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The world’s largest economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, according to the first official estimate which has raised fears of recession ahead.

Growth was measured at an annualised rate of 1.1% between January and March, the Commerce Department said.

Economists had been expecting a figure of 2%.

The slump followed growth of 2.6%, by the same measure, during the final three months of 2023.

The growth was mainly explained by consumer spending holding up, probably due to a low unemployment rate, as the aggressive pace of interest rate rises to tame inflation hit other areas, such as the housing market, harder.

The data also pointed to a big reduction in business inventories – behaviour that is typically seen in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Economists are split on the prospect of recession being declared.

The definition of a technical recession across most of the world is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington
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The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5% and is expected to hike again next month

By that measure, the US economy would have been in recession during the first half of last year.

But the country defines such a contraction differently. It is determined by a committee of experts.

The US economy’s low jobless rate largely prevented a recession being declared last year but conditions are darkening for 2023.

Many economists say the cumulative impact of the Fed Reserve’s rate hikes has yet to be fully felt while the pace of hiring is slowing.

Many banks, which are charging higher interest rates as a result, have also muddied the waters due to a tightening of lending standards since the failure last month of two major banks – Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

There are signs the crisis of confidence is not over yet as First Republic, a major regional lender, has seen a fresh run on its share price this week taking it to fresh lows.

It was effectively rescued last month by a $30bn cash injection from 11 major peers and revealed on Tuesday that $100bn had been withdrawn by depositors during the frenzy to grip the sector.

It has been reported that the federal government is unwilling to engineer a rescue.

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March: ‘Our banking system is safe’

Another political challenge is also gaining traction.

The Republican-dominated House of Representatives has moved to pressure President Biden over a looming debt ceiling deadline by voting to raise the limit only in exchange for big spending cuts.

A default would plunge the US economy into chaos so it forces Mr Biden to negotiate with his political opponents.

Brian Klimke, investment director at Cetera Investment Management, said of the economic growth figures: “January was really the standout month and since then we’ve seen weakness in February and March, which has really been slowly dragging down the economy.

“If we’re looking to the future, data does seem to be continuing to weaken.

“The good news is we do think a recession could be mild.”

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Woman and three teenagers arrested over M&S, Co-op and Harrods cyber attacks

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Woman and three teenagers arrested over M&S, Co-op and Harrods cyber attacks

Four people have been arrested by police investigating cyber attacks targeting M&S, Co-op and Harrods.

A 20-year-old woman and two males, both aged 19, and a male aged 17, were detained in London and the West Midlands this morning as part of a National Crime Agency (NCA) operation.

They were arrested at their homes on suspicion of Computer Misuse Act offences, blackmail, money laundering and participating in the activities of an organised crime group.

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Electronic devices were seized from the suspects and are currently being analysed by forensic experts.

M&S halted online orders, and shelves were empty in shops after the cyber attack on the retailer earlier this year.

The initial hack into the retailer’s systems took place in April through “sophisticated impersonation” involving a third party.

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Disruption is expected to continue at the retailer until the end of this month.

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Mickey Carroll in May answered why M&S cyber attack was so bad.

The Co-op and Harrods were also subsequently targeted by hackers.

Paul Foster, head of the NCA’s National cybercrime unit described the arrests as a “significant step” in their investigation, which remains “one of the Agency’s highest priorities”.

He added: “…our work continues, alongside partners in the UK and overseas, to ensure those responsible are identified and brought to justice.”

The National Crime Agency is keen to “signal” to “future victims” the “importance of seeking support and engaging with law enforcement”, stating that “the NCA and policing are here to help”.

The NCA has also thanked M&S, Co-op and Harrods for their support in their investigations.

The arrests, which took place early on Thursday morning, were supported by officers from the West Midlands Regional Organised Crime Unit and the East Midlands Special Operations Unit.

Earlier this week, the chairman of M&S told MPs that the hack had been “traumatic” and like an “out-of-body experience”.

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Archie Norman, however, refused to be drawn on whether the retailer had paid any ransom.

“We are not discussing any of the details of our interaction with the threat actor, including this subject, but that subject is fully shared with the NCA,” he said.

It is estimated that the cyber attack will cost M&S up to £300m this year.

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Days after M&S was attacked, the Co-op was targeted and forced to shut down some internal systems.

Harrods was then hacked, and also had to shut some systems despite its website and shops continuing to operate.

Of those arrested, a 17-year-old British male and a 19-year-old Latvian male were from the West Midlands.

A 19-year-old man was from London and a 20-year-old woman from Staffordshire.

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US-listed Ulta Beauty swoops on high street chain Space NK

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US-listed Ulta Beauty swoops on high street chain Space NK

A New York-listed company with a valuation of more than $21bn is to snap up Space NK, the British high street beauty chain.

Sky News has learnt that Ulta Beauty, which operates close to 1,500 stores, is on the verge of a deal to buy Space NK from existing owner Manzanita Capital.

Ulta Beauty is understood to have registered an acquisition vehicle at Companies House in recent weeks.

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The exact price being paid by Ulta was unclear on Thursday morning, although one source said it was likely to be well in excess of £300m.

Manzanita Capital, a private investment firm, engaged bankers at Raymond James to oversee an auction in April 2024.

The firm has owned Space NK for more than 20 years.

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Manzanita has also owned the French perfume house Diptyque and Susanne Kaufmann, an Austrian luxury skincare brand.

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Founded in 1993 by Nicky Kinnaird, Space NK – which is named after her initials – trades from dozens of stores and employs more than 1,000 people.

It specialises in high-end skincare and cosmetics products.

Manzanita previously explored a sale of Space NK in 2018, hiring Goldman Sachs to handle a strategic review, but opted not to proceed with a deal.

None of Ulta, Manzanita, Space NK and Raymond James could be reached for comment.

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Royal Mail to scrap second-class post on Saturdays and some weekdays

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Royal Mail to scrap second-class post on Saturdays and some weekdays

Royal Mail is to be allowed to scrap Saturday second-class stamp deliveries, under a series of reforms proposed by the communications regulator.

From 28 July, Royal Mail will also be allowed to deliver second-class letters on alternate weekdays, Ofcom said.

The post will still be delivered within three working days of collection from Monday to Friday.

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The proposals had already been raised by Ofcom after a consultation was announced in 2024, and the scale back was proposed early this year.

Royal Mail had repeatedly failed to meet the so-called universal service obligation to deliver post within set periods of time.

Those delivery targets are now being revised downwards.

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Rather than having to have 93% of first-class mail delivered the next day, 90% will be legally allowed.

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The sale of Royal Mail was approved in December

The target for second-class mail deliveries will be lowered from 98.5% to arrive within three working days to 95%.

A review of stamp prices has also been announced by Ofcom amid concerns over affordability, with a consultation set to be launched next year.

It’s good news for Royal Mail and its new owner, the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky. Ofcom estimates the changes will bring savings of between £250m and £425m.

A welcome change?

Unsurprisingly, the company welcomed the announcement.

“It is good news for customers across the UK as it supports the delivery of a reliable, efficient and financially sustainable universal service,” said Martin Seidenberg, the group chief executive of Royal Mail’s parent company, International Distribution Services.

“It follows extensive consultation with thousands of people and businesses to ensure that the postal service better reflects their needs and the realities of how customers send and receive mail today.”

Citizens Advice, however, doubted whether services would improve as a result of the changes.

“Today, Ofcom missed a major opportunity to bring about meaningful change,” said Tom MacInnes, the director of policy at Citizens Advice.

“Pushing ahead with plans to slash services and relax delivery targets in the name of savings won’t automatically make letter deliveries more reliable or improve standards.”

Acknowledging long delays “where letters have taken weeks to arrive”, Ofcom said it set Royal Mail new enforceable targets so 99% of mail has to be delivered no more than two days late.

Changing habits

Less than a third of letters are sent now than 20 years ago, and it is forecast to fall to about a fifth of the letters previously sent.

According to Ofcom research, people want reliability and affordability more than speedy delivery.

Royal Mail has been loss-making in recent years as revenues fell.

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In response to Ofcom’s changes, a government spokesperson said: “The public expects a well-run postal service, with letters arriving on time across the country without it costing the earth. With the way people use postal services having changed, it’s right the regulator has looked at this.

“We now need Royal Mail to work with unions and posties to deliver a service that people expect, and this includes maintaining the principle of one price to send a letter anywhere in the UK”.

Ofcom said it has told Royal Mail to hold regular meetings with consumer bodies and industry groups to hear their experiences implementing the changes.

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