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Midterms were only six months ago but the 2024 campaign season is already firing on all cylinders as races ramp up for the Senate seats that will determine control of the upper chamber.

Republicans are on offense as they search for the top candidates to take down a cadre of incumbent Democrats who have survived cycle upon cycle. At stake is the Democrats one-seat majority as they play defense in ruby-red states that Republicans are licking their chops to win. 

Here’s an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year: West Virginia

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice speaks during an announcement for his U.S. Senate campaign, Thursday, April 27, 2023, at The Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. (AP Photo/Chris Jackson)

The state has long been expected to be at the center of the fight for the Senate but that battle heated up last week when Gov. Jim Justice (R) announced his bid to replace Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), handing the GOP one of its top recruits on the 2024 map.

Justice immediately becomes the favorite for the GOP nod. Polling is showing him likely to prevail, and the National Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, backed by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), signaling their support.

Top senators are also on board, including Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who appeared with him on Thursday night and labeled him a “powerhouse.” 

But he still faces a tough road against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), a pro-Trump conservative who showed his mettle last year by ousting Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) in a primary spawned by redistricting. The Club for Growth has also said they are prepared to drop $10 million to back Mooney. 

“Justice is 50-50 to just be the nominee,” one Democratic operative told The Hill, noting that he was a Democrat not long ago.  Senate GOP smells blood as Justice launches Manchin challenge

The winner of the primary takes on Manchin in a state former President Trump won by almost 40 points.

Manchin has been both a linchpin and thorn in the side of Democrats, delivering key votes last year for major pieces of legislation but first extracting concessions from leadership. More recently, he said he is prepared to support overturning the Inflation Reduction Act if the administration does not implement it properly and voted with Republicans to overturn a Biden administration rule on truck emissions. 

The two-term moderate Democrat says he won’t decide on a run before December and is likely to watch the primary and see how things unfold before making the call. 

But Republicans are gearing up as if Manchin will be on the ballot once again.

“Sen. Manchin is formidable. We all know that,” Capito said in a brief interview. “It’ll be a barnburner, that’s for sure.”

Manchin, for his part, issued a statement shortly before Justice announced his run, both boasting of his electoral prowess and contributing to speculation he may have other aspirations.

“But make no mistake, I will win any race I enter,” he said. Montana

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) leaves a closed-door House Republican Conference meeting on Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington, D.C. (Greg Nash)

Unlike in West Virginia, the first half of the equation is complete for Democrats as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) announced earlier this year that he will seek a fourth term, giving the party a real chance in one of the two reddest states on the map. 

Now, it’sa matter of getting him across the finish line as Republicans try to find a candidate able to deny him six more years in Washington. 

For the GOP and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the two names that continue to pop up are businessman Tim Sheehy, a friend of Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R) as they try to find someone (and anyone) who isn’t Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) to square off with Tester.  

“We need to get the right candidate in a state like that. … Rosendale can’t do it,” one GOP operative said, adding they suspect Tester ran in part because of the chances Rosendale would win the nomination.

Tester defeated Rosendale by 4.5 points in 2018. 

Despite the state’s red hue — Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020 — Democrats remain confident in Tester, who is trying to keep his focus on all things local. Last week was a prime example as he announced a blockade of all Biden administration nominees to Amtrak’s board of directors over the lack of Western representation.  

“No matter who his opponent is, they’re not from Montana,” the Democratic operative said. “There’s nobody more Montana than Jon Tester.”  Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)

The Buckeye State fills out the political triumvirate of incumbent Democrats in red states that the GOP is trying to knock off as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) tries to nab a fourth term. 

So far, two top-tier candidates have jumped into the race to replace Brown — Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno, both of whom ran in 2022 — while two others — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Rep. Warren Davidson — are eyeing potential bids. 

Most are considered viable candidates to defeat Brown, though questions remain about Davidson given his lack of financial prowess or statewide name-ID. 

“It’s wide open. Even more wide open than last time,” a second GOP operative told The Hill. “If you don’t have $10+ million, it’s almost not plausible [to complete]. That’s the first, second and third hurdle for anyone.”

Republicans believe Brown will be tough to take out, no matter who emerges. But they are leaning on the shift to the right the state has undergone over the last eight years to carry the day for them.

“Very tough,” the second operative said of how difficult it will be to topple Brown. “He has never run in the new Ohio — in the ruby red Ohio. … The wind has always been at his back, it’s never been at his face, but he’s not to be underestimated.”  Arizona

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)

The Arizona Senate race is by far the most complicated contest on this list as questions surround the future of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who left the Democratic Party last year and has not said whether she’ll mount a reelection bid.

Sinema this week once again demurred when asked during an interview about her future plans. 

But as things stand, a three-way race is shaping up between her, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and an unknown Republican, with murmurs centering on whether former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake will seek the seat. 

If she does, she is the likely favorite to win the party nomination over Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who officially launched his bid earlier this month. 

But if she doesn’t, the door opens to a possible reprisal bid by Blake Masters, who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) in 2022, and Jim Lamon, who was defeated by Masters in the primary. 

Establishment forces, meanwhile, are holding out hope that Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Lake last summer, will run. One Arizona-based GOP operative said that she is “really considering” that possibility. 

“It’s a really big mess,” the first GOP operative said. “That field is far from set. … Among the races that should be getable, it’s going to be the toughest.” 

While Gallego is considered the favorite in the race writ large given the uncertainty surrounding Sinema and Lake’s likely struggles to win moderate support, some figures don’t count the incumbent senator out when all is said and done. 

“The secret sauce is that she’s like teflon. Nothing sticks to her. … But is she a spoiler or can she win? It’s too early to know,” the Arizona-based GOP operative said. ”She is tenacious. She is smart and she will work hard. The question I’ve been asking is: How much does she want it?”

National Democrats are still refusing to put their finger on the scale yet and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is telling donors to lay low as they await Sinema’s decision, the Democratic operative said.  Pennsylvania

Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.) is seen during a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on Wednesday, March 22, 2023 to discuss the upcoming price hike for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine. (Greg Nash)

Of the five Democrats on this list, no one is in a better position to secure reelection than Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) as Republicans brace for a bruising primary battle between the establishment and hardcore right-wing factions of the party.

Ask almost any Republican in the Keystone State and they’ll say the GOP’s chances to defeat Casey are zilch if David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates who lost the state’s Senate primary to Mehmet Oz last year, isn’t the nominee.

McCormick has said for months that he is undecided about a bid, but he’s done everything in that time to tee himself up for another run, including meeting with party leaders across the state and releasing a book. 

He also has the full backing of the NRSC and SLF to boot. 

“He’s worked very hard at being visible, being at the right places talking to the right people and is prepared to run a race he wasn’t last time around,” one Pennsylvania-based GOP operative said. “[The 2022 primary] wasn’t a race he built a base for. This time he has a base.”

However, the possibility of a primary bid by state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), who Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) defeated by nearly 15 points in November for the right to lead the state, continues to be of concern for many within the party who worry he would cost the party the seat outright if he is the nominee. 

Even former President Trump is reportedly worried about the possibility as Mastriano continues to float a possible bid. 

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Southport child killer Axel Rudakubana jailed for life with minimum of 52 years

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Southport child killer Axel Rudakubana jailed for life with minimum of 52 years

Southport murderer Axel Rudakubana has been jailed for a minimum of 52 years – with the judge saying it’s “highly likely” he will never be released.

Warning: This article contains details of violence that some readers might find distressing.

The 18-year-old pleaded guilty to murdering Alice da Silva Aguiar, nine, Bebe King, six, and Elsie Dot Stancombe, seven, at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class.

Southport murders latest – Killer likely to never be freed

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New footage shows killer before attack

Rudakubana also admitted trying to murder eight other children, as well as instructor Leanne Lucas and businessman John Hayes, on 29 July last year.

The judge, Mr Justice Goose, gave him 13 life sentences and said if Rudakubana had been 18 at the time of the attack he would have received a whole-life term – meaning no possibility of release.

He said the killings had caused “shock and revulsion” to the nation and Rudakubana would have killed all 26 children if he’d been able.

Alice, Bebe and Elsie were stabbed multiple times in a ferocious attack that lasted 15 minutes.

Prosecutors told the court that, while in custody, the 18-year-old said: “It’s a good thing those children are dead, I’m so glad, I’m so happy.”

Elsie Dot Stancombe, Alice da Silva Aguiar and Bebe King.
Pic: Merseyside Police
Image:
Elsie Dot Stancombe, Alice da Silva Aguiar and Bebe King.
Pic: Merseyside Police

Rudakubana’s attack on “innocent, happy young girls” was clearly premeditated and he had showed no remorse, the judge added.

He will be 70 before a parole board can consider releasing him, but the judge said it was “highly likely” he will never be freed.

The triple-killer was sentenced at Liverpool Crown Court, but was not present for the judge’s remarks after telling his lawyer he would be “disruptive” during proceedings.

During sentencing earlier in the day he was twice ordered out of the dock after shouting that he “felt ill”.

Rudakubana told his lawyer he had chest pains, was too ill to continue and wanted to see a paramedic, but the judge said two paramedics had deemed him fit to continue.

‘How can I live knowing children died?’

Before sentencing, the court heard emotional statements from victims and families.

Alice’s family – who had been planning to surprise her with a trip to Disneyland – said she was “strong and confident” with “unlimited potential”. They said her death had “shattered our souls”.

Elsie’s mum said Rudakubana was a coward and “beyond contempt”.

“He took our daughter. There’s no greater loss and no greater pain. He has left us with a lifetime of grief,” she said.

Dance teacher Leanne Lucas, who was stabbed in the back, said she couldn’t give herself “compassion or accept praise, as how can I live knowing I survived when children died?”.

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‘Most harrowing case ever’ – police chief

Killer pulled girl back inside

Rudakubana was 17 when he walked into the dance studio before silently, indiscriminately stabbing his victims with a kitchen knife – a 20cm blade he had bought on Amazon using encrypted software to hide his identity.

He stabbed some of his victims in the back as they tried to escape, pulling one girl back inside to attack her – she was knifed dozens of times but survived.

Police arrested Rudakubana inside the Hart Space venue as he stood over a body, still holding the knife.

Officers later found a plastic kitchen box containing the toxin ricin under his bed in the village of Banks, Lancashire, along with other weapons including a machete and arrows.

**STRICTLY EMBARGOED UNTIL AFTER CONCLUSION OF SENTENCING**
Pic: Merseyside Police
Axel Rudakubana trial Southport murders court evidence
Image:
Ricin was found in a box at his home. Pic: Merseyside Police


An analysis of his devices revealed an obsession with violence, war and genocide, with documents discovered including an academic study of an al Qaeda training manual.

Police believe he used techniques he learned from the PDF file, which contained instructions on how to commit knife and ricin attacks, to carry out the mass stabbing.

Read more:
The 14 minutes of terror that left three children dead

Family of Rudakubana ‘moved to secret location’
No wonder public is confused about attack – analysis

‘Cowardly and vicious’

The 18-year-old pleaded guilty to charges of producing ricin and possession of information useful for the purposes of terrorism.

The judge said it was highly likely he would have used the potent toxin if he hadn’t carried out the stabbing attack.

**STRICTLY EMBARGOED UNTIL AFTER CONCLUSION OF SENTENCING**
Pic: Merseyside Police
Axel Rudakubana trial Southport murders court evidence
Image:
A machete was also found at Rudakubana’s home. Pic: Merseyside Police

Merseyside police chief Serena Kennedy said there was no evidence Rudakubana ascribed to any political or religious ideology and was not fighting for a cause, so the “cowardly and vicious attack” was not treated as terrorism.

“This is a young man with an unhealthy obsession with violence,” she said.

“His only purpose was to kill the youngest and most vulnerable and spread the greatest level of fear and outrage, which he succeeded in doing.”

The attack sparked the UK riots last summer after false claims online that Rudakubana – born in Cardiff to Christian parents from Rwanda – was a newly arrived asylum seeker.

Missed opportunities

The government has announced an inquiry into how the state failed to recognise the risk posed by Rudakubana and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said he will consider changing the definition of terrorism if necessary.

The teenager was referred three times by schools to the government’s anti-extremism programme between 2019 and 2021 over concerns about his interest in school shootings, Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, and the London Bridge attacks.

He also had repeated contact with police, the courts, the justice system and mental health services in the years before he carried out the attack, including over using school computers to research acts of violence.

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How the attack unfolded

Rudakubana was expelled from school for saying he was carrying a knife in October 2019, but returned to attack another pupil with a hockey stick, while carrying a knife in his backpack.

He pleaded guilty to assault, possession of an offensive weapon, and possession of a knife over the incident and received a youth justice referral order focused on knife crime.

His parents called police four times about his behaviour, including on one occasion in May 2022 after they restricted his access to a computer.

On another occasion in March of the same year, a bus driver called the police because he had not paid the fare, and he told officers he had a knife, but they took him home to talk to his mother about securing knives at home.

No disciplinary proceedings have been brought against anyone involved in dealing with his case.

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Southport murders: The 14 minutes of terror that left three children dead

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Southport murders: The 14 minutes of terror that left three children dead

Axel Rudakubana’s horrific knife attack on a Taylor Swift-themed holiday club killed three children and injured others. This is how it unfolded.

Why you can trust Sky News

Warning: This article contains graphic references to violence

When yoga instructor Leanne Lucas posted an advert for a Taylor Swift-themed holiday club in Southport, the two-hour dance class sold out within 11 days.

It was a beautiful summer’s morning on 29 July when 26 children, all girls aged between six and 13, were dropped off by their parents to dance, play and make friendship bracelets.

Meanwhile, at his family home in the nearby village of Banks, Lancashire, Axel Rudakubana, then 17, armed himself with a 20cm kitchen knife he had earlier bought on Amazon.

This is a timeline of what happened next:

Follow latest: Dance class killer Axel Rudakubana sentenced

10am: The workshop led by Leanne and her colleague Heidi Liddle gets under way.

11.04am: Rudakubana searches online for “Mar Mari Emmanuel stabbing” – the knife attack on a bishop in Sydney, Australia, earlier that year.

11.10am: Despite the sunshine, he is wearing a green hoodie with the hood up and a surgical face mask covering his face when he leaves his home in the village of Banks in Lancashire.

11.11am: One minute later, he is captured on CCTV at a bus stop making a call to book a taxi.

11.16am: Around five minutes later he heads back towards home.

11.30am: Rudakubana is picked up and travels in silence for the 4.5-mile journey to Hart Street in Southport.

On the first map start with the marker at the bottom and then click next.

Reset

11.43am: When he arrives, he asks the driver to direct him to 34a. But he refuses to pay the driver, who then follows him down a driveway towards Masters Vehicle Body Repairs at number 36a.

Read more:
What are the UK’s knife crime laws?
Southport attacker had ‘kill list’

11.44am: Rudakubana retreats after the owner of the car repair workshop, Colin Parry, and his colleague confront him, telling him to pay the fare but Rudakubana replies: “What are you going to do about it?”

Southport timeline feature - Colin Parry
Image:
Colin Parry owns a business near the scene of the crime

Inside the dance studio, on the first floor of an industrial unit down a path off the main road, children are gathered around tables making bracelets, while a life-size model of Taylor Swift stands nearby for the youngsters to pose for photos with.

As Ms Lucas opens a window because of the hot weather she sees the teenager outside but thinks nothing of it.

11.45am: Rudakubana walks into the 34a Hart Street building, climbs up the stairs to the first floor and opens the door armed with the black-handled kitchen knife.

Without saying a word, he grabs the girl nearest to him and begins stabbing her, before moving through the room, stabbing as many children as he can.

11.46am: CCTV shows one child as she tries to escape the building but is dragged back in by Rudakubana, before she staggers out and collapses.

11.47am: Merseyside Police receive their first emergency call.

11.48-11.56am: North West Ambulance Service respond after a call reporting the stabbings.

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Southport timeline feature - Joel Verite
Image:
Joel Verite carried an injured child to the street to get help

Window cleaner, Joel Verite, then 25, is driving past with his work partner. They stop to help Leanne Lucas who has been stabbed in the back before fleeing the building with several children. She tells them children are being attacked.

Mr Verite runs down the driveway to the dance studio where a mother waiting to collect her daughter has parked. She has her daughter in the car and three other girls who have managed to escape.

She asks him to help a child who has been stabbed several times. He later described opening the door behind the driver’s seat to find the girl “had many holes in her body”.

Southport timeline feature - aerial view
Image:
An aerial view of the scene as police investigate.

Mr Verite carries the child back to the street, where other members of the public are gathering to help. Then he runs to the building’s entrance, where he is told by two men the attacker is in the dance studio.

Mr Verite sees a man at the top of the stairs with his hood up, holding a knife. The attacker moves away when seen, while Mr Verite calls “for everyone to come over and block him in”.

On the below map start with the marker on the left and then click next.

Reset

Jonathan Hayes is at work in an office located across the landing from the dance studio when he hears screaming and looks out of the window to see some children running across the car park.

He leaves his desk intending to go outside to help but, as he walks on to the landing, he sees a child on the floor, motionless and bleeding. The attacker is crouching over her but starts to follow Mr Hayes as he retreats. Mr Hayes tries to grab the knife and the defendant swipes at him and stabs him in the leg. His colleague chases Rudakubana out of the office and shuts the door.

Car repair shop owner Colin Parry is also now on the scene, after being phoned by a colleague who’d heard the screaming next door. He sees children running past, some lying on the floor injured.

11.57am: The first police officer, Sergeant Gillespie, arrives at the scene to find Rudakubana holding the knife, which he drops when ordered to do so by the officer.

Mr Verite, a former rugby league player for Wigan and Salford, follows officers inside and sees blood everywhere as two officers tackle the attacker to the floor. He carries an injured child out to an ambulance and stays with her.

Police find Heidi Liddle and a little girl she protected hiding in a toilet. They are escorted from the building crying.

11.59am: Rudakubana is arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, then further arrested on suspicion of murder three minutes later.

Southport timeline feature - police on scene
Image:
Forensic officers at the scene of the murders as the probe continued. Pic: PA

Rudakubana stabbed 11 children and two adults (Leanne Lucas and John Hayes) – causing the deaths of Alice da Silva Aguiar (nine), Bebe King (six) and Elsie Dot Stancombe (seven).

He was taken to Copy Lane police station where he remained silent throughout his interviews with officers.

Despite later discovering he had a wide interest in violence, genocide and terrorism from an analysis of his digital devices, police say they still don’t know why he carried out the attack.

In the hours after the stabbings, false rumours spread online claiming the suspect was an asylum seeker who had arrived in the UK on a small boat, sparking a wave of rioting and unrest across the country.

Southport timeline feature - tributes
Image:
Tributes laid in Southport for the three girls who died. Pic: PA

Read more:
Southport murders: Missed opportunities
‘Terrorism has changed’, PM says

On Monday, as his trial was about to start, Rudakubana pleaded guilty to the three murders and 10 other charges of attempted murder.

He also pleaded guilty to production of a biological toxin, ricin, found in a container under his bed the day after the attack, and possession of an academic analysis of an al Qaeda training manual under the Terrorism Act.

When he was charged with the offences in October, police maintained the attack was not being treated as a terrorist incident.

Southport timeline feature - tribute
Image:
There was an outpouring of shock and grief at what happened. Pic: PA

During the sentencing hearing, Rudakubana repeatedly called for proceedings to be stopped, shouting: “I need to see a paramedic because I feel ill.” He was removed twice from court and wasn’t present to hear his sentence.

In his absence, Mr Justice Goose sentenced the 18-year-old to a life sentence with a minimum term of 52 years. The judge said “it is likely he will never be released and will be in custody for all his life”.

Explaining his decision, the judge added: “The prosecution have made it clear this does not meet the definition of an act of terrorism within the meaning of the legislation as there is no evidence the purpose was to advance a particular political or ideological cause. I must accept that conclusion.

“However, his culpability is equivalent in its seriousness to terrorist murders, whatever his purpose.

“What he did on July 29 caused such shock and revulsion that it must be seen as the most extreme level of crime.”


Additional reporting by Adam Parker, OSINT editor, and Freya Gibson, junior OSINT producer. Maps credit: Google Earth

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK

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Braves sign outfielder Profar to 3-year, $42M deal

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Braves sign outfielder Profar to 3-year, M deal

Outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Atlanta Braves agreed on a three-year, $42 million contract Thursday, uniting the veteran coming off a career year with a team that has struggled in recent years to find a suitable left fielder.

Profar, 31, was a revelation for the San Diego Padres last year, hitting .280/.380/.459 with a career-high 24 home runs and 85 RBIs. Once the top prospect in all of baseball, Profar made his first All-Star team and won a Silver Slugger — all on a one-year, $1 million deal.

He cashed in with the Braves, who outbid a number of teams interested in Profar’s on-base skills as well as his energy that invigorated Padres supporters and infuriated rival fan bases.

Profar will join center fielder Michael Harris II and right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., the former National League MVP coming off a torn left ACL just three years after tearing the ligament in his right knee. Without Acuña for most of last season, the Braves’ offense suffered a deep regression from 2023, when they set a single-season team record with a .501 slugging percentage.

The switch-hitting Profar can slot almost anywhere in the lineup, though he figures to begin the season toward the top as Acuña continues to rehab his knee. Beyond Harris and Acuña, Atlanta’s lineup includes All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Matt Olson. Profar will receive $12 million this year and $15 million in 2026 and 2027.

Atlanta is typically one of the most aggressive teams in baseball, striking early in free agency and with trades. After trading slugger Jorge Soler in late October, the Braves dabbled in minor league deals and watched as starter Max Fried went to the New York Yankees, starter Charlie Morton went to the Baltimore Orioles and reliever A.J. Minter went to the New York Mets.

Profar is Atlanta’s first real addition this winter after sneaking into the postseason at 89-73 and promptly getting swept by San Diego. He has spent all 11 years of his major league career in the West divisions, debuting at 19 with the Texas Rangers. Profar never fulfilled his potential there and went to Oakland in 2019 before settling with the Padres, where he became a full-time outfielder. Over 1,119 games in his career, Profar has hit .245/.331/.395 with 111 home runs and 444 RBIs in 4,291 plate appearances.

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