Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI attends the annual Allen and Co. Sun Valley Media and Technology Conference at the Sun Valley Resort in Sun Valley, Idaho, U.S., on July 8, 2025.
David A. Grogan | CNBC
OpenAI is in talks with investors about a potential stock sale at a valuation of roughly $500 billion, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter.
The talks are in early stages and would involve a secondary sale with shares sold by current and former employees, said the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions are confidential. Thrive Capital, an investor in OpenAI, could lead the potential round, the sources said.
Bloomberg was first to report on the latest talks.
OpenAI’s valuation has been on a continuous upswing since the artificial intelligence startup launched ChatGPT in late 2022 and quickly established itself as the leader in generative AI. The company announced a $40 billion funding round in March at a $300 billion, by far the largest amount ever raised by a private tech company.
Last week, OpenAI announced its most recent $8.3 billion tranche tied to that funding round.
OpenAI released two open-weight language models on Tuesday for the first time since it rolled out GPT-2 in 2019. The models aim to serve as lower-cost options that developers and researchers can easily run and customize, OpenAI said.
The company said earlier this week that ChatGPT was about to hit 700 million weekly active users.
OpenAI rival Anthropic, meanwhile, is in talks to secure between $3 billion and $5 billion in new funding led by Iconiq Capital at a potential $170 billion valuation, up from $61.5 billion in March.
CNBC previously reported that OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue is projected to top $20 billion by year-end, up from $10 billion in June.
![Chevy Bolt EUV goes full Boat Mode in Texas floodwaters [video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/08/bolt_flood.png?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Electric cars don’t have intakes and exhausts, so they can’t get hydrolocked in deep water the way ICE-powered cars can – but that doesn’t make them amphibious. Nobody told this Texan Chevy Bolt EUV owner that, and when they got caught on the wrong side of the floodwaters, they licked the stamp and sent it!
The recent catastrophic flooding in Texas has brought unimaginable tragedies and hardships to thousands of people who unquestionably deserve better, and living through something like that can lead people to make some rash decisions (I made it through the aftermaths of Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina, AMA). Rash decisions like pulling up to a tunnel flooded in nearly three feet of water, and deciding to stand on the gas.
Think I’m exaggerating? Watch this Chevy Bolt EUV go full “Boat Mode” as its driver decides that dealing with whatever unseen obstacle or deadly live wires concealed by the floodwaters are less annoying than having to find an alternative route for yourself.
Submerging an EV that wasn’t designed for it (or even a Cybertruck, which allegedly was), isn’t exactly advisable. In addition to the underwater threats, submerging the skateboard in water could damage sensitive electrical connectors, compromise battery seals, and cause shorts in circuit boards over time.
“Even more critically, water ingress into high-voltage systems can pose serious safety risks, including electrical faults or, in rare cases, thermal events,” writes Jonathan Lopez, over at GM Authority. “Although the Bolt EUV in this instance completed its soggy journey successfully, long-term effects may still emerge.”
In other words: don’t try this at home.
Electrek’s Take
Like, don’t try this at home … but it’s pretty awesome.
SOURCE | IMAGES: stormchaserhtx, via GM Authority.
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Georgia BRIGHT, a statewide initiative to deliver affordable solar, kicked off its “No-Cost Solar Plan” in Atlanta yesterday, giving qualified homeowners a shot at roughly 400 fully prepaid rooftop-solar systems with zero upfront or maintenance costs. However, Georgia Bright’s No-Cost Solar Plan may lose its $156 million in grant money if the EPA steals back the Solar for All program’s entire $7 billion, which funded it.
On Earth Day (April 22) 2024, the Georgia BRIGHT Communities Coalition, including lead applicant Capital Good Fund, along with coalition member cities, Atlanta, Savannah, and Decatur, and dozens of other Georgia stakeholders, was allocated $156 million from Solar for All to bring solar to thousands of households statewide between now and mid-2029.
Families that earn 80% or less of their county’s Area Median Income can enter a drawing for the No-Cost Solar Plan now; a second drawing for another 400 systems is set for spring 2026.
“As the cost of living increases across our most vulnerable communities, this program will deliver significant savings to the households that need it most,” said Alicia Brown, director of Georgia BRIGHT.
Those savings are already showing up. Pilot participant Christine Difeliciantonio saw her power bill plunge on her Columbus home from $224 in June 2024 to $50 in June 2025 after her panels came online, and she says the added resilience eases her mind during storms.
Nonprofits are benefiting, too. Trees Atlanta had 140 panels installed on their headquarters last November in the pilot program; the rooftop array went live in March and is on track to save about $3,000 a year, the carbon equivalent of planting 28,000 trees over 25 years.
What’s next for Georgia BRIGHT …
Georgia BRIGHT’s other programs in the works include its Residential Solar Savings Plan, offering custom rooftop installs with no upfront cost and guaranteeing households at least 20% savings on day one after factoring in the modest monthly payments. Georgia BRIGHT is also developing Community Benefit Solar, which lets businesses, houses of worship, and apartment buildings go solar so long as they share part of the financial benefits – think grocery gift cards, help with utility bills, discounted daycare, or rent relief – with eligible neighbors for five years. Finally, a Utility-Led Community Solar initiative will send grants to local utilities so they can run shared-solar programs designed specifically for low-income customers.
These programs really make a difference in a state like Georgia, which doesn’t offer any other solar incentives.
… if the EPA doesn’t steal its money
The New York Times reported today that the Trump-led EPA is drafting letters to claw back the entire $7 billion Solar for All pot from 49 states, plus 11 nonprofit groups and Native American tribes. The grant money was awarded under President Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. According to the Times‘ sources, the EPA plans to send termination notices this week, effectively erasing solar savings for nearly a million low-income families before the panels ever land on their roofs.
Legal groups are already gearing up for the fight. “If leaders in the Trump administration move forward with this unlawful attempt to strip critical funding from communities across the United States, we will see them in court,” Kym Meyer of the Southern Environmental Law Center told the Times.
If the EPA pulls the trigger on this cruel, senseless plan to steal solar from lower-income communities, it wouldn’t just kneecap Georgia’s new program – it would pull the rug out from under low-income solar projects nationwide. The fight over Solar for All is officially on. How about that energy emergency that Trump declared, eh?
Read more: This metro Atlanta factory roof is now a solar record-breaker
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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