Midterms were only six months ago but the 2024 campaign season is already firing on all cylinders as races ramp up for the Senate seats that will determine control of the upper chamber.
Republicans are on offense as they search for the top candidates to take down a cadre of incumbent Democrats who have survived cycle upon cycle. At stake is the Democrats one-seat majority as they play defense in ruby-red states that Republicans are licking their chops to win.
Here’s an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year: West Virginia
West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice speaks during an announcement for his U.S. Senate campaign, Thursday, April 27, 2023, at The Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. (AP Photo/Chris Jackson)
The state has long been expected to be at the center of the fight for the Senate but that battle heated up last week when Gov. Jim Justice (R) announced his bid to replace Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), handing the GOP one of its top recruits on the 2024 map.
Justice immediately becomes the favorite for the GOP nod. Polling is showing him likely to prevail, and the National Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, backed by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), signaling their support.
Top senators are also on board, including Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who appeared with him on Thursday night and labeled him a “powerhouse.”
But he still faces a tough road against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), a pro-Trump conservative who showed his mettle last year by ousting Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) in a primary spawned by redistricting. The Club for Growth has also said they are prepared to drop $10 million to back Mooney.
“Justice is 50-50 to just be the nominee,” one Democratic operative told The Hill, noting that he was a Democrat not long ago. Senate GOP smells blood as Justice launches Manchin challenge
The winner of the primary takes on Manchin in a state former President Trump won by almost 40 points.
Manchin has been both a linchpin and thorn in the side of Democrats, delivering key votes last year for major pieces of legislation but first extracting concessions from leadership. More recently, he said he is prepared to support overturning the Inflation Reduction Act if the administration does not implement it properly and voted with Republicans to overturn a Biden administration rule on truck emissions.
The two-term moderate Democrat says he won’t decide on a run before December and is likely to watch the primary and see how things unfold before making the call.
But Republicans are gearing up as if Manchin will be on the ballot once again.
“Sen. Manchin is formidable. We all know that,” Capito said in a brief interview. “It’ll be a barnburner, that’s for sure.”
Manchin, for his part, issued a statement shortly before Justice announced his run, both boasting of his electoral prowess and contributing to speculation he may have other aspirations.
“But make no mistake, I will win any race I enter,” he said. Montana
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) leaves a closed-door House Republican Conference meeting on Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington, D.C. (Greg Nash)
Unlike in West Virginia, the first half of the equation is complete for Democrats as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) announced earlier this year that he will seek a fourth term, giving the party a real chance in one of the two reddest states on the map.
Now, it’sa matter of getting him across the finish line as Republicans try to find a candidate able to deny him six more years in Washington.
For the GOP and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the two names that continue to pop up are businessman Tim Sheehy, a friend of Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R) as they try to find someone (and anyone) who isn’t Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) to square off with Tester.
“We need to get the right candidate in a state like that. … Rosendale can’t do it,” one GOP operative said, adding they suspect Tester ran in part because of the chances Rosendale would win the nomination.
Tester defeated Rosendale by 4.5 points in 2018.
Despite the state’s red hue — Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020 — Democrats remain confident in Tester, who is trying to keep his focus on all things local. Last week was a prime example as he announced a blockade of all Biden administration nominees to Amtrak’s board of directors over the lack of Western representation.
“No matter who his opponent is, they’re not from Montana,” the Democratic operative said. “There’s nobody more Montana than Jon Tester.” Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)
The Buckeye State fills out the political triumvirate of incumbent Democrats in red states that the GOP is trying to knock off as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) tries to nab a fourth term.
So far, two top-tier candidates have jumped into the race to replace Brown — Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno, both of whom ran in 2022 — while two others — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Rep. Warren Davidson — are eyeing potential bids.
Most are considered viable candidates to defeat Brown, though questions remain about Davidson given his lack of financial prowess or statewide name-ID.
“It’s wide open. Even more wide open than last time,” a second GOP operative told The Hill. “If you don’t have $10+ million, it’s almost not plausible [to complete]. That’s the first, second and third hurdle for anyone.”
Republicans believe Brown will be tough to take out, no matter who emerges. But they are leaning on the shift to the right the state has undergone over the last eight years to carry the day for them.
“Very tough,” the second operative said of how difficult it will be to topple Brown. “He has never run in the new Ohio — in the ruby red Ohio. … The wind has always been at his back, it’s never been at his face, but he’s not to be underestimated.” Arizona
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)
The Arizona Senate race is by far the most complicated contest on this list as questions surround the future of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who left the Democratic Party last year and has not said whether she’ll mount a reelection bid.
Sinema this week once again demurred when asked during an interview about her future plans.
But as things stand, a three-way race is shaping up between her, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and an unknown Republican, with murmurs centering on whether former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake will seek the seat.
If she does, she is the likely favorite to win the party nomination over Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who officially launched his bid earlier this month.
But if she doesn’t, the door opens to a possible reprisal bid by Blake Masters, who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) in 2022, and Jim Lamon, who was defeated by Masters in the primary.
Establishment forces, meanwhile, are holding out hope that Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Lake last summer, will run. One Arizona-based GOP operative said that she is “really considering” that possibility.
“It’s a really big mess,” the first GOP operative said. “That field is far from set. … Among the races that should be getable, it’s going to be the toughest.”
While Gallego is considered the favorite in the race writ large given the uncertainty surrounding Sinema and Lake’s likely struggles to win moderate support, some figures don’t count the incumbent senator out when all is said and done.
“The secret sauce is that she’s like teflon. Nothing sticks to her. … But is she a spoiler or can she win? It’s too early to know,” the Arizona-based GOP operative said. ”She is tenacious. She is smart and she will work hard. The question I’ve been asking is: How much does she want it?”
National Democrats are still refusing to put their finger on the scale yet and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is telling donors to lay low as they await Sinema’s decision, the Democratic operative said. Pennsylvania
Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.) is seen during a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on Wednesday, March 22, 2023 to discuss the upcoming price hike for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine. (Greg Nash)
Of the five Democrats on this list, no one is in a better position to secure reelection than Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) as Republicans brace for a bruising primary battle between the establishment and hardcore right-wing factions of the party.
Ask almost any Republican in the Keystone State and they’ll say the GOP’s chances to defeat Casey are zilch if David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates who lost the state’s Senate primary to Mehmet Oz last year, isn’t the nominee.
McCormick has said for months that he is undecided about a bid, but he’s done everything in that time to tee himself up for another run, including meeting with party leaders across the state and releasing a book.
He also has the full backing of the NRSC and SLF to boot.
“He’s worked very hard at being visible, being at the right places talking to the right people and is prepared to run a race he wasn’t last time around,” one Pennsylvania-based GOP operative said. “[The 2022 primary] wasn’t a race he built a base for. This time he has a base.”
However, the possibility of a primary bid by state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), who Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) defeated by nearly 15 points in November for the right to lead the state, continues to be of concern for many within the party who worry he would cost the party the seat outright if he is the nominee.
Even former President Trump is reportedly worried about the possibility as Mastriano continues to float a possible bid.
The cost of having staff is going up this Sunday as the increase in employers’ national insurance kicks in.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in the October budget employers will have to pay a 15% rate of national insurance contributions (NIC) on their employees from 6 April – up from 13.8%.
She also lowered the threshold at which employers pay NIC from £9,100 a year to £5,000 a year, meaning they start paying at an earlier point on staff salaries.
This is on top of the national minimum wage rising, the business relief rate for hospitality, retail and leisure reducing from 75% to 40% and the rising cost of ingredients and services.
Sky News spoke to people working in some of the industries that will be hardest hit by the rise in NIC: Nurseries, hospitality, retail, small businesses and care.
NURSERIES
Nearly all (96% of 728) nurseries surveyed by the National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA) said they will have no choice but to put up fees because of the NIC rise, leaving parents to pick up the shortfall.
More on Cost Of Living
Related Topics:
The NDNA has warned nurseries could close due to the rise, with 14% saying their business is at risk, 69% reducing spending on resources and 39% considering offering fewer places with government-funded hours as 92% said they do not cover their costs.
Sarah has two children, with her youngest starting later this month, but they were just informed fees will now be £92 a day – compared with £59 at the same nursery when her eldest started five years ago.
“I’m not sure how we will afford this. Our salaries haven’t increased by 50% during this time,” she said.
“We’re stuck as there aren’t enough nursery spaces in our area, so we will have to struggle.”
Karen Richards, director of the Wolds Childcare group in Nottinghamshire, has started a petition to get the government to exempt private nurseries – the majority of providers – from the NIC changes as she said it is unfair nurseries in schools do not have to pay the NIC.
She told Sky News she will have to find about £183,000 next year to cover the increase across her five nurseries and reducing staff numbers is “not off the table” but it is more likely they will reduce the number of children they have.
Image: Joeli Brearley, founder of Pregnant Then Screwed, said parents are yet again having to pay the price for the government’s actions. Pic: Pregnant Then Screwed
Joeli Brearley, founder of the Pregnant Then Screwed campaign group, told Sky News: “Parents are already drowning in childcare costs, and now, thanks to the national insurance hike, nurseries are passing even more fees on to families who simply can’t afford it.
“It’s the same story every time – parents pay the price while the government looks the other way. How exactly are we meant to ‘boost the economy’ when we can’t even afford to go to work?”
Purnima Tanuku, executive chair of the NDNA, said staffing costs make up about 75% of nurseries’ costs and they will have to find £2,600 more per employee to pay for the NIC rise – £47,000 for an average nursery.
“The government says it wants to offer ‘cheaper childcare’ for parents on the one hand but then with the other expects nurseries to absorb the costs of National Insurance Contributions themselves,” she told Sky News.
“High-quality early education and care gives children the best start in life and enables parents to work. The government must invest in this vital infrastructure to make sure nurseries can continue to deliver this social and economic good.”
HOSPITALITY
The hospitality industry has warned of closures, price rises, lack of growth and shorter opening hours.
Dan Brod, co-owner of The Beckford Group, a small southwest England restaurant and country pub/hotel group, said the economic situation now is “much worse” than during COVID.
The group has put plans for two more projects on hold and Mr Brod said the only option is to put up prices, but with the rising supplier costs, wages, business rates and NIC hike they will “stay still” financially.
Image: Dan Brod, co-owner of The Beckford Group, said the government does not value hospitality as an industry. Pic: The Beckford Group
He told Sky News: “What we’re nervous about is we’re still in the cost of living crisis and even though our places are in very wealthy areas of the country, Wiltshire, Somerset and Bath, people are feeling the situation in their pockets, people are going out less.”
Mr Brod said they are not getting rid of any staff as their business strongly depends on the quality of their hospitality so they are having to make savings elsewhere.
“I’m still optimistic, I still feel that humans need hospitality but we’re not valued as an industry and the social benefit is never taken into account by government.”
Image: Chef/owner Aktar Islam, who runs Opheem in Birmingham, said the rise will cost him up to £120,000 more this year. Pic: Opheem
Aktar Islam, owner/chef at two Michelin-starred Opheem in Birmingham, said the NIC rise will cost him up to £120,000 more in staff costs a year and to maintain the financial position he is in now they would have to make “another million pounds”.
He got emails from eight suppliers on Thursday saying they were raising their costs, and said he will have to raise prices but is concerned about the impact on diners.
The restaurateur hires four commis chefs to train each year but will not be able to this year, or the next few.
“It’s very short-sighted of the government, you’re not going to grow the economy by taxing hospitality out of existence, these sort of businesses are the lifeblood of our economy,” he said.
“They think if a hospitality business closes another will open but people know it’s tough, why would they want to do that? It’s not going to happen.”
The chef sent hundreds of his “at home” kits to fellow chefs this week for their staff as an acknowledgement of how much of a “s*** show” the situation is – “a little hug from us”.
RETAIL
Some of the UK’s biggest retailers, including Tesco, Boots, Marks & Spencer and Next, wrote to Rachel Reeves after the budget to say the NIC hike would lead to higher consumer prices, smaller pay rises, job cuts and store closures.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC), representing more than 200 major retailers and brands, said the costs are so significant neither small or large retailers will be able to absorb them.
Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, told the Treasury committee in November that job losses due to the NIC changes were likely to be higher than the 50,000 forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Image: Big retailers have warned the NIC rise will lead to higher prices, job cuts and store closures. File pic: PA
Nick Stowe, chief executive of Monsoon and Accessorize, said retailers had the choice of protecting staff numbers or cancelling investment plans.
He said they were trying to protect staff numbers and would be increasing prices but they would likely have to halt plans to increase store numbers.
Helen Dickinson, head of the BRC, told Sky News the national living wage rise and NIC increase will cost businesses £5bn, adding more than 10% to the cost of hiring someone in an entry-level role.
A further tax on packaging coming in October means retailers will face £7bn in extra costs this year, she said.
“This huge cost burden will undoubtedly reduce investment in stores and jobs and is likely to lead to higher prices,” she added.
SMALL BUSINESSES
A massive 85% of 1,400 small business owners surveyed by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) in March reported rising costs compared with the same time last year, with 47% citing tax as the main barrier to growth – the highest level in more than a decade.
Just 8% of those businesses saw an increase in staff numbers over the last quarter, while 21% had to reduce their workforce.
Kate Rumsey, whose family has run Rumsey’s Chocolates in Wendover, Buckinghamshire and Thame, Oxfordshire, for 21 years, said the NIC rise, minimum wage increase and business relief rate reduction will push her staff costs up by 15 to 17% – £70,000 to £80,000 annually.
To offset those costs, she has had to reduce opening hours, including closing on Sundays and bank holidays in one shop for the first time ever, make one person redundant, not replace short-term staff and introduce a hiring freeze.
The soaring price of cocoa has added to her woes and she has had to increase prices by about 10% and will raise them further.
Image: Kate Rumsey, who runs Rumsey’s Chocolates in Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire, said they are being forced to take a short-term view to survive. Pic: Rumsey’s Chocolates
She told Sky News: “We’re very much taking more of a short-term view at the moment, it’s so seasonal in this business so I said to the team we’ll just get through Q1 then re-evaluate.
“I feel this is a bit about the survival of the fittest and many businesses won’t survive.”
Tina McKenzie, policy chair of the FSB, said the NIC rise “holds back growth” and has seen small business confidence drop to its lowest point since the first year of the pandemic.
With the “highest tax burden for 70 years”, she called on the chancellor to introduce a “raft of pro-small business measures” in the autumn budget so it can deliver on its pledge for growth.
She reminded employers they can claim the Employment Allowance, which has doubled after an FSB campaign to take the first £10,500 off an employer’s annual bill.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:46
National Insurance rise impacts carers
CARE
The care sector has been warning the government since the October that budget care homes will be forced to close due to the financial pressures the employers’ national insurance rise will place on them.
Care homes receive funding from councils as well as from private fees, but as local authorities feel the squeeze more and more their contributions are not keeping up with rising costs.
The industry has argued without it the NHS would be crippled.
Raj Sehgal, founding director of ArmsCare, a family-run group of six care homes in Norfolk, said the NIC increase means a £360,000 annual impact on the group’s £3.6m payroll.
In an attempt to offset those costs, the group is scrapping staff bonuses and freezing management salaries.
It is also considering reducing day hours, where there are more staff on, so the fewer numbers of night staff work longer hours and with no paid break.
Image: Raj Sehgal said his family-owned group of care homes will need £360,000 extra this year for the NIC hike
Mr Sehgal said: “But what that does do unfortunately, is impact the quality you’re going to be able to provide, at a time when we need to be improving quality, but something has to give.
“The government just doesn’t seem to understand that the funding needs to be there. You cannot keep enforcing higher costs on businesses and not be able to fund those without actually finding the money from somewhere.”
He said the issue is exacerbated by the fact local authority funding, despite increasing to 5%, will not cover the 10% rise.
“It’s going to be a really, really tough ride. And we are going to see a number of providers close their doors,” he warned.
Nadra Ahmed, executive co-chair of the National Care Association, said those who receive, or are waiting to access, care as well as staff will feel the impact the hardest.
“As providers see further shortfalls in the commissioning of care services, they will start to limit what they can do to ensure their viability or, as a last resort exit the market,” she said.
“This is very short-sighted, with serious consequences, which alludes to the understanding of this government.”
Government decided to ‘wipe the slate clean’
A Treasury spokesperson told Sky News the government is “pro-business” but has “taken the difficult but necessary decisions to wipe the slate clean and properly fund our public services after years of declines”.
“Our budget choices have already delivered an NHS with falling waiting lists, a £3.7bn rescue package for social care, and vital protection for Britain’s small businesses,” they said.
“We’re making tough choices today to secure a better tomorrow through our Plan for Change. By investing in economic growth and early years education while capping corporation tax, we’re putting more money in working people’s pockets and giving every child the best start in life.”
Russell Brand has been charged with rape and two counts of sexual assault between 1999 and 2005.
The Metropolitan Police say the 50-year-old comedian, actor and author has also been charged with one count of oral rape and one count of indecent assault.
The charges relate to four women.
He is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Friday 2 May.
Police have said Brand is accused of raping a woman in the Bournemouth area in 1999 and indecently assaulting a woman in the Westminster area of London in 2001.
He is also accused of orally raping and sexually assaulting a woman in Westminster in 2004.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:59
Ashna Hurynag discusses Russell Brand’s charges
The fourth charge alleges that a woman was sexually assaulted in Westminster between 2004 and 2005.
Police began investigating Brand, from Oxfordshire, in September 2023 after receiving a number of allegations.
The comedian has denied the accusations and said he has “never engaged in non-consensual activity”.
He added in a video on X: “Of course, I am now going to have the opportunity to defend these charges in court, and I’m incredibly grateful for that.”
Metropolitan Police Detective Superintendent Andy Furphy, who is leading the investigation, said: “The women who have made reports continue to receive support from specially trained officers.
“The Met’s investigation remains open and detectives ask anyone who has been affected by this case, or anyone who has any information, to come forward and speak with police.”
Search teams are looking for a 16-year-old boy who went missing after “getting into difficulty” in a lake in southeast London.
Officers and paramedics were called shortly after 3pm on Friday to Beckenham Place Park in Lewisham.
The Metropolitan Police said the boy’s family has been told and are being supported by specialist officers.
In a statement, officers added that emergency services are “co-ordinating a search” and “the park has been evacuated”.
Beckenham Place Park, which borders the London borough of Bromley, covers around 240 acres, according to the park’s website.
Image: Emergency teams were called to Beckenham Place Park on Friday afternoon
The lake is described as 285 metres long, reaching depths of up to 3.5 metres. It is designed as a swimming lake for open-water swimming and paddle boarding.
A London Ambulance Service spokesperson said: “We were called at 3.02pm this afternoon to reports of a person in the water.
More from UK
“We sent resources to the scene, including an ambulance crew, an incident response officer and members of our hazardous area response team.
“We are still at the scene working alongside our emergency services partners.”
Emergency teams have not explained how the boy entered the water, or whether he was accompanied by others.