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NatWest has beaten expectations by recording a pre-tax profit of £1.8bn in the first three months of the year.

This is well ahead of forecasts by analysts of £1.6bn for the quarter and more than 50% higher than the £1.2bn recorded this time last year.

It follows rival bank Barclays posting a better-than-expected profit and its largest in at least 12 years.

NatWest Group, which includes the Royal Bank of Scotland and Ulster Bank, also saw its total income surge by more than a third over the period, bolstered by higher interest rates which makes it more expensive to borrow.

However, it said nearly £20bn was withdrawn from accounts during the period, which it partly blamed on its exit from the Republic of Ireland this year, following the decision to shut its entire Ulster Bank branch network in the region.

When this was excluded, £11bn was taken out of the bank, or 2.6% of its total customer deposits, which was put down to higher tax payments, competition for better savings rates and market volatility.

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It also reported a growing number of people using its fixed-term savings products in the first quarter as people looked to make the most of higher interest rates.

Chief executive Alison Rose said: “NatWest Group’s strong performance in the first quarter of 2023 is underpinned by our robust balance sheet, our high levels of capital and liquidity, and our well-diversified loan book.

“Through a period of significant disruption and uncertainty, we continue to stand alongside the people, families and businesses we serve, providing targeted support and growing our lending responsibly.

“Our disciplined and consistent approach to risk management means that arrears and impairments remain low.

“By monitoring customer behaviour and looking closely for signs of financial distress, we are able to put in place proactive measures to help those who are struggling right now and those who are worried about the future.”

The bank’s results demonstrate resilience in the face of high inflation, which squeezes household budgets and raises the
risks of borrowers falling behind on loan repayments.

High prices also increase the chances of Bank of England interest rates staying higher for longer, pushing up borrowing costs and further curbing consumer spending.

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Tariffs hit US economy forecast but the Fed unmoved by latest Trump threats with no change to interest rates

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Tariffs hit US economy forecast but the Fed unmoved by latest Trump threats with no change to interest rates

The US central bank has made no change to interest rates and warned the world’s biggest economy will see less growth and higher inflation due to tariffs.

The Federal Reserve, known as the Fed, held rates despite President Donald Trump calling its chair, Jerome Powell, a “stupid person” on Wednesday.

“Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I’d do a much better job than these people,” Mr Trump said.

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Despite appointing Mr Powell himself in 2017, Mr Trump has expressed anger towards the Fed chair at multiple points in the past for not bringing down borrowing costs through interest rate cuts.

In his own address to reporters, Mr Powell declined to hit back.

The tariff effect

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But Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of tariffs – taxes on imports – was again forecast to cause higher inflation and lower economic growth in the US.

The Fed’s predictions for inflation were upgraded to 3.1% for 2025 from 2.5% in December, while the outlook for US economic growth was downgraded to 1.4% from 2.1% in December.

The effect of those extra taxes on imports will take time to work its way through the system and show up in prices on shelves, the Fed chair said.

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Trump may strike Iran

An uncertain outlook

While the level of uncertainty peaked in April, when Mr Trump announced many of his tariffs, and has since fallen, it remains elevated, Mr Powell said.

The exact impact of the levies is unclear and depends on the levels they reach, he added.

Many of the country-specific tariffs have been paused for 90 days, which is currently due to end on 8 July.

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Despite this, the economy is in a “solid position”, Mr Powell said.

Interest rates were kept at 4.25%-4.5%. Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

A slowdown in the US economy can have an impact on the UK as the US is its largest trading partner.

On Thursday, it’s the turn of the UK central bank, the Bank of England, to make its latest interest rate determination, with no change also expected.

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Santander approaches TSB-owner about high street banking merger

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Santander approaches TSB-owner about high street banking merger

Santander has approached its fellow Spanish banking group Sabadell about a takeover of TSB, its British high street bank.

Sky News has learnt that Santander is among the parties which have expressed an interest in a potential deal, months after its boss denied that it was seeking to offload the UK’s fifth-largest retail bank.

City sources said on Wednesday that Santander had not tabled a formal offer for TSB, and was not certain to do so.

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However, the fact that it has contacted Sabadell about a possible transaction involving TSB suggests that Ana Botin, the Santander chair, may be open again to expanding its presence in Britain’s high street banking market.

The extent of the overlap between the two companies’ UK branch networks was unclear on Wednesday morning.

Santander, which like other banks has been engaged in an extensive branch closure programme for some time, now has roughly 350 UK branches, while TSB operates roughly half that number.

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The value that TSB, which was acquired by Sabadell in 2015 from Lloyds Banking Group, might attract in any takeover is also unclear.

Sabadell is in the middle of attempting to thwart a hostile takeover by rival Spanish bank BBVA – a deal revealed by Sky News last year – with a disposal of TSB said to be on the cards regardless of whether or not that bid is successful.

Ms Botin insisted that the UK remains a core market for Santander in the wake of speculation that she might sanction a sale of the business.

The company recently confirmed a Sky News report that Sir Tom Scholar, the former top Treasury official sacked by Liz Truss during her brief premiership, was joining the bank’s UK arm as its next chairman.

NatWest Group, which recently returned to full private ownership, was reported to have submitted an offer worth about £11bn for Santander UK.

No discussions are ongoing about such a deal.

NatWest, Barclays and HSBC have also been touted as potential suitors for TSB, although at least two of those three banks are thought to have little interest in bidding.

TSB was effectively created from the ashes of the 2008 financial crisis, when a vehicle set up to acquire assets from distressed banking groups lost out in an auction to a bid from the Co-operative Bank.

That deal fell through when it emerged that the Co-operative Bank itself was in a perilous financial state.

Sabadell explored a sale of TSB about five years ago, but opted to retain the business.

Goldman Sachs is thought to be advising Sabadell on the prospective sale of TSB.

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Responding to a report in the Financial Times on Sunday that TSB had been put up for sale, Banco Sabadell said: “Banco Sabadell confirms that it has received preliminary non-binding expressions of interest for the acquisition of the entire share capital of TSB Banking Group plc.

“Banco Sabadell will assess any potential binding offer it may receive.”

Santander declined to comment.

The TSB process emerged just hours after Sky News had revealed that Metro Bank, the high street lender, had been approached by Pollen Street Capital, the private equity firm, about a possible takeover.

The absence of a statement from either party implies that the approach was rejected and that Pollen Street has abandoned its interest, at least temporarily.

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Inflation slows to 3.4% but no Bank of England rate cut expected

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Inflation slows to 3.4% but no Bank of England rate cut expected

Inflation eased to an annual rate of 3.4% in May, according to official figures released this morning, but the Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold despite that.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the consumer prices index measure eased from 3.5% the previous month.

It said that despite upwards pressure on prices from food and clothing, the decline was driven by falls in airfare prices following Easter.

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The headline figure also reflected a small downwards correction to ONS inflation data ahead of April related to vehicle excise duty calculations.

ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys said: “A variety of counteracting price movements meant inflation was little changed in May.

FOOD INFLATION AT 15-MONTH HIGH


James Sillars, business reporter

James Sillars

Business and economics reporter

@SkyNewsBiz

Today’s headline inflation number suggests a flat picture for price growth overall.

But there is one stat that households will already be familiar with after a visit to the supermarket.

A jump in some food prices has been noticeable, with the ONS flagging a leap in its food and non-alcoholic drinks measure of inflation to a 15-month high.

Why the rise? Chocolate has spiked significantly this year due to a cocoa shortage blamed on poor harvests. Meat, particularly beef, has shot up on high global demand and rising costs.

The food and non-alcoholic drinks category has been on the rise for five months in a row. But the good news is that high rates of sales promotions by chains – discounts – are helping keep a lid on overall grocery bills.

“Air fares fell this month, compared with a large rise at the same time last year, as the timing of Easter and school holidays affected pricing. Meanwhile, motor fuel costs also saw a drop.

More on Inflation

“These were partially offset by rising food prices, particularly items such as chocolates and meat products. The cost of furniture and household goods, including fridge freezers and vacuum cleaners, also increased.”

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Businesses facing fresh energy cost threat

Forecasts suggest that inflation will tick up over the second half of the year – with effects from Donald Trump’s trade war and rising commodity costs amid events in the Middle East among the concerns ahead for the Bank of England.

It has adopted a “careful” and “gradual” approach to interest rate cuts as a result.

That is despite weakening employment data, reported earlier this month, which showed a tick up in the official jobless rate and a 109,000 reduction in payrolled employment.

Other elements of the inflation data are also supportive of an argument for rate cuts.

Core CPI inflation – a measure that strips out volatile elements such as energy and food – eased from 3.8% in April to 3.5% while services inflation tumbled sharply to 4.7% from 5.4% the previous month.

Nevertheless, the Bank is widely expected to leave Bank rate on hold on Thursday following the June meeting of its rate-setting committee.

LSEG data showed after the inflation data that financial markets currently see two more interest rate cuts by the year’s end.

Risks to prices ahead will come from a sustained Israel-Iran war pushing up oil and gas prices but there have been different views among policymakers over whether the trade war will result in inflation or not.

As such, the minutes of the Bank’s meeting will be closely scrutinised for hints on whether rate cut caution is easing.

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