Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
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A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
Electric motorcycles are already known for their instant torque and quiet performance, but now one electric dirt bike has proven it can do something gas bikes can’t: breathe where combustion engines can’t. Stark Future and Swiss mountaineer-rider Jiri Zak just made history by setting a new high-altitude world record on the world’s highest active volcano, riding a fully electric Stark VARG EX up to an astonishing 6,721 meters (22,051 feet) above sea level.
The record-setting ride took place on Los Ojos del Salado, a massive stratovolcano straddling the Chile–Argentina border in the Atacama Desert. It’s the tallest active volcano in the world and one of the most brutal environments on Earth to test the limits of man and machine. Sub-zero temperatures, violent weather, thin air, and volcanic terrain have made it the proving ground for record-breaking attempts by companies like Porsche, Yamaha, and Jeep since the early 2000s.
But this time, it wasn’t a combustion engine motorcycle powering the ascent, but rather a battery-powered motorcycle.
Stark’s electric VARG EX conquers the thin air
Riding at nearly 7,000 meters means serious altitude sickness risks for humans – and serious performance losses for gas engines. But that’s exactly where the Stark VARG EX shines. Without relying on air-fuel combustion, the VARG EX can deliver full torque even in oxygen-starved conditions. It also simplifies high-altitude riding by eliminating gear shifting, relying instead on electric driveline efficiency and seamless power delivery.
Jiri Zak, the expedition’s lead rider and a seasoned alpinist, put it best. “Two years ago this was just a dream – do it on an electric bike, where combustion loses its breath. Ojos is unforgiving; one mistake can cost your life. That’s why I’m here with a team I trust and a motorcycle that keeps delivering power in thin air.”
Zak’s attempt was logged on November 30, 2025, with GPS units that were sealed in advance to ensure authenticity. The full data is now undergoing third-party verification, with Guinness World Records authentication in process.
Stark and Zak aimed to push a motorcycle – regardless of the powertrain, electric or gas – higher than ever before. And they did.
The previous high-altitude motorcycling records involved heavily modified combustion bikes operating at the ragged edge of their capability. But the Stark VARG EX performed the feat right out of the box, with no major mechanical changes. That’s a serious milestone for electric mobility.
“This was never about a standalone number,” said Stark Future CEO Anton Wass. “It’s about proving that electric is not a compromise; it takes you further than any other combustion bike could. The VARG platform can operate at the edge of the atmosphere.”
Built for the extremes
To make the record possible, Stark assembled a team of logistics experts, mountain safety personnel, and videographers to document the expedition. The crew spent multiple days acclimating, scouting line choices, and studying energy management strategies for the high-altitude ride.
Weather windows were tight. Battery thermal regulation was crucial. Traction was unpredictable. Zak even described one of the most intense moments on the mountain, returning from the summit, “The hardest moment was the traverse to Argentina Pass. The balcony was gone. The wind and snow had erased my old track. Nature had taken the path back.”
Even with the challenges, the VARG EX maintained its composure, and its performance, throughout the climb.
A moonshot mentality
With a slogan like “Next stop? The moon!” it’s clear Stark is doing more than just chasing off-road trophies. The company is positioning itself as a symbol of what electric powertrains can accomplish in terrain where gas bikes falter.
Stark Future, founded in 2020 in Barcelona, has rapidly become the most talked-about name in the electric motocross scene. Their flagship VARG model claims to be the most powerful motocross bike ever built, and the EX variant used in this record attempt is the company’s enduro-specific version.
Stark’s vision is about pushing the motorcycle industry toward a more sustainable, electric future. And with this record-setting ride, they’ve just planted an electric flag higher than any motorcycle has ever gone before.
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The US solar industry just delivered another huge quarter, installing 11.7 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in Q3 2025. That makes it the third-largest quarter on record and pushes total solar additions this year past 30 GW – despite the Trump administration’s efforts to kneecap clean energy.
According to the new “US Solar Market Insight Q4 2025” report from Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, 85% of all new power added to the grid during the first nine months of the Trump administration came from solar and storage. And here’s the twist: Most of that growth – 73% – happened in red states.
Eight of the top 10 states for new installations fall into that category, including Texas, Indiana, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Utah, Kentucky, and Arkansas. Utah jumped into the top 10 this quarter thanks to two big utility-scale projects totaling more than 1 GW.
But the report also flags major uncertainty ahead. Federal actions, including a July memo from the Department of the Interior (DOI), have slowed or stalled the approvals pipeline for utility-scale solar and storage. Without clarity on permitting timelines, Wood Mackenzie’s long-term utility-scale forecast through 2030 remains basically unchanged from last quarter.
“This record-setting quarter for solar deployment shows that the market is continuing to turn to solar to meet rising demand,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, SEIA’s president and CEO. She added that strong growth in red states underscores how decisively the market is shifting toward clean energy. “But unless this administration reverses course, the future of clean, affordable, and reliable solar and storage will be frozen by uncertainty, and Americans will continue to see their energy bills go up.”
Two new solar module factories opened this year in Louisiana and South Carolina, adding a combined 4.7 GW of capacity. That brings the total new US module manufacturing capacity added in 2025 to 17.7 GW. With a new wafer facility coming online in Michigan in Q3, the US can now produce every major component of the solar module supply chain.
“We expect 250 GW of solar to be installed from 2025 to 2030,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report. “But the US solar industry has more potential. With rising power demand across the country, solar could do even more if current constraints were eased.”
SEIA also noted that, following an analysis of EIA data, it found that more than 73 GW of solar projects across the US are stuck in permitting limbo and at risk of politically motivated delays or cancellations.
Read more: EIA: Solar + storage soar as fossil fuels stall through September 2025
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