How Game 5 of Leafs-Lightning will be won: Pathways to victory for each team
It started as a series of blowouts. It became a matchup defined by comebacks.
What’s remained the same throughout is that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t lacked for drama in their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series.
And the Leafs have got their foes on the ropes.
Let’s recap: The Atlantic Division rivals traded multigoal victories in Toronto to tie the series at 1-1 before it shifted down to Tampa. There, the Lightning blew late leads in regulation of Games 3 and 4, lost both tilts in overtime and are on the brink of elimination in a 3-1 series hole.
Tampa Bay heads back to Toronto for Game 5 on Thursday night, with nothing left to do but win its next three hockey games. Meanwhile, the Leafs have three cracks at closing out the recent back-to-back Stanley Cup champions and finally, for the first time in nearly 20 years, advance past the opening round of a playoff series.
Can the Lightning rally — and rattle — Toronto enough to still come out on top? Or will the Leafs quiet their critics — and quit being a punchline — by actually finishing off an opponent?
“It feels different,” Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe said of his team after Game 4. “But we’ve got a tough task ahead.”
Here are five keys to victory for the Leafs and Lightning before Thursday’s battle of the blue-and-whites in Game 5:
Engage with urgency from the opening draw
Toronto overcame a one-goal deficit in Game 3 to win 4-3. It roared back from a three-goal disadvantage to take Game 4. That’s all well and good. But waiting until the last minute to come alive is unsustainable for the Leafs, especially with the Lightning playing with more desperation.
Urgency — or a lack thereof — has been Toronto’s downfall before. And the Leafs know full well Tampa Bay is capable of clawing back into a series. In last season’s first-round meeting, the Lightning were down 2-1 and 3-2 before closing the Leafs out in Game 7.
It’s no wonder Auston Matthews noted after the Leafs’ Game 4 victory: “The fourth [win] is the hardest to get.”
That has long held true for Toronto, and not just against Tampa Bay. There’s a reason the Leafs haven’t won a postseason series since 2004 and have been tossed from the opening round of their past six playoff (or play-in) opportunities. The Leafs don’t have to look far back to the last time they blew a 3-1 series lead; it was just two seasons ago against the Montreal Canadiens.
It’s time to finish this off.
Instead of letting Tampa Bay dictate the tone — as Toronto did for too much of Games 3 and 4 — it should be the Leafs taking it to the Lightning in Game 5. It should be Toronto playing like its season is on the line. Momentum is a powerful thing. The Leafs have it, and for once they can wield it properly — toward earning a series-deciding win — instead of handing the power back to the opposition.
Beware of vintage, Vezina-worthy Vasilevskiy
It’s been a particularly difficult playoff series for Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. He might also be the most well-suited goaltender in the league to produce a Herculean response.
So far, Vasilevskiy is 1-3-0 with a 4.33 goals-against average and .856 save percentage. He’s allowed more goals in this four-game span (19) than any other such stretch in his playoff career. That total is also tied for the second-most goals given up by a netminder through the first four games of a playoff series since 1984.
Bottom line? Like much of Tampa Bay’s lineup, its goaltender hasn’t been good enough. There’s no victory in sight for the Lightning if that doesn’t change.
“We scored enough goals to win,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said following Tampa’s 5-4 loss in Game 4. “You’ve got to keep them out of your net.”
Fortunately for the Lightning, there’s a long history of Vasilevskiy doing just that. He entered this postseason with enviable stats, a 63-38-0 playoff record, including seven shutouts — six of which have come in elimination games.
Basically, Vasilevskiy has been the Lightning’s backbone with their season(s) on the line. Cooper pointed out that several of the goals Vasilevskiy allowed late in Game 4 were tips and deflections, strikes that any goaltender — even ones who have won the Vezina Trophy, Conn Smythe Trophy and Stanley Cup — would struggle to stop.
Vasilevskiy can’t undo what’s happened. But he can still be that clutch performer Tampa Bay has relied on for the past decade. And few things would get into Toronto’s heads quite like seeing Vasilevskiy go full-on shutdown mode with so much at stake.
Don’t deviate; elevate
The Leafs’ supposedly improved depth was a constant talking point heading into this series.
Lo and behold, the rumors were true. Toronto has graduated beyond just relying on its core of star players — namely Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander — and has attacked the Lightning from all angles (and every line) throughout the past four games.
To date, the Leafs have had 10 different goal scorers, seen six players pass the six-point mark, and gotten key contributions from one rookie (Matthew Knies) and two trade-deadline acquisitions: Ryan O’Reilly, with seven points, and Noel Acciari with two goals.
The Leafs’ chemistry is palpable. The trick is not to overthink it.
Toronto already made one key decision in deciding not to insert Michael Bunting back into the lineup for Game 5. The feisty top-line forward was suspended three games for elbowing and interference against Tampa defenseman Erik Cernak in Game 1. He was eligible to return for Game 5, but Keefe said Wednesday that Bunting will remain on the bench.
Ultimately Keefe decided that, despite what Bunting brought to the team with a 49-point regular season effort, it wasn’t worth disrupting the group that has won three straight playoff games. Not that he’s afraid to move players around — at Wednesday’s practice, Knies had been elevated to the Leafs’ second line with Tavares and Marner.
That’s just a further example of how the Leafs can continue using all the players they have to keep Tampa Bay on its toes — and avoid their previous fate as a one-dimensional foe.
“[I like] the top-to-bottom six and that’s part of the decision to not insert Bunting in, [so we’re] maintaining that,” Keefe said. “We’re trying to establish something where we are comfortable playing all four lines. That was our intention going into the series. We thought we were in a good spot that way and had to adjust along the way, which is what we had to do the other night [in Game 4]. The players responded well, we can always make other adjustments if needed, but we like to group [this] way.”
Lightning need full team effort on defense
“In the end, you’ve got to defend,” Cooper noted after Game 4. “And you’ve got to keep the puck out of your net.”
That’s been easier said than done for Tampa Bay lately, but it has established the right blueprint of what not to do.
The primary problem is that Tampa Bay’s blueline isn’t the same without Cernak. He’s been absent since the Game 1 hit by Bunting, and he won’t be dressing for Game 5, either.
Victor Hedman missed time early in the series because of an injury and is likely not at 100%. Mikhail Sergachev has been banged up and briefly left Game 4 after blocking a shot from O’Reilly. The Lightning are leaning on rookies Darren Raddysh and Nick Perbix to play critical minutes, and they’ve delivered admirably. What Tampa Bay truly requires, though, is more defensive buy-in across the board.
“In the totality of things, would we like to have Cernak in our lineup, a top-four defenseman for us? Yes,” Cooper said. “[But] we’ve gotten in our own way, obviously, at some of these points.”
Toronto learned the hard way in Game 1’s disastrous 7-3 loss that if it didn’t start wrapping up the Lightning’s top-flight forwards in front of the net and stopping them from setting up a strong cycle, it was about to be a short series. Tampa Bay must make the same investment in its end.
Instead of leaving Vasilevskiy out to dry, it’s on Tampa Bay’s entire five-man units to be pressuring Leafs’ skaters to the outside and not allowing them to set up in front. Pushing shots through traffic is how Toronto worked its way back in Game 4, and a tighter effort from the Lightning — particularly through the neutral zone — won’t allow the Leafs those opportunities to get in Vasilevskiy’s line of vision.
Cooper admitted his team might have sat back in the third period of that Game 4 loss. There’s nothing like the threat of impending elimination to light a fire under any player — regardless of superstar status — to do the dirty work necessary that keeps a team’s hopes alive for a Game 6.
Wanted: Perked-up PKs
Special teams play an important role in every postseason series.
The charitable thing to say is that Tampa Bay and Toronto have been equally good in this one on the power play. Another reality is that, at times, both teams’ penalty kills have been something of an eyesore.
Going into Game 5, Toronto is at 70.6% on the PK (and 6-for-17 on the power play).
Tampa Bay is even worse at 64.7% on the PK (and 5-for-17 on the power play).
Will this all-important, potentially series-deciding Game 5 be determined by whose penalty kill is less awful?
The Lightning penalty kill gave up a game-winning power-play goal to Alexander Kerfoot in Game 4. Toronto’s kill has been discombobulated at times by Tampa Bay’s four-forward look on the man advantage (see: allowing four power-play markers in Game 1).
Staying out of the box would help, obviously. Tampa Bay has taken more penalties (27) than any team in the postseason. The Leafs aren’t far behind with 23 infractions.
There have been heroic short-handed moments from both sides, too. Key shot blocks. Dives into shooting lanes. Aggressive pressure and positive results.
It’s just takes one bad decision, though. One careless clear or sloppy turnover when you’re down a man and it won’t be even-strength play that rules the day. That can be a tough pill to swallow with results on the line.
Hockey fans are close to knowing the identities of the 16 Stanley Cup playoff teams for 2025. But the battles for seeding continue to rage — as does the jockeying for position in the draft lottery order.
Here’s what to monitor during Thursday’s 10-game slate — and we hope you can watch on multiple devices!
Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins
7 p.m. (ESPN+)
These two Original Six franchises will be back in the postseason again at some point, but not this season. Chicago begins the night second in the draft lottery order, three points back of the San Jose Sharks. The Bruins are fourth heading into Thursday night, tied in points with the Philadelphia Flyers.
Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers
7 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Red Wings begin the evening eight points behind the Canadiens for the final wild-card spot in the East (Tuesday’s loss to Montreal certainly didn’t help). A regulation loss here eliminates them. After their win Tuesday over the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Panthers are right back in the race atop the Atlantic Division. As play begins Thursday, the Leafs are No. 1 with 100 points and 39 regulation wins, the Tampa Bay Lightning are second (97, 39) and the Panthers are third (94, 36).
Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets
7 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Sabres picked a strange time to go on a heater, as they are 8-2-0 in their last 10; maybe there will be some carry-over to start 2025-26? In any event, Buffalo begins the evening eighth in the draft lotto order, three spots (and three points) ahead of Columbus. The Blue Jackets stayed in the playoff race probably longer than anyone outside their dressing room believed they would, but they’ll be officially eliminated with another loss.
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
There was some nastiness the last time these two squads played; will we see retribution — particularly against Carolina’s Jalen Chatfield — on Thursday? As for the long-term impact, Washington is locked in as the No. 1 seed in the Metro, and Carolina needs one point to clinch the No. 2 seed over the New Jersey Devils.
New York Rangers at New York Islanders
7:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
From two Metro teams that have clinched a playoff spot to two who are on the cusp of elimination (after qualifying last spring). This rivalry game has a bit less juice than usual given the reality of the mathematics. The Rangers are currently 10th in the draft lottery order, the Isles 12th.
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars
8 p.m. (ESPN+)
If the Stars have plans to overtake the Jets for the top overall seed in the West, they’ll need to win this one. Winnipeg enters the game four points (and one regulation win) ahead. So it’s not completely a must-win for the Stars’ quest for the No. 1 spot, but it’d certainly be a lot better for those chances if they won.
Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche
9 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Canucks were officially eliminated Wednesday night, and are currently 15th in the draft lottery order, a point back of the Hockey Club. As for the Avalanche, they are nearly locked into position as the Central’s No. 3 seed.
Nashville Predators at Utah Hockey Club
9 p.m. (ESPN+)
The HC has been playing inspired hockey as of late, but it was too late to get the final playoff spot, as they were eliminated Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Nashville begins play third in the draft lotto order, 10 points behind Chicago and seven ahead of the No. 4 Flyers.
Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights
10 p.m. (ESPN+)
This wasn’t the best season in Seattle Kraken history, though the club will likely get a top-10 draft pick this summer to continue the build; heading into Thursday, the Kraken are sixth in the draft lottery order, one point behind the Flyers and Bruins, and two ahead of the Penguins and Sabres.
Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings
10 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Speaking of the Ducks, a win over their SoCal rivals would diminish the Kings’ chances of catching Vegas for the No. 1 seed in the Pacific; L.A. begins the evening six points back.
With the regular season ending April 17, we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Thursday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
New York Rangers at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche, 9 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Wednesday’s scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Philadelphia Flyers 8, New York Rangers 5
Minnesota Wild 8, San Jose Sharks 7 (OT)
Edmonton Oilers 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 105.1
Next game: vs. MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 102.0
Next game: vs. DET (Friday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 4
Points pace: 98.8
Next game: vs. DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 90
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 94.6
Next game: vs. MTL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 91.5
Next game: @ OTT (Friday)
Playoff chances: 97.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 3
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 80.9
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 75.8
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Metro Division
Points: 107
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 5
Points pace: 114.0
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 4
Points pace: 93.6
Next game: vs. PIT (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.8%
Tragic number: 3
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84.1
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 3
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.7%
Tragic number: 1
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 78.9
Next game: @ NJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 76.7
Next game: vs. NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 110
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 115.6
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 106
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 111.4
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 3
Points pace: 103.8
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 3
Points pace: 96.5
Next game: @ CGY (Friday)
Playoff chances: 91.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 95.3
Next game: @ SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 97.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 88.3
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 67.3
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 56.8
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 103
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 108.3
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 5
Points pace: 103.3
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 95
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 99.9
Next game: vs. SJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 92.5
Next game: vs. MIN (Friday)
Playoff chances: 11.3%
Tragic number: 4
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 89.4
Next game: @ COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 76.8
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 53.6
Next game: @ EDM (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: A “y” means that the team has clinched the division title. An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 28
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 28
There were plenty of goals scored in the NHL on Wednesday night, and four players accounted for a bulk of them.
Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek and San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini traded hat tricks in one contest, and Toronto’s Matthew Knies and Philadelphia’s Tyson Foerster also had three-goal games. The four three-goal efforts in the first three games of the five-game schedule were the most in the NHL since five hat tricks on April 1, 2023.
In the highest scoring game of the night, Eriksson Ek had a career-high four goals in his return from a lower-body injury in the Wild’s 8-7 overtime victory over the Sharks. San Jose was led by Celebrini, a rookie star who finished with three goals and two assists.
Knies had his second hat trick of the season for the Maple Leafs in a 4-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Foerster posted his first NHL hat trick for the Flyers in an 8-5 win over the New York Rangers.
The NHL had three three-hat trick days this season on Dec. 12, Dec. 27, Jan. 8 and April 5.
Having clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2017 on Tuesday, the Ottawa Senators are considering holding out injured captain Brady Tkachuk for the final four regular-season games.
Tkachuk, 25, has missed the past five games with an upper-body injury suffered on a hit from Pittsburgh defenseman Ryan Graves in the host Penguins’ 1-0 overtime victory on March 30.
Senators general manager Steve Staios said Wednesday that Tkachuk might play if the playoffs started Thursday, but he couldn’t give a definitive answer.
“[Tkachuk] continues to progress,” said Staios, also the team’s president of hockey operations. “Now that we’ve clinched a playoff spot, I think every team goes through these discussions. Like, what is the best situation? Do you rest players? How do you manage that? We haven’t figured that part out yet, but to me, you always want to keep the team moving along and competing at a high level to roll into the playoffs at the right time. But certainly, those will be discussions that we’ll have, as far as lineup for the last four games.”
Tkachuk has a team highs with 29 goals and 123 penalty minutes, as well as 26 assists, a plus-2 rating, 33 blocks and 227 hits in 71 games.
The Senators (42-30-6, 90 points) have the first wild-card berth in the Eastern Conference. Their regular-season schedule continues Friday with a visit from the Montreal Canadiens, followed by home games against Philadelphia on Sunday, Chicago on Tuesday and Carolina on April 17.
Ottawa selected Tkachuk with the fourth overall pick of the 2018 NHL Draft, a year after the Senators lost to the Penguins in the conference finals. He made his NHL debut in 2018 and has 191 goals, 404 points, 750 penalty minutes, 193 blocks and 1,758 hits in 511 regular-season games.
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