Ukraine will struggle to win the war and Russia will struggle to lose, increasing pressure for a negotiated solution
The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?
Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?
From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?
The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.
Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.
Next, Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.
Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.
Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.
But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.
Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.
As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.
So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.
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Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia
Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.
The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.
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Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.
Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.
Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.
The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.
World
Joe Biden allows Ukraine to begin firing US rockets deep into Russia – as politician warns it ‘risks World War Three’
Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine to begin firing US-supplied rockets deep into Russia – as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to push for “further support” for Kyiv at the G20 summit.
Mr Biden’s policy shift means Kyiv will now be able to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for long-range attacks, two American officials have told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.
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Ukraine plans to conduct its first such attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns.
The US has eased restrictions on the use of ATACMS, which have a range of up to 190 miles, after Russia began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces in the conflict.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said such a move would deepen America’s involvement in the war.
“It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to… continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict,” Peskov said.
Joe Biden meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in September last year. Pic: AP
The development was also condemned by Biden officials as a possible expansion of the war.
A Russian politician and the son of President-elect Donald Trump have both likened the move to risking a third world war.
Maria Butina told the Reuters news agency: “These guys, Biden’s administration, is trying to escalate the situation to the maximum while they still have power and are still in office.
“I have a great hope that Trump will overcome this decision if this has been made because they are seriously risking the start of World War Three which is not in anybody’s interest.”
Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr wrote on X: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives… Imbeciles!”
The outgoing Biden administration’s move comes as there are concerns about the level of support the Trump White House may be willing to give Ukraine.
Mr Trump has previously vowed to limit US support for Ukraine and end its war with Russia.
In an evening address after Kyiv was given permission to fire deep into Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Today, there’s a lot of talk in the media about us receiving permission for respective actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves. They certainly will.”
Back in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin said if the US were to lift the ban on long-range missile use it would be seen as NATO’s “direct participation” in the war.
He added: “This, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.”
The US military tests an early version of an Army Tactical Missile System in 2021. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, the UK prime minister has said he has “no plans” to speak with the Russian president as world leaders gather for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
Mr Putin will not be attending the two-day summit which starts on Monday after saying in October that his presence would “disrupt the normal work of this forum”. Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will be attending instead.
It will take place days after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Mr Putin on what was the Russian leader’s first publicly announced conversation with the sitting head of a major Western power in nearly two years.
Asked if he had any plans to make a similar call, Sir Keir said: “It’s a matter for Chancellor Scholz who he speaks to. I have no plans to speak to Putin.”
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Firefighters work at the site of a residential area hit by a Russian missile strike in the Lviv region of Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
Speaking to reporters while on his way to the summit, he added: “We are coming up to the 1,000th day of this conflict on Tuesday.
“That’s 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of huge impact and sacrifice in relation to the Ukrainian people and recently we’ve seen the addition of North Korean troops working with Russians which does have serious implications.
“I think on one hand it shows the desperation of Russia, but it’s got serious implications for European security […] and for Indo-Pacific security and that’s why I think we need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that’s top of my agenda for the G20.
“There’s got to be full support as long as it takes and that certainly is top of my agenda, shoring up that further support for Ukraine.”
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One of Russia’s ‘largest air attacks’
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The latest developments come after Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on Sunday, with Mr Zelenskyy claiming Moscow had launched a total of 120 missiles and 90 drones.
Two major strikes, which left a total of 18 people dead, hit a residential building in the northeastern city of Sumy as well as energy infrastructure across Ukraine, prompting emergency power cuts.
Hours later, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russia’s air defence units had destroyed a drone heading towards the city.
World
It’s a stunning shift in US policy – but Biden’s announcement will trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow
Joe Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied, long-range missiles inside Russia will be cheered by Kyiv and will almost certainly prompt the UK to follow suit.
But the stunning shift in US policy – just weeks before Donald Trump takes over as US president – will also trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow at a time of increasing uncertainty about the future course of its war.
President Vladimir Putin has warned the West they would be playing with fire if they allowed Ukrainian forces to launch Western-supplied cruise and ballistic missiles at Russia, saying it could even trigger a global conflict.
British and US officials, though, have repeatedly advised their respective capitals not to be intimidated by Moscow’s sabre rattling.
Ukraine war latest: Biden lifts ban on Russia strikes
Yet there has been hesitancy, particularly in Washington, over the unleashing of US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles beyond the borders of Ukraine.
However, it seems that a move by North Korea to send thousands of its troops to fight with Russia has changed US calculations.
Joe Biden delivered his remarks in Brazil. Pic: Reuters
The New York Times, which was among the US media organisations to break news of the Biden administration’s decision on long-range missiles, reported that the first time the American weapons will be used inside Russia will likely be against Russian and North Korean troops battling a Ukrainian incursion in the Russian region of Kursk.
While a significant step up in support for Ukraine, the ability to use American long-range missiles inside Russia is not a war-winning development.
But it does expand Kyiv’s capacity to hit important military targets deliberately positioned by Russian commanders far back from the frontline. This includes stockpiles of missiles, drones and other ammunition used to strike Ukraine.
Just as important as the military impact, though, is the political signal that the US decision sends to the Kremlin about Washington’s willingness to defy Russian warnings about dire consequences should Mr Biden dare to grant Ukraine the permission it’s so long been seeking.
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‘The missiles will speak for themselves’
The dramatic move by the US comes after months of lobbying by Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A key thing to watch now will be how Mr Putin reacts the first time an American missile kills Russian soldiers on Russian soil.
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Moscow does not want a direct war with the United States and NATO – nuclear-armed forces with far greater combined firepower – but the Kremlin could well ramp up an already heightened campaign of sabotage and other forms of hybrid warfare across Europe.
Another important reaction to track will be how Mr Trump responds to Mr Biden’s move and whether he continues to allow Ukraine this permission once he takes over as the US commander-in-chief.
The president-elect has vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine quickly but he has not said how. Yet he has voiced fierce opposition to the continued gifting of vast quantities of American weapons to the Ukrainian military.
It is a reason perhaps for Ukraine to make use of its new freedoms with US missiles as quickly as possible.
An acclaimed Russian ballet dancer has died aged 39 after reportedly falling off a balcony.
Vladimir Shklyarov, one of the world’s top male ballet stars, died on Saturday night, according to the Mariinsky Theatre, where he was a principal dancer.
The St Petersburg theatre said: “It is with profound sadness that the Mariinsky Theatre announces the untimely passing of principal dancer Vladimir Shklyarov.
“Shklyarov, a beloved artist and audience favourite, died tragically on 16 November.
“His loss is deeply felt by the entire Mariinsky family and the wider ballet world.”
The Mariinsky Theatre told Sky News Shklyarov had a back injury at the time, and was due to have “complicated spinal surgery” on Monday 18 November. He was “taking serious pain medication”.
A spokesperson for the theatre was reported in Russian media at the weekend as saying he had fallen from the fifth floor of a building.
Vladimir Shklyarov performing in London in 2009, with fellow dancer Alina Somova. Pic: Reuters
Dancers have been paying tribute to Shklyarov, who was married to fellow company dancer Maria Shklyarov, with whom he had two children.
Former ballerina Irina Bartnovskaya said Shklyarov had been at home, on pain relief, preparing for foot surgery at the time of his death.
In a post on Telegram, she continued: “He went out onto the balcony to get some air and smoke, lost his balance (a very narrow balcony) and fell down (from the 5th floor).
“Stupid, unbearable accident.”
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Diana Vishneva, a ballerina at the Mariinsky Theatre, was also among those paying tribute.
She said: “This tragedy brings only tears and sadness.”
According to state-run news group RIA Novosti, an investigation has been launched into the death.
The outlet also said that the preliminary cause of death was believed to be an accident.
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