Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
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A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
EcoFlow’s extended Prime Day savings take up to 60% off TRAIL compact power stations at new lows from $104
As part of its extended Prime Day Sale, EcoFlow is continuing to offer the best rates yet on its new TRAIL series of power stations, with extra sitewide savings too. You can pick up the TRAIL 200 DC 60,000mAh Portable Power Station at $103.55 shipped, after using the code 25PDFAFF at checkout for an additional 5% off, while the TRAIL 300 DC 90,000mAh Portable Power Station is down at $141.55 shipped, after using the same code. What’s more, you’ll be getting a free RAPID 30W GaN Charger too (valued at $26), with the prices here also beating out Amazon by up to $7. These new charging solutions launched back at the top of August carrying $200 and $250 MSRPs, which we saw brought down to $113 and $151 with launch savings, dropping further to these rates for the earlier phase of the brand’s Prime Day Sale. You’re getting an extended period to pick them up at the best rates we have tracked, with a total $96 and $108 in savings off the going rates on top of the additional $26 in free gear. Head below to also check out their bundle options.
We’ve been seeing many of our favorite backup power brands releasing similar-sized devices to rival the ones from Anker SOLIX, which might have kicked off the trend with its popular PowerCore Reserve/C200 DC/C300 DC stations. EcoFlow’s smaller TRAIL 200 DC power station is a 4-pound unit with a 60,000mAh LiFePO4 battery, with the 300 DC model bumping things up to a 90,000mAh LiFePO4 capacity. These stations deliver up to 220W and 300W output through their four or five port options. The 200 DC sports two 12W USB-A ports, a 140W USB-C port, and a 100W USB-C port, while the 300 DC has the same USB-A ports but two 140W USB-C ports and a 120W car outlet.
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EcoFlow’s TRAIL power stations have a bunch of protections built right in against overvoltage, overloading, short circuiting, and much more – with both also being given built-in woven handles to make carrying them easier when not stashed inside a bag. Recharging from a standard AC outlet provides 200W or 280W speeds, with the 300 DC model being the one boasting a 110W maximum solar input via an appropriate panel.
***Note: Remember to use the sitewide code 25PDFAFF at checkout to score these prices below!
Bring home Leviton’s 48A level 2 EV chargers with or without smart controls starting from $514
Amazon is offering the Leviton 48A Hardwired Level 2 Smart EV Charger at $599.20 shipped, with this being from carried-over Prime Day savings. Normally fetching $749 at full price, discounts have almost entirely kept costs above $629 over the year, with a single fall further to the $527 low back during July’s Prime Day event. While the savings last here, you’re looking at a 20% markdown from the going rate that cuts $150 off the tag for the second-lowest price we have tracked. Of course, if you want to save a bit more and don’t mind losing the in-app smart controls, you can pick up the standard EV charger variant at $514.28 shipped, down from $643.
Get a more adaptive cleaning experience with Greenworks’ Pro 3,000 PSI electric pressure washer at $320
Amazon is now offering the newest Greenworks Pro 3,000 PSI Electric Pressure Washer at $319.99 shipped. Normally fetching $450 at full price, discounts over the year have largely kept costs above $330, save for a few drops to the $292 low until Prime Day cut the tag to $305. If you missed out on the two-day-only Prime rate, you can get it for just $15 higher in price while these savings last. You’re still getting a solid $130 markdown here, which lands it at the third-lowest price we have tracked and equips you with the latest and most powerful of the brand’s electric pressure washers.
Birdfy’s Nest Polygon smart solar birdhouse is back at $200 low + more from $290 (Today only)
As part of its Deals of the Day, Best Buy is offering the Birdfy Nest Polygon Smart Solar Birdhouse with camera back at $199.99 shipped, as well as two bird feeder discounts, also only lasting through the rest of the day (more on those below the fold). While it carries a $300 MSRP direct from the brand (currently priced $20 higher), we’ve been seeing it more often keeping between $240 and $260 elsewhere, with discounts regularly falling between $220 and $210 over the year. This low price first appeared in July and repeated once in September, and now it’s back again to give you a $40 to $60 markdown off the going rate for the best price we have tracked. It’s also beating out Amazon’s pricing by $20 right now too.
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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Tesla is now selling retrofit turn signal stalks for Model 3 vehicles in the US, after having deleted the stalks in its update of the Model 3. At first, they were only available in China for certain cars, for the equivalent of ~$350. Now they’re available in the US, but for $595 instead.
In August, Tesla updated its China website with a new accessory: turn signal stalks. This led to speculation as to when or if the product might make it to the US, and today, it has.
That sounds like the setup for a joke (ha ha, those Tesla drivers never using their signal, am I right?!?! (…. I am a Tesla driver and I always use my signals, get off it everyone)), but for those who are out of the loop, it’s actually a solution to a self-inflicted problem by Tesla a few years ago.
The Tesla Model 3 Highland refresh, released in 2023, came with quite a lot of updates. The model had been out for 6 years without major changes, and got quite a slew of them including better sound dampening, a new front end, a slower steering ratio (not a fan of this change), ventilated seats, rear touchscreen, and so on.
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But one of the more controversial changes, within the various cost-cutting that Tesla did to offer these improvements, was the deletion of the turn signal stalk.
Tesla had already been moving in this direction, with the introduction of a “yoke” wheel on the Model S, which didn’t have stalks and used buttons on the wheel for turn signals and the vehicle touchscreen to change gears.
But the deletion of the turn signal stalk, even on a car with a normal steering wheel, was quite controversial. Even though some drivers have gotten used to using the buttons on the steering wheel, or letting FSD signal for you when it decides to change lanes, the convenience and familiarity of a turn signal stalk was still hard to give up for many.
This all happened in 2023, and Tesla got a lot of flack for it, but didn’t relent for some time. Then, in January of 2025, Tesla released the Model Y Juniper refresh, with many of the same changes that the Model 3 had seen.
In that refresh, Tesla did change the steering wheel, including removing the gear selection lever… but also brought back the turn signal stalk. Reason finally ruled the day.
And now, we’re finally seeing the problem get rectified… first in China, but now it’s available in North America, for $595. The installation includes shipping and labor costs to install the stalk, steering wheel, and column control module.
The stalks seem to be available now. So if you want to set up your appointment, you can head over to Tesla’s website, or find the new item in your Tesla app (which the website will direct you to, anyway).
Interestingly enough, the stalks are more widely available in North America than in China. In China, only vehicles that were produced after February 7, 2025 qualify for the stalks, whereas in the US, it seems that all non-stalk Model 3s will qualify, as the website states that any vehicle produced in 2024 or 2025 can install the retrofit. Given that the Highland Model 3 didn’t come out in North America until January 2024, that should mean all of them can get this stalk installed.
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Nissan’s electric SUV is due for its first major refresh. The new Nissan Ariya broke its cover, revealing a design closer to the 2026 LEAF, but those in the US won’t get to see it.
The 2026 Nissan Ariya looks like new LEAF
We are finally getting our first look at the new 2026 Nissan Ariya, which will arrive with a fresh new look, updated infotainment, and a smoother ride.
Nissan gave us a sneak peek of the new electric SUV ahead of its official debut at the upcoming Japan Mobility Show.
The new Ariya drops the black, closed-off grille and air intakes for a cleaner, minimalist look similar to the third-generation LEAF. It also adopts the LEAF’s slim, angled LED light design. Nissan said the new front-end design “exudes a more advanced and high-quality feel.”
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Although the front end was fully revealed, we still have yet to see what the rear will look like. Like the 2026 LEAF (which we already got to test out), it will likely arrive with a cleaner shape and updated lights.
The new 2026 Nissan Ariya (Source: Nissan)
Nissan confirmed the new electric SUV will feature a new infotainment system with Google built in. It will also gain vehicle-to-load (V2L) capabilities. Both of which are already featured in the new LEAF.
With an updated suspension, Nissan said the updated Ariya will feel more comfortable to drive. We will learn more, including prices, range, and other specs, closer to launch.
Nissan unveils the new LEAF in Japan (Source: Nissan)
The new Nissan Ariya will debut at the Japan Mobility Show 2025, which starts on October 31. It will launch in Japan later this fiscal year, followed by overseas markets.
However, those in the US won’t get to see the updates. Nissan is dropping the Ariya SUV from its US lineup for the 2026 model year as it focuses on launching the new LEAF. The automaker said it will still support current owners, but whether it will return for a 2027 model year remains unclear.
The 2025 Nissan Ariya starts at just under $40,000 in the US with an EPA-estimated driving range of 216 miles. The longer range model, with 289 miles of range, starts at $44,370.
Nissan said the 2026 LEAF will have the lowest starting MSRP of any new EV currently on sale in the US, priced from just $29,990.
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