Tesla’s biggest bull with $2,000 price target sees robotaxi service launching ‘soon’
Ark Invest, arguably Tesla’s biggest bull with a $2,000 price target on the TSLA stock, put together a weighted average prediction for when Tesla would launch its robotaxi service.
Recently, Tesla has made it clear that it is virtually betting the house on self-driving.
CEO Elon Musk even went as far as to say that Tesla solving self-driving is the difference between Tesla being worth trillions or “basically nothing.”
As we have previously reported, Musk believes that not many are seeing the value in Tesla eventually pushing self-driving capability to its fleet of millions of vehicles through over-the-air software updates. However, we think he might be confusing people not understanding the value with people having serious doubts about Tesla being able to do it in the first place.
One group that does believe it is Ark Invest, an investment firm that has long held one of the highest price targets on Tesla’s stock.
The firm, which owns over $1 billion worth of Tesla shares, has a $2,000 price target on the stock, which represents a massive upside over the current $160 price.
But a majority of that upside is based on Tesla delivering its long-held promise of releasing its robotaxi service to its existing fleet.
In a recent update to its Tesla model, Ark says that it is confident Tesla will soon launch its robotaxi service and even puts a prediction that it should happen in late 2024:
ARK has grown increasingly confident that Tesla will launch a robotaxi service soon. Our updated Monte Carlo model includes a range of launch dates, with late 2024 as the weighted average of all cases, as shown below.
That’s based on a simulation of the commercialization of Tesla’s robotaxi service:
Musk himself said just last week that he expects Tesla to achieve “full autonomy” this year, but as we reported, it’s not clear what he means by “full autonomy.”
Ark’s definition is clearer. They are talking about Tesla releasing a software update making its whole fleet of millions of cars produced since 2016 fully self-driving and offering robotaxi services through a new Uber-like app.
Electrek’s Take
That would indeed be a game changer that would create a lot of value for Tesla, and the end of 2024 still leaves more than a year to achieve it.
But as an FSD beta tester, I have difficulties imagining Tesla going from the current FSD beta to a robotaxi service only through software updates.
It’s not impossible, but I find it hard to believe. Although, the “start of commercialization” would only mean that – the start. I can see Tesla achieving some level of self-driving capacity that could enable robotaxi services in some geofenced areas by then, but that isn’t likely to be pushed to millions of vehicles like Musk has promised for years.
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Environment
Podcast: China reaches EV tipping point, Tesla retreats, some slack with tax credit, and more
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss China reaching the EV tipping point, Tesla’s retreat in Europe, EV buyers receiving some tax credit relief, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:
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Cadillac is back and selling a surprising number of electric vehicles in the US. With a full lineup of electric SUVs, Cadillac now claims to be the leading luxury EV brand in the US. Can it keep it up even after the $7,500 federal tax credit expires?
After launching seven new electric vehicles this year, GM claimed that Cadillac became the leading luxury EV brand by market share. However, that doesn’t include Tesla due to its “pricing structure.”
Cadillac is coming off its best first-half sales since 2008, selling more vehicles across all 50 states. Nearly one in four Cadillacs sold in the US this year were EVs.
GM’s luxury brand is now selling more electric vehicles than some of its biggest rivals, including Porsche, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Rivian, and Volvo.
According to the latest data from Cox Automotive, Cadillac sold over 11,700 EVs in Q2, up 62% compared to last year. Through the first six months of the year, it has sold nearly 20,000 electric vehicles. In comparison, Porsche has sold almost 7,200 EVs in the US, Mercedes sold about 8,000, and Audi has sold just over 11,500.
With an electric SUV in nearly every segment, including the entry-level Optiq, a midsize Lyriq, a three-row Vistiq, and the even larger Escalade IQ and IQL models, Cadillac is seeing an influx of buyers from other brands.
Cadillac prepares for the EV tax credit to expire
Around 70% of Cadillac’s EV buyers are from other brands, according to GM, and about 10% are former Tesla drivers. With big policy changes coming under the Trump administration, Cadillac, like the entire industry, will likely face some hurdles.
The administration already raised tariffs on imported vehicles and other auto parts, and at the end of September, the $7,500 federal EV tax credit is set to expire.
In response to the changes, many automakers are shifting back to hybrid and gas-powered vehicles. Cadillac is no exception.
“They’ll have to have both for a number of years now,” according to Sam Fiorani, the vice president of AutoForecast Solutions. Fiorani explained (via The New York Times) that “The gas-powered vehicles make the money, and the EVs bring them a new market.”
Cadillac was initially expected to have an all-EV lineup by the end of the decade. Thanks to the policy changes, Cadillac could continue offering hybrid and ICE vehicles for several more years.
Fiorani said that although GM planned to retire the gas-powered Escalade, it’s now due for a refresh that will be sold “well into the next decade.”
Earlier this year, Cadillac’s global vice president, John Roth, said during a media briefing that the company was in a better position than most with the policy changes.
All Cadillac vehicles are built in the US, except the Optiq, which is built in Mexico. According to Roth, the policy changes will have “very limited impact, if you will, on the Cadillac brand.” If anything, Roth said, it could be an opportunity for the luxury automaker.
If you’re looking to get ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiration, we can help you get started. Check out our links below to find Cadillac’s electric SUVs in your area.
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Australia Post is advancing its commitment to achieve Net Zero emissions across its operations by 2050 with the introduction of 36 new Mercedes-Benz eVito electric vans, expanding its existing fleet of over 5,000 EVs already in active service.
With an efficient 60 kWh battery and 85 kW (about 115 hp) electric motor, Mercedes’ eVito electric van is ideally suited to the sort of stop-and-go work of a delivery vehicle. What’s more the company’s factory upfit program, Merceds-Benz Vans Courier Solutions, makes it easier than ever for delivery and contractor fleets to spec out their vans exactly the way they need them.
And, even though the eVito’s 60 kWh battery is rated to “just” 261 km (162 miles), the sort of low-speed, high-regen duty cycle Australia Post is going to be putting it through should mean drivers see much better real world range than that — which is precisely the sort of information this 36 van pilot is meant to uncover.
“This is our largest electric van trial to date,” explains Australia Post Chief Sustainability Officer, Richard Pittard. “It’s a meaningful step forward as we continue building a modern, sustainable delivery network that meets the evolving needs of our customers while reducing our environmental impact.”
Australia Post currently operates more than 3,600 three-wheeled electric delivery vehicles (EDVs), 1,500 e-bikes, nearly 200 UBCO DUTY electric motorcycles, and several Mitsubishi eFUSO electric box vans at its larger logistics centers.
The new eVito vans, once deployed at scale, will operate primarily in highly populated metro areas, where their positive impact on local air quality will be felt by the greatest number of people, and their respiratory health, as well.
Electrek’s Take
This kind of deployment should be exciting to EV enthusiasts for a number of tried-and-true reasons, but this one is particularly exciting to Americans because we have an Administration actively pretending that electric postal vehicles aren’t ready for prime time. The success of programs like this one from Australia Post are just more egg in the face of these anti-EV clowns, and few things make me happier.
You can check out the official Mercedes-Benz Vans Australia eVito specs and measurements in the detailed brochure, below, then scroll on down to the comments and let us know what you think of MB’s baby Sprinter.
Mercedes eVito Specs
SOURCE | IMAGES: Australia Post.
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