For some time now, the City has been doing some soul-searching over its future.
There was a lot of speculation around the time of Brexitthat, deprived of the “passport” that enabled UK-based firms to do business in the EU without having permission from each individual country regulator, there would be heavy job losses in the Square Mile and Canary Wharf as jobs haemorrhaged away to Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg, Dublin and Amsterdam.
That has failed to happen – and, in fact, some 45,000 more people are employed in the City and the Wharf than before the coronaviruspandemic.
More recently, though, there has been a lot of discussion about the attractiveness of the UK stock market.
The FTSE 100 has for some time been more cheaply rated than some of its global peers, not only the main US index, the S&P 500, but also some continental European peers such as the DAX 40 and CAC 40.
That has been accompanied by a trickle of bad news on individual listings.
The chip designer Arm Holdings, a flagship of the UK tech sector, resisted UK government entreaties to pursue a secondary stock market listing in London as it opted to list on the Nasdaq instead.
Image: Arm snubbed London despite high level lobbying
Some of the commentary around all of these has created an impression that the lights were going out in offices across the Wharf and the Square Mile.
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So news that Deutsche Bank is buying the broking and corporate advisory firm Numis Securities for £410m will have come as a surprise to many.
Not least because the statement from Germany’s largest lender is so incredibly warm about the UK’s capital markets.
Deutsche said that Numis, which employs 344 people, would enable it to engage more deeply with corporate clients in the UK.
It added: “The UK is the largest investment banking market in Europe and Deutsche Bank has been evaluating how to accelerate the growth of its business in the UK.
“Numis is a diversified investment bank with a leading UK franchise and a long history of successfully delivering superior client service and growth and therefore represents a compelling strategic fit.”
It is a statement that reads like a huge vote of confidence not only in Numis, its management and its employees, but also in the broader UK financial services sector and the City in particular.
That can particularly be argued in view of Deutsche’s stated aim of becoming a so-called “house bank” – one which is focused on serving German businesses overseas or overseas businesses trading in Germany.
Image: Thousands more work in the City than before the COVID-19 pandemic
Encouraging turn of events
Deutsche appears to be preparing for either an uptick in British investment in its homeland or of further German investment in the UK.
It is an encouraging turn of events.
Let’s also be clear, though, that Deutsche is getting a bargain.
The 350p-a-share take-out price may well represent a 72% premium to the closing price on Thursday evening and a 60% premium to the average price at which Numis shares have traded over the last three months, but it is still only pitched at where shares of Numis were changing hands just 15 months ago.
What has happened since then, of course, is that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraineand the global economy has been rocked by surging inflation as a consequence.
The way central banks around the world have been forced to respond by rapidly raising interest rates has led growth to slow everywhere and has slowed the volume of stock market flotations and mergers and acquisitions on which companies like Numis rely to generate fees.
Numis saw its revenues fall by one-third last year – so some sceptics may well view this as a distress sale.
Numis, founded in 1989 by the entrepreneur Oliver Hemsley, is far from being alone in this respect.
This deal comes barely a month after two smaller broking and advisory firms, FinnCap and Cenkos Securities, announced they were tying the knot.
Latest reflection of ‘bombed-out valuations’
It is possible that there will be more consolidation after today and, to that end, it is worth noting that shares of Peel Hunt, a rival to Numis in particular, shot up 10% on the news.
And bear in mind also that a number of UK mid-cap companies – ironically the sort of businesses Numis and Peel Hunt advise – have recently agreed to takeovers or have been approached by would-be buyers.
They include John Wood Group, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Dignity, Network International and Hyve Group and the interest stems partly because these companies are comparatively cheap.
So, while this takeover does feel like a vote of confidence in the City, it is also the latest reflection of the bombed-out valuations on which some UK-listed stocks have been trading.
The Bank of England sees trouble ahead for global financial markets if investors U-turn on the prospects for artificial intelligence (AI) ahead.
The Bank‘s Financial Policy Committee said in its latest update on the state of the financial system that there was also a risk of a market correction through intensifying worries about US central bank independence.
“The risk of a sharp market correction has increased,” it warned, while adding that the risk of “spillovers” to these shores from such a shock was “material”.
Fears have been growing that the AI-driven stock market rally in the United States is unsustainable, and there are signs that a growing number of investors are rushing to hedge against any correction.
This was seen early on Wednesday when the spot gold price surpassed the $4,000 per ounce level for the first time.
Analysts point to upward pressure from a global economic slowdown driven by the US trade war, the continuing US government shutdown and worries about the sustainability of US government debt.
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US government shuts down
The political crisis in France has also been cited as a reason for recent gold shifts.
Money has also left the US dollar since Donald Trump moved to place his supporters at the heart of the US central bank, repeatedly threatening to fire its chair for failing to cut interest rates to support the economy.
Jay Powell’s term at the Federal Reserve ends next spring but the White House, while moving to nominate his replacement, has already shifted the voting power and is looking to fire one rate-setter, Lisa Cook, for alleged mortgage fraud.
She is fighting that move in the courts.
Financial markets fear that monetary policy will no longer be independent of the federal government.
“A sudden or significant change in perceptions of Federal Reserve credibility could result in a sharp repricing of US dollar assets, including in US sovereign debt markets, with the potential for increased volatility, risk premia and global spillovers,” the Bank of England said.
British government borrowing costs are closely correlated with US Treasury yields and both are currently elevated, near multi-year highs in some cases.
It’s presenting Chancellor Rachel Reeves with a headache as she prepares the ground for November’s budget, with the higher yields reflecting investor concerns over high borrowing and debt levels.
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‘Is the Bank worried about recession risk?’
On AI, the Bank said that 30% of the US S&P 500’s valuation was made up by the five largest companies, the greatest concentration in 50 years.
Share valuations based on past earnings were the most stretched since the dotcom bubble 25 years ago, though looked less so based on investors’ expectations for future profits.
A recent report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 95% of businesses that had integrated AI into their operations had yet to see any return on their investment.
“This, when combined with increasing concentration within market indices, leaves markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic,” the statement said.
An extraordinary milestone was achieved overnight for the price of gold.
The spot gold price topped $4,000 an ounce for the first time on record – and futures data suggests no let up in its upwards momentum for the rest of 2025.
It was trading at $4,035 early on Wednesday morning.
It has risen steadily since Trump 2.0 began in January, when it stood at a level around $2,600.
Sky News was quick to report on the early reasons for a spike in the price when heavy outflows were witnessed at the Bank of England.
Gold has traditionally been seen as a safe haven for investors’ money in tough times.
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There has been plenty to worry about this year – not all of it down to Donald Trump.
Analysts say the surge during 2025 can be partly explained as a hedge against the US trade war and the resulting slowdown in the global economy, which has hit demand for many traditional growth-linked stocks and the dollar.
Wider economic and geopolitical uncertainty, such as the tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the sustainability of US government debt levels, have also been at play.
Over this week, the political crisis in France and the implications of the continuing US government shutdown have been driving forces.
But there is one other, crucial, factor that has entered the equation, particularly since the end of the summer.
Many analysts say that gold has become a collective hedge against the possible implosion of the AI-driven boom for technology stocks in the US.
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Nvidia CEO backs UK in AI race
Despite a few wobbles, there have been almost endless headlines around record values for such shares, with most investment seen as a big bet on the future rather than current earnings.
Around 35% of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 Index trades at more than 10 times sales, according to investment firm GQG.
AI leaders such as Nvidia and companies investing big in their capabilities see huge rewards ahead in terms of both productivity and profits.
But a recent report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 95% of businesses that had integrated AI into their operations had yet to see any return on their investment.
Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at the spread betting provider Pepperstone, said gold’s $4,000 level would test appetite but the outlook remained positive for now, given all the global risks still at play.
“Selling gold at this stage has become a high-risk endeavour for one simple reason, conviction.
“Institutions, central banks and retail investors alike now treat dips as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of exhaustion. One only needs to recall the $3,000 level just six months ago, reached amid the tariff headlines, to understand how sentiment has shifted.
“This collective behaviour has created a self-reinforcing cycle where every pause in momentum is met with renewed buying.
“Gold has evolved from a traditional hedge during uncertainty into what could be described as a conviction trade, an asset whose value transcends price, reflecting deeper doubts about policy credibility and the erratic course of fiscal decision-making.”
It all suggests there is good reason for momentum behind this gold rush and that more stock market investors could soon be running for them there hills.
Britain’s wealth gap is growing and it’s now practically impossible for a typical worker to save enough to become rich, according to a report.
Analysis by The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, found it would take average earners 52 years to accrue savings that would take them from the middle to the top of wealth distribution.
The total needed would be around £1.3m, and assumes they save almost all of their income.
Wealth gaps are “entrenched”, it said, meaning who your parents are – and what assets they may have – is becoming more important to your living standards than how hard you work.
While the UK’s wealth has “expanded dramatically over recent decades”, it’s been mainly fuelled by periods of low interest rates and increases in asset worth – not wage growth or buying new property.
Citing figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Wealth And Assets Survey, the think tank found household wealth reached £17trn in 2020-22, with £5.5trn (32%) held in property and £8.2trn (48%) in pensions.
The report said: “As a result, Britain’s wealth reached a new peak of nearly 7.5 times GDP by 2020-22, up from around three times GDP in the mid-1980s.
“Yet, despite this remarkable increase in the overall stock of wealth, relative wealth inequality – measured by the share of wealth held by the richest households – has remained broadly stable since the 1980s, with the richest tenth of households consistently owning around half of all wealth.”
According to the think tank, this trend has worsened intergenerational inequality.
It said the wealth gap between people in their early 30s and people in their early 60s has more than doubled between 2006-08 and 2020-22 – from £135,000 to £310,000, in real cash terms.
Regional inequality remains an issue, with median average wealth per adult higher in London and the South East.
Could wealth tax be the answer?
The report comes seven weeks before Rachel Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November, having batted away calls earlier this year for a wealth tax.
Molly Broome, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said any wealth taxes would not just be paid by the country’s richest citizens.
She said: “With property and pensions now representing 80% of the growing bulk of household wealth, we need to be honest that higher wealth taxes are likely to fall on pensioners, southern homeowners or their families, rather than just being paid by the super-rich.”