Connect with us

Published

on

There are momentum swings in an NHL postseason series. And then there’s what’s happening between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights.

The Golden Knights lead the Oilers 2-1 in their Western Conference second-round series after a decisive 5-1 victory in Game 3 on Monday. That came after Edmonton walloped Vegas by a 5-1 score in Game 2. And that followed a wild Game 1 where the Golden Knights blew one (and nearly another) multi-goal lead but hung onto a 6-4 win.

All that is to say, it’s tough to know exactly what to expect from these powerhouses in Game 4 (10 p.m. ET, ESPN). Will the offensive pendulum continue to swing, with another trip back Edmonton’s way? Or does defense (and discipline) win the day in a tight-checking, low-scoring sort of way that hasn’t materialized in the series to date?

More importantly, who comes out on top before the sides shift back down to the desert?

Here we have the X factors for Game 4 — from players, to stats, to a key element that could spell victory, or contribute to defeat — for either team in this next pivotal matchup.


X factor: Key player

Edmonton: Stuart Skinner

Goaltending is imperative to playoff success. Obviously.

In this instance, all eyes will be on Skinner to see how he bounces back, and potentially puts a stop to the five-plus goal games defining this series.

The Oilers rookie was pulled from Game 3 after allowing four goals on 23 shots. Skinner was also sub-par in Game 1’s defeat, giving up five goals on 33 shots.

For as much as Edmonton has been on a roller coaster during this series, so too has Skinner, enduring notable ups and downs throughout the postseason. In Oilers’ victories, Stuart owns a .921 save percentage and 2.51 goals-against average. In losses, he’s got an .857 SV% and 4.67 GAA.

Pitted against the Golden Knights thus far, Skinner is 1-2-0 with an .885 SV% and 3.96 GAA. Those totals suggest there’s more Stuart can give to Edmonton — and he’ll likely have a chance to do that in Game 4. Despite questions surrounding whether Jack Campbell would get the call — he made nine saves on 10 shots in relief on Skinner in Game 3 — it was Skinner back in the starter’s net for Tuesday’s practice. Coach Jay Woodcroft wouldn’t confirm on Tuesday it would be Skinner in net for Game 4, but all signs certainly pointed that way.

Edmonton spent a disproportionate amount of time in Game 2 on the power play — and capitalized with three goals — which took pressure off Skinner to stand on his head as the Oilers evened the series at 1-1. It’s unlikely the Oilers will see that much special teams influence in Game 4. Should he be the Oilers’ starter again on Wednesday, it’ll be on Skinner to showcase his best work (particularly at even strength) and renew confidences in the type of difference-maker he can be moving ahead in this series.

Vegas: William Karlsson

The Golden Knights had a star in William Karlsson throughout their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets.

Karlsson tied Chandler Stephenson for the team lead in goals (4), had the second-best shooting percentage (36.4%) and was an impressive 55.6% in the faceoff dot.

That output hasn’t carried over — yet. Karlsson grabbed just one assist against the Oilers (from that Game 1 win), has only seven shots on goal in the series and dropped to 51.1% in the dot.

One of the great strengths to Karlsson’s game is he’s a strong two-way player who can contribute at both ends of the ice. Going up against the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in this series is also different than what Karlsson experienced versus the Jets. What would help Vegas most in Game 4 is some added output from Karlsson on the scoresheet, too. He’s capable of that, making him a key player to watch not only shutting down top skaters but providing an offensive boost as Vegas looks for more depth of scoring.

Karlsson should have ample opportunity to break out of that mini scoring slump. He’s averaging nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game, with a presence on the power play and shorthanded. Versatility like that rarely goes unnoticed — or unrewarded — for long. And after seeing Jonathan Marchessault, Jack Eichel and Stephenson go off in Game 3, Karlsson should definitely be feeling like it’s his time to shine again, too.


X factor: Standout stat

Edmonton: Excellent on the rebound

How good are the Oilers coming off a loss? Extremely.

Edmonton hasn’t dropped consecutive games since February 25-27. All six of their defeats since then — including three in this postseason — have been followed by wins. And in all three of those victories, the Oilers have scored four or more goals.

It’s a pattern with real staying power and shows the resiliency Edmonton could wield to its advantage on home ice Wednesday. In a series that’s seen so much back and forth already, the Oilers won’t hesitate to tap into anything that’s helped them weather adversity before and get back on equal footing with the opposition.

Vegas: Even-strength warriors

Every team has to find its edge. The Golden Knights’ might be their play at even strength.

In this series, Vegas is outscoring Edmonton 10-4 at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, they’re getting outscored 5-1 on the power play.

Therefore, it would be wildly advantageous for Vegas to a) stay out of the penalty box in Game 4, and b) force the Oilers into playing as much as possible at even strength.

The Golden Knights had similar success at 5-on-5 in the first round, not only leading the postseason field in even strength goals, but outscoring the Jets in that category 15-6 (while again being outscored on the power play, 5-3).

Another way to look at this for Vegas might be that their penalty kill has been a postseason letdown (currently the worst among remaining playoff teams, at 56.5%). Whatever way you slice it, Vegas’ best chance of topping the highly skilled, high-flying Oilers is making them earn their offense at 5-on-5. That’s not where Edmonton has excelled so far. Vegas will want to see that carry on into Game 4 and beyond.


X factor: Area of opportunity

Edmonton: More balanced offensive attack

The Oilers have a pair of all-world talents in McDavid and Draisaitl driving their offense — often from the same line.

What Edmonton saw in Game 3 was a need to start spreading the wealth.

Zach Hyman was hobbled by a lower-body collision with Nicolas Hague during the first period of Game 3 that limited his ice time (down from his usual 20 minutes per game to just 14:06) and put a spotlight on how the Oilers’ depth players needed to start making more of an impact on the series.

Edmonton has had four scorers total against Vegas: Draisaitl (6), McDavid (2), Evan Bouchard (1) and Warren Foegele (1). Separating McDavid and Draisaitl — who began playing together again during Edmonton’s first-round series against Los Angeles — could help kickstart some other skaters into gear (namely Evander Kane and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins).

“We spend a lot of time talking about trying to set the conditions that are most favorable for our team,” Woodcroft said on Tuesday of shifting McDavid and Draisaitl to different units. “We move them around the chess board quite often. For us, sometimes if we feel that’s a punch in the arm we need, we might [have them together]. Very rarely are we stuck in one way of thinking. I think that comes from knowing your team personnel and I think our interchanging of parts is what makes us a dangerous team; it’s part of who we are.”

Hyman has been the Oilers’ third-most important forward in the postseason behind the team’s superstars. He did not practice on Tuesday, and if he’s not available for Game 4, it’s even more imperative Edmonton find contributions elsewhere.

Case in point: the Oilers’ third line of Foegele, Ryan McLeod and Derek Ryan. They’ve really appeared to starting jelling — it was Foegele opening the Game 3 scoring off a feed from Ryan — and if Woodcroft can pry some more output from them, it would remove added pressure from the top six.

Regardless of specifically whom that production comes from, Edmonton knows improvements have to be made in their 5-on-5 offensive play. Digging into the team’s depth is their best course of action.

Vegas: More production from the blue line

The Golden Knights’ defense hasn’t realized its full offensive potential.

In three games against Edmonton, Vegas’ back end produced one goal (from Zach Whitecloud in Game 3) and seven total points.

In five games against Winnipeg, the Golden Knights got zero goals and eight points out of its blue line.

What if that were to change?

“We’d like a little bit more [from the defense],” coach Bruce Cassidy said Tuesday. “Got a big goal from Zach the other night. But for this particular series, we have to be real careful how much we’re wandering from the back end and how quick they can come back at us. I think the guys want to make sure you’re in position defensively and not be reckless, but you still in today’s game have to be on the attack and on the move.”

Naturally, the defense’s first job is keeping pucks out of the net. But Vegas’ lack of offensive production from that area is worth exploring — and ideally tapping into.

Playoffs are all about evolution. How can a team improve on the fly without having to make drastic changes? This is an easy area of adjustment for Vegas that could pay major dividends right away. Whether it’s blasting shots from the point through traffic, supporting forwards on the cycle or just getting pucks on net for rebound tries, seeing the Golden Knights’ defense become more engaged and in tune with its offense would add another element to their arsenal that the Oilers would have to account for moving ahead.

And what team wouldn’t want that?

Continue Reading

Sports

Sovereignty rallies to win Jim Dandy at Saratoga

Published

on

By

Sovereignty rallies to win Jim Dandy at Saratoga

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. — Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes champion Sovereignty rallied after losing position heading into the final turn to win the $500,000 Jim Dandy by a length at Saratoga on Saturday.

Ridden by Junior Alvarado, Sovereignty ran nine furlongs in 1:49.52 and paid $3 to win as the 1-2 favorite against four rivals, the smallest field of his career.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said Sovereignty would be pointed toward the $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 23 at the upstate New York track.

Approaching the turn, there were a few tense moments as it appeared Sovereignty was retreating when losing position to the advancing Baeza and deep closers Sandman and Hill Road, leaving Sovereignty in last for a few strides.

Alvarado said he never had a doubt that Sovereignty would come up with his expected run.

“It was everybody else moving and at that time I was just like, ‘Alright let me now kind of start picking it up,'” Alvarado said. “I had 100% confidence. I knew what I had underneath me.”

Baeza, third to Sovereignty in both the Derby and Belmont, finished second. Hill Road was another 9¼ lengths back in third. Mo Plex was fourth and Sandman fifth.

Continue Reading

Sports

Briscoe wins Brickyard 400 pole, his 5th of season

Published

on

By

Briscoe wins Brickyard 400 pole, his 5th of season

INDIANAPOLIS — Chase Briscoe became the first driver to win poles at NASCAR’s first three crown jewel races in one season Saturday, taking the Brickyard 400 pole with a fast lap of 183.165 mph.

His late run bumped Bubba Wallace out of the top starting spot.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has won nine career poles, five coming this season including those at the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600 and now the only race held in Briscoe’s home state. He’ll have a chance to complete a crown jewel sweep at the Southern 500 in late August.

Briscoe has the most pole wins this season, his latest coming on Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s 2.5-mile oval. It also came on the same weekend his sister was married in Indiana. Briscoe has never won the Brickyard.

Wallace starts next to Briscoe on the front row after posting a lap of 183.117 mph. Those two also led a pack of five Toyotas to the front of the field — marking the first time the engine manufacturer has swept the top five spots.

Qualifying was held after a brief, rescheduled practice session. Friday’s practice was rained out.

Briscoe’s teammate, Ty Gibbs, has the early edge in the championship round of NASCAR’s first In-Season Challenge. He qualified fifth at 182.445. Ty Dillon starts 26th. The winner will be crowned champion and walk away with $1 million.

Last week’s race winner Denny Hamlin faces a major hurdle in winning his first Brickyard title. He crashed hard during qualifying and will start from the back of the field, 39th, as he tries to become the fifth driver to complete a career sweep of the Cup’s crown jewel races. The 44-year-old Hamlin signed a two-year contract extension with JGR on Friday.

Defending race winner Kyle Larson starts 13th.

Continue Reading

Sports

Building the perfect trade deadline for the Mets and Phillies

Published

on

By

Building the perfect trade deadline for the Mets and Phillies

There’s plenty of history in the rivalry between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s about 116 miles from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park. The two teams been competing for the NL East since 1969. Star players from Tug McGraw to Jerry Koosman to Lenny Dykstra to Pedro Martinez to Zack Wheeler have played for both franchises. Mets fans loathe the Phanatic, and Phillies fans laugh derisively at Mr. Met.

Despite this longevity, the two teams have rarely battled for a division title in the same season. The only years they finished No. 1 and 2 or were battling for a division lead late in the season:

  • 1986: Mets finished 21.5 games ahead

  • 2001: Both finished within six games of the Braves

  • 2006: Mets finished 12 games ahead

  • 2007: Phillies finished one game ahead

  • 2008: Phillies finished three games ahead

  • 2024: Phillies finished six games ahead of Mets and Braves

So it’s a rare treat to see the Mets and Phillies battling for the NL East lead in as New York faces the San Francisco Giants on “Sunday Night Baseball” this week. This season has also been a bit of bumpy ride for both teams, so there is pressure on both front offices to make trade deadline additions in hopes of winning the World Series that has eluded both franchises in recent years despite high payrolls and star-laden rosters. Let’s dig into what both teams need to do before Thursday.

The perfect trade deadline for the Mets

1. Bullpen help

The Mets already acquired hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto from the Orioles, but David Stearns will likely look for another reliever, given that the Mets’ bullpen has struggled since the beginning of June with a 5.02 ERA. In my grade of the trade, I pointed out the importance for the Mets to add left-handed relief. Think of potential playoff opponents and all the key left-handed batters: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the Phillies; Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy on the Dodgers; Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong on the Cubs.

Soto has held lefties to a .138 average this season, and it does help that the Mets have two lefty starters in David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They also just activated Brooks Raley after he had been out since early 2024. If he is back to his 2022-23 form, when he had a 2.74 ERA and held lefties to a .209 average, maybe the Mets will feel good enough about their southpaw relief.

They could still use another dependable righty reliever. Mets starters were hot early on, but they weren’t going deep into games, and outside of Peterson, the lack of longer outings is a big reason the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed. Carlos Mendoza has overworked his setup guys, including Huascar Brazoban and Reed Garrett. Brazoban has never been much of a strike thrower anyway, and Garrett similarly faded in the second half last season. Adding a high-leverage righty to set up Edwin Diaz makes sense. Candidates there include David Bednar of the Pirates, Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals, Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran of the Twins, or maybe a longer shot such as Emmanuel Clase or Cade Smith of the Guardians.

2. Think big, as in Eugenio Suarez

Mark Vientos was a huge key to last season’s playoff appearance and trip to the NLCS, hitting .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs after beginning the season in Triple-A. He hasn’t been able to replicate that performance, though, hitting .224/.279/.354. That has led to a revolving door at third base, with Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio starting games there in July. Overall, Mets third basemen ranked 24th in the majors in OPS entering Friday.

Lack of production at third is one reason the Mets’ offense has been mediocre rather than very good — they’re averaging 4.38 runs per game, just below the NL average of 4.43. They could use another premium bat, given the lack of production they’ve received from center field and catcher (not to mention Francisco Lindor‘s slump since the middle of June). Maybe Francisco Alvarez‘s short stint back in Triple-A will get his bat going now that he’s back in the majors, but going after Suarez to hit behind Juan Soto and Pete Alonso would lengthen the lineup.

3. Reacquire Harrison Bader to play CF

Tyrone Taylor is a plus defender in center and has made several incredible catches, but he’s hitting .209/.264/.306 for a lowly OPS+ of 65. Old friend Bader is having a nice season with the Twins, hitting .251/.330/.435. Maybe that’s a little over his head, given that he had a .657 OPS with the Mets last season, but he would still be an offensive upgrade over Taylor without losing anything on defense — and he wouldn’t cost a top-tier prospect. The Mets could still mix in Jeff McNeil against the really tough righties, but adding Suarez and Bader would give this lineup more of a championship feel.

The perfect deadline for the Phillies

1. Acquire Jhoan Duran

Like the Mets, the Phillies already made a move here, signing free agent David Robertson, who had a 3.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 72 innings last season with the Rangers. On paper, he should help, but he’s also 40 and will need a few games in the minors to get ready. Even with Robertson, the Phillies could use some more help here. They’ll eventually get Jose Alvarado back from his 60-game PED suspension, but Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason. At least the Mets have an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. Jordan Romano leads the Phillies with eight saves and has a 6.69 ERA. Matt Strahm is solid, but more useful as a lefty setup guy than a closer (think of all those left-handed batters we listed for the Mets, then sub out Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo for Harper and Schwarber).

And the Phillies’ bullpen has consistently come up short in big games. Think back to last year’s NLDS, when Jeff Hoffman lost twice to the Mets. Or 2023, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. Or the 2022 World Series, when Yordan Alvarez hit the huge home run off Alvarado in the clinching Game 6.

So, yes, a shutdown closer is a must. Maybe that’s Bednar, maybe Clase if he’s available (although he struggled in last year’s postseason), maybe Helsley. But the guy Dave Dombrowski should go all-in to get: Duran. The window for the Phillies is slowly closing as the core players get older. Duran is under control through 2027, so he’s a fit for now and the immediate future. The trade cost might be painful, but with his 100 mph fastball and splitter, he has the elite stuff you need in October.

2. Add Ryan O’Hearn

The Phillies have received below-average production from both left field (mostly Max Kepler) and center field (Brandon Marsh/Johan Rojas platoon). The center-field market is pretty thin except for Bader or maybe a gamble on Luis Robert Jr. I’d pass on Robert, stick with the Marsh/Rojas platoon and upgrade left field with O’Hearn, who is hitting .281/.375/.452 for the Orioles. He isn’t the perfect fit since, like Kepler, he hits left-handed and struggles against lefties, but he’s a patient hitter with a much better OBP, and he’s passable in the outfield.

3. Acquire Willi Castro

Here’s the bottom line: The Phillies have to admit that some of their long-term position players aren’t getting the job done — such as second baseman Bryson Stott, who has a 77 OPS+. Third baseman Alec Bohm has been better but also has a below-average OPS.

That makes Castro a nice fit. He’s not a star, but he’s an above-average hitter, a switch-hitter who plays all over the field for the Twins, having started games at five different positions. He could play second or third or start in left field against a lefty. Philadelphia could even start him in center instead of Rojas, although that would be a defensive hit. Bottom line: Castro would give the Phillies a lot more versatility — or a significant offensive upgrade over Stott if they start him every day at second.

Note as well: Stott has hit .188 in 33 career postseason games. Bohm has hit .214 with two home runs in 34 postseason games. The Phillies need a different offensive look for October.

Continue Reading

Trending