The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?
Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?
From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?
The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.
Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.
Next, Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.
Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.
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Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.
But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.
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Image: Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.
As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.
So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.
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Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia
Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.
The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.
Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.
Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.
Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.
The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.
The death toll from a fire that tore through a Hong Kong apartment complex has risen.
Investigators are searching for bodies in the residential towers of Wang Fuk Court, where the blaze erupted on Wednesday.
Authorities say 146 bodies have now been found, rising from a previous reported total of 128.
Image: A girl places flowers in front of the fire-damaged residential blocks at Wang Fuk Court. Pic: Reuters
Shuk-yin Tsang, the head of the Hong Kong police casualty unit, said another 100 people remained unaccounted for, and 79 people were injured.
Flames spread through seven of the eight towers of the complex, and the fire was not fully extinguished until Friday.
Police said they had completed searches through four of the affected buildings.
But a city official said they expected the search process to take three to four weeks.
Image: People line up to offer flowers and prayers for the victims of the fire at Wang Fuk Court. Pic: AP
The burnt towers
Cheng Ka-chun, the police officer leading the search, said bodies had been found both in apartments and on the roofs.
He said: “It is so dark inside, and because of the low light, it is very difficult to do the work, especially in places away from the windows.”
Before the fire broke out, the towers had been undergoing renovations and were clad in bamboo scaffolding, draped with nylon netting, with windows covered by polystyrene panels.
Residents say they repeatedly warned about the potential flammability of the materials, but were told by the authorities that they faced “relatively low fire risks”.
Image: Smoke rises after a fire broke out at Wang Fuk Court. Pic: AP
Image: Firefighters work to extinguish the fire. Pic: AP
Now the authorities are investigating whether fire codes were violated amid growing public anger over the blaze.
Beijing has warned it will use a national security law to crack down on any “anti-China” protests that result.
Eyewitness: Hong Kong mourns those lost to fire
Grief was not lonely today in Hong Kong. Three days after the worst fire in the history of modern Hong Kong, it feels as though it has barely sunk in.
The weekend at least lent them time to pay tribute, and gave them some space to reflect.
People came in droves to lay flowers, so many a queuing system was needed.
Official books of condolences were also set up in multiple parts of the city.
Over 1,000 people turned out on Sunday to pay tribute to the victims of the fire, which was Hong Kong’s deadliest in more than 75 years.
Mourners queued for more than a kilometre to lay flowers, some with sticky notes attached addressed to the victims.
Image: People leave notes with well-wishes after the deadly fire. Pic: Reuters
Joey Yeung, whose grandmother’s apartment burned in the fire, asked for justice.
The 28-year-old said: “I can’t accept it. So today I came with my father and my family to lay flowers.
“I’m not asking to get anything back but at least give some justice to the families of the deceased – to those who are still alive.”
Another mourner, Lian Shuzheng, said: “This really serves as a wake-up call for everyone, especially with these super high-rise buildings.”
Image: People offer flowers for the victims. Pic: AP
Image: People offer flowers and pray for the victims. Pic: AP
‘Serious deficiencies’ in safety
An online petition demanding an independent probe into possible corruption and a review of construction oversight drew over 10,000 signatures before it was closed.
Another petition with similar demands attracted more than 2,700 signatures with its plea for “explicit accountability” from the government.
City officials have announced they were suspending 28 building projects undertaken by the contractor that was renovating Wang Fuk Court, the Prestige Construction & Engineering Company.
They said the fire had “exposed serious deficiencies” in the safety of the company’s sites, “including the extensive use of foam boards to block up windows during building repairs”.
Image: The burned towers and makeshift flower memorial. Pic: Reuters
The day after the fire broke out, two directors and an engineering consultant from a construction firm were arrested on suspicion of manslaughter.
Police said they also suspected the company’s leaders of gross negligence, without identifying the firm by name.
The three men were released on bail, but then rearrested by Hong Kong’s anti-corruption authorities, who made a further eight arrests.
Venezuela has accused Donald Trump of a “colonial threat” after he said the airspace “above and surrounding” the country should be considered closed “in its entirety”.
Mr Trumpmade the declaration amid growing tensions with President Maduro – and as the US continues attacking boats it claims are carrying drugs from Venezuela.
He wrote on Truth Social: “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.”
Image: Air traffic above Venezuela on Saturday afternoon. Pic: FlightRadar24
Venezuela’s foreign affairs office called it a “colonial threat” and “illegal, and unjustified aggression”.
It accused the president of threatening “the sovereignty of the national airspace… and the full sovereignty of the Venezuelan state”.
President Trump’s words were part of a “permanent policy of aggression against our country” that breached international law and the UN Charter, it added.
The Pentagon and the White House have so far not given any additional detail on the president’s statement.
Mr Trump’s post comes after the American aviation regulator last week warned of a “potentially hazardous situation” over Venezuela due to a “worsening security situation”.
Image: Nicolas Maduro is widely considered a dictator by the West. Pic: Reuters
The South American nation revoked operating rights for six major airlines that went on to suspend flights to the country.
Mr Trump warned a few days ago that land operations against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers would begin “very soon”.
Such a move would be a major escalation in Operation Southern Spear – the US naval deployment in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific that’s so far attacked at least 21 vessels.
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Three killed as US strikes another alleged drug boat
Venezuela has said the attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder.
The US has released videos of boats being targeted, but hasn’t provided evidence – such as photos of their cargo – to support the smuggling claims.
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Venezuela claims Trump creating ‘fables’ to justify ‘war’
The Pentagon has sought to justify the strikes by labelling the drug gangs as “foreign terrorist organisations” – putting them on par with the likes of al Qaeda.
It claims the boats targeted are carrying drugs bound for the US, although Sky’s chief correspondent says the final destination is likely to be Europe and West Africa.
President Maduro has denied Mr Trump’s claims he is involved in the drugs trade himself and said his counterpart wants to oust him so he can install a more sympathetic government.
Venezuelan officials have also claimed Mr Trump’s true motivation is access to the country’s plentiful oil reserves.
Mr Maduro is widely considered a dictator who’s cheated elections and has been president since 2013.
Ukraine’s representatives are preparing for renewed peace talks in the US, while dramatic footage has shown Russian tankers being hit by naval drones.
President Zelenskyy said a delegation headed by national security chief Rustem Umerov was on its way to “swiftly and substantively work out the steps needed to end the war”.
They are due to be greeted by US secretary of state Marco Rubio, Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and the US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, a senior US official told Reuters news agency.
Image: National security chief Rustem Umerov is leading the delegation. Pic: Reuters
After the US-Ukraine talks, an American delegation is expected to travel to Moscow to meet President Putin.
It comes after Mr Trump released a 28-point proposal last week that would hand swathes of land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military.
It was widely seen as heavily favouring Russia and led Mr Zelenskyy to swiftly engage with American negotiators.
President Trump said on Tuesday his plan had been “fine-tuned”.
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Ukraine peace plan in 60 seconds
In his evening address on Saturday, the Ukrainian leader said: “The American side is demonstrating a constructive approach, and in the coming days it is feasible to flesh out the steps to determine how to bring the war to a dignified end.”
Mr Zelenskyy’s team in the US is without his former chief of staff and lead negotiator, Andrii Yermak, as he quit on Friday after officials raided his home amid a corruption scandal.
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What do we know about Ukraine’s corruption scandal?
Tankers hit by ‘Sea Baby’ drones
Ukrainian drones were shown hitting two of Russia‘s so-called “shadow fleet” oil tankers in the Black Sea in footage released on Saturday.
Friday’s attack was carried out by the country’s security service and its navy, an official told Reuters. They said both ships “sustained critical damage” that took them out of service.
A security source told Associated Press that domestically-made “Sea Baby” drones were used.
The tankers were under sanctions and heading to a Russian port to load up with oil destined for foreign markets, the official said.
They have been identified as the Kairos and Virat.
Image: The blasts hit tankers off Turkey’s Black Sea coast. Pic: Turkish Directorate General for Maritime Affairs/Reuters
The 274m-long Kairos suffered an explosion and caught fire en route from Egypt to Russia on Friday, Turkey’s transport ministry said. The crew was evacuated.
The Virat was reportedly struck about 35 nautical miles offshore.
It was attacked by unmanned vessels and sustained minor damage to its starboard side, the Turkish ministry said.
Russia deploys a fleet of often ageing, uninsured and unmarked tankers to circumvent sanctions on its oil exports, which continue to help pay for the Ukraine war.
Another Ukrainian attack halted operations at an oil terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk on Saturday.
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1:30
Russian drone and missile attack hits Kyiv
Andriy Kovalenko, from Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, said special forces were responsible.
“Naval drones managed to destroy one of the three oil tanker berths of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in the Novorossiysk area,” he wrote on Telegram.
Six killed in aerial attacks on Ukraine
Russia carried out another onslaught on the Ukrainian capital overnight into Saturday, firing 36 cruise and ballistic missiles and launching around 600 drones.
Officials said three people were killed in and around Kyiv, two in the Dnipropetrovsk region and one in a midday attack in Kherson region in the south.
Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 29 others were injured in Kyiv, largely due to falling debris from intercepted drones hitting buildings.
The attacks also hit Ukrainian energy facilities and left hundreds of thousands without power in the capital. Supplies have since been restored.
Targeting such infrastructure has become a familiar tactic from Russia over the winter, in what Ukraine officials say is the “weaponising” of the cold.