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The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?

Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?

From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?

The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.

Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.

Next, although Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.

Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.

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Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.

But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.

Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
Image:
Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war

Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.

As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.

So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.

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Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia

Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.

The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.

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Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.

Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.

Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.

The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.

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Trump’s pride vs Putin’s legacy: What to expect from pivotal Ukraine summit

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Trump's pride vs Putin's legacy: What to expect from pivotal Ukraine summit

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet for the first time in six years on Friday, with a possible deal to end the Ukraine war on the agenda.

Mr Trump has threatened “very severe consequences” if his Russian counterpart doesn’t agree to a ceasefire at the summit, being hosted at a remote US army base in snowy Anchorage, Alaska.

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But there are fears they will discuss a deal robbing Ukraine of the land currently occupied by Russia – something Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he won’t accept.

Here’s what three of our correspondents think ahead of the much-anticipated face-to-face.

Putin’s legacy is at stake – he’ll want territory and more
By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent

Putin doesn’t just want victory. He needs it.

Three and a half years after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, this war has to end in a visible win for the Russian president. It can’t have been for nothing. His legacy is at stake.

So the only deal I think he’ll be willing to accept at Friday’s summit is one that secures Moscow’s goals.

These include territory (full control of the four Ukrainian regions which Russia has already claimed), permanent neutrality for Kyiv and limits on its armed forces.

I expect he’ll be trying to convince Trump that such a deal is the quickest path to peace. The only alternative, in Russia’s eyes, is an outright triumph on the battlefield.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Osaka in 2019
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Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Osaka in 2019

I think Putin‘s hope is that the American president agrees with this view and then gives Ukraine a choice: accept our terms or go it alone without US support.

A deal like that might not be possible this week, but it may be in the future if Putin can give Trump something in return.

That’s why there’s been lots of talk from Moscow this week about all the lucrative business deals that can come from better US-Russia relations.

The Kremlin will want to use this opportunity to remind the White House of what else it can offer, apart from an end to the fighting.

Read more:
What could Ukraine be asked to give up?
Trump-Putin summit starting to feel quite ‘Midnight Sun’

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What will Kyiv be asked to give up?

Ukraine would rather this summit not be happening
By Dominic Waghorn
, international affairs editor

Ukraine would far rather this meeting wasn’t happening.

Trump seemed to have lost patience with Putin and was about to hit Russia with more severe sanctions until he was distracted by the Russian leader’s suggestion that they meet.

Ukrainians say the Alaska summit rewards Putin by putting him back on the world stage.

But the meeting is happening, and they have to be realistic.

Most of all, they want a ceasefire before any negotiations can happen. Then they want the promise of security guarantees.

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Does Europe have any power over Ukraine’s future?

That is because they know that Putin may well come back for more even if peace does break out. They need to be able to defend themselves should that happen.

And they want the promise of reparations to rebuild their country, devastated by Putin’s wanton, unprovoked act of aggression.

There are billions of Russian roubles and assets frozen across the West. They want them released and sent their way.

What they fear is Trump being hoodwinked by Putin with the lure of profit from US-Russian relations being restored, regardless of Ukraine’s fate.

US Army paratroopers train at the military base where discussions will take place. File pic: Reuters
Image:
US Army paratroopers train at the military base where discussions will take place. File pic: Reuters

That would allow Russia to regain its strength, rearm and prepare for another round of fighting in a few years’ time.

Trump and his golf buddy-turned-negotiator Steve Witkoff appear to believe Putin might be satisfied with keeping some of the land he has taken by force.

Putin says he wants much more than that. He wants Ukraine to cease to exist as a country separate from Russia.

Any agreement short of that is only likely to be temporary.

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Zelenskyy: I told Trump ‘Putin is bluffing’

Trump’s pride on the line – he has a reputation to restore
By
Martha Kelner, US correspondent

As with anything Donald Trump does, he already has a picture in his mind.

The image of Trump shaking hands with the ultimate strongman leader, Vladimir Putin, on US soil calls to his vanity and love of an attention-grabbing moment.

There is also pride at stake.

Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, where Trump will meet his Russian counterpart. File pic: Reuters
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Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, where Trump will meet his Russian counterpart. File pic: Reuters

Trump campaigned saying he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on his first day in office, so there is an element of him wanting to follow through on that promise to voters, even though it’s taken him 200-plus days in office and all he’s got so far is this meeting, without apparently any concessions on Putin’s end.

In Trump’s mind – and in the minds of many of his supporters – he is the master negotiator, the chief dealmaker, and he wants to bolster that reputation.

He is keen to further the notion that he negotiates in a different, more straightforward way than his predecessors and that it is paying dividends.

So far, despite sanctions on Russia, despite warnings and deadlines, the situation in Ukraine is only getting worse.

He’s hoping that this meeting, simply the act of sitting down with Putin, can change the tide.

The Russian president may have different ideas.

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Trump’s targets for Putin summit appear fluid – can he even get a ceasefire?

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Trump's targets for Putin summit appear fluid - can he even get a ceasefire?

The “if” was doing some heavy lifting.

Mr Trump floated the idea of a second meeting, this one between Putin, Zelenskyy and possibly himself, “if” the Alaska summit goes well.

Speaking to European leaders earlier, in a virtual call he rated at “10” and “very friendly”, he’d shared his intention to try to broker a ceasefire on Friday.

So, the strategy is crystallising – he will press for a trilateral meeting to discuss territory “if” he manages to secure a truce during the bilateral meeting.

But that begs the obvious question: what if he can’t?

The US president is keeping his options open – rating the chance of a second meeting as “very good” but preparing the ground for failure too.

“There may be no second meeting because if I feel that it is not appropriate to have it because I didn’t get the answers that we have to have, then we’re not going to have a second meeting,” he said.

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Unusually, given how often he talks about his abilities, he conceded that he may not persuade Vladimir Putin to stop targeting civilians.

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Sky’s defence analyst, Prof Michael Clarke, looks at what land Ukraine might be asked to give up when Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska.

Read More
Trump’s threat to Putin – Ukraine latest
What could Ukraine be asked to give up?
Sky News’ Ukraine Q&A

But without elaborating on what any sanctions might be, he warned that Russia would face “very severe consequences” if it doesn’t end the war.

Even if he achieves the seemingly impossible – a halt to the fighting – there seems little chance of agreement on any swapping of territory.

A BTR-4 armoured personnel carrier during military exercises in Kharkiv region.
Image:
A BTR-4 armoured personnel carrier during military exercises in Kharkiv region.

Mr Zelenskyy has told Mr Trump that Putin “is bluffing” and wants to “push forward along the whole front” not return land.

In the space of a week, Donald Trump has gone from talking about a land-swapping deal, to a “listening exercise”, to the potential for a ceasefire.

His expectations appear changeable, an indication of how fluid back-room negotiations are in the run-up to his first face-to-face with Vladimir Putin in six years.

He described Friday’s summit as “setting the table for a second meeting”, but that’s presumptuous when the meal – or deal – isn’t cooked yet.

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Over 100 people killed in Gaza in 24 hours, officials say, marking deadliest day in a week

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Over 100 people killed in Gaza in 24 hours, officials say, marking deadliest day in a week

More than 100 people have been killed in Gaza within 24 hours, officials there have said – the deadliest day recorded in a week.

The Gaza health ministry said 123 people were killed, adding to the tens of thousands of fatalities during the near two-year war raging in the Strip.

It comes as officials said Israel’s planned re-seizure of Gaza City, which it took in the early days of the war before withdrawing, is likely weeks away.

Follow the latest: Netanyahu accused of having ‘lost the plot’

Palestinians shelter at a tent camp on a beach amid summer heat in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa
Image:
Palestinians shelter at a tent camp on a beach amid summer heat in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa

Eastern areas of Gaza City were bombed heavily by Israeli planes and tanks, according to residents, who said that many homes were destroyed in the Zeitoun and Shejaia neighbourhoods overnight.

Al-Ahli hospital said 12 people were killed in an airstrike on a house in Zeitoun.

Israeli tanks also destroyed several homes in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, Palestinian medics said.

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Netanyahu vows to ‘finish the job’ in Gaza

They added that in central Gaza, Israeli gunfire killed nine people seeking aid in two separate incidents. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) did not comment on this.

The number of Palestinians who died of starvation and malnutrition in Gaza has risen to 235, including 106 children, since the war began, following the death of eight more people, including three children, in the past 24 hours, the Gaza health ministry said.

Palestinians scramble to collect aid from trucks that entered through Israel, in Khan Younis. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Palestinians scramble to collect aid from trucks that entered through Israel, in Khan Younis. Pic: Reuters

The malnutrition and hunger death figures have been reported by the Hamas-run ministry and have been disputed by Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday: “If we had a starvation policy, no one in Gaza would have survived after two years of war.”

He also repeated the allegation that Hamas has been looting aid trucks and claimed uncollected food has been “rotting” at the border, blaming the UN for not distributing it.

Aid packages being dropped from a plane in Deir Al-Balah. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Aid packages being dropped from a plane in Deir Al-Balah. Pic: Reuters

A Palestinian boy jumps over wastewater in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A Palestinian boy jumps over wastewater in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters

The latest death figures come as Hamas held further talks with Egyptian mediators in Cairo with a focus on stopping the war, delivering aid and “enduring the suffering of our people in Gaza”, an official for the group said in a statement.

Egyptian security sources said the possibility of a comprehensive ceasefire would also be discussed.

This would see Hamas relinquish governance in Gaza and concede its weapons, with a Hamas official saying the group was open to all ideas as long as Israel would end the war and pull out of Gaza.

But the official added that “laying down arms before the occupation is dismissed as impossible”.

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Meanwhile, Mr Netanyahu reiterated that Palestinians should simply leave Gaza, an idea which has also been enthusiastically floated by US President Donald Trump.

“They’re not being pushed out, they’ll be allowed to exit,” Mr Netanyahu told Israeli television channel i24NEWS. “All those who are concerned for the Palestinians and say they want to help the Palestinians should open their gates and stop lecturing us.”

World leaders have rejected the idea of displacing the Gaza population, and Mr Netanyahu’s plan to expand military control over Gaza, which Israeli sources said could be launched in October, has increased global outcry over the widespread devastation, displacement and hunger in the enclave.

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‘See with your eyes the reality’

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is at “unimaginable levels”, Britain and 26 partners said in a statement on Tuesday, warning: “Famine is unfolding before our eyes.”

The statement added: “Urgent action is needed now to halt and reverse starvation. Humanitarian space must be protected, and aid should never be politicised.”

It was signed by the foreign ministers of Australia, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

Read more from Sky News:
West Bank: The city locked down by armed troops
Who were the journalists killed by Israel in Gaza?

The war in Gaza began on 7 October 2023 when Hamas killed about 1,200 people – mostly civilians – and abducted 251 others in its attack.

Most of the hostages have been released in ceasefires or other deals. It is believed Hamas is still holding 50 captives, with 20 believed to be alive.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 61,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between militants and civilians in its count.

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