a “moving of the goal” and it has very little to do with Tesla’s long-stated promise of delivering unsupervised self-driving in a consumer vehicle, as asked in the second question.
Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?
- If they say no here, don’t believe them. Tesla is down 50,000 units in Q1, and yes, the Model Y changeover has something to do with it, but you can clearly see now, based on new Model Y delivery timelines, that Tesla has no order backlog for the vehicle. It will likely launch incentives to sell the brand-new vehicle that was supposed to save Tesla’s auto business in the coming weeks.

Tune in with Electrek after market close today to get all the latest news from Tesla’s earnings, conference call, and now also an apparent “company update.”

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