Ukraine war: Is there a stalemate – or is this the lull before the storm?
It might seem like the war in Ukraine is slipping from the radar of the world’s media, implying it has reached stalemate and ground to a halt. But behind the headlines, both sides are extremely active.
Russia’s “early” spring offensive – designed to pre-empt Ukraine’s own Western-supported offensive – has rapidly run out of steam, and by any military metric has been an abject failure.
Putin judged that by throwing overwhelming force at the battle-weary Ukrainian defences but instead, has taken huge casualties and left his deployed military forces vulnerable.
Now is the time for Ukraine to take full advantage of Russian exhaustion and, arguably, the stage is set for a potentially decisive phase of the war.
Away from the headlines, Russian forces – predominantly Wagner Group – continue to make slow progress in Bakhmut with a grinding war of attrition.
The fall of Bakhmut looks increasingly inevitable – it has been reported Russian forces now control over 85% of the city – but Ukraine has forced them to pay a very high price for every inch of progress.
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Russian forces clear Crimean depot
Moscow remains focused on securing the Donbas and to the north in Luhansk, forces have not conducted offensive operations in many sectors “for some time” and appear to be consolidating their positions.
At the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, they are establishing sandbag fighting positions on the roofs of several of the six reactor buildings.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Such moves dramatically increase the chances of damage to the plant’s safety systems than if fighting takes place around the site, although catastrophic damage to the reactors is unlikely because the structures are very heavily reinforced.
Russia has also developed extensive linear defences in the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine and has now completed three layers of defensive zones across approximately 120 kilometres of the region, with trenches visible from space.
Extensive use of Dragon’s Teeth – square-pyramidal anti-tank obstacles of reinforced concrete first used during World War Two to impede the movement of tanks and mechanised infantry – completes the defensive lines.
Satellite image of Russian fortifications and Dragon’s Teeth in place in Crimea in January
Meanwhile, satellite imagery indicates that Russian forces have transferred armoured vehicles and artillery systems from occupied Crimea to the frontline this past week.
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The Ukrainians have also been busy.
Around Kherson, there are increasing reports of several Ukrainian beachheads on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
This, together with an increased tempo of precision artillery strikes against Russian resupply and logistics hubs, is a clear indication that the early stages of Ukraine’s own offensive phase are already under way.
Western main battle tanks – Leopard 2, Challenge 2 and Abrams – continue to flow into Ukraine to be matched to trained Ukrainian crews, with NATO recently stating that “more than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine have been delivered.”
In addition, 14,000 Ukrainian troops have so far returned to defend their homeland after receiving training in the UK, and tens of thousands more have been trained by other Western nations.
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These are not the actions of a war at stalemate. Both sides are preparing for the next round of brutal warfare.
Whatever the outcome on the battlefield, and wherever the frontline gets relocated, the casualties and devastation will escalate.
Eventually, this will stop, but notwithstanding the apparent lull in the fighting, a storm is coming.
World
South Korean authorities attempt to arrest President Yoon for second time – standoff with security service under way
A new attempt to arrest South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is under way, six weeks after his short-lived attempt to impose martial law.
A standoff is in place outside Mr Yoon’s official residence between authorities and the president’s security service.
A previous attempt by law enforcement to arrest the impeached president failed earlier this month.
Mr Yoon’s presidential security service prevented dozens of investigators from arresting him after a standoff which lasted nearly six hours on 3 January.
The Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials and police responded by pledging more forceful measures to detain Mr Yoon while they jointly investigate whether his martial law declaration on 3 December amounted to an attempted rebellion.
The National Police Agency convened multiple meetings of field commanders in Seoul and nearby Gyeonggi province in recent days to plan their detainment efforts, and the size of those forces fuelled speculation that more than 1,000 officers could be deployed in a possible multi-day operation.
Police officers stand in front of the gate of the presidential residence in the early hours of Wednesday 15 January local time. Pic: AP
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From 3 January: South Korea protesters clash with police
Anti-corruption agency and police officials met representatives of the presidential security service on Tuesday morning for unspecified discussions regarding efforts to execute the detention warrant for Mr Yoon.
It was not immediately clear at the time if any kind of compromise was reached.
What happened on 3 December?
Mr Yoon declared martial law and deployed troops around the National Assembly at the beginning of last month.
It lasted only hours before politicians managed to get through the blockade and voted to lift the measure.
His presidential powers were suspended when the opposition-dominated assembly voted to impeach him on 14 December, accusing him of rebellion.
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How six hours of martial law unfolded in South Korea
Yoon Suk Yeol speaks at the presidential residence in Seoul on the day he was impeached. Pic: AP
Mr Yoon has argued his declaration of martial law was a legitimate act of governance, calling it a warning to the main liberal opposition Democratic Party which he has described as “despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces”.
He claimed the party used its legislative majority to impeach top officials and undermine the government’s budget.
Over the past two weeks, thousands of anti-Yoon and pro-Yoon protesters have gathered daily in competing rallies near his office in Seoul, in anticipation of the second detention attempt.
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A Gaza deal is “on the brink”, President Joe Biden has said in his final foreign policy address.
The outgoing US leader said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve
peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Pic: Reuters
The US president also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” he said.
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Mr Biden was delivering his final foreign policy address before he leaves office next week.
Monday’s address will be the penultimate time he speaks to the country before the end of his presidency. He is due to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
US and Arab mediators made significant progress overnight toward brokering a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and the release of scores of hostages held in the Gaza Strip – but a deal has not been reached yet, officials said.
A round of ceasefire talks will be held in Doha on Tuesday to finalise remaining details related to a ceasefire deal in Gaza – including over the release of up to 33 hostages – officials added.
Mr Biden went on to claim America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
World
IDF admits ‘serious offence’ after using vehicle marked ambulance in raid in which a grandmother was killed
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has admitted to a “serious offence” after a Sky News investigation analysed CCTV footage showing the moment an 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother was shot in the West Bank.
Halima Abu Leil was shot during a raid in Nablus. The grandmother died soon after.
During the course of the investigation, we noted that a blue vehicle marked as an ambulance and with a red light on its roof was used by IDF troops to enter the West Bank.
Our investigation stated: “Figures who appear to be Israeli military forces exit the ambulance in the foreground. They are equipped with helmets, backpacks, rifles, and other gear.”
The use of a marked medical vehicle for a security operation could be a contravention of the Geneva Convention and a war crime – as well as Halima’s killing.
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CCTV shows Palestinian grandmother shot in IDF raid
The IDF has subsequently told Sky News: “On December 19, 2024, soldiers from the ‘Duvdevan’ unit took part in an operational mission to detain terrorists in Nablus.
“During the operation, an ambulance-like vehicle was used for operational purposes, without authorisation and without the relevant commanders’ approval.”
It added: “The use of the ambulance-like vehicle during the operation was a serious offence, exceeding authority, and a violation of existing orders and procedures.”
It also said the commander of the ‘Duvdevan’ unit was “reprimanded”.
However, it gave no update into the death of Halima, saying “the circumstances of the incident are being examined”.
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The United Nations Special Rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese watched the CCTV video and told Sky News her death could be a “war crime”.
She said: “When I look at the footage, what emerges prima facie is that there were no precautions taken – within these operations whose legality is debatable – to avoid or spare civilian life.
“No principle of proportionality because there was wildfire directed at the identified target and ultimately no respect for the principle of distinction.
“So this was a murder in cold blood and could be a war crime as an extrajudicial killing.”
According to the United Nations Office Of Human Rights in occupied Palestinian territory, Israeli security forces and settlers have killed at least 813 mostly unarmed Palestinians, including 15 women and 177 children, since 7 October 2023.
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