The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?
Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?
From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?
The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.
Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.
Next, although Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.
Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.
More on Russia
Related Topics:
Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.
But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.
Advertisement
Image: Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.
As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.
So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
4:04
Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia
Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.
The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.
Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.
Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.
Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.
The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.
A woman has been jailed for life in New Zealand for murdering her two children, whose bodies were found in suitcases in an abandoned storage unit more than three years ago.
Hakyung Lee, born in South Korea, was convicted in September after admitting using anti-depressant medication to kill her children, aged six and eight, in 2018.
Their bodies were discovered in the storage unit when its new owners were sorting through its contents after buying it in an online auction in August 2022.
Lee – a New Zealand citizen – had money troubles and stopped paying rent on the Auckland storage unit.
The 45-year-old was extradited to New Zealand in late 2022, after fleeing to South Korea shortly after the murders and changing her name.
Her lawyers claimed the killings happened after she “descended into madness” following the death of her husband in 2017, and on Wednesday, argued that a life sentence would be unjust given her mental health issues.
But prosecutors said there was no evidence Lee was suicidal at the time of the killings, according to the New Zealand Herald.
Judge Geoffrey Venning rejected calls for a lesser penalty, but he did approve compulsory treatment at a secure psychiatric facility on the condition that Lee would return to prison once deemed mentally fit, the newspaper reported.
The judge told Lee: “You knew your actions were morally wrong… perhaps you could not bear to have your children around you as a constant reminder of your previous happy life.”
Lee was sentenced to life imprisonment and must serve a minimum non-parole period of 17 years.
Donald Trump has claimed Russia is “making concessions” in talks to end the Ukraine war – and that Kyiv is “happy” with how talks are progressing.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One as he flew out to his Florida estate for Thanksgiving, Mr Trump said “we’re making progress” on a deal and said he would be willing to meet with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy once they are close to an agreement.
He also said his previously announced deadline of Thursday, which is Thanksgiving, was no longer in place – and that the White House’s initial 28-point peace plan, which sparked such concern in Kyiv, “was just a map”.
Image: U.S. President Donald Trump looks on aboard Air Force One during travel to Palm Beach, Florida, from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., Nov
Asked if Ukraine had been asked to hand over too much territory, Mr Trump suggested that “over the next couple of months [that] might be gotten by Russia anyway”.
Moscow’s concessions are a promise to stop fighting, “and they don’t take any more land”, he said.
“The deadline for me is when it’s over,” he added. “And I think everybody’s tired of fighting at this moment.”
Before boarding the plane, Mr Trump claimed only a few “points of disagreement” remain between the two sides.
Mr Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff will be meeting with Mr Putin in Moscow next week, the president said, while American army secretary Daniel Driscoll is due to travel to Kyiv for talks this week.
The chief of Ukraine’s presidential staff, Andriy Yermak, wrote: “Ukraine has never been and will never be an obstacle to peace. We are grateful to the US for all its support.
“The meeting between the presidents will be thoroughly and promptly prepared on our part.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:29
‘Ukraine still needs defence support,’ says Zelenskyy
Zelenskyy warns against ‘behind our back’ deal
Yesterday, a virtual “coalition of the willing” meeting that featured Ukraine’s allies took place, which was attended by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
In a speech, Mr Zelenskyy told attendees: “We firmly believe security decisions about Ukraine must include Ukraine, security decisions about Europe must include Europe.
“Because when something is decided behind the back of a country or its people, there is always a high risk it simply won’t work.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:36
What is Russia saying about the latest peace talks?
A joint statement from coalition leaders Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz said they had agreed with Mr Rubio “to accelerate joint work” with the US on the planning of security guarantees for Ukraine.
But a Ukrainian diplomat has warned major sticking points remain in the peace deal being thrashed out – primarily the prospect of territorial concessions.
A warning from the Kremlin
Meanwhile, Moscow has stressed that it will not allow any agreement to stray too far from its own objectives.
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warned any amended peace plan must reflect the understanding reached between Mr Trump and Mr Putin over the summer.
“If the spirit and letter of Anchorage is erased in terms of the key understandings we have established then, of course, it will be a fundamentally different situation,” he said, referring to the two leaders’ meeting in Alaska.
Seven people were killed with power and heating systems disrupted, as residents sheltered underground.
Meanwhile, three people died and homes were damaged after Ukraine launched an attack on southern Russia.
‘A critical juncture’
French President Emmanuel Macron has said peace efforts are gathering momentum, but “are clearly at a critical juncture”.
And during the annual White House turkey pardon ahead of Thanksgiving, Mr Trump told reporters: “I think we’re getting close to a deal. We’ll find out.
“I thought that would have been an easier one, but I think we’re making progress.”
In this story, there’s no substitute for hard news.
To learn of US envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian interactions is to understand the handbrake turn towards Moscow.
If there was much surprise and confusion about the origins of a peace proposal that had Russian fingerprints all over it, there is less now.
Captivate
This content is provided by Captivate, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Captivate cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Captivate cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Captivate cookies for this session only.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:36
What is Russia saying about the latest peace talks?
A good impression of a useful idiot
Subsequently, Witkoff drafted the controversial peace proposal with his Russian counterparts, and the US pressured Ukraine to accept it.
The report paints an unflattering picture of Trump’s envoy doing a good impression of a useful idiot.
There must be serious questions surrounding his engagement with the Russians and serious concerns around consequences that are potentially catastrophic.
Moscow’s threat to Ukraine and to the security infrastructure of Western Europe is strengthened on his handshake.