
MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1 one month into the season?
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adminWe’re around the one-month mark of the 2023 MLB season, and while it’s still too early to be paying too much attention to the standings, five of the six division leaders are teams that didn’t win their divisions last year.
We’re not even out of April yet and there’s a long season ahead, but it’s nevertheless surprising to see teams such as the Rangers and Pirates atop their respective divisions. Both teams are on the move in our Power Rankings, too, as Texas has cracked the top 10 and Pittsburgh made the biggest jump of the season so far, up seven spots to No. 14.
Can these clubs carry their momentum into May?
Our expert panel has ranked all 30 teams based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Joon Lee to weigh in with an observation for each team.
Record: 20-5
Previous ranking: 2
Tampa Bay received a blow to its rotation after Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery on Monday, but the Rays keep rolling. Randy Arozarena is mashing at the plate, hitting .341/.410/.571 through 23 games so far this season, ranking third among position players on the team with 1.0 bWAR. Zach Eflin — the team’s biggest free agent signing this offseason — looks strong through three starts, posting a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings. — Lee
Record: 17-8
Previous ranking: 1
The Braves had a tough weekend series at home against the Astros — losing all three games. On Friday, the bullpen allowed three runs in the seventh and then A.J. Minter served up a game-losing home run to Yordan Alvarez in the ninth. Kyle Wright was cruising on Saturday until Alvarez and Kyle Tucker connected for two-run homers in the sixth. On Sunday, the Astros scored five runs in the final two innings for a 5-2 victory as Minter once again took the loss.
Spencer Strider came to the rescue on Monday, taking a no-hitter into the eighth against the Marlins (it would have been a perfect game attempt if not for Matt Olson‘s error). He settled for two hits in eight innings with 13 strikeouts — and has become the Cy Young betting favorite in Vegas. — Schoenfield
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 4
The big news from this past week — beyond Justin Verlander‘s impending return — was Max Scherzer‘s ejection in the fourth inning of a win on April 19, resulting in a 10-day suspension the following day for excessive stickiness on his fingers. He’s just the third pitcher to be ejected from a game since umpires began in-game checks in 2021. ESPN analyst David Cone showed how a little rosin and alcohol (which Scherzer claimed he used to wash his hands after the umpires asked) can actually increase the tackiness. Of note: Umpire Phil Cuzzi has tossed all three of those pitchers. The Mets, meanwhile, will have to get through this stretch without Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco (ailing right elbow) and Jose Quintana. Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi have entered the rotation. — Schoenfield
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 7
One guy playing an unexpectedly large role in the American League playoff chase this season is Astros utility man Mauricio Dubon, who has started 21 games at second base because of the absence of Jose Altuve. All Dubon has done is hit .330/.355/.420 in the early going with 18 runs scored. He’s been hitting in Altuve’s usual leadoff spot since April 15, and during that span, he’s hit .313 with 11 runs scored in 11 games, all while pushing his hitting streak to 20 games, the longest in the majors this season and the longest by an Astros player since Michael Brantley in 2019. As a team, the Astros get plenty of attention, but if there is one guy on the roster who likely isn’t getting the due he’s earned, it’s Dubon. — Doolittle
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 3
Yankees fans might be inching closer to the panic button, as the team sits just ahead of the Red Sox in fourth place in the American League East after the Twins won their first season series over New York since 2001 this week. Franchy Cordero has come back down to earth after getting off to a scorching hot start with the Yankees. One of the team’s biggest struggles remains the outfield, with both Willie Calhoun and Aaron Hicks ranking among the least productive position players in baseball receiving regular playing time. They both boast a Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR) below 0. — Lee
Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 6
In addition to the hot starts from Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, Kevin Kiermaier has been hitting the cover off the ball, hitting .299/.338/.448 in 20 games this season. Toronto’s offense could reach a whole other level when outfielder Daulton Varsho finds his stroke at the plate, as he’s hit .198/.300/.314 in 24 games. Toronto will need more from Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah, but Yusei Kikuchi is off to a strong start, posting a 3.00 ERA in five starts. — Lee
Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 5
Milwaukee came back down to earth following its successful road trip with series wins over the Padres and Mariners, losing a home series to the Red Sox while compiling a 5.60 ERA in a five-day span ending on Tuesday. That ranked 14th in the National League, ahead of only the Marlins. Most of that damage came on Saturday in a 12-5 loss to Boston. It was about the only poorly pitched game of the month for Milwaukee, with most of the runs scored against the bullpen. The Brewers still rank third overall in ERA in the NL and have firmly established themselves as contenders in the NL Central for the long haul. — Rogers
Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 8
It’s still early, of course, but Max Muncy has eased concerns that his down year in 2022 would spill over into 2023. He is OPS’ing 1.129 with a major-league-leading 11 home runs while boasting the sport’s second-highest walk rate thus far, joining upstart rookie James Outman in helping to carry the Dodgers’ offense through the first month. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have yet to hit full stride, Will Smith is on the injured list, and the likes of David Peralta, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas, the latter of whom is nursing a hamstring injury, have struggled. Muncy’s production has been essential. — Gonzalez
Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 11
The longer the Rangers hang around first place in the AL West, the more they give credence to the idea that they have a shot to contend. That was no sure thing a few months ago, even with their big-name offseason additions, but manager Bruce Bochy has Texas playing good baseball. Adolis Garcia is heating up, too. He went 8-for-19 with three home runs over a four-game span from last Friday to Tuesday, earning him AL Player of the Week honors. All three of his long balls came in a historic game for him on Saturday, as he went 5-for-5 against the A’s, driving in eight runs while totaling 16 bases. Garcia had a whole week of production in one game. — Rogers
Record: 13-13
Previous ranking: 9
Fernando Tatis Jr. struggled through his first five games, getting his first home run out of the way but slashing only .182/.250/.318. Wednesday’s victory at Wrigley Field, however, might have qualified as his coming-out party. Tatis, the superstar shortstop-turned-outfielder coming off a PED suspension, drove in three runs, including the ones that put his team ahead late. The Padres are still waiting on Manny Machado and Juan Soto to get going. Tatis providing a spark from the leadoff spot would be huge for them at the moment. — Gonzalez
Record: 16-8
Previous ranking: 14
Baltimore’s winning streak might have come against some of the lesser competition in baseball, but it still finds itself with a record that keeps it on pace with the first-place Rays. This isn’t the best the Orioles can be, either, with infielder Gunnar Henderson struggling at the plate to start the season, hitting .194/.357/.328 with two homers in 21 games. Meanwhile, shortstop Jorge Mateo continues an incredibly hot start to the season, ranking in the top 10 among all position players in bWAR. — Lee
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 10
The collective performance by the big three of the Twins’ rotation — Sonny Gray (3-0, 0.62 ERA), Joe Ryan (5-0, 2.81) and Pablo Lopez (1-2, 3.00) — has been one of the emergent stories of baseball’s first month. All three, arguably among the top 10 Cy Young candidates in the AL, are established veterans who have nonetheless found new levels to their game this season. There was a lot of uncertainty about the Twins’ pitching program last season with the highly respected Wes Johnson announcing he was leaving to return to college baseball. Most of everything that has happened since then suggests that Minnesota’s pitchers are in good hands with Pete Maki heading up the operation. — Doolittle
Record: 13-10
Previous ranking: 15
The euphoria surrounding the Cubs’ early-season success was tempered a little when the Dodgers took three of four games from Chicago at Wrigley Field over the weekend, with Muncy and Outman doing a lot of the damage for L.A. But the Cubs should still be proud of their season so far.
Now, they just need to figure out how to get out of the ninth inning, as Michael Fulmer has had a rough month. He’s blown two saves while compiling an 8.68 ERA in the early going, forcing manager David Ross to look elsewhere. Lefty Brandon Hughes could get some chances or so could righty Mark Leiter Jr., who was designated for assignment by the Cubs in January. Now he’s a valuable thrower in the pen. Veteran Brad Boxberger is another option. — Rogers
Record: 17-8
Previous ranking: 21
When was the last time the Pirates were the talk of the baseball world? After vaulting to the top of the standings, they made big news on Tuesday by signing center fielder Bryan Reynolds to an eight-year, $106.75 million deal. It signals the Pirates’ desire to compete and not just perennially rebuild. Their string of 12 consecutive quality starts was longer than any streak for a team all of last season, as well as the first month of this one. Manager Derek Shelton was also given an extension. Pittsburgh could not have asked for a better first month to the season. — Rogers
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 12
Even with injuries sidelining rotation fixtures Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale, the Guardians’ pitching has been terrific during an overall start that, to be kind, can be summed up as topsy-turvy. An offense that looked solid during the Guardians’ season-opening road trip to the West Coast has been in a virtual free fall over the past two weeks, even as Cleveland has come up against some of the lesser competition on its schedule.
Perhaps even more concerning for the position player group is that the Guardians’ defense, which was such a key part of their surprise run to the AL Central crown in 2022, has ranked near the bottom of the majors this season. The good news: It’s still early. — Doolittle
Record: 14-12
Previous ranking: 13
The D-backs’ sense of urgency can be felt in the way they’ve shaken up their rotation. On April 20, they cut ties with an ineffective Madison Bumgarner, eating a remaining $34 million in salary in the process. Four days later, they optioned one of their promising young pitchers, Drey Jameson, back to the minor leagues. The expectation is that Brandon Pfaadt, ranked 32nd in Kiley McDaniel’s Top 100, will eventually fill his spot in the rotation. Pfaadt, 24, has a 3.91 ERA in his first five Triple-A starts this year, striking out 30 and walking only six in 25⅓ innings. — Gonzalez
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 19
Yes, that’s Brandon Marsh leading the majors in OPS at 1.138 — .351/.435/.703 with 14 extra-base hits, including an MLB-leading four triples. The Phillies acquired him for his glove in center field, not his offensive potential — he posted a .679 OPS last season in his first full year in the majors — so this is a shocking start.
One big change: He’s swinging less. He hacked at the first pitch 27% of the time last season; that’s down to below 15%, which has helped improve his overall chase rate. Yes, swinging at strikes helps. There’s been some good fortune here — his Statcast numbers suggest an expected batting average of .253 — but there’s been a real change in approach that is paying dividends. — Schoenfield
Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 16
After going 3-for-4 on Tuesday, including hitting his seventh home run, Jarred Kelenic moved atop the AL leaderboard in OPS. For all the attention given to his hot spring training, nobody expected him to turn into one of the league’s best hitters in the first month.
While some minor mechanical adjustments have no doubt helped, it’s more about Kelenic’s pitch awareness: recognizing off-speed and laying off fastballs up out of the zone. His chase rate has improved — he’s in the 83rd percentile — and his contact rate in the zone has gone way up. His first two seasons, he hit .124 against curves, sliders and changeups. He’s holding his own against those pitches in 2023 with a an average above .250 and three home runs. And he’s not missing fastballs: .405 with four home runs. — Schoenfield
Record: 13-13
Previous ranking: 20
It’s still early, but Chris Sale‘s struggles remain one of Boston’s biggest concerns. Sale struggled against the Orioles on Monday, allowing five runs on nine hits while striking out none in five innings. The lefty is the key to the Red Sox rotation resembling anything close to playoff-caliber. But Sale largely looks like someone who might be past his prime, rather than someone who can find some magic again after pitching in a total of 11 games over the previous three seasons. — Lee
Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 17
One of the Angels’ trades with the Phillies last summer was looking like a legitimate win-win. While Marsh is tearing it up in Philadelphia, Logan O’Hoppe was starting to look like a cornerstone catcher, OPS’ing .886 through the first 16 games of his age-23 season while showing all the traits necessary to stick at the position. But O’Hoppe tore the labrum in his left shoulder on a swing last Thursday, and now his season might be over. With Max Stassi still recovering, the Angels are giving meaningful playing time to their fourth-string catcher. Their depth at first base and shortstop has also been tested. — Gonzalez
Record: 9-16
Previous ranking: 18
A miserable month can’t come to a close soon enough for the Cardinals. St. Louis is finally starting to pitch better, but that doesn’t excuse lofty ERAs for starters Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in April. The Cards aren’t deep enough on the mound to withstand multiple starters struggling — and that’s not to mention Jack Flaherty, who is still slowly returning to form after all of his injuries. If those starters don’t get rolling, it’s going to be a long season in St. Louis — no matter how well the offense performs. — Rogers
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 22
The Marlins had won four straight series — against the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants and Guardians — before dropping their past two games against the Braves. With the team hovering around .500, a reason to be optimistic is that the rotation — the supposed strength of the team — hasn’t been all that great so far, ranking 17th in the majors in ERA. Edward Cabrera‘s success will be a huge key, with Sandy Alcantara in somewhat of a slump and Trevor Rogers landing on the IL with a left biceps strain. Cabrera had a 3.01 ERA in his 14 starts last season but has an MLB-leading 20 walks in 22 innings this season. He has to start getting ahead of more hitters. — Schoenfield
Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 24
The homer-happy Giants have been undone largely by their bullpen thus far. Their relievers have combined for a 5.17 ERA , second-worst in the NL, while allowing 14 home runs in only 94 innings. Of notable concern has been the bridge to the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, John Brebbia and closer Camilo Doval, though Brebbia’s ERA is a little bloated at the moment as well. The bullpen could use some of the depth that the lineup has displayed, in which nine different players have homered at least three times through the season’s first four weeks. — Gonzalez
Record: 7-18
Previous ranking: 23
The White Sox’s cruel April continues, and while their season is not yet a wasteland, their playoff probabilities seemingly plummet with each passing game. With the hot start by Luis Robert Jr. wearing off in recent games, there really is no silver lining to be found from Chicago’s showing thus far. Looking ahead, only the eventual returns of Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Liam Hendriks give South Side fans something to look forward to. This roster has already been exposed, so the question for a less gruesome May becomes: By the time the White Sox get healthy, will it already be too late? — Doolittle
Record: 9-14
Previous ranking: 26
No team in the AL has a larger discrepancy between expected record — based on run differential — and actual record. Yet a win is a win, and as we near the end of April, the Tigers are closer to second place in the AL Central than fourth. After Detroit’s pitching staff was blitzed early by the Rays, Astros and Red Sox, the run prevention has gotten off the deck and trended toward league average. Eduardo Rodriguez looks resurgent in the rotation, and manager AJ Hinch has unfurled a vicious one-two high-leverage punch at the back of his bullpen in Jason Foley and Alex Lange. So, the theme for the Tigers’ first month: Hey, it could be a lot worse. — Doolittle
Record: 10-15
Previous ranking: 25
Cincinnati got a taste of what the Pirates are all about this month when it was swept in a four-game series over the weekend, scoring only six runs. The Reds gave up only 12 themselves, so there were a few positives, including a solid outing from Hunter Greene. But Nick Lodolo had his first bad start this season when the Rangers tagged him for nine hits and six runs over four innings on Monday. The growing pains that the Reds’ rotation will go through this season should pay dividends down the line — but it won’t be anytime soon. — Rogers
Record: 8-18
Previous ranking: 27
The Rockies activated German Marquez off the IL for Wednesday’s start, leaving them with seemingly no choice but to designate Jose Urena for assignment. Urena, re-signed on a one-year, $3.5 million contract that included a 2024 club option this offseason, was 0-4 with a 9.82 ERA through his first five starts this season, while giving up nine home runs and issuing 14 walks in 18⅓ innings. One positive: Austin Gomber, also struggling mightily, pitched five scoreless innings against the Guardians on Monday. — Gonzalez
Record: 9-14
Previous ranking: 29
After a three-homer game in his first start, Josiah Gray has spun off four straight solid starts with no more than two runs allowed, including six scoreless innings against the Mets on Tuesday with nine strikeouts. Those four games haven’t come against an easy slate, either: at Colorado and then against the Angels, Orioles and Mets.
The other pitcher for Washington perhaps making a big leap is reliever Mason Thompson. He’s averaged nearly two innings per outing and leads all relievers in innings entering Thursday. He’s posted an impressive 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with just 10 hits in 18⅔ innings. The Nationals aren’t going anywhere in 2023, but this is what they need: some of their young players to prove themselves as legit major leaguers. — Schoenfield
Record: 6-19
Previous ranking: 28
If the theme for the Tigers is “Hey, it could be a lot worse,” for the Royals it’s more like, “How much worse can it get?” It’s been a rough month for Kansas City, made even more devastating this week by the news that Kris Bubic is headed for Tommy John surgery. Even the team’s defense, which has solid overall metrics, has recently shown a penchant for committing clutch errors. The short-term project for Matt Quatraro, the Royals’ first-year manager, is simply to create some kind of positive momentum, because a big step back is not what Kansas City fans were expecting from this stage of their team’s ever-lengthening rebuild. — Doolittle
Record: 5-20
Previous ranking: 30
The Athletics look like one of the worst teams in recent memory, with a rotation led by JP Sears, whose 4.98 ERA is the lowest of any pitcher who’s started a game on the team. This disaster of a season is what happens when ownership refuses to invest in a team for the long term, trading away star players to maximize team revenue. Oakland traded away Chapman, Matt Olson, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy and has not received much in return. Oakland’s baseball fans deserve so much better than this. — Lee
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Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates
Published
3 hours agoon
July 29, 2025By
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Bill ConnellyJul 29, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.
In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.
Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.
In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!
The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?
Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains
When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.
These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.
In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:
2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)
2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)
From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”
Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.
This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.
2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)
Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”
Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.
2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)
2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)
2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)
From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”
Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.
I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.
2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)
From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”
Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.
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2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)
From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”
This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!
With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.
2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)
From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”
It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble
In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.
Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:
2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)
From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”
Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.
0:52
FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.
2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)
Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”
This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.
2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.
2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)
From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”
The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.
I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.
2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)
Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”
In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.
Sports
‘Just a top-shelf human being’: Teammates, opponents remember Ryne Sandberg
Published
12 hours agoon
July 29, 2025By
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Jesse RogersJul 28, 2025, 11:30 PM ET
Close- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
Chicago Cubs Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg died on Monday at age 65. Sandberg, known for his power, speed and defensive prowess during his 16-year major league career, was the face of the Cubs during his 15 seasons with the franchise and a fan favorite throughout the sport.
Originally diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January of 2024, Sandberg was still around the Cubs as recently as spring training — and just as he did in his playing days, he made his presence felt with his signature combination of power and grace.
As the baseball world mourns the loss of an icon, those who knew Sandberg best shared their favorite stories about the Hall of Famer.
‘Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m.’
Sandberg was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Cubs in January 1982 after struggling during his first call-up in Philly. A legendarily hard worker, Sandberg was willing to do whatever it took to make sure his stay in Chicago would go differently.
Larry Bowa, who was dealt along with Sandberg in the trade for veteran infielder Ivan DeJesus, remembers the hours Sandberg put in as he transformed from a light-hitting rookie in Philadelphia to a budding superstar in Chicago.
“I think about how he handled himself when he first got called up. He struggled out of the gate. I watched this guy not let it affect him. It might have affected him on the inside, but the way he handled himself on the outside was great,” Bowa said.
“Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m. [Manager] Jim Frey would tell him [to] hit every ball over the tarp and into the seats down the left-field line in foul territory. Hit it with authority over that tarp. Ryno looked at him like he was crazy. ‘I want every ball with authority over that tarp,’ Frey kept telling him. He did it for a week straight. That’s how he learned how to pull the ball.”
‘Just ungodly consistent’
2:27
How Ryne Sandberg will be remembered in Chicago
Jesse Rogers reflects on Ryne Sandberg’s career in Chicago after he died on Monday at the age of 65.
After his power stroke clicked, it didn’t take long for Sandberg to take his game to the highest level. He was named National League MVP in 1984 after hitting .314 with 19 home runs and 19 triples, stealing 32 bases and leading the Cubs to their first postseason appearance in 39 years.
Perhaps no one had a better view for Sandberg’s dominant campaign than his close friend, Cubs leadoff hitter Bobby Dernier. The two batted 1-2 in the Chicago lineup and earned the nickname “The Daily Double” as they combined to score 208 runs that season.
“Just ungodly consistent,” Dernier said of what made Sandberg so great. “And the style of game back then demanded a little bit of baserunning prowess and being capable of stealing bases and scoring a lot of runs. And so that was our style. He was tremendous.
“Pitchers were always paying a little more attention to me on the bases than him at the plate, and that was a big mistake and he’d take full advantage. He’d almost giggle about it, is what I remember in the dugout.”
Sandberg cemented his legacy during that season with a signature game against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 23, forever known in Chicago as “The Sandberg Game.” He hit two game-tying home runs off Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter in the ninth and 10th innings before the Cubs won the game in the 11th — in front of a national TV audience.
“After he tied it up, I ended up hitting the ball off the wall, but if mine goes out, it’s probably never called the Sandberg game,” outfielder Gary Matthews said with a laugh. “He was great at everything that he did. I hit behind him and he was always on base.”
‘He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark’
Sandberg hit 282 career home runs during an era of baseball where second baseman weren’t known for that kind of power, but he was more than just a long ball threat. Six of those home runs — the second most off an opposing pitcher — were hit off Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who recalled one memorable afternoon for Sandberg.
“I gave up two home runs to him in a game and I had a [autograph] card show after the game and everyone in the world knew I gave up two home runs to Ryne Sandberg,” Smoltz said. “One was an inside-the-park home run. Those fans at the card show reminded me of that.
“He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark. He had a flatter swing that worked great for the angles at Wrigley Field, especially when the wind was blowing in.”
Sandberg was more than just an offensive threat; he also won nine consecutive Gold Glove awards during his time with the Cubs and posted a 123-game errorless streak.
“I used to tell Joe Morgan, ‘This guy doesn’t have to take a second seat to anybody on defense,'” Matthews said. “Morgan would say Ryne’s uniform was always clean. I said, ‘Well, you have to dive because you can’t get in front of it! Don’t get on him for perfecting the backhand.’ In the end Joe said, ‘You’re right.'”
‘He’s in a class by himself’
For all of his accomplishments on the field, the way Sandberg handled himself as a competitor and away from the game is what many who knew him best will remember about him.
“He’s an outstanding human being,” Bowa said. “That’s what I think of. Such a good family guy. His mental toughness is off the charts. Don’t let people deceive you by that little laugh he has all the time. He wanted to win as much as anybody. I’ve been around Pete Rose, and Ryno is right there.”
Smoltz added: “He’s in a class by himself. You would never know he was one of the greatest players ever, just by the way he carried himself and the ‘aw, shucks’ type attitude.
“I love competing against greatness that has integrity and character like Ryne Sandberg had. The way he carried himself, the way he was as a person is what I think about. It sure was nice to see him represent the sport and the city he played for.”
“Joy,” Dernier said. “That’s the first thing, and way so many more happiness types of stories. And it’s a grin on my face to think about him. And yeah, right now it’s melancholy that we know he’s gotten called up to the real big leagues. But I’m glad I knew him and I loved him being underestimated.”
‘Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball’
Of course, there were a few moments in Sandberg’s career where he wasn’t as gracious. In the Cubs clubhouse, teammates saw a different side of the Hall of Famer — a playful troublemaker and prankster.
“We had those chairs directors they use making movies, held together by sticks,” Matthews said. “Ryno would always take the sticks out, put the seat back in, and daily I’d fall to the ground. He’d be over there snickering or walking away.
“Or he would load your cigarette up and make it explode in a non-harmful way. Then when you figured it out, he would put two of those in the pack. He thought that was the funniest thing.”
Despite that kind of back-and-forth, Matthews and Sandberg often golfed together.
“I would ask for a few strokes,” Matthews said. “He would politely say, ‘no strokes, play better.’ He would hit some balls you couldn’t believe. Ball after ball. He would hit one and know it’s a good one but he’d ask, ‘Do you think that was any good?’ And just smile at me.
“Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball,” Matthews said with a laugh.
“He’d stir the pot and then walk away and look over his shoulder,” Bowa added. “He’d be cracking up after getting us going. He was so quiet outwardly with you guys [media], but not with us.”
‘He made such an impact on me ‘
After his playing days, Sandberg served as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies from 2013 to 2015 before returning to Chicago, often putting on a uniform as a spring instructor and imparting the lessons from his Hall of Fame career to a new generation of Cubs.
“I just think it’s cool that he’s somebody that has kind of done everything in our sport but still doesn’t approach the game with any kind of ego,” current Chicago second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “He doesn’t talk like he has the answers to everything or the conversation is never about him.
“He’s kind of softspoken, but then if you got him going on something he really cared about, it’s really cool to hear him open up, whether it’s routines he had or how he took care of his body or just fun memories with teammates or playing at Wrigley.”
Shortstop Dansby Swanson added: “Just such a top-shelf human being. He made such an impact on me even in my short time of being able to be around him. Just an unbelievable human being and someone that I’m very, very grateful to have met and spent time with, whether it’s talking about life or talking about ball.”
It’s those attributes, the ones the baseball world got to see on the field and the ones only his teammates were able to witness, that were missed in retirement. But his attitude about life stands out for everyone.
“We talked about a lot of things, about defense and offense, but we talked about life, too,” rookie third baseman Matt Shaw said. “When he first came up, he struggled a little bit early on and he was like, ‘No matter what happens, you just got to keep believing in yourself and keep going.’ And I definitely take that to heart, and that’s something that I definitely think about a lot — is that belief to just to keep going.”

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ESPN News Services
Jul 28, 2025, 09:26 PM ET
CHICAGO — Ryne Sandberg, a Hall of Fame second baseman who became one of baseball’s best all-around players while starring for the Chicago Cubs died Monday at age 65.
Sandberg was surrounded by his family when he died at his home, according to the team.
Sandberg announced in January 2024 that he was diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer. He had chemotherapy and radiation treatments, and then said in August 2024 that he was cancer-free.
But he posted on Instagram on Dec. 10 that his cancer had returned and spread to other organs. He announced this month that he was still fighting, while “looking forward to making the most of every day with my loving family and friends.”
Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts said Sandberg “will be remembered as one of the all-time greats in nearly 150 years of this historic franchise.”
“His dedication to and respect for the game, along with his unrelenting integrity, grit, hustle, and competitive fire were hallmarks of his career,” Ricketts said in the team’s statement.
The Cubs said they would wear a special jersey patch to commemorate Sandberg for the rest of the season.
Sandberg was born and raised in Spokane, Washington. He was selected out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 20th round of the 1978 amateur draft.
He made his major league debut in 1981 and went 1-for-6 in 13 games with the Phillies. In January 1982, he was traded to Chicago with Larry Bowa for veteran infielder Ivan De Jesus.
It turned into one of the most lopsided deals in baseball history.
Sandberg hit .285 with 282 homers, 1,061 RBIs and 344 steals in 15 years with Chicago. He made 10 All-Star teams — winning the Home Run Derby in 1990 — and collected nine Gold Gloves.
“Ryne Sandberg was a legend of the Chicago Cubs franchise and a beloved figure throughout Major League Baseball,” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said. “He was a five-tool player who excelled in every facet of the game thanks to his power, speed and work ethic.”
Even with Sandberg’s stellar play, the Cubs made only two postseason appearances in his time there.
He was the National League MVP in 1984, batting .314 with 19 homers, 84 RBIs, 32 steals, 19 triples and 114 runs scored. Chicago won the NL East and Sandberg hit .368 (7-for-19) in the playoffs, but the Cubs were eliminated by San Diego after winning the first two games of the NL Championship Series at Wrigley Field.
The 1984 season featured what Cubs fans still call “The Sandberg Game,” when he homered twice and drove in seven runs in a 12-11 victory over St. Louis in 11 innings on June 23.
The Cubs paid tribute to Sandberg and that game when they unveiled a statue of the infielder outside Wrigley Field on that date in 2024.
“He was a superhero in this city,” Jed Hoyer, Cubs president of baseball operations, said during a TV broadcast of the team’s game on July 20. “You think about [Michael] Jordan, Walter Payton and Ryne Sandberg all here at the same time, and I can’t imagine a person handling their fame better, their responsibility for a city better than he did.”
Sandberg led Chicago back to the playoffs in 1989, hitting .290 with 30 homers as the Cubs won the NL East. He batted .400 (8-for-20) in the NLCS, but Chicago lost to San Francisco in five games.
Sandberg set a career high with an NL-best 40 homers in 1990 and drove in a career-best 100 runs in 1990 and 1991, but he never made it back to the postseason. He retired after the 1997 season.
“When you examine the offense and defense, you’ll find some years where he was the best player you’ve ever seen in your life,” former Cubs first baseman Mark Grace said.
Sandberg was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2005, receiving 76.2% of the vote by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in his third year on the ballot. The Cubs retired his No. 23 that same season.
“Ryne Sandberg had a relentless work ethic and an unshakable positive outlook,” Hall of Fame chair Jane Forbes Clark said. “With it, he inspired all those who knew him.”
Sandberg also managed the Phillies from August 2013 to June 2015, going 119-159. He got the interim job when Charlie Manuel was fired, and he resigned with the Phillies in the middle of a difficult 2015 season.
Sandberg is survived by his wife, Margaret; his children, Justin, Lindsey, Steven, BR and Adriane; and 11 grandchildren.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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