MLB Power Rankings: Who won the battle between this AL and NL power?
Just three weeks into the season, three teams — the Rays, Braves and Brewers — are in a tight race at the top of the MLB standings, with a number of surprising squads — such as the Rangers and Cubs — not far behind. Welcome to 2023!
Can these high-flying clubs keep up this momentum to further cushion their lead atop the majors? Or will historically dominant powers such as the Yankees and Dodgers soon catch up? Only time will tell.
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Joon Lee to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Record: 14-5
Previous ranking: 2
The Braves are rolling now and Sean Murphy, Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr. have been red hot, with Murphy looking like one of the best pickups of the offseason. But let’s zero in on Spencer Strider, who allowed one hit in six scoreless innings to beat the Padres on Tuesday. He leads the majors with 36 strikeouts (in just 22 innings) and has held batters to a .158 average. Yes, last season was no fluke. He now has made 24 career starts and allowed more hits than innings pitched in just three of them. He has been a little wild (4.5 walks per nine) and if he can find a little more economy in his pitch count, he can start going deeper into games. If that happens, he’s a clear Cy Young contender. — Schoenfield
Record: 16-3
Previous ranking: 1
They weren’t going to go 162-0. Their undefeated streak came to an end in Toronto, where the Blue Jays took two of three against the scorching hot Rays. While Wander Franco continues to help carry the offense, watch out for third baseman Taylor Walls, who leads the team in Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR) while hitting .350/.435/.700 with three homers, three doubles and one triple. Also off to a dominant start is right fielder Josh Lowe, who’s hitting .362/.412/.745 with four homers and six doubles, supplementing the offensive firepower from Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena. — Lee
Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 3
While Anthony Volpe still finds himself below the Mendoza Line, the rookie shortstop might have found a new home as the team’s leadoff hitter. Despite struggling to get hits, Volpe continues to make an impact on the Yankees. Among shortstops, he ranks fourth in defensive runs saved and sixth in walks drawn, and he has also stolen eight bases — all while showing strong discipline at the plate. If Volpe gets his bat going, watch out for the Yankees’ lineup. — Lee
Record: 12-7
Previous ranking: 9
Let’s be honest: Take out that Oakland series and it has kind of been a scuffling start for the Mets. That Friday game against the A’s was something else, though: The Mets drew 17 walks in a 17-6 victory. Yes, that was a franchise record, topping the 16 by the 1962 Mets in a 10-4 win over the Dodgers — and pitcher Jay Hook drew three walks himself that game. It was also the most walks in a game since the Diamondbacks drew 18 against the Phillies in 2013, except that game lasted 18 innings (shed a tear for the 18-inning game that no longer exists).
Only one team in the live ball era (since 1920) drew more walks in a nine-inning game: Cleveland, in a 13-4 victory over the Red Sox in 1948. Anyway, the Mets might need all those walks, because so far Pete Alonso (eight) and Francisco Lindor (four) are the only players to have more than two home runs. — Schoenfield
Record: 14-5
Previous ranking: 7
Milwaukee had the best week of any team in baseball. Winning series in both San Diego and Seattle, it matched the Cubs in terms of road dominance against West Coast teams, but the Brewers did it against playoff-caliber opponents. In the NL, they are third in ERA and third in runs scored. That says all you need to know about the NL Central’s first-place team. The Brewers’ balance is striking. The biggest surprises have come on offense, where eight different players have at least one home run — but none more than five — and 12 players have at least one double — but none more than three. This is far from the old days where it was the Christian Yelich show. Milwaukee is deeper than anyone knew. — Rogers
Record: 11-8
Previous ranking: 8
Matt Chapman continues his torrid start to the season, leading the league in bWAR and putting in strong performances both in the field and at the plate. The biggest difference for Toronto in 2023, however, could be the bat of Bo Bichette, who’s hitting .354/.384/.549 with four homers. Bichette struggled through much of the 2022 season and the Blue Jays felt the absence of his dynamic bat at times. If he can look like the player who put up 6.0 bWAR in 2021, this Blue Jays team will be in the World Series mix come October. — Lee
Record: 9-10
Previous ranking: 6
Tough break for Chas McCormick and the Astros after the team’s starting center fielder went on the injured list with a back problem. This came after he had to sit for a couple of contests with vision issues. The maladies interrupt the momentum of what was shaping up as a possible breakout season for the 28-year-old. McCormick is hitting .275/.383/.500 over 11 games with a pair of homers. Even more intriguing was that he seems to be taking advantage of the new base-stealing-friendly conditions in baseball, stealing four bags in four attempts during those games. That total matched his output in both of his two previous big league seasons. With McCormick out, Jake Meyers has center field all to himself, for the time being. — Doolittle
Record: 9-10
Previous ranking: 5
The Dodgers officially have a shortstop problem. It began with Gavin Lux, who tore his ACL during a spring training game and won’t play this season. Then Chris Taylor suffered an injury to his left side on Monday. And then Miguel Rojas tweaked his hamstring on Tuesday, ultimately landing on the injured list. How shallow is their depth at this critical position?
Well, when Mookie Betts returns from the paternity list, likely on Friday, he is expected to sub in at shortstop, a position he has not played since his minor league season of 2012. Betts has been clamoring to play shortstop for a while now, and the Dodgers believe he can handle it. It’s notable, though, that they need him to. — Gonzalez
Record: 9-11
Previous ranking: 4
Fernando Tatis Jr. will come off his suspension and make his long-awaited return at Chase Field in Phoenix on Thursday, joining Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts to form the most celebrated foursome in the sport. And it couldn’t come soon enough. The Padres are clearly lagging, losing six of their past eight games and totaling only two runs in their past 35 innings. Tatis, who homered five times in a stretch of seven at-bats during his stint in the minor leagues, should provide precisely the kind of spark this team needs. So can Joe Musgrove, though perhaps to a lesser extent. He’ll return to the Padres’ rotation on Saturday. — Gonzalez
Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 11
It’s too soon to make any bold declarations, but the early signs are that the Twins’ efforts over the past couple of years to piece together a contention-worthy rotation have paid off in what might be baseball’s best early-season group of starters. Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez both look like two of MLB’s most improved hurlers and Sonny Gray has been as good, if not better, than both of them. Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda have been solid as well.
Overall, the Twins are second in MLB in rotation bWAR. A team often criticized for its early hooks now is atop the majors in innings per start and average game score. If this keeps up, the American League Central might produce a bona fide AL pennant contender after all. — Doolittle
Record: 12-6
Previous ranking: 12
How long before we declare Texas for real? Its run differential is second only to the Rays in the AL — and the team hasn’t felt the impact of the loss of Corey Seager just yet. The Rangers won two of three in Houston over the weekend — a place they traditionally struggle — and then proceeded to pitch and hit their way to another series win in Kansas City. Marcus Semien is on fire, hitting three home runs and compiling a 1.278 OPS over the past seven days. His grand slam against the Astros put an exclamation mark on that series. Manager Bruce Bochy has his team rolling. — Rogers
Record: 10-9
Previous ranking: 10
We could have expected the Guardians to play a lot of close games, but they are taking the nail-biter genre to a whole new level. Sixteen of Cleveland’s first 19 games were decided by two or fewer runs, a total that dwarfs that of any other club in the majors. The Guardians have held their own in the close ones, going 9-7 in those contests, but for a team with serious postseason aspirations, this is no way to live. One thing that would give manager Terry Francona a little more breathing room would be for the moribund offense to get going. For that to happen, the Guardians need four lineup fixtures to rev it up after frigid starts: Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, Oscar Gonzalez and Josh Naylor. — Doolittle
Record: 11-8
Previous ranking: 14
The D-backs know they boast a dynamic offense and a solid defense and can only hope for a much-improved bullpen. But they’ll have a tough time contending in a thoroughly competitive NL West if they don’t get significant starting pitching contributions outside of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Some encouragement might be found in Drey Jameson, the 25-year-old right-hander who has allowed just four runs in 16 innings this season. Jameson, who cracked Kiley McDaniel’s most recent Top 100 Prospects list, has yet to be fully stretched, lasting no more than four innings. His walk rate has also been an issue. But contributions from young starting pitchers like him could be key for the D-backs this season. — Gonzalez
Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 17
Adley Rutschman might get the most attention on the Orioles, but he isn’t the team’s leader in WAR. That title goes to shortstop Jorge Mateo, who’s off to a hot start hitting .362/.418/.638 with three homers and eight stolen bases. Mateo ranks fourth in position player bWAR. After winning three of four against Oakland, Baltimore took two of three against the White Sox, keeping pace with the rest of the division. — Lee
Record: 11-6
Previous ranking: 18
The Cubs are hot. More impressive than hammering the lowly A’s on the road was their series win against the Dodgers this past weekend. Chicago was expected to have some decent pitching this season, but ranking second in the NL in ERA so far is a bit of a surprise. Having said that, the biggest early-season shocker is Cody Bellinger. After a three-year downward spiral, his hard work this past offseason has paid off. He’s no longer trying to launch balls out of the park as his swing has leveled off. Line drives are the norm for him — resulting in the first five-hit game of his career on Monday. — Rogers
Record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 15
Remember the “fun differential” Mariners of 2021? That club went 14-7 in extra-inning games and 33-19 in one-run games. Last year’s playoff team went 11-5 in extra innings and 34-22 in one-run games. The 2023 Mariners, however, are learning that regression is real.
They’re 0-4 in extra innings and 2-5 in one-run games. Some of that is the lack of bullpen depth and some of that is the lack of clutch hitting — Julio Rodriguez had a chance to win Tuesday’s game with a base hit with the bases loaded and two outs, for example, but grounded out — but mostly it was just extremely unlikely the Mariners would continue a two-year stretch of being the best team in baseball in extra-inning and one-run games. — Schoenfield
Record: 9-9
Previous ranking: 13
A sign of the Angels’ urgency to win this season could be found in one of their latest transactions. Zach Neto, a 2022 first-round pick who had accumulated just 201 minor league plate appearances, was called up on Saturday and served as the team’s starting shortstop at Fenway Park. David Fletcher, signed to a five-year extension two Aprils ago, was optioned to Triple-A in order to make room. The Angels have made the playoffs only once in the past 14 years and have been out of contention down the stretch for most of these past few seasons. This might be their final year with both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the two most transcendent talents in the sport. It needs to happen now, and they know it. — Gonzalez
Record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 16
We’ve seen this act before with the Cardinals. They can sleepwalk through a portion of the season but then turn it on. Could this year be different? Perhaps, as their weakness is in the most important aspect of the game: starting pitching. St. Louis starters are 4-9 with a 5.60 ERA. That latter figure ranks 13th in the NL. Odds are that St. Louis will get it together — it’s only April after all — but the starts by the Cubs, Brewers and even Pirates are making them look bad. At one point recently, four of five NL Central teams had a plus run differential — and none was named the Cardinals. That’s shocking, even this early. — Rogers
Record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 19
Trea Turner has hit just one home run (after slugging five in the World Baseball Classic). Nick Castellanos is without a home run. J.T. Realmuto has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 21-to-2. Bryson Stott is hitting well over .300 but with an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jake Cave is playing regularly. Bryce Harper is taking grounders at first base as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Just two starters have an ERA under 4.00: Matt Strahm and Taijuan Walker. Gregory Soto, Craig Kimbrel and Seranthony Dominguez have combined for 17 walks and 21 runs allowed in 23 innings. (Although Jose Alvarado has somehow not walked a batter while striking out 18 in 8 1/3 innings.) This is not the way the Phillies expected to start the season. Luckily, it’s still only April. — Schoenfield
Record: 9-10
Previous ranking: 21
Boston found life after being swept by the Rays, taking three of four games from the Angels this past weekend. Tuesday night provided a glimpse of hope for the Red Sox’s rotation with Chris Sale turning in his best start of the season — allowing one run, two walks, three hits and striking out 11 in six innings — after looking like a mess through his first three outings. After Sale started the season with an 11.25 ERA and struggled with command, Boston hopes the outing against Minnesota was a sign of things to come. — Lee
Record: 12-7
Previous ranking: 23
The loss of Oneil Cruz hasn’t slowed Pittsburgh down much. The Pirates split a four-game series on the road in St. Louis over the weekend and then hammered the Rockies in Colorado. Vince Velasquez had a great week, pitching 12 innings while giving up just eight hits and winning two games, including one in hitter-friendly Coors Field. Between those surprising starts and Johan Oviedo throwing seven innings of one-run ball, the Pirates rank in the top 10 in the NL in rotation ERA so far. They’ll take that in Pittsburgh. — Rogers
Record: 10-9
Previous ranking: 24
The Marlins are in a nice stretch here, with consecutive series wins over the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Giants. Most impressively, they’ve done that even though two of the three losses over nine games were suffered by Sandy Alcantara (including a nine-run outing against the Phillies). The other starters have been solid and the bullpen has been key to the team’s 5-0 record in one-run games.
The offense, aside from Luis Arraez, continues to have issues, ranking last in the NL in runs scored. Avisail Garcia is signed through 2025 at $12 million per season, but he was awful last season and worse this year — so the Marlins might just have to eat that contract. Jean Segura has also been completely ineffective, hitting below .200 without an extra-base hit. — Schoenfield
Record: 7-12
Previous ranking: 20
The White Sox are still trying to find their stride even as key players go in and out of the lineup with injuries. As Chicago continues to tread water, there have been a couple of saving graces during the first month of the season. One has been a division that once again looks like it’s going to be highly forgivable. The other is Jake Burger, whose power stroke is absolutely locked in right now.
Burger, who moved into a tie with Luis Robert for the team lead in homers (five), owned a 1.328 OPS over his first 10 games since getting the call from Triple-A. While Burger isn’t going to slug over .900 all season, it’s going to be tough to take him out of the lineup even when Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada return. Burger has produced super-elite exit velocities, including a 118 mph homer against the Phillies on Tuesday that was the second hardest-hit ball in the majors this season. Burger’s eventual role is uncertain, but in the meantime, his production has been manna for the beleaguered White Sox. — Doolittle
Record: 6-11
Previous ranking: 22
The Giants were scuffling heading into Tuesday, having lost four consecutive games, and then things got worse. Alex Wood caught his cleat on the turf in Miami and pulled his hamstring, landing on the IL because of it. Wood gave up only one earned run through his first two starts and looked sharp early on against the Marlins. Giants manager Gabe Kapler said it was “by far the most crisp he has been.” But now the Giants will look to move on without him. They’ve won only one of their six series this season. — Gonzalez
Record: 7-11
Previous ranking: 25
Cincinnati had one of those volatile weeks that happen in baseball. Not only did the Reds alternate between wins and losses from last Wednesday to this past Tuesday, they won three games by four or more runs and lost three games by five or more. After a good start to his season, lefty Nick Lodolo got hammered by the Rays on Tuesday. He gave up 12 hits and eight runs, but he and Hunter Greene should be mainstays in the Reds’ rotation for years to come as the latter player signed a long-term deal recently. Cincinnati is slowly — very slowly — starting to come out of a rebuild. Anything close to a .500 season would be a success story in ’23. — Rogers
Record: 7-10
Previous ranking: 29
There have been early signs that MLB will have a robust race for the bottom this season, even if some of those unusually lousy clubs have entered the chase involuntarily. At this time last week, the Tigers looked like one of the teams floundering. Not so fast! The Amazin’ Bengals reeled off five straight wins, all by one or or two runs, before dropping Wednesday’s game to Cleveland — by one run.
Despite that, it’s been a good week. Eduardo Rodriguez threw a gem against Cleveland in the second game of a doubleheader on Tuesday. Javier Baez showed some signs of life at the plate with seven hits, three doubles and six RBIs over a five-game span from last Wednesday through this Tuesday. Maybe this will prove to be the high point of the season in Detroit, or maybe the Tigers are just getting started. Either way, things look a whole lot different than they did seven days ago. — Doolittle
Record: 5-14
Previous ranking: 26
After winning their first two games of the season, the Rockies have three wins in a span of 17 games in April and are currently riding an eight-game losing streak. They’re barely walking, have yet to steal a base in April — even while the rest of baseball seems to be running wild — and sport a 6.35 ERA this month. Only the A’s pitching staff has been worse. Three of the Rockies’ starting pitchers — Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner and Jose Urena — have combined for an 10.62 ERA. Their promising young shortstop, Ezequiel Tovar, is slashing only .190/.254/.259. It’s not going great. But it is early. — Gonzalez
Record: 4-15
Previous ranking: 27
For most of the first few weeks of the Royals’ horrific start to the season, you had to squint so hard for signs of hope that you might have accidentally closed your eyes. But one of those signs of hope was the emergence of Kris Bubic as a possible rotation fixture. Alas, so often optimism is fertilizer for the weeds of disappointment. After two excellent early outings, Bubic turned up with diminished velocity in a drubbing at the hands of the Braves. Then he turned up on the IL with a left flexor strain. At press time, we don’t know how bad the injury is, but if you’re a Royals fan squinting for signs of hope, now might be a good time to go ahead and close those eyes altogether. — Doolittle
Record: 5-13
Previous ranking: 28
Joey Meneses was one of the feel-good stories of 2022, reaching the majors at 30 years old after playing in the minors since 2011 — and not only reaching the majors, but hitting .324 with 13 home runs in 56 games and becoming an instant fan favorite. Alas, the dream has not continued so far in 2023. He hit .370 with two home runs for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic but remains without a home run this season. There’s been some bad luck in the results, as his hard-hit rate is above the 80th percentile and his strikeout rate is better than average. He’s not getting the ball in the air enough, but he should start seeing more hits falling in. — Schoenfield
Record: 3-16
Previous ranking: 30
The biggest stories with the Athletics remain off the field. Yes, a possum did recently take up residence in the visiting team broadcast booth. But the bigger story in Oakland is that the fan base is planning a reverse boycott of the team in June, hoping to pack the Colosseum to show that there is a fan base for the A’s, if the organization fielded a competitive team. The fan base hopes to counteract the narrative that there aren’t any fans of the team left in Oakland and instead highlight that attendance struggles are the result of the club selling off many of its biggest stars over the course of the past decade. — Lee
The marathon has now become a sprint. Three weeks remain in the regular season and the chaos that has made this one of the more intriguing college football seasons in recent memory is set to deliver a thrilling, potentially chaotic final stretch.
Only three undefeated teams remain — Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M have all proven to be not just the cream of the crop but likely College Football Playoff shoo-ins, while behind them, a slew of teams are teetering on a thin line between being in or out.
This week features four ranked matchups that could shift the playoff picture dramatically. No. 9 Notre Dame’s margin for error is zero as it faces a 7-2 Pittsburgh team that is also eyeing a playoff spot — or according to Pat Narduzzi, the ACC championship. Iowa had its dreams dashed by Oregon last week, but now it’ll be USC which faces the No. 21 Hawkeyes in Los Angeles, knowing that if it wins out, USC will likely punch its ticket to its first CFP.
Meanwhile, two-loss, No. 10 Texas has surged back into the playoff picture, only to be faced with having to beat No. 5 Georgia in Athens this week. You can say the same thing about the two-loss, 11th-ranked Sooners; Oklahoma’s own outside shot at a playoff will require a win against No. 4 Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.
Buckle up. — Paolo Uggetti
Jump to:
Texas-Georgia | Key matchups
ACC title race | Quotes of the week
What have Texas, Georgia done well in conference play?
Texas: Texas and Arch Manning appeared to have found a groove in the play-action game, completing 86% of such throws, on 12.1 yards per attempt with three TDs and no interceptions against Vanderbilt versus 64% completion and 7.2 yards per play in the season’s first eight games, according to ESPN Analytics. Manning has eclipsed 300 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past two games, becoming the first Texas QB to do that since Sam Ehlinger in 2018.
Behind an improved offensive line, the Texas offense is much more efficient, and coach Steve Sarkisian praised the growth and maturity of Manning running the offense. But the defense, meanwhile, has struggled as of late. After allowing just 11.3 points per game in the first seven games, they’ve allowed 30 points in back-to-back games. The pass defense has been particularly leaky, allowing 382 yards to Mississippi State and 365 to Vanderbilt. — Dave Wilson
Georgia: Georgia’s defense was its shortcoming earlier this season, but the Bulldogs have played better lately on that side of the ball. After struggling to get off the field on third downs, Florida went only 2-for-11 on third down in Georgia’s 24-20 victory on Nov. 1. Last week, after giving up a touchdown to Mississippi State on its opening possession, the Bulldogs settled down and had three sacks in a 41-21 win. Last season, Georgia defeated Texas twice: 30-15 in Austin in the regular season and 22-19 in overtime in the SEC championship game.
Defense was the primary reason the Bulldogs won both of those games: They had 13 sacks combined and allowed the Longhorns to rush for fewer than 35 yards in each game. The Longhorns were only 2-for-15 on third down in the first loss. Georgia needs to continue to be disruptive on defense, shut down the running game again and get pressure on Manning to get him out of rhythm. — Mark Schlabach
What’s at stake in each matchup?
Iowa-USC: Despite getting dominated on the ground by Notre Dame to the tune of 306 yards in Week 8, USC has not gone away. It only has one conference loss — a two-point heartbreaker against Illinois earlier in the season — and now find itself with a very clear mandate: Win out and the Trojans can all but guarantee the program’s first ever College Football Playoff appearance.
The first obstacle in front of them is Iowa, which comes to Los Angeles after watching its own Big Ten and playoff chances evaporate in a close loss to Oregon. The Hawkeyes could not be more stylistically different than the Trojans and, like they did against Oregon, will try to slow down and muddy the game to their liking. If USC can’t establish a good rhythm on offense, it will have to try and beat Iowa at its own game.
Lincoln Riley’s team has one of the most effective offenses in the nation, leading to at least 30 points scored in all but one game this season. That happened against Nebraska a few weeks ago, but USC was still able to pull out a very Big Ten win with its defense. Chances are, the Trojans will be forced to do the same this Saturday if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. — Uggetti
Notre Dame-Pitt: Saturday’s showdown between No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 22 Pitt is, oddly enough, bigger for the Irish than the Panthers. As Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi noted in his weekly news conference, Notre Dame can utterly demolish Pitt, but Narduzzi’s squad will still have a ready path to the ACC title game and, thus, a playoff berth. Of course, that’s not a scenario worth counting on, and a win for Pitt would do wonders to erase the stain of a September loss to West Virginia and prop up an ACC desperately in need of something positive to cling to.
For Notre Dame, however, the stakes are far clearer: Its past two games of the season are against awful Syracuse and Stanford teams, making this matchup against Pitt all but a win-and-you’re-in contest for the Irish. The committee has Notre Dame safely in the field now, and it’s hard to envision how a 10-2 Irish team could fall down the playoff ladder, so this is probably the only serious hurdle remaining. It is a hurdle, however, particularly given Pitt’s exceptional pass rush, and if the Panthers can pull off the upset, it would have the opposite effect on Notre Dame, likely ending the Irish’s playoff hopes. — David Hale
Oklahoma-Alabama: Championships and CFP stakes are on the line when the Sooners travel to take on the Crimson Tide. But nobody has to tell either team that, particularly Alabama — which cost itself an at-large berth in the CFP last season after a disappointing 24-3 loss in Norman. During his news conference this week, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said he wants the players who played in that game to remember it because “our experiences help us be better the next time around.”
That certainly was the case earlier this year when Alabama beat Vanderbilt and Tennessee — two teams it also lost to a season ago. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson said he has gotten some advice on this Sooners defense from a good friend — Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Texas beat Oklahoma last month, 23-6, and Manning threw for 166 yards and a touchdown and ran for 34 more. Alabama can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win and losses by Georgia and Texas A&M.
As for Oklahoma, a win over Alabama for a second straight year would only serve to bolster its CFP résumé, particularly because the Sooners remain on the outside looking in for an at-large berth as of now. Though they rank in the top 12, two conference champions — presumably the ACC and the top Group of 5 team — would take the final two spots in the 12-team playoff. Oklahoma had an open date after its win over Tennessee to prepare for Alabama, though coach Brent Venables said there is little carry-over from its result against the Tide last year.
“The season for both of us is impacted by the result at the end of the night,” he said. “Who wouldn’t be excited to play Oklahoma-Alabama? Two of the most iconic programs in college football.” — Andrea Adelson
Why the road to the ACC title game is up for grabs
The ACC is a hot mess, and not in the fun contestant on “Love Island” sort of way. It’s more of the “Oh, no, what if Duke wins the conference championship and they give the playoff berth to James Madison instead?” sort of way.
In other words, these are dark times for the conference.
Set aside that two of the biggest brands in the league — Clemson and Florida State — are floundering through lost seasons.
Set aside that its four highest-ranked teams have all lost to unranked foes in the past two weeks.
Set aside the very real possibility that the eventual league champion might have a loss to UConn, West Virginia or Baylor.
Any one of those items would be bad enough. But it’s the fact that they’re all happening concurrently, that Miami is sabotaging itself again and injuries upended Louisville and Virginia runs, and Pat Narduzzi is waxing poetic about Notre Dame scoring 100 against Pitt — it’s a perfect storm of bad results, bad press and bad options remaining for the ACC.
Look at NC State, a team that’s stuck navigating a disappointing 5-4 campaign in which it lost to woeful Virginia Tech, but also has delivered brutal blows to both Virginia’s and Georgia Tech‘s playoff hopes and could add Miami to that list this weekend. There are no winners here!
There’s an argument that much of this is just a narrative issue, that when the SEC beats up on itself, it’s a testament to the conference’s depth, but when the ACC does it, it means everyone stinks. There’s some truth in that argument. But the results still tell a bleak story. Coming off a 2-11 bowl season in 2024, the ACC now has six losses outside of the Power 4 and a worse record in Power 4 nonconference wins than the American Conference. No wonder the ACC doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.
So now we peer into the future and wonder what comes next. Georgia Tech has the best odds of winning the league, according to FPI, at 35%. But next up is Duke at 20%. The Blue Devils have losses to Illinois, Tulane and UConn, and if they were to win it all, there’s a good chance the ACC gets passed by a second Group of 5 champion — something the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives a 26% chance of happening. The same might be true if SMU wins it. The Mustangs have the third-best odds at 19.5%, followed by Virginia (13.6%) and Pitt (4%). The highest-ranked ACC team, Miami, has the lowest title odds of teams with a chance to still win it, and has a better chance of making the playoff than the ACC title game.
In other words, the ACC Wheel of Destiny is back in action, Coastal Chaos has spread throughout the entire conference, and the next few weeks will either see a true favorite emerge or ensure the ACC is the most derided power league in recent memory. — Hale
Quotes of the week
“Absolutely not,” Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said when asked if Saturday’s visit from Notre Dame is a “must-win” game for the Panthers. “It’s not an ACC game. Glad you brought that up. I’d gladly get beat 103 … or 110-10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two. Again, our focus is on Notre Dame and getting as many wins as we can.”
“This team didn’t beat Texas,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of his Bulldogs, who swept Texas across two meetings in 2024. “And Texas hasn’t played this team of ours. So, two completely different teams in my opinion. I think it has zero effect on it.”
Texas A&M’s Mike Elko on South Carolina’s 2025 schedule, which ranks fourth in strength of schedule nationally, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index: “I don’t know what they did to the scheduling gods to get the schedule that they’ve got.”
“I was told about it. I haven’t heard it,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said of Clemson’s Dabo Swinney mimicking his voice over the weekend after Venables visited the program in Week 11. “He’s got me down. He’s got about everybody down. He’s good at the impressions.”
Dabo Swinney channeling his inner Brent Venables is pure gold pic.twitter.com/LwRQtAc4Nh
— Jordan Woodson (@Jordan_Woodson) November 9, 2025
“I’ve actually won a championship and we’re going to do it again,” Florida State’s Mike Norvell said in a passionate defense of his track record and the Seminoles’ trajectory. “We’re going to do it here. That might piss people off. So be it. They’ll be celebrating when we’re hoisting a trophy, and it will be the belief that I see from our players, the belief that I see from our coaches, the talent that I know that our players have, and the guys that are coming to be a part of this.”
“Getting ready for Wake Forest, that’s all I got this week,” said North Carolina‘s Bill Belichick following questions about potential interest in the New York Giants head coaching job.
“Look I’ve been down this road before,” Belichick continued. “I’m focused on Wake Forest, that’s it. That’s my commitment to this team. This week it’s Wake Forest, next week it’s that opponent and so forth. I’m here to do the best for this team.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 12 is here, and the board finally feels like it’s talking back. Some totals are whispering, some spreads are screaming and a couple of these games … well, they’re practically sending handwritten invitations.
This week’s card is a mix of unders (been loving my under lately) that make too much sense, a dog that plays like it wants to bite, and a few matchups where the math and the matchup actually agree for once.
Think of it as a little buffet of conviction.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Boise State team total UNDER 19.5
With Max Cutforth at quarterback, this offense simply loses its punch. His 4.4 yards per attempt and 51% completion rate limits the explosive abilities right now, it’s a unit trying to survive through the run game and short-field drives.
That’s a problem against a San Diego State defense that’s been elite at home. The Aztecs have allowed just 31 total points in their four home games, holding three opponents to seven points or less.
Their front should overwhelm a Boise State offensive line that’s given up 18 sacks on the season breaking in a new QB behind center. Boise State’s run game has been solid, but this matchup flips its strength against San Diego State’s biggest advantage, a front seven that wins early downs and forces third-and-longs.
San Diego State’s methodical pace also limits possessions. The math, the matchup and the trend all align. Boise State’s defense might keep it close, but the offense doesn’t have enough juice to cash this over.
Bet to make: Jacksonville State +3.5
The Gamecocks have found their rhythm with a ground game that is among the best in Conference USA, averaging 252 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry.
RB Cam Cook has been a steady force, while QB Caden Creel‘s mobility adds another layer that keeps defenses guessing. They don’t rely on big plays as much as they wear teams down with tempo, time of possession and physicality.
That style is exactly what can frustrate a Kennesaw State defense that has been solid overall but has shown cracks against run-heavy offenses late in games.
Jacksonville State has the game to survive close ones. The +3.5 provides cushion in what should be another possession-for-possession battle. If your bankroll allows for a bit more volatility, the +140 money line is worth a look.
Jacksonville State has the formula to control pace and pull off another outright win.
Bet to make: UCF team total Under 10.5
Texas Tech is built to smother teams like UCF. The Knights’ offense is running on fumes, and the matchup in Lubbock feels like walking into a buzzsaw.
The Knights are averaging 11.3 points per game in conference play on the road, with a drop-off that’s been steep from moving the ball between the 20s to completely stalling once they cross midfield. That’s the biggest red flag going up against a Texas Tech defensive front, led by David Bailey and Romello Height, that sits among the best in the country in pressure rate and sacks.
The problem is twofold: protection and finishing. UCF’s offensive line has struggled to handle pressure, and Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in sacks with 29 while leading the country in pressures. When you combine that with UCF’s 32% third-down rate, it paints a picture of a team that’s constantly behind the sticks, forced into long-yardage situations it can’t convert. Even if UCF moves the ball, red zone trips have been few and unproductive.
It’s hard to find a realistic path to 11 points for the Knights. Texas Tech has size, depth and energy at home. UCF’s offense simply doesn’t.
Bet to make: TCU team total Under 23.5
BYU’s entire identity is built on reducing possessions, winning with efficiency and forcing opponents into long fields. Its defense is not elite on a yards basis, but it tightens in the red zone and creates game-changing moments with sacks and interceptions. Add it up, and 21 sacks, 12 interceptions and a positive turnover ratio tell you this defense plays opportunistic football.
The other piece of this is BYU’s offense, which runs for 200 yards per game and controls time of possession. That’s a huge part of why I lean under rather than a side. If BYU plays its game, it shrinks the possessions and keeps opponents to eight or nine true scoring opportunities. TCU needs efficiency to break 24 points. The Horned Frogs haven’t been that team away from home.
BYU’s defense gets the pricing respect. TCU’s total is shaded to the under and BYU is favored because its style travels and its defense sustains it.
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