Local elections 2023: How to cut through the political spin as the results come in
There are three ways to judge how well the political parties do on election night.
First, by the number of council seats gained, secondly by the number of councils won and lost and thirdly by looking at vote shares – the proportion of people who vote for each of the main parties.
None of them will give you the full picture, however, as they battle in the early hours to give results the most positive gloss.
The fight has already begun in earnest – with parties’ claims and counterclaims about what to expect.
This is our guide to decoding what they will say.
In this Q&A, I asked Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher how he will interpret the results.
Q: Labour say the Conservatives did disastrously in 2019, which is the last time this set of elections took place. They argue the Tories should be judged on whether they are gaining seats, not losing them. Are they right?
Professor Thrasher: “The Conservatives are still the largest party of local government. They’re still defending the most seats this time.
“Why they might lose seats is simply because where they are currently in the national polls is lower than where they were in 2019 in terms of the national equivalent vote.
“In 2019, the Conservatives and Labour each got 31% of the national vote share. And so if the Conservatives are now below 30% and Labour is above 40%, it stands to reason that there’s a large swing from Conservative to Labour since four years ago. And therefore, for that simple reason, the Conservatives will lose seats to its principle opposition at these local elections.
“So yes, they lost 1,300 seats in 2019, but they are in a position where they should lose seats if polling is taken into account because Labour is so much further ahead of them now than it was in 2019.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
The exclusive YouGov study for Sky News predicts big gains for Labour, while the Lib Dems could romp home in so-called ‘blue wall’ seats.
Q: The Tories have latched upon your 1,000-seat loss scenario. Are there more realistic alternative scenarios that we should be looking at for them?
Professor Thrasher: “Well, I think Conservative losses are inevitable.
But I think if they can keep those losses down to around 500 to 700, they will feel that Labour isn’t really hurting them a great deal, and possibly also the Liberal Democrats, who they are quite fearful of in parts of southern England like Surrey, Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire.
“[It would mean] they too are not breaking through and threatening Conservatives in the next general election.
So, I think if they can keep losses down below 500, they will probably believe that they’ve had a reasonably good night at this stage of the parliament, given the way in which the current opinion polls have them below 30%. They will take that, I suspect.”
Read more:
The battleground – where are votes taking place and which matter most?
Explained: everything you need to know about the local elections
Fears over new voter ID rules
Q: Labour is saying a good night for them would be then gaining 400 seats. How does that fit in the benchmarks that you’ve done?
Professor Thrasher: “Well, I think that’s a very modest claim and given two things. Number one is where Labour currently is in the polls – it’s at 43%.
So again, if you recall, in 2019, we were saying that Labour was on 31%. That’s an increase of 12 percentage points on the position four years ago, so they should be doing well, and we think far better than 400 gains.
“Really, that’s a very modest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since 2019. They should really be aiming much higher than that, given what they need to do to win the next general election.”
Q: Often, you hear Labour politicians making the argument that these are not elections happening in their heartlands. These local councils, often shire councils, are not traditional places where Labour has a strong vote – how much validity is there in that?
Professor Thrasher: “That really, if you like, misses the point about the whole exercise of using local elections to calculate a national vote share. Because we take all of this into account.
“The way in which we calculate the national equivalent estimate is simply to look at the change in vote share in wards that voted in 2019 and in 2023.
So, it takes into account where these places are because if a council didn’t have an election, in 2019, we won’t be comparing with that result. So, we’re only comparing wards that are like for like, across those four years.
And for that reason, it doesn’t really matter where the elections are, because we’re looking at changing vote share.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Amanda Akass explained everything you need to know about local elections.
Q: Labour is keen to avoid comparisons with the local elections in 1995. They say you can’t compare those two, is that fair?
Professor Thrasher: “I don’t think it is fair, quite frankly. The reason being is that if we think about the context of the next general election, Labour requires a swing greater than Tony Blair received in 1997, which in itself remains the postwar record.
“So, I think it’s reasonable to compare with 1995 simply because Labour in 2024 has to do better than Blair did in 1997.
“And then for that reason, if Labour in 2023 is doing much, much worse than Labour did in 1995, then it stands to reason that quite frankly, they’re not in a good position to win the next general election.”
Q: Is it fair to say that Labour traditionally underperform in local elections as compared to general elections?
Professor Thrasher: “It is the case, and our projection allowed for the fact that Labour does perform rather worse in actual local elections than its current national opinion poll rating suggests. So we’ve factored that into our equation.
“It allows for the fact that the Labour lead over the Conservatives in terms of the overall estimate of the national vote at these locations is not going to be as great as the gap that it has in terms of the national opinion polls.”
Q: The Conservatives say a six or seven-point gap behind the Labour party would be a good night – being less than the polls suggest. Is that a fair benchmark to use?
Professor Thrasher: “Well, if we think about the national equivalent vote share from last year, it was 35% for Labour and 33% for the Conservatives.
“So, if they are five points adrift, then they’ve done worse than they did last year.
“This doesn’t suggest the party is catching Labour up necessarily, but they will certainly avoid the situation as in 1995, where Labour was on 47%, and the Conservatives were at 25% – a huge gap between the two parties and where Labour went on to win a landslide.
“I think the Conservatives really need to be within touching distance of Labour, bearing in mind where we are in terms of the parliament and bearing in mind that a general election is probably sometime next year.
“There is a limited amount of time for the Conservatives to catch Labour up, and therefore, they really should be within touching distance of them, not a long way behind.”
Professor Thrasher and his colleague Professor Colin Rallings have drawn up this guide for how to judge the results of the main political parties:
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
How to cut through election night spin
Conservatives
- 1000+ losses: A bad night with a third of all seats defended lost. Tory MPs in marginal ‘red wall’ and southern seats will be worried
- 750 losses: A clear swing to Labour but rather less than opinion polls imply
- 500 losses: The party will try to write this off as “mid-term blues” and argue the gap with Labour can be caught before the general election
- Fewer than 300 losses: Council seats regained from Independents as Labour and Lib Dems fail to prosper
Labour
- 700 gains+: This would be the best local election performance for at least a decade, putting the party on the path to becoming the largest party at Westminster in a general election, even if short of an outright majority
- 450 gains: Results little better than a year ago
- 250 gains: Disappointing in the context of the polls, suggesting limited success in winning back the ‘red wall’
- Fewer than 150 gains: Effectively a step backwards for Sir Keir Starmer and his party
Liberal Democrats
- 150+ gains: Eating into Conservative territory and could put some marginal constituencies in play at the next election
- 50-100 gains: Comfortable enough in their own heartlands but only modest further progress
- Fewer than 50 gains: Still struggling to pose a real threat to the Conservatives in the south
Timing is everything.
This couldn’t be truer for the current ceasefire deal on the table to end the devastating war in Gaza.
More than 67,000 Palestinians are dead, virtually all of Gaza has been flattened by Israel’s bombing campaign, and disease and famine stalk the Strip.
Gaza latest – Gaza ceasefire deal ‘could be signed tomorrow’
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Gaza deal could be agreed within 24-36 hours
Yet Hamas – the group still holding the 20 or so living hostages in captivity – is still not entirely defeated.
Yes, they are weakened immensely, but has Benjamin Netanyahu achieved the “total victory” over the group he set out to do two years ago? No.
So why has he suddenly agreed to a partial victory?
Smoke rises following an Israeli military strike in the northern Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
Speaking to those in the Israeli security establishment, one could develop a somewhat cynical view about his decision.
Recent leaks in the media around talks between Donald Trump and Israel’s prime minister, reports that the US president told Mr Netanyahu to “stop being so f***ing negative,” could be more coordinated than it seems at first glance, according to these conversations that I am having here in Israel.
It now suits Mr Netanyahu politically to stop the war.
For the past two years, he has needed to keep his coalition with the far-right together to prevent his government from collapsing.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Gazans reflect on two years of war
That meant continuing to pound Gaza, restricting the flow of aid, and allowing the likes of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to continue, unchecked, to fan the flames of ethnonationalism and call for the ethnic cleansing of the area.
Now, next year’s elections are honing into view.
Mr Netanyahu needs a win so he can go to his country as the statesman who got the hostages back and ended the war.
He needs external pressure from the US president to get this war done.
Don’t forget that, for Mr Trump, the timing is also key; the Nobel Peace Prize is announced on Friday and there is not much more that the president wants than to put the gong on his mantelpiece.
👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈
Some pessimists said that Mr Netanyahu’s government wouldn’t last for days after the 7 October 2023 attacks because of the massive security failings.
After all, this is a country that punishes political leaders more harshly than most.
But two years later, Mr Netanyahu is still fighting.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Israel mourns 7 October victims
Read more on Sky News:
Donald Trump optimistic on Gaza peace
Greta Thunberg deported from Israel
Never mind that this deal looks a lot like the deal former US President Joe Biden presented more than a year ago. The timing wasn’t right then, but it might be now.
The Palestinians living through sheer hell in Gaza desperately need this deal to be finalised.
As do those Israelis with family still held captive by Hamas.
A dual hell for both sides, separated by mere miles, and depending on a man who may have finally decided that the time for peace has come because it suits him.
World
‘Beaten for 16 days’: Deported Afghans describe brutal treatment by Iran – yet are desperate to return
It’s dusty, sweltering, crowded. Waves of people start to arrive.
Some have suitcases. Many, just the clothes on their backs. There are some walking alone, others in groups or with their families.
Nearly all look exhausted, bewildered, worried.
People cross the border with their belongings
We’re at Islam Qala in Afghanistan, on the border with Iran. The people we’re seeing crossing over are some of the 1.3 million Afghans who Iran has deported this year.
Many left their homeland for economic survival. Now they’re being forced back to where they started, full of anxiety and some, with stories of violent arrests.
Rohullah Mohammadi stands out. He’s wearing a smart blue suit and loafers. He has a youthful but serious face. He looks ready for a business meeting, not a sandy border crossing.
Rohullah Mohammadi, in the blue suit, says he was sent back to Afghanistan
He went to Iran to build a better life and earn money to send back to his struggling family. But like many we meet, he crossed illegally, living undocumented in Iran until the police caught up with him.
“They took everything I had and sent me back to Afghanistan,” he says.
“They even beat me. They injured my ear. Is this how Islam is supposed to be practised?”
Rohullah says he was beaten
At its peak, as many as 28,000 people have come through this border crossing in just a single day.
Some manage to stay for a day or two, helped by the UN alongside the Taliban authorities.
But the pressure of returning to the difficult life you left, and working out how you’ll survive going forward, quickly hits people.
‘Never paid’
In a tent for families, we meet Fatimah. She says she took her children to Iran to escape poverty.
Fatimah (centre) speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
“My two daughters worked from six in the morning until 8.30 at night,” she recalls, wiping tears from her eyes.
“But they were never paid. The Iranians didn’t give them any money.”
Fatimah breaks down in tears
’16 days beaten in detention’
Lots of children we meet are alone. They all say they were smuggled into Iran, taking on debt owed to the traffickers.
At just 15, baby-faced Tahir says he’s the breadwinner for his six siblings and two parents.
He tells us he’s just spent 16 days being beaten in a detention centre. And yet he is already feeling compelled to return to Iran – feeling the weight of responsibility for his family.
Tahir is the breadwinner for his six siblings and parents
“I love my homeland Afghanistan deeply and I am even ready to sacrifice my life for it,” he says.
“But if there is no work here, how can I survive? I have a family, and they have expectations of me. I must work.”
In a room close by, we meet 15 others like him. A whole room of unaccompanied boys who have crossed the border.
A room of boys who have crossed the border
The UN is moving them to the nearby city of Herat, where they will stay for a night before being reunited with their families across Afghanistan.
We join them on the journey. Most are strangers to each other.
Afghans deported from Iran first move to the city of Herat
‘Kicked on concrete floor’
For Tahir, it’s a soft landing, but a hard adjustment. He looks disorientated as he watches some of the others play football.
He says he can’t stop thinking about the brutal detention centre he’s just left.
“They would force us to lie down on the concrete floor and kick us,” he says.
“In the detention rooms, if someone spoke up they would be forced to lie on the ground. If they protested, they would be sent to a dark solitary cell.”
Read more:
Families’ fears after quake wiped out entire villages
Malnourished children fill this hospital
Taliban ‘will never hand over air base to US’
Tahir is already making plans to return to Iran
What is shocking to learn is that nearly every single one of the boys we met says they were smuggled to Iran by traffickers – and nearly every single one says they were beaten in detention.
But Tahir is already making plans to return to Iran. He doesn’t think he has a choice.
“I would rather kill myself than see my father begging for money for his hungry children,” he says. “I couldn’t bear it.”
Tahir is one of millions caught up in Iran’s crackdown on illegal immigrants. Authorities there set a deadline in September for all undocumented Afghans to leave.
But human rights groups say those living legally in Iran have also been swept up in deportations, and that the numbers crossing have pushed Afghanistan to breaking point.
Gholam Ali shows us his black eye, which he says Iranian police gave him
The country is also being squeezed on its eastern border – Pakistan too has deported tens of thousands of Afghans this year.
We asked the Iranian government about the allegations made by the Afghans we met, including Tahir, but it did not respond to our request for comment.
Girls fleeing Taliban restrictions
Other expelled Afghans we meet fled for an education – girls who were no longer able to attend secondary schools in Afghanistan.
We speak to one mother recently forced to return – struggling with the fact she’s now back.
“Every day brought a new restriction, a new policy aimed at preventing women from working,” she says.
“There was the compulsory niqab, and also limitations on education for women and girls.”
A mother speaks to Sky News with her daughter and niece
She seems overwhelmed. “When you see the future of your daughter, of your children, slipping away day by day, it’s devastating,” she adds.
Her daughter tells me she used to love reciting poetry. But when the Taliban returned to her city, she was forced to stop.
Bittersweet family reunion
Tahir hasn’t seen his family for two years, and it’s a bittersweet return.
His siblings rush out of the house to greet him. His mother cries as she embraces him.
Tahir’s mother embraces him on his return
The living room is packed with the siblings he’s been financially supporting. They’re a wonderful, kind and close family.
His mother Gulghoty sobs as she explains why she had to let him go and likely will again.
“Life here was very hard for him,” she says.
“We have a delivery cart but with that alone he could not pay for himself and take care of me. He needs a stable life and a future.”
Tahir is reunited with his one-year-old sister Sana
Tahir says, with sobering pragmatism, that he must go back to Iran and “endure the oppression” to save his family.
It’s a dynamic playing out across Afghanistan. Huge burdens on young shoulders and a country unable to share the load.
Donald Trump has expressed optimism about ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, as Israelis mourned those killed two years after the October 7 attacks.
The US president described the negotiations as “very serious”, adding: “I think there’s a possibility we could have peace in the Middle East”.
Latest updates from the war in Gaza
Trump made the comment during talks with Canada’s Mark Carney at the White House. Pic: Reuters
One of the key mediators, Qatar’s prime minister, along with senior American diplomats Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will now head to Egypt to join the third day of indirect negotiations between the Palestinian militant group and Israel.
Memorial events took place around the world on Tuesday, including in Israel, as grieving families gathered and relatives hoped a ceasefire deal could see the remaining hostages freed.
In Berlin, the Brandenburg Gate lit up with a call for the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Activists in Brazil set up an installation on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro showing hostages. Pic: Reuters
Images of hostages are displayed at a memorial event at Boston University. Pic: Reuters
It has been two years since thousands of Hamas-led militants poured into southern Israel after a surprise barrage of rockets.
They stormed army bases, farming communities and the outdoor Nova music festival, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, including women, children and older adults.
The attack plunged the region into a devastating war, including a brutal retaliatory offensive by Israel on Gaza that has left tens of thousands of people dead, turned entire towns and cities to rubble, triggered a widespread famine and displaced around 90% of the population.
Hamas abducted 251 others, most of whom have since been released in ceasefires or other deals, with 48 hostages remaining inside Gaza, around 20 of them believed by Israel to be alive.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Gazans reflect on two years of war
Israel mourns October 7 victims
In Tel Aviv, dozens gathered at a memorial site that was set up in a city square.
Others visited the scene of the Nova music festival in the border community of Reim, where nearly 400 Israelis were killed and where portraits of the kidnapped and dead have been erected.
Thousands of people visited throughout the day to share memories of relatives and friends who were killed.
Mourners gathered at a memorial at the site of the Nova music festival. Pic: AP
Portraits of the kidnapped and dead at the site of the Nova festival. Pic: Reuters
A girl walks through an installation of flowers at the site of the Nova festival. Pic: Reuters
Pro-Palestinian rallies, opposing Israel’s actions in Gaza, were also held in several European cities including Paris, Geneva, Athens, Istanbul, Stockholm, and London.
Sir Keir Starmer labelled the UK protests as “un-British” and said they showed a lack of respect.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Is it ‘un-British’ to hold protests on October 7?
Hamas wants ‘guarantees’
On the second day of talks, top Hamas leader Khalil Al-Hayya told Egyptian state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV the group had come “to engage in serious and responsible negotiations”.
He said Hamas was ready to reach a deal, yet it needed a “guarantee” to end the war and ensure “it is not repeated”.
US officials have suggested the talks should initially focus on the first phase: halting the fighting and working out logistics for the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
Read more from Sky News:
Two lives torn apart by the Hamas attack
Trump’s Gaza peace plan explained
Israelis and Palestinians grieve two years on
A spokesperson for Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani of Qatar said he would attend the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh “with the aim of pushing forward the Gaza ceasefire plan and hostage release agreement”.
👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈
The failure by Hamas to return hostages has left Israel deeply divided, with weekly mass protests against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
It has also left Israel more isolated internationally than it has been in decades.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Hunger and starvation was worst thing’
The war has already killed over 67,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not say how many were civilians or combatants.
Experts and major rights groups have accused Israel of genocide – something Israel vehemently denies.
The International Criminal Court is seeking the arrest of Mr Netanyahu and his former defence minister for allegedly using starvation as a method of war.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024