The world’s largest economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, according to the first official estimate which has raised fears of recession ahead.
Growth was measured at an annualised rate of 1.1% between January and March, the Commerce Department said.
Economists had been expecting a figure of 2%.
The slump followed growth of 2.6%, by the same measure, during the final three months of 2023.
The growth was mainly explained by consumer spending holding up, probably due to a low unemployment rate, as the aggressive pace of interest rate rises to tame inflation hit other areas, such as the housing market, harder.
The data also pointed to a big reduction in business inventories – behaviour that is typically seen in anticipation of an economic downturn.
Economists are split on the prospect of recession being declared.
The definition of a technical recession across most of the world is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Image: The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5% and is expected to hike again next month
By that measure, the US economy would have been in recession during the first half of last year.
Advertisement
But the country defines such a contraction differently. It is determined by a committee of experts.
The US economy’s low jobless rate largely prevented a recession being declared last year but conditions are darkening for 2023.
Many economists say the cumulative impact of the Fed Reserve’s rate hikes has yet to be fully felt while the pace of hiring is slowing.
Many banks, which are charging higher interest rates as a result, have also muddied the waters due to a tightening of lending standards since the failure last month of two major banks – Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
There are signs the crisis of confidence is not over yet as First Republic, a major regional lender, has seen a fresh run on its share price this week taking it to fresh lows.
It was effectively rescued last month by a $30bn cash injection from 11 major peers and revealed on Tuesday that $100bn had been withdrawn by depositors during the frenzy to grip the sector.
It has been reported that the federal government is unwilling to engineer a rescue.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:26
March: ‘Our banking system is safe’
Another political challenge is also gaining traction.
The Republican-dominated House of Representatives has moved to pressure President Biden over a looming debt ceiling deadline by voting to raise the limit only in exchange for big spending cuts.
A default would plunge the US economy into chaos so it forces Mr Biden to negotiate with his political opponents.
Brian Klimke, investment director at Cetera Investment Management, said of the economic growth figures: “January was really the standout month and since then we’ve seen weakness in February and March, which has really been slowly dragging down the economy.
“If we’re looking to the future, data does seem to be continuing to weaken.
“The good news is we do think a recession could be mild.”
Thousands of motorists who bought cars on finance before 2021 could be set for payouts as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has said it will consult on a compensation scheme.
In a statement released on Sunday, the FCA said its review of the past use of motor finance “has shown that many firms were not complying with the law or our disclosure rules that were in force when they sold loans to consumers”.
“Where consumers have lost out, they should be appropriately compensated in an orderly, consistent and efficient way,” the statement continued.
The FCA said it estimates the cost of any scheme, including compensation and administrative costs, to be no lower than £9bn – adding that a total cost of £13.5bn is “more plausible”.
It is unclear how many people could be eligible for a pay-out. The authority estimates most individuals will probably receive less than £950 in compensation.
The consultation will be published by early October and any scheme will be finalised in time for people to start receiving compensation next year.
What motorists should do next
The FCA says you may be affected if you bought a car under a finance scheme, including hire purchase agreements, before 28 January 2021.
Anyone who has already complained does not need to do anything.
The authority added: “Consumers concerned that they were not told about commission, and who think they may have paid too much for the finance, should complain now.”
Its website advises drivers to complain to their finance provider first.
If you’re unhappy with the response, you can then contact the Financial Ombudsman.
The FCA has said any compensation scheme will be easy to participate in, without drivers needing to use a claims management company or law firm.
It has warned motorists that doing so could end up costing you 30% of any compensation in fees.
The announcement comes after the Supreme Court ruled on a separate, but similar, case on Friday.
The court overturned a ruling that would have meant millions of motorists could have been due compensation over “secret” commission payments made to car dealers as part of finance arrangements.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:34
Car finance scandal explained
The FCA’s case concerns discretionary commission arrangements (DCAs) – a practice banned in 2021.
Under these arrangements, brokers and dealers increased the amount of interest they earned without telling buyers and received more commission for it. This is said to have then incentivised sellers to maximise interest rates.
In light of the Supreme Court’s judgment, any compensation scheme could also cover non-discretionary commission arrangements, the FCA has said. These arrangements are ones where the buyer’s interest rate did not impact the dealer’s commission.
This is because part of the court’s ruling “makes clear that non-disclosure of other facts relating to the commission can make the relationship [between a salesperson and buyer] unfair,” it said.
It was previously estimated that about 40% of car finance deals included DCAs while 99% involved a commission payment to a broker.
Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the FCA, said: “It is clear that some firms have broken the law and our rules. It’s fair for their customers to be compensated.
“We also want to ensure that the market, relied on by millions each year, can continue to work well and consumers can get a fair deal.”
The London-listed investment group ICG is closing in on a £200m deal to buy three of Britain’s biggest regional airports.
Sky News has learnt that ICG is expected to sign a formal agreement to buy Bournemouth, Exeter and Norwich airports later this month.
The trio of sites collectively serve just over 2 million passengers annually.
ICG is buying the airports from Rigby Group, a privately owned conglomerate which has interests in the hotels, software and technology sectors.
Exeter acted as the hub for Flybe, the regional carrier which collapsed in the aftermath of the pandemic.
The deal will come amid a frenzy of activity involving Britain’s major airports as infrastructure investors seek to exploit a recovery in their valuations.
AviAlliance, which is owned by the Canadian pension fund PSP Investments, agreed to buy the parent company of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton airports for £1.55bn last year.
More from Money
London City Airport’s shareholder base has just been shaken up with a deal which saw Australia’s Macquarie take a large stake.
French investor Ardian has increased its investment in Heathrow Airport as the UK’s biggest aviation hub proposes an expansion that will cost tens of billions of pounds.
Some of the world’s leading tech companies are betting big on very small innovations.
Last week, Samsung released its Galaxy Z Fold 7 which – when open – has a thickness of just 4.2mm, one of the slimmest folding phones ever to hit the market.
And Honor, a spin-off from Chinese smartphone company Huawei, will soon ship its latest foldable – the slimmest in the world. Its new Honor Magic V5 model is only 8.8mm thick when folded, and a mere 4.1mm when open.
Apple is also expected to release a foldable in the second half of next year, according to a note by analysts at JPMorgan published this week.
The race to miniaturise technology is speeding up, the ultimate prize being the next evolution in consumer devices.
Whether it be wearable devices, such as smartglasses, watches, rings or foldables – there is enormous market potential for any manufacturer that can make its products small enough.
Despite being thinner than its predecessor, Honor claims its Magic V5 also offers significant improvements to battery life, processing power, and camera capabilities.
More from Money
Hope Cao, a product expert at Honor told Sky News the progress was “due largely to our silicon carbon battery technology”. These batteries are a next-generation breakthrough that offers higher energy density compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, and are becoming more common in consumer devices.
Image: The Magic V5. Pic: Honor
Honor also told Sky News it had used its own AI model “to precisely test and find the optimum design, which was both the slimmest, as well as, the most durable.”
However, research and development into miniaturisation goes well beyond just folding phones.
A company that’s been at the forefront of developing augmented reality (AR) glasses, Xreal, was one of the first to release a viable pair to the consumer market.
Xreal’s Ralph Jodice told Sky News “one of our biggest engineering challenges is shrinking powerful augmented reality technology into a form factor that looks and feels like everyday sunglasses”.
Xreal’s specs can display images on the lenses like something out of a sci-fi movie – allowing the wearer to connect most USB-C compatible devices such as phones, laptops and handheld consoles to an IMAX-sized screen anywhere they go.
Image: Pic: Xreal
Experts at The Metaverse Society suggest prices of these wearable devices could be lowered by shifting the burden of computing from the headset to a mobile phone or computer, whose battery and processor would power the glasses via a cable.
However, despite the daunting challenge, companies are doubling down on research and making leaps in the area.
Social media giant Meta is also vying for dominance in the miniature market.
Image: Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses are shown off at the annual British Educational Training and Technology conference. Pic: PA
Meta’s Ray-Ban sunglasses (to which they recently added an Oakley range), cannot project images on the lenses like the pair from Xreal – instead they can capture photos, footage and sound. When connected to a smartphone they can even use your phone’s 5G connection to ask Meta’s AI what you’re looking at, and ask how to save a particular type of houseplant for example.
Gareth Sutcliffe, a tech and media analyst at Enders Analysis, tells Sky News wearables “are a green field opportunity for Meta and Google” to capture a market of “hundreds of millions of users if these devices sell at similar rates to mobile phones”.
Li-Chen Miller, Meta’s vice president of product and wearables, recently said: “You’d be hard-pressed to find a more interesting engineering problem in the company than the one that’s at the intersection of these two dynamics, building glasses [with onboard technology] that people are comfortable wearing on their faces for extended periods of time … and willing to wear them around friends, family, and others nearby.”
Mr Sutcliffe points out that “Meta’s R&D spend on wearables looks extraordinary in the context of limited sales now, but should the category explode in popularity, it will be seen as a great strategic bet.”
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s long-term aim is to combine the abilities of both Xreal and the Ray-Bans into a fully functioning pair of smartglasses, capable of capturing content, as well as display graphics onscreen.
However, despite recently showcasing a prototype model, the company was at pains to point out that it was still far from ready for the consumer market.
This race is a marathon not a sprint – or as Sutcliffe tells Sky News “a decade-long slog” – but 17 years after the release of the first iPhone, people are beginning to wonder what will replace it – and it could well be a pair of glasses.