Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
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A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
The EV4 will sadly not arrive in the US as expected, but Kia said it’s still planning on launching another EV that’s expected to be an even bigger hit.
Kia confirms EV4 delay, says another EV is still US-bound
The EV4, Kia’s first electric sedan, was expected to launch in the US within the next few months, but that will no longer be the case.
Kia has indefinitely delayed the launch of the EV4 in the US due to policy changes under the Trump administration.
The loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and added tariffs on Korean imports have forced Kia, like many others, to adjust their US lineup.
According to Kia America’s marketing boss, Russel Wager, the EV4 is only a small part of the broader tariff-related impacts the Korean automaker is facing. Wager told Car and Driver on the sidelines of the LA Auto Show that the changes will likely impact other vehicles and prices.
When asked for specifics about why the EV4 is being pushed back, Wager said, “Can you give me the answer of when the tariffs are going to be resolved in Mexico, Canada, and Seoul? If you give me that answer, I’ll be as specific as possible.”
While the EV4 is delayed indefinitely, Wager suggested bringing the EV3 to the US, Kia’s compact SUV, is still part of the plan.
The Kia EV3 is already one of the most popular EVs in Europe and the UK’s best-selling retail electric car this year. Given the growing demand for smaller SUVs, the EV3 is expected to be an even bigger hit with US buyers than the EV4.
When it will launch in the US or how much it will cost remains up in the air until Kia gets a better idea of market conditions.
Kia’s EV sales plunged after the federal tax credit expired at the end of September. Sales of the EV6 and EV9 fell by 71% and 66% last month compared to October 2024.
According to Wager, the automaker won’t really know what demand looks like until February or March 2026, since the loss of the $7,500 credit likely pulled buyers forward.
Kia is still ready to launch the EV4 in the US, but that’s only if the tariff situation stabilizes. Earlier this month, the US and South Korea agreed to reduce tariffs on imports from 25% to 15%.
“At that point in time we look at it and say, are we at 25 [percent], are we at 15—and then we can build our business case,” Wager said, adding, “It was originally designed and engineered when the tariffs were zero percent.”
The electric pickup that Kia announced just a few months ago may never make it to the US. Wager pointed to Ford halting F-150 Lightning production and reports that it could be scrapped altogether.
In the meantime, Kia is heavily discounting its current electric vehicles, offering a $10,000 customer cash bonus on every model. Or, you can opt for 0% financing for 72 months plus an extra $2,500 bonus cash. Kia’s sister company, Hyundai, is also offering generous discounts with IONIQ 5 leases starting at just $189 per month.
Interested in a test drive? We can help you get started. You can use our links below to find Kia and
Hyundai models in your area.
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A caravan of Chevy Silverado EVs will take the nearly 3,000-mile holiday trip across the US, lighting Christmas trees, surprising onlookers with light shows, and powering up festivities.
Chevy Silverado EVs gear up for a 3,000-mile trip
Chevy is celebrating the holidays with its fifth “Holiday Card to America,” but this year, the festivities will be brought to life.
Created in collaboration with Anomaly and Park Pictures, this season’s Holiday Card puts the spotlight on the ones that help bring the family together while keeping the traditions going: Moms.
The story follows an empty-nest couple through their holiday tradition, a trip to the family cottage in their 1987
Chevrolet Suburban.
The couple reminisces on past trips, with two kids and the family dog in the backseat, which are now empty. The 60-second ad will air on Thursday during the NFL football games on FOX and on the Chevrolet YouTube channel.
Starting December 1, a caravan of Chevy Silverado EVs will travel 2,987 miles across the US from San Diego to Detroit, with stops in Dallas, Nashville, and Atlanta.
The Chevy Silverado EV will light up events in each city, from illuminating the holiday tree to surprise light shows, to festive events where families can roast s’mores over a campfire while holiday caroling from local choirs plays in the background.
Chevy said the nearly 3,000-mile holiday trip is a testament to the electric pickup’s long range, fast charging, and mobile power capabilities.
The Chevy Silverado EV provides an impressive driving range of up to 494 miles, can tow up to 12,500 lbs, and offers up to 10.2 kW of offboard power with up to 11 outlets.
The 2026 Chevy Silverado EV is available in three trims: Custom, LT, or a new Trail Boss edition, starting at $55,895.
With the 2026 models arriving, Chevy is offering 0% APR financing on all 2025 model year electric vehicles, including the Silverado EV, Blazer EV, and Equinox EV.
Interested in a test drive? We can help you get started. You can use our links below to find Chevy Silverado, Blazer, and Equinox EVs at a dealer near you.
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If you’re a parent of a teenager, there’s a decent chance you’ve heard the phrase “Can I get a Sur Ron?” sometime in the last year. Before you panic‑Google it or head to Amazon to see what one of these bikes costs, there are some important things you should know about this class of electric two-wheelers that have become all the rage with teenagers these days.
First, let’s clear something up: “Sur Ron” is technically one of many brands that makes these styles of bikes, but it’s become a catchall term – kind of like Kleenex. People often say “Sur Ron” when what they usually mean is any lightweight electric dirtbike with mountain‑bike styling and motorcycle performance.
The brand Sur Ron may have kick-started the category, but now there are plenty of similar machines: Talaria, Tuttio, Rawrr, ERidePro, Segway X260, and plenty of smaller new brands popping up constantly. For the purposes of this topic, just look at whatever model your kid is asking for. If it looks like the pictures you’re seeing here in this article – dirtbike frame, no pedals, or offers 40+ mph speeds – then regardless of brand, you’re dealing with a “Sur Ron‑style” electric motorcycle.
And that brings us to the key reality parents need to know: A Sur Ron is not an electric bicycle. It is a light electric motorcycle.
Kids might not realize that when they’re begging for one after their friends got one. Many of these bikes are marketed with vaguely bicycle‑ish visuals, and influencers often ride them on public roads or on bike paths. But legally, practically, and mechanically, these machines are nowhere near the same thing as an electric bicycle – and that’s the core issue parents need to understand before clicking “Buy.”
What is a Sur Ron, really?
Unlike a street-legal Class 1, 2, or 3 electric bicycle, a Sur Ron‑class bike:
- Has no spinning bicycle pedals
- Has a throttle-only drive system
- Usually tops out at around 40–50 mph (64-80 km/h)
- Is built like a lightweight motorcycle, not a bicycle
- Usually cannot legally be ridden on public roads, bike lanes, parks, or neighborhoods
There are a few exceptions to the street-legal issue, with brands such as NIU admirably homologating their designs for street-legal use. But this only further drives home the point, since such homologated models still require a motorcycle license to ride legally on public roads.
The point is, if it doesn’t have pedals and it goes over 28 mph, it’s not an electric bicycle almost anywhere in the US. That’s not my opinion – that’s how federal and state definitions work. Once you remove pedals and exceed those limits, you’ve crossed into motor vehicle territory.
Note: Part of the confusion stems from the vague term “e-bike”, which is often used to lump together everything from e-scooters and small electric bicycles to full-sized electric motorcycles. “E-bike” is morphing into a catchall term, but the legal classification of “electric bicycle” is what matters, and that legal denotation differentiates larger, non street-legal motorbikes from a street-legal two-wheeler.
Why do so many kids want one?
A huge part of the Sur Ron explosion has come from YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram videos showing teens doing wheelies, ripping around neighborhoods, and treating these machines like high-powered scooters. Kids see the cool factor, the speed, the off-road styling – and many assume they’re basically “super e-bikes.”
Well-known influencers regularly ride these types of bikes illegally on public roads and in bicycle lanes, often at speeds of up to 50 mph (80 km/h).
The marketing doesn’t help, either. Some retailers list these rides under the “E-Bike” category, even though they’re nowhere near legal electric bicycle specifications. Many come with easily defeatable speed limiters (more on that in a moment) to try to sneak by with questionable speed and power limits.
So in many cases, kids aren’t intentionally asking for a motorcycle. They simply don’t know the difference.
However, police are aware of the distinction, and they are increasingly confiscating these bikes when they are ridden illegally on public streets or bike lanes, especially by teenagers who are unfamiliar with the rules of the road.
The most important question for you: How do they plan to use it?
If your teen is asking for one of these motorbikes, consider asking them how they plan to use the vehicle before you decide what to buy.
If their answer is anything like…
- “Ride around the neighborhood”
- “Commute to school”
- “Go on the bike path”
- “Ride with my friends in town”
…then you can stop right there. A Sur Ron is not appropriate, safe, or legal for that type of riding.
What they need is a Class 1, 2, or 3 e‑bike – something with pedals, legal speed limits, and the ability to ride in bike lanes. There’s a healthy debate about which class is best for teens, but all three are at least street-legal and much safer than a Sur Ron or other light electric motorcycle for street and bike lane riding.
On the other hand, if your teen’s answer to why they want a Sur Ron is something like…
- “Trail riding”
- “Off-roading”
- “Learning motorcycle skills”
- “Riding on private land”
…then a Sur Ron‑class bike can be a great tool. With proper supervision, protective gear, and an appropriate place to ride, these bikes are fantastic learning platforms – and a ton of fun! They’re lightweight, don’t require clutch control, and have smooth throttles that make them more approachable than gasoline-powered dirt bikes. In fact, I’d say that they’re one of the best ways to learn motorcycle and dirt bike skills. Just be sure to get your kid geared up with the proper safety equipment, like a good helmet, gloves, and protective clothing. I really like a company called Beyond Riders (I have no affiliation) and I wear their armored jackets and pants on my full-size motorcycles – that’s how good they are.
Ask yourself honestly: Would you buy your kid a small motorcycle?
Just because it’s electric doesn’t make it any less powerful. If you wouldn’t buy your kid a motorcycle, then it doesn’t make sense to get them a Sur Ron. It’s just a motorcycle that you don’t fill up with gasoline.
Many of these models may claim to be limited to 20 mph (32 km/h), but they almost all have an easily bypassed speed limiter – often a single wire designed to be cut – that allows their top speed to be increased to around 40-50 mph. Electrek’s own publisher has talked before in our e-bike podcast about how his family’s Talaria seems to mysteriously have its speed limiter wire repeatedly cut after his teenager uses it.
These aren’t toys, and they’re not bicycles. They require the same level of responsibility, gear, and supervision as a gas dirt bike.
And depending on where you live, there can be serious legal consequences if your kid rides one on the street: tickets, fines, or worse, liability in the event of a crash.
So what should parents buy instead?
It may appear to some that this article or my views are anti-Sur Ron, but in fact, it’s the opposite. These are great machines, and it’s awesome that they exist. But like many things in life, context is important. These aren’t commuter tools (unless they’re homologated for street-legal riding and the rider has a motorcycle lesson). These are trail bikes for off-road riding.
If your kid’s goal is everyday riding – school commutes, local cruising, bike-path adventures – then you want a proper electric bicycle. Not a Sur Ron.
Look for reputable Class 1, Class 2 or Class 3 e-bikes from brands that make real electric bicycles (things that look like pedal-able bicycles with batteries). Brands like Lectric eBikes, Ride1Up, Aventon, Trek, Rad Power Bikes (while they last), and others are all great, affordable options for families searching for a teenager’s first e-bike. That is by no means an exhaustive list, but they are some of the most popular among younger, budget-minded riders looking for something safe and legal.
These brands all offer models with real pedals, legal speed limits, safer handling, and that won’t get your kid in trouble for riding where motorcycles don’t belong.
Final thoughts: Be real, be safe, and match the bike to the mission
It’s awesome that your kid is excited about electric mobility. That’s something worth supporting. But the right choice depends entirely on how – and where – they plan to ride.
A Sur Ron‑class bike is an amazing off-road machine, and a fantastic training motorcycle. But if the plan is to ride around town, go to school, or stick to bike paths, then it’s absolutely the wrong choice.
There’s no shame in saying “no” to the motorcycle and “yes” to a legal e-bike.
As with all things electric on two wheels, the key is to pick the right tool for the job. And despite the hype, a Sur Ron is not a bicycle. It’s a motorcycle. A fun, capable, impressive motorcycle – but one that needs to be used in the right place, with the right gear, and for the right reasons.
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