MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1 one month into the season?
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adminWe’re around the one-month mark of the 2023 MLB season, and while it’s still too early to be paying too much attention to the standings, five of the six division leaders are teams that didn’t win their divisions last year.
We’re not even out of April yet and there’s a long season ahead, but it’s nevertheless surprising to see teams such as the Rangers and Pirates atop their respective divisions. Both teams are on the move in our Power Rankings, too, as Texas has cracked the top 10 and Pittsburgh made the biggest jump of the season so far, up seven spots to No. 14.
Can these clubs carry their momentum into May?
Our expert panel has ranked all 30 teams based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Joon Lee to weigh in with an observation for each team.
Record: 20-5
Previous ranking: 2
Tampa Bay received a blow to its rotation after Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery on Monday, but the Rays keep rolling. Randy Arozarena is mashing at the plate, hitting .341/.410/.571 through 23 games so far this season, ranking third among position players on the team with 1.0 bWAR. Zach Eflin — the team’s biggest free agent signing this offseason — looks strong through three starts, posting a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings. — Lee
Record: 17-8
Previous ranking: 1
The Braves had a tough weekend series at home against the Astros — losing all three games. On Friday, the bullpen allowed three runs in the seventh and then A.J. Minter served up a game-losing home run to Yordan Alvarez in the ninth. Kyle Wright was cruising on Saturday until Alvarez and Kyle Tucker connected for two-run homers in the sixth. On Sunday, the Astros scored five runs in the final two innings for a 5-2 victory as Minter once again took the loss.
Spencer Strider came to the rescue on Monday, taking a no-hitter into the eighth against the Marlins (it would have been a perfect game attempt if not for Matt Olson‘s error). He settled for two hits in eight innings with 13 strikeouts — and has become the Cy Young betting favorite in Vegas. — Schoenfield
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 4
The big news from this past week — beyond Justin Verlander‘s impending return — was Max Scherzer‘s ejection in the fourth inning of a win on April 19, resulting in a 10-day suspension the following day for excessive stickiness on his fingers. He’s just the third pitcher to be ejected from a game since umpires began in-game checks in 2021. ESPN analyst David Cone showed how a little rosin and alcohol (which Scherzer claimed he used to wash his hands after the umpires asked) can actually increase the tackiness. Of note: Umpire Phil Cuzzi has tossed all three of those pitchers. The Mets, meanwhile, will have to get through this stretch without Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco (ailing right elbow) and Jose Quintana. Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi have entered the rotation. — Schoenfield
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 7
One guy playing an unexpectedly large role in the American League playoff chase this season is Astros utility man Mauricio Dubon, who has started 21 games at second base because of the absence of Jose Altuve. All Dubon has done is hit .330/.355/.420 in the early going with 18 runs scored. He’s been hitting in Altuve’s usual leadoff spot since April 15, and during that span, he’s hit .313 with 11 runs scored in 11 games, all while pushing his hitting streak to 20 games, the longest in the majors this season and the longest by an Astros player since Michael Brantley in 2019. As a team, the Astros get plenty of attention, but if there is one guy on the roster who likely isn’t getting the due he’s earned, it’s Dubon. — Doolittle
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 3
Yankees fans might be inching closer to the panic button, as the team sits just ahead of the Red Sox in fourth place in the American League East after the Twins won their first season series over New York since 2001 this week. Franchy Cordero has come back down to earth after getting off to a scorching hot start with the Yankees. One of the team’s biggest struggles remains the outfield, with both Willie Calhoun and Aaron Hicks ranking among the least productive position players in baseball receiving regular playing time. They both boast a Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR) below 0. — Lee
Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 6
In addition to the hot starts from Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, Kevin Kiermaier has been hitting the cover off the ball, hitting .299/.338/.448 in 20 games this season. Toronto’s offense could reach a whole other level when outfielder Daulton Varsho finds his stroke at the plate, as he’s hit .198/.300/.314 in 24 games. Toronto will need more from Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah, but Yusei Kikuchi is off to a strong start, posting a 3.00 ERA in five starts. — Lee
Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 5
Milwaukee came back down to earth following its successful road trip with series wins over the Padres and Mariners, losing a home series to the Red Sox while compiling a 5.60 ERA in a five-day span ending on Tuesday. That ranked 14th in the National League, ahead of only the Marlins. Most of that damage came on Saturday in a 12-5 loss to Boston. It was about the only poorly pitched game of the month for Milwaukee, with most of the runs scored against the bullpen. The Brewers still rank third overall in ERA in the NL and have firmly established themselves as contenders in the NL Central for the long haul. — Rogers
Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 8
It’s still early, of course, but Max Muncy has eased concerns that his down year in 2022 would spill over into 2023. He is OPS’ing 1.129 with a major-league-leading 11 home runs while boasting the sport’s second-highest walk rate thus far, joining upstart rookie James Outman in helping to carry the Dodgers’ offense through the first month. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have yet to hit full stride, Will Smith is on the injured list, and the likes of David Peralta, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas, the latter of whom is nursing a hamstring injury, have struggled. Muncy’s production has been essential. — Gonzalez
Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 11
The longer the Rangers hang around first place in the AL West, the more they give credence to the idea that they have a shot to contend. That was no sure thing a few months ago, even with their big-name offseason additions, but manager Bruce Bochy has Texas playing good baseball. Adolis Garcia is heating up, too. He went 8-for-19 with three home runs over a four-game span from last Friday to Tuesday, earning him AL Player of the Week honors. All three of his long balls came in a historic game for him on Saturday, as he went 5-for-5 against the A’s, driving in eight runs while totaling 16 bases. Garcia had a whole week of production in one game. — Rogers
Record: 13-13
Previous ranking: 9
Fernando Tatis Jr. struggled through his first five games, getting his first home run out of the way but slashing only .182/.250/.318. Wednesday’s victory at Wrigley Field, however, might have qualified as his coming-out party. Tatis, the superstar shortstop-turned-outfielder coming off a PED suspension, drove in three runs, including the ones that put his team ahead late. The Padres are still waiting on Manny Machado and Juan Soto to get going. Tatis providing a spark from the leadoff spot would be huge for them at the moment. — Gonzalez
Record: 16-8
Previous ranking: 14
Baltimore’s winning streak might have come against some of the lesser competition in baseball, but it still finds itself with a record that keeps it on pace with the first-place Rays. This isn’t the best the Orioles can be, either, with infielder Gunnar Henderson struggling at the plate to start the season, hitting .194/.357/.328 with two homers in 21 games. Meanwhile, shortstop Jorge Mateo continues an incredibly hot start to the season, ranking in the top 10 among all position players in bWAR. — Lee
Record: 14-11
Previous ranking: 10
The collective performance by the big three of the Twins’ rotation — Sonny Gray (3-0, 0.62 ERA), Joe Ryan (5-0, 2.81) and Pablo Lopez (1-2, 3.00) — has been one of the emergent stories of baseball’s first month. All three, arguably among the top 10 Cy Young candidates in the AL, are established veterans who have nonetheless found new levels to their game this season. There was a lot of uncertainty about the Twins’ pitching program last season with the highly respected Wes Johnson announcing he was leaving to return to college baseball. Most of everything that has happened since then suggests that Minnesota’s pitchers are in good hands with Pete Maki heading up the operation. — Doolittle
Record: 13-10
Previous ranking: 15
The euphoria surrounding the Cubs’ early-season success was tempered a little when the Dodgers took three of four games from Chicago at Wrigley Field over the weekend, with Muncy and Outman doing a lot of the damage for L.A. But the Cubs should still be proud of their season so far.
Now, they just need to figure out how to get out of the ninth inning, as Michael Fulmer has had a rough month. He’s blown two saves while compiling an 8.68 ERA in the early going, forcing manager David Ross to look elsewhere. Lefty Brandon Hughes could get some chances or so could righty Mark Leiter Jr., who was designated for assignment by the Cubs in January. Now he’s a valuable thrower in the pen. Veteran Brad Boxberger is another option. — Rogers
Record: 17-8
Previous ranking: 21
When was the last time the Pirates were the talk of the baseball world? After vaulting to the top of the standings, they made big news on Tuesday by signing center fielder Bryan Reynolds to an eight-year, $106.75 million deal. It signals the Pirates’ desire to compete and not just perennially rebuild. Their string of 12 consecutive quality starts was longer than any streak for a team all of last season, as well as the first month of this one. Manager Derek Shelton was also given an extension. Pittsburgh could not have asked for a better first month to the season. — Rogers
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 12
Even with injuries sidelining rotation fixtures Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale, the Guardians’ pitching has been terrific during an overall start that, to be kind, can be summed up as topsy-turvy. An offense that looked solid during the Guardians’ season-opening road trip to the West Coast has been in a virtual free fall over the past two weeks, even as Cleveland has come up against some of the lesser competition on its schedule.
Perhaps even more concerning for the position player group is that the Guardians’ defense, which was such a key part of their surprise run to the AL Central crown in 2022, has ranked near the bottom of the majors this season. The good news: It’s still early. — Doolittle
Record: 14-12
Previous ranking: 13
The D-backs’ sense of urgency can be felt in the way they’ve shaken up their rotation. On April 20, they cut ties with an ineffective Madison Bumgarner, eating a remaining $34 million in salary in the process. Four days later, they optioned one of their promising young pitchers, Drey Jameson, back to the minor leagues. The expectation is that Brandon Pfaadt, ranked 32nd in Kiley McDaniel’s Top 100, will eventually fill his spot in the rotation. Pfaadt, 24, has a 3.91 ERA in his first five Triple-A starts this year, striking out 30 and walking only six in 25⅓ innings. — Gonzalez
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 19
Yes, that’s Brandon Marsh leading the majors in OPS at 1.138 — .351/.435/.703 with 14 extra-base hits, including an MLB-leading four triples. The Phillies acquired him for his glove in center field, not his offensive potential — he posted a .679 OPS last season in his first full year in the majors — so this is a shocking start.
One big change: He’s swinging less. He hacked at the first pitch 27% of the time last season; that’s down to below 15%, which has helped improve his overall chase rate. Yes, swinging at strikes helps. There’s been some good fortune here — his Statcast numbers suggest an expected batting average of .253 — but there’s been a real change in approach that is paying dividends. — Schoenfield
Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 16
After going 3-for-4 on Tuesday, including hitting his seventh home run, Jarred Kelenic moved atop the AL leaderboard in OPS. For all the attention given to his hot spring training, nobody expected him to turn into one of the league’s best hitters in the first month.
While some minor mechanical adjustments have no doubt helped, it’s more about Kelenic’s pitch awareness: recognizing off-speed and laying off fastballs up out of the zone. His chase rate has improved — he’s in the 83rd percentile — and his contact rate in the zone has gone way up. His first two seasons, he hit .124 against curves, sliders and changeups. He’s holding his own against those pitches in 2023 with a an average above .250 and three home runs. And he’s not missing fastballs: .405 with four home runs. — Schoenfield
Record: 13-13
Previous ranking: 20
It’s still early, but Chris Sale‘s struggles remain one of Boston’s biggest concerns. Sale struggled against the Orioles on Monday, allowing five runs on nine hits while striking out none in five innings. The lefty is the key to the Red Sox rotation resembling anything close to playoff-caliber. But Sale largely looks like someone who might be past his prime, rather than someone who can find some magic again after pitching in a total of 11 games over the previous three seasons. — Lee
Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 17
One of the Angels’ trades with the Phillies last summer was looking like a legitimate win-win. While Marsh is tearing it up in Philadelphia, Logan O’Hoppe was starting to look like a cornerstone catcher, OPS’ing .886 through the first 16 games of his age-23 season while showing all the traits necessary to stick at the position. But O’Hoppe tore the labrum in his left shoulder on a swing last Thursday, and now his season might be over. With Max Stassi still recovering, the Angels are giving meaningful playing time to their fourth-string catcher. Their depth at first base and shortstop has also been tested. — Gonzalez
Record: 9-16
Previous ranking: 18
A miserable month can’t come to a close soon enough for the Cardinals. St. Louis is finally starting to pitch better, but that doesn’t excuse lofty ERAs for starters Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in April. The Cards aren’t deep enough on the mound to withstand multiple starters struggling — and that’s not to mention Jack Flaherty, who is still slowly returning to form after all of his injuries. If those starters don’t get rolling, it’s going to be a long season in St. Louis — no matter how well the offense performs. — Rogers
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 22
The Marlins had won four straight series — against the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants and Guardians — before dropping their past two games against the Braves. With the team hovering around .500, a reason to be optimistic is that the rotation — the supposed strength of the team — hasn’t been all that great so far, ranking 17th in the majors in ERA. Edward Cabrera‘s success will be a huge key, with Sandy Alcantara in somewhat of a slump and Trevor Rogers landing on the IL with a left biceps strain. Cabrera had a 3.01 ERA in his 14 starts last season but has an MLB-leading 20 walks in 22 innings this season. He has to start getting ahead of more hitters. — Schoenfield
Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 24
The homer-happy Giants have been undone largely by their bullpen thus far. Their relievers have combined for a 5.17 ERA , second-worst in the NL, while allowing 14 home runs in only 94 innings. Of notable concern has been the bridge to the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, John Brebbia and closer Camilo Doval, though Brebbia’s ERA is a little bloated at the moment as well. The bullpen could use some of the depth that the lineup has displayed, in which nine different players have homered at least three times through the season’s first four weeks. — Gonzalez
Record: 7-18
Previous ranking: 23
The White Sox’s cruel April continues, and while their season is not yet a wasteland, their playoff probabilities seemingly plummet with each passing game. With the hot start by Luis Robert Jr. wearing off in recent games, there really is no silver lining to be found from Chicago’s showing thus far. Looking ahead, only the eventual returns of Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Liam Hendriks give South Side fans something to look forward to. This roster has already been exposed, so the question for a less gruesome May becomes: By the time the White Sox get healthy, will it already be too late? — Doolittle
Record: 9-14
Previous ranking: 26
No team in the AL has a larger discrepancy between expected record — based on run differential — and actual record. Yet a win is a win, and as we near the end of April, the Tigers are closer to second place in the AL Central than fourth. After Detroit’s pitching staff was blitzed early by the Rays, Astros and Red Sox, the run prevention has gotten off the deck and trended toward league average. Eduardo Rodriguez looks resurgent in the rotation, and manager AJ Hinch has unfurled a vicious one-two high-leverage punch at the back of his bullpen in Jason Foley and Alex Lange. So, the theme for the Tigers’ first month: Hey, it could be a lot worse. — Doolittle
Record: 10-15
Previous ranking: 25
Cincinnati got a taste of what the Pirates are all about this month when it was swept in a four-game series over the weekend, scoring only six runs. The Reds gave up only 12 themselves, so there were a few positives, including a solid outing from Hunter Greene. But Nick Lodolo had his first bad start this season when the Rangers tagged him for nine hits and six runs over four innings on Monday. The growing pains that the Reds’ rotation will go through this season should pay dividends down the line — but it won’t be anytime soon. — Rogers
Record: 8-18
Previous ranking: 27
The Rockies activated German Marquez off the IL for Wednesday’s start, leaving them with seemingly no choice but to designate Jose Urena for assignment. Urena, re-signed on a one-year, $3.5 million contract that included a 2024 club option this offseason, was 0-4 with a 9.82 ERA through his first five starts this season, while giving up nine home runs and issuing 14 walks in 18⅓ innings. One positive: Austin Gomber, also struggling mightily, pitched five scoreless innings against the Guardians on Monday. — Gonzalez
Record: 9-14
Previous ranking: 29
After a three-homer game in his first start, Josiah Gray has spun off four straight solid starts with no more than two runs allowed, including six scoreless innings against the Mets on Tuesday with nine strikeouts. Those four games haven’t come against an easy slate, either: at Colorado and then against the Angels, Orioles and Mets.
The other pitcher for Washington perhaps making a big leap is reliever Mason Thompson. He’s averaged nearly two innings per outing and leads all relievers in innings entering Thursday. He’s posted an impressive 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with just 10 hits in 18⅔ innings. The Nationals aren’t going anywhere in 2023, but this is what they need: some of their young players to prove themselves as legit major leaguers. — Schoenfield
Record: 6-19
Previous ranking: 28
If the theme for the Tigers is “Hey, it could be a lot worse,” for the Royals it’s more like, “How much worse can it get?” It’s been a rough month for Kansas City, made even more devastating this week by the news that Kris Bubic is headed for Tommy John surgery. Even the team’s defense, which has solid overall metrics, has recently shown a penchant for committing clutch errors. The short-term project for Matt Quatraro, the Royals’ first-year manager, is simply to create some kind of positive momentum, because a big step back is not what Kansas City fans were expecting from this stage of their team’s ever-lengthening rebuild. — Doolittle
Record: 5-20
Previous ranking: 30
The Athletics look like one of the worst teams in recent memory, with a rotation led by JP Sears, whose 4.98 ERA is the lowest of any pitcher who’s started a game on the team. This disaster of a season is what happens when ownership refuses to invest in a team for the long term, trading away star players to maximize team revenue. Oakland traded away Chapman, Matt Olson, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy and has not received much in return. Oakland’s baseball fans deserve so much better than this. — Lee
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MLB Awards Week results and analysis: Skenes, Gil each win Rookie of the Year
Published
11 hours agoon
November 19, 2024By
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff WriterNov 18, 2024, 07:02 PM ET
Close- Sports reporter, Kansas City Star, 2002-09
- Writer, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus
- Member, Baseball Writers Association of America
- Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association
Welcome to MLB Awards Week.
November has become awards season in baseball, which increasingly serves as a way to keep eyeballs on the game before the hot stove season ramps up. So far, we’ve gotten the Gold Glove Awards, Silver Sluggers, the All-MLB Team and more.
Now, it’s time for the biggies — the four major awards determined by Baseball Writers’ Association of America voting and that will feature prominently in baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés of the future. The winners are being announced live each night on MLB Network, starting at 6 p.m. ET.
On Monday, a pair of starting pitchers — Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees — got the week rolling, winning the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award in the National League and American League, respectively.
Here’s the rest of the week’s schedule:
Tuesday: Managers of the Year
Wednesday: Cy Young Awards
Thursday: MVP Awards
Below, we list the three finalists in each of the big four categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced, and who our panel of ESPN MLB experts believes should take home the hardware. We’ll update each section with news and analysis as the awards are handed out.
Jump to:
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
MVP: AL | NL
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Final tally: Gil 106 (15 first-place votes); Colton Cowser, Orioles, 101 (13); Austin Wells, Yankees, 17; Mason Miller, Athletics, 16 (1); Cade Smith, Guardians, 12 (1); Wilyer Abreu; Red Sox, 11; Wyatt Langford, Rangers, 7
Experts’ pick: Gil (7 votes); Cowser (1 vote); Smith (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: This was a race in which you could have plucked the names of any of about seven players out of a hat without worry of finding a wrong answer. Of course, by the time Monday rolled around, we were down to three names in that hat, the finalists, but the statement holds true. There was no wrong answer, which is probably why the voting was so close.
With no clear front-runner, voters had to weigh some narrative aspects alongside a muddy statistical leaderboard, one that gave different answers depending on which site you happened to pull up. That’s why AXE (see note) exists — to create a consensus from these different systems — but it didn’t do much to clarify the AL rookie derby.
Gil and Wells, both essential rookie contributors to the Yankees’ run to the World Series, excelled with a lot of eyeballs on them all season, and that certainly didn’t hurt their support. Cowser’s role as an every-day player for the playoff-bound Orioles also had a high-visibility context. It feels like that, as much as anything, is why this trio emerged as finalists in a hard-to-separate field.
The emergence of Gil and the gaps he filled in an injury-depleted Yankees rotation were too much to ignore. It was a surprising emergence: Gil is 26, and he debuted in professional baseball way back in 2015 as a 17-year-old in the Minnesota organization. But when you talk about impact, you can conjure up all sorts of ill scenarios for New York had he not led AL rookies with 15 wins, 141 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA (minimum 10 starts).
The voters got it right, if only because they could not possibly have gotten it wrong.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Smith, Guardians (117 AXE)
2. Langford, Rangers (116)
3. (tie) Miller, Athletics (115)
Abreu, Red Sox (115)
Gil, Yankees (115, winner)
6. Wells, Yankees (113, finalist)
7. Cowser, Orioles (111, finalist)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
ROY must-read:
Bump in the road or ominous sign: Has Luis Gil hit a wall after his red-hot start?
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Final tally: Skenes 136 (23 first-place votes); Jackson Merrill, Padres, 104 (7); Jackson Chourio, Brewers, 26; Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 4
Experts’ pick: Skenes (8 votes); Merrill (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: Skenes emerged as the winner of a star-studded NL rookie class that was deep in impact performances put up by high-upside prospects who should only get better as the years progress. It was also a classic debate, one that stirs the passions whether you are driven by traditional approaches or the most current of performance metrics: Can a starting pitcher really produce more value than a position player given the disparity in games played?
It’s a debate mostly settled in the MVP races, where pitchers only occasionally bob up to forefront of the conversation. The one in the NL Rookie of the Year race this season between Skenes, Merrill and, to a lesser extent, Chourio was a classic example.
Sure, Skenes was absolutely dominant; he’s a finalist in the NL Cy Young race, for goodness sake. Still, we’re talking about 23 games. Meanwhile, Merrill’s gifts were on display in 156 contests for the Padres, while Chourio played in 148 games for Milwaukee. Yes, the value metrics are supposed to clarify these comparisons, but, still, how do you weigh that kind of disparity between players with entirely different jobs?
In the end, I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that debate, nor is there a wrong answer to this balloting. Each of the finalists would have been a slam-dunk winner in many seasons. Skenes might very well be the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to these discussions a year from now, if he isn’t already. In less than a year and a half, he has been the top overall pick in the draft, started an All-Star Game and become a finalist in two of the NL’s major postseason awards.
You can certainly makes cases for Merrill and Chourio. But you can’t really make a case against Skenes, 23 games or not. Since earned runs became official in 1913, Skenes became the fourth pitcher with a strikeout rate of at least 11 per nine innings while posting an ERA under 2. He’s just that much of an outlier.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Skenes, Pirates (131 AXE, winner)
2. Merrill, Padres (128, finalist)
3. Chourio, Brewers (123, finalist)
4. Masyn Winn, Cardinals (119)
5. Imanaga, Cubs (117)
ROY must-reads:
Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace
Ranking MLB’s best rookies: Is Paul Skenes or an outfielder named Jackson No. 1?
American League MVP
Finalists:
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Juan Soto, Yankees
Experts’ pick: Judge (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: While the outcome seems like (and almost certainly is) a no-brainer, don’t let that make you lose sight of the overall dynamic around this award. In a nutshell: This is one of the greatest MVP races ever, in terms of historically elite performances from players in the same league.
The dominant performances went beyond the finalists. Five AL players posted at least 7.9 bWAR, led by the three MVP finalists, as well as Boston’s Jarren Duran and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, who both finished with higher bWAR totals than Soto. Only once before has the AL had five players produce at that level in the same season — way back in 1912.
While Soto was never far out of the picture, this was a high-octane two-player race for most of the season between the mashing dominance of Judge and the five-tool mastery of the dynamic Witt. Judge won the bWAR battle by a good margin (10.8 to 9.4) and seemed to pull away at the end of the season. Even if you don’t like to think of this in terms of bWAR, it’s hard to look past league-leading totals of 58 homers and 144 RBIs and a third-place .322 batting average, all on the league’s best team.
The real drama surrounding this award is tied to that of the NL: Will we have two unanimous MVP picks? If so, that would be just the second time it’s happened. The first? Last year, when Shohei Ohtani (then with the Angels) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) pulled it off.
MVP must-reads:
Aaron Judge is the fastest ever to 300 home runs — but how many more will he hit?
Only Juan Soto can decide if his future is with the Yankees
Baseball’s next superstar? Bobby Witt Jr.’s rise to MLB’s top tier
National League MVP
Finalists:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
Experts’ pick: Ohtani (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: When the DH became a part of big league baseball back in the 1970s, those who defended it tended to point out how it would allow older superstars to hang around for a few more years. Thus the default image of the DH was the aging, plodding slugger trying to generate occasional glimpses of what he used to be.
Things have changed. Ohtani did not don a baseball glove during a game this season and yet established himself as far and away the most dominant player in the National League. The numbers were staggering: .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 59 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs and drove in 130, even though 57% of his plate appearances came as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter.
As with Judge, the intrigue isn’t about whether Ohtani will win, but whether or not he’ll be a unanimous pick. And, let’s face it, there’s not much intrigue about that, either. If Ohtani does it, it’ll be the third time he has been a unanimous selection. No one else has done it even twice.
MVP must-reads:
51 HRs AND stolen bases?! How Shohei Ohtani transformed MLB — again
Breaking down Ohtani’s path to 50/50 — and the historic game that got him there
How Francisco Lindor became the heart and soul of the Mets
American League Cy Young
Finalists:
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
Experts’ pick: Skubal (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: Long touted for his upside, Skubal put it all together in 2024, becoming the AL’s most dominant and consistent starting pitcher during the regular season, leading the Tigers to a surprise postseason berth.
Skubal became the AL’s first full-season winner of the pitching triple crown since another Tiger, Justin Verlander, did it in 2011. (Cleveland’s Shane Bieber did it in the shortened 2020 season.) With league-leading totals of 18 wins, 228 strikeouts and a 2.39 ERA, Skubal is well positioned to win his first Cy Young.
Lugo becomes the Royals’ rotation representative in the finalist group, honoring one of MLB’s breakout units in 2024, though teammate Cole Ragans might have been just as worthy. Entering the season, Lugo had never qualified for an ERA title, but in his first campaign for Kansas City, he threw 206⅔ innings, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA.
Clase struggled in the postseason but the voting took place before that, and it recognized his unusually dominant season, good enough to justify his presence in this group despite his role as a short reliever. In 74 outings, featuring 47 saves, Clase allowed just five earned runs. He’s still a reliever and, thus, a long shot to win the award, but getting this far says a lot. The last reliever to win a Cy Young Award was the Dodgers’ Eric Gagne in 2003.
Cy Young must-read:
It’s Tarik Skubal time: With season on the line, Tigers turn to ‘best pitcher in the world’
National League Cy Young
Finalists:
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Experts’ pick: Sale (8 votes); Wheeler (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: What an interesting group of finalists this is. Value-wise, it’s a close race.
Wheeler is the constant here, as he’s enjoying a seven-year run as one of the NL’s top starting pitchers. Wheeler is still looking for his first Cy Young and entered the balloting this time around with his best résumé to date. Yet Wheeler is coming up against two pitchers with arguably more compelling — and very different — narratives.
Skenes is baseball’s ascendant ace. Few pitchers have reached the majors with higher expectations in recent years. He met the hype head-on and, if anything, proved to be even better than we thought. With the innings volume of baseball’s best starters much less than it used to be, it is possible for an elite run preventer to save runs at a clip that puts him among the league leaders during a partial season. It wasn’t Skenes’ fault that he wasn’t called up until the second week of May. All he did after that was post a 1.96 ERA over 23 starts while displaying a remarkable degree of consistency. There wasn’t a true clunker in the bunch.
And yet Sale might have been more dominant if you consider defensive-independent ERA (or FIP), in which Sale’s 2.09 bested Skenes’ 2.45. Also, like Skubal, Sale (18 wins, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts) became the first pitching triple crown winner of his league since 2011. In Sale’s case, he became the first to do it since L.A.’s Clayton Kershaw.
All this from a pitcher who once finished sixth or better in AL Cy Young voting seven straight seasons. He has never won, though, and the last of those seasons was 2018. Sale’s days as a premier starter seemed long gone … and then he did this. That’s a good narrative.
Cy Young must-reads:
Did Chris Sale pitch himself into the HOF this year?
The best stuff in baseball? How Paul Skenes is using his pitches to dominate MLB
American League Manager of the Year
Finalists:
A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers
Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals
Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
Experts’ pick: Quatraro (5 votes); Hinch (3 votes); Vogt (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: The AL Central had four solid teams in 2024, three more than most thought the division would have, and the three surprise clubs are represented here as finalists.
All of these managers have compelling cases. Hinch guided the Tigers to their second-half surge even after Detroit subtracted at the trade deadline and had to navigate around a depleted starting rotation. He has finished in the top five of balloting four times but has never won.
Vogt, a first-time manager filling the shoes of Cleveland legend Terry Francona, also had to lean on his bullpen because of rotation issues and did so with aplomb.
Yet it’s Quatraro who really stands out, leading a Royals team that lost 106 games in 2023 to the postseason. Kansas City had lineup holes and a constantly evolving bullpen picture, yet Quatraro and his staff found a way to leverage his team’s strengths (rotation, defense, Witt) into an October appearance.
National League Manager of the Year
Finalists:
Carlos Mendoza, New York Mets
Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Mike Shildt, San Diego Padres
Experts’ pick: Murphy (6 votes); Mendoza (3 votes)
Doolittle’s take: Mendoza had a fantastic first season in the Mets’ dugout, helping the team overcome a sluggish start and eventually end up facing the Dodgers in the NLCS. He did so with quiet, consistent leadership and that bodes well for his ability to last a long time in one of baseball’s most challenging environments.
Shildt, who won the award in 2019 while with the Cardinals, proved to be a feisty presence on a star-laden team with middling expectations that kept rising as the season progressed.
Murphy’s season is hard to beat. Handed the reins of a big league team for a full season for the first time at 65, Murphy was able to put his imprint on the young Brewers. This was no small feat given the departure last winter of his onetime protege, Craig Counsell, arguably the face of the franchise.
Milwaukee went young, suffered rotation shortages and had a number of moving parts in its lineup. Behind Murphy, the Brewers changed their style of play to better accentuate the athleticism on the roster, won 93 games and cruised to another NL Central title.
Earlier awards
Executive of the Year: Brewers president Matt Arnold named exec of the year
Doolittle’s take: I’ve written a couple of times this year that I think the Brewers might be the best-run organization in baseball right now, so that speaks to how I view the work of Arnold and his staff. I also have a kind of organizational mash-up metric I track during the season that considers things such as injuries, rookie contribution, payroll efficiency and in-season acquisitions, and Milwaukee topped that leaderboard.
And yet it’s somewhat stunning that Kansas City’s J.J. Picollo did not win this honor. He oversaw the team’s leap from 106 losses to the playoffs, using free agency to bolster the roster and staying proactive at the trade deadline (and the August waiver period) to provide essential upgrades that put the Royals over the top. It’s hard to do a better one-season job as a baseball ops chief than what Picollo did this season.
All-MLB: 2024 All-MLB First and Second Team winners
Doolittle’s take: Nobody asked me about these picks, but they read as if they did. I had the same first team. On the second team, I might have opted for Matt Chapman over Manny Machado at third base, but if that’s my one note, the selectors did a heck of a job. Or maybe I did.
Gold Gloves: Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. among 14 first-time Gold Glove winners
Doolittle’s take: For all the uncertainty in making defensive picks, the consensus defensive metric I used more or less mirrored the Gold Glove selections. I would have taken Chourio or Washington’s Jacob Young as one of the NL’s outfielders in place of Ian Happ.
Sports
Pirates ace Skenes wins NL Rookie of Year award
Published
12 hours agoon
November 18, 2024By
admin-
Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff WriterNov 18, 2024, 06:36 PM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
Paul Skenes was named the National League’s Rookie of the Year on Monday, beating out a loaded field after posting one of the best rookie campaigns for a pitcher in major league history.
While fellow finalists Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio had seasons that would have unquestionably warranted the honor almost any other year, Skenes’ rookie campaign was historic.
Hyped as a generational talent, Skenes, who debuted less than a year after being selected with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, surpassed expectations in his first taste of the big leagues to become the second Rookie of the Year award winner in Pirates history (Jason Bay, 2004) with 23 of the 30 first-place votes.
Skenes, 22, went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts across 133 innings. The 1.96 ERA was the lowest for any rookie with at least 20 starts in the Live Ball Era, dating to 1920, and the lowest in baseball in 2024 among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched. His 0.95 WHIP was tied for best in the National League. His 170 strikeouts were a franchise rookie record. His 4.3 fWAR ranked 10th among major-league pitchers. With the performance, he was named one of the three finalists for the NL Cy Young Award along with veterans Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler. That winner will be announced Wednesday.
On Monday, Merril finished second with the other seven first-place votes and Chourio in third behind Skenes. Merrill, a shortstop in the minors through last season, was the San Diego Padres‘ starting center fielder on opening day at just 20 years old. He excelled in all facets, finishing the season with a .292/.326/.500 slash line, 24 home runs, 90 RBI and 16 steals in 156 games while playing above-average defense. His 5.3 fWAR led all rookies.
Chourio, who doesn’t turn 21 until March, signed an $82 million extension last offseason before making major-league debut and, after a slow start, lived up to the investment. Chourio went on a tear after carrying a .201 batting average and .575 OPS through June 1, batting .305 with 16 home runs and an .888 OPS over his final 97 games. He finished the year with a .275/.327/.464 slash line, 21 home runs, 22 steals and 3.9 fWAR in 148 games, becoming the youngest player ever to post a 20/20 season.
There was little doubt Skenes was a major-league-caliber pitcher out of spring training, but the Pirates chose to not include him on their opening day roster. The rationale was simple: Skenes logged just 6 ⅔ innings as a pro in 2023 after he accumulated 122 ⅔ innings for LSU. So Skenes was sent to Triple A for more seasoning and dominated on a limited workload. In seven starts, Skenes posted a 0.99 ERA with 45 strikeouts across 27 ⅓ innings.
Finally, on May 11, Skenes made his major-league debut against the Chicago Cubs. He surrendered three runs with seven strikeouts over four innings. He would allow three or more earned runs just twice more over his final 22 starts.
His first 11 outings were so dominant (1.90 ERA, 89 strikeouts to 13 walks in 66 ⅓ innings and seven no-hit innings in his final start of the first half against the Milwaukee Brewers) that he was named the starting pitcher for the NL All-Star team, setting the stage for an electric first inning in Arlington against four of the sport’s best hitters. Skenes, the fifth rookie to ever start the exhibition, threw 16 pitches to Steven Kwan, Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. He walked Soto in an otherwise clean inning. He touched 100 mph and showcased his splinker — a splitter-sinker hybrid. The sequence, like every one of his starts, was must-watch television.
He pitched into the ninth inning for the first time as a pro in his first start out of the All-Star Game, taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss against the St. Louis Cardinals after giving up a run in the ninth. But Pittsburgh, despite adding at the trade deadline, fell out of the wild card race down the stretch.
The Pirates, cautious to not overwork Skenes, had him pitch on extra rest — either five or six days’ — in all of his starts. But he logged at least six innings in 16 of his 23 starts. He threw at least 100 pitches in nine of them. He closed his campaign with three strikeouts in two perfect innings against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on the penultimate day of the regular season.
Sports
Ichiro, CC among 14 newcomers on HOF ballot
Published
12 hours agoon
November 18, 2024By
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Associated Press
Nov 18, 2024, 12:18 PM ET
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Outfielder Ichiro Suzuki and pitcher CC Sabathia are among 14 new candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot released Monday, joining 14 holdovers led by reliever Billy Wagner.
Pitcher Félix Hernández, outfielder Carlos González and infielders Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramírez also are among the newcomers joined by reliever Fernando Rodney, second baseman Ian Kinsler, second baseman/outfielder Ben Zobrist, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, catchers Russell Martin and Brian McCann, and outfielders Curtis Granderson and Adam Jones.
Wagner received 284 votes and 73.8% in the 2024 balloting, five votes shy of the 75% needed when third baseman Adrian Beltré, catcher/first baseman Joe Mauer and first baseman Todd Helton were elected. Wagner will be on the ballot for the 10th and final time.
Other holdovers include steroids-tainted stars Alex Rodriguez (134 votes, 34.8%) and Manny Ramirez (125, 32.5%) along with Andruw Jones (237, 61.6%), Carlos Beltran (220, 57.1%), Chase Utley (111, 28.8%), Omar Vizquel (68, 17.7%), Jimmy Rollins (57, 14.8%), Bobby Abreu (57, 14.8%), Andy Pettitte (52, 13.5%), Mark Buehrle (32, 8.3%), Francisco Rodríguez (30, 7.8%), Torii Hunter (28, 7.3%) and David Wright (24, 6.2%).
Gary Sheffield was dropped after receiving 246 votes and 63.9% in his 10th and final year on the ballot. He will be eligible for consideration when the ballot is selected for the committee that considered contemporary era players in December 2025.
BBWAA members with 10 or more consecutive years of membership are eligible to vote. Ballots must be postmarked by Dec. 31 and results will be announced Jan. 23. Anyone elected will be inducted on July 27 along with anyone chosen Dec. 8 by the hall’s classic baseball committee considering eight players and managers whose greatest contributions to the sport were before 1980.
Suzuki in 2001 joined Fred Lynn in 1975 as the only players to win AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP in the same season. Suzuki was a two-time AL batting champion and 10-time Gold Glove winner, hitting .311 with 117 homers, 780 RBIs and 509 stolen bases with Seattle (2001-12, 2018-19), the New York Yankees (2012-14) and Miami (2015-17). He had a record 262 hits in 2004.
Sabathia was a six-time All-Star, won the 2007 AL Cy Young Award and a World Series title in 2009. He was 251-161 with a 3.74 ERA and 3,093 strikeouts, third among left-handers behind Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton, during 19 seasons with Cleveland (2001-08), Milwaukee (2008) and the New York Yankees (2009-19).
Hernández, the 2010 AL Cy Young winner and a six-time All-Star, won the 2010 and 2014 AL ERA titles. He was 169-136 with a 3.42 ERA and 2,524 strikeouts for Seattle from 2005-19. Hernández pitched the 23rd perfect game in major league history against Tampa Bay on Aug. 15, 2012.
González was a three-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove winner and the 2010 NL batting champion. He hit .285 with 234 homers, 785 RBIs and 122 stolen bases for Oakland (2008), Colorado (2009-18), Cleveland (2019) and the Chicago Cubs (2019).
Pedroia was a four-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, helping Boston to World Series titles in 2007 and 2013. He batted .299 with 140 homers, 725 and 138 steals for the Red Sox from 2006-19, winning the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year and 2008 AL MVP.
Hanley Ramírez was voted the 2006 NL Rookie of the Year and won the 2009 NL batting title, becoming a three-time All-Star. He hit .289 with 271 homers, 917 RBIs and 281 stolen bases for Boston (2005, 2015-18), the Florida and Miami Marlins (2006-12), Los Angeles Dodgers (2012-14) and Cleveland (2019).
Dick Allen, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant are being considered by the the classic era committee along with Tommy John, Steve Garvey, Ken Boyer and former Negro Leaguers John Donaldson and Vic Harris.
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