The world’s largest economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, according to the first official estimate which has raised fears of recession ahead.
Growth was measured at an annualised rate of 1.1% between January and March, the Commerce Department said.
Economists had been expecting a figure of 2%.
The slump followed growth of 2.6%, by the same measure, during the final three months of 2023.
The growth was mainly explained by consumer spending holding up, probably due to a low unemployment rate, as the aggressive pace of interest rate rises to tame inflation hit other areas, such as the housing market, harder.
The data also pointed to a big reduction in business inventories – behaviour that is typically seen in anticipation of an economic downturn.
Economists are split on the prospect of recession being declared.
The definition of a technical recession across most of the world is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Image: The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5% and is expected to hike again next month
By that measure, the US economy would have been in recession during the first half of last year.
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But the country defines such a contraction differently. It is determined by a committee of experts.
The US economy’s low jobless rate largely prevented a recession being declared last year but conditions are darkening for 2023.
Many economists say the cumulative impact of the Fed Reserve’s rate hikes has yet to be fully felt while the pace of hiring is slowing.
Many banks, which are charging higher interest rates as a result, have also muddied the waters due to a tightening of lending standards since the failure last month of two major banks – Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
There are signs the crisis of confidence is not over yet as First Republic, a major regional lender, has seen a fresh run on its share price this week taking it to fresh lows.
It was effectively rescued last month by a $30bn cash injection from 11 major peers and revealed on Tuesday that $100bn had been withdrawn by depositors during the frenzy to grip the sector.
It has been reported that the federal government is unwilling to engineer a rescue.
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3:26
March: ‘Our banking system is safe’
Another political challenge is also gaining traction.
The Republican-dominated House of Representatives has moved to pressure President Biden over a looming debt ceiling deadline by voting to raise the limit only in exchange for big spending cuts.
A default would plunge the US economy into chaos so it forces Mr Biden to negotiate with his political opponents.
Brian Klimke, investment director at Cetera Investment Management, said of the economic growth figures: “January was really the standout month and since then we’ve seen weakness in February and March, which has really been slowly dragging down the economy.
“If we’re looking to the future, data does seem to be continuing to weaken.
“The good news is we do think a recession could be mild.”
Customers of five water firms are facing higher than expected rises to their inflation-busting bills after the companies disputed limits imposed by the industry regulator.
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) was called in to review Ofwat’s determinations on what Anglian Water, Northumbrian Water, South East Water, Southern Water, and Wessex Water could charge customers from 2025-30.
The CMA’s panel said on Thursday: “The group has provisionally decided to allow 21% – an additional £556m in revenue – of the total £2.7bn the five firms requested.
“This extra funding is expected to result in an average increase of 3% in bills for customers of the disputing companies, which is in addition to the 24% increase for customers of these companies expected as part of Ofwat’s original determination.”
The decision showed that Wessex household and business customers faced the largest increase – on top of the rise agreed by Ofwat – of 5%, leaving their average annual bills at £622.
South East and Southern customers will see rises of 4% and 3% respectively while Anglian and Northumbrian’s are set to soak up the lowest percentage increase of just 1%.
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South East had sought the biggest increase – 18% on top of the 18% hike it had been granted over the five-year period.
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3:21
July: Water regulator Ofwat to be scrapped
The companies exercised their right to an appeal after Ofwat released its final determinations on what they could charge at the end of last year.
They essentially argued that they could not meet their regulatory requirements under the controls amid a rush to bolster crucial infrastructure including storm drains, water pipelines and storage capacity.
Crisis-hit Thames Water was initially among them but it later withdrew its objection pending the outcome of ongoing efforts to secure its financial future through a change of ownership.
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2:08
Higher bills ‘part of the cost’ of water reform
Chair of the CMA’s independent panel, Kirstin Baker, said: “We’ve found that water companies’ requests for significant bill increases, on top of those allowed by Ofwat, are largely unjustified.
“We understand the real pressure on household budgets and have worked to keep increases to a minimum, while still ensuring there is funding to deliver essential improvements at reasonable cost.”
Ofwat, which has faced industry criticism in the past for an emphasis on keeping bills low at the expense of investment, is set to be replaced by a new super regulator under plans confirmed in the summer.
It has faced outrage on many fronts, especially over sewage spills, and allowing rewards for failure.
Water Minister Emma Hardy said in response to the CMA’s decision: “I understand the public’s anger over bill rises – that’s why I expect every water company to offer proper support to anyone struggling to pay.
“We’ve made sure that investment cash goes into infrastructure upgrades, not bonuses, and we’re creating a tough new regulator to clean up our waterways and restore trust in the system.
“We are laser focused on helping ease the cost of living pressure on households: we’ve frozen fuel duty, raised the minimum wage and pensions and brought down mortgage rates – putting more money in people’s pockets.”
Britain is at the lowest risk of a winter power blackout than at any point in the last six years, the national electricity grid operator has said.
Not since the pre-pandemic winter of 2019-2020 has the risk been so low, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) said.
It’s thanks to increased battery capacity to store and deploy excess power from windfarms, and a new subsea electricity cable to Ireland that came on stream in April.
The margins between expected demand and supply are now roughly three gas power stations greater than last year, the NESO said.
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1:39
Renewables overtake coal for first time
It also comes as Britain and the world reached new records for green power.
For the first time, renewable energy produced more of the world’s electricity than coal in the first half of 2025, while in Britain, a record 54.5% of power came from renewables like solar and wind energy in the three months to June.
More renewable power can mean lower bills, as there’s less reliance on volatile oil and gas markets, which have remained elevated after the invasion of Ukraine and the Western attempt to wean off Russian fossil fuels.
“Renewables are lowering wholesale electricity prices by up to a quarter”, said Jess Ralston, an energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank.
In a recent winter, British coal plants were fired up to meet capacity constraints when cold weather increased demand, but still weather conditions meant lower supply, as the wind didn’t blow.
Those plants have since been decommissioned.
But it may not be all plain sailing…
There will, however, be some “tight” days, the NESO said.
On such occasions, the NESO will tell electricity suppliers to up their output.
The times Britain is most likely to experience supply constraints are in early December or mid-January, the grid operator said.
The NESO had been owned by National Grid, a public company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, but was acquired by the government for £630m in 2023.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the co-owner of Manchester United and head of Ineos, one of Europe’s largest chemical producers, has staged an “11th-hour intervention” in an effort to “save” the chemical industry.
Sir Jim has called on European legislators to reduce price pressures on chemical businesses, or there “won’t be a chemical industry left to save”.
“There’s, in my view, not a great deal of time left before we see a catastrophic decline in the chemical industry in Europe”, he said.
The “biggest problem” facing businesses is gas and electricity costs, with the EU needing to be “more reactive” on tariffs to protect competition, Sir Jim added.
Prices should be eased on chemical companies by reducing taxes, regulatory burdens, and bringing back free polluting permits, the Ineos chairman and chief executive said.
It comes as his company, Europe’s biggest producer of some chemicals and one of the world’s largest chemical firms, announced the loss of 60 jobs at its acetyls factory in Hull earlier this week.
Cheap imports from China were said to be behind the closure, as international competition facing lower costs has hit the sector.
What could happen?
Now is a “moment of reckoning” for Europe’s chemicals industry, which is “at a tipping point and can only be saved through urgent action”, Sir Jim said.
European chemical sector output declined significantly due to reduced price competitiveness from high energy and regulatory costs, according to research funded by Ineos and carried out by economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.
The report said the continent’s policymakers face a “critical” decision between acting now to safeguard “this vital strategic industry or risk its irreversible decline”.
As many as 1.2 million people are directly employed by chemical businesses, with millions more supported in the supply chain and through staff spending wages, the Oxford Economics report read.
Average investment by European chemical firms was half that of US counterparts (1.5%, compared to 3%), a trend which is projected to continue, the report added.