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Democrats are getting a sinking feeling when it comes to Donald Trump: They can see him winning again.  

A New York jury in a civil trial on Tuesday found the former president liable for sexual assault and defamation, but a number of Democrats say their party is underestimating Trump, who despite a series of scandals is the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination.  

“There is a concern from a lot of people like me, for sure,” said one prominent Democratic strategist. “There’s a disconnect between the consultant class of our party and the voters. They think they can just run a bunch of ads talking about how crazy Donald Trump is [and] that will be enough. That’s just not the case.” 

Another strategist warned others in his party: “Be very f—ing worried.”  

For a part of the party, it seems unfathomable that Trump could regain the office he left in 2021 — just weeks after a mob of his supporters forced the evacuation of Congress and interfered with the certification of the election.  

Trump now faces a string of lawsuits and controversies, yet some polls show him beating President Biden in a one-on-one matchup.  

An ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found Trump leading Biden by 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent, but Democratic operatives and even some Republicans have criticized the survey as an outlier, with many saying privately and publicly that the data appears inconsistent.

Yet the ABC/Post poll isn’t the only one showing Trump with an edge. 

A Harvard-Harris poll from late last month placed Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points, while another by the Wall Street Journal gave Biden a smaller 3-percent lead.  

Last week, Democrats got another glimpse into the state of play: Trump and Biden in a dead heat. An Economist/YouGov poll put them each at 46 percent.  

Polls also show a lack of passion in Biden’s reelection effort, with many saying they’d prefer a different Democratic candidate.  

One bright spot for Democrats came from Trump’s tepid campaign launch, which was rife with personal grievances and complaints about the last election. His lackluster kickoff gave Democrats some optimism that he’d be weaker in 2024.  

Over the spring, Trump’s problems got worse, with an indictment in New York and various pending legal battles leaving many to question whether he could realistically secure the Republican nomination, let alone win the general election. 

“It’s reasonable to think that as the country focuses on Joe Biden versus the Republican alternative and on the contrasts that will present, Joe Biden’s standing will improve in that binary choice scenario,” said a former campaign aide to 2020 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.  

Biden has not drawn primary challengers seen as significant, and his message has focused on the idea that the country cannot afford to go back to the Trump days. His campaign video depicted images of the insurrection on the Capitol on Jan. 6 to remind voters of what happened under Trump’s encouragement. 

Yet Biden also has real weaknesses, with many voters holding doubts about his stamina given his age. Biden is 80 and would turn 86 at the end of a second term.  

Some Democrats say they think it is too early to be worried about a bad poll, and voice confidence that if voters are offered the choice of Biden or Trump, the Democrat will win again.  

“I’m not surprised Trump’s numbers are high in the GOP or that Biden is low with Democrats,” said Nayyera Haq, a former Obama administration official.  

“In theory yes [he could win], I just have a hard time seeing it,” Haq said of a Trump victory. 

Another prominent Democrat, veteran political strategist Simon Rosenberg, who predicted his party’s success in the midterms against the conventional polling wisdom, said there are more indicators now that point to Democrats’ momentum.  

The party gets better organized each cycle and some of the unexpected wins in 2022 were built on the groundwork laid in 2018 and 2020, he said. More engagement, grassroots volunteers, and small-dollar donations are pouring in to help fuel the party in a way he argues the GOP is underestimating.  

“Commentators have to be very cautious about gauging intensity levels in this next election,” said Rosenberg.  

The roiling politics of abortion are another factor, something seen in Wisconsin, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the last election. After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, voters came out in support of the Democratic candidate for state Supreme Court.  

“You’ve now had three consecutive elections where Democrats’ performance has been at the upper end of what’s been possible for us,” Rosenberg said.   Musk on Tucker Carlson’s show launch on Twitter announcement: ‘We have not signed a deal’ Trump knocks judge, jury after being found liable for sexual battery, defamation

Rosenberg and other Democrats also believe their party will show up to vote against Trump, if he is the GOP nominee.  

“Anyone who thinks that this anti-MAGA majority that did so well for us these last three elections is all of a sudden going to not show up, well, I have a red wave to sell you,” he said.

–Updated at 8:04 a.m.

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‘I still have hope’: Parents of IDF soldier taken hostage by Hamas fear he’ll be one of last freed

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'I still have hope': Parents of IDF soldier taken hostage by Hamas fear he'll be one of last freed

Yehuda searches through a downstairs room looking for a plastic bag containing the most precious of objects.

It’s a small, blackened Rubik’s Cube that belongs to Yehuda’s son Nimrod – one of 20 living Israeli hostages still being held by the terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.

It was found in Nimrod’s burnt-out tank after the October 7th attacks.

“He likes PlayStation and Rubik’s Cube,” says Nimrod’s mother, Vicky.

“They found the Rubik’s Cube in the tank. It was complete but a little bit dark and they brought it back to us.”

Stills from Holland PKG of Vicky Cohen whose son Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas
Image:
Vicky Cohen

We spoke to Nimrod’s parents Yehuda and Vicky about the emotional rollercoaster hostage families in Israel are going through – as hope rises and fades of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

“I still have hope that maybe I will see Nimrod again,” says Vicky.

“It almost breaks my heart because I still had expectation,” she says – in spite of the latest failure to find resolution in talks between Israel and Hamas in Doha.

“But I still have hope that maybe something good will happen,” she says.

Rubik's cube owned by Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas
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Nimrod’s charred Rubik’s Cube

Vicky says: “We heard [during] the last weeks, President Trump saying we will hear about a ceasefire soon – next week – in a few days.

“We heard our prime minister [Benjamin Netanyahu] say visiting Washington and meeting Trump was very successful – and heard members of the coalition talking about our prime minister eventually understanding he needs to end the war. But until now nothing.”

The delegation coming back to Israel doesn’t mean a total collapse of ceasefire talks, but US envoy Steve Witkoff said the response to the latest ceasefire proposals by Hamas showed “a lack of desire”.

And so the rollercoaster of emotion for the hostage families continues.

Middle East latest: Gaza aid airdrops a ‘smokescreen’

Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas
Image:
Nimrod

Nimrod’s father Yehuda Cohen said: “Of course it’s a disappointment but it’s not the first one. A long time ago I learned not to get my expectations up so the disappointment won’t be too deep.

“The solution is very simple – I’ve got it on my shirt – ceasefire and hostage deal. Meaning the only way to get all the hostages is ending the war.”

Stills from Holland PKG on Yehuda Cohen (pictured) whose son Nimrod Cohen is being held hostage by Hamas
Image:
Nimrod’s father Yehuda

Yehuda shows us Nimrod’s bedroom at the family home. It’s exactly as it was when Nimrod left to return to his army duties a few days before the October 7 attacks.

Except in a corner, there’s a box of uniforms and personal possessions, including a wallet which Nimrod had left at his army outpost – all returned to the family by the IDF.

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Stills from Holland PKG on Yehuda and Vicky Cohen's son Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas.
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The IDF handed Nimrod’s parents a box of his possessions left at his army outpost

It’s just like the bedroom of any other teenager – Nimrod was 19 when he was kidnapped. But two birthdays have passed since then. Nimrod is 21 now – a milestone spent in captivity a few weeks ago.

It’s believed there are 20 living Israeli hostages in Gaza – all male – and that Hamas is holding the bodies of 27 more hostages who have been killed.

Read more from Sky News:
Israel resumes airdrops into Gaza
Bob Geldof accuses Israel of ‘lying’
25% of children malnourished, charity says

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Starvation in Gaza continues

But even if a deal is agreed, the first phase is expected to secure the release of only half of the living hostages – and Nimrod’s parents say their son, as a soldier, is not likely to be one of the 10.

Yehuda says: “A partial deal means that the probability my son will be on that list is close to zero. So he’s going to be one of the last ones to be released, and that’s why we have to fight.”

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Bob Geldof accuses Israeli authorities of ‘lying’ about starvation in Gaza

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Bob Geldof accuses Israeli authorities of 'lying' about starvation in Gaza

Bob Geldof has accused the Israeli authorities of “lying” about starvation in Gaza – after Israel’s government spokesperson claimed there was “no famine caused by Israel”.

Earlier this week, David Mencer claimed that Hamas “starves its own people” while on The News Hour with Mark Austin, denying that Israel was responsible for mass hunger in Gaza.

Appearing on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Geldof said the claims are false.

Follow latest: Gaza aid airdrops a ‘smokescreen’ and ‘distraction’

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Israel challenged on starvation in Gaza

Sir Trevor asked the Live Aid organiser: “The Israeli view is that there is no famine caused by Israel, there’s a manmade shortage, but it’s been engineered by Hamas.

“I guess the Israelis would say we don’t see much criticism from your side of Hamas.”

In response, Geldof said “that’s a false equivalence” and “the Israeli authorities are lying”.

The singer then added: “They’re lying. [Benjamin] Netanyahu lies, is a liar. The IDF are lying. They’re dangling food in front of starving, panicked, exhausted mothers.

“And while they arrive to accept the tiny amount of food that this sort of set up pantomime outfit, the Gaza Humanitarian Front, I would call it, as they dangle it, then they’re shot wantonly.

“This month, up to now, 1,000 children or 1,000 people have died of starvation. I’m really not interested in what either of these sides are saying.”

He added: “If the newsfeeds and social feeds weren’t so censored in Israel, I imagine that the Israeli people would not permit what has been done in their name.”

Asked about the UK government’s reaction, Geldof said it was “not enough”.

“This is a distraction thing about ‘let’s recognise the state ‘ – absolutely, it should have been done ages ago, but it’s not going to make any material difference,” he said, referring to calls for Sir Keir Starmer to recognise Palestine as a state.

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Gaza: ‘This is man-made starvation’

In the Sky News interview earlier this week, Mr Mencer added: “This suffering exists because Hamas made it so. Here are the facts. Aid is flowing, through the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Millions of meals are being delivered directly to civilians.”

He also claimed that, since May, more than 4,400 aid trucks had entered Gaza carrying supplies.

It comes after MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders, warned 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are now malnourished.

The charity said Israel’s “deliberate use of starvation as a weapon” has reached unprecedented levels, and said that at one of its clinics in Gaza City, rates of severe malnutrition in children under five have trebled over the past two weeks.

MSF then described the lack of food and water on the ground “unconscionable”.

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Aid waiting to be distributed in Gaza

In a statement to Sky News, an Israeli security official said that “despite the false claims that are being spread, the State of Israel does not limit the number of humanitarian aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip”.

It then blamed other groups for issues delivering aid. They said: “Over the past month, we have witnessed a significant decline in the collection of aid from the crossings into the Gaza Strip by international aid organisations.

“The delays in collection by the UN and international organisations harm the situation and the food security of Gaza’s residents.”

Read more:
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Surgeon claims IDF ‘deliberately’ shooting boys at Gaza aid points
Security shot at Palestinians at Gaza aid centre – ex-guard

The IDF also told Sky News: “The IDF allows the American civilian organisation (GHF) to distribute aid to Gaza residents independently, and operates in proximity to the new distribution zones to enable the distribution alongside the continuation of IDF operational activities in the Gaza Strip.

“Following incidents in which harm to civilians who arrived at distribution facilities was reported, thorough examinations were conducted in the Southern Command and instructions were issued to forces in the field following lessons learned.

“The aforementioned incidents are under review by the competent authorities in the IDF.”

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Five killed after Russia and Ukraine trade aerial bombardments

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Five killed after Russia and Ukraine trade aerial bombardments

At least five people have been killed after Russia and Ukraine traded aerial bombardments overnight, officials have said.

In Ukraine, the southern region of Dnipro and the northeastern region of Sumy were attacked by rockets and drones.

The head of the Dnipro regional administration, Serhii Lysak, said at least three people had died and at least five were injured.

A man stands next to burned cars in Dnipro. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A man stands next to burned cars in Dnipro. Pic: Reuters

In the city of Dnipro, a multi-storey building and businesses were damaged in the strike, and a fire engulfed a shopping centre in the region.

The military administration in Sumy said three people were injured.

Over three hours, Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, was hit by four guided aerial bombs, two ballistic missiles and 15 drones.

In a Telegram post, its mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said high-rise residential buildings, local businesses, roads and the communication network were damaged.

He said at least five people were injured, including three rescue workers hit in a double tap strike, where a second attack targets emergency workers trying to help those wounded in the initial attack.

In total, Russia targeted Ukraine with 208 drones and 27 missiles overnight, according to the daily air force report.

It said air defence and electronic warfare took down or intercepted 183 drones and 17 missiles, but hits from 10 missiles and 25 drones had been recorded in nine locations, according to preliminary data.

Read more:
25% of young children now malnourished in Gaza, charity says
Huge security operation as Trump tees off at his golf course

Employees walk past a damaged shopping centre in the city of Kamianske in the Dnipro region. Pic: Reuters
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Employees walk past a damaged shopping centre in the city of Kamianske. Pic: Reuters

Officials in Russia said Ukrainian drones targeted several regions overnight, with a drone attack on the border region of Rostov killing two people, according to acting governor Yuri Slyusar.

In the neighbouring Stavropol region, drones hit an industrial facility, governor Vladimir Vladimirov said on Telegram. The attack sparked a brief fire, he added.

Drones also targeted Moscow but were shot down, according to mayor Sergei Sobyanin. They also targeted an industrial facility in the Penza region southeast of the capital, governor Oleg Melnichenko said.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said its air defences shot down or intercepted a total of 54 Ukrainian drones.

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