Billionaire Masayoshi Son, chairman and chief executive officer of SoftBank Group Corp., speaks in front of a screen displaying the ARM Holdings logo during a news conference in Tokyo on July 28, 2016.
Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The U.K. may be a great place to build a tech company — but when it comes to taking the crucial step of floating your business, the picture isn’t so rosy.
That’s the lesson several high-growth tech businesses have come to learn in London.
When Deliveroo went public in 2021, at the height of a pandemic-driven boom in food delivery, the company’s stock quickly tanked 30%.
Investors largely blamed the legally uncertain nature of Deliveroo’s business — the company relies on couriers on gig contracts to deliver meals and groceries to customers. That has been the subject of concern as these workers look to gain recognition as staffers with a minimum wage and other benefits.
But to many tech investors, there was another, much more systemic, reason at play — and it’s been cited as a factor behind chip design giant Arm’s decision to shun a listing in the U.K. in favor of a market debut in the U.S.
The institutional investors that dominate the London market lack a good understanding of tech, according to several venture capitalists.
“It’s not the exchange, it’s the people who trade on the exchange,” Hussein Kanji, founding partner at London VC firm Hoxton Ventures, told CNBC. “I think they’re looking for dividend-yielding stocks, not looking for high-growth stocks.”
“Two years ago, you could have said, you know what, it might be different, or just take a chance. Now a bunch of people have taken a chance and the answers have come back. It’s not the right decision.”
Numerous tech firms listed on the London Stock Exchange in 2021, in moves that buoyed investor hopes for more major tech names to start appearing in the blue-chip FTSE 100 benchmark.
However, firms that have taken this route have seen their shares punished as a result. Since Deliveroo’s March 2021 IPO, the firm’s stock has plummeted dramatically, slumping over 70% from the £3.90 it priced its shares at.
Wise, the U.K. money transfer business, has fallen more than 40% since its 2021 direct listing.
There have been some outliers, such as cybersecurity firm Darktrace, whose stock has climbed nearly 16% from its listing price.
However, the broad consensus is that London is failing to attract some of the massive tech companies that have become household names on major U.S. stock indexes like the Nasdaq — and with Arm opting to make its debut in the U.S. rather than the U.K., some fear that this trend may continue.
“It’s a known fact that London is a very problematic market,” Harry Nelis, general partner at VC firm Accel, told CNBC.
“London is creating, and the U.K. is creating, globally important businesses — Arm is a globally important business. The issue is that the London capital market is not efficient, essentially.”
A London Stock Exchange spokesperson told CNBC: “Arm is a great British company and a world leader in their field which we continue to believe can be very well served by the U.K. capital markets.”
“The announcement demonstrates the need for the U.K. to make rapid progress in its regulatory and market reform agenda, including addressing the amount of risk capital available to drive growth. We are working with regulators, Government and wider market participants to ensure U.K. capital markets provide the best possible funding environment for U.K. and global companies.”
The ‘B’ word
Brexit, too, has clouded the outlook for tech listings.
Funds raised by companies listing in London plunged by more than 90% in 2022, according to research from KPMG, with the market cooling due to slowing economic growth, rising interest rates, and wariness around the performance of British firms.
Previously-published figures for the first nine months of 2022 place the fall in European funds raised at between 76% and 80% annually, indicating a less severe decline than the U.K.’s 93%.
Hermann Hauser, who was instrumental in the development of the first Arm processor, blamed the firm’s decision to list in the U.S. rather than U.K. on Brexit “idiocy.”
“The fact is that New York of course is a much deeper market than London, partially because of the Brexit idiocy the image of London has suffered a lot in the international community,” he told the BBC.
Cambridge-headquartered Arm is often referred to as the “crown jewel” of U.K. tech. Its chip architectures are used in 95% of the world’s smartphones.
SoftBank, which acquired Arm for $32 billion in 2016, is now looking to float the company in New York after failing to sell it to U.S. chip-making giant Nvidia for $40 billion.
Despite three British prime ministers lobbying for it to list in London, Arm has opted to pursue a U.S. stock market listing. Last week it registered confidentially for a U.S. stock market listing.
Developing research and development for cutting-edge chips is a costly endeavor, and Japan’s SoftBank is hoping to recoup its seismic investment in Arm through the listing.
Arm is expecting to fetch roughly $8 billion in proceeds and a valuation of between $30 billion and $70 billion, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Arm has said it would like to eventually pursue a secondary listing, where it lists its shares in the U.K. following a U.S. listing.
Is an IPO everything?
Still, regulators have sought to attract tech companies to the U.K. market.
In December, the government rolled out a set of reforms aimed at enticing high-growth tech firms. Measures included allowing firms to issue dual-class shares — which are attractive to founders as they grant them more control over their business — on the main market.
This would remove eligibility requirements that can deter early-stage firms, allow for more dual-class share structures, and remove mandatory shareholder votes on acquisitions, the regulator said.
Despite the negative implications of Arm’s decision, investors largely remain upbeat about London’s prospects as a global tech hub.
“Fortunately for us, it doesn’t mean that the UK is not attractive to investors,” Nelis told CNBC. “It just means that where you IPO is just a financing event. It’s just a place, a venue where you get more money to grow.”
Startup Figure AI is developing general-purpose humanoid robots.
Figure AI
Figure AI, an Nvidia-backed developer of humanoid robots, was sued by the startup’s former head of product safety who alleged that he was wrongfully terminated after warning top executives that the company’s robots “were powerful enough to fracture a human skull.”
Robert Gruendel, a principal robotic safety engineer, is the plaintiff in the suit filed Friday in a federal court in the Northern District of California. Gruendel’s attorneys describe their client as a whistleblower who was fired in September, days after lodging his “most direct and documented safety complaints.”
The suit lands two months after Figure was valued at $39 billion in a funding round led by Parkway Venture Capital. That’s a 15-fold increase in valuation from early 2024, when the company raised a round from investors including Jeff Bezos, Nvidia, and Microsoft.
In the complaint, Gruendel’s lawyers say the plaintiff warned Figure CEO Brett Adcock and Kyle Edelberg, chief engineer, about the robot’s lethal capabilities, and said one “had already carved a ¼-inch gash into a steel refrigerator door during a malfunction.”
The complaint also says Gruendel warned company leaders not to “downgrade” a “safety road map” that he had been asked to present to two prospective investors who ended up funding the company.
Gruendel worried that a “product safety plan which contributed to their decision to invest” had been “gutted” the same month Figure closed the investment round, a move that “could be interpreted as fraudulent,” the suit says.
The plaintiff’s concerns were “treated as obstacles, not obligations,” and the company cited a “vague ‘change in business direction’ as the pretext” for his termination, according to the suit.
Gruendel is seeking economic, compensatory and punitive damages and demanding a jury trial.
Figure didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Nor did attorneys for Gruendel.
The humanoid robot market remains nascent today, with companies like Tesla and Boston Dynamics pursuing futuristic offerings, alongside Figure, while China’s Unitree Robotics is preparing for an IPO. Morgan Stanley said in a report in May that adoption is “likely to accelerate in the 2030s” and could top $5 trillion by 2050.
Concerns about stock valuations in companies tied to artificial intelligence knocked the market around this week. Whether these worries will recede, as they did Friday, or flare up again will certainly be something to watch in the days and weeks ahead. We understand the concerns about valuations in the speculative aspects of the AI trade, such as nuclear stocks and neoclouds. Jim Cramer has repeatedly warned about them. But, in the past week, the broader AI cohort — including real companies that make money and are driving what many are calling the fourth industrial revolution — has been getting hit. We own many of them: Nvidia and Broadcom on the chip side, and GE Vernova and Eaton on the derivative trade of powering these energy-gobbling AI data centers. That’s not what should be happening based on their fundamentals. Outside of valuations, worries also center on capital expenditures and the depreciation that results from massive investments in AI infrastructure. On this point, investors face a choice. You can go with the bears who are glued to their spreadsheets and extrapolating the usable life of tech assets based on history, a seemingly understandable approach, and applying those depreciation rates to their financial models, arguing the chips should be near worthless after three years. Or, you can go with the commentary from management teams running the largest companies driving the AI trade, and what Jim has gleaned from talking with the smartest CEOs in the world. When it comes to the real players driving this AI investment cycle, like the ones we’re invested in, we don’t think valuations are all that high or unreasonable when you consider their growth rates and importance to the U.S., and by extension, the global economy. We’re talking about Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who would tell you that advancements in his company’s CUDA software have extended the life of GPU chip platforms to roughly five to six years. Don’t forget, CoreWeave recently re-contracted for H100s from Nvidia, which were released in late 2022. The bears with their spreadsheets would tell you those chips are worthless. However, we know that H100s have held most of their value. Or listen to Lisa Su, CEO of Advanced Micro Devices , who said last week that her customers are at the point now where “they can see the return on the other side” of these massive investments. For our part, we understand the spending concerns and the depreciation issues that will arise if these companies are indeed overstating the useful lives of these assets. However, those who have bet against the likes of Jensen Huang and Lisa Su, or Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and others who have driven innovation in the tech world for over a decade, have been burned time and again. While the bears’ concerns aren’t invalid, long-term investors are better off taking their cues from technology experts. AI is real, and it will increasingly lead to productivity gains as adoption ramps up and the technology becomes ingrained in our everyday lives, just as the internet has. We have faith in the management teams of the AI stocks in which we are invested, and while faith is not an investment strategy, that faith is based on a historical track record of strong execution, the knowledge that offerings from these companies are best in class, and scrutiny of their underlying business fundamentals and financial profiles. Siding with these technology expert management teams, over the loud financial expert bears, has kept us on the right side of the trade for years, and we don’t see that changing in the future. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, including NVDA, AVGO, GEV, ETN, META, MSFT.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets: The S & P 500 bounced back Friday, recovering from the prior session’s sharp losses. The broad-based index, which was still tracking for a nearly 1.5% weekly decline, started off the session a little shaky as Club stock Nvidia drifted lower after the open. It was looking like concerns about the artificial intelligence trade, which have been dogging the market, were going to dominate back-to-back sessions. But when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested that central bankers could cut interest rates for a third time this year, the market jumped higher. Rate-sensitive stocks saw big gains Friday. Home Depot rose more than 3.5% on the day, mitigating a tough week following Tuesday’s lackluster quarterly release. Eli Lilly hit an all-time high, becoming the first drugmaker to reach a $1 trillion market cap. TJX also topped its all-time high after the off-price retailer behind T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, delivered strong quarterly results Wednesday. Carry trade: We’re also monitoring developments in Japan, which is dealing with its own inflation problem and questions about whether to resume interest rate hikes. That brings us to the popular Japanese yen carry trade, which is getting squeezed as borrowing costs there are rising. The yen carry trade involves borrowing yen at a low rate, then converting them into, say, dollars, and investing in higher-yielding foreign assets. That’s all well and good when the cost to borrow yen is low. It’s a different story now that borrowing costs in Japan are hitting 30-year highs. When rates rise, the profit margin on the carry trade gets crunched, or vanishes completely. As a result, investors need to get out, which means forced selling and price action that becomes divorced from fundamentals. It’s unclear if any of this is adding pressure to U.S. markets. We didn’t see anything in the recent quarterly earnings reports from U.S. companies to suggest corporate fundamentals are deteriorating in any meaningful way. That’s why we’re looking for other potential external factors, alongside the well-known concerns about artificial intelligence spending, the depreciation resulting from those capital expenditures, and general worries about consumer sentiment and inflation here in America. Wall Street call: HSBC downgraded Palo Alto Networks to a sell-equivalent rating from a hold following the company’s quarterly earnings report Wednesday. Analysts, who left their $157 price target unchanged, cited decelerating sales growth as the driver of the rerating, describing the quarter as “sufficient, not transformational.” Still, the Club name delivered a beat-and-raise quarter, which topped estimates across every key metric. None of this stopped Palo Alto shares from falling on the release. We chalked the post-earnings decline up to high expectations heading into the quarter, coupled with investor concerns over a new acquisition of cloud management and monitoring company Chronosphere. Palo Alto is still working to close its multi-billion-dollar acquisition of identity security company CyberArk , announced in July. HSBC now argues the stock’s risk-versus-reward is turning negative, with limited potential for upward estimate revisions for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. We disagree with HSBC’s call, given the momentum we’re seeing across Palo Alto’s businesses. The cybersecurity leader is dominating through its “platformization” strategy, which bundles its products and services. Plus, Palo Alto keeps adding net new platformizations each quarter, converting customers to use its security platform, and is on track to reach its fiscal 2030 target. We also like management’s playbook for acquiring businesses just before they see an industry inflection point. With Chronosphere, Palo Alto believes the entire observability industry needs to change due to the growing presence of AI. We’re reiterating our buy-equivalent 1 rating and $225 price target on the stock. Up next: There are no Club earnings reports next week. Outside of the portfolio, Symbotic, Zoom Communications , Semtech , and Fluence Energy will report after Monday’s close. Wall Street will also get a slew of delayed economic data during the shortened holiday trading week. U.S. retail sales and September’s consumer price index are scheduled for release early Tuesday. Durable goods orders and the Conference Board consumer sentiment are released on Wednesday morning. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.