Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
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A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
Environment
Aptera (SEV) shows off assembly line for solar electric ‘car’, updates on battery and testing
Solar electric vehicle startup Aptera Motors released a new update today, giving us a first look at its validation vehicle assembly line, along with progress on battery production and efficiency testing as it moves closer to its goal of low-volume production.
The update comes just weeks after the company began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol $SEV.
The move, along with a deal to sell some shares, secured access to up to $75 million in financing for Aptera, which was struggling financially.
It enabled Aptera to get busy, and now the company has released an update about its progress over the last few weeks.
You can watch the full update video here:
On the personnel front, highlighting an expanded team across engineering, operations, and manufacturing. In the video, several new hires introduced themselves, including directors of supply chain and various engineers, signaling that the company is trying to staff up for the next phase.
But the meat of the update is on the manufacturing floor.
Aptera’s Validation Assembly Line
Steve Fambro, Aptera’s co-CEO, walked us through the facility, which he says is now “buzzing with activity”, with a few interesting time-lapse videos that showed progress.
The company has begun the buildout of its validation vehicle assembly line.
Unlike the hand-assembled prototypes we’ve seen in the past, Aptera says this new setup is designed to operate as a “normal vehicle manufacturing line” with a multi-step process. This includes receiving, inventory, kitting, and progressive installation of vehicle systems at individual stations.
At the heart of this new line is a large-scale precision assembly fixture. This is a critical piece of equipment for Aptera’s unique two-piece composite body structure.
Fambro explained the importance of this fixture:
“It’s a major step forward from the original hand-assembled approach we used on the BinC (Body in Carbon) for the first three validation vehicles. With this new fixture, we can now assemble BinCs with far greater repeatability and tighter control over final geometry.”
We also got a look at the frames, which Aptera says are robust and optimized for weight and strength.
Battery Production and ‘Gemini’ Testing
Another significant update is the battery assembly. Aptera’s battery partner, CTNS, is now on-site building battery modules.
This is the first time CTNS has assembled modules directly in Aptera’s facility. The video shows what look to be clean, precise modules ready for integration. This is a good sign for the supply chain, as the battery pack is often a major bottleneck for EV startups.
On the testing front, Aptera has been conducting internal efficiency evaluations with “Gemini,” its third production-intent vehicle.
The company claims preliminary results from combined drive cycles (high speed, stop-and-go, urban) are “encouraging.” They plan to move to more formal regulatory testing soon with the new and bigger fleet of validation vehicles.
Electrek’s Take
This is a nice progress update from Aptera. I am cautiously starting to get hope that Aptera might end up delivering a few of these vehicles.
Now, let’s be honest, there’s still a lot of work to do. The assembly line that Aptera showed today is clearly a work in progress.
$75 million might sound like a lot, but it’s nothing in the automotive manufacturing industry.
The question remains whether that capital will be enough to get them through this validation phase and into meaningful low-volume production.
As a disclosure, I have a small amount of Aptera shares from the crowdfunding days. I’ve always said I don’t see a significant chance of success, but I wish it, as I love the company’s ethos of efficiency.
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![Kia previews the EV2, its most affordable electric vehicle yet [Images]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/12/Kia-EV2-teaser-affordable-EV.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
With its official debut just around the corner, Kia offered a closer look at the EV2. The new electric SUV will be Kia’s smallest, most affordable EV to date.
Kia confirms the EV2 will debut as its most affordable EV
Kia confirmed that the EV2, its new electric B-segment SUV, will debut at the Brussels Motor Show next month. The EV2 will sit below the EV3 as Kia’s new entry-level electric car.
“With the EV2, we reaffirm our commitment to make electric mobility truly accessible to a broader audience – without compromise,” Kia Europe president and CEO, Marc Hedrich, said on Tuesday.
The EV2 will be built at Kia’s sole European manufacturing plant in Zilina, Slovakia, to speed up production and deliveries.
Designed, developed, and soon to be made in Europe, Kia is confident that the EV2 will play a “pivotal role” in the shift to cleaner, more sustainable travel.
Although it’s the smallest EV in its lineup, Kia promises it won’t feel like it when you’re inside. The interior design is inspired by “a picnic in the city,” according to Kia, with flexible seating and smart storage options that can open up to create a retreat from the busy city life.
Kia has yet to reveal prices or final specs, but given the EV3 is around 4,300 mm (169.3″) long, the EV2 is expected to be slightly shorter at about 4,000 mm (157″).
That’s about the length of the Hyundai Inster (3,825 mm). However, previous spy shots show the EV2 has a more upright stance than the Inster, closer to Kia’s larger SUVs, like the EV9 and EV5.
The EV3 is on sale in Europe, starting at about €36,000 ($42,000), so EV2 prices will likely start at closer to €30,000 ($35,000).
Based on Hyundai’s E-GMP platform, the Kia EV3 is available with 58.3 kWh and 81.4 kWh battery options, providing a WLTP range of 410 km (255 miles) and 560 km (348 miles), respectively. The EV2 is likely to be offered with similar battery pack options.
Kia will unveil the EV2 during a press conference on Friday, January 9, 2026, starting at 10:40 am (CET). Check back for more info leading up to the event. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
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Tesla appears to be preparing to introduce yet another new camera sensor to its hardware suite, according to code found in the automaker’s latest firmware. While hardware improvements are generally good news, this latest discovery adds to the mounting evidence that Tesla is continuously moving the goalposts for self-driving, potentially leaving millions of owners with “older” hardware in the dust… again.
The discovery comes from longtime Tesla hacker and researcher @greentheonly, who frequently digs into Tesla’s software updates to find unannounced features and hardware changes.
According to Green, Tesla’s firmware now references a new sensor model: IMX00N.
Looks like Tesla is changing (upgrading?) cameras in (some?) new cars produced.
Where as HW4 to date used exterior cameras with IMX963, now they (might potentially) have something called IMX00N.
This would ostensibly replace or complement the Sony IMX963 sensors currently used in Hardware 4.0 (AI4) vehicles. The IMX963 is the 5-megapixel sensor that replaced the 1.2-megapixel Aptina sensors found in Hardware 3 cars just two years ago.
We don’t have the specifications for the “IMX00N” yet. It could be a custom Sony SKU for Tesla or a placeholder name for a new image sensor.
Here are the specs comparisons between the camera sensors in HW3 and AI4 Tesla vehicles:
| Specification | Hardware 3.0 (HW3) | Hardware 4.0 (AI4) | Technical Implication |
| Sensor Resolution | 1.2 Megapixels (1280 × 960) | ~5 Megapixels (2896 × 1876) | 4X Data Density. Allows detection of objects at >300m and digital cropping. |
| Sensor Model | Onsemi AR0136AT | Sony IMX490 (Estimated) | Flagship Automotive Sensor. Simultaneous HDR & LFM. |
| Color Filter Array | RCCC (Red-Clear-Clear-Clear) | RGGB (Red-Green-Green-Blue) | Semantic Fidelity. True color perception for signs, lights, and road markings. |
| Dynamic Range | ~110 dB | >120 dB (Single Exposure) | Contrast Mastery. No motion artifacts in tunnel exits or night driving. |
| Data Interface | FPD-Link III (Likely) | GMSL2 or MIPI A-PHY | High Bandwidth. Supports uncompressed 5MP streams at high frame rates. |
| Front Cameras | 3 (Main, Narrow, Wide) | 2 (Main, Wide) | Optical Simplification. Digital zoom replaces the physical telephoto lens. |
| Lens Coating | Standard | Deep Red IR Cut / Anti-Glare | Glare Mitigation. Reduces blinding from headlights and sun. |
| Heaters | Passive (Waste Heat) | Active Heating Elements | All-Weather Resilience. Rapid defogging and de-icing. |
| Retrofit | N/A | Impossible for HW3 cars | Fleet Fragmentation. HW3 cars are permanently hardware-limited. |
Electrek’s Take
Of course, you would expect Tesla to improve its vehicles, including its sensor suite, gradually. It is a good thing in and of itself.
There are three problems with Tesla updating its hardware suite for autonomous driving:
- It promised to all owners since 2016 that their vehicles have all the required hardware to achieve “Full Self-Driving,” and at the time, CEO Elon Musk said that it would mean “unsupervised self-driving.”
- It has yet to achieve that, and it promised to offer free hardware retrofit if needed, but it has yet to offer those.
- When Tesla launches a new autonomous driving hardware suite, it rapidly puts less effort into software that works with its previous hardware suite.
If the current cameras in HW4 (let alone HW3) are sufficient for Level 4 autonomy, why is Tesla spending resources to integrate a new sensor? The most logical answer is that the current sensors have limitations, whether it’s glare handling, low-light performance, or resolution, that limit the system’s reliability.
If that’s the case, can we expect Tesla to update all the vehicles that are supposed to have the hardware to reach level 4? I wouldn’t bet on it.
CEO Elon Musk already admitted that the HW3 computer won’t support it back in January 2025, almost a year ago, and instead of announcing a solution, Tesla owners were only promised a “mini version” of FSD v14, which itself is not the promised unsupervised self-driving.
At this point, it’s hard to put hope on Tesla doing the right thing here.
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