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Democrats are getting a sinking feeling when it comes to Donald Trump: They can see him winning again.  

A New York jury in a civil trial on Tuesday found the former president liable for sexual assault and defamation, but a number of Democrats say their party is underestimating Trump, who despite a series of scandals is the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination.  

“There is a concern from a lot of people like me, for sure,” said one prominent Democratic strategist. “There’s a disconnect between the consultant class of our party and the voters. They think they can just run a bunch of ads talking about how crazy Donald Trump is [and] that will be enough. That’s just not the case.” 

Another strategist warned others in his party: “Be very f—ing worried.”  

For a part of the party, it seems unfathomable that Trump could regain the office he left in 2021 — just weeks after a mob of his supporters forced the evacuation of Congress and interfered with the certification of the election.  

Trump now faces a string of lawsuits and controversies, yet some polls show him beating President Biden in a one-on-one matchup.  

An ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found Trump leading Biden by 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent, but Democratic operatives and even some Republicans have criticized the survey as an outlier, with many saying privately and publicly that the data appears inconsistent.

Yet the ABC/Post poll isn’t the only one showing Trump with an edge. 

A Harvard-Harris poll from late last month placed Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points, while another by the Wall Street Journal gave Biden a smaller 3-percent lead.  

Last week, Democrats got another glimpse into the state of play: Trump and Biden in a dead heat. An Economist/YouGov poll put them each at 46 percent.  

Polls also show a lack of passion in Biden’s reelection effort, with many saying they’d prefer a different Democratic candidate.  

One bright spot for Democrats came from Trump’s tepid campaign launch, which was rife with personal grievances and complaints about the last election. His lackluster kickoff gave Democrats some optimism that he’d be weaker in 2024.  

Over the spring, Trump’s problems got worse, with an indictment in New York and various pending legal battles leaving many to question whether he could realistically secure the Republican nomination, let alone win the general election. 

“It’s reasonable to think that as the country focuses on Joe Biden versus the Republican alternative and on the contrasts that will present, Joe Biden’s standing will improve in that binary choice scenario,” said a former campaign aide to 2020 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.  

Biden has not drawn primary challengers seen as significant, and his message has focused on the idea that the country cannot afford to go back to the Trump days. His campaign video depicted images of the insurrection on the Capitol on Jan. 6 to remind voters of what happened under Trump’s encouragement. 

Yet Biden also has real weaknesses, with many voters holding doubts about his stamina given his age. Biden is 80 and would turn 86 at the end of a second term.  

Some Democrats say they think it is too early to be worried about a bad poll, and voice confidence that if voters are offered the choice of Biden or Trump, the Democrat will win again.  

“I’m not surprised Trump’s numbers are high in the GOP or that Biden is low with Democrats,” said Nayyera Haq, a former Obama administration official.  

“In theory yes [he could win], I just have a hard time seeing it,” Haq said of a Trump victory. 

Another prominent Democrat, veteran political strategist Simon Rosenberg, who predicted his party’s success in the midterms against the conventional polling wisdom, said there are more indicators now that point to Democrats’ momentum.  

The party gets better organized each cycle and some of the unexpected wins in 2022 were built on the groundwork laid in 2018 and 2020, he said. More engagement, grassroots volunteers, and small-dollar donations are pouring in to help fuel the party in a way he argues the GOP is underestimating.  

“Commentators have to be very cautious about gauging intensity levels in this next election,” said Rosenberg.  

The roiling politics of abortion are another factor, something seen in Wisconsin, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the last election. After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, voters came out in support of the Democratic candidate for state Supreme Court.  

“You’ve now had three consecutive elections where Democrats’ performance has been at the upper end of what’s been possible for us,” Rosenberg said.   Musk on Tucker Carlson’s show launch on Twitter announcement: ‘We have not signed a deal’ Trump knocks judge, jury after being found liable for sexual battery, defamation

Rosenberg and other Democrats also believe their party will show up to vote against Trump, if he is the GOP nominee.  

“Anyone who thinks that this anti-MAGA majority that did so well for us these last three elections is all of a sudden going to not show up, well, I have a red wave to sell you,” he said.

–Updated at 8:04 a.m.

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Another Hernandez HR lifts Dodgers over Phillies

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Another Hernandez HR lifts Dodgers over Phillies

PHILADELPHIA — Teoscar Hernandez rallied the Los Angeles Dodgers with a three-run homer in the seventh inning that bailed out Shohei Ohtani, both on the mound and at the plate, and led his club to a 5-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of their National League Division Series on Saturday night.

Ohtani struck out four straight times at the plate, the final time in the seventh with no outs and two runners on against Matt Strahm.

No worries, at least for the reigning World Series champions.

Following a Mookie Betts popout, Hernandez, who hit two homers in the wild card round, silenced a roaring Phillies crowd with an opposite-field drive to right off Strahm for a 5-3 lead. The veteran slugger gestured in wild celebration in his trot around the bases.

His hat off, Ohtani rose from his dugout seat to join in the fun, and exhale once he was on track for the win.

A three-time MVP, Ohtani recovered from a three-run second in his first career playoff pitching start to shut down the Phillies and finish with nine strikeouts over six innings.

Alex Vesia retired pinch-hitter Edmundo Sosa with the bases loaded in the eighth to preserve the lead. Roki Sasaki worked the ninth for his first career save.

Ohtani had admitted to nerves about playing in front of a crowd that voraciously tried to live up to its four hours of hell moniker — he was jeered as he stepped on the field during warmups — and he never found his footing at the plate.

Ohtani walked in the ninth.

Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez struck out Ohtani three times, included a called strike three in the fifth inning that sent a towel-waving crowd into delirium.

Sanchez was even fired up on that one, and punched his fist in the air as he left the mound.

The Oh-4 became but a mere footnote — though Ohtani is the first player to strike out four times as a batter and strike out nine batters as a pitcher in the same postseason game — in an exhilarating comeback for a Dodgers team riding high after thumping the Reds in two games in the Wild Card Series.

Game 2 is Monday in Philadelphia.

Sanchez was thrust into the ace role when Zack Wheeler was ruled out for the season in August with complications from a blood clot. Wheeler was in full uniform and received a roaring ovation in the pregame introductions.

Sanchez pitched early like a No. 1 starter. He fanned Ohtani on three pitches to start the game and breezed through five scoreless innings.

Kike Hernandez chased Sanchez in the sixth when he ripped a two-out, two-run double down the left-field line that made it 3-2. David Robertson retired pinch-hitter Max Muncy to end the threat.

Robertson, the 40-year-old late-season pickup, allowed a single and hit Will Smith with a pitch to open the seventh before yielding to Strahm.

While disaster struck late for the Phillies bullpen, Vesia saved Tyler Glasnow in the eighth. Glasnow, pitching out of the bullpen in a short series, loaded the bases before he got the hook. Vesia got Sosa, who hit three home runs in a game last month, to fly out to center field.

The Phillies had only two hits after they scored three times in the third on J.T. Realmuto‘s two-run triple and Harrison Bader‘s sacrifice fly.

Jesus Luzardo will start for the Phillies on Monday in Game 2. Luzardo went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA with a career-high 216 strikeouts in his first season with the Phillies after he was acquired from the Miami Marlins in an offseason trade. The Dodgers already had announced that two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell was expected to start Game 2, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the bump in Game 3.

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Vlad Jr.’s playoff breakout fuels Jays past Yanks

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Vlad Jr.'s playoff breakout fuels Jays past Yanks

TORONTO — Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s playoff career before Saturday was not befitting a $500 million franchise cornerstone. The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman managed just three hits in 25 plate appearances and didn’t hit a ball over the fence across six games. More important, the six games, split into two-game slices over three postseasons, were all Blue Jays losses.

That all flipped in a 10-1 win over the Yankees, the franchise he has long openly despised, in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Saturday.

Starring in front of a raucous Rogers Centre crowd hungry for playoff baseball, Guerrero delivered an all-around clinic in the Blue Jays’ first playoff win since Game 4 of the 2016 AL Championship Series with a diving catch and three hits to fuel an offensive explosion.

“He’s the face of our franchise and a big reason why we go, a big part of why we’re here,” Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman said. “So it’s been nice to see him have the night that he had.”

At the plate, Guerrero swatted his first career postseason home run and finished 3-for-4 with two RBIs and a run scored to fuel an offense that pounded 14 hits, including three home runs and three doubles. Defensively, his diving catch of Ryan McMahon‘s lineout at first base — while a bat shard whizzed by him — initiated an inning-ending double play in the second.

Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk complemented Guerrero’s effort with his first two career postseason home runs. Right fielder Nathan Lukes contributed two hits, including a two-run double, with three RBIs and a diving catch down the right-field line. Shortstop Andres Gimenez went 2-for-4 as the Blue Jays chased Luis Gil after 2⅔ innings and forced the Yankees to use six pitchers.

“I think having him get the scoring going, the double play at first with McMahon, it’s nice,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said of Guerrero. “It gives you a little bit of a jolt because it’s Vlad and what he means to this team.”

Guerrero did not waste time in providing that energy, swatting a 90 mph changeup from Gil in the first inning to give the Blue Jays a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. He added singles in the second and eighth innings and a sacrifice fly in the Blue Jays’ game-busting four-run seventh, igniting the sellout crowd on a gorgeous day in Ontario with the building’s roof open.

That it happened against the Yankees was fitting. Guerrero’s dislike of the Yankees, he has said, dates back to two incidents over two decades ago: the Yankees pulling a contract offer for his father, a Hall of Fame outfielder, in 2003 and Yankee Stadium security telling his father to take him off the field when he was a boy.

“For me, I bring the same energy every game regardless who I’m playing, especially now in the playoffs,” Guerrero said. “That’s all I’ve got on my mind is to go out there and play hard.”

Whatever his motivation, the five-time All-Star has enjoyed facing the Yankees during his seven-year career. Entering Saturday’s matchup — the first ever between the two clubs in the postseason — Guerrero was batting .302 with 22 home runs and an 0.918 OPS in 102 career games opposite the Yankees.

He improved those gaudy numbers Saturday, adding another highlight reel to a year that began with him committing to Toronto with a 14-year, $500 million contract extension in April and that he hopes ends with the franchise’s first championship since 1993 later this month.

“For me, my goal always is to win a World Series, to bring the World Series here,” Guerrero said. “My father, he never had the chance to win a World Series. That’s one of my goals, always been one of my goals, to do that for me, for him.”

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