Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q1 2023 financial results today, Wednesday, April 19, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here we’ll take a look at what both the street and retail investors are expecting for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q1 2023 deliveries
As usual, Tesla already disclosed its Q1 vehicle delivery and production numbers, which drive the vast majority of the company’s revenue.
Tesla also confirmed having produced 440,000 vehicles during the quarter – also a new record.
Delivery and production numbers are always slightly adjusted during earning results.
Tesla Q1 2023 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $23.617 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a higher revenue of $24.048 billion.
Despite the new record number of deliveries, these estimates would represent a quarter-to-quarter decrease in revenue due to Tesla’s implementing large price cuts during the first quarter.
Nonetheless, it would be a massive year-over-year increase from $18 billion in revenue in Q1 2022.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Tesla Q1 2023 earnings
Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful in doing so over the last two years now.
For Q1 2023, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.85 per share, while Estimize’s prediction is higher with a profit of $0.94 per share.
The estimates have a wide range this quarter because of the price cuts Tesla implemented during the quarter. Analysts and investors are looking to see how badly it is going to affect Tesla’s margins and, ultimately, its profits.
Unsurprisingly, Tesla achieving the Wall Street consensus would be a big drop in earnings quarter-to-quarter, and the automaker would be flat on earnings year-over-year.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call
The obvious thing is the gross margin. Investors are going to be looking for that number first. They want to know by how much it dropped and how much room there is since Tesla continued to drop prices after the end of the quarter.
If Tesla can stay in the mid to high teens, I think investors will be happy, but if it dips lower than that, they might have a problem.
Investors will also be looking at insights from management about the pricing strategy, which seems to be changing fast.
Tesla shareholders will also be looking on an update on Cybertruck production as the start of production gets closer, but knowing Tesla management, I wouldn’t expect much more than it being on track for a start of production this summer and volume production next year.
Cybertruck should not have a material impact on Tesla’s revenue in 2023.
I assume that amid margins going down, Tesla investors are going to want to have an update on Tesla’s self-driving program, which has helped margins in the past, but the program has been stalling for a while now.
According to the Say website, where investors can ask and upvote questions for the meeting, shareholders are particularly interested in Tesla Energy this quarter and its potential future impact on Tesla’s financials.
It has been a growing business for Tesla and with a ramp-up in Megapack production, it should be bigger in Q1, but I wouldn’t expect a massive jump in deployment until the second half of the year.
We will see what Tesla has to say about that.
You can join us live on Electrek this evening for intensive coverage of Tesla’s Q1 2023 financial results starting at around 4 p.m. ET for the results and through the evening for news coming out of the conference call and results.
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Renewables increased their output by almost 10% and provided nearly a quarter of US electrical generation in 2024, according to newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Solar was still No 1
Solar remained the US’s fastest-growing source of electricity in 2024. Utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar combined increased by 26.9% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report data.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 32%, while small-scale solar increased by 15.3%. Together, solar was nearly 7% (6.91%) of total US electrical generation for the year.
In December alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar expanded by 42% compared to December 2023.
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Small-scale solar (systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 1.9% of the US electricity supply in 2024. In fact, small-scale solar PV generates over five times more electricity than utility-scale geothermal.
2024 renewables milestones
The electrical output of US wind farms in 2024 grew by 7.7% year-over-year. Wind remains the largest source of electrical generation among renewable energy sources, accounting for 10.3% of the US total.
Wind and solar combined provided more than 17.2% of US electrical generation during 2024. The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – provided 24.2% of total US electricity production in 2024 compared to 23.2% of electrical output a year earlier.
Between January and December, electrical generation by renewables grew by 9.6% compared to the same period the year before – nearly three times the growth rate of natural gas (3.3%) and over 10 times that of nuclear power (0.9%).
In December alone, electrical generation by renewables grew by 10.1% compared to December 2023.
Wind and solar together produced 15.9% more electricity than coal and came close to matching nuclear power’s share of total generation (17.2% vs. 17.8%).
The mix of renewables reinforced their position as the second largest source of electrical generation, behind only natural gas.
“Renewable energy sources now provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Consequently, the rash efforts of the Trump Administration to undermine wind, solar, and other renewables will have serious negative consequences for the nation’s electricity supply and the economy.”
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However, we suspected that this would not be “unsupervised self-driving’ in customer vehicles like Tesla has been promising since 2016, but an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for ride-hailing services, much like Waymo has been doing for years.
With the focus on Austin in June, Tesla stopped talking about California, which was announced to happen at the same time as Texas last year.
Now, Bloomberg reports that Tesla has applied for a ride-hailing permit in California:
The electric vehicle manufacturer applied late last year for what’s known as a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, according to documents viewed by Bloomberg. That classification means Tesla would own and control the fleet of vehicles.
But this application is for a regular ride-hailing service, like Uber, albeit for an internal fleet rather than vehicles operated by customers.
Tesla has yet to apply for a permit to operate driverless vehicles:
In its communications with California officials, Tesla discussed driver’s license information and drug-testing coordination, suggesting the company intends to use human drivers, at least initially. Tesla is applying for the same type of permit used by Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s robotaxi business. While Tesla has approval to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver in California, it doesn’t have, nor has applied for, a driverless testing or deployment permit from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a spokesperson.
Musk claimed that he believes Tesla will be able to achieve “unsupervised self-driving” in California by “the end of the year”, but he has claimed that every year for the past decade.
This is just a step for Tesla to test ride-hailing services ahead of autonomy. A nothing burger, really, since ride-hailing has obviously been solved already by several companies, Lyft, Uber, Didi, etc.
What needs to be solved is autonomous driving.
As I have been saying for the last year, I am sure Tesla will be able to launch an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for a ride-hailing service in California later this year like it plans to do in Austin in June, but that’s nowhere near what Tesla promised since 2016.
It’s a moving of the goal post, and it’s basically just proving that Tesla is able to do something similar to Waymo – 5 years later.
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The feature is called “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads” as Tesla seems more cautious about using the term “Full Self-Driving” in China, but it is a feature known for being in the FSD package everywhere else.
Tesla has been facing a lot of issues in releasing FSD features in China. The automaker has been limited in its neural net training due to restrictions about data coming in and out of the country, and it found it difficult to adapt to regulations regarding bus lanes and other China-specific road rules.
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CEO Elon Musk warned that FSD in China would be a problem during Tesla’s earnings call last month due to the different rules. He mentioned bus lanes as an example:
By the way, were about the biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is the bus lanes are very complicated. And there’s like literally like hours of the day that you’re allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly. So, it’s kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China.
The automated ticketing system is not just for bus lanes and Tesla owners are learning about it the hard way.
Tesla owners have been testing out the features in live streams on social media and some of them are reporting getting numerous tickets for using FSD.
For example, this Tesla driver received 7 tickets in the space of a single drive because the FSD drove in bike lanes and made illegal maneuvers:
Car News China tracked several live streams and customer feedback on Chinese social media, and the consensus appears to be that it’s “pretty good, but with lots of bugs”.
The drivers are particularly impressed with how “natural” FSD drives, but they also noted that it still
Where the system lacks is the understanding of local traffic rules (such as no use of shoulder/bike lanes on turns, similar to the bus lane rules that Elon talked about in the most recent earnings call) and the sporadic use of wrong lanes (e.g. going straight in a left or right turn only lane) or navigation showing the vehicle in one lane when in fact it’s in another or wrong perception of objects (red balloons as traffic lights). Many of the live streams counted the number of traffic violations from the vehicle and the number of points that would have been taken off or licenses suspended (12 points = suspension) as a result.
Chinese media websites are now getting flooded with Tesla vehicles running red traffic lights, failing to recognize green lights, and driving on restricted lanes, like the video above.
The report also highlights how Tesla is facing strong competition in ADAS in China, with competitors like Nio, Xpeng, BYD, and others launching competitive products, which is not necessarily the case in other markets for Tesla.
Electrek’s Take
I feel like this is likely going to result in bad PR for Tesla in China. You can’t have drivers losing their licenses because FSD doesn’t recognize bike lanes.
Now, of course, Tesla will say that the driver remains responsible, but I don’t know how good Tesla’s messaging is on that front in China.
It’s going to be an interesting story to track in the coming months.
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