How one draft set the Stars up for now and the future
Front offices throughout the NHL are willing to invest what amounts to a miniature fortune on travel so their amateur scouting staffs can find the players they believe can help them have a brighter future.
And that’s not even including additional scouting costs such as salaries or the investment that comes with eventually trying to develop those draft picks into NHL players.
Every front office knows there’s an art to drafting and developing. But to draft and develop the type of players who could potentially become franchise cornerstones? That can be a painstaking process that might take several years to master, with the sobering realization it might never happen.
Now you’re starting to understand what made the 2017 NHL draft a defining moment for the Dallas Stars. They didn’t find just one franchise player. They found a franchise defenseman, a franchise goaltender and a franchise forward in one draft when they used their first three picks to select defenseman Miro Heiskanen, goaltender Jake Oettinger and wing Jason Robertson.
“We’re hoping we can get one or two guys in each draft that can just play for us and be serviceable and good players,” one NHL amateur scout who works for another team told ESPN. “They got a No. 1 defenseman who can run a power play, a starting goaltender and a top-six forward in one draft. Even if they didn’t get Oettinger and just got Heiskanen and Robertson, that’s still a rock-star draft. There is not a word to describe three guys of that caliber. It’s scary good.”
Building through the draft and developing that talent is how teams win in the NHL. The Tampa Bay Lightning used five drafts in the span of seven years to acquire cornerstones Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Colorado Avalanche used four drafts over seven years to select cornerstones Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar.
But there’s more to it. The Lightning still had to develop the talent they drafted and the undrafted free agents they procured to support what they had beyond their cornerstones. The Avs parlayed players who were once thought to be cornerstones in their long-term plans and traded them to eventually strengthen their core.
The end result: The Lightning and Avalanche combined to win the past three Stanley Cups and serve as a blueprint for others to emulate.
“When we got into the [flat salary] cap world, the parity world, if you make a mistake signing a free agent, you don’t get out of that,” Stars general manager Jim Nill said. “The best way to stay out of that? It’s the draft and developing young, homegrown players that can have success.”
In the 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys had their triplets in Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin and Emmitt Smith, who led them to three Super Bowls. Could it be possible that 30 years later, the Stars have their own version of a title-winning trio who might help bring a Cup or two to Big D? They’ll look to take a step in that direction with the opportunity to wrap up their first-round series with the Minnesota Wild in Game 6 on Friday night.
What the Stars did in order to refine Heiskanen, Oettinger and Robertson to reach this stage of their respective careers was a gradual process. And while they each showed continual flashes of promise, this season provided even more confirmation.
Heiskanen was already a top-pairing defenseman who could play in every situation. This season he broke through to score a career-high 73 points, which more than doubled his point total from the 2021-22 season.
Oettinger went from sharing the net to becoming a full-time No. 1 starter who was in the top seven in games started, saves, save percentage, goals-against average and shutouts. Robertson, who came into this season with 125 career points, improved to 109 points and his second straight 40-goal season.
Beyond their success in the 2017 draft, the Stars have quietly created one of the stronger farm-to-table approaches in the NHL. Their current iteration started in 2015 with center Roope Hintz. It has since continued to include center Ty Dellandrea, defenseman Thomas Harley and center Wyatt Johnston, with prospects such as Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven lined up to be next.
Exactly how did the Stars set themselves on such a strong course in such short order?
HOW THE STARS came away with a franchise-altering haul in 2017 actually can be traced to the 1990s and the Detroit Red Wings. Nill was hired at the start of the 1994-95 season by the Red Wings to serve as their director of player development before eventually becoming assistant GM.
A year later, the Red Wings hired Kitchener Rangers head coach/GM Joe McDonnell to be an amateur scouts before he was promoted to director of amateur scouting before the start of the 2003-04 season.
Nill was hired by the Stars before the 2013-14 season and he hired McDonnell to be Dallas’ director of amateur scouting.
Their time with the Red Wings was foundational for several reasons. At the time, the Red Wings were at the vanguard of scouting well before the salary cap made it en vogue. They had already established a pipeline in Europe in addition to North America. That helped them draft a collection of prospects who reached the NHL, such as Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Jiri Fischer, Niklas Kronwall, Jiri Hudler, Valteri Filppula, Jimmy Howard and Johan Franzen, among many others.
Nill said he was “very fortunate” to be with the Red Wings at that time because of what he learned from Scotty Bowman, Jim Devellano and Ken Holland about the intricacies of both building a team and winning with them. Nill said what resonated with him is how the Red Wings’ management was able to build a bridge of internal talent that allowed the franchise to win four Stanley Cups while transitioning from those teams led by Steve Yzerman and Lidstrom to the group headlined by Datsyuk and Zetterberg.
“They did a great job of drafting and were one of the first teams that went to Europe and into Russia,” Nill said of the Red Wings. “They had a couple drafts similar to what we had in 2017 when they drafted Lidstrom and [Sergei] Federov. They knocked it dead too.”
But there is something to be said about the parts Nill and McDonnell played from the time they joined the franchise.
“The stuff McDonnell and Nill did in Detroit when McDonnell was running the amateur draft speaks for itself,” one NHL amateur scouting director told ESPN. “I would think the fact he left Detroit with Jim Nill speaks highly of his dedication. Not that I want to speak for Jim Nill, but I imagine knowing Joe well and the success he’s had identifying talent speaks highly in the world of hockey.”
Both the amateur scouting director and amateur scout who were interviewed by ESPN provided a composite look at what has made the Stars successful with their drafts.
The amateur scout said McDonnell and one of his most trusted scouts, Mark Leach, who also spent several years in the Red Wings organization, are known for being easy to speak with. That, in turn, can create the sort of environment that allows their scouts to potentially feel confident in expressing their observations, the amateur scout said.
“I get the sense the guys who are good in those positions listen really well,” the amateur scout said. “As the leader of an amateur department, if you have high stress, high anxiety and feel the pressure of making a pick, that feeds down to other guys. You don’t want to do anything for your staff that will make them not want to share something or give their opinions that may go against what is being said.”
The amateur scouting director said there are teams that look to draft a certain type of player and that the Stars have a defined idea of what they want. The scouting director said the past few drafts have shown the Stars targeted skilled forwards with offensive upside in Bourque and Johnston, the first-round picks in 2020 and 2021. They’ve also shown that size is something they seek in their defensemen, which was evidenced by taking the 6-foot-3 Harley in 2019 along with their first-round pick last year, Lian Bichsel, who is 6-5.
“Depending upon their strategy, they seem to be able to find talent. Especially later in the first round or with those early second-round picks,” the scouting director said. “They are able to find very good players.”
That’s the context for how the Stars are able to identify talent. They have people who have done it for decades and have built a staff with eight amateur scouts, European scouting director Kari Takko and McDonnell.
AS FOR HOW it all came together for the Stars in 2017? Nill admits there was some luck involved.
The Stars finished with the seventh-worst record in the NHL and had a 5.8% chance of winning the lottery, a 6.1% chance of getting the second pick and a 6.4% chance of picking third.
Having such a poor record opened the door for them to trade Patrick Eaves to the Anaheim Ducks for a conditional second-round pick. The condition for the Stars to get a first-round pick was that Eaves play in at least half the Ducks’ playoff games through the first two rounds.
The Stars entered the 2017 draft with the No. 3 pick from the lottery, Eaves meeting the conditions to flip that second-round pick into another first-round pick (No. 26 overall), while also having a high second-round pick (No. 39).
“We were sitting there during the draft lottery and when you move up from that spot to No. 3, that changes your whole mindset,” Nill said. “You are picking high in the first round and then pretty high in the second round. We got lucky with the lottery. You’re looking at a whole different group.”
The expectation was that centers Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going to be off the board when it came time for the Stars to pick third. Nill said Heiskanen was on the short list of three or four possibilities for the team to take when it was their turn. Heiskanen projected as a responsible two-way defenseman who could someday do everything required of a top-pairing option.
Nill said the Stars’ scouts watched Oettinger “all the time” when he played at the United States National Team Development Program. That gave the Stars confidence that Oettinger fit the archetype of a contemporary goaltender, an athletic puck-stopper who has size packaged in a 6-5 body. Plus, they knew they had to start thinking about the future with Ben Bishop getting older.
As for Robertson? Nill said they knew he had high-end offensive ability and the intelligence to go with that skill. But the question they kept coming back to was his skating and whether he could be a good enough skater in the NHL.
“Is he too weak and needs more strength? Is there a hitch? That’s where player development is so important,” Nill said. “In the end with Jason, we were looking for someone who could score and with the guys that were left, we were fortunate to get him. The next part after we drafted him was for him to work with our player development staff.”
HEISKANEN, OETTINGER AND ROBERTSON are also reminders of how developing the players comes with its own set of challenges.
Now the Stars’ director of player personnel, former NHL center Rich Peverley was the team’s director of player development for six seasons. Peverley explained that Heiskanen, Oettinger and Robertson are prime examples of how every player’s development path is different.
Peverley said Heiskanen, who debuted as a 19-year-old, actually could have played in the NHL at 18. But the front office wanted him to get an additional year of development and getting stronger and faster. They knew he was going to play in several international competitions either for the Finnish under-20 men’s national team or for the Finnish national team while logging heavy minutes for his club team, HIFK. It amounted to Heiskanen playing a combined 70-plus games for club and country.
The Stars knew Oettinger was close to being ready. He had the maturity and was physically ready to make the jump. But they wanted him to get more experience at a higher level while also spending time with coaches who could help hone his skills. That’s why they were patient in watching Oettinger spend three seasons at Boston University, where he compiled a 2.34 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage in more than 100 games.
Nill told ESPN this season that the pandemic significantly altered the Stars’ development plan for Oettinger. They wanted him to play more than 50 AHL games in 2019-20, but the changes brought on by COVID-19 meant the Stars used him as a third goalie in the bubble, which led to Oettinger becoming Dallas’ backup when Bishop got hurt.
“We were concerned. Are we getting ahead of course with him?” Nill said. “My job is to worry about today, tomorrow and 10 years down the road. … Was it better to have him come back and be a backup or have him play in the AHL?”
Robertson’s situation was also unique. As Nill said, the Stars wanted to address concerns about his skating. Peverley added that the team also worked with Robertson in developing an offseason training program and creating a nutrition plan.
“I think everyone has had a good hand in his development,” Peverley said. “He came from a different background in terms of a hockey background being from California. He didn’t know how to work out, how to train in the offseason and didn’t know how to follow the nutritional things we preached. That was something he bought in and was all-in because he wanted to play in the NHL.”
Robertson began the 2018-19 season with the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs before he was traded to the Niagara IceDogs. Jody Hull, who was the IceDogs’ associate coach when the team acquired Robertson, described how Peverley and the Stars were inclusive rather than invasive when it came to Robertson’s development.
Hull, now an associate coach with the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, said the key to development is that the NHL team and the team prospects are playing for share a common goal: They work together to make the player better.
They created a plan to address Robertson’s skating. One way they did that was to improve Robertson’s conditioning, which Hull said can be a contributing factor toward improving skating.
“Rich was awesome,” Hull said of Peverley. “He was up front and we talked about what we thought were deficiencies and areas Jason needed to improve. At the end of the day, what Dallas wants to see are the same things that will benefit the Niagara IceDogs in the same way. It was a hand-in-hand relationship.”
Both the IceDogs and Stars saw growth from Robertson, with him scoring 25 goals and 79 points in 38 games for Niagara. Between the Frontenacs and IceDogs, Robertson scored 48 goals and 117 points in his final OHL season.
He spent one season in the AHL, where he finished with 25 goals and 47 assists in 60 games before he was called up to Dallas for the 2020-21 season.
Robertson finished second in voting for the Calder Trophy, the award for the NHL’s best rookie.
“You have to establish trust and there has to be honesty there,” Peverley said. “I am a firm believer and have always been taught this. You can’t go in and impose your systems and way of playing on a junior player. You have to go with what the coaching staff is teaching. It’s about establishing pro habits because they all want to see the player be successful as a pro. It’s speaking the same language as coaches and management. If you do that, the players will have no confusion.”
FIVE GAMES INTO their first-round series against the Wild, the contributions made by the Stars’ latest crop of homegrown talent has been there for all to witness.
Heiskanen is averaging more than 29 minutes and had four points in the Stars’ 7-3 win to tie the series at 1-1. Oettinger has a 2.19 GAA, a .925 save percentage and provided a 27-save shutout for a huge Game 5 win. Robertson has six points, including a goal and assist in Game 5, while averaging almost 20 minutes in ice time.
Hintz broke out for a hat trick in Game 2 to cap a four-point night and has 11 points in five games. Johnston has only one point, but he’s operating as a second-line center and Natural Stat Trick’s data shows he leads Stars forwards in 5-on-5 ice time. Dellandrea is receiving third-line minutes and leads Stars forwards in short-handed ice time. Harley, who played only six regular-season games, has been featured in all five playoff games and is serving as a third-pairing defenseman.
That’s seven homegrown players who are all 26 or younger having an impact in the playoffs. And when you include older players such as captain Jamie Benn, who was drafted by the club in 2007, and forward Joel Kiviranta, an undrafted free agent the Stars signed and developed in the AHL for a season, it gives them 12 homegrown players on their active roster.
“People will say, ‘We draft who we want,’ and I say that’s hogwash. They care. These teams do care,” the amateur scout said. “Not saying Dallas doesn’t but I get the sense they have guys they like and they pick those guys who fit into what they are doing in Dallas.”
HONOLULU — Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani and his agent, Nez Balelo, moved to dismiss a lawsuit filed last month accusing them of causing a Hawaii real estate investor and broker to be fired from a $240 million luxury housing development on the Big Island’s Hapuna Coast.
Ohtani and Balelo were sued Aug. 8 in Hawaii Circuit Court for the First Circuit by developer Kevin J. Hayes Sr. and real estate broker Tomoko Matsumoto, West Point Investment Corp. and Hapuna Estates Property Owners, who accused them of “abuse of power” that allegedly resulted in tortious interference and unjust enrichment.
Hayes and Matsumoto had been dropped from the development deal by Kingsbarn Realty Capital, the joint venture’s majority owner.
In papers filed Sunday, lawyers for Ohtani and Balelo said Hayes and Matsumoto in 2023 acquired rights for a joint venture in which they owned a minority percentage to use Ohtani’s name, image and likeness under an endorsement agreement to market the venture’s real estate development at the Mauna Kea Resort. The lawyers said Ohtani was a “victim of NIL violations.”
“Unbeknownst to Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo, plaintiffs exploited Ohtani’s name and photograph to drum up traffic to a website that marketed plaintiffs’ own side project development,” the lawyers wrote. “They engaged in this self-dealing without authorization, and without paying Ohtani for that use, in a selfish and wrongful effort to take advantage of their proximity to the most famous baseball player in the world.”
The lawyers claimed Hayes and Matsumoto sued after “Balelo did his job and protected his client by expressing justifiable concern about this misuse and threatening to take legal action against this clear misappropriation.” They called Balelo’s actions “clearly protected speech “
In a statement issued after the suit was filed last month, Kingsbarn called the allegations “completely frivolous and without merit.”
Ohtani is a three-time MVP on the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
“Nez Balelo has always prioritized Shohei Ohtani’s best interests, including protecting his name, image, and likeness from unauthorized use,” a lawyer for Ohtani and Balelo, said in a statement. “This frivolous lawsuit is a desperate attempt by plaintiffs to distract from their myriad of failures and blatant misappropriation of Mr. Ohtani’s rights.”
Lawyers for Hayes and Matsumoto did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Bill Connelly
What’s the old Guy Fieri line from “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives”? “Slow down and take a look around”? College football’s superpower is its absolute enormity, and if you search, you’ll always find a wild game worth watching.
Some weeks, however, you don’t have to try very hard to find them. Week 3 of the 2025 season basically smacked us in the face with them.
Whether you considered Texas A&M-Notre Dame or Georgia-Tennessee the biggest game of the week, it didn’t matter — they both went down to the wire with quarterback heroics and special teams heartbreaks. And two of the sport’s wildest rivalries, Pitt-West Virginia and Ole Miss-Arkansas, both gave us classics too. Throw in a Division III Hail Mary and a pair of stunning HBCU endings, and just about the only thing we were missing Saturday was a late-night thriller.
After two straight wild weekends, 39 FBS teams remain unbeaten. Obviously some of those teams have more blemishes and weaknesses than others, but until you lose, you haven’t lost! SP+ projects an average of 0.95 of these teams reaching 12-0 — it might as well be your team!
All 39 of these teams are playoff contenders as long as their loss column zeros remain. As has become tradition at this point, let’s rank all the remaining unbeaten teams three weeks into the season.
Ranking all 39 unbeaten teams
SP+ and FPI rankings: second and first, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.4%
What the Ducks did in Week 3: def. Northwestern 34-14
It took Dan Lanning’s Ducks a little while to put Northwestern away early Saturday, primarily because their opponents were embarking on a series of lengthy (and eventually scoreless) drives. But they were never in danger, and they’ve spent most of three games in kick-butt-and-take-names mode.
SP+ and FPI rankings: third and second
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.5%
What the Buckeyes did in Week 3: def. Ohio, 37-9
Ohio is good enough that I expected the Bobcats to force the Buckeyes to put in a shift, but I can’t say I expected “one-score game with 22 minutes left.” Ohio State hit the gas and put this one to bed, but this team clearly hasn’t reached its final form yet.
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and seventh
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.2%
What the Nittany Lions did in Week 3: def. Villanova, 52-6
Penn State pulled a Penn State on Saturday, starting slowly against a lesser opponent before eventually steamrolling them. The Nittany Lions have yet to face a team ranked better than 112th in SP+, but that changes very soon: After a Week 4 bye, they’ll host Oregon in a loaded Week 5.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 20th and 15th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.6%
What the Aggies did in Week 3: def. No. 8 Notre Dame, 41-40
Even as someone who leans heavily on stats, I’m allowed to listen to my gut sometimes, and my gut has been telling me A&M is for real since the preseason. If I believed that before the Aggies’ late rally in South Bend on Saturday night, I’m certainly going to keep believing it afterward.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 10th and 11th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.3%
What the Hurricanes did in Week 3: def. South Florida, 49-12
Miami treated upstart USF as an elite team is supposed to. The Hurricanes’ defense was a bit more bend-don’t-break than I would like to see, but a ruthless offense rolled up 576 yards and didn’t allow the Bulls to ever feel as though they had a foot in the game.
SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and fourth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.5%
What the Bulldogs did in Week 3: def. No. 15 Tennessee, 44-41 (OT)
In their past three wins against power-conference opponents, Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs have had to go to overtime each time. Is that sustainable? No. Has Georgia shown signs of slippage over the past two seasons? Absolutely. Do I ever feel particularly good picking against them? Absolutely not.
SP+ and FPI rankings: fifth and eighth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 6.5%
What the Rebels did in Week 3: def. Arkansas, 41-35
Forced to face a prolific Arkansas team without their starting quarterback, the Rebels laced up their track shoes and won a wild one all the same. Trinidad Chambliss enjoyed an epic star turn, and after three tight losses kept Ole Miss out of the CFP last season, they’ve nabbed a pair of tight wins early in 2025.
8. USC (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: ninth and fifth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.3%
What the Trojans did in Week 3: def. Purdue, 33-17
The poll voters have been slow to trust USC this season. The computers? Not so much. The Trojans blew out two cupcakes to start the season, then survived a tricky, storm-delayed test at Purdue with defensive playmaking. That’s right! I said defensive playmaking! USC!
9. LSU (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 17th and 19th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Florida, 20-10
On one hand, they’re 3-0, and they’ve already beaten two teams ranked 31st or higher in SP+ (Clemson and Florida). On the other hand, the offense has been a painful disappointment, and the Tigers needed five interceptions to put away a 20-10 win over the Gators. Surviving and advancing is what’s important, but that will get harder if LSU can’t top 24 points.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 33rd and 27th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Seminoles did in Week 3: bye week
Metrics are programmed to avoid overreacting to small samples as much as possible, so last year’s 2-10 campaign is still pretty large in the rearview mirror for SP+ and FPI. The eyeballs, however, think the Noles are just dandy. That Week 6 matchup with Miami looks awfully intriguing, doesn’t it?
SP+ and FPI rankings: 11th and 12th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Louisiana, 52-10
Mizzou has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 12.6 points per game, and after Saturday’s steamrolling of Louisiana, the Tigers are averaging 302.3 rushing yards per game. Handle South Carolina as projected next week, and they should be unbeaten when Bama comes to town in Week 7.
SP+ and FPI rankings: seventh and 13th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Sooners did in Week 3: def. Temple, 42-3
The offense went into cruise control a hair early at Temple on Saturday, but the Sooners’ defense has allowed just 19 total points in three games. This is what a Brent Venables team was supposed to look like; now they have a chance to score another ranked win next week when Auburn comes to town.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 12th and 26th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.9%
What the Red Raiders did in Week 3: def. Oregon State, 45-14
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders have played just about the softest set of opponents in FBS. They’ve also beaten those soft opponents by a combined 174-35. That’s still pretty telling. Behren Morton is putting up Air Raid-style passing numbers, and the defense hasn’t allowed a non-garbage-time point. Hard to top that.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 16th and 23rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What the Illini did in Week 3: def. Western Michigan, 38-0
The offense took its time shifting into gear against WMU on Saturday, but the defense has allowed 22 points in three games. The next time you think something in your life feels impossible, just step back and realize that unbeaten Illinois is playing unbeaten Indiana this Saturday in an enormous game with playoff implications, and that the two teams are a combined 27-5 since the start of 2024. If that’s possible, anything is.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 13th and 16th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.0%
What the Hoosiers did in Week 3: def. Indiana State, 73-0
My favorite tidbit from the weekend: Not only did IU’s Omar Cooper Jr. go off for 10 catches and 207 yards against poor, outmatched Indiana State on Friday night, he also caught TD passes from two different Mendozas (Fernando and Alberto).
SP+ and FPI rankings: 27th and 21st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. No. 11 South Carolina, 31-7
Yes, the Commodores’ surprising blowout of the Gamecocks was impacted by an injury to South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers (which came from a hit deemed targeting). But Vandy was winning when Sellers got hurt and has outscored two power-conference opponents by a combined 65-7 in its past six quarters.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 38th and 33rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.4%
What the Yellow Jackets did in Week 3: def. No. 12 Clemson, 24-21
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets against ranked opponents: 7-1.
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets against unranked opponents: 14-15.
Does this make sense? No. Is it utterly delightful? Yes. (And has Tech overachieved against SP+ projections in all three games thus far? Also yes.)
18. Utah (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 18th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.7%
What the Utes did in Week 3: def. Wyoming, 31-6
Missed field goals and a turnover kept Utah from pulling away from Wyoming until well into the second half Saturday, but instead of getting Laramie’d, the Utes kept their heads and laid the hammer down. It’s probably pretty easy to keep your head when you know you have a defense as good as Utah’s on your side.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 26th and 43rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.2%
What the Cardinals did in Week 3: bye week
Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals have played almost precisely to SP+ projections thus far. If they keep that up, it’s going to be an awfully fun fall in Louisville considering they’re projected favorites in nine of their final 10 games.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 23rd and 34th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.7%
What the Cyclones did in Week 3: def. Arkansas State, 24-16
ISU’s Saturday trip to Jonesboro was … strange. The Cyclones averaged 7.7 yards per play with a robust 52.5% success rate, and they held ASU to 16 points. But they still had to make two fourth-quarter stops to secure a win thanks to a couple of missed opportunities and a pretty slow tempo. Regardless, they’re 4-0, and they finally get a welcome week off.
21. TCU (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 24th and 25th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Horned Frogs did in Week 3: def. Abilene Christian, 42-21
The Frogs only beat ACU by 21 despite being projected as 39-point favorites. A major letdown? Not really. They were up 28-0 at half and outgained the Wildcats 444-157 before garbage time set in. Sonny Dykes’ squad is taking care of business quickly in 2025.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 19th and 20th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. South Alabama, 31-15
Against a tricky and athletic South Alabama team, Auburn raced to an early lead, and while the Tigers never quite landed the knockout blow, they should be able to close out an unbeaten nonconference slate for the first time in six years. (Only Mercer remains.) That’s what we call progress.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 21st and 17th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Cornhuskers did in Week 3: def. Houston Christian, 59-7
Since an entirely unconvincing Week 1 win over Cincinnati, the Huskers have mauled two outmatched opponents (Akron and HCU) by a combined 127-7. Is that a sign of improvement or simply a sign that they can maul outmatched opponents? We’ll find out soon enough: Michigan comes to Lincoln this Saturday.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 51st and 47th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Green Wave did in Week 3: def. Duke, 34-27
Jon Sumrall’s Green Wave nearly let things get messy Saturday night, watching an 18-point lead shrink to seven in the final minute. But they still got the job done, and they still have a pair of power-conference victories on the résumé. No one else in the Group of 5 can say that. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff was one hell of a summer pickup.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 32nd and 29th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What the Huskies did in Week 3: bye week
Few teams have backfields with more dynamic combos than Washington with Demond Williams Jr. and Jonah Coleman. The Huskies get to face one more sketchy defense (Washington State’s) before the grind really begins. So far so good, however, in Jedd Fisch’s second season.
26. BYU (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 28th and 22nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What the Cougars did in Week 3: bye week
True freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has looked like a true freshman, and that will probably catch up to the Cougars in a Big 12 loaded with even matchups and close games. But their defense has been downright mean thus far, and few teams are more physical in the trenches.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 29th and 36th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 8.7%
What the Tigers did in Week 3: def. Troy, 28-7
The Tigers haven’t had the marquee opportunities that conference mates Tulane and USF have seen thus far, but they’re the top-ranked Group of 5 team in both SP+ and FPI, and they get their shot this weekend. With maybe their best defense in more than a decade, they’ll try to slow down a torrid Arkansas attack in Fayetteville.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 39th and 38th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Wildcats did in Week 3: def. Kansas State, 23-17
Good news for Arizona fans: Your team is pretty good again! Bad news: Of the Wildcats’ nine remaining games, eight are projected as one-score affairs, per SP+. Anxiety potential is off the charts. They have a puncher’s chance at 11-1 or 12-0, but 4-8 or 5-7 are still on the table too.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 43rd and 60th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.03%
What the Terrapins did in Week 3: def. Towson, 44-17
Freshman quarterback Malik Washington is holding up, and the defense has overachieved against projections in two of three games. I don’t know where Maryland is going to end up this season, but this team’s ceiling is quite a bit higher than it seemed a few weeks ago.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 50th and 49th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What the Cougars did in Week 3: def. Colorado, 36-20
The defense hasn’t fallen off at all under new coordinator Austin Armstrong, and while the offense isn’t amazing, quarterback Conner Weigman (222 passing yards, 83 rushing yards) was awfully solid against Colorado on Friday night.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 45th and 42nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Bulldogs did in Week 3: def. Alcorn State, 63-0
The Bulldogs probably aren’t going to win many more games this season — after this week’s matchup with Northern Illinois, they’ll face eight straight opponents ranked in the SP+ top 30 — but after a dismal first season under Jeff Lebby, they’re decidedly decent, and they’ll have a shot at eking out bowl eligibility.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 46th and 44th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Scarlet Knights did in Week 3: def. Norfolk State, 60-10
An offense that ranks ninth in points per possession and a defense that ranks 83rd? What in the name of Greg Schiano is going on here? The Scarlet Knights, unrecognizable as they may be, will have a chance to stay on this list for a while with close upcoming games against Iowa, Minnesota and Washington.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 53rd and 58th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1%
What the Golden Bears did in Week 3: def. Minnesota, 27-14
It will take an upset to knock freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the Golden Bears off this list: After Saturday night’s upset-that-didn’t-look-like-an-upset over Minnesota, they’re projected favorites in each of their next six games.
34. Navy (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 49th and 68th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What the Midshipmen did in Week 3: def. Tulsa, 42-23
Quarterback Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen just continue to cruise right along. They’re now 13-3 since the start of 2024, and while trips to North Texas, Notre Dame and Memphis loom late in the season, they’re projected favorites in their next five games.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 56th and 53rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.04%
What the Wolfpack did in Week 3: def. Wake Forest, 34-24
Dave Doeren’s resilient Wolfpack trailed both Virginia and Wake Forest midway through the third quarter but allowed a combined seven second-half points in the two games and eventually pulled off wins. The pass defense scares me, and the offense is pretty all-or-nothing, but this is a confident, 60-minute team.
36. UCF (2-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 59th and 48th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.01%
What the Knights did in Week 3: bye week
Scott Frost has won 15 straight games as UCF’s head coach, dating back to his first tenure. The offense scored only 17 points against Jacksonville State in Week 1, but the defense has been legit thus far, and Frost could become the second collegiate head coach to hand Bill Belichick a loss this Saturday.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 66th and 67th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.7%
What the Mean Green did in Week 3: def. Washington State, 59-10
On Saturday, North Texas laid down maybe the best performance of any G5 team this season. The Mean Green were about 7-point favorites against Washington State and won by seven touchdowns instead. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker‘s next poor performance will be his first in college.
38. UNLV (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 76th and 65th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.2%
What the Rebels did in Week 3: bye week
Dan Mullen’s first UNLV team is learning and growing, from a narrow defeat of Idaho State in Week 0 to a win over UCLA in Week 2. (Granted, New Mexico’s Week 3 pummeling of the Bruins made that look less impressive.) Now come tricky trips to Miami (Ohio) and Wyoming.
SP+ and FPI rankings: 58th and 69th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.01%
What the Spartans did in Week 3: def. Youngstown State, 41-24
Like Louisville, Jonathan Smith’s Spartans have basically played precisely to projections in 2025. Unlike Louisville, it won’t be great if that continues: They’re projected underdogs against eight of nine Big Ten opponents.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
• Marshall (up 7.0 adjusted points per game, ranking rose from 123rd to 99th)
• Penn State (up 6.3 points, rose from seventh to first)
• UTSA (up 6.0 points, rose from 90th to 67th)
• Stanford (up 5.8 points, rose from 103rd to 86th)
• Miami (up 5.5 points, rose from 27th to 10th)
It’s been a really funky year in FBS-versus-FCS games. We’ve seen enough strangely unimpressive performances — Georgia vs. Austin Peay, for example — that teams seem to be getting extra credit for dominating decent FCS opponents. This week’s top three movers, for instance, beat three top-40 FCS teams by a combined 138-33 and charged upward. It is what it is, I guess.
The other two teams on the list, however, surprised in different ways. Miami handled its business against everyone’s favorite Group of 5 team (USF), while Stanford shut out a decent Boston College team in the second half to win with shocking comfort, 30-20.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
• South Carolina (down 8.9 adjusted points per game, ranking fell from 12th to 48th)
• Central Michigan (down 8.3 points, fell from 119th to 132nd)
• Washington State (down 8.0 points, fell from 76th to 103rd)
• New Mexico State (down 6.9 points, fell from 109th to 125th)
• Appalachian State (down 6.1 points, fell from 84th to 100th)
There’s no “your quarterback got hurt in the second quarter” adjustment in the SP+ formula, so South Carolina’s jarring 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt as a projected 9.5-point favorite resulted in an absolute plummet. It’s probably not a surprise that Washington State fell by a similar amount after a 59-10 no-show at North Texas.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
For the third straight week, we have an almost completely new top 10:
1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (21-for-29 passing for 353 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 64 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Arkansas).
2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (23-for-31 passing for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 48 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Tennessee).
3. Taylen Green, Arkansas (22-for-35 passing for 305 yards and 1 touchdown, plus 115 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Ole Miss).
4. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24-for-29 passing for 382 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 39 non-sack rushing yards against Wisconsin).
5. Jake Retzlaff, Tulane (15-for-23 passing for 245 yards, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Duke).
6. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (22 carries for 250 yards and 3 TDs against Louisiana).
7. Behren Morton, Texas Tech (23-for-35 passing for 464 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT against Oregon State).
8. Eric Gentry, USC (8 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against Purdue).
9. Mario Craver, Texas A&M (7 catches for 207 yards and 1 TD against Notre Dame).
10. Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (16-for-22 passing for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Virginia Tech).
Considering how many SEC quarterbacks have played disappointing ball this season – Texas’ Arch Manning, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Florida’s DJ Lagway, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers – it’s pretty incredible that four other SEC QBs were no-brainers for the top five this week. All of them had a case for No. 1 (as did Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff, honestly), but I went with the sentimental choice. You know I love the smaller-school guys, and watching former Division II star Trinidad Chambliss, a Ferris State transfer, light up Arkansas with deep ball after deep ball (and a few nice runs) made me very happy.
Honorable mention:
• Damon Bankston, New Mexico (15 carries for 154 yards and a TD, plus 49 receiving yards and another TD against UCLA).
• Carson Beck, Miami (23-for-28 passing for 340 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 32 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against USF)
• Chris Brazzell, Tennessee (6 catches for 177 yards and 3 TDs against Georgia).
• Omar Cooper, Indiana (10 catches for 207 yards and 4 TDs against Indiana State).
• John Henry Dailey, Utah (six tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Wyoming).
• Josh Hoover, TCU (21-for-27 passing for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns against Abilene Christian).
• Ismail Mahdi, Arizona (22 carries for 189 yards, plus 32 receiving yards against Kansas State).
• E. Jai Mason, Charlotte (10 catches for 228 yards and 2 TDs against Monmouth).
• Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19-for-20 passing for 270 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Indiana State).
• Bryce Underwood, Michigan (16-for-25 passing for 235 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 114 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Central Michigan).
Through three weeks, here are your points leaders:
1T. QB Taylen Green, Arkansas (15 points)
1T. QB Ty Simpson, Alabama (15 points)
3T. QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (10 points)
3T. RB Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)
3T. QB Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
6T. QB Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)
6T. QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (nine points)
6T. DB Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)
10. QB Parker Navarro, Ohio (eight points)
Three weeks in, and this list still makes no sense. This has been a very unusual season thus far. The only two players to show up on this list twice so far are Green and Simpson, and that certainly isn’t something I would have guessed when the season began (or after Simpson struggled so much in Week 1 against Florida State). On we go, into the back half of September, and the Heisman race hasn’t even really begun yet.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
Once again, I couldn’t hold my 10 Favorite Games list to 10 games. Saturday was absolutely glorious. You could have had about a six-way tie at No. 1.
1-2. No. 16 Texas A&M 41, No. 8 Notre Dame 40 and No. 17 Ole Miss 41, Arkansas 35. These were basically the same games, only Texas A&M actually scored at the end, while Arkansas lost a fumble and came up 25 yards short. Regardless, both games topped 900 total yards, and each had about 38 plot twists. Absolutely delightful.
3. No. 6 Georgia 44, No. 15 Tennessee 41 (OT). A surefire No. 1 in a normal week. This one had 998 total yards and what felt like a couple of different knockout blows. And crowd reaction shots. So many great crowd reaction shots.
4. Georgia Tech 24, No. 12 Clemson 21. Now I’m mad at myself. How is this one not No. 1?? It only had the smoothest game-winning, 55-yard fire-drill field goal you’ll ever see …
0:27
Aidan Birr kicks 55-yard field goal
Aidan Birr kicks 55-yard field goal
5. Division III: Plymouth State 47, Worcester State 46. Up in Plymouth, New Hampshire, we got a D-III classic. Worcester State scored twice in the fourth quarter to take a 39-32 lead into the final minute, but Jacob Morris snagged a 52-yard Hail Mary at the buzzer, and after both teams traded overtime TDs, Greg Walker’s rush gave the Panthers a thrilling win.
Hail Mary alert!!!!! Jacob Morris hauled in a 52 yard heave from Braden Lynn to help force OT in a game the Panthers would eventually win 47-46!! #d3fb #SCTop10 #d3playbook @mascacsports pic.twitter.com/5I0D8KWvqe
— Plymouth St. Sports (@PSUPanthers) September 13, 2025
6. West Virginia 31, Pitt 24 (OT). A Backyard Brawl featuring a 10-point comeback in the final 10 minutes, overtime and an exultant Rich Rodriguez? And it was sixth? What a week.
7-8. FCS: NC A&T 33, Hampton 30 (2OT) and Grambling 37, Kentucky State 31 (OT). The HBCU universe always delivers. North Carolina A&T trailed Hampton by 10 with one minute left and was all but assured of a 13th straight loss, but a patented touchdown-onside kick-field goal combo forced overtime, and Wesley Graves‘ second-OT touchdown finished an absolute heist.
Grambling, meanwhile, spotted D-II opponent Kentucky State leads of 14-0 early and 31-24 late, but C’zavian Teasett forced overtime with a TD run with 10 seconds left, and overtime gave us one of the best phrases in the sport: walk-off fumble return.
TYRELL RABY!!! FORCES THE FUMBLE AND RETURNS IT FOR THE GAME WINNING TOUCHDOWN!!!
TIGERS WIN!!!#GramFam | #ThisIsTheG🐯 pic.twitter.com/xUkY7x6hQR
— Grambling State Football 🐯 (@GSUFootball01) September 14, 2025
The poor cameraman had no idea.
9. Delaware 44, UConn 41 (OT). It seemed like UConn had finally taken control after falling into an early 21-10 hole, but a big Nick Minicucci-to-Kyre Duplessis pass set up a game-tying 43-yard field goal for Delaware at the buzzer. And after UConn opened overtime with a field goal, the Blue Hens secured a lovely upset with a 13-yard Minicucci run up the middle.
10. NAIA: Louisiana Christian 43, Wayland Baptist 37. It isn’t just that the teams combined for 36 fourth-quarter points. It’s that basically all the points came from fireworks. Wayland Baptist turned a 30-17 deficit into a 37-30 lead with touchdown passes of 79 and 27 yards and an 83-yard fumble return, but Louisiana Christian turned right around and tied the game on a 24-yard touchdown pass, then won it on a 31-yard Jaterrius Johns run with 1:33 left. It was almost surprising that WBU couldn’t squeeze in one more score at the end.
11. Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13. After a hopeless 0-2 start, MTSU found itself down 13-0 midway through the fourth quarter in Reno. But Nicholas Vattiato threw a touchdown pass to Nahzae Cox, then scored the winning touchdown run with 21 seconds left to create a hockey stick of a win probability chart.
12. Buffalo 31, Kent State 28. A game of runs: 14-0 Kent State, then 24-0 Buffalo, then 14-0 Kent State. Dru DeShields gave Kent State — a huge home underdog — a 28-24 lead with just 2:38 left, but Buffalo saved itself with a Ta’Quan Roberson-to-Victor Snow TD pass and a pair of late stops.
13-15. FCS: No. 19 Northern Arizona 52, Southern Utah 49; No. 7 Montana 24, No. 17 North Dakota 23; Weber State 42, McNeese State 41. The Big Sky delivered a trio of thrillers. Weber State nearly blew a 42-21 lead in the final 10 minutes of a big-play festival but stopped a last-minute 2-point conversion to survive. Montana, meanwhile, had to dig out of a 23-14 hole in the last five minutes to win with a 28-yard Keali’i Ah Yat-to-Brooks Davis TD pass. And in Cedar City, Utah, Ty Pennington‘s 2-point conversion pass to Jayson Raines with 29 seconds left gave NAU a Grand Canyon Trophy win over host Southern Utah.
16. Charlotte 42, Monmouth 35. A tossup game on paper, this one saw five ties and wasn’t decided until Conner Harrell plunged into the end zone with 90 seconds left and Charlotte’s defense made a late stop.
17. Ball State 34, New Hampshire 29. Ball State was actually a home underdog in this one and gave up a blocked punt touchdown 67 seconds into the game. But running back Qua Ashley keyed a 27-7 Cardinals run, and the defense stopped UNH near midfield on its final possession.
18. Division III: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons 24, McMurry 19. In the battle for the Wilford Moore Trophy, these Abilene rivals went down to the wire. Hardin-Simmons took a 24-6 lead into halftime, but McMurry charged back and had a chance to win until Caden Sampson-Stuckey’s fourth-down sack of Dylan Plake with 49 seconds left.
19-20. Division II: No. 25 Minnesota Duluth 17, No. 7 Minnesota State 14 and No. 24 Pittsburg State 17, No. 3 Grand Valley State 14. Two top-10 teams in Division II fell by the same score almost simultaneously Saturday evening. First, Minnesota-Duluth’s Jadon Apgar hit a 25-yard field goal at the buzzer to beat Minnesota State in Duluth; a few minutes later, GVSU imploded, throwing an interception with 5:04 left, then committing two fourth-down penalties to allow host Pitt State to run out the clock. Ouch.
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