It’s true to say the UK has become worse off. But some have felt the brunt more than others

Published

2 years ago

April 26, 2023

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When Huw Pill said, in a recent Columbia University podcast, that British people need “to accept that they’re worse off” the comments understandably hit a raw nerve.

With the country going through a once-in-a-generation cost of living crisis, it’s hardly palatable to be lectured by a very well-paid former Goldman Sachs banker that we all need to live a little less extravagantly.

But while Mr Pill’s comments were delivered with his foot firmly lodged in his mouth, there is an important truth lurking beneath them.

That truth is that the country as a whole is undoubtedly worse off as a result of the sharp increase in energy prices recently. Simply put, these days we import a lot of our energy, mostly in the form of natural gas.

And since those energy prices have risen so sharply, we are all having to pay more for our goods and services without earning more money in return. We – by which I mean the country as a whole – are all poorer.

You get a sense of this when you look at Britain’s national income – the amount of cash we’re generating here in the country – and subtract the amount of cash we consumers tend to spend each year.

The chart you end up with looks somewhat terrifying: a cliff-edge line of the likes we’ve never seen before. This is a pretty good illustration of how dramatically our collective net worth has fallen in the past year or so.

Yet saying the country as a whole is poorer is not the same as saying everyone is feeling the squeeze in quite the same way.

Indeed, look at the impact of this loss of collective worth and you see big differences. A few companies (and their employees and shareholders), notably energy producers, have done very well out of the price spike. Most have not.

In much the same way, the pain of higher prices is felt differently at different income levels. Inflation, remember, is the rate at which prices are going up each year.

But the extent to which different income groups have leeway, either through their earnings or their savings, to shoulder that increase, differs greatly.

Study after study has shown that lower income groups are feeling the impact of higher energy and food prices considerably more than higher income groups.

Broadly speaking, those in the upper end of the income distribution (which, for what it’s worth, includes pretty much all Bank of England economists) have seen significantly smaller falls in their spending potential than those at the lower end. The country has become worse off, but some have felt the brunt of it more than others.

These are what economists would tend to call “distributional” issues: how the benefits (or in this case pain) of an economic phenomenon are distributed out among the population.

Typically, the Bank of England tends to focus less on such issues than the big picture – that nationwide story about how we are, in aggregate, all worse off.

Not, it’s worth saying, because they’re heartless and don’t care, but because they view such challenges as something democratically elected politicians should be addressing rather than ivory tower academics in Threadneedle Street. Which is fair enough.

However, the cost of living crisis is two things at once: a big, macroeconomic phenomenon (the country has become poorer) and a distributional phenomenon (some people are feeling the pain more than others).

Mr Pill’s main mistake was not to be clearer that he was talking about the former issue, without being clearer that he wasn’t trying to pass judgement on the latter.

Still, it’s not the first time someone from the Bank of England has said something indelicate and insensitive at a time of nationwide economic insecurity – and it’s unlikely to be the last.

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Bank of England warns of ‘sharp correction’ for markets if AI bubble bursts

Published

9 hours ago

October 8, 2025

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Bank of England warns of 'sharp correction' for markets if AI bubble bursts

The Bank of England sees trouble ahead for global financial markets if investors U-turn on the prospects for artificial intelligence (AI) ahead.

The Bank‘s Financial Policy Committee said in its latest update on the state of the financial system that there was also a risk of a market correction through intensifying worries about US central bank independence.

“The risk of a sharp market correction has increased,” it warned, while adding that the risk of “spillovers” to these shores from such a shock was “material”.

Money latest: ‘I want to create the Nike of lingerie’

Fears have been growing that the AI-driven stock market rally in the United States is unsustainable, and there are signs that a growing number of investors are rushing to hedge against any correction.

This was seen early on Wednesday when the spot gold price surpassed the $4,000 per ounce level for the first time.

Analysts point to upward pressure from a global economic slowdown driven by the US trade war, the continuing US government shutdown and worries about the sustainability of US government debt.

The political crisis in France has also been cited as a reason for recent gold shifts.

Money has also left the US dollar since Donald Trump moved to place his supporters at the heart of the US central bank, repeatedly threatening to fire its chair for failing to cut interest rates to support the economy.

Jay Powell’s term at the Federal Reserve ends next spring but the White House, while moving to nominate his replacement, has already shifted the voting power and is looking to fire one rate-setter, Lisa Cook, for alleged mortgage fraud.

She is fighting that move in the courts.

Financial markets fear that monetary policy will no longer be independent of the federal government.

“A sudden or significant change in perceptions of Federal Reserve credibility could result in a sharp repricing of US dollar assets, including in US sovereign debt markets, with the potential for increased volatility, risk premia and global spillovers,” the Bank of England said.

British government borrowing costs are closely correlated with US Treasury yields and both are currently elevated, near multi-year highs in some cases.

It’s presenting Chancellor Rachel Reeves with a headache as she prepares the ground for November’s budget, with the higher yields reflecting investor concerns over high borrowing and debt levels.

On AI, the Bank said that 30% of the US S&P 500’s valuation was made up by the five largest companies, the greatest concentration in 50 years.

Share valuations based on past earnings were the most stretched since the dotcom bubble 25 years ago, though looked less so based on investors’ expectations for future profits.

A recent report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 95% of businesses that had integrated AI into their operations had yet to see any return on their investment.

“This, when combined with increasing concentration within market indices, leaves markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic,” the statement said.

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Gold smashes past $4,000 per ounce but there is good reason to be worried

Published

14 hours ago

October 8, 2025

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Gold smashes past ,000 per ounce but there is good reason to be worried

An extraordinary milestone was achieved overnight for the price of gold.

The spot gold price topped $4,000 an ounce for the first time on record – and futures data suggests no let up in its upwards momentum for the rest of 2025.

It was trading at $4,035 early on Wednesday morning.

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It has risen steadily since Trump 2.0 began in January, when it stood at a level around $2,600.

Sky News was quick to report on the early reasons for a spike in the price when heavy outflows were witnessed at the Bank of England.

Gold has traditionally been seen as a safe haven for investors’ money in tough times.

There has been plenty to worry about this year – not all of it down to Donald Trump.

Analysts say the surge during 2025 can be partly explained as a hedge against the US trade war and the resulting slowdown in the global economy, which has hit demand for many traditional growth-linked stocks and the dollar.

Wider economic and geopolitical uncertainty, such as the tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the sustainability of US government debt levels, have also been at play.

Over this week, the political crisis in France and the implications of the continuing US government shutdown have been driving forces.

But there is one other, crucial, factor that has entered the equation, particularly since the end of the summer.

Many analysts say that gold has become a collective hedge against the possible implosion of the AI-driven boom for technology stocks in the US.

Despite a few wobbles, there have been almost endless headlines around record values for such shares, with most investment seen as a big bet on the future rather than current earnings.

Around 35% of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 Index trades at more than 10 times sales, according to investment firm GQG.

AI leaders such as Nvidia and companies investing big in their capabilities see huge rewards ahead in terms of both productivity and profits.

But a recent report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 95% of businesses that had integrated AI into their operations had yet to see any return on their investment.

Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at the spread betting provider Pepperstone, said gold’s $4,000 level would test appetite but the outlook remained positive for now, given all the global risks still at play.

“Selling gold at this stage has become a high-risk endeavour for one simple reason, conviction.

“Institutions, central banks and retail investors alike now treat dips as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of exhaustion. One only needs to recall the $3,000 level just six months ago, reached amid the tariff headlines, to understand how sentiment has shifted.

“This collective behaviour has created a self-reinforcing cycle where every pause in momentum is met with renewed buying.

“Gold has evolved from a traditional hedge during uncertainty into what could be described as a conviction trade, an asset whose value transcends price, reflecting deeper doubts about policy credibility and the erratic course of fiscal decision-making.”

It all suggests there is good reason for momentum behind this gold rush and that more stock market investors could soon be running for them there hills.

Business

It’s now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

Published

19 hours ago

October 8, 2025

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It's now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

Britain’s wealth gap is growing and it’s now practically impossible for a typical worker to save enough to become rich, according to a report.

Analysis by The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, found it would take average earners 52 years to accrue savings that would take them from the middle to the top of wealth distribution.

The total needed would be around £1.3m, and assumes they save almost all of their income.

Wealth gaps are “entrenched”, it said, meaning who your parents are – and what assets they may have – is becoming more important to your living standards than how hard you work.

While the UK’s wealth has “expanded dramatically over recent decades”, it’s been mainly fuelled by periods of low interest rates and increases in asset worth – not wage growth or buying new property.

Citing figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Wealth And Assets Survey, the think tank found household wealth reached £17trn in 2020-22, with £5.5trn (32%) held in property and £8.2trn (48%) in pensions.

The report said: “As a result, Britain’s wealth reached a new peak of nearly 7.5 times GDP by 2020-22, up from around three times GDP in the mid-1980s.

“Yet, despite this remarkable increase in the overall stock of wealth, relative wealth inequality – measured by the share of wealth held by the richest households – has remained broadly stable since the 1980s, with the richest tenth of households consistently owning around half of all wealth.”

According to the think tank, this trend has worsened intergenerational inequality.

It said the wealth gap between people in their early 30s and people in their early 60s has more than doubled between 2006-08 and 2020-22 – from £135,000 to £310,000, in real cash terms.

Regional inequality remains an issue, with median average wealth per adult higher in London and the South East.

Could wealth tax be the answer?

The report comes seven weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, having batted away calls earlier this year for a wealth tax.

Former Labour leader Lord Kinnock is among those to have called for one, in an interview with Sky News.

But speaking to Bloomberg last month, Ms Reeves said: “We already have taxes on wealthy people – I don’t think we need a standalone wealth tax.”

Previous government policies targeting Britain’s richest, notably a move to grab billions from non-doms, has led to concerns about an exodus of wealth. The prime minister has denied too many are leaving the capital.

Molly Broome, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said any wealth taxes would not just be paid by the country’s richest citizens.

She said: “With property and pensions now representing 80% of the growing bulk of household wealth, we need to be honest that higher wealth taxes are likely to fall on pensioners, southern homeowners or their families, rather than just being paid by the super-rich.”