Recession already here for many Americans, as buying power, credit, social net shrinks

Published

2 years ago

April 20, 2023

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The stock market may be closely watching the chance of an official economic recession, but many Americans across the country are already feeling the squeeze as they contend with higher prices and borrowing costs than they saw a year ago.

While Evelyn Canela, 31, a senior program director at a nonprofit based in Harlem, said she thinks she has a “well-paying job,” which paid in the $100,000-range when she first started, she also said she’s been feeling the pressure to save, particularly as various industries have seen more layoffs in recent months.

In a poll released by Morning Consult last month, almost half of respondents believed the nation was already in a recession.

The poll also found that about 41 percent of Americans surveyed had begun taking precautions and steps to beef up savings, but a closer look at the data revealed disparities by income.

Adults in households with annual earnings above $100,000 were more likely than others to say they were beginning to prepare for an economic downturn or recession, with 52 percent saying they’d taken to stockpiling goods or food, cut back on spending or other steps.

By contrast, the poll found that those in households that earned under $50,000 annually were more likely to say they had not yet begun to make preparations “but wish they could.”

The poll comes as recent months have seen more Americans are feeling poorer and pessimistic about the nation’s economic forecast at a time that rising price stickers are putting a squeeze on pockets across the spectrum. Job seekers line up outside the New Hampshire Works employment security job center in Manchester, N.H.(AP Photo/Mary Schwalm, File)

At the same time, data shows credit card debt is also on the rise; a March study from Wallethub found “credit card debt increased by $85.8 billion during Q4 2022 – the highest quarterly increase ever recorded.” Job losses are cutting into spending power, even for six-figure earners

Recent months have also seen big layoffs, particularly in the tech industry as high-profile companies like Google, Apple and Amazon have announced plans to cut jobs. Other businesses like Goldman Sachs have also unveiled plans for thousands of layoffs this year.

“I’ve always been saving, but I’ve been way more aggressive more recently. I’m not in the tech field, but I’ve seen these massive layoffs,” Canela said. “It’s a very scary thing when people in your close circle have lost their jobs.”

Research has shown more consumers making more than $100,000 annually say they’re living paycheck to paycheck.

A survey conducted by PYMNTS and LendingClub found that more than half of consumers in the income bracket reported the same in December 2022 Social program cutbacks and inflation are squeezing Americans

At the same time, experts say the most vulnerable populations are bearing the brunt of the financial pain in current conditions.

Kyle Waide, president and CEO of the Atlanta Community Food Bank, said in a recent interview that the organization is seeing “40 percent more people today than we did at the beginning of 2022.”

“We are distributing essentially the same volume of food as we did during the height of the pandemic,” he said. “And we know that that increase in demand in the community relates to increased costs associated with inflation, along with the discontinuation of various pandemic-era stimulus programs.”

Waide said he’s referring to the expiration of the temporary expansion to the Child Tax Credit that millions received during the pandemic, as well as discontinuation of the emergency Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) allocations, among other pandemic-era programs that have begun to unwind.

Anti-hunger advocates have said it’s also been getting tougher for some food banks to meet demand in the face of higher food prices.

“We’re operating on a deficit budget right now,” said Valerie Stone Hawthorne, director of government relations at the North Texas Food Bank. “We are currently working on a budget of $66 million, but we’re only forecasting $45 million in public support.”

“We’ve planned for that to operate in this deficit budget, but it’s not sustainable,” she said, adding, “I don’t see how removing benefits that people need is going to solve the hunger problem.” El Pasoans Fighting Hunger volunteers distribute food at a center in El Paso, Texas. (Lonnie Valencia/El Pasoans Fighting Hunger via AP) More homelessness and food insecurity looks likely

Hawthorne’s comments come amid increased concern over what proposed cuts to non-defense spending on Capitol Hill could mean for efforts to combat food insecurity and homelessness amid a looming battle over the debt limit.

In recent months, House Republicans have ramped up calls for significant fiscal reform and spending cuts to be made as part of a larger deal later this year to act on the debt limit, which caps how much money the Treasury can owe to cover the nation’s bills.

The Treasury first began implementing what it called “extraordinary measures” in January to buy time until the nation reaches the so-called “X Date,” when it could risk a national default.

Among the proposals that have gained in the House GOP conference in recent months includes pitches for tougher work requirements for welfare programs, as well as cap limits for discretionary spending for non-defense programs at dollar levels not seen since 2022 amid a larger push by the party to combat inflation.

“What we’re ultimately talking about is cutting staff benefits with one of the most cruel policies that there is,” Christina Wong, director of public policy and advocacy for the Northwest Harvest food justice group, said of proposed changes to work requirements for SNAP.

“Lots of evidence that shows that work requirements don’t actually get people work because it’s not a lack of willingness to find work, but we’re talking about a population with deep structural barriers to finding employment,” she said.

Carl Gershenson, a lab director at Eviction Lab, said such moves would be “felt immediately,” as housing advocates and officials sound alarm over how federal efforts like the Housing Choice Voucher Program would fare with such cuts.

“That’s families losing access to the support when they need it most and increasing the wait time for people who have already been waiting in some cases up to a decade,” Gershenson said. Staying in your home is becoming more difficult

In a 2022 report, the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found that only about 25 percent of households eligible for federal rental assistance receive it due to “funding limitations” — shutting out more than 16 million households.

“Unlike some other kinds of programs, like Social Security, where everybody’s eligible to help for the housing programs that the federal government has, there’s a lot of people who are eligible who don’t get to help just because it’s discretionary funding program,” Steve Berg, chief policy officer at National Alliance to End Homelessness, said in an interview.

“Congress puts as much money on the table as sort of fits in with the other needs they have that year,” Berg said, adding “people get help get help and the people that don’t get help are homeless.”

House GOP leadership has signaled the conference will move on its own with a debt ceiling bill if Democrats don’t come to the bargaining table, vowing fiscal discipline as the national debt teeters around $31.4 trillion.

But they face a significant challenge in unifying behind a plan that can win the support of their slim majority in the lower chamber as well as the public — recent polling shows Americans agree little on areas to draw down spending.

“The very first thing they need to do is to walk in their constituents’ shoes,” said Barbara Jackson, a retired database administrator based in Atlanta. Lawmakers should “take about six months to have to balance the budget with what [their constituents are] making,” Jackson added.

“The far majority of politicians today are at the upper echelon of the income. So, they can’t relate to the everyday John and Joe,” Jackson said. Homeless men stand by their tents along the street across from Los Angeles City Hall on Oct. 22, 2022. Inflation isn’t falling fast enough to help most Americans

Inflation may be slowing some, but Americans say they aren’t feeling much relief as they contend with higher prices than they saw a year ago.

And some are fearful the worst is yet to come.

“I think we’re moving towards a recession,” Canela said. “At least that’s what it feels like.”

Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that annual consumer inflation in March reached its lowest point in nearly two years, as the Federal Reserve has continued to hike interest rates in a bid to counter rising prices.

A key driver behind the decline was the slowdown in grocery prices: Annual food costs saw a 1.5 percent drop from February and an overall 5 percent decrease from the high watermark seen in August.

But despite the drop, some can’t help but notice the price stickers are much more north of where they used to be.

Jackson, 74, said she sees “more aspects of high inflation everyday.“

“One of the first things I noticed, probably like millions of others, is the cost of food,” she said. “Not too long ago, you could buy three pounds of onion for a couple of dollars. Now, it’s five bucks.”

While Jackson, who recalled the era of the 2008 financial crisis, said there’s “definitely a difference” between current conditions and a recession, she also said there is still some pressure.

“It’s almost like this is a mist as opposed to a fire and that it’s insidious,” Jackson said. “It’s just everywhere and little by little you begin to notice it.” It’s not technically a recession, but it sure feels like one for many

There is consensus among experts that the country is not currently experiencing a recession, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a downturn on the horizon.

U.S. central bankers broached the issue of a potential recession following the collapses of two prominent banks last month, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting show.

“Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year,” the minutes stated. SpaceX giant rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas Yellen calls for better relations with China amid tensions

Officials also expect to hike interest rates one more time this year, which can lead to higher mortgages and credit card payments, as the Fed seeks to make it more expensive to borrow to tackle inflation.

Even so, Fed officials are torn over whether to do so at the bank’s next policy meeting in May.

Sylvan Lane contributed.

US

At least 51 people killed in Texas flooding as authorities face scrutiny over response

Published

1 hour ago

July 6, 2025

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At least 51 people killed in Texas flooding as authorities face scrutiny over response

At least 51 people have died after heavy rain caused flash flooding, with water bursting from the banks of the Guadalupe River in Texas.

The overflowing water began sweeping into Kerr County and other areas around 4am local time on Friday, killing at least 43 people in the county.

This includes at least 15 children and 28 adults, with five children and 12 adults pending identification, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said at a news conference.

In nearby Kendall County, one person has died. At least four people were killed in Travis County, while at least two people died in Burnet County. Another person has died in the city of San Angelo in Tom Green County.

An unknown number of people remain missing, including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County, a Christian summer camp along the Guadalupe River.

Rescuers have already saved hundreds of people and would work around the clock to find those still unaccounted for, Texas governor Greg Abbott said.

But as rescue teams are searching for the missing, Texas officials are facing scrutiny over their preparations and why residents and summer camps for children that are dotted along the river were not alerted sooner or told to evacuate.

AccuWeather said the private forecasting company and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before the devastation, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.

The NWS later issued flash flood emergencies – a rare alert notifying of imminent danger.

“These warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,” AccuWeather said in a statement that called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.

But one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain, said Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management.”It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” he said.

Officials said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain, equivalent to months’ worth in a few short hours, insisting that no one saw the flood potential coming.

One river near Camp Mystic rose 22ft in two hours, according to Bob Fogarty, meteorologist with the NWS’s Austin/San Antonio office. The gauge failed after recording a level of 29.5ft.

“People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast,” Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said in a statement.

“We know we get rain. We know the river rises,” said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official. “But nobody saw this coming.”

Judge Kelly said the county considered a flood warning system along the Guadalupe River that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, before he was elected, but that the idea never got off the ground because “the public reeled at the cost”.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was asked during a news conference on Saturday whether the flash flood warnings came through quickly enough: “We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that is why we are working to upgrade the technologies that have been neglected for far too long.”

Presidential cuts to climate and weather organisations have also been criticised in the wake of the floods after Donald Trump‘s administration ordered 800 job cuts at the science and climate organisation NOAA, the parent organisation of the NWS, which predicts and warns about extreme weather like the Texas floods.

A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.

Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were “devastating”.

“Accurate weather forecasts matter. FEMA and NOAA matter. Because little girls’ lives matter,” said Frank Figliuzzi, a national security and intelligence analyst at Sky’s US partner organisation NBC News.

UK

How Prevent is tackling young extremism 20 years after the 7/7 bombings

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4 hours ago

July 6, 2025

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How Prevent is tackling young extremism 20 years after the 7/7 bombings

Radicalised nine-year-olds, teenagers mixing incel culture with extreme right ideologies and a Muslim who idolises Hitler – this is just some of the casework of those tasked with deradicalising young extremists in the UK.

Monday will mark 20 years since the 7/7 attacks on the London transport network when four suicide bombers killed 52 people and injured 770 others.

A year later the government set up its deradicalisation programme Prevent as part of its counter-terrorism strategy.

Sky News has spoken to two leading intervention providers (IPs) at Prevent who both say their work is getting ever more complex and the referrals younger.

The Metropolitan Police’s Prevent co-ordinator, Detective Superintendent Jane Corrigan, has also told Sky News it is “tragic” that when it comes to terrorism, “one in five of all our arrests is a child under 17”.

She believes parents should talk to their children about what they are reading and seeing online.

“Parents instinctively know when something doesn’t feel right when their child is becoming withdrawn or isolated – not wanting to engage,” she says.

People worried that someone they know has thoughts that could lead to terrorism can refer them to Prevent.

‘A pic-n-mix of ideologies’

Home Office figures show 11-year-olds are the largest age group to get referred.

Concerning cases are passed on to IPs such as Nigel Bromage who told Sky News: “Often there will be a pic-n-mix of ideologies.

“From my own examples and experience, we are aware of people looking at the incel culture and mixing that with some far-right elements.”

Incels, meaning “involuntary celibates” are men who have been unable to have a relationship with women despite wanting one and become misogynistic and hateful as a result.

Like many IPs, Mr Bromage from Birmingham comes from an extremist background himself, having once been a regional organiser for the proscribed Neo-Nazi group Combat 18.

For him too, it began as a child.

“It all started with someone giving me a leaflet outside my school gates,” Mr Bromage says.

“It told me a horrific story about a mum getting killed by an IRA bomb explosion – and at the end of the leaflet there was a call to action which said: ‘If you think it’s wrong then do something about it’.”

He developed a hatred for Irish republican terrorism which morphed into general racism and national socialism.

“At the very end I thought I was going to go to prison, or I would end up being hurt or even killed because of my political beliefs,” he says.

Boy, 9, groomed by his brother

Mr Bromage reveals his youngest case was a nine-year-old who had been groomed by his brother.

“He was being shown pro-Nazi video games, and his older brother was saying ‘when I go to prison or I get in trouble – they you’re the next generation – you’re the one who needs to continue the fight’,” he says.

“Really, he had no interest in the racist games – he just wanted to impress his brother and be loved by his brother.”

Every year, nearly 300 children who are 10 or younger are referred to Prevent.

Home Office figures show that over the last six years 50% of referrals were children under the age of 18.

Eleven-year-olds alone make up a third of total referrals, averaging just over 2,000 a year, with the figure rising even higher in the most recent stats.

Another IP, Abdul Ahad, specialises in Islamic extremism.

He says the catalyst for radicalisation often comes from events aboard.

Ten years ago, it was Syria, more recently Gaza.

“It is often a misplaced desire to do something effective – to matter, to make a difference. It gives them purpose, camaraderie and belonging as well – you feel part of something bigger than you,” he says.

Clients want someone to ‘hear them’

Some of his clients “don’t fit into any particular box”.

“I’m working with a guy at the minute, he’s a young Muslim but he idolises Hitler and he’s written a manifesto,” he says.

“When you break it down, some people don’t know where they fit in, but they want to fit in somewhere.”

Mr Ahad says the young individual mostly admires Hitler’s “strength” rather than his ideologies and that he was drawn to darker characters in history.

Often his clients are very isolated and just want someone to “hear them”, he adds.

Mr Ahad is also an imam who preaches at the Al-Azar Mosque in South Shields, a well-regarded centre for community cohesion and outreach.

He uses his understanding of the Islamic faith in his Prevent sessions to help guide his referrals away from extreme interpretations of the Koran by offering “understanding and context”.

He says: “We quote the correct religious texts – we explain their responsibility as a Muslim living in the UK and we re-direct their energies into something more constructive.”

Common theme of mental health issues

Mental health problems are a common theme among those referred to Prevent including depression and autism.

A recent inquest into the death of autistic teenager Rhianan Rudd found she took her own life after being radicalised by two white supremacists.

Her mother was critical of Prevent, as well as the police and MI5 after she had referred her daughter to the deradicalisation programme and Rhianan was subsequently charged with terrorism offences.

Last month a coroner found some failings in the processes around protecting Rhianan, but none of them attributable to Rhianan taking her own life.

Det Supt Corrigan says a referral doesn’t mean individuals end up being arrested or on an MI5 watchlist.

She says: “You’re not reporting a crime, but you are seeking support. I would say the earlier you can come in and talk to us about the concerns you have the better. Prevent is just that – it is a pre-criminal space.

“It’s tragic when you see the number of young people being arrested for very serious charges. Just look at terrorism – one in five of all our arrests is a child under the age of 17. We need to think about how we respond to that.”

Prevent has been criticised for failures such as when Southport killer Axel Rudakabana failed to be recognised as needing intervention despite three referrals, or when MP David Amiss’ killer Ali Harbi Ali went through the programme and killed anyway.

It’s harder to quantify its successes.

Mr Ahad says he understands why the failures hit the headlines, but he believes the programme is saving lives.

He says: “I think the vast majority of people get radicalised online because they are sitting in their room reading all this content without any context or scholarly input. They see one version of events and they get so far down the rabbit hole they can’t pull themselves out.

“I really wish Prevent was around when I was a young, lost 15-year-old because there was nothing around then. It’s about listening to people engaging with them and offering them a way of getting out of that extremism.”

‘Radicalisation can happen in days to weeks’

Det Supt Corrigan says: “I’ve sat with parents whose children have gone on to commit the most horrendous crimes and they all spotted something.

“Now, with hindsight, they wished they had done something or acted early. That’s why we created this programme, because radicalisation can happen in days to weeks.”

Twenty years on from 7/7 the shape of the terrorist threat has shifted, the thoughts behind it harder to categorise, but it is no less dangerous.

Sports

Volpe toss hits Judge as sloppy Yanks fall again

Published

5 hours ago

July 6, 2025

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Volpe toss hits Judge as sloppy Yanks fall again

Jorge CastilloJul 5, 2025, 09:42 PM ET
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NEW YORK — A blunder that typifies the current state of the New York Yankees, who find themselves in the midst of their second six-game losing streak in three weeks, happened in front of 41,401 fans at Citi Field on Saturday, and almost nobody noticed.

The Yankees were jogging off the field after securing the third out of the fourth inning of their 12-6 loss to the Mets when shortstop Anthony Volpe, as is standard for teams across baseball at the end of innings, threw the ball to right fielder Aaron Judge as he crossed into the infield from right field.

Only Judge wasn’t looking, and the ball nailed him in the head, knocking his sunglasses off and leaving a small cut near his right eye. The wound required a bandage to stop the bleeding, but Judge stayed in the game.

“Confusion,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “I didn’t know what happened initially. [It just] felt like something happened. Of course I was a little concerned.”

Avoiding an injury to the best player in baseball was on the Yankees’ very short list of positives in another sloppy, draining defeat to their crosstown rivals. With the loss, the Yankees, who held a three-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East standings entering June 30, find themselves tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for second place three games behind the Blue Jays heading into Sunday’s Subway Series finale.

The nosedive has been fueled by messy defense and a depleted pitching staff that has encountered a wall.

“It’s been a terrible week,” said Boone, who before the game announced starter Clarke Schmidt will likely undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.

For the second straight day, the Mets capitalized on mistakes and cracked timely home runs. After slugging three homers in Friday’s series opener, the Mets hit three more Saturday — a grand slam in the first inning from Brandon Nimmo to take a 4-0 lead and two home runs from Pete Alonso to widen the gap.

Nimmo’s blast — his second grand slam in four days — came after Yankees left fielder Jasson Dominguez misplayed a ball hit by the Mets’ leadoff hitter in the first inning. On Friday, he misread Nimmo’s line drive and watched it sail over his head for a double. On Saturday, he was slow to react to Starling Marte’s flyball in the left-center field gap and braked without catching or stopping it, allowing Marte to advance to second for a double. Yankees starter Carlos Rodon then walked two batters to load the bases for Nimmo, who yanked a mistake, a 1-2 slider over the wall.

“That slider probably needs to be down,” said Rodon, who allowed seven runs (six earned) over five innings. “A lot of misses today and they punished them.”

Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s throwing woes at third base — a position the Yankees have asked him to play to accommodate DJ LeMahieu at second base — continued in the second inning when he fielded Tyrone Taylor’s groundball and sailed a toss over first baseman Cody Bellinger’s head. Taylor was given second base and scored moments later on Marte’s RBI single.

The Yankees were charged with their second error in the Mets’ four-run seventh inning when center fielder Trent Grisham charged Francisco Lindor’s single up the middle and had it bounce off the heel of his glove.

The mistake allowed a run to score from second base without a throw, extending the Mets lead back to three runs after the Yankees had chipped their deficit, and allowed a heads-up Lindor to advance to second base. Lindor later scored on Alonso’s second home run, a three-run blast off left-hander Jayvien Sandridge in the pitcher’s major league debut.

“Just got to play better,” Judge said. “That’s what it comes down to. It’s fundamentals. Making a routine play, routine. It’s just the little things. That’s what it kind of comes down to. But every good team goes through a couple bumps in the road.”

This six-game losing skid has looked very different from the Yankees’ first. That rough patch, consisting of losses to the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels, was propelled by offensive troubles. The Yankees scored six runs in the six games and gave up just 16. This time, run prevention is the issue; the Yankees have scored 34 runs and surrendered 54 in four games against the Blue Jays in Toronto and two in Queens.

“The offense is starting to swing the bat, put some runs on the board,” Boone said. “The pitching, which has kind of carried us a lot this season, has really, really struggled this week. We haven’t caught the ball as well as I think we should.

“So, look, when you live it and you’re going through it, it sucks, it hurts. But you got to be able to handle it. You got to be able to deal with it. You got to be able to weather it and come out of this and grow.”