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The partisan standoff over the debt limit, which hardened over the weekend when 43 Senate Republicans said they would not support a clean debt-limit increase, sets the stage for severe turbulence in the financial markets, experts warn. 

The yield on Treasury bonds maturing next month spiked last week, signaling that investors are already preparing for the possibility that President Biden and Republican leaders in Congress won’t reach a deal before the Treasury Department runs out of money next month.  

Biden will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House Tuesday to discuss how to avoid a default, but lawmakers expect little progress from the meeting. It’s the first face-to-face meeting between Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy since Feb. 1. 

There’s growing pessimism in Washington and the financial markets that political leaders will negotiate a long-term deal by early June, the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  

If an agreement doesn’t come together in the next month, congressional leaders will have to agree to a short-term extension of the debt limit to give themselves more time to negotiate.  More debt ceiling coverage from The Hill: Pressure grows on Biden to bend in debt ceiling talks Debt limit battle: How we got here

Without a short-term agreement, the US would go past the so-called “X-date” and face major turmoil in the markets.  

“I genuinely believe there’s a better-than-50-percent chance that there will be default, it will occur over a weekend and when the chaos it creates becomes obvious to all the players, they’ll have to reach some sort of accommodation,” said former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who previously served as Senate Budget Committee chairman and an advisor to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (Ky.) leadership team. 

“The potential is pretty dire,” he warned. “Right now, you don’t have the leadership to solve the problem, that’s the bottom line.” 

Gregg said McCarthy faces a challenge to his speakership if he brings a debt-limit bill to the House floor without major fiscal reforms, but the cuts that he’s proposing don’t have a chance of passing the Senate. 

McConnell’s support for a letter signed by 43 Senate Republicans declaring they will not support “any bill that raises the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms” has failed to move Democrats away from insisting on a clean debt-ceiling increase.  

“I don’t know what Democrats have to negotiate,” said a senior Senate Democratic aide, who pointed out that Republicans agreed to raise the debt limit three times under former President Trump without drama. “We’re not the ones being inconsistent.” 

“At the end of the day, a lot of their behavior is playacting,” the aide said, predicting a spike in stock and bond market volatility will pressure Republicans into backing off their demands. “They have investments, too.” 

The aide, pointing to the downgrade of the nation’s credit rating in the 2011 debt-limit standoff, said that this year’s battle in Washington over the debt ceiling would also shake the financial markets.

“We have in the past. I don’t know why this would be different,” the aide said.  

Financial markets are already starting to show signs of stress related to the impasse over the debt ceiling. 

One-month Treasury bills maturing around a projected date in early June, when the government could run out of money, saw their yields spike to 5.76 percent last week. 

Yields have climbed far above recent averages closer to 4.5 percent and significantly higher than the recent low of 3.3 percent in April. 

“The Treasury bills curve appears to imply risk of disruption in June, July, and October,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note last week to investors. 

Treasury bills maturing in early June were trading at more than a 50-basis point discount compared to May and July at the end of last week. 

“Investors are paying a healthy premium to own bills that mature in May while demanding hefty compensation to hold T-bills that are maturing in the first half of June,” analysts for Wells Fargo wrote in a note to investors last week. 

Wall Street insurance policies, which are known as credit default swaps, against one-year Treasuries hit a record-high spread of 1.77 percent late last week in a spike that was notable both for its timing and its size. 

“There is likely genuine fear that a divided government and increased political polarization could make finding a solution less likely. Meanwhile, the dual threats of rising deficits (with larger federal payments, some indexed to inflation) and higher Treasury debt service costs also increase the chance of an accident, contributing to the higher perceived riskiness of owning US debt,” Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Zeng wrote in a May 5 note. 

Uncertainty in the Treasury market, which is already dealing with one of the fastest quantitative tightening cycles in decades, could spell more trouble for the U.S. banking sector. 

Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), an advisor to the Senate Republican leadership team, said local and regional banks in his state worried about losing deposits. 
“This is a very dangerous situation. There’s been a big shift in deposits to places people perceive as safer,” he said. “All of them are nervous, our community bankers, our regional bankers. We need to try to calm this down.”  

Cornyn said the possibility of a national default isn’t helping to calm the jittery banking sector. 

“I think it’s creating unnecessary anxiety,” he said.  

One senior Senate Republican aide warned that a drop in demand for Treasury securities could trigger a broader market selloff.  

Treasury security auctions will likely become increasingly sensitive to the Treasury Department’s looming X-date, analysts say.  

“Yields are elevated beginning with the June 6 maturity, which the Treasury in January suggested was the soonest the Treasury could exhaust resources under the debt limit. The yield is highest around mid- to-late-July maturities, when we think the Treasury will have exhausted resources under the debt limit if it has not in June,” analysts for Goldman Sachs wrote. 

Auctions scheduled for this Thursday for four-week and eight-week bills due to mature within this time frame could see some additional stress, as could auctions on May 25, June 8 and June 15. 

The Bipartisan Policy Center argued in an analysis published Tuesday that “managing Treasury security auctions and meeting all obligations will become increasingly challenging as reserves dwindle.”  

“Concerns are also mounting that the country could find itself in a similar position to 2011, when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. from its AAA rating,” the think tank said. 

Yellen warned in an interview with ABC’s “This Week” that “it’s widely agreed that financial and economic chaos will ensue” if Congress fails to act by the deadline.   Debt limit battle: How we got here US could default on national debt as soon as early June: analysis

A report published by the Penn Wharton Budget Model Monday said the deadline to raise the nation’s debt ceiling will hit sooner than previously thought because tax receipts in April fell below projections.  

Alexander Arnon, the director of business tax and economic analysis for the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said “we found, as noted by the Treasury secretary and by the Congressional Budget Office, that tax receipts in April came in quite a bit lower.”  

“There was a drop off [in tax receipts] relative to what was expected and we are much closer [to default] than people had hoped earlier this year,” he said.  

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Australia is trying to enforce the first teen social media ban. Governments worldwide are watching.

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Australia is trying to enforce the first teen social media ban. Governments worldwide are watching.

In this photo illustration, iPhone screens display various social media apps on the screens on February 9, 2025 in Bath, England.

Anna Barclay | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Australia on Wednesday became the first country to formally bar users under the age of 16 from accessing major social media platforms, a move expected to be closely monitored by global tech companies and policymakers around the world.

Canberra’s ban, which came into effect from midnight local time, targets 10 major services, including Alphabet‘s YouTube, Meta’s Instagram, ByteDance’s TikTok, Reddit, Snapchat and Elon Musk’s X.

The controversial rule requires these platforms to take “reasonable steps” to prevent underage access, using ageverification methods such as inference from online activity, facial estimation via selfies, uploaded IDs, or linked bank details.

All targeted platforms had agreed to comply with the policy to some extent. Elon Musk’s X had been one of the last holdouts, but signaled on Wednesday that it would comply. 

The policy means millions of Australian children are expected to have lost access to their social accounts. 

However, the impact of the policy could be even wider, as it will set a benchmark for other governments considering teen social media bans, including Denmark, Norway, France, Spain, Malaysia and New Zealand. 

Controversial rollout

Ahead of the legislation’s passage last year, a YouGov survey found that 77% of Australians backed the under-16 social media ban. Still, the rollout has faced some resistance since becoming law.

Supporters of the bill have argued it safeguards children from social media-linked harms, including cyberbullying, mental health issues, and exposure to predators and pornography. 

Among those welcoming the official ban on Wednesday was Jonathan Haidt, social psychologist and author of The Anxious Generation, a 2024 best-selling book that linked a growing mental health crisis to smartphone and social media usage, especially for the young.

Social media platforms have too much power and nothing is being done about it: Niall Ferguson

In a post on social media platform X, Haidt commended policymakers in Australia for “freeing kids under 16 from the social media trap.”

“There will surely be difficulties in the early months, but the world is rooting for your success, and many other nations will follow,” he added. 

On the other hand, opponents contend that the ban infringes on freedoms of expression and access to information, raises privacy concerns through invasive age verification, and represents excessive government intervention that undermines parental responsibility.

Those critics include groups like Amnesty Tech, which said in a statement Tuesday that the ban was an ineffective fix that ignored the rights and realities of younger generations.

“The most effective way to protect children and young people online is by protecting all social media users through better regulation, stronger data protection laws and better platform design,” said Amnesty Tech Programme Director Damini Satija.

Dr. Vivek Murthy: Social media is one of the key drivers of our youth mental health crisis today

Meanwhile, David Inserra, a fellow for free expression and technology at the Cato Institute, warned in a blog post that children would evade the new policy by shifting to new platforms, private apps like Telegram, or VPNs, driving them to “more isolated communities and platforms with fewer protections” where monitoring is harder.

Tech companies like Google have also warned that the policy could be extremely difficult to enforce, while government-commissioned reports have pointed to inaccuracies in ageverification technology, such as selfie-based ageguessing software. 

Indeed, on Wednesday, local reports in Australia indicated that many children had already bypassed the ban, with age-assurance tools misclassifying users, and workarounds such as VPNs proving effective.

However, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had attempted to preempt these issues, acknowledging in an opinion piece on Sunday that the system would not work flawlessly from the start, likening it to liquor laws.

“The fact that teenagers occasionally find a way to have a drink doesn’t diminish the value of having a clear national standard,” he added.

Experts told CNBC that the rollout is expected to continue to face challenges and that regulators would need to take a trial-and-error approach. 

“There’s a fair amount of teething problems around it. Many young people have been posting on TikTok that they successfully evaded the age limitations and that’s to be expected,” said Terry Flew, a professor of digital communication and culture at the University of Sydney. 

“You were never going to get 100% disappearance of every person under the age of 16 from every one of the designated platforms on day one,” he added.

Global implications

Experts told CNBC that the policy rollout in Australia will be closely watched by tech firms and lawmakers worldwide, as other countries consider their own moves to ban or restrict teen social media usage. 

“Governments are responding to how public expectations have changed about the internet and social media, and the companies have not been particularly responsive to moral suasion,” said Flew. 

“We see similar pressures are emerging, particularly, but not exclusively in Europe,” he added.  

The European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution in November advocating a minimum age of 16 for social media access, allowing parental consent for 13 to 15-year-olds. 

The bloc has also proposed banning addictive features such as infinite scrolling and auto-play for minors, which could lead to EU-wide enforcement against non-compliant platforms.

Pinterest CEO on using AI to reduce social media harms

Outside Europe, Malaysia and New Zealand have also been advancing proposals to ban social media for children under 16.

However, laws elsewhere are expected to differ from Australia’s, whether that be regarding age restrictions or age verification processes. 

“My hope is that countries that are looking at implementing similar policies will monitor for what doesn’t work in Australia and learn from our mistakes,” said Tama Leaver, professor at the Department of Internet Studies at Curtin University and a Chief Investigator in the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.

“I think platforms and tech companies are also starting to realize that if they don’t want age-gating policies everywhere, they’re going to have to do much better at providing safer, appropriate experiences for young users.”

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CNBC Daily Open: A Fed rate cut might not be festive enough

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CNBC Daily Open: A Fed rate cut might not be festive enough

An eagle sculpture stands on the facade of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Friday, Nov. 18, 2016.

Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

On Wednesday stateside, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.

However, given that traders are all but certain that the cut will happen — an 87.6% chance, to be exact, according to the CME FedWatch tool — the news is likely already priced into stocks by the market.

That means any whiff of restraint could weigh on equities. In fact, the talk in the markets is that the Fed might deliver a “hawkish cut”: lower rates while suggesting it could be a while before it cuts again.

The “dot plot,” or a projection of where Fed officials think interest rates will end up over the next few years, will be the clearest signal of any hawkishness. Investors will also parse Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and central bankers’ estimates for U.S. economic growth and inflation to gauge the Fed’s future rate path.

In other words, the Fed could rein in market sentiment even if it cuts rates. Perhaps end-of-year festivities might be muted this year.

What you need to know today

And finally…

Researchers inside a lab at the Shenzhen Synthetic Biology Infrastructure facility in Shenzhen, China, on Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S.-China AI talent race heats up

When it comes to brain power, “America’s edge is deteriorating dangerously,” Chris Miller, author of the book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology,” told a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee last week. It’s a lead that’s “fragile and much smaller” than its advantage in AI chips, he said.

Part of the difference comes from the sheer scale, especially as education levels rise in China. Its population is four times that of the U.S., and the same goes for the volume of science, technology, engineering and mathematics graduates. In 2020, China produced 3.57 million STEM graduates, the most of any country, and far outpacing the 820,000 in the U.S.

— Evelyn Cheng

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CEO of South Korean online retail giant Coupang resigns over data breach

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CEO of South Korean online retail giant Coupang resigns over data breach

Park Dae-jun, CEO of South Korean online retail giant Coupang has resigned, three weeks after the company became aware of a massive data breach that affected nearly 34 million customers.

Coupang

The CEO of South Korean online retail giant Coupang Corp. resigned Wednesday, three weeks after the company became aware of a massive data breach that affected nearly 34 million customers.

Coupang said CEO Park Dae-jun resigned due to the data breach incident — which was revealed on Nov. 18 — according to a Google translation of the statement in Korean.

“I am deeply sorry for disappointing the public with the recent personal information incident,” Park said, adding, “I feel a deep sense of responsibility for the outbreak and the subsequent recovery process, and I have decided to step down from all positions.”

Following his resignation, parent company Coupang Inc. appointed Harold Rogers, the Chief Administrative Officer and General Counsel, as interim CEO.

Coupang said that Rogers plans to “focus on alleviating customer anxiety caused by the personal information leak” and to stabilize the organisation.

Park, who joined the company in 2012, became Coupang’s sole CEO in May, after the company transitioned away from a dual-CEO system.

According to Coupang, he was responsible for the company’s innovative new business and regional infrastructure development, and led projects to expand sales channels for small and medium enterprises, among others.

South Korean companies are known for being “very, very cost-efficient,” which may have led to neglecting areas like cybersecurity, Peter Kim, managing director at KB Securities, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” Wednesday.

“I think the core issue here is that we’ve had a number of other breaches, not just Coupang, but previously, telecom companies in Korea,” Kim added. “I understand some data companies consider Korea to be [the] top three or four most breached on a data, on an IT security basis in the world.”

Coupang breach a ‘double-edged sword’ for Chinese rivals due to security concerns: KB Securities

South Korean companies have been hit by cybersecurity breaches before, including an April incident at mobile carrier SK Telecom that affected 23.24 million people. The country previously saw one of its largest cybersecurity incidents in 2011, when attackers stole over 35 million user details from internet platforms Nate and Cyworld.

Nate is one of the most popular search engines in South Korea, while Cyworld was one of the country’s largest social networking sites in the early 2000s.

Prime Minister Kim Min-seok reportedly said Wednesday that strict action would be taken against the company if violations of the law were found, according to South Korean media outlet Yonhap.

Police also raided the Coupang headquarters for a second day on Wednesday, continuing their investigation into the data breach.

Yonhap also reported, citing sources, that the police search warrant “specifies a Chinese national who formerly worked for Coupang as a suspect on charges of breaching the information and communications network and leaking confidential data.”

Last week, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung called for increased penalties on data breaches, saying that the Coupang data breach had served as a wake-up call.

— CNBC’s Chery Kang contributed to this report.

How Coupang grew into South Korea's biggest online retailer

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