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Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.

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A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.

Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.

The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.

Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.

“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.

“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”

“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.

Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.

“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.

India's oil demand is going 'gangbusters,' RBC's Helima Croft says

“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”

Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.

But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:

“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.

“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”

But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.

Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.

OPEC+ weight

Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.

OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.

“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”

Oil is unlikely to hit $100 per barrel well before the end of the year, says Truist

The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.

As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”

The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.  

“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.

Biden’s bid

Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.

Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”

But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.

“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.

“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”

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China overhauls EV charging: 100,000 ultra-fast public stations by 2027

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China overhauls EV charging: 100,000 ultra-fast public stations by 2027

China just laid out a plan to roll out over 100,000 ultra-fast EV charging stations by 2027 – and they’ll all be open to the public.

The National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) joint notice, issued on Monday, asks local authorities to put together construction plans for highway service areas and prioritize the ones that see 40% or more usage during holiday travel rushes.

The NDRC notes that China’s ultra-fast EV charging infrastructure needs upgrading as more 800V EVs hit the road. Those high-voltage platforms can handle super-fast charging in as little as 10 to 30 minutes, but only if the charging hardware is up to speed.

China had 31.4 million EVs on the road at the end of 2024 – nearly 9% of the country’s total vehicle fleet. But charging access is still catching up. As of May 2025, there were 14.4 million charging points, or roughly 1 for every 2.2 EVs.

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To keep the grid running smoothly, China wants new chargers to be smart, with dynamic pricing to incentivize off-peak charging and solar and storage to power the charging stations.

To make the business side work, the government is pushing for 10-year leases for charging station operators, and it’s backing the buildout with local government bonds.

The NDRC emphasized that the DC fast chargers built will be open to the public. This is a big deal because a lot of fast chargers in China aren’t. For example, BYD’s new megawatt chargers aren’t open to third-party vehicles.

As of September 2024, China had expanded its charging infrastructure to 11.4 million EV chargers, but only 3.3 million were public.

Read more: California now has nearly 50% more EV chargers than gas nozzles


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Two charged in $650 million global crypto scam that promised 300% returns

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Two charged in 0 million global crypto scam that promised 300% returns

A U.S. Justice Department logo or seal showing Justice Department headquarters, known as “Main Justice,” is seen behind the podium in the Department’s headquarters briefing room before a news conference with the Attorney General in Washington, January 24, 2023.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Federal prosecutors have charged two men in connection with a sprawling cryptocurrency investment scheme that defrauded victims out of more than $650 million.

The indictment, unsealed in the District of Puerto Rico, accuses Michael Shannon Sims, 48, of Georgia and Florida, and Juan Carlos Reynoso, 57, of New Jersey and Florida, of operating and promoting OmegaPro, an international crypto multi-level marketing scheme that promised investors 300% returns over 16 months through foreign exchange trading.

“This case exposes the ruthless reality of modern financial crime,” said the Internal Revenue Service’s Chief of Criminal Investigations Guy Ficco. “OmegaPro promised financial freedom but delivered financial ruin.”

From 2019 to 2023, Sims, Reynoso and their co-conspirators allegedly lured thousands of victims worldwide to purchase “investment packages” using cryptocurrency, falsely claiming the funds would be safely managed by elite forex traders, the Department of Justice said.

Prosecutors said the pair flaunted their wealth through social media and extravagant events — including projecting the OmegaPro logo onto the Burj Khalifa, Dubai’s tallest building — to convince investors the operation was legitimate.

A video posted to the company’s LinkedIn page shows guests in evening attire posing for photos and watching the spectacle in Dubai.

Read more CNBC tech news

In reality, authorities allege, OmegaPro was a pyramid-style fraud.

When the company later claimed it had suffered a hack, the defendants told victims they had transferred their funds to a new platform called Broker Group, the DOJ said. Users were never able to withdraw their money from either platform.

The two men face charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, each carrying a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.

The Justice Department, FBI, IRS-Criminal Investigation, and Homeland Security Investigations led the multiagency investigation, with help from international partners.

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Tesla forced to refund $10,000 FSD payment and 0% interest on Cybertruck

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Tesla forced to refund ,000 FSD payment and 0% interest on Cybertruck

Tesla is starting to experience some consequences for misleading Full Self Driving customers – at least that’s the finding of one arbitration ruling that has Tesla refunding one customer $10,000 plus legal fees for failing to deliver on their promises. Find out more on today’s legally challenging episode of Quick Charge!

An arbitration “court” found that Tesla misled customers with its Full Self Driving product, and has now been forced to refund at least one person’s $10,000 payment (plus legal fees) for the not-quite autonomous driving software. France, too, is piling on claims of deceptive business practices – but there’s some good news for FSD fans! If you’re still willing to pay for it, Tesla will thrown in 0% financing on a brand new Cybertruck.

Check out the relevant links, below, to learn more.

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

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New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.

Got news? Let us know!
Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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