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For some time now, the City has been doing some soul-searching over its future.

There was a lot of speculation around the time of Brexit that, deprived of the “passport” that enabled UK-based firms to do business in the EU without having permission from each individual country regulator, there would be heavy job losses in the Square Mile and Canary Wharf as jobs haemorrhaged away to Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg, Dublin and Amsterdam.

That has failed to happen – and, in fact, some 45,000 more people are employed in the City and the Wharf than before the coronavirus pandemic.

More recently, though, there has been a lot of discussion about the attractiveness of the UK stock market.

The FTSE 100 has for some time been more cheaply rated than some of its global peers, not only the main US index, the S&P 500, but also some continental European peers such as the DAX 40 and CAC 40.

That has been accompanied by a trickle of bad news on individual listings.

The chip designer Arm Holdings, a flagship of the UK tech sector, resisted UK government entreaties to pursue a secondary stock market listing in London as it opted to list on the Nasdaq instead.

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Arm snubbed London despite high level lobbying

Then CRH, the owner of Tarmac and the world’s biggest building materials company, announced it was moving its main listing from London to New York and Flutter Entertainment, the owner of gaming businesses including Paddy Power and Betfair, indicated it would be doing the same.

Some of the commentary around all of these has created an impression that the lights were going out in offices across the Wharf and the Square Mile.

So news that Deutsche Bank is buying the broking and corporate advisory firm Numis Securities for £410m will have come as a surprise to many.

Not least because the statement from Germany’s largest lender is so incredibly warm about the UK’s capital markets.

Deutsche said that Numis, which employs 344 people, would enable it to engage more deeply with corporate clients in the UK.

It added: “The UK is the largest investment banking market in Europe and Deutsche Bank has been evaluating how to accelerate the growth of its business in the UK.

“Numis is a diversified investment bank with a leading UK franchise and a long history of successfully delivering superior client service and growth and therefore represents a compelling strategic fit.”

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It is a statement that reads like a huge vote of confidence not only in Numis, its management and its employees, but also in the broader UK financial services sector and the City in particular.

That can particularly be argued in view of Deutsche’s stated aim of becoming a so-called “house bank” – one which is focused on serving German businesses overseas or overseas businesses trading in Germany.

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Thousands more work in the City than before the COVID-19 pandemic

Encouraging turn of events

Deutsche appears to be preparing for either an uptick in British investment in its homeland or of further German investment in the UK.

It is an encouraging turn of events.

Let’s also be clear, though, that Deutsche is getting a bargain.

The 350p-a-share take-out price may well represent a 72% premium to the closing price on Thursday evening and a 60% premium to the average price at which Numis shares have traded over the last three months, but it is still only pitched at where shares of Numis were changing hands just 15 months ago.

What has happened since then, of course, is that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and the global economy has been rocked by surging inflation as a consequence.

The way central banks around the world have been forced to respond by rapidly raising interest rates has led growth to slow everywhere and has slowed the volume of stock market flotations and mergers and acquisitions on which companies like Numis rely to generate fees.

That was particularly the case in the UK due to the extra layer of uncertainty created by the mini-budget in September last year.

Numis saw its revenues fall by one-third last year – so some sceptics may well view this as a distress sale.

Numis, founded in 1989 by the entrepreneur Oliver Hemsley, is far from being alone in this respect.

This deal comes barely a month after two smaller broking and advisory firms, FinnCap and Cenkos Securities, announced they were tying the knot.

Latest reflection of ‘bombed-out valuations’

It is possible that there will be more consolidation after today and, to that end, it is worth noting that shares of Peel Hunt, a rival to Numis in particular, shot up 10% on the news.

And bear in mind also that a number of UK mid-cap companies – ironically the sort of businesses Numis and Peel Hunt advise – have recently agreed to takeovers or have been approached by would-be buyers.

They include John Wood Group, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Dignity, Network International and Hyve Group and the interest stems partly because these companies are comparatively cheap.

So, while this takeover does feel like a vote of confidence in the City, it is also the latest reflection of the bombed-out valuations on which some UK-listed stocks have been trading.

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It’s now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

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It's now almost impossible to work your way to riches, says report into growing wealth gap

Britain’s wealth gap is growing and it’s now practically impossible for a typical worker to save enough to become rich, according to a report.

Analysis by The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, found it would take average earners 52 years to accrue savings that would take them from the middle to the top of wealth distribution.

The total needed would be around £1.3m, and assumes they save almost all of their income.

Wealth gaps are “entrenched”, it said, meaning who your parents are – and what assets they may have – is becoming more important to your living standards than how hard you work.

While the UK’s wealth has “expanded dramatically over recent decades”, it’s been mainly fuelled by periods of low interest rates and increases in asset worth – not wage growth or buying new property.

Citing figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Wealth And Assets Survey, the think tank found household wealth reached £17trn in 2020-22, with £5.5trn (32%) held in property and £8.2trn (48%) in pensions.

The report said: “As a result, Britain’s wealth reached a new peak of nearly 7.5 times GDP by 2020-22, up from around three times GDP in the mid-1980s.

“Yet, despite this remarkable increase in the overall stock of wealth, relative wealth inequality – measured by the share of wealth held by the richest households – has remained broadly stable since the 1980s, with the richest tenth of households consistently owning around half of all wealth.”

According to the think tank, this trend has worsened intergenerational inequality.

It said the wealth gap between people in their early 30s and people in their early 60s has more than doubled between 2006-08 and 2020-22 – from £135,000 to £310,000, in real cash terms.

Regional inequality remains an issue, with median average wealth per adult higher in London and the South East.

Could wealth tax be the answer?

The report comes seven weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, having batted away calls earlier this year for a wealth tax.

Former Labour leader Lord Kinnock is among those to have called for one, in an interview with Sky News.

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Options for wealth tax

But speaking to Bloomberg last month, Ms Reeves said: “We already have taxes on wealthy people – I don’t think we need a standalone wealth tax.”

Previous government policies targeting Britain’s richest, notably a move to grab billions from non-doms, has led to concerns about an exodus of wealth. The prime minister has denied too many are leaving the capital.

Molly Broome, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said any wealth taxes would not just be paid by the country’s richest citizens.

She said: “With property and pensions now representing 80% of the growing bulk of household wealth, we need to be honest that higher wealth taxes are likely to fall on pensioners, southern homeowners or their families, rather than just being paid by the super-rich.”

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Millions of people could each get hundreds of pounds in compensation over car loan mis-selling

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Millions of people could each get hundreds of pounds in compensation over car loan mis-selling

Up to 14.2 million people could each receive an average of £700 in compensation due to car loan mis-selling, the financial services regulator has said.

Nearly half (44%) of all car loan agreements made between April 2007 and November 2024 could be eligible for payouts, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said.

Those eligible for the compensation will have had a loan where the broker received commission from a lender.

Lenders broke the law by not sharing this fact with consumers, the FCA said, and customers lost out on better deals and sometimes paid more.

A scheme is seen by the FCA as the best outcome for consumers and lenders, as it avoids the courts and the Financial Ombudsman Service, therefore minimising delay, uncertainty and administration costs.

The scheme will be funded by the dozens of lenders involved in the loans, and cost about £8.2bn, on the lower end of expectations, which had been expected to reach as much as £18bn.

The figure was reached by estimating that 85% of eligible applicants will take part in the scheme.

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What if you think you’re eligible?

Anyone who believes they have been impacted should contact their lender and has a year to do so. Compensation will begin to be paid in 2026, with an exact timeline yet to be worked out.

The FCA said it would move “as quickly as we can”.

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Payouts due after motor finance scandal

People who have already complained do not need to take action. Complaints about approximately four million loan agreements have already been received.

There’s no need to contact a solicitor or claims management firm, the FCA said, as it aimed for the scheme to be as easy as possible.

A lender won’t have to pay, however, if it can prove the customer could not have got cover anywhere else.

The number of people who will get a payout is not known. While there are 14.2 million agreements identified by the FCA, the same person may have taken out more than one loan over the 17-year period.

More expensive car loans?

Despite the fact many lenders have to contribute to redress, the FCA said the market will continue to function and pointed out the sector has grown in recent years and months.

In delivering compensation quickly, the FCA said it “can ensure that some of the trust and confidence in the market can be repaired”.

It could not, however, rule out that the scheme could mean fewer offers and more expensive car loans, but failure to introduce a scheme would have been worse.

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The FCA said: “We cannot rule out some modest impacts on product availability and prices, we estimate the cost of dealing with complaints would be several billion pounds higher in the absence of a redress scheme.

“In that scenario, impacts on access to motor finance and prices for consumers could be significantly higher with uncertainty continuing for many more years.”

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Starmer refuses to rule out tax rises as he flies business leaders to India

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Starmer refuses to rule out tax rises as he flies business leaders to India

Sir Keir Starmer has begun the first full-blown trade mission to India since Theresa May was prime minister, bringing 125 UK CEOs, entrepreneurs and university leaders to Mumbai.

The prime minister flew on a plane with dozens of Britain’s most prominent business people, including bosses from BA, Barclays, Standard Chartered, BT and Rolls-Royce, for the two-day trip designed to boost ties between the two countries.

Starmer will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday, five months after the UK signed the first trade deal with India since Brexit.

The agreement has yet to be implemented, with controversial plans to waive national insurance for workers employed by big Indian businesses sent to the UK still the subject of a forthcoming consultation.

Speaking to journalists on the plane on the way out, the prime minister said he was determined to boost ties between the two countries.

The trip has been arranged to coincide with the Conservative Party conference, with the first day of meetings coinciding with Kemi Badenoch’s speech to activists in Manchester.

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However, the business delegation is likely to use the trip to lobby the prime minister not to put more taxes on them in the November budget.

Sir Keir has already turned down the wish of some of the CEOs on the trip to increase the number of visas.

“The visa situation hasn’t changed with the free trade agreement, and therefore we didn’t open up more visas,” he said.

He told business that it wasn’t right to focus on visas, telling them: “The issue is not about visas. It’s about business-to-business engagement and investment and jobs and prosperity coming into the United Kingdom.”

Narendra Modi and Keir Starmer during a press conference in July. Pic: PA
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Narendra Modi and Keir Starmer during a press conference in July. Pic: PA

The prime minister sidestepped questions about Mr Modi’s support of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, whom he wished happy birthday on social media. US President Donald Trump has increased tariffs against India, alleging that Indian purchases of Russian oil are supporting the war in Ukraine.

Asked about Mr Modi wishing Mr Putin happy birthday, and whether he had leverage to talk to Mr Modi about his relationship with Russia, Sir Keir sidestepped the question.

“Just for the record, I haven’t… sent birthday congratulations to Putin, nor am I going to do so,” he said. “I don’t suppose that comes as a surprise. In relation to energy, and clamping down on Russian energy, our focus as the UK, and we’ve been leading on this, is on the shadow fleet, because we think that’s the most effective way. We’ve been one of the lead countries in relation to the shadow fleet, working with other countries.”

Sir Keir refused to give business leaders any comfort about the budget and tax hikes, despite saying in his conference speech he recognised the last budget had an impact.

“What I acknowledged in my conference and I’ve acknowledged a number of times now, is we asked a lot of business in the last budget. It’s important that I acknowledge that, and I also said that that had helped us with growth and stabilising the economy,” he added. “I’m not going to make any comment about the forthcoming budget, as you would expect; no prime minister or chancellor ever does.”

Asked if too many wealthy people were leaving London, he said: “No. We keep a careful eye on the figures, as you would expect.

“The measures that we took at the last budget are bringing a considerable amount of revenue into the government which is being used to fix things like the NHS. We keep a careful eye on the figures.”

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