Ukraine war: Is there a stalemate – or is this the lull before the storm?

Published

2 years ago

April 29, 2023

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It might seem like the war in Ukraine is slipping from the radar of the world’s media, implying it has reached stalemate and ground to a halt. But behind the headlines, both sides are extremely active.

Russia’s “early” spring offensive – designed to pre-empt Ukraine’s own Western-supported offensive – has rapidly run out of steam, and by any military metric has been an abject failure.

Putin judged that by throwing overwhelming force at the battle-weary Ukrainian defences but instead, has taken huge casualties and left his deployed military forces vulnerable.

Now is the time for Ukraine to take full advantage of Russian exhaustion and, arguably, the stage is set for a potentially decisive phase of the war.

Away from the headlines, Russian forces – predominantly Wagner Group – continue to make slow progress in Bakhmut with a grinding war of attrition.

The fall of Bakhmut looks increasingly inevitable – it has been reported Russian forces now control over 85% of the city – but Ukraine has forced them to pay a very high price for every inch of progress.

Moscow remains focused on securing the Donbas and to the north in Luhansk, forces have not conducted offensive operations in many sectors “for some time” and appear to be consolidating their positions.

At the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, they are establishing sandbag fighting positions on the roofs of several of the six reactor buildings.

Such moves dramatically increase the chances of damage to the plant’s safety systems than if fighting takes place around the site, although catastrophic damage to the reactors is unlikely because the structures are very heavily reinforced.

Russia has also developed extensive linear defences in the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine and has now completed three layers of defensive zones across approximately 120 kilometres of the region, with trenches visible from space.

Extensive use of Dragon’s Teeth – square-pyramidal anti-tank obstacles of reinforced concrete first used during World War Two to impede the movement of tanks and mechanised infantry – completes the defensive lines.

Meanwhile, satellite imagery indicates that Russian forces have transferred armoured vehicles and artillery systems from occupied Crimea to the frontline this past week.

The Ukrainians have also been busy.

Around Kherson, there are increasing reports of several Ukrainian beachheads on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.

This, together with an increased tempo of precision artillery strikes against Russian resupply and logistics hubs, is a clear indication that the early stages of Ukraine’s own offensive phase are already under way.

Western main battle tanks – Leopard 2, Challenge 2 and Abrams – continue to flow into Ukraine to be matched to trained Ukrainian crews, with NATO recently stating that “more than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine have been delivered.”

In addition, 14,000 Ukrainian troops have so far returned to defend their homeland after receiving training in the UK, and tens of thousands more have been trained by other Western nations.

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These are not the actions of a war at stalemate. Both sides are preparing for the next round of brutal warfare.

Whatever the outcome on the battlefield, and wherever the frontline gets relocated, the casualties and devastation will escalate.

Eventually, this will stop, but notwithstanding the apparent lull in the fighting, a storm is coming.

World

Over 100 politicians from multiple countries condemn China over detention of tycoon Jimmy Lai

Published

2 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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Over 100 politicians from multiple countries condemn China over detention of tycoon Jimmy Lai

More than 100 politicians from 24 different countries, including the UK, the US and the EU, have written a joint letter condemning China over the “arbitrary detention and unfair trial” of Jimmy Lai, a tycoon and pro-democracy campaigner.

The parliamentarians, led by senior British Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, are “urgently” demanding the immediate release of the 77-year-old British citizen, who has been held in solitary confinement at a maximum security prison in Hong Kong for almost four years.

The letter – which will be embarrassing for Beijing – was made public on the eve of Mr Lai’s trial resuming and on the day after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit of economic powers in Brazil.

It also comes as Hong Kong jailed 45 pro-democracy activists.

The group of politicians, who also include representatives from Canada, Australia, Spain, Germany, Ukraine and France, said Mr Lai’s treatment was “inhumane”.

“He is being tried on trumped-up charges arising from his peaceful promotion of democracy, his journalism and his human rights advocacy,” they wrote in the letter, which has been seen by Sky News.

“The world is watching as the rule of law, media freedom and human rights in Hong Kong are eroded and undermined.

“We stand together in our defence of these fundamental freedoms and in our demand that Jimmy Lai be released immediately and unconditionally.”

Sir Keir raised the case of Mr Lai during remarks released at the start of his talks with Mr Xi on Monday – the first meeting between a British prime minister and the Chinese leader in six years.

The prime minister could be heard expressing concerns about reports of Mr Lai’s deteriorating health. However, he did not appear to call for his immediate release.

Ms Kearns, the MP for Rutland and Stamford in the East Midlands, said the meeting had been an opportunity to be unequivocal that the UK expects Mr Lai to be freed.

“Jimmy Lai is being inhumanely persecuted for standing up for basic human values,” she said in a statement, released alongside the letter.

“He represents the flame of freedom millions seek around the world.

“We have a duty to fight for Jimmy Lai as a British citizen, and to take a stand against the Chinese Community Party’s erosion of rule of law in Hong Kong.

“This letter represents the strength of international feeling and commitment of parliamentarians globally to securing Jimmy Lai’s immediate release and return to the UK with his family.”

Mr Lai was famously the proprietor of the Chinese-language newspaper Apple Daily in Hong Kong, which wrote scathing reports about the local authorities and the communist government in mainland China after Britain handed back the territory to Beijing in 1997.

The tabloid was a strong supporter of pro-democracy protesters who took to the streets of Hong Kong to demonstrate against the government in 2019.

But the media mogul was arrested the following year – one of the first victims of a draconian new security law imposed by the Chinese Communist Party.

His newspaper was closed after his bank accounts were frozen.

Mr Lai has since been convicted of illegal assembly and fraud. He is now on trial for sedition over articles published in Apple Daily.

World

Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy activists after accusing them of trying to overthrow the city’s government

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2 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy activists after accusing them of trying to overthrow the city's government

Forty-five pro-democracy activists have been jailed in Hong Kong’s largest ever national security trial.

The activists sentenced with jail terms ranging from four years to ten years were accused of conspiracy to commit subversion after holding an unofficial primary election in Hong Kong in 2020.

They were arrested in 2021.

Hong Kong authorities say the defendants were trying to overthrow the territory’s government.

Democracy activist Benny Tai received the longest sentence of ten years. He became the face of the movement when thousands of protesters took to the city’s streets during the “Umbrella Movement” demonstrations.

However, Hong Kong officials accused him of being behind the plan to organise elections to select candidates.

Tai had pleaded guilty, his lawyers argued he believed his election plan was allowed under the city’s Basic Law.

Another prominent activist Joshua Wong received a sentence of more than four years.

Wong became one of the leading figures in the protests. His activism started as a 15 year old when he spearheaded a huge rally against a government plan to change the school curriculum.

Then in 2019 Hong Kong erupted in protests after the city’s government proposed a bill that would allow extradition to mainland China. It peaked in June 2019 when Amnesty International reported that up to two million people marched on the streets, paralysing parts of Hong Kong’s business district.

The extradition bill was later dropped but it had ignited a movement demanding political change and freedom to elect their own leaders in Hong Kong.

China’s central government called the protests “riots” that could not continue.

Hong Kong introduced a national security law in the aftermath of the protests.

The US has called the trial “politically motivated”.

Dozens of family and friends of the accused were waiting for the verdict outside the West Kowloon Magistrates Court.

British citizen and media mogul Jimmy Lai is due to testify on Wednesday.

Meeting on the sidelines of the G20 in Brazil, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told China’s President Xi Jinping he’s concerned about the health of Lai.

He faces charges of fraud and the 2019 protests. He has also been charged with sedition and collusion with foreign forces.

World

42,000 march on New Zealand’s parliament in support of Maori rights

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2 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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42,000 march on New Zealand's parliament in support of Maori rights

Tens of thousands of people have marched on New Zealand’s parliament in a protest in support of Maori rights.

The huge crowds took to the streets of Wellington in opposition to a law that could reshape the country’s founding treaty between the indigenous Maori people and the British crown.

The march was described as likely the country’s largest-ever protest in support of Maori rights.

“We’re fighting for our tamariki [children], for our mokopuna [grandchildren], so they can have what we haven’t been able to have,” Shanell Bob said as she waited for the march to begin.

“It’s different to when I was a child. We’re stronger now, our tamariki [children] are stronger now, they know who they are, they’re proud of who they are.”

The bill the protesters oppose is unpopular and unlikely to become law, but opposition to it has exploded.

It would change the meaning of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi and prevent its principles from applying only to the Maori people – whose chiefs signed the document when New Zealand was colonised.

Considered New Zealand’s founding document, it laid out the principles guiding the relationship between the British crown and the Maori in two versions – one in English and one in Maori.

The document gave Maori the same rights and privileges as British citizens, but the English and Maori versions differed in the degree to which the chiefs ceded power over their affairs, lands and autonomy.

Over time, the colonial rulers breached both versions, with Maori language and culture dwindling – the country’s indigenous people often barred from practicing it – and tribal land was confiscated.

What’s in the controversial bill?

The bill has been drawn up by the libertarian ACT New Zealand party, a junior partner in the ruling centre-right coalition government.

It seeks to enshrine a narrower interpretation of the Treaty of Waitangi which it says discriminates against non-indigenous citizens.

Critics say it is motivated by a desire to reverse decades of policies that aimed to empower Maori people, who make up around 20% of the 5.3 million population.

In recent years, interpretation of clauses in the treaty have frequently guided legislation and policy, with rulings by the courts and a separate Maori tribunal resulting in growing Maori rights and privileges in the decades since independence in 1947.

The bill’s author, libertarian politician David Seymour, says that process of redress, following the earlier decades of breaches of the treaty, has created special treatment for the Maori – which he opposes.

‘We’re going for a walk!’

“We’re going for a walk!” one organiser said from a stage, as crowds gathered at the opposite end of New Zealand’s capital at the beginning of the protest.

Some people taking part had travelled the length of the country over the past nine days.

Diverse groups waited with Maori sovereignty flags at bus stops, which would have usually been occupied by morning commuters.

Youngsters were among those taking part as some schools said they wouldn’t register students as absent if they attended.

The city’s mayor joined in the protest as well as other politicians.

The Maori haka was performed by protesters as thousands more held signs in support as they lined the streets.

Some carried placards that bore jokes or insults aimed at politicians behind the bill, while others expressed pride in Maori identity, support for the protest or denounced the colonisation of the country.

Police said that about 42,000 people walked to the parliament’s grounds, with some spilling into the surrounding streets.

People sought the best vantage points, with some cramming themselves on to a children’s slide, as others climbed trees.

The legislation made it through its first vote last Thursday, after Mr Seymour made a political deal.

ACT’s coalition partners, the National Party and New Zealand First, agreed to support the bill through the first of its three readings, but both have said they will not support it to become law.

Mr Seymour briefly walked out on to the parliament’s forecourt to observe the protest and was booed by some.