After a back-and-forth affair through six games, the two teams take the ice tonight at the Prudential Center in Newark for Game 7 (8 ET, ESPN).
Which players will be the X factors in pushing their team to victory in this pivotal clash? And who do our writers believe will win Game 7, moving on to take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the second round?
Who is the one key player you’ll be watching in Game 7 for the Rangers?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Adam Fox. Not sure whether any of you have ever been to a church fish fry, but there is always that one person who cleans the fish, cooks the fish, serves the fish and cleans the tables after everyone goes home. Adam Fox is the hockey equivalent of that.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Mr. Clutch himself, Chris Kreider. Only Mark Messier has as many career goals (16) in potential elimination games for the Rangers. Good company, no? Plus, every time Kreider has scored on the power play this series — five of his six goals with the extra skater — the Rangers have won. Exceptional in the two Newark games to open the series, the veteran forward was a force once more alongside Mika Zibanejad and Vladimir Tarasenko in Game 6. I like his chances of earning No. 17, and bypassing Messier, a lot Monday night.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Igor Shesterkin. This series could come down to a last-goal-wins situation. Akira Schmid has been a surprising stalwart for the Devils. Shesterkin is as all-world as they come. We know the Rangers can generate offense (hello, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad & Co.) but I want to see how Shesterkin holds up against the potential onslaught from New Jersey’s hungry core of young stars determined to prove their playoff mettle.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Mika Zibanejad. The Rangers center finally broke through with a goal in Game 6. Coach Gerard Gallant moved Vladimir Tarasenko up with Zibanejad and Kreider, and they were the Rangers’ best trio in Game 6. He has a goal and three assists against the Devils and he’s no stranger to Game 7 heroics: Zibanejad had a goal and five assists in their series finale wins over Carolina and Pittsburgh last postseason.
Who is the one key player you’ll be watching in Game 7 for the Devils?
Clark: Akira Schmid. He’s one of the biggest reasons why the Devils climbed out of a 2-0 series hole to be a win away from the second round. Does one poor performance send him to the bench? Or does Lindy Ruff return to someone who, until Game 6, had been almost perfect, with a .976 save percentage?
Matiash: Jack Hughes and his performances in Games 3 and 4, along with Schmid’s midseries dominance, are enormous reasons the Devils are still lacing them up. The Rangers’ top assets came to play Saturday, effectively gifting us Monday’s Game 7. Now New Jersey’s elite skater has to be his very best self if the home side is to have any hope of moving on to the second round.
Shilton: Nico Hischier. New Jersey’s captain hasn’t been lighting it up offensively in this series, but he’s one of the Devils’ most reliable two-way players. He knows how to manage the game well, can be a playmaker and just brings a sense of calm on the ice. That’s what a team often needs in situations where emotions run high (i.e., elimination games). This will be a major moment for Hischier not just in terms of his on-ice performance but his leadership across the board.
Wyshynski: Timo Meier. The Devils made a trade deadline blockbuster for the San Jose Sharks star in the hopes that he could be a veteran force in a physical playoff series. Through six games, he doesn’t have a point against the Rangers. It’s not for a lack of trying. Although he has been dropped from the Hischier line to the Devils’ third line, Meier has continued to pepper Shesterkin with shots: 24 on goal on 46 even-strength attempts. If he breaks out in Game 7, his series-long drought fades into a footnote. And that’s why they acquired him: to make a difference.
What’s your final score prediction?
Clark: Rangers win 3-2 in OT. Five of the six games in this series have been won by two or more goals. But we’ve also seen so many series-clinching games in this year’s playoffs decided by one goal. Maybe Devils-Rangers does the same?
Matiash: Rangers win 4-1. Too many of New York’s key performers have been in this position before, with the pressure ramped up. That extra experience will make the difference. Plus, I can’t see Igor Shesterkin not being anything short of outstanding in this tilt.
Shilton: Rangers win 5-3. New Jersey is such an excellent story and has played so well at times in this series. But there’s a reason that fourth win is the hardest to get. Sometimes it takes practice at losing to learn how to win. New York has the experience. It has the goaltending edge. They have a lineup of stars that got a huge boost from their Game 6 victory. Momentum is a powerful force and it’s hard not to see it carrying New York into the next round.
Wyshynski: Rangers win 4-2. I think the Devils have shown they can win any game against the Rangers when they’ve cranked up their speedy, puck-hounding 5-on-5 game like they did for most of the first period in Game 6. The problem is that game has tended to disappear whenever the Devils are feeling a modicum of expectations in this series: Games 1 and 2 at home and then again in Game 6, when they had their first crack at eliminating the Rangers. Penalties are a key reason, and that speaks directly to whether they’re disciplined enough for the moment. The Rangers have been here before. I think that experience, and an advantage in goal, carries them through.
Bookmakers across the sportsbook marketplace don’t see a consensus Stanley Cup favorite as the Florida Panthers gear up to attempt a very rare NHL three-peat.
“The way I look at it, there’s no real clear-cut, short favorite,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “This year, it’s more wide open at the top, and then you have a whole second tier of teams that are in that 20-to-40 range. There’s another 10 teams there. Could the Stanley Cup winner come from there? Absolutely. But the top tier has eight teams that we believe will contend for the title.”
The last preseason Stanley Cup favorite to win it all was Colorado (+600) in the 2021-22 season.
The Panthers opened as one of the favorites to win the Cup immediately following their second straight championship. They were +600 solo favorites by mid-September following offseason contract extensions for Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett — despite offseason surgery for superstar Matthew Tkachuk, who is expected back before the new year.
However, a training camp knee injury to captain Aleksander Barkov, which is expected to keep him out for the entire regular season, if not longer, derailed Florida’s Stanley Cup lines at most books. Several operations immediately dropped the team’s championship odds, with ESPN BET briefly lengthening them to +1000.
Still, action on the Cats has remained robust, with ESPN BET reporting its highest portion of bets (17.1%) and handle (21.4%) backing them to three-peat, while BetMGM says the team’s 13.8% handle is the second-highest in the market. Some bookmakers, such as Karry Shreeve, the head of hockey at Caesars Sportsbook, refused to even dethrone the Panthers as favorites, noting that Barkov and Tkachuk’s injuries have more effect on the team’s regular-season odds.
“We’re not ready to drop them in price significantly, at least for the Stanley Cup, just because I’m not convinced who’s going to fill their spot [in the playoffs],” Shreeve told ESPN. “So long as Florida’s getting into the playoffs again, as far as right now, not knowing anything else, they’re still, to me, the favorite. Not by a lot, but still a favorite, and not a team we’re willing to push out in price just yet.”
Several sportsbooks, including DraftKings and ESPN BET, are instead high on the Hurricanes, even though bettors are backing them at a relatively low clip in terms of both the number of tickets and money wagered.
“Carolina is one of the most consistently dominant teams we have seen in recent years, having recouped some talent over the summer as they look to make another deep run,” ESPN BET senior director Adrian Horton said by email. “Patrons will likely have their postseason struggles in mind, but it took the Panthers at full steam to eliminate them. We fully expect Carolina to be back battling in the playoffs.”
In the favorites tier, bettors are more focused on the Avalanche, who have garnered the third-highest handle at BetMGM and ESPN BET. Beyond the first tier, many patrons are keying on the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1600), who have taken the most tickets and money at BetMGM.
Will the Panthers three-peat as Stanley Cup champions? Which teams will finish the season atop the division standings? And which players will take home the major individual awards?
We’ve gathered our cross-platform ESPN hockey family together to predict the winners of each division, along with the Stanley Cup champion and the players who will win all of the hardware.
Sean Allen: Maple Leafs John Buccigross: Lightning Stormy Buonantony: Lightning Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Maple Leafs Sach Chandan: Lightning Meghan Chayka: Lightning Ryan S. Clark: Lightning Ray Ferraro: Lightning Emily Kaplan: Lightning Tim Kavanagh: Senators Rachel Kryshak: Lightning Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Lightning Steve Levy: Maple Leafs Vince Masi: Lightning Victoria Matiash: Lightning Sean McDonough: Lightning AJ Mleczko: Lightning Mike Monaco: Lightning Arda Öcal: Lightning T.J. Oshie: Lightning Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs P.K. Subban: Lightning John Tortorella: Panthers Bob Wischusen: Lightning Greg Wyshynski: Lightning
Totals: Lightning (19), Maple Leafs (4), Senators (1), Panthers (1)
Metropolitan Division
Sean Allen: Devils John Buccigross: Hurricanes Stormy Buonantony: Hurricanes Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Hurricanes Sach Chandan: Devils Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes Ryan S. Clark: Hurricanes Ray Ferraro: Hurricanes Emily Kaplan: Hurricanes Tim Kavanagh: Devils Rachel Kryshak: Hurricanes Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes Steve Levy: Devils Vince Masi: Hurricanes Victoria Matiash: Devils Sean McDonough: Rangers AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes Mike Monaco: Hurricanes Arda Öcal: Devils T.J. Oshie: Capitals Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes P.K. Subban: Capitals John Tortorella: Devils Bob Wischusen: Hurricanes Greg Wyshynski: Hurricanes
Sean Allen: Stars John Buccigross: Avalanche Stormy Buonantony: Avalanche Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Avalanche Sach Chandan: Avalanche Meghan Chayka: Avalanche Ryan S. Clark: Avalanche Ray Ferraro: Stars Emily Kaplan: Avalanche Tim Kavanagh: Avalanche Rachel Kryshak: Stars Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars Steve Levy: Stars Vince Masi: Avalanche Victoria Matiash: Stars Sean McDonough: Stars AJ Mleczko: Stars Mike Monaco: Avalanche Arda Öcal: Stars T.J. Oshie: Stars Kristen Shilton: Stars P.K. Subban: Wild John Tortorella: Wild Bob Wischusen: Avalanche Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Totals: Avalanche (12), Stars (11), Wild (2)
Pacific Division
Sean Allen: Oilers John Buccigross: Oilers Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights Sach Chandan: Golden Knights Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights Rachel Kryshak: Oilers Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights Steve Levy: Kings Vince Masi: Golden Knights Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights Sean McDonough: Oilers AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights Mike Monaco: Oilers Arda Öcal: Golden Knights T.J. Oshie: Golden Knights Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights P.K. Subban: Oilers John Tortorella: Golden Knights Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights Greg Wyshynski: Oilers
Totals: Golden Knights (17), Oilers (7), Kings (1)
Stanley Cup
Sean Allen: Panthers John Buccigross: Hurricanes Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Jets Sach Chandan: Avalanche Meghan Chayka: Avalanche Ryan S. Clark: Stars Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights Emily Kaplan: Panthers Tim Kavanagh: Stars Rachel Kryshak: Stars Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights Steve Levy: Kings Vince Masi: Avalanche Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights Sean McDonough: Oilers AJ Mleczko: Avalanche Mike Monaco: Oilers Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs T.J. Oshie: Oilers Kristen Shilton: Stars John Tortorella: Devils Bob Wischusen: Panthers Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Sean Allen: Auston Matthews John Buccigross: Auston Matthews Stormy Buonantony: Connor McDavid Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Auston Matthews Sach Chandan:Leon Draisaitl Meghan Chayka: Leon Draisaitl Ryan S. Clark: Nikita Kucherov Ray Ferraro: Leon Draisaitl Emily Kaplan: Leon Draisaitl Tim Kavanagh: Kirill Kaprizov Rachel Kryshak: Leon Draisaitl Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Auston Matthews Steve Levy: Leon Draisaitl Vince Masi:Brayden Point Victoria Matiash: Auston Matthews Sean McDonough: Leon Draisaitl AJ Mleczko: Auston Matthews Mike Monaco: Auston Matthews Arda Öcal: Auston Matthews T.J. Oshie: Leon Draisaitl Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews P.K. Subban:Jake Guentzel John Tortorella: Connor McDavid Bob Wischusen: Auston Matthews Greg Wyshynski: Leon Draisaitl
Sean Allen:Cale Makar John Buccigross: Cale Makar Stormy Buonantony:Shea Theodore Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Cale Makar Sach Chandan:Zach Werenski Meghan Chayka: Cale Makar Ryan S. Clark: Cale Makar Ray Ferraro:Quinn Hughes Emily Kaplan: Zach Werenski Tim Kavanagh: Quinn Hughes Rachel Kryshak: Cale Makar Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Cale Makar Steve Levy: Quinn Hughes Vince Masi: Quinn Hughes Victoria Matiash: Quinn Hughes Sean McDonough: Cale Makar AJ Mleczko: Quinn Hughes Mike Monaco: Cale Makar Arda Öcal: Cale Makar T.J. Oshie: Cale Makar Kristen Shilton: Quinn Hughes P.K. Subban:Lane Hutson John Tortorella: Quinn Hughes Bob Wischusen: Cale Makar Greg Wyshynski:Rasmus Dahlin
Sean Allen:Jake Oettinger John Buccigross: Jake Oettinger Stormy Buonantony: Jake Oettinger Cassie Campbell-Pascall:Connor Hellebuyck Sach Chandan:Andrei Vasilevskiy Meghan Chayka: Andrei Vasilevskiy Ryan S. Clark: Andrei Vasilevskiy Ray Ferraro: Andrei Vasilevskiy Emily Kaplan: Jake Oettinger Tim Kavanagh:Jacob Markstrom Rachel Kryshak:Igor Shesterkin Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Andrei Vasilevskiy Steve Levy: Jake Oettinger Vince Masi:Linus Ullmark Victoria Matiash: Andrei Vasilevskiy Sean McDonough: Igor Shesterkin AJ Mleczko: Jake Oettinger Mike Monaco: Jake Oettinger Arda Öcal: Andrei Vasilevskiy T.J. Oshie: Connor Hellebuyck Kristen Shilton: Igor Shesterkin P.K. Subban: Andrei Vasilevskiy John Tortorella:Sergei Bobrovsky Bob Wischusen: Igor Shesterkin Greg Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Sean Allen:Alexander Nikishin John Buccigross:Ivan Demidov Stormy Buonantony: Ivan Demidov Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Ivan Demidov Sach Chandan:Michael Misa Meghan Chayka: Ivan Demidov Ryan S. Clark: Ivan Demidov Ray Ferraro: Ivan Demidov Emily Kaplan:Zeev Buium Tim Kavanagh:Jimmy Snuggerud Rachel Kryshak: Ivan Demidov Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Ivan Demidov Steve Levy: Zeev Buium Vince Masi: Jimmy Snuggerud Victoria Matiash: Jimmy Snuggerud Sean McDonough: Ivan Demidov AJ Mleczko: Zeev Buium Mike Monaco: Ivan Demidov Arda Öcal:Yaroslav Askarov T.J. Oshie:Ryan Leonard Kristen Shilton: Ivan Demidov P.K. Subban:Matthew Schaefer John Tortorella: Ryan Leonard Bob Wischusen: Ivan Demidov Greg Wyshynski: Alexander Nikishin
Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.
For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.
After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.
As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.
How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?
How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR
Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.
The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.
That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.
It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.
How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR
Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.
If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.
If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.
But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!
How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?
Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.
And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.
During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.
Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.
This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:
Second best vs. middle-middle pitches
Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)
Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value
Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers
Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters
Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.
How Judge is handling pitches he should crush
Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).
So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.
This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”
So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.
Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.