Senate rankings: Here are the 5 seats most likely to flip

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2 years ago

May 1, 2023

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Midterms were only six months ago but the 2024 campaign season is already firing on all cylinders as races ramp up for the Senate seats that will determine control of the upper chamber.

Republicans are on offense as they search for the top candidates to take down a cadre of incumbent Democrats who have survived cycle upon cycle. At stake is the Democrats one-seat majority as they play defense in ruby-red states that Republicans are licking their chops to win.

Here’s an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year: West Virginia

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice speaks during an announcement for his U.S. Senate campaign, Thursday, April 27, 2023, at The Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. (AP Photo/Chris Jackson)

The state has long been expected to be at the center of the fight for the Senate but that battle heated up last week when Gov. Jim Justice (R) announced his bid to replace Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), handing the GOP one of its top recruits on the 2024 map.

Justice immediately becomes the favorite for the GOP nod. Polling is showing him likely to prevail, and the National Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, backed by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), signaling their support.

Top senators are also on board, including Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who appeared with him on Thursday night and labeled him a “powerhouse.”

But he still faces a tough road against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), a pro-Trump conservative who showed his mettle last year by ousting Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) in a primary spawned by redistricting. The Club for Growth has also said they are prepared to drop $10 million to back Mooney.

“Justice is 50-50 to just be the nominee,” one Democratic operative told The Hill, noting that he was a Democrat not long ago. Senate GOP smells blood as Justice launches Manchin challenge

The winner of the primary takes on Manchin in a state former President Trump won by almost 40 points.

Manchin has been both a linchpin and thorn in the side of Democrats, delivering key votes last year for major pieces of legislation but first extracting concessions from leadership. More recently, he said he is prepared to support overturning the Inflation Reduction Act if the administration does not implement it properly and voted with Republicans to overturn a Biden administration rule on truck emissions.

The two-term moderate Democrat says he won’t decide on a run before December and is likely to watch the primary and see how things unfold before making the call.

But Republicans are gearing up as if Manchin will be on the ballot once again.

“Sen. Manchin is formidable. We all know that,” Capito said in a brief interview. “It’ll be a barnburner, that’s for sure.”

Manchin, for his part, issued a statement shortly before Justice announced his run, both boasting of his electoral prowess and contributing to speculation he may have other aspirations.

“But make no mistake, I will win any race I enter,” he said. Montana

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) leaves a closed-door House Republican Conference meeting on Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington, D.C. (Greg Nash)

Unlike in West Virginia, the first half of the equation is complete for Democrats as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) announced earlier this year that he will seek a fourth term, giving the party a real chance in one of the two reddest states on the map.

Now, it’sa matter of getting him across the finish line as Republicans try to find a candidate able to deny him six more years in Washington.

For the GOP and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the two names that continue to pop up are businessman Tim Sheehy, a friend of Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R) as they try to find someone (and anyone) who isn’t Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) to square off with Tester.

“We need to get the right candidate in a state like that. … Rosendale can’t do it,” one GOP operative said, adding they suspect Tester ran in part because of the chances Rosendale would win the nomination.

Tester defeated Rosendale by 4.5 points in 2018.

Despite the state’s red hue — Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020 — Democrats remain confident in Tester, who is trying to keep his focus on all things local. Last week was a prime example as he announced a blockade of all Biden administration nominees to Amtrak’s board of directors over the lack of Western representation.

“No matter who his opponent is, they’re not from Montana,” the Democratic operative said. “There’s nobody more Montana than Jon Tester.” Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)

The Buckeye State fills out the political triumvirate of incumbent Democrats in red states that the GOP is trying to knock off as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) tries to nab a fourth term.

So far, two top-tier candidates have jumped into the race to replace Brown — Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno, both of whom ran in 2022 — while two others — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Rep. Warren Davidson — are eyeing potential bids.

Most are considered viable candidates to defeat Brown, though questions remain about Davidson given his lack of financial prowess or statewide name-ID.

“It’s wide open. Even more wide open than last time,” a second GOP operative told The Hill. “If you don’t have $10+ million, it’s almost not plausible [to complete]. That’s the first, second and third hurdle for anyone.”

Republicans believe Brown will be tough to take out, no matter who emerges. But they are leaning on the shift to the right the state has undergone over the last eight years to carry the day for them.

“Very tough,” the second operative said of how difficult it will be to topple Brown. “He has never run in the new Ohio — in the ruby red Ohio. … The wind has always been at his back, it’s never been at his face, but he’s not to be underestimated.” Arizona

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)

The Arizona Senate race is by far the most complicated contest on this list as questions surround the future of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who left the Democratic Party last year and has not said whether she’ll mount a reelection bid.

Sinema this week once again demurred when asked during an interview about her future plans.

But as things stand, a three-way race is shaping up between her, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and an unknown Republican, with murmurs centering on whether former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake will seek the seat.

If she does, she is the likely favorite to win the party nomination over Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who officially launched his bid earlier this month.

But if she doesn’t, the door opens to a possible reprisal bid by Blake Masters, who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) in 2022, and Jim Lamon, who was defeated by Masters in the primary.

Establishment forces, meanwhile, are holding out hope that Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Lake last summer, will run. One Arizona-based GOP operative said that she is “really considering” that possibility.

“It’s a really big mess,” the first GOP operative said. “That field is far from set. … Among the races that should be getable, it’s going to be the toughest.”

While Gallego is considered the favorite in the race writ large given the uncertainty surrounding Sinema and Lake’s likely struggles to win moderate support, some figures don’t count the incumbent senator out when all is said and done.

“The secret sauce is that she’s like teflon. Nothing sticks to her. … But is she a spoiler or can she win? It’s too early to know,” the Arizona-based GOP operative said. ”She is tenacious. She is smart and she will work hard. The question I’ve been asking is: How much does she want it?”

National Democrats are still refusing to put their finger on the scale yet and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is telling donors to lay low as they await Sinema’s decision, the Democratic operative said. Pennsylvania

Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.) is seen during a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on Wednesday, March 22, 2023 to discuss the upcoming price hike for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine. (Greg Nash)

Of the five Democrats on this list, no one is in a better position to secure reelection than Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) as Republicans brace for a bruising primary battle between the establishment and hardcore right-wing factions of the party.

Ask almost any Republican in the Keystone State and they’ll say the GOP’s chances to defeat Casey are zilch if David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates who lost the state’s Senate primary to Mehmet Oz last year, isn’t the nominee.

McCormick has said for months that he is undecided about a bid, but he’s done everything in that time to tee himself up for another run, including meeting with party leaders across the state and releasing a book.

He also has the full backing of the NRSC and SLF to boot.

“He’s worked very hard at being visible, being at the right places talking to the right people and is prepared to run a race he wasn’t last time around,” one Pennsylvania-based GOP operative said. “[The 2022 primary] wasn’t a race he built a base for. This time he has a base.”

However, the possibility of a primary bid by state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), who Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) defeated by nearly 15 points in November for the right to lead the state, continues to be of concern for many within the party who worry he would cost the party the seat outright if he is the nominee.

Even former President Trump is reportedly worried about the possibility as Mastriano continues to float a possible bid.

UK

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died, her family says

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21 mins ago

April 26, 2025

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Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died, her family says

Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.

In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in the Perth suburb of Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.

“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.

“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.

“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.

“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”

Police said emergency services received reports of an unresponsive woman at a property in Neergabby on Friday night.

“Police and St John Western Australia attended and provided emergency first aid. Sadly, the 41-year-old woman was declared deceased at the scene,” a police spokeswoman said.

“The death is being investigated by Major Crime detectives; early indication is the death is not suspicious.”

Sexual assault claims

Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.

In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.

She stuck by her version of events until the end

Of the many dozens of victims of Jeffrey Epstein, it was Virginia Giuffre who became the most high-profile.

She was among the loudest and most compelling voices, urging criminal charges to be brought against Epstein, waving her right to anonymity in 2015.

She told how he and Ghislaine Maxwell groomed her and “passed around like a platter of fruit” to be used by rich and powerful men.

But her name and face became known around the world after she accused Prince Andrew of sexually abusing her when she was 17 years old.

The picture of her together with the prince and Maxwell at the top of a staircase, his hand around her waist, is the defining image of the whole scandal.

Prince Andrew said he had no memory of the occasion. But Giuffre stuck by her version of events until the end.

‘An incredible champion’

Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, said in a statement that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.

“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”

“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.

Dini von Mueffling, Ms Giuffre’s representative, also said that “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know”.

“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims,” she added. “She adored her children and many animals.

“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words.

“It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”

Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.

Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.

She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.

Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.

‘A survivor’

After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.

She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.

“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”

:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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Who will be at the Pope’s funeral – and who won’t be

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21 mins ago

April 26, 2025

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Who will be at the Pope's funeral - and who won't be

The Pope’s funeral will take place today at St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican.

A pope’s funeral traditionally brings world leaders together, and some have already revealed they are attending.

Watch full coverage of the Pope’s funeral live on Sky News from 8am

Here’s a look at the list.

Prince William

The Prince of Wales will attend the funeral of Pope Francis on behalf of the King, Kensington Palace has said.

The King was in Rome with Queen Camilla earlier this month, and met the pontiff at the Vatican.

The trip came just a week-and-a-half after Buckingham Palace confirmed the King had been taken to hospital following side effects related to his ongoing cancer treatment.

Sir Keir Starmer

Number 10 has confirmed the prime minister received an invite and will attend the ceremony.

Speaking on Tuesday, Sir Keir said there had been “an outpouring of grief and love” for the Pope.

He added: “I think it reflects the high esteem in which he was held, not just by millions and millions of Catholics, but by many others, across the world, myself included.”

Donald Trump

The US president was one of the first to confirm he would be flying to Rome, adding he would be joined by first lady Melania Trump.

Writing on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday, he said: “Melania and I will be going to the funeral of Pope Francis, in Rome. We look forward to being there!”

The Pope had been critical of Mr Trump at times during his tenure.

In January, he said it would be a “disgrace” if the president went ahead with his crackdown on immigration, telling an Italian television station: “It would make the migrants, who have nothing, pay the unpaid bill.

“It doesn’t work. You don’t resolve problems this way.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

The Ukrainian president, who met the Pope three times, is expected to attend, according to officials in Ukraine.

In his tribute, Mr Zelenskyy said his country was grieving the Pope and recalled how he often prayed for peace in Ukraine.

Emmanuel Macron

The French president told local reporters he would be going to the funeral.

In his tribute on Monday, Mr Macron said of the Pope: “In this time of war and brutality, he had a sense for the other, for the most fragile.”

Javier Milei

The president of Pope Francis’s native Argentina will attend, despite having launched insults at Francis in recent years.

Before taking office in December 2023, the far-right politician called him “an imbecile, the representative of evil on Earth”.

Mr Milei alluded to their “differences” in his tribute to the late Pope, writing: “It is with profound sorrow that I learned this sad morning that Pope Francis, Jorge Bergoglio, passed away today and is now resting in peace.

“Despite differences that seem minor today, having been able to know him in his goodness and wisdom was a true honour for me.”

Lula da Silva

The Brazilian president and first lady Janja Lula da Silva will be at the funeral, the country’s government announced.

Brazil has also declared a seven-day mourning period for the Pope.

“Humanity is today losing a voice of respect and welcome for others,” the president said in his tribute.

“Pope Francis lived and propagated in his daily life the love, tolerance and solidarity that are the basis of Christian
teachings.”

Ursula von der Leyen

The EU Commission President confirmed she would be attending after calling Francis a worldwide inspiration.

“He inspired millions, far beyond the Catholic Church, with his humility and love so pure for the less fortunate,” she said in her tribute.

Council President Antonio Costa, Parliament President Roberta Metsola are also expected to attend.

Here are some of the other notable attendees:

• Ireland’s taoiseach Micheal Martin
• Spain’s King Felipe and Queen Letizia
• Albanian president Bajram Begaj
• Angola’s president Joao Lourenco
• Austrian president Alexander Van der Bellen
• Bangladesh’s chief adviser and interim leader Muhammad Yunus
• Belgium’s King Philippe and Queen Mathilde, along with prime minister Bart De Wever
• Canada’s governor general Mary Simon
• Cape Verde president Jose Maria Neves
• Croatia’s president Zoran Milanovic
• Cyprian president Nikos Christodoulides
• Czech Republic’s prime minister Petr Fiala
• Democratic Republic of Congo president Felix Tshisekedi
• Dominican Republic’s president Luis Abinader
• East Timor’s president Jose Ramos-Horta
• Ecuador’s president Daniel Noboa
• Estonia’s president Alar Karis
• Finland’s president Alexander Stubb
• Gabon’s president Brice Oligui Nguema
• German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier and outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz
• Greece’s prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis
• Honduras president Xiomara Castro
• Hungary’s president Tamas Sulyok
• Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella and prime minister Giorgia Meloni
• Latvian president Edgars Rinkevics
• Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda
• Moldova’s president Maia Sandu
• Netherlands’ prime minister Dick Schoof
• New Zealand’s prime minister Christopher Luxon
• Norway’s Crown Prince Haakon and Crown Princess Mette-Marit
• The Philippines’ president Ferdinand Marcos Jr
• Poland’s president Andrzej Duda
• Portugal’s president Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and prime minister Luis Montenegro
• Romania’s interim president Ilie Bolojan
• Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf, Queen Silvia and prime minister Ulf Kristersson
• Switzerland’s president Karin Keller-Sutter

Who won’t be there?

Vladimir Putin

The Russian president will not be attending the funeral, the Kremlin has confirmed.

But the controversial leader paid tribute to the Pope, writing a message to Cardinal Kevin Farrell, who is interim chief of the Catholic Church.

“Please accept my most sincere condolences on the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis,” Mr Putin said.

“Throughout the years of his pontificate, he actively promoted the development of dialogue between the Russian
Orthodox and Roman Catholic churches, as well as constructive cooperation between Russia and the Holy See.”

Benjamin Netanyahu

The Israeli prime minister is not expected to attend, with the country’s ambassador Yaron Sideman going instead.

The Jewish state and the Vatican have had strong relations in the past, with Israel sending a presidential delegation to the funeral of Pope John Paul II in 2005, and Pope Francis visiting Israel in 2014.

But their relationship has deteriorated since the start of the war in Gaza.

A month after the conflict started in 2023, a dispute broke out over whether Pope Francis had used the word “genocide” to describe events in Gaza. Palestinians who met with him said he did, but the Vatican said he did not.

The Pope met relatives of Israeli hostages on the same day.

Israeli officials have since lobbied the Vatican to be more forceful in its condemnation of Hamas.

In January, the Pope called the humanitarian situation in Gaza “shameful”, prompting criticism from Rome’s chief rabbi, Riccardo Di Segni, who accused Francis of “selective indignation”.

Rabbi Di Segni says he will be attending the funeral, despite it taking place on the Jewish sabbath.

Is there a seating plan?

The seats are assigned in advance, with the heads of state sitting in French alphabetical order based on their country’s name, rather than on the individual’s.

This applies to everyone apart from the presidents of Italy and Argentina, who get the best seats because the Pope lived in Italy and was an Argentinian native.

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Vincent Nichols: British cardinal who will be in the conclave says picking the next pope is ‘intimidating’

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21 mins ago

April 26, 2025

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Vincent Nichols: British cardinal who will be in the conclave says picking the next pope is 'intimidating'

The head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales has told Sky News it’s “intimidating” to be one of those responsible for choosing the next pope.

Vincent Nichols is among four UK cardinals in Rome for the Pope’s funeral on Saturday.

Following the funeral, and after nine days of mourning, cardinals from around the world will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel to cast their votes, with white smoke announcing to the world when a new pope has been elected.

Cardinal Nichols told Sky’s Anna Botting: “I hope nobody goes into this conclave, as it were, with the sole purpose of wanting to win. I think it’s very important that we go in wanting to listen to each other… It has to be together, trying to sense what God wants next. Not just for the church.”

He described the procession that took Pope Francis to lie in state as “the most moving thing I’ve ever attended here”.

Describing the Pope as a “master of the gesture and the phrase”, he also recalled the pontiff’s last journey away from the Vatican.

Cardinal Nichols said Pope Francis had visited the Regina Coeli prison, telling the inmates: “You know, except for the grace of God, it could well have been me … Don’t lose hope, God has you written in his heart.”

The Pope later told his doctor his last regret was not being able to wash the feet of the prisoners during that visit.

Becoming emotional, he also said the final message he would like to have given Pope Francis is “thank you”.

The 88-year-old died peacefully on Easter Monday, the Vatican confirmed.

Heads of state – including Sir Keir Starmer, Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron – have all confirmed their attendance at his funeral, which takes place on Saturday at St Peter’s Square.

Prince William will attend on behalf of the King, Kensington Palace has said.

You can watch full coverage of the funeral live on Sky News on Saturday

Talking about the seating plan at the funeral, Cardinal Nichols said he understood it to be “royalty first, then heads of state, then political leaders”.

Cardinal Nichols explained event would be “exactly the same Catholic rite as everyone else – just on a grander scale”.

In a break from tradition, Pope Francis will be the first pope in a century to be interred outside the Vatican – and will instead be laid to rest at his favourite church, Santa Maria Maggiore Basilica in Rome’s Esquilino neighbourhood.

He will also be buried in just one simple wooden coffin, instead of the traditional three coffins which are usually used for pontiffs.

Born in Crosby near Liverpool, Cardinal Vincent Nichols hoped to be a lorry driver as a child – but as a teenager reportedly felt the calling to join the priesthood while watching Liverpool FC.

As cardinal, he is known for leading the church’s work tackling human trafficking and modern slavery, for which he received the UN Path to Peace Award.

He was criticised by the UK’s Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, which said he “demonstrated a lack of understanding” of the impact of abuse and “seemingly put the reputation of the church first”.

Cardinal Nichols, responding to the findings, previously told Sky News he was “ashamed at what has happened in the context of the Catholic Church” and promised to improve the church’s response.

He has appeared to rule himself out of the running for pope, telling reporters he was “too old, not capable”.