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There are three ways to judge how well the political parties do on election night.

First, by the number of council seats gained, secondly by the number of councils won and lost and thirdly by looking at vote shares – the proportion of people who vote for each of the main parties.

None of them will give you the full picture, however, as they battle in the early hours to give results the most positive gloss.

The fight has already begun in earnest – with parties’ claims and counterclaims about what to expect.

This is our guide to decoding what they will say.

In this Q&A, I asked Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher how he will interpret the results.

Q: Labour say the Conservatives did disastrously in 2019, which is the last time this set of elections took place. They argue the Tories should be judged on whether they are gaining seats, not losing them. Are they right?

Professor Thrasher: “The Conservatives are still the largest party of local government. They’re still defending the most seats this time.

“Why they might lose seats is simply because where they are currently in the national polls is lower than where they were in 2019 in terms of the national equivalent vote.

“In 2019, the Conservatives and Labour each got 31% of the national vote share. And so if the Conservatives are now below 30% and Labour is above 40%, it stands to reason that there’s a large swing from Conservative to Labour since four years ago. And therefore, for that simple reason, the Conservatives will lose seats to its principle opposition at these local elections.

“So yes, they lost 1,300 seats in 2019, but they are in a position where they should lose seats if polling is taken into account because Labour is so much further ahead of them now than it was in 2019.”

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The exclusive YouGov study for Sky News predicts big gains for Labour, while the Lib Dems could romp home in so-called ‘blue wall’ seats.

Q: The Tories have latched upon your 1,000-seat loss scenario. Are there more realistic alternative scenarios that we should be looking at for them?

Professor Thrasher: “Well, I think Conservative losses are inevitable.

But I think if they can keep those losses down to around 500 to 700, they will feel that Labour isn’t really hurting them a great deal, and possibly also the Liberal Democrats, who they are quite fearful of in parts of southern England like Surrey, Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire.

“[It would mean] they too are not breaking through and threatening Conservatives in the next general election.

So, I think if they can keep losses down below 500, they will probably believe that they’ve had a reasonably good night at this stage of the parliament, given the way in which the current opinion polls have them below 30%. They will take that, I suspect.”

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Q: Labour is saying a good night for them would be then gaining 400 seats. How does that fit in the benchmarks that you’ve done?

Professor Thrasher: “Well, I think that’s a very modest claim and given two things. Number one is where Labour currently is in the polls – it’s at 43%.

So again, if you recall, in 2019, we were saying that Labour was on 31%. That’s an increase of 12 percentage points on the position four years ago, so they should be doing well, and we think far better than 400 gains.

“Really, that’s a very modest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since 2019. They should really be aiming much higher than that, given what they need to do to win the next general election.”

Q: Often, you hear Labour politicians making the argument that these are not elections happening in their heartlands. These local councils, often shire councils, are not traditional places where Labour has a strong vote – how much validity is there in that?

Professor Thrasher: “That really, if you like, misses the point about the whole exercise of using local elections to calculate a national vote share. Because we take all of this into account.

“The way in which we calculate the national equivalent estimate is simply to look at the change in vote share in wards that voted in 2019 and in 2023.

So, it takes into account where these places are because if a council didn’t have an election, in 2019, we won’t be comparing with that result. So, we’re only comparing wards that are like for like, across those four years.

And for that reason, it doesn’t really matter where the elections are, because we’re looking at changing vote share.”

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Amanda Akass explained everything you need to know about local elections.

Q: Labour is keen to avoid comparisons with the local elections in 1995. They say you can’t compare those two, is that fair?

Professor Thrasher: “I don’t think it is fair, quite frankly. The reason being is that if we think about the context of the next general election, Labour requires a swing greater than Tony Blair received in 1997, which in itself remains the postwar record.

“So, I think it’s reasonable to compare with 1995 simply because Labour in 2024 has to do better than Blair did in 1997.

“And then for that reason, if Labour in 2023 is doing much, much worse than Labour did in 1995, then it stands to reason that quite frankly, they’re not in a good position to win the next general election.”

Q: Is it fair to say that Labour traditionally underperform in local elections as compared to general elections?

Professor Thrasher: “It is the case, and our projection allowed for the fact that Labour does perform rather worse in actual local elections than its current national opinion poll rating suggests. So we’ve factored that into our equation.

“It allows for the fact that the Labour lead over the Conservatives in terms of the overall estimate of the national vote at these locations is not going to be as great as the gap that it has in terms of the national opinion polls.”

Q: The Conservatives say a six or seven-point gap behind the Labour party would be a good night – being less than the polls suggest. Is that a fair benchmark to use?

Professor Thrasher: “Well, if we think about the national equivalent vote share from last year, it was 35% for Labour and 33% for the Conservatives.

“So, if they are five points adrift, then they’ve done worse than they did last year.

“This doesn’t suggest the party is catching Labour up necessarily, but they will certainly avoid the situation as in 1995, where Labour was on 47%, and the Conservatives were at 25% – a huge gap between the two parties and where Labour went on to win a landslide.

“I think the Conservatives really need to be within touching distance of Labour, bearing in mind where we are in terms of the parliament and bearing in mind that a general election is probably sometime next year.

“There is a limited amount of time for the Conservatives to catch Labour up, and therefore, they really should be within touching distance of them, not a long way behind.”


Professor Thrasher and his colleague Professor Colin Rallings have drawn up this guide for how to judge the results of the main political parties:

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How to cut through election night spin

Conservatives

  • 1000+ losses: A bad night with a third of all seats defended lost. Tory MPs in marginal ‘red wall’ and southern seats will be worried
  • 750 losses: A clear swing to Labour but rather less than opinion polls imply
  • 500 losses: The party will try to write this off as “mid-term blues” and argue the gap with Labour can be caught before the general election
  • Fewer than 300 losses: Council seats regained from Independents as Labour and Lib Dems fail to prosper

Labour

  • 700 gains+: This would be the best local election performance for at least a decade, putting the party on the path to becoming the largest party at Westminster in a general election, even if short of an outright majority
  • 450 gains: Results little better than a year ago
  • 250 gains: Disappointing in the context of the polls, suggesting limited success in winning back the ‘red wall’
  • Fewer than 150 gains: Effectively a step backwards for Sir Keir Starmer and his party

Liberal Democrats

  • 150+ gains: Eating into Conservative territory and could put some marginal constituencies in play at the next election
  • 50-100 gains: Comfortable enough in their own heartlands but only modest further progress
  • Fewer than 50 gains: Still struggling to pose a real threat to the Conservatives in the south

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World

Gaza peace deal: Netanyahu hails ‘critical turning point’ as Hamas agrees to release hostages

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Gaza peace deal: Netanyahu hails 'critical turning point' as Hamas agrees to release hostages

Benjamin Netanyahu has hailed “a critical turning point” in the Gaza war after Israel and Hamas signed off the first phase of Donald Trump’s peace plan.

The Israeli prime minister said Wednesday night’s breakthrough meant all remaining 48 hostages held by the militant group, 20 of whom are thought to still be alive, would be returned.

Gaza war latest: Celebrations as Trump announces peace deal

“Through steadfast resolve, powerful military action, and the great efforts of our great friend and ally President Trump, we’ve reached this critical turning point,” he added.

The White House said it was down to the Israeli security cabinet to sign off the deal today, which will bring a ceasefire into force and allow for an exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas urged Mr Trump not to let Israel “evade or delay” the deal, as it said it hoped it would lead to the “complete withdrawal” of the Israeli military from the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli Defence Forces said it was “ready for any scenario” and any movement “will be carried out in accordance with the directives” of its government. In a statement, it added it is prepared to “lead the operation” for the hostages’ return.

It comes after the US president announced the two sides had agreed to the first phase of his plan.

‘A great day for the world’

In a Truth Social post just before midnight UK time, he said: “I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan.”

It means all the hostages will be released, he said, and Israel will withdraw its troops “to an agreed upon line”.

He thanked mediators for their part in negotiations in Egypt this week, including those from Qatar and Turkey. The delegates were pictured hugging and celebrating as the deal was announced.

He later told Reuters it was a “great day for the world”, and told Fox News the hostages could be released on Monday.

Mr Trump had teased an imminent announcement earlier on Wednesday evening – and revealed he may travel to the Middle East, and perhaps even Gaza, as soon as this weekend.

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Moment Rubio hands Trump note on Gaza

During an event at the White House, the US secretary of state Marco Rubio handed Mr Trump a note, which the US president read and then said: “I was just given a note by the secretary of state saying that we’re very close to a deal in the Middle East, and they’re going to need me pretty quickly.”

The note had the two words “very close” underlined and asked the US president to approve a post on his Truth Social website “soon so you can announce deal first”.

Analysis: For the moment, at least, a beacon of optimism


Adam Parsons

Adam Parsons

Middle East correspondent

@adamparsons

Rumours had been spreading over the course of the day, anticipation grew.

A source told me that a deal would be done by Friday, another said perhaps by Thursday evening.

They were both wrong. Instead, it came much sooner, announced by Donald Trump on his own social media channel.

Without being anywhere near the talks in Egypt, the president was the dominant figure.

Few will argue that he deserves the credit for driving this agreement. We can probably see the origins of all this in Israel’s decision to try to kill the Hamas leadership in Doha.

The attack failed, and the White House was annoyed.

Arab states started to express themselves to Trump more successfully, arguing that it was time for him to rein in Benjamin Netanyahu and bring an end to the war.

Read more from Adam here

Sources familiar with the talks had told Sky News lead world news presenter Yalda Hakim a deal could be signed within 24 to 36 hours.

Mr Trump’s plan called for an immediate ceasefire and the release of the 48 hostages still held in Gaza from the 7 October 2023 attack that sparked the beginning of the war.

Hamas was seeking guarantees from mediators Israel will not resume its military campaign in Gaza after the militant group releases all the remaining Israeli hostages.

Other elements of the deal include a requirement that Hamas disarm, and the creation of an international body to run the enclave once Hamas steps down – led by Mr Trump, with a role for Sir Tony Blair.

Trump and Netanyahu announced the 20-point peace plan last month. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Trump and Netanyahu announced the 20-point peace plan last month. Pic: Reuters

Ahead of Mr Trump’s announcement, Israel had reduced its military campaign in Gaza at his request, but had not stopped conducting strikes altogether.

Medical authorities in Gaza reported eight people had been killed by Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours – the lowest number for weeks.

Over 67,000 Palestinians have been killed during the war, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants, but says around half were women and children.

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Trump’s Gaza deal may not go down well with everyone – but for now, it’s a beacon of optimism

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Trump's Gaza deal may not go down well with everyone - but for now, it's a beacon of optimism

When the peace deal came, it came quickly.

Rumours had been spreading over the course of the day, anticipation grew. A source told me that a deal would be done by Friday, another said perhaps by Thursday evening.

Israel and Hamas agree to peace deal – live updates

They were both wrong. Instead, it came much sooner, announced by Donald Trump on his own social media channel. Without being anywhere near the talks in Egypt, the president was the dominant figure.

Few will argue that he deserves the credit for driving this agreement. We can probably see the origins of all this in Israel’s decision to try to kill the Hamas leadership in Doha.

The attack failed, and the White House was annoyed.

Donald Trump holds a note saying a deal is 'very close'. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump holds a note saying a deal is ‘very close’. Pic: Reuters

Arab states started to express themselves to Trump more successfully, arguing that it was time for him to rein in Benjamin Netanyahu and bring an end to the war.

They repeated the call at a meeting during the UN General Assembly, which seems to have landed. When the president later met Netanyahu, the 20-point plan was born, which led to this fresh peace agreement.

Does it cover everything? Absolutely not. We don’t know who will run Gaza in the future, for a start, which is a pretty yawning hole when you consider that Gaza’s fresh start is imminent.

We don’t know what will happen to Hamas, or to its weapons, or really how Israel will withdraw from the Strip.

But these talks have always been fuelled by optimism, and by the sense that if you could stop the fighting and get the hostages home, then everything else might just fall into place.

In order to agree to this, Hamas must surely have been given strong assurances that, even at some level, its demands for Palestinian self-determination would bear fruit. Otherwise, why would the group have given up their one trump card – the 48 hostages?

Once they have gone, Hamas has no leverage at all. It has precious few friends among the countries sitting around the negotiating table, and it is a massively depleted fighting force.

So to give up that power, I can only assume that Khalil al-Hayya, the de facto Hamas leader, got a cast-iron guarantee of… something.

Arab states will greet this agreement with joy. Some of that is to do with empathy for the Palestinians in Gaza, where 67,000 people have been killed and more than 10% of the population has become a casualty of war.

An Israeli soldier stands next to the parcels of humanitarian aid awaiting to be transferred into Gaza in July. File pic: Reuters
Image:
An Israeli soldier stands next to the parcels of humanitarian aid awaiting to be transferred into Gaza in July. File pic: Reuters

But they will also welcome a path to stability, where there is less fear of spillover from the Gaza conflict and more confidence about the region’s economic and political unity.

Trump’s worldview – that everything comes down to business and deal-making – is welcomed by some of these leaders as a smart way of seeing diplomacy.

Jared Kushner has plenty of friends among these nations, and his input was important.

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For many Israelis, this comes down to a few crucial things. Firstly, the hostages are coming home. It is hard to overstate just how embedded that cause is to Israeli society.

The return of all 48, living and dead, will be a truly profound moment for this nation.

Secondly, their soldiers will no longer be fighting a war that, even within the higher echelons of the military, is believed to be drifting and purposeless.

Thirdly, there is growing empathy for the plight of the Gazans, which is tied to a fourth point – a realisation that Israel’s reputation on the world stage has been desperately tarnished.

Some will object to this deal and say that it is too weak; that it lets Hamas off the hook and fails to punish them for the atrocities of October 7.

It is an accusation that will be levelled by far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition government. It could even collapse the administration.

But for most people, in Israel, Gaza, across the Middle East and around the world, it is a moment of relief. Last week, I was in Gaza, and the destruction was absolutely devastating to witness.

Whatever the compromises, the idea that the war has stopped is, for the moment at least, a beacon of optimism.

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Why a Gaza peace deal may finally suit the key players

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Why a Gaza peace deal may finally suit the key players

Timing is everything.

This couldn’t be truer for the current ceasefire deal on the table to end the devastating war in Gaza.

More than 67,000 Palestinians are dead, virtually all of Gaza has been flattened by Israel’s bombing campaign, and disease and famine stalk the Strip.

Gaza latest – Gaza ceasefire deal ‘could be signed tomorrow’

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Gaza deal could be agreed within 24-36 hours

Yet Hamas – the group still holding the 20 or so living hostages in captivity – is still not entirely defeated.

Yes, they are weakened immensely, but has Benjamin Netanyahu achieved the “total victory” over the group he set out to do two years ago? No.

So why has he suddenly agreed to a partial victory?

Smoke rises following an Israeli military strike in the northern Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
Image:
Smoke rises following an Israeli military strike in the northern Gaza Strip. Pic: AP

Speaking to those in the Israeli security establishment, one could develop a somewhat cynical view about his decision.

Recent leaks in the media around talks between Donald Trump and Israel’s prime minister, reports that the US president told Mr Netanyahu to “stop being so f***ing negative,” could be more coordinated than it seems at first glance, according to these conversations that I am having here in Israel.

It now suits Mr Netanyahu politically to stop the war.

For the past two years, he has needed to keep his coalition with the far-right together to prevent his government from collapsing.

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Gazans reflect on two years of war

That meant continuing to pound Gaza, restricting the flow of aid, and allowing the likes of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to continue, unchecked, to fan the flames of ethnonationalism and call for the ethnic cleansing of the area.

Now, next year’s elections are honing into view.

Mr Netanyahu needs a win so he can go to his country as the statesman who got the hostages back and ended the war.

He needs external pressure from the US president to get this war done.

Don’t forget that, for Mr Trump, the timing is also key; the Nobel Peace Prize is announced on Friday and there is not much more that the president wants than to put the gong on his mantelpiece.

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

Some pessimists said that Mr Netanyahu’s government wouldn’t last for days after the 7 October 2023 attacks because of the massive security failings.

After all, this is a country that punishes political leaders more harshly than most.

But two years later, Mr Netanyahu is still fighting.

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Israel mourns 7 October victims

Read more on Sky News:
Donald Trump optimistic on Gaza peace
Greta Thunberg deported from Israel

Never mind that this deal looks a lot like the deal former US President Joe Biden presented more than a year ago. The timing wasn’t right then, but it might be now.

The Palestinians living through sheer hell in Gaza desperately need this deal to be finalised.

As do those Israelis with family still held captive by Hamas.

A dual hell for both sides, separated by mere miles, and depending on a man who may have finally decided that the time for peace has come because it suits him.

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