California has reached 1.5 million electric vehicle sales two years ahead of its planned 2025 target for the sales milestone, according to the California Energy Commission.
With EV demand soaring, California is not the first place to reach its EV sales goals early, and it won’t be the last.
The 2025 target was originally set in 2012 by then-Governor Jerry Brown. At the time, there was only one fully-electric vehicle for sale in California, the Nissan Leaf, with the Tesla Model S set to come out later that year. The Tesla Roadster had previously been for sale from 2008-2011 (though the company still had a few vehicles in inventory at the time).
At the time, the number of electric vehicles in California numbered in the thousands, nearly all of which had been sold in the preceding year, 2011. So an increase by three orders of magnitude seemed a tall order.
California’s EV market share for new cars so far this year stands at 21%, the highest in the US. This represents 40% of all zero-emission vehicles sold in the US. California has historically been responsible for about half of the total US EV share. In the US as a whole, EVs made up 5.6% of sales in 2022.
As of the end of Q1 2023, California now has 1,523,966 total EV sales, with 1,051,456 of those being battery-electric and the remainder mostly PHEVs, with some fuel cell cars mixed in. In Q1, a total of 124,053 EVs were sold, so the 1.5 million sales milestone was crested early this year.
California’s early achievement echoes that of Norway, which targeted an end to gas car sales in 2025, but was already basically there four years ahead of schedule. It may take some time for them to completely disappear, but as of 2022, ICE-only vehicles constituted less than 7% of total car sales in Norway.
Sales of ICE cars are so sparse in Norway that some companies have had to hastily pull their gas cars from the market, with Hyundai giving only a couple of days’ notice before ending ICE car sales nationwide.
And in China, despite a slow start, consumers are now rapidly adopting EVs. The country’s EV share has risen more steeply than in many other nations, leaving ICE-powered vehicles from foreign automakers rotting on lots, unsellable due to customer disinterest and looming emissions rules changes. Toyota’s new CEO recognized today that they have fallen behind in China.
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a planned 2035 ban on ICE-only vehicles in 2020. The ban was finalized last year, keeping the same 2035 target, though loosening it slightly to allow some PHEVs. And nationally, last week the EPA announced new emissions rules which could result in 67% of new car sales being electric in the US by 2032. However, the EPA stopped short of adopting California’s 2035 ban and instead set its regulation as a technology-agnostic emissions target, rather than a mandate of particular technologies.
Electrek’s Take
This is going to become a pattern elsewhere in the world, where lukewarm projections of EV demand will continue to catch companies and governments with their pants down (which is why we said “why not sooner?” to CA’s 2035 target).
For many years, automakers have assured us that EV demand just wasn’t there, and they’ve been proven wrong time and time again. It is clear that EV demand is much higher than anyone expected – well, anyone except for the EV-only manufacturers, us at Electrek, and various other EV advocates, who have all been shouting from the rooftops that this would happen and that manufacturers need to be ready.
And since manufacturing takes a long time to spin up, and car development has a several-year lead time, automakers need to be ready – not just for current demand but for demand years in the future.
Every EV target that gets met years ahead of schedule represents another warning to the industry that they need to be ready to accelerate their plans, lest they cede more market share to the automakers that are already prepared for EV demand – namely, the EV-only brands.
Even the EPA’s targets, which are strong but which we at Electrek consider to be eminently reachable and perhaps could be even stronger, are an acceleration from President Biden’s targets two years ago. The EPA decided that, due to advancements in technology, legislation, and the market, 50% was too low of a target for 2030 and that the US could reach 60% by then.
This 60% target means incumbent auto manufacturers will need to increase their 2030 production targets by about a third to keep up. We estimate that there is a gap of about 2 million cars in 2030 which will need to be filled with EVs that manufacturers are currently not planning to build.
But if market demand exceeds even those EPA targets, which it may well do given this history of regions exceeding EV goals, then manufacturers may have to commit to even higher EV percentages.
In short: manufacturers who have historically ignored EVs will continue to do so at their peril. Every piece of data we see shows that EVs are coming faster than the traditional industry expects, and despite a decade of confirmations showing this, many manufacturers still aren’t ready. If they want to survive, they need to step it up.
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That network of dependable high-speed chargers, paired with solid app integration that makes it easy for Tesla drivers to find available chargers just about anywhere in the US, gave the brand a leg up – but no more. By opening up the Supercharger network to brands like Ford, Hyundai, Kia, and others, Tesla has given away its biggest competitive advantage.
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Add in charging and route-planning apps like Chargeway, that make navigating the transition from CCS to NACS easier than ever with its intuitive colors and numbers and easy on/off switch for vehicles equipped with NACS adapters, and it feels like the time is right to start suggesting alternatives to the old EV industry stalwarts. As such, that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
Here, then, are my picks for the best Tesla S3XY (and Cybertruck) alternatives you can buy.
Less Model S, more Lucid Air
Lucid Air sedans; via Lucid.
Developed by OG Tesla Model S engineers with tunes from Annie Get Your Gun playing continuously in their heads, the Lucid Air promises to be the car Tesla should and could have built, if only Elon had listened to the engineers.
With panel fit, material finish, and overall build quality that’s at least as good as anything else in the automotive space, the Lucid Air is a compelling alternative to the Model S at every price level – and I, for one, would take a “too f@#king fast” Lucid Air Sapphire over an “as seen on TV” Model S Plaid any day of the week. And, with Supercharger access reportedly coming later this quarter, Air buyers will have every advantage the Supercharger Network can provide.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Less Model 3, more Hyundai IONIQ 6
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 Limited; via Hyundai.
Hyundai has been absolutely killing it these days, with EVs driving record sales and new models earning rave reviews from the automotive press. Even in that company the IONIQ 6 stands out, with up to 338 miles of EPA-rated range and lickety-quick 350 kW charging available to make road tripping easy – especially now that the aerodynamically efficient IONIQ 6 has Supercharger access through a NACS adapter (the 2026 “facelift” models get a NACS port as standard).
Once upon a time, Mrs. Jo Borrás and I were shopping three-row SUVs and found ourselves genuinely drawn to the then-new Model X. Back then it was the only three-row EV on the market, but it wasn’t Elon’s antics or access to charging, or even the Model X’s premium pricing that squirreled the deal. It was the stupid doors.
We went with the similarly new Volvo XC90 T8 in denim blue, and followed up the big PHEV with a second, three years later, in Osmium Gray. When it’s time to replace this one, you can just about bet your house that the new 510 hp EX90 with 310 miles of all-electric range will be near the top of the shopping list.
The sporty EV6 GT made its global debut by drag racing some of the fastest ICE-powered cars of the day, including a Lamborghini, Mercedes-AMG GT, a Porsche, even a turbocharged Ferrari – and it beat the pants off ’em. Combine supercar-baiting speed with an accessible price tag, NACS accessibility, $10,000 in customer cash on remaining 2024 models ($3,000 on 2025s) and just a hint of Lancia Stratos in the styling, the EV6 is tough to beat.
If you disagree with that statement and feel like driving a new Tesla Cybertruck is the key to happiness, I’m not sure an equally ostentatious GMC Hummer EV or more subtle Rivian R1T will help you scratch that particular itch – but maybe therapy might!
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BYD Shenzhen, the world’s largest car transport ship (Source: BYD)
Republicans launched multiple attacks against EVs, clean air and American jobs this week, at the behest of the oil industry that funds them. These attacks won’t be successful, and EVs will continue to grow regardless, and inevitably take over for outdated gasoline vehicles.
However, these republican attacks on EVs will still have some effect: they will diminish the US auto industry globally, leading to job losses and surrendering one of the jewels in the crown of American industry to China, where there is no similar effort to destroy its own domestic EV industry.
But they should inspire worry for Americans, because they will only harm the country’s domestic manufacturing base in the face of a changing auto industry.
Republicans keep trying to kill clean cars
The last time a republican occupied the the White House, we saw similar efforts to try to raise fuel and health costs for Americans, and to block superior EV technology from flourishing. That didn’t work in the end, and EVs continued to grow both during that period and after.
All the while, fossil fuels have maintained their privileged policy position, being allowed to pollute with impunity and costing the US $760 billion per year in externalized costs. Much of that subsidy is accounted for in the cost of pollution from gas cars, which are one of the primary uses of fossil fuels, which means that, in fact, gasoline vehicles receive much more subsidy than EVs do.
And yet, EVs still managed to grow substantially, despite these headwinds. EV sales have continued to grow, both in the US and globally, even as headlines incorrectly say otherwise. The republican party’s attempts to kill them were futile, and will continue to be.
It didn’t work, but it did delay progress
However, anti-EV actions from Mr. Trump and the republican party did manage to delay progress from where it could have been if America actually instituted smart industrial policy earlier.
Surely the American auto industry would be ahead of where it is now if those investments had had time to come online. But instead, republicans are currently trying to kill those jobs, which has already led to several manufacturing projects being cancelled this year, depriving Americans of the economic boost they need right now.
Meanwhile, there’s one place that this sort of stumbling isn’t happening: China.
China is taking advantage
China has spent more than a decade focusing on securing material supply, building refining capacity, developing their own battery technology, and encouraging local EV manufacturing startups.
This has paid off recently, as Chinese EVs have been rapidly scaling in production in recent years. It took a lot of the auto industry by surprise how rapidly Chinese companies have scaled, and how rapidly Chinese consumers have adopted them, after having an initially slow start.
But that adoption hasn’t just been local, it’s also global. Last year, China became the largest auto exporter in the world, taking a crown that Japan had held for decades. But the change was even more dramatic than that – as recently as 2020, China was the sixth-largest auto exporter in the world, just behind the US in 5th place.
China’s dramatic turn upward started in 2020, and now it’s in first place. Meanwhile, because of all the faffing about, the US remains exactly where it was in 2020 – still in fifth place. Well, sixth now, since China eclipsed us (and everyone else).
But tariffs have been tried before, and they didn’t work. When Japan had a similarly meteoric rise to global prominence as an auto manufacturer in the 1970s and 80s, largely due to their adoption of new technology, processes, and different car styles which incumbents were ignoring, the US tried to stop it with tariffs.
All this did was make US manufacturers complacent, and Japan still managed to seize and maintain the crown of top auto exporter (occasionally trading places with Germany) from then until now.
Then as now, the true way to compete is to adapt to the changing automotive industry and take EVs seriously, rather than giving the auto industry excuses to be complacent. But instead, republicans aren’t doing that, and in fact are working to ensure the American auto industry doesn’t adapt, by actively killing the incentives that were leading to a boom in domestic manufacturing investment.
US auto industry jeopardized by republicans
Make no mistake about it: destroying EV incentives, and allowing companies to pollute more and innovate less, will not help the US auto industry catch up with a fast moving competitor.
As we at Electrek have said for years, you cannot catch up to a competitor that is both ahead of you and moving faster than you.
It also applies to nations, which could have spent the last decade doing what the Chinese auto industry has been doing, but instead non-Chinese automakers have been begging their governments for more time, even though it’s not the regulations that threaten them, it’s competition from a new and motivated rival that is moving faster and in a more determined manner towards the future.
The way that we get around this should be clear: take EVs seriously.
But that’s not what republicans are doing, and in doing so, they are signing the death warrant for an important US industry in the long term.
Another thing republicans are trying to kill is the the rooftop solar credit, which means you could have only until the end of this year to install rooftop solar on your home before the cost of doing so goes up by an average of ~$10,000. So if you want to go solar, get started now, because these things take time and the system needs to be active before you file for the credit.
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International equipment manufacturer Vermeer has unveiled a full-scale prototype of its Interlune excavator, a machine designed to ingest 100 metric tons of rocks and dirt per hour, extracting valuable helium as it makes its way across the surface … of the Moon.
Helium plays a critical role in the manufacturing of semiconductors, chips, optics, and all the other stuff that makes EVs, autonomy, the Internet, and the rest of twenty-first century life possible. The problem is that, despite being the second-most common element in the universe, helium is pretty rare on Earth – and we are rapidly running out. As such, there are intense economic and political pressures to find new and reliable sources of helium somewhere, anywhere else, and that demand has sparked a new modern space race focused on harvesting helium on the Moon and getting it back home.
To that end, companies like American lunar mining startup Interlune and the Iowa-based equipment experts at Vermeer are partnering on the development of suite of interplanetary equipment assets capable of digging up lunar materials like rocks and sand from up to three meters below the surface, extract helium-3 (a light, stable isotope of helium believed to exist in abundance on the Moon), then package it, contain it, and ship it back to Earth.
“When you’re operating equipment on the Moon, reliability and performance standards are at a new level,” says Rob Meyerson, Interlune CEO. “Vermeer has a legacy of innovation and excellence that started more than 75 years ago, which makes them the ideal partner for Interlune.”
The company showed a scaled prototype of the machine at the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (above), emphasizing the need to develop new ways to operate equipment assets in the extreme temperatures of extraplanetary environments beyond diesel or even hydrogen combustion.
On the airless surface of the moon, it would be impossible for an internal combustion engine to operate on the moon’s surface because there is no oxygen for combustion. Electrically powered machines seem the obvious solution with solar power generation supplying the electricity. But the answer is not that simple.
Temperature changes on the surface of the moon are extreme. They can soar to 110° C and plummet to -170° C. Developing electric construction machinery to perform in this environment is no easy task, but Komatsu is tackling issues one by one as they appear. Using thermal control and other electrification technologies, we are engineering solutions.
Despite Komatsu’s apparent head start, however, Vermeer seem to pulled ahead – not just in terms of machine development, but in terms of extraction potential as well.
“The high-rate excavation needed to harvest helium-3 from the Moon in large quantities has never been attempted before, let alone with high efficiency,” said Gary Lai, Interlune co-founder and CTO. “Vermeer’s response to such an ambitious assignment was to move fast. We’ve been very pleased with the results of the test program to date and look forward to the next phase of development.”
Interlune is funded by grants from the US Department of Energy and NASA TechFlights. In 2023, the company received a National Science Foundation (NSF) Small Business Innovation Research award to develop the technology to size and sort lunar regolith (read: dirt). Interlune has raised $18 million in funding so far, and is planning its first mission to the Moon before 2030.
Electrek’s Take
Interlune helium harvester concept; via Interlune.
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