It’s early days in the rise of generative AI such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and many in the market remain unconvinced of how it will play out for the economy and society, if amazed at its tricks.
Warren Buffett said in a recent interview with Becky Quick on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that while ChatGPT did “wonderful things” writing a song for him in Spanish, and that “it’s an incredible technological advance in terms of showing what we can do,” he wasn’t convinced about the ultimate outcomes for the world. “I think this is extraordinary but I don’t know if it’s beneficial,” he said.
He did say the time-saving component of the tech is among the things that struck him.
“It can tell you that it’s read every book, every legal opinion. I mean, the amount of time it could save you, if you were doing all kinds of things, is unbelievable,” Buffett said.
That’s where CEOs in the generative AI space are focused.
“What we’re hearing from customers using our API for legal companies is that it is totally transforming the way they work and the efficiency that any one lawyer can achieve and the accuracy, freeing people up to do more of what they do really well, and having this new tool to sort of give them as much leverage as possible,” Altman said.
That backs up what tech executives working directly with legal firms have previously told CNBC, with one saying of his legal and accounting firm clients that the sentiment right now is not that AI replaces lawyers, but “lawyers using AI are gonna replace lawyers. … Those professionals are going to be more effective, more efficient, they’ll be able to do more,” he said.
“That is a pattern we’re seeing again and again in many industries, and I’m super excited about it,” Altman said. “I do think it will touch almost everything.”
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There isn’t much research yet to support these contentions, but early data does support the anecdotal evidence. A study released by MIT researchers in March showed that workers were 37% more efficient using ChatGPT.
Aidan Gomez, CEO of generative AI startup Cohere, which ranked No. 44 on this year’s Disruptor 50 list, pointed to that MIT study in a CNBC interview on Tuesday, saying, “The results are amazing,” he said. “That’s Industrial Revolution-level large. What the steam engine did for mechanical work, mechanical labor, this technology is going to do for intellectual labor.”
Gomez stressed in his comments to CNBC that the research had not yet been peer-reviewed. The authors of the MIT research, Whitney Zhang and Shakked Noy, were unable to comment due to the research currently being in the process of submission to a journal for peer review and publication.
Generative AI already begun to ‘noticeably impact workers’
Cohere’s platform lets developers and businesses of all sizes — even those without expertise in machine learning — integrate AI features like copywriting, search, conversational AI, summarization or content moderation in their company’s mobile app or service platform. Cohere works with AI customer service tech vendor LivePerson and has cloud deals with Google, Amazon Web Services and Oracle. Salesforce is an investor in the company, one of the first investments the customer relationship management tech giant made this year in a new AI fund. Gomez, along with co-founder Nick Frosst, came from Google Brain, an exploratory deep learning artificial intelligence team that’s now part of Google Research. While at Alphabet‘s Google, Gomez and other researchers helped to develop a new method of natural language processing — transformers — that enable systems to grasp a word’s context more accurately.
Comments like Gomez’s have contributed to the debate about whether AI replaces human labor or augments it. In sectors such as education, those fears are already running high. Gomez, in keeping with the outlook from most AI executives, is sticking to the “augmentative” script.
“What you’re going to see is humans are going to become ten times more effective at what they do,” he said.
He did say we should be wary of companies pointing to AI as the reason for layoffs in the future. He expects that excuse to be made.
But workers also have an advantage, for now, Gomez said: the time it will take to integrate AI technology into the existing technology stack.
“The reality is this will be a slow process over the next half-decade and there will be time to adjust, and change your own job,” he said. “And frankly, you’re going to love it.”
His comments made clear that workers better get used to it.
“We’re pre the real deployment, so I think simmering underneath the water is all this work going on to just transform every product, every single company.”
The MIT study provided more of a mixed assessment of the eventual outcomes for workers and the labor market. The increases in productivity among college-educated professionals performing mid-level professional writing tasks were qualified as “substantial,” and the study showed these workers executed tasks “significantly faster.” Initially low-performing workers, meanwhile, saw output increase and time on task decrease. But the MIT researchers weren’t sure that meant the outlook was good for preserving jobs.
“The experimental evidence suggests that ChatGPT largely substitutes for worker effort rather than complementing workers’ skills, potentially causing a decrease in demand for workers, with adverse distributional effects as capital owners gain at the expense of workers,” they wrote.
The researchers also pointed to limitations in their study. For one, the tasks were “relatively short, self-contained, and lack a dimension of context-specific knowledge, which may inflate our estimates of ChatGPT’s usefulness.” They could not draw conclusions about overall job satisfaction from the results, and, in capturing “only direct, immediate effects of ChatGPT on the selected occupations” they cannot account for many other factors that will weigh in labor markets and production systems as they adapt to new technologies like ChatGPT, or how AI will influence each occupation, task, and skill level.
The only conclusion they made with confidence in their paper: “For now, the evidence we provide suggests that generative AI technologies will — and have already begun — to noticeably impact workers.”
Watch the full CNBC Disruptor 50 interview above for more of this leading generative AI CEO’s views on how the next few years of work will play out.
The Motion Picture Association on Monday urged OpenAI to “take immediate and decisive action” against its new video creation model Sora 2, which is being used to produce content that it says is infringing on copyrighted media.
Following the Sora app’s rollout last week, users have been swarming the platform with AI-generated clips featuring characters from popular shows and brands.
“Since Sora 2’s release, videos that infringe our members’ films, shows, and characters have proliferated on OpenAI’s service and across social media,” MPA CEO Charles Rivkin said in a statement.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman clarified in a blog post that the company will give rightsholders “more granular control” over how their characters are used.
But Rivkin said that OpenAI “must acknowledge it remains their responsibility – not rightsholders’ – to prevent infringement on the Sora 2 service,” and that “well-established copyright law safeguards the rights of creators and applies here.”
OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment.
Concerns erupted immediately after Sora videos were created last week featuring everything from James Bond playing poker with Altman to body cam footage of cartoon character Mario evading the police.
Although OpenAI previously held an opt-out system, which placed the burden on studios to request that characters not appear on Sora, Altman’s follow-up blog post said the platform was changing to an opt-in model, suggesting that Sora would not allow the usage of copyrighted characters without permission.
However, Altman noted that the company may not be able to prevent all IP from being misused.
“There may be some edge cases of generations that get through that shouldn’t, and getting our stack to work well will take some iteration,” Altman wrote.
Copyright concerns have emerged as a major issue during the generative AI boom.
Disney and Universal sued AI image creator Midjourney in June, alleging that the company used and distributed AI-generated characters from their films and disregarded requests to stop. Disney also sent a cease-and-desist letter to AI startup Character.AI in September, warning the company to stop using its copyrighted characters without authorization.
Thoma Bravo co-founder Orlando Bravo said that valuations for artificial intelligence companies are “at a bubble,” comparing it to the dotcom era.
But one key difference in the market now, he said, is that large companies with “healthy balance sheets” are financing AI businesses.
Bravo’s private equity firm boasts more than $181 billion in assets under management as of June, and focuses on buying and selling enterprise tech companies, with a significant chunk of its portfolio invested in cybersecurity.
Bravo told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday that investors can’t value a $50 million annual recurring revenue company at $10 billion.
“That company is going to have to produce a billion dollars in free cash flow to double an investor’s money, ultimately,” he said. “Even if the product is right, even if the market’s right, that’s a tall order, managerially.”
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OpenAI recently finalized a secondary share sale that would value the ChatGPT-maker at $500 billion. The company is projected to make $13 billion in revenue for 2025.
Nvidia recently said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, in part, to help the ChatGPT maker lease its chips and build out supercomputing facilities in the coming years.
Other public companies have soared on AI promises, with Palantir’s market cap climbing to $437 billion, putting it among the 20 most valuable publicly traded companies in the U.S., and AppLovin now worth $213 billion.
Even early-stage valuations are massive in AI, with Thinking Machines Lab notching a $12 billion valuation on a $2 billion seed round.
Despite the inflated numbers, Bravo emphasized that there’s a “big difference” between the dotcom collapse and the current landscape of AI.
“Now you have some really big companies and some big balance sheets and healthy balance sheets financing this activity, which is different than what happened roughly 25 years ago,” he said.
Oracle stock slipped 5% on Tuesday after a report from The Information that raised questions about the company’s plans to buy billions of Nvidia chips to rent as a cloud provider to clients like OpenAI.
Oracle had 14% gross margins on $900 million in sales in its Nvidia cloud business in the three months ending in August, according to the report, which cited internal documents. That’s significantly lower than Oracle’s overall gross margin of around 70%.
The report said that Oracle’s recent transformation into one of the most important cloud and artificial intelligence companies may run into profitability challenges because of how expensive Nvidia chips are and aggressive pricing on its AI chip rentals.
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In September, Oracle said that its backlog of cloud contracts, which it called remaining performance obligations, had jumped 359% in a year. It forecasted $144 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue in 2030, up from just over $10 billion in 2025.