Connect with us

Published

on

Midterms were only six months ago but the 2024 campaign season is already firing on all cylinders as races ramp up for the Senate seats that will determine control of the upper chamber.

Republicans are on offense as they search for the top candidates to take down a cadre of incumbent Democrats who have survived cycle upon cycle. At stake is the Democrats one-seat majority as they play defense in ruby-red states that Republicans are licking their chops to win. 

Here’s an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year: West Virginia

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice speaks during an announcement for his U.S. Senate campaign, Thursday, April 27, 2023, at The Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. (AP Photo/Chris Jackson)

The state has long been expected to be at the center of the fight for the Senate but that battle heated up last week when Gov. Jim Justice (R) announced his bid to replace Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), handing the GOP one of its top recruits on the 2024 map.

Justice immediately becomes the favorite for the GOP nod. Polling is showing him likely to prevail, and the National Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, backed by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), signaling their support.

Top senators are also on board, including Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who appeared with him on Thursday night and labeled him a “powerhouse.” 

But he still faces a tough road against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), a pro-Trump conservative who showed his mettle last year by ousting Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) in a primary spawned by redistricting. The Club for Growth has also said they are prepared to drop $10 million to back Mooney. 

“Justice is 50-50 to just be the nominee,” one Democratic operative told The Hill, noting that he was a Democrat not long ago.  Senate GOP smells blood as Justice launches Manchin challenge

The winner of the primary takes on Manchin in a state former President Trump won by almost 40 points.

Manchin has been both a linchpin and thorn in the side of Democrats, delivering key votes last year for major pieces of legislation but first extracting concessions from leadership. More recently, he said he is prepared to support overturning the Inflation Reduction Act if the administration does not implement it properly and voted with Republicans to overturn a Biden administration rule on truck emissions. 

The two-term moderate Democrat says he won’t decide on a run before December and is likely to watch the primary and see how things unfold before making the call. 

But Republicans are gearing up as if Manchin will be on the ballot once again.

“Sen. Manchin is formidable. We all know that,” Capito said in a brief interview. “It’ll be a barnburner, that’s for sure.”

Manchin, for his part, issued a statement shortly before Justice announced his run, both boasting of his electoral prowess and contributing to speculation he may have other aspirations.

“But make no mistake, I will win any race I enter,” he said. Montana

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) leaves a closed-door House Republican Conference meeting on Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington, D.C. (Greg Nash)

Unlike in West Virginia, the first half of the equation is complete for Democrats as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) announced earlier this year that he will seek a fourth term, giving the party a real chance in one of the two reddest states on the map. 

Now, it’sa matter of getting him across the finish line as Republicans try to find a candidate able to deny him six more years in Washington. 

For the GOP and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the two names that continue to pop up are businessman Tim Sheehy, a friend of Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R) as they try to find someone (and anyone) who isn’t Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) to square off with Tester.  

“We need to get the right candidate in a state like that. … Rosendale can’t do it,” one GOP operative said, adding they suspect Tester ran in part because of the chances Rosendale would win the nomination.

Tester defeated Rosendale by 4.5 points in 2018. 

Despite the state’s red hue — Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020 — Democrats remain confident in Tester, who is trying to keep his focus on all things local. Last week was a prime example as he announced a blockade of all Biden administration nominees to Amtrak’s board of directors over the lack of Western representation.  

“No matter who his opponent is, they’re not from Montana,” the Democratic operative said. “There’s nobody more Montana than Jon Tester.”  Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)

The Buckeye State fills out the political triumvirate of incumbent Democrats in red states that the GOP is trying to knock off as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) tries to nab a fourth term. 

So far, two top-tier candidates have jumped into the race to replace Brown — Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno, both of whom ran in 2022 — while two others — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Rep. Warren Davidson — are eyeing potential bids. 

Most are considered viable candidates to defeat Brown, though questions remain about Davidson given his lack of financial prowess or statewide name-ID. 

“It’s wide open. Even more wide open than last time,” a second GOP operative told The Hill. “If you don’t have $10+ million, it’s almost not plausible [to complete]. That’s the first, second and third hurdle for anyone.”

Republicans believe Brown will be tough to take out, no matter who emerges. But they are leaning on the shift to the right the state has undergone over the last eight years to carry the day for them.

“Very tough,” the second operative said of how difficult it will be to topple Brown. “He has never run in the new Ohio — in the ruby red Ohio. … The wind has always been at his back, it’s never been at his face, but he’s not to be underestimated.”  Arizona

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) arrives for an all-Senators briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., to discuss the leaked documents on a Discord chatroom by Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria. (Greg Nash)

The Arizona Senate race is by far the most complicated contest on this list as questions surround the future of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who left the Democratic Party last year and has not said whether she’ll mount a reelection bid.

Sinema this week once again demurred when asked during an interview about her future plans. 

But as things stand, a three-way race is shaping up between her, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and an unknown Republican, with murmurs centering on whether former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake will seek the seat. 

If she does, she is the likely favorite to win the party nomination over Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who officially launched his bid earlier this month. 

But if she doesn’t, the door opens to a possible reprisal bid by Blake Masters, who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) in 2022, and Jim Lamon, who was defeated by Masters in the primary. 

Establishment forces, meanwhile, are holding out hope that Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Lake last summer, will run. One Arizona-based GOP operative said that she is “really considering” that possibility. 

“It’s a really big mess,” the first GOP operative said. “That field is far from set. … Among the races that should be getable, it’s going to be the toughest.” 

While Gallego is considered the favorite in the race writ large given the uncertainty surrounding Sinema and Lake’s likely struggles to win moderate support, some figures don’t count the incumbent senator out when all is said and done. 

“The secret sauce is that she’s like teflon. Nothing sticks to her. … But is she a spoiler or can she win? It’s too early to know,” the Arizona-based GOP operative said. ”She is tenacious. She is smart and she will work hard. The question I’ve been asking is: How much does she want it?”

National Democrats are still refusing to put their finger on the scale yet and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is telling donors to lay low as they await Sinema’s decision, the Democratic operative said.  Pennsylvania

Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.) is seen during a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on Wednesday, March 22, 2023 to discuss the upcoming price hike for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine. (Greg Nash)

Of the five Democrats on this list, no one is in a better position to secure reelection than Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) as Republicans brace for a bruising primary battle between the establishment and hardcore right-wing factions of the party.

Ask almost any Republican in the Keystone State and they’ll say the GOP’s chances to defeat Casey are zilch if David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates who lost the state’s Senate primary to Mehmet Oz last year, isn’t the nominee.

McCormick has said for months that he is undecided about a bid, but he’s done everything in that time to tee himself up for another run, including meeting with party leaders across the state and releasing a book. 

He also has the full backing of the NRSC and SLF to boot. 

“He’s worked very hard at being visible, being at the right places talking to the right people and is prepared to run a race he wasn’t last time around,” one Pennsylvania-based GOP operative said. “[The 2022 primary] wasn’t a race he built a base for. This time he has a base.”

However, the possibility of a primary bid by state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), who Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) defeated by nearly 15 points in November for the right to lead the state, continues to be of concern for many within the party who worry he would cost the party the seat outright if he is the nominee. 

Even former President Trump is reportedly worried about the possibility as Mastriano continues to float a possible bid. 

Continue Reading

Entertainment

PM’s rap battle with Sky’s Beth Rigby goes viral – and one of the AI satirists behind it explains why

Published

on

By

PM's rap battle with Sky's Beth Rigby goes viral - and one of the AI satirists behind it explains why

Satire has long been an occupational hazard for politicians – and while it has long been cartoons or shows like Spitting Image, content created by artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly becoming the norm.

A new page called the Crewkerne Gazette has been going viral in recent days for their videos using the new technology to satirise Rachel Reeves and other politicians around the budget.

On Sky’s Politics Hub, our presenter Darren McCaffrey spoke to one of the people behind the viral sensations, who is trying to remain anonymous.

He said: “A lot of people are drawing comparisons between us and Spitting Image, actually, and Spitting Image was great back in the day, but I kind of feel like recently they’ve not really covered a lot of what’s happening.

“So we are the new and improved Spitting Image, the much better Have I Got News For You?”

He added that those kinds of satire shows don’t seem to be engaging with younger people – but claimed his own output is “incredibly good at doing” just that.

Examples of videos from the Crewkerne Gazette includes a rapping Kemi Badenoch and Rachel Reeves advertising leaky storage containers.

More on Beth Rigby Interviews

They even satirised our political editor Beth Rigby’s interview with the prime minister on Thursday, when he defended measures in the budget and insisted they did not break their manifesto pledge by raising taxes.

“Crewkerne Man” says providing satire for younger people is important as Labour is lowering the voting age.

Asked why he is trying to be anonymous, the man said the project is not about one person – or even the whole group – but rather their output.

He also claimed the UK is “increasingly seeing arrests – especially with comedians”, pointing to the Graham Linehan case.

“So we just never know where the Labour Party is going to drive the policy next, in regards to free speech,” he said.

“So for me, certainly it’s a matter of safety.”

Watch Beth Rigby’s actual interview with Sir Keir Starmer below.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

The prime minister defends the budget

Continue Reading

Business

Budget 2025: Hospitality pleads for ‘lifeline’ as Rachel Reeves accused of imposing ‘stealth tax’

Published

on

By

Budget 2025: Hospitality pleads for 'lifeline' as Rachel Reeves accused of imposing 'stealth tax'

Rachel Reeves has been accused of failing to “support the great British pub” as she promised in the budget, with owners facing skyrocketing business rates bills.

In her speech in the House of Commons on Wednesday, the chancellor said she was backing small businesses by introducing “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties – the lowest tax rates since 1991”.

But while the government gave itself the powers to discount the business rates bills for high street businesses through legislation earlier this year, the chancellor only implemented a reduction of a quarter of what the government is able to, and she is being accused of imposing a “stealth tax”.

It has left small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses questioning whether their businesses will be viable beyond April next year.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky’s Ed Conway looks at the aftermath of the budget and explains who the winners and losers are.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We’re protecting pubs, restaurants and cafes with the budget’s £4.3bn support package – capping bill rises so a typical independent pub will pay around £4,800 less next year than they otherwise would have.

“This comes on top of cutting licensing costs to help more venues offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping corporation tax.”

Business rates, which are a tax on commercial properties in England and Wales, are calculated through a complex formula of the value of the property, assessed by a government agency every three years, combined with a national “multiplier” set by the Treasury, giving a final cash amount.

More on Budget 2025

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been accused of imposing a "stealth tax" on hospitality businesses. Pic: PA
Image:
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been accused of imposing a “stealth tax” on hospitality businesses. Pic: PA

Over the last few years, small businesses were given business rates relief of 75% to support them over the COVID pandemic, and Ms Reeves reduced that to 40% at last year’s budget.

The idea was that at the budget this year, the chancellor would remove that remaining relief in favour of reforming the business rates system to compensate for that drop, while shifting the tax burden on to much bigger businesses and companies like Amazon with lots of warehouse space.

However, the chancellor only announced a 5p in the pound discount for small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses, rather than the assumed 20p drop which the government gave itself the powers to implement, and which trade bodies had been lobbying for.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How will your personal finances change following the budget announced by the chancellor?

On top of that, small businesses have seen the government-assessed value of their property increase dramatically, which wipes out the discount, and sees their business rates bill shoot far above what they had previously been paying.

One pub owner near Hull, Sam Caroll, has seen the assessed value of one of his two properties increase from £67,000 to £110,000 in just three years – a 64% increase.

He told Sky News that there is a “continual question” of business viability, and while he thinks they can “adapt” in the short term, “there will be a tipping point at some point”. Even at the moment, packing out their pubs seven nights a week, “it’s difficult for us to break even”, he said.

There will be a discount for small businesses to transition to the higher business rates level, but by year three, almost the full amount is expected to be payable, and Mr Carroll described it as “getting f***** slowly, instead of getting f***** overnight”.

👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈

Sean Hughes, who owns multiple hospitality venues in St Albans, has also seen vast increases in the assessed value of his properties, and was sharply critical of the transitional arrangements the government is implementing.

He told Sky News: “Fundamental business rate reform was promised and we have total chaos. If [the system] was fair, why would they need transitional relief periods?”

A spokesperson of the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), which assesses the value of commercial properties for business rates purposes, told Sky News: “At the last revaluation, some sectors including hospitality were significantly affected by the pandemic, which resulted in much lower rateable values than they would have seen otherwise. Businesses that have now seen a recovery in trade are also likely to see an increase in their rateable value.”

Read more:
Reeves accused of deliberately making UK finances look worse
Budget is a big risk for Labour’s election plans

However, Sky News has seen evidence of businesses whose assessed value did not decrease when assessed during the pandemic, but actually rose, and has risen dramatically this year.

Data compiled by the Pubs Advisory Service, shows that the number of pubs in the UK has decreased by nearly 5% in three years, but the average value of the properties has risen by an average of 36.82% per pub.

And analysis by UK Hospitality, the trade body that represents hospitality businesses, has found that over the next three years, the average pub will pay an extra £12,900 in business rates, even with the transitional arrangements, while an average hotel will see its bill soar by £205,200.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

The prime minister has defended the budget after he and the chancellor were accused of breaking their promise to voters.

The body adds that by 2028/29, an average pub’s business rates will have increased by 76% and an average hotel’s by 115%, compared to 16% for a distribution warehouse like the ones the web giants use.

It’s not just the business rates rise that is worrying owners – it is the increase in employers’ national insurance implemented at the last budget, the increase in energy bills over the last few years, and the rise in the minimum wage, particularly for young people.

With the budget set to squeeze disposal income, there is little room for price increases to make up the shortfall either.

In a letter to the chancellor on Friday, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said small business owners “have been pushed to tears as they’re hit with the bombshell of higher business rates bills”, noting that “the government has chosen not to use the full powers it gave itself to throw high streets a lifeline”.

She added that businesses had been promised “permanently lower business rates”, but it appears the government has “broken yet another promise, by imposing a stealth tax not just on people, but on treasured high street businesses too”, and called on ministers to “throw our high streets and Britain’s hospitality sector a lifeline”.

Conservative shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith published his own analysis of the government’s budget measures on Friday morning, that found they will “hammer British pubs”.

Of the chancellor, he said: “She pretended in her budget speech to be supportive, whilst the true detail is that a combination of rate revaluations and scrapping reliefs will leave most pubs paying thousands of pounds more than they cannot afford.”

Kate Nicholls, Chair of UKHospitality, said in a statement: “The government promised in its manifesto that it would level the playing field between the high street and online giants. The plan in the budget to achieve this is quickly unravelling, and will deliver the exact opposite.”

She said they “repeatedly warned the Treasury” of the impending impacted of the value reassessment, but nonetheless, hospitality businesses are now facing “eye-watering increases”.

She added: “We agree with its reforms to deliver permanently lower business rates for hospitality and we appreciate the package of transitional relief, but its current proposal is not delivering lower bills. A 20p discount for hospitality would. We urge the chancellor to revisit.”

Continue Reading

World

Software issue hits thousands of Airbus A320 planes – UK passengers warned of potential disruption

Published

on

By

Software issue hits thousands of Airbus A320 planes - UK passengers warned of potential disruption

Passengers have been warned of potential disruption after thousands of Airbus planes were hit by a software issue.

The aircraft affected are from the A320 family – which are used by numerous airlines – and need a systems update before they can fly again.

Airbus issued the alert after analysis of a flight involving an A320 showed “intense solar radiation may corrupt data critical to the functioning of flight controls”.

The Airbus A320 family is the most-delivered jetliner in history.. File pic: iStock
Image:
The Airbus A320 family is the most-delivered jetliner in history.. File pic: iStock

It is understood the incident that triggered the warning involved a JetBlue flight from Cancun, Mexico, to Newark on 30 October.

That flight was diverted to Tampa International Airport after it suffered a flight control issue and experienced a sharp loss of altitude, which injured at least 15 passengers.

An Airbus spokesperson told Sky News the software change would affect up to 6,000 planes.

The fix involves A320 aircraft reverting to an earlier software version and Airbus stressed it would only take two to three hours for most planes.

However, it said some jets would also need new hardware and therefore would be affected for longer. Industry sources estimated about 1,000 aircraft could be in this position.

America’s aviation watchdog has issued an emergency order to immediately replace or modify the software, mirroring one from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Solving Airbus software issue could take ‘several hours per aircraft’

‘Very concerning’

Gatwick said a “small number” of carriers based there were affected, but warned disruption was still possible. It urged passengers to contact their airline.

Heathrow said it wasn’t expecting any disruption.

“The good news is it seems the impact on UK airlines seems limited, with a smaller number of aircraft requiring more complex software and hardware changes,” said Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander.

She said it was “heartening this issue has been identified and will be addressed so swiftly”.

Airbus is understood to have traced the issue to the ELAC (Elevator and Aileron Computer) system, which sends commands to elevators on the plane’s tail. These in turn control the aircraft’s pitch or nose angle.

Travel expert Simon Calder said the situation was “very concerning” but stressed “aviation remains extraordinarily safe”.

He warned customers might not be entitled to compensation if they’re delayed as the issue would be considered out of airlines’ control.

Read more:
Which airlines are affected by Airbus disruption?
Why plane’s altitude drop led to thousands needing updates

What have airlines said?

EasyJet said it had already completed the software update on many aircraft and was working closely with safety authorities.

“We plan to operate our flying programme normally on Saturday and ask that customers travelling continue to monitor their flights on flight tracker,” it added.

The airline said passengers would be informed of any changes by email, SMS, or the flight tracker

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How the US is affected by Airbus software issue

British Airways said it wasn’t expecting any problems and that only three of its planes were affected.

For American Airlines – the world’s largest operator of the A320 – the issue was more significant, with 209 aircraft needing an update.

It comes on a huge travel weekend stateside as many travel home after Thanksgiving. However, the US carrier said the fix would be completed for the vast majority of its planes on Friday.

Others affected include Japan’s All Nippon Airways, which cancelled 65 domestic flights on Saturday, and Air France – which said it was cancelling 35 flights.

Ireland’s Aer Lingus said a limited number of aircraft were impacted, while Wizz Air has started the software update but said some weekend flights could still be affected.

“Passengers who booked directly with Wizz Air via the website or mobile app will be notified of any schedule changes,” the airline said.

Continue Reading

Trending