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It seems I have lost a bet.

In the Rose Garden yesterday afternoon President Joe Biden replied with just one word – “yes” – when I asked him if he would run again.

Many months ago my colleague and I bet on whether or not he’d go for a second term.

My (flawed) logic – that he would not – was based simply on his age.

My assumption was that his wife, First Lady Jill Biden, would counsel him that he’d achieved enough in his first term and that it was time to take a back seat; let someone else complete his work.

After all, he would be 82 at the time of re-election and nearer 90 at the end of the second term.

I have already been accused of ageism for raising this point, but it’s legitimate to discuss the issue, surely?

The American people have already spoken. The latest polling, from our US partner network NBC this past weekend, suggests only one in four Americans believe Biden should run again.

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‘I believe Biden will be re-elected’

Biden has aged and he’s less fluent

I’ve compared speeches he gave just a couple of years ago with those he’s given more recently.

He has aged. He is less fluent. This isn’t a jibe. It’s an observation and there is no suggestion of health issues. He passes the regular White House medicals.

But what about the unmatched intensity of the American election cycle? It’s tested candidates half his age. Is he really ready to do that all over again?

The President said before Christmas that he would consult with family before deciding if he would run again.

So my naive instinct was based on human nature: that his family would tell him: ‘Pop, dad, Joe, you’ve had a good run… support a good successor and stand aside’.

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My colleague’s judgement – that he would run – was, of course, based much more on the cold logic of politics.

This is a man who has lived and breathed politics all his life – he has always wanted to be president.

In his mid-seventies he managed that top office. He’s done one term. He’s hardly likely to want to throw the towel in now.

Who wants to be a one-term president?

His age gives him unmatched political experience. His supporters argue that he has achieved a lot in one term. He’s secured impressive domestic legislative achievements. He’s led the free world against Russian aggression. There’s much more yet to do; there are policy pledges to fulfil.

He has been eyeing competition

“Finish the job…” will be the campaign slogan.

He’s obviously been eyeing the competition too. While it’s true that American politics is hard to predict, it looks likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate.

Biden beat Trump last time around. So, he and the Democrats naturally assume he can do it again.

Remember too that so much has emerged about (the now indicted) Donald Trump since the last election. Could Trump’s support base really have increased since 2020? Surely not, Team Biden is assuming.

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What about other Democratic Party candidates? There must be some?!

Well – not really. The other two main contenders last time around – Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris – were strategically wrapped into Team Biden during this first term. Neither has shone either.

There are a few in the wings who see themselves as post-Biden candidates – like California’s Governor Gavin Newsom – but none prepared to stand in his way now – fearful maybe of being blamed for a Trump ’24 victory?

And so, Biden 2024 seems as good as certain.

The world will reflect on the fact that the best America can offer for 2024 is a likely re-run of the 2020 offering. And I’ve lost a bet.

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‘I forgive him’: Charlie Kirk’s wife delivers tearful message – and one America needs to hear most

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'I forgive him': Charlie Kirk's wife delivers tearful message - and one America needs to hear most

“I forgive him.” They were three little words, and yet, they were huge.

In a stadium packed to capacity, Erika Kirk’s address to an assassin was delivered in tears and received with silence until the crowd grew into applause.

“The answer to hate is not hate,” she added. It is, perhaps, the message America needs to hear most and the one it has heard least.

As it happened: Trump delivers speech at Charlie Kirk’s memorial

President Donald Trump embraces Erika Kirk. Pic: AP
Image:
President Donald Trump embraces Erika Kirk. Pic: AP

Erika Kirk wipes tears from her eyes during her speech. Pic: AP
Image:
Erika Kirk wipes tears from her eyes during her speech. Pic: AP

The memorial to Charlie Kirk felt like a Republican state funeral in all but name.

This was MAGA in mourning, an occasion that laid bare the influence of Charlie Kirk and his politics.

They had travelled in their tens of thousands to the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

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Charlie Kirk’s supporters pay tribute at memorial

They saluted a conservative icon and the dress code crafted a patriotic spectacle in red, white and blue.

It was an act of remembrance on a stadium scale, huge in size and sentiment. It was also big on politics.

From the president down, the Trump administration’s top tier spoke of politics after 10 September, the day Charlie Kirk was killed.

Attendees listen as President Donald Trump speaks. Pic: AP
Image:
Attendees listen as President Donald Trump speaks. Pic: AP

A woman is overcome with emotion while watching a Charlie Kirk tribute video. Pic: AP
Image:
A woman is overcome with emotion while watching a Charlie Kirk tribute video. Pic: AP

This was a Republican movement in one place, with one microphone, after an assassination that accelerated the tectonic shift in US politics.

A week and a half since the assassination, political reaction has distilled into a war over freedom of speech and that was revisited by the president, even if he reserved most of his speech to pay homage to Charlie Kirk.

The White House decanted a full team from Washington DC to Arizona.

They came for reasons of sympathy and bereavement, of course. It was also an occasion laced with politics.

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‘We speak for Charlie louder than ever’ – Vance

This was Washington’s travelling roadshow swinging by the support that Charlie built.

The same support was critical in helping Donald Trump back into power at the last election, and the challenge confronting the White House is in harnessing that vote in his absence and carrying it forward.

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Musk and Trump greet each other at Kirk memorial

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Politically, it was a full-court press to style the horses amongst the youth vote and Christian nationalists.

Charlie Kirk brought them onside, and Team Trump wants to keep them there.

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Charlie Kirk ally claims ‘miracle’ stopped bullet killing anyone else

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Charlie Kirk ally claims 'miracle' stopped bullet killing anyone else

The producer of Charlie Kirk’s podcast has claimed that a “miracle” stopped more people being killed by the bullet that hit the right-wing influencer.

Andrew Kolvet claimed to have spoken to a surgeon that tried to save Mr Kirk’s life, and posted on social media to discuss the apparent lack of an exit wound.

A prominent right-wing figure in the US, Mr Kirk was a staunch ally of President Donald Trump and was known for his conservative viewpoints on abortion, religion and LGBT issues.

The 31-year-old was shot dead while speaking at a university event in Utah last week.

Mr Trump and other public figures are expected to be in Arizona on Sunday for a memorial service for Mr Kirk which is expected to draw 100,000 people.

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Prosecutors detail case against Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer

Mr Kolvet, executive producer of the Charlie Kirk Show, apologised for the “somewhat graphic” nature of his post on X.

In it, he discussed what he said was a lack of an exit wound from the bullet, despite it being “a high powered, high velocity round”.

Mr Kolvet included what he said were quotes from a surgeon who operated on Mr Kirk.

“It was an absolute miracle that someone else didn’t get killed,” Mr Kolvet quoted the surgeon as saying.

“His bone was so healthy and the density was so so impressive that he’s like the man of steel. It should have just gone through and through. It likely would have killed those standing behind him too.”

Mr Kolvet said what happened was “remarkable” and “miraculous”.

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Crowds chant at Charlie Kirk vigil at Texas university

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Memorial to draw 100,000 people

President Trump and JD Vance are expected to be among the prominent MAGA members who will pay tribute to Mr Kirk at the memorial event.

It will take place at State Farm Stadium, the home of the Arizona Cardinals NFL team, amid a heavy law enforcement presence.

State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Pic: Reuters
Image:
State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Pic: Reuters

President Trump has blamed the “radical left” for the death of Mr Kirk, whom he credited for helping him win the 2024 presidential election.

It comes as the death of Mr Kirk has turned into a debate over the First Amendment.

While they have repeatedly criticised what they claim are assaults on free speech, members of the MAGA movement appear to be taking a different stance when the subject is one of their own, launching attacks on people they deem to be making disparaging comments about Mr Kirk.

Dozens of people, from journalists to teachers, have already lost their jobs for allegedly making offensive comments about the podcaster.

Late-night chat show host Jimmy Kimmel was pulled from the air indefinitely by ABC following a backlash from the Trump-appointed head of the Federal Communications Commission over the comedian’s remarks about Mr Kirk.

The State Department also has warned it would revoke the visas of any foreigners who celebrated his assassination.

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Luigi Mangione’s lawyers call on judge to block the death penalty

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Luigi Mangione's lawyers call on judge to block the death penalty

Lawyers for Luigi Mangione have called on a judge to block federal prosecutors from seeking the death penalty against him.

Mangione’s legal team says the 27-year-old’s case has been turned into a “Marvel movie” after a failed bid by the US Justice Department to indict him on terrorism charges over the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare chief executive Brian Thompson in New York on 4 December.

New York state judge Gregory Carro said there was no evidence that the killing, which took place as Mr Thompson walked into an investor conference at the New York Hilton Midtown hotel, amounted to a terrorist act.

But Judge Carro upheld second-degree murder charges, which suggest there was malicious intent – but not that it was premeditated.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi has called for Mangione to face capital punishment, describing the charges against him as a “premeditated cold-blooded assassination that shocked America”.

But in the new court filing, Mangione’s legal team argues federal prosecutors have “violated Mr Mangione’s constitutional and statutory rights” by “staging a dehumanizing, unconstitutional ‘perp walk’ where he was televised, videotaped, and photographed clambering out of a helicopter in shackles” on the way to his first court appearance.

The legal team, led by former Manhattan prosecutor Karen Friedman Agnifilo, also claims the death penalty case has been “fatally prejudiced” after President Donald Trump commented on it on Fox News.

Despite laws that prohibit any pre-trial commentary that could prejudice the defendant’s right to a free trial, he told the network on Thursday: “Think about Mangione. He shot someone in the back, as clear as you’re looking at me or I’m looking at you.”

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UnitedHealthcare chief executive Brian Thompson.
Pic: UnitedHealth Group/AP
Image:
UnitedHealthcare chief executive Brian Thompson.
Pic: UnitedHealth Group/AP

The defence team’s 114-page court filing reads: “There is a high bar to dismissing an indictment due to pretrial publicity.

“However, there has never been a situation remotely like this one where prejudice has been so great against a death-eligible defendant.”

Federal prosecutors have until 31 October to respond to the documents.

Mangione has pleaded not guilty to all the state charges against him, which cannot result in the death penalty and only life imprisonment, unlike federal ones. He has also pleaded not guilty to the federal charges.

He is due back in court for a pre-trial hearing in the state case on 1 December and the federal case on 5 December.

The 27-year-old was arrested five days after Mr Thompson was killed – when he was spotted at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, around 230 miles west of New York City.

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