For some time now, the City has been doing some soul-searching over its future.
There was a lot of speculation around the time of Brexitthat, deprived of the “passport” that enabled UK-based firms to do business in the EU without having permission from each individual country regulator, there would be heavy job losses in the Square Mile and Canary Wharf as jobs haemorrhaged away to Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg, Dublin and Amsterdam.
That has failed to happen – and, in fact, some 45,000 more people are employed in the City and the Wharf than before the coronaviruspandemic.
More recently, though, there has been a lot of discussion about the attractiveness of the UK stock market.
The FTSE 100 has for some time been more cheaply rated than some of its global peers, not only the main US index, the S&P 500, but also some continental European peers such as the DAX 40 and CAC 40.
That has been accompanied by a trickle of bad news on individual listings.
The chip designer Arm Holdings, a flagship of the UK tech sector, resisted UK government entreaties to pursue a secondary stock market listing in London as it opted to list on the Nasdaq instead.
Image: Arm snubbed London despite high level lobbying
Some of the commentary around all of these has created an impression that the lights were going out in offices across the Wharf and the Square Mile.
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So news that Deutsche Bank is buying the broking and corporate advisory firm Numis Securities for £410m will have come as a surprise to many.
Not least because the statement from Germany’s largest lender is so incredibly warm about the UK’s capital markets.
Deutsche said that Numis, which employs 344 people, would enable it to engage more deeply with corporate clients in the UK.
It added: “The UK is the largest investment banking market in Europe and Deutsche Bank has been evaluating how to accelerate the growth of its business in the UK.
“Numis is a diversified investment bank with a leading UK franchise and a long history of successfully delivering superior client service and growth and therefore represents a compelling strategic fit.”
It is a statement that reads like a huge vote of confidence not only in Numis, its management and its employees, but also in the broader UK financial services sector and the City in particular.
That can particularly be argued in view of Deutsche’s stated aim of becoming a so-called “house bank” – one which is focused on serving German businesses overseas or overseas businesses trading in Germany.
Image: Thousands more work in the City than before the COVID-19 pandemic
Encouraging turn of events
Deutsche appears to be preparing for either an uptick in British investment in its homeland or of further German investment in the UK.
It is an encouraging turn of events.
Let’s also be clear, though, that Deutsche is getting a bargain.
The 350p-a-share take-out price may well represent a 72% premium to the closing price on Thursday evening and a 60% premium to the average price at which Numis shares have traded over the last three months, but it is still only pitched at where shares of Numis were changing hands just 15 months ago.
What has happened since then, of course, is that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraineand the global economy has been rocked by surging inflation as a consequence.
The way central banks around the world have been forced to respond by rapidly raising interest rates has led growth to slow everywhere and has slowed the volume of stock market flotations and mergers and acquisitions on which companies like Numis rely to generate fees.
Numis saw its revenues fall by one-third last year – so some sceptics may well view this as a distress sale.
Numis, founded in 1989 by the entrepreneur Oliver Hemsley, is far from being alone in this respect.
This deal comes barely a month after two smaller broking and advisory firms, FinnCap and Cenkos Securities, announced they were tying the knot.
Latest reflection of ‘bombed-out valuations’
It is possible that there will be more consolidation after today and, to that end, it is worth noting that shares of Peel Hunt, a rival to Numis in particular, shot up 10% on the news.
And bear in mind also that a number of UK mid-cap companies – ironically the sort of businesses Numis and Peel Hunt advise – have recently agreed to takeovers or have been approached by would-be buyers.
They include John Wood Group, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Dignity, Network International and Hyve Group and the interest stems partly because these companies are comparatively cheap.
So, while this takeover does feel like a vote of confidence in the City, it is also the latest reflection of the bombed-out valuations on which some UK-listed stocks have been trading.
A former Bank of England chief economist has told Sky News that “repeated mistakes” by the government have been “sucking all life” from the economy ahead of the budget.
Andy Haldane said the country had to find a new way of treating the build-up to the annual fiscal event, as budget rumour and speculation – initiated in part by ministers and via leaks – had fed acts of self-harm for the past two years.
“It’s been a bad hand played, in truth, pretty poorly,” he said of the chancellor’s stewardship during his appearance on Mornings with Ridge and Frost.
“So mistakes have been made and repeated mistakes. And the worst of that, I would say, is it’s repeated mistakes.”
The build up to this budget, and Rachel Reeves‘s first speech last October, have each been dominated by talk of crisis for the public finances.
Mr Haldane told Sophy Ridge: “The black hole narrative that you and I discussed a year ago, sucking all life or energy and light from the economy, has been a mistake repeated this time as well.
“So not enough has been done to give growth a chance to create that stability. It’s only 16 months since Keir Starmer said I want to tread more lightly on our lives. That has singularly not happened. That speculation is proof positive of that.”
Mr Haldane, who served on the Bank’s rate-setting committee for seven years, was speaking after official figures last week showed a bigger than expected climb in the UK’s unemployment rate to 5% – a level not seen since the COVID pandemic.
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Why is the economy flatlining?
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also reported weaker than forecast economic growth during the third quarter of the year, slowing to 0.1%.
He argued there was a clear link between the data and the looming budget, which takes place next week.
“If you speak to businesses, speak to consumers, their fearfulness about where the axe will fall is causing them, not unreasonably, to save rather than spend, to not put their balance sheet to work and that has taken the legs from beneath growth in the economy,” he said.
Asked if that was the government’s fault or inevitable, he replied: “The process has become far too elongated and far too leaky, to be honest.
“You know, we have this pretty much daily speculation about the next tax rise… we need to re-engineer that process to either make it watertight, like the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions or a genuinely open consultation.
“Right now, we have this halfway house of leaks and speculation which serves absolutely no one. Least of all the economy.”
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The cobbled streets of Newport in Middlesbrough survive from the Victorian era.
The staggering levels of child poverty here also feel like they belong in a different time.
Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty.
Image: Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty
The measure is defined by the Child Poverty Action Group as a household with an income less than 60% of the national average.
More than half of children across the whole of the constituency of Middlesbrough and Thornaby East are growing up in poverty.
As a long-awaited new strategy on child poverty is expected from the government, much of the focus on tackling the problem has been placed on lifting the two-child cap on benefits for families.
Researchers say there is direct link between areas with the highest rates of child poverty and those with the highest proportion of children affected by that two-child cap.
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Image: The two-child benefit cap means Gemma Grafton and Lee Stevenson receive no additional universal credit for three-month-old Ivie
Mother-of-three Gemma Grafton said: “Maybe if families do have more than two children, give them that little bit of extra help because it would make a difference.”
Three months ago, she and partner Lee welcomed baby Ivie into the world. With two daughters already, the cap means they receive no additional universal credit.
“You don’t seem to have enough money some months to cover the basics,” said Lee.
“Having to tell the kids to take it easy, that’s not nice, when they’re just wanting to help themselves to get what they want and we’ve got to say ‘Try and calm down on what you’re eating’ because we haven’t got the money to go and get shopping in,” added Gemma.
Image: Katrina Morley, of Dormanstown Primary Academy, says lack of sleep affects concentration
Image: Tracey Godfrey-Harrison says parents ‘are crying that they’re failing’
The couple had to resort to paying half of the rent one month, something they say is stressful and puts their home at risk.
Those who work in the area of child poverty say they are engaged in a battle with child exploitation gangs who will happily step in and offer children a lucrative life of crime.
“Parents are crying that they’re failing because they can’t provide for their children,” said Tracey Godfrey-Harrison, project manager at the Middlesbrough Food Bank.
“In today’s society, it’s disgraceful that anyone should have to cry because they don’t have enough.”
In the shadow of a former steelworks, Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the economic collapse that followed.
The school works with charities and businesses to increase opportunities for pupils now and in the future.
Katrina Morley, the academy’s chief executive, said: “A child who hasn’t been able to sleep properly can’t concentrate. They’re tired. We know that the brain doesn’t work in the same way. A child who is hungry can’t access the whole of life.
“When you face hardship, it affects not just your physiology but your emotional sense, your brain development, your sense of worth. They don’t get today back and their tomorrow is our tomorrow.”
Image: Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the closure of a steel plant
Image: Barney’s Baby Bank founder Debbie Smith says local people ‘are struggling with food’
The school’s year six pupils see the value of things like the on-site farm shop for families in need.
They are open about their own worries, too.
Bonnie, 10, said: “I think that’s very important because it ensures all the people in our community have options if they’re struggling.
“It can be life-changing for families in poverty or who have a disadvantage in life because they don’t have enough money and they’re really struggling to get their necessities.”
Mark, also 10, said: “I worry about if we have nowhere to live and if we haven’t got enough money to pay for our home. But at least we have our family.”
They also see the homelessness in the area as the impact of poverty. “I think it actually happens more often than most people think,” said Leo, “because near the town, there’s people on the streets and they have nowhere to go.”
The school is one of many calling for the lifting of the two-child cap.
The need for life’s essentials has prompted more than 50 families to register for help at Barney’s Baby Bank in the last 11 months. Nappies, wipes, clothing, shoes, toys, are a lifeline for those who call in.
Founder Debbie Smith said local people “are struggling with food. They’re obviously struggling to clothe their babies as well. It’s low wages, high unemployment, job insecurity and that two-child benefit cap”.
“Middlesbrough does feel ignored,” she added.
A government spokesperson said: “Every child, no matter their background, deserves the best start in life. That’s why our Child Poverty Taskforce will publish an ambitious strategy to tackle the structural and root causes of child poverty.
“We are investing £500m in children’s development through the rollout of Best Start Family Hubs, extending free school meals and ensuring the poorest don’t go hungry in the holidays through a new £1bn crisis support package.”
But what is the message to those making the decisions from the North East?
“Come and do my job for a week and see the need and the desperation the people are in,” said Ms Godfrey-Harrison. “There needs to be more done for people in Middlesbrough.”
The restructuring firm drafted in to advise Sir Jim Ratcliffe on a radical cost-cutting programme at Manchester United Football Club will this week be put up for sale with a £900m price tag.
Sky News has learnt that advisers to HIG Europe, the majority shareholder in Interpath Advisory, will on Monday begin circulating information about the business to potential buyers.
City insiders said on Sunday that HIG had received a large volume of inbound enquiries from prospective suitors since it emerged that it was in the process of appointing bankers at Moelis to handle an auction.
Blackstone, Bridgepoint, Onex, PAI Partners and Permira are among the buyout firms expected to show an interest in buying Interpath, according to banking sources.
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Interpath was spun out of KPMG UK in 2021 in a deal triggered by the changing regulatory climate in the audit profession.
Growing concerns over conflicts of interest between accountancy giants’ audit and consulting arms had been exacerbated by the collapse of companies such as BHS and Carillion, prompting a number of disposals by ‘big four’ firms.
Interpath has advised on a string of prominent restructuring and cost-saving mandates for clients, including acting as administrator to the UK and Ireland subsidiaries of Claire’s, the accessories retailer which collapsed during the summer.
Sources said that Interpath had doubled its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation since HIG Europe acquired the business four-and-a-half years ago.
It is also said to be on track to record a 20% increase in annual revenues in the current financial year.
A sale of Interpath is expected to be agreed during the first quarter of 2026.