Connect with us

Published

on

The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?

Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?

From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?

The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.

Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.

Next, Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.

Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.

More on Russia

Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.

But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.

Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
Image:
Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war

Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.

As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.

So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia

Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.

The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.

Read more:
‘They didn’t even let me say goodbye – it’s been almost a year since I last saw my mum’

How 15 Ukrainian orphans escaped Russia, and the thousands left behind
NATO allies ‘agree Ukraine will become member’

Click to subscribe to Ukraine War Diaries wherever you get your podcasts

Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.

Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.

Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.

The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.

Continue Reading

World

Israeli air strike hits Gaza hospital

Published

on

By

Israeli air strike hits Gaza hospital

An Israeli air strike has hit a hospital in Gaza City, with pictures showing the devastating aftermath at some of its wards.

The al-Ahli Arab Baptist Hospital was hit by multiple missiles, the Hamas-run health ministry said, adding hundreds of patients, medical personnel, and their companions were on site at the time of the attack.

It said the Israeli army had targeted what it described as “one of the oldest and most vital healthcare institutions operating in the Gaza Strip”.

One patient died during the evacuation as medical staff were unable to provide urgent care, it said.

No other casualties have been reported.

Staff inspecting the damaged hospital. Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said they “struck a command and control centre used by Hamas” in the hospital.

“The compound was used by Hamas terrorists to plan and execute terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops,” they said in a statemement.

“Prior to the strike, steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians or to the hospital compound, including issuing advanced warnings in the area of the terror infrastructure, the use of precise munitions, and aerial surveillance.

“The Hamas terrorist organisation systematically violates international law while using civilian infrastructure, brutally exploiting the civilian population as a human shield for its terrorist activities.”

The health facility’s director, Dr Fadel Naim, said they were warned of the attack beforehand.

A closer look at what was the hospital's outpatient and laboratory wards. Pic: AP
Image:
A closer look at what was the hospital’s outpatient and laboratory wards. Pic: AP

The outpatient and laboratory wards of the Al-Ahli Arab Baptist hospital. Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Hamas has denied using hospitals for military purposes throughout the war and has accused Israel of intentionally targeting its medical infrastructure in its ongoing offensive.

The latest strikes come after Israel ended its ceasefire with Hamas and restarted its air and ground offensive.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has also imposed a month-long blockade on food, fuel and humanitarian aid – a tactic that rights groups say is a war crime.

Israel reconstructs Morag corridor

The Morag Corridor under construction. Pic: IDF
Image:
The Morag Corridor under construction. Pic: IDF

On Saturday, Israel said it had completed the construction of a new security corridor that cuts off the southern city of Rafah from the rest of Gaza.

The security corridor was referred to by Israeli officials as the Morag Axis, a reference to a former Israeli settlement previously located in an area between the two southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis.

The prime minister said the move gives Israel control of a second axis in southern Gaza in addition to the Philadelphi Corridor, running along the border with Egypt, which Israel sees as a key line stopping weapons being smuggled into Gaza.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Israeli forces encircle Rafah

Israel has also gained control of the Netzarim Corridor, which cuts off the northern third of Gaza from the rest of the territory.

Morag’s construction is part of Israel’s pledge to seize large parts of Gaza to pressure Hamas to release remaining hostages and accept proposed ceasefire terms, and it further squeezes Palestinians into shrinking areas of land.

In a statement on Saturday, Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said his country’s military would soon expand “rapidly” throughout most of Gaza and that Palestinians would “have to evacuate the fighting zones”.

He did not say where Palestinians were supposed to go.

The war between Israel and Hamas began when Hamas-led militants invaded Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.

Some 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza, with 24 still believed to be alive.

The ensuing Israeli offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but has previously said more than half of those killed in the conflict are women and children.

Continue Reading

World

Iran says ‘indirect talks’ have taken place with US over nuclear programme – with more to follow

Published

on

By

Iran says 'indirect talks' have taken place with US over nuclear programme - with more to follow

Iran says “indirect talks” over the country’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme have taken place with US officials, with more to come next week.

The discussions on Saturday took place in Muscat, Oman, with the host nation’s officials mediating between representatives of Iran and the US, who were seated in separate rooms, according to Esmail Baghaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry.

After the talks concluded, Oman and Iranian officials reported that Iran and the US had had agreed to hold more negotiations next week.

Oman’s foreign minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi tweeted after the meeting, thanking Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for joining the negotiations aimed at “global peace, security and stability”.

“We will continue to work together and put further efforts to assist in arriving at this goal,” he added.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi (left) meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. Pic: Iranian Foreign Ministry/AP
Image:
(L-R) Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. Pic: Iranian foreign ministry/AP

Iranian state media claimed the US and Iranian officials “briefly spoke in the presence of the Omani foreign minister” at the end of the talks – a claim Mr Araghchi echoed in a statement on Telegram.

He added the talks took place in a “constructive atmosphere based on mutual respect” and that they would continue next week.

More on Iran

American officials did not immediately acknowledge the reports from Iran.

Mr Araghchi said before the meeting on Saturday there was a “chance for initial understanding on further negotiations if the other party [US] enters the talks with an equal stance”.

He told Iran’s state TV: “Our intention is to reach a fair and honourable agreement – from an equal footing.

“And if the other side has also entered from the same position, God willing, there will be a chance for an initial agreement that can lead to a path of negotiations.”

Reuters news agency said an Omani source told it the talks were focused on de-escalating regional tensions, prisoner exchanges and limited agreements to ease sanctions in exchange for controlling Iran’s nuclear programme.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Trump on Monday: ‘We’re in direct talks with Iran’

President Donald Trump has insisted Tehran cannot get nuclear weapons.

He said on Monday that the talks would be direct, but Tehran officials insisted it would be conducted through an intermediary.

Mr Trump also warned Iran would be in “great danger” if negotiations fail.

“Hopefully those talks will be successful, it would be in Iran’s best interests if they are successful,” he said. “We hope that’s going to happen.”

He added Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon, and if the talks aren’t successful, I actually think it will be a very bad day for Iran”.

The comments came after Mr Trump’s previous warnings of possible military action against Iran if there is no deal over its nuclear programme.

Read more:
Trump undergoes annual medical check-up
Polish president backs Trump over Ukraine

Saturday’s meeting marked the first between the countries since Mr Trump’s second term in the White House began.

During his first term, he withdrew the US from a deal between Iran and world powers designed to curb Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for sanctions relief.

He also reimposed US sanctions.

Iran has since far surpassed that deal’s limits on uranium enrichment.

Tehran insists its nuclear programme is wholly for civilian energy purposes but Western powers accuse it of having a clandestine agenda.

Mr Witkoff came from talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin on Friday, as the US tries to broker an end to the war in Ukraine.

Continue Reading

World

President Duda says Trump best chance for Ukraine peace – and urges allies to stay calm over tariffs ‘shock therapy’

Published

on

By

President Duda says Trump best chance for Ukraine peace - and urges allies to stay calm over tariffs 'shock therapy'

Poland’s outgoing President Andrzej Duda has kept few revelations for the final weeks of his presidency.

Ten years in office – a tenure spanning Donald Trump’s first and current term – his admiration for the incumbent leader of the free world remains undimmed. As is his conviction that Ukraine’s only chance of peace lies with the US leader.

In an interview with Sky News in the presidential palace in Warsaw, President Duda described Mr Trump‘s tariff policy as “shock therapy”, a negotiating tactic from a man “of huge business and commercial success” that he now brings to the arena of politics.

That may not be what European politicians are used to, Mr Duda says, but Donald Trump is answerable to the US taxpayer and not to his European counterparts, and allies must “stay calm” in the face of this new transatlantic modus operandi.

As for negotiations with Vladimir Putin, President Duda is sure that Donald Trump has the measure of the Russian leader, while refusing to be drawn on the competencies of his chief negotiator Steve Witkoff who landed on Friday in Moscow for further talks with Vladimir Putin – a man Mr Witkoff has described as “trustworthy” and “not a bad guy”.

Putting the kybosh on Nord Stream 2 in his first term and thwarting President Putin’s energy ambitions via his state-owned energy giant Gazprom are evidence enough that Mr Trump knows where to hit so it hurts, Mr Duda says.

Given the failures of Europe’s leaders to negotiate peace through the Minsk accords, he believes the onus now falls on Donald Trump.

More on Poland

“If anyone is able to force the end of Russia’s war, it is most likely only the President of the United States,” he says.

“The question is whether he will be determined enough to do that in a way – because it is also very important here in Europe being a neighbour of Russian aggression against Ukraine – that the peace is fair and lasting.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

The Polish NATO base on the frontline with Russia

President Duda has just weeks left in office before the country votes for a new president in May.

Originally from Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party, one of the few points of alignment with the liberal and euro-centric prime minister Donald Tusk is the emphasis both place on security.

Hopes for ‘Fort Trump’ base

So did the announcement this week that the US would be withdrawing from the Jasionka air base near Rzeszow, which is the key logistics hub for allied support into Ukraine, come as a shock to the president, as it did to many Poles?

Not at all, Mr Duda says.

“We were warned that the change was planned. I have not received any information from [the US] about decreasing the number of American soldiers. Quite the opposite.”

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth and President Duda met in Warsaw in February. Pic: Reuters
Image:
US defence secretary Hegseth and President Duda met in February. Pic: Reuters

He referred back to talks with US defence secretary Pete Hegseth in February, saying: “We discussed strengthening the American presence in Poland, and I mentioned the idea of creating a huge base of US troops. Then, we called it Fort Trump. I do still hope that this idea will be implemented.”

Read more:
Eyewitness: Inside Polish NATO base on frontline with Russia

Andrzej Duda has staked his legacy on close ties with Donald Trump at a time when many NATO allies are considering a form of de-Americanisation, as they consider new trading realities and build up their own defence capabilities.

Poland has proven itself a model in terms of defence spending, investing more than any other NATO member – a massive 4.7% of GDP for 2025. But as the case of Canada shows, even the best of friendships can turn sour.

The Canadian conservative party, once dubbed a maple MAGA, was flying high in the polls before Donald Trump decided to savage links with his closest trading partner.

Now in the space of just a few months they are floundering behind the ruling liberal party. Is this a cautionary tale for Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party?

“For Canadian conservatives it is a kind of side effect of President Trump’s very tough economic policy,” Mr Duda says.

“In Poland, this does not have such an impact. The security issues are the most important. That’s the most important issue in Poland.”

Continue Reading

Trending