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The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?

Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?

From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?

The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.

Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.

Next, although Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.

Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.

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Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.

But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.

Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
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Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war

Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.

As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.

So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.

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Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia

Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.

The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.

Read more:
‘They didn’t let me say goodbye – it’s been a year since I saw my mum’

How 15 Ukrainian orphans escaped Russia, and the thousands left behind
NATO allies ‘agree Ukraine will become member’

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Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.

Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.

Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.

The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.

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Hamas official thanks Donald Trump for peace deal – but tells Sky News Tony Blair not welcome

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Hamas official thanks Donald Trump for peace deal - but tells Sky News Tony Blair not welcome

A senior Hamas official has thanked President Donald Trump for his role in securing a peace deal with Hamas.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News’ lead world news presenter Yalda Hakim, senior Hamas official Dr Basem Naim also warned that former UK Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair would not be welcome in any post-war role for Gaza.

Dr Naim said a ceasefire would not have been possible without President Trump, but insisted he needed to continue to apply pressure to Israel to stick to the agreement.

He added that Hamas would be willing to step aside for a Palestinian body to govern a post-war Gaza, but that they would remain “on the ground” and would not be disarmed.

Dr Naim said in the interview: “Without the personal interference of President Trump in this case, I don’t think that it would have happened to have reached the end of the war.

“Therefore, yes, we thank President Trump and his personal efforts to interfere and to pressure Netanyahu to bring an end to this massacre and slaughtering.”

He added: “We believe and we hope that President Trump will continue to interfere personally and to exercise the maximum pressure on [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to fulfil the obligation.

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“First, as according to the deal, and second, according to the international law as an occupying power, because I think without this, without this personal interference from President Trump, this will not happen.

“We have already seen Netanyahu speaking to the media, threatening to go to war again if this doesn’t happen, if that doesn’t happen.”

Donald Trump has been thanked for his role in securing a peace deal in Gaza. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump has been thanked for his role in securing a peace deal in Gaza. Pic: AP

Dr Naim said that weapons would only be handed over to the Palestinian state, with fighters integrated into the Palestinian National Army.

He reiterated that Hamas would not disarm as this could not guarantee the safety of Palestine.

Dr Naim said: “Our weapons are going to be handed over only to the hands of a Palestinian state, and our fighters can be integrated into the Palestinian National Army.

“No one has the right to deny us the right to resist the occupation of armies.”

He added: “We are not going to be disarmed as long as we are not sure that this will lead, by any other means, to having an independent self state which is able to defend itself.”

But he criticised plans for Sir Tony to play any role in the future of Gaza, saying that Hamas and Palestinians were angered by his role in previous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Dr Naim added: “When it comes to Tony Blair, unfortunately, we Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims and maybe others around the world have bad memories of him.

“We can still remember his role in killing, causing thousands or millions of deaths to innocent civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“We can still remember him very well after destroying Iraq and Afghanistan.”

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Thousands of Gazans are heading north as Israeli troops pull back.

Under Mr Trump’s plans, Sir Tony would form part of an international supervisory body.

The international body, the Council of Peace or Board of Peace, would govern under plans approved by Mr Netanyahu.

The body would hold most power while overseeing the administration of Palestinian technocrats running day-to-day affairs.

It would also hold the commanding role of directing reconstruction in Gaza.

Sir Tony Blair has been told he would not be welcome in a post-war Gaza
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Sir Tony Blair has been told he would not be welcome in a post-war Gaza

Dr Naim added that Hamas was satisfied Mr Trump’s plan would achieve peace in Gaza.

But he said it could never be fully satisfied after accusing Israel of genocide.

Israel has continually denied this, claiming it has been fighting Hamas terrorists to defend itself following the October 7 massacre in 2023.

On that day, Hamas gunmen stormed southern Israel killing 1,200 people and taking many Israelis hostage.

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Could the Gaza deal lead to something even bigger?

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Could the Gaza deal lead to something even bigger?

This is a historic moment for the Middle East. The coming days will be crucial. 

Critical for the immediate success of Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan. But also for hopes it could lead to something even more important, progress towards a broader peace.

There is plenty that could still go wrong. But so far so good.

Follow the latest updates on the Gaza ceasefire deal

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‘Things moving rapidly’ in Gaza as ceasefire takes effect

Hamas seems ready to give up its hostages believing American assurances Israel will not start the war again when they have.

And Israel is withdrawing its forces on the lines outlined in the deal.

If the deal does hold then what next?

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Here are the most pressing questions.

What becomes of Hamas? It is meant to disarm and not be part of any future government in Gaza. What if it goes back on that? What if it retreats to the shadows, regroups and rearms and goes back to its old ways?

Then, who is going to keep the peace? The plan is for an international peacekeeping force overseen by the Americans but not involving US troops on the ground, using soldiers from Arab countries and Turkey instead.

Will that force materialise and will it be effective? The history of peacekeeping operations in the region is not an encouraging one.

Then how is Gaza going to be run?

There’s been talk of a government of technocrats, people who know how to get things done, and of an oversight board run by President Trump, and of Tony Blair coming in as governor.

It will be a massive task. Rebuilding Gaza will cost billions of dollars and at the moment plans seem vague at best.

It could all come unstuck.

But then again, there are reasons for some optimism. Could this breakthrough lead to more sustained progress in efforts to build a lasting peace?

October 7th and the events that followed it including the Gaza war have changed so much in the Middle East.

Events have laid bare the utter futility of the past.

Read more:
How withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza could work
How two years of war have shattered the Gaza Strip

Israel’s policy of dividing and ruling the Palestinians and weakening them so they could never form their own state has ended in tragedy and colossal failure.

Hamas has brought its people nothing but misery and carnage.

There is on both sides a yearning for a new start.

There is also an American president who is prepared to put massive pressure on Israel unlike his predecessors and who is hungry for peace.

The region is lining up to push the chances of peace. President Trump has galvanised the likes of Turkey, Egypt and nations in the gulf.

In Israel there may be a fresh start. Its hardline right-wing government might have to give way to new leaders with new ideas.

And the country most likely to wreck the chances of progress, Iran, is massively weakened, pummelled by Israeli air power, and its allies and proxies humbled.

We should not over-egg the chances of further progress. In this rough neighbourhood there is always a multitude of reasons why this multi-stage deal might still fall apart, let alone lead to a much bigger peace.

But there is a chance now. The past two years have broken up the Middle East and so many of its old rules of operating. Putting it back together offers an opportunity.

It will require a huge amount of political will and leadership but there is the chance however slim of remaking the region in a way that gives its people a better future.

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Tennessee: Multiple people killed and others missing after explosion at military munitions plant

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Tennessee: Multiple people killed and others missing after explosion at military munitions plant

Multiple people have been killed and others are missing after an explosion at a Tennessee military munitions plant.

Secondary explosions have forced rescuers back from the burning site at Accurate Energetic Systems, according to the Hickman County Sheriff’s Office.

Humphreys County Sheriff Chris Davis told a news conference: “We do have several people at this time unaccounted for.

“We are trying to be mindful of families and that situation. We do have some folks. We can confirm that we do have some that are deceased.”

The explosion was reported at 7.45am in Hickman County on Friday. Pic: WTVF-TV / AP
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The explosion was reported at 7.45am in Hickman County on Friday. Pic: WTVF-TV / AP

The cause of the blast, which occurred at 7.45am on Friday (1.45pm in the UK), was not immediately known.

Video from the scene showed flames and smoke billowing from a field of debris.

Emergency crews were initially unable to enter the Tennessee plant because of continuing explosions, Hickman County Advanced MT David Stewart said.

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Pics: WTVF-TV / AP
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Pics: WTVF-TV / AP

Residents in Lobelville, a 20-minute drive from the scene, told the Associated Press that they felt their homes shake and some people captured the loud boom of the explosion on their home cameras.

Gentry Stover, who was woken from his sleep by the blast, said: “I thought the house had collapsed with me inside of it.

“I live very close to Accurate and I realised about 30 seconds after I woke up that it had to have been that.”

Read more from Sky News:
Hamas official tells Sky News Tony Blair not welcome
Liam Gallagher and Wayne Rooney among stars at Ricky Hatton funeral
Thomas Tuchel criticises England fans after Wales win

According to its website, Accurate Energetic Systems manufactures products for the defence, aerospace, demolition, and oil and gas industries

It adds that the company makes and tests explosives at an eight-building facility that sprawls across wooded hills near Bucksnort, a town about 60 miles southwest of Nashville.

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