Democrats are getting a sinking feeling when it comes to Donald Trump: They can see him winning again.
A New York jury in a civil trial on Tuesday found the former president liable for sexual assault and defamation, but a number of Democrats say their party is underestimating Trump, who despite a series of scandals is the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination.
“There is a concern from a lot of people like me, for sure,” said one prominent Democratic strategist. “There’s a disconnect between the consultant class of our party and the voters. They think they can just run a bunch of ads talking about how crazy Donald Trump is [and] that will be enough. That’s just not the case.”
Another strategist warned others in his party: “Be very f—ing worried.”
For a part of the party, it seems unfathomable that Trump could regain the office he left in 2021 — just weeks after a mob of his supporters forced the evacuation of Congress and interfered with the certification of the election.
Trump now faces a string of lawsuits and controversies, yet some polls show him beating President Biden in a one-on-one matchup.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found Trump leading Biden by 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent, but Democratic operatives and even some Republicans have criticized the survey as an outlier, with many saying privately and publicly that the data appears inconsistent.
Yet the ABC/Post poll isn’t the only one showing Trump with an edge.
A Harvard-Harris poll from late last month placed Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points, while another by the Wall Street Journal gave Biden a smaller 3-percent lead.
Last week, Democrats got another glimpse into the state of play: Trump and Biden in a dead heat. An Economist/YouGov poll put them each at 46 percent.
Polls also show a lack of passion in Biden’s reelection effort, with many saying they’d prefer a different Democratic candidate.
One bright spot for Democrats came from Trump’s tepid campaign launch, which was rife with personal grievances and complaints about the last election. His lackluster kickoff gave Democrats some optimism that he’d be weaker in 2024.
Over the spring, Trump’s problems got worse, with an indictment in New York and various pending legal battles leaving many to question whether he could realistically secure the Republican nomination, let alone win the general election.
“It’s reasonable to think that as the country focuses on Joe Biden versus the Republican alternative and on the contrasts that will present, Joe Biden’s standing will improve in that binary choice scenario,” said a former campaign aide to 2020 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Biden has not drawn primary challengers seen as significant, and his message has focused on the idea that the country cannot afford to go back to the Trump days. His campaign video depicted images of the insurrection on the Capitol on Jan. 6 to remind voters of what happened under Trump’s encouragement.
Yet Biden also has real weaknesses, with many voters holding doubts about his stamina given his age. Biden is 80 and would turn 86 at the end of a second term.
Some Democrats say they think it is too early to be worried about a bad poll, and voice confidence that if voters are offered the choice of Biden or Trump, the Democrat will win again.
“I’m not surprised Trump’s numbers are high in the GOP or that Biden is low with Democrats,” said Nayyera Haq, a former Obama administration official.
“In theory yes [he could win], I just have a hard time seeing it,” Haq said of a Trump victory.
Another prominent Democrat, veteran political strategist Simon Rosenberg, who predicted his party’s success in the midterms against the conventional polling wisdom, said there are more indicators now that point to Democrats’ momentum.
The party gets better organized each cycle and some of the unexpected wins in 2022 were built on the groundwork laid in 2018 and 2020, he said. More engagement, grassroots volunteers, and small-dollar donations are pouring in to help fuel the party in a way he argues the GOP is underestimating.
“Commentators have to be very cautious about gauging intensity levels in this next election,” said Rosenberg.
The roiling politics of abortion are another factor, something seen in Wisconsin, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the last election. After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, voters came out in support of the Democratic candidate for state Supreme Court.
“You’ve now had three consecutive elections where Democrats’ performance has been at the upper end of what’s been possible for us,” Rosenberg said. Musk on Tucker Carlson’s show launch on Twitter announcement: ‘We have not signed a deal’ Trump knocks judge, jury after being found liable for sexual battery, defamation
Rosenberg and other Democrats also believe their party will show up to vote against Trump, if he is the GOP nominee.
“Anyone who thinks that this anti-MAGA majority that did so well for us these last three elections is all of a sudden going to not show up, well, I have a red wave to sell you,” he said.
An Israeli delegation is heading to Qatar for indirect talks with Hamas on a possible hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza.
The development comes ahead of a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in Washington DC on Monday aimed at pushing forward peace efforts.
The US leader has been increasing pressure on the Israeli government and Hamas to secure a permanent ceasefire and an end to the 21-month-long war in Gaza.
Image: Smoke rises in Gaza following an explosion. Pic: Reuters
And Hamas, which runs the coastal Palestinian territory, said on Friday it has responded to the US-backed proposal in a “positive spirit”.
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So what is in the plan?
The plan is for an initial 60-day ceasefire that would include a partial release of hostages held by the militant group in exchange for more humanitarian supplies being allowed into Gaza.
The proposed truce calls for talks on ending the war altogether.
The war in Gaza began after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage. Dozens of hostages have since been released or rescued by Israeli forces, while 50 remain in captivity, including about 30 who Israel believes are dead.
The proposal would reportedly see about half of the living hostages and about half of the dead hostages returned to Israel over 60 days, in five separate releases.
Eight living hostages would be freed on the first day and two released on the 50th day, according to an Arab diplomat from one of the mediating countries, it is reported.
Five dead hostages would be returned on the seventh day, five more on the 30th day and eight more on the 60th day.
That would leave 22 hostages still held in Gaza, 10 of them believed to be alive. It is not clear whether Israel or Hamas would determine who is to be released.
Hamas has sought guarantees that the initial truce would lead to a total end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
A Hamas official has said Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.
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1:34
Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’
Possible challenges ahead
And in a sign of the potential challenges still facing the two sides, a Palestinian official from a militant group allied with Hamas said concerns remained.
The concerns were over humanitarian aid, passage through the Rafah crossing in southern Israel to Egypt and clarity over a timetable for Israeli troop withdrawals.
Hamas’s “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.
But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”
The Times of Israel reported Hamas has proposed three amendments to the proposed framework.
According to a source, Hamas wants the agreement to say that talks on a permanent ceasefire will continue until an agreement is reached; that aid will fully resume through mechanisms backed by the United Nations and other international aid organisations; and that the IDF withdraws to positions it maintained before the collapse of the previous ceasefire in March.
Mr Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that changes sought by Hamas to the ceasefire proposal were “not acceptable to Israel”.
However, his office said the delegation would still fly to Qatar to “continue efforts to secure the return of our hostages based on the Qatari proposal that Israel agreed to”.
Another potential challenge is that Mr Netanyahu has repeatedly said Hamas must be disarmed, which is a demand the militant group has so far refused to discuss.
Hamas has said it is willing to free all the hostages in exchange for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops and an end to the war in Gaza.
Israel rejects that offer, saying it will agree to end the war if Hamas surrenders, disarms and goes into exile – something that the group refuses.
Previous negotiations have stalled over Hamas demands of guarantees that further negotiations would lead to the war’s end, while Mr Netanyahu has insisted Israel would resume fighting to ensure the group’s destruction.
Details of those who have died and those who are missing after US flash floods are slowly emerging – with several young girls among those unaccounted for.
At least 69 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 11 girls and a counsellor from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.
As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.
Tributes to those who died, and appeals for those who are still missing, are now being shared.
Image: Officials said 27 girls from Camp Mystic were reported missing after the flash floods in Texas
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3:35
Texas searches for missing children
Who are the victims?
Renee Smajstrla, eight
Image: Renee Smajstrla. Pic: Family handout
Renee’s uncle Shawn Salta confirmed the eight-year-old had died, and said she was one of 700 children staying at Camp Mystic.
“Renee has been found and while not the outcome we prayed for, the social media outreach likely assisted the first responders in helping to identify her so quickly,” he said.
“We are thankful she was with her friends and having the time of her life, as evidenced by this picture from yesterday.
“She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic.”
Sarah Marsh, eight
Image: Sarah Marsh. Pic: Family handout
Mountain Brook mayor Stewart Welch confirmed the death of eight-year-old Sarah, from Alabama, who was a pupil at Cherokee Bend Elementary.
“This is an unimaginable loss for her family, her school, and our entire community,” he said. “Sarah’s passing is a sorrow shared by all of us, and our hearts are with those who knew and loved her.
“As we grieve alongside the Marsh family, we also remember the many others affected by this tragedy.”
Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine
Image: Lila Bonner (left) and Eloise Peck. Pic: Family handout
Eloise’s mother Missy Peck told local broadcaster FOX4 that her daughter and Lila were best friends and cabinmates at Camp Mystic.
Writing about her daughter on Instagram, Ms Peck said: “She lost her life in the tragic flooding… our family is grieving and processing this unimaginable loss together.”
Lila’s family told NBC Dallas Fort Worth, a local affiliate network of Sky’s US partner network, that they were in “unimaginable grief”, and said: “We ache with all who loved her.”
Janie Hunt, nine
Image: Janie Hunt
Janie’s family confirmed her death to a reporter from NBC Dallas Fort Worth, who said “her mother tells me she’s devastated”.
Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic
Image: Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic. Pic: Family handout
Kerr County judge Rob Kelly told the Washington Post that Mr Eastland, who owned the camp died in a helicopter on the way to a Houston hospital.
Local outlet The Kerrville Daily Times reported he was killed while trying to save the girls from the flash floods.
“It doesn’t surprise me at all that his last act of kindness and sacrifice was working to save the lives of campers,” guest columnist Paige Sumner said in the Daily Times’ tribute to Mr Eastland.
Blair and Brooke Harber, 13 and 11
Image: Blair and Brooke Harber. Pic: Family handout
RJ Harber told CNN his daughters died during flooding in Kerr County, saying Blair “was a gifted student and had a generous kind heart”.
He added that Brooke “was like a light in any room, people gravitated to her and she made them laugh and enjoy the moment”.
He also said both his parents were still missing.
Jane Ragsdale, owner of Heart O’ the Hills camp
Image: Jane Ragsdale. Pic: Heart O’ the Hills
On Heart O’ the Hills’s website, the camp confirmed it was “right in the path of the flood” along the Guadalupe River.
While there were no campers in residence, Jane Ragsdale died. The camp said: “We at the camp are stunned and deeply saddened by Jane’s death.
“She embodied the spirit of Heart O’ the Hills and was exactly the type of strong, joyful woman that the camp aimed to develop with the girls entrusted to us each summer.”
Julian Ryan, 27
Image: Julian Ryan. Pic: GoFundMe
Relatives of Mr Ryan told local news broadcaster KHOU 11 that he died saving his family from floodwaters in Texas Hill County.
They described how he tried to smash a window to help them escape the rising water, but it cut his arm and he bled out before help could arrive.
In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).
Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”
Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”
Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”
Fast-forward 15 minutes.
Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”
(Pause)
Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”
Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.
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6:36
Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.
In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.
As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.
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9:11
Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’
For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.
So what can be done?
Well, the government could change the rules.
Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.
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5:31
Welfare: ‘Didn’t get process right’ – PM
A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.
Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.
That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.
The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.
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16:02
Is Corbyn an existential risk to Labour?
The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.
Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.
In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.
If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.
And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.