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Aerial view of oil and gas jack-up rig at the yard for maintenance with many vessels in Singapore. Oil prices saw three consecutive weekly declines last week, marking the longest losing run this year.

Chain45154 | Moment | Getty Images

The recent slide in oil prices is starting to bottom out, according to analysts who predict that a more significant pickup in the coming quarters is in the cards.

Oil prices saw their third consecutive weekly decline last week, marking the longest losing run this year. However, that may soon come to pass, according to some market watchers.

“Now it definitely feels like they’re at the bottom — there are multiple signs of that,” said Citi’s Global Head of Commodities Research Ed Morse.

“Inventories built a lot during the first and second months of the year, and then they’ve come off. So that’s part of figuring that it’s at the bottom.”

He added that markets are currently facing the impact of OPEC+’s recent production cuts, and the world is moving into a higher demand season. Last month, the oil cartel announced it was slashing output by 1.16 million barrels per day. The cuts came into effect in May and will run until the end of 2023. The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, which failed to materialize.

“We’re looking more positively at the second and third quarter than what’s happened in the first quarter,” Morse said.

Financial services company ANZ also believes that the oil slump could bottom out soon, with global oil demand set to grow by 2 million barrels per day, keeping the market under-supplied throughout 2023.

A tightening oil market in H2 2023 will now rely more heavily on OPEC+, particularly Russia.

Vivek Dhar

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

“OPEC+ output cuts and a rebound in China’s demand will likely offset slower demand elsewhere … Therefore, we expect prices to bottom out soon,” the bank wrote in a research report dated May 8.

Similarly, Goldman Sachs has maintained its forecasts for a higher crude oil price tag.

“Our forecast remains that Brent rises to $95 per barrel by December and $100 per barrel by April 2024 as we expect large deficits in H2,” the investment bank stated in a report released over the weekend.

Global benchmark Brent traded 1.74% higher at $76.61 a barrel Monday, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood 1.92% at $72.71 per barrel.

Oil’s sharp slide

Brent had slipped 8% year-to-date by last Friday. On Wednesday, the benchmark posted a close of $72.33, marking the lowest since December 2021, according to data from Refinitiv. On a similar vein, West Texas Intermediate has seen a 11% year-to-date fall.

The slip in prices is attributed to a confluence of economic concerns.

Last Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, raising investors’ concerns that slower economic growth could dent energy demand.

“Pressure from anti-inflationary action undertaken by both the U.S. Fed and the ECB [European Central Bank], have resulted in lackluster demand growth for most of the OECD, with recession risks lying ahead,” Morse wrote in an e-mail.

Last month, OPEC+ announced it was slashing output by 1.16 million barrels per day. The cuts came into effect in May and will run until the end of 2023.

Bloomberg | Getty Images

Additionally, a surprise contraction in China’s April manufacturing activity also threw a shade of doubt over the recovery of the country’s commodity demand.

“The narrative that oil markets will tighten later this year because of rising Chinese demand is being challenged,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a daily note dated May 8.

“A tightening oil market in H2 2023 will now rely more heavily on OPEC+, particularly Russia,” CBA’s Vivek Dhar wrote.

And Moscow’s oil production has proved more resilient than expected.

“Russia’s oil production and exports have been resilient despite their announcement production cut of 500,000 barrels per day,” said Kang Wu, S&P’s head of global demand and Asia analytics.

The recent slide is reminiscent of the downside volatility in March and “forces’ an evaluation of whether or not the OPEC will deliver another Saudi-led cut,” Mizuho’s Vishnu Varathan wrote in a note dated May 8.

But S&P’s Wu reckons there is still a “big uncertainty” as to what the cartel’s next move will be.

“Unless they see real demand destruction either due to a weakening economy or surging prices, they probably will hold on a bit longer to decide what to do.”

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Autonomous electric semi truck brand Einride hits $1 billion valuation

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Autonomous electric semi truck brand Einride hits  billion valuation

Part self-driving tech brand, part 3PL, Swedish trucking startup Einride AB has been making a name for itself in the US and abroad by delivering zero-emission freight solutions that work. Following the company’s latest $100 million funding round, it’s delivering something else, too: a billion dollar valuation.

Bloomberg is reporting that Einride AB has closed a $100 million funding round at more than double the 400 million euro valuation (~$470 million) in its last 2021 funding round.

The source of that information, according to initial reports, spoke on the condition of anonymity but seems credible enough for the article to show up on Transport Topics. Einride, meanwhile, declined to comment on the dollar amounts, but did release a statement stating that the latest raise featured a mix of existing and new investors, including EQT Ventures, an unidentified global asset management company based on the American west coast, and IonQ, Inc.

“The capital will power Einride’s next phase of growth as it scales the deployment of its autonomous freight solutions, deepens technology development, and continues its expansion with customers,” said the company’s statement. “(After) a year of sustained growth for Einride with net sales more than doubling in 2024, a successful expansion into Austria and the UAE, and a growing footprint with global shippers across Europe and North America.”

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The move follows Einride CEO Robert Falck’s moves this past summer seemingly intended to prepare the company for a listing on a US stock exchange. The company generated $47 million in transport revenue last year with a mix of its own autonomous container trucks and a fleet of more than 150 battery-electric Peterbilt electric semi trucks, and has started cutting costs to become more efficient ahead of a listing.

The company received approval to begin operating its Level 4 autonomous heavy-duty electric vehicles on public European roads just last month.

Electrek’s Take


Autonomous Einride in NYC; via Einride AB.

While others promise big moves in the electric and self-driving semi truck space, Einride is quietly out there getting the job done, decarbonizing freight operations today with a smarter, safer, and smaller solution to the 18-wheeler.

Watch this space.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Einride, via Bloomberg.


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You can get antique plates for a first-gen Prius now — feeling old, yet?

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You can get antique plates for a first-gen Prius now — feeling old, yet?

This fall marks the 25th anniversary of the US launch of the first-gen Toyota Prius — a car that, arguably, has done more to more to shift the market away from fossil fuels than any other single vehicle (more on that in a minute). That means that, in many states, you can now get “antique” or “historic” plates for a modern hybrid.

If that sounds appealing to you, here’s what it might cost to keep that OG Prius on the road for many more years to come.

“When the Prius burst into the US market, it was nothing short of a revolution,” reads the breathless Toyota PR copy. “A true trailblazer in the world of hybrid vehicles, (Prius) set the stage for the electrification movement, captivating environmentally conscious drivers with its innovative spirit.”

I think that’s true. And, as for that claim in the header that the Prius did more to shift the US auto market away from fossil fuels than any other single vehicle, ask yourself this: would there even be a Tesla Roadster (much less an “affordable” Model Y) without the Toyota Prius bringing the conversation about electric cars into the mainstream zeitgeist fully eight years earlier?

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I spent enough time behind the wheel of a seriously quick and capable US Electricar Consulier to tell you this much: no, there wouldn’t.

They’re still out there


2001 Prius, via Toyota.

The inspiration for this article was, predictably enough, a first-generation Prius sighting in my own neighborhood. One of more than 52,000 first-generation Priuses (Prii?) sold in the US, this one was green, with a straight body, glossy paint, and the woman driving it turned out to be the car’s original owner. Her Prius – Toyota’s first gas-electric hybrid – continued to give her great service from its 1.5-liter four-cylinder ICE and high-torque electric motor, and the car’s nickel-metal hydride battery pack seemed serviceable enough, though she couldn’t tell me if it was original (her husband took care of all that).

That, along with the possibility of trolling boomers with an antique-plated Prius, led me to ask myself, “What would it really take to keep one of these on the road?”

Even if your Prius spent its entire life in a garage and has only 60,000 miles on the clock, 25 years is still twenty-five years, and rubber doesn’t care about mileage. That’s not just the rubber in the tires, either. The factory struts, bushings, CV joints, belts – even the engine mounts will surely need to be replaced. Ditto for the door and window seals.

Along with a 12V battery, fresh oil and filter change, and a thorough cleaning, that’s the kind of stuff you should budget for on day one. Here’s a quick estimate on what that would run (parts only, of course, because you work on antiques yourself):

  • tires – Michelin Energy Saver A/S or Bridgestone Ecopia EP422 Plus in 195/65R15, plan on spending about $150/tire
  • shocks and struts – KYB Excel-G, commonly sold in pairs, expect to pay about $200/ea.
  • control arm bushings and sway bar links – MOOG control arm bushings and sway bar end links, $25-50/link
  • engine and transmission mounts – Dorman or Westar makes replacements at roughly $60–120 each, depending on which mount(s) you need
  • CV boots / axle rebuild kits – GSP or SKF kits typically sell $25–75/boot
  • Serpentine / accessory belt – Gates makes an OE-quality replacement belt for about $40

This is the big one


Under the hood; via Toyota.

You’ll notice, by now, that I’ve avoiding one particular bill. The one repair item that makes anyone looking at an older EV or hybrid think twice – the high-voltage battery. And, if you’ve done any kind of research into the cost of replacement batteries for older electric cars, you already know why that is. I haven’t mentioned it, because it’s not that bad.

I found a new high-voltage replacement battery for a Prius from GreenTec on sale for just $2,050 with a 36-month warranty, or $1,399 for a refurbished unit with a 12-month warranty. That’s not only significantly less than the price of a refurbished transmission for a Toyota Corolla of a similar vintage – it’s probably a lot less than people who still think EVs are new technology would have guessed, too.

Battery costs are going down


2024 Tesla Prices
2024 Model S; via Tesla.

The costs of replacing a high-voltage EV battery in older model year cars continues to go down – and that’s true for newer EVs, too. “We’ve seen about $12-18K as an average replacement cost for a Tesla battery,” says KJ Gimbel, founder and CEO of extended EV warranty firm, Xcelerate Auto. “(At that number) we’re confident that we’ll be able to support the vast majority of claims that arise, regardless of the model.”

In other words, if you’re the type of gear head who expresses a midlife crisis by buying a sensible, reliable daily driver, you could do a lot worse than a historic Prius.

That’s my take, anyway – what’s yours? Let us know what you think of the Prius’ 25th American birthday, its role in the EV revolution, and whether or not it’ll ever gain true classic status in the comments section at the bottom of the page.

Original content from Electrek.


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What messy middle? Orange EV has logged over 10 MILLION all-electric hours!

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What messy middle? Orange EV has logged over 10 MILLION all-electric hours!

Orange EV may not be a household name like Mack or Kenworth, but this small-ish maker of all-electric heavy duty terminal tractors is making a name for itself where it matters: on the job. And this week, the company’s deployed fleet logged its ten millionth hour of operation!

Despite claims from oil-backed “efficiency” groups and fossil-backed hydrogen propaganda to the contrary, battery-powered heavy-duty EVs are proving themselves more than capable of getting the job done today, with millions upon millions upon millions of over-the-road miles as proof. Now, Orange EV is throwing its own data into the mix, with a deployed fleet of HDEVs that’s logged ten million hours of operation across more than 27 million low-speed, extreme duty miles.

“Ten million hours makes one thing clear: Orange EV has taken electric terminal trucks from possible to proven,” said Kurt Neutgens, President and CTO of Orange EV. “Our 340 customers are operating at an average of 97% uptime, with no compromises, proving you can cut costs, boost performance, and improve health and safety all at once.”

What might be more impressive than the miles covered, though, is how few trucks Orange has deployed to get to that number. The company reports that multiple units have already surpassed 30,000 hours of active service while others still are approaching a full decade of daily use — and all of them are still running on their original Orange-designed LFP battery packs.

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“Diesel yard trucks rarely achieve this level of durability, but Orange EV delivers with every truck,” adds Neutgens, a former Ford engineer. “Every hour of safe, reliable operation raises the bar for what fleets should expect from their equipment.”

Since delivering its first customer truck back in 2015, Orange EV has deployed more than 1,600 trucks across 40 states and four Canadian provinces. Together, these trucks have eliminated approximately 200,000 tons of carbon dioxide and saved fleets over $100 million (US) in fuel and maintenance costs alone. And, in more than 10 million hours of duty, not a single Orange EV yard truck battery has experienced a thermal event.

Electrek’s Take


e-TRIEVER electric terminal truck; via Orange EV.

Over at The Heavy Equipment Podcast, we had a chance to talk to Orange EV founder Kurt Neutgens ahead of last year’s ACT Expo for clean trucking. On the show (available here), Kurt explained how his experience at Ford helped inform his design ideology, and that the Orange EV was designed to be cost competitive with diesel options, even without subsidies.

Give it a listen, then let us know whether you think the big yard dogs’ success will help debunk the “messy middle” myths or not, in the comments.

SOURCE | IMAGESOrange EV.


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