Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
There are momentum swings in an NHL postseason series. And then there’s what’s happening between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights.
The Golden Knights lead the Oilers 2-1 in their Western Conference second-round series after a decisive 5-1 victory in Game 3 on Monday. That came after Edmonton walloped Vegas by a 5-1 score in Game 2. And that followed a wild Game 1 where the Golden Knights blew one (and nearly another) multi-goal lead but hung onto a 6-4 win.
All that is to say, it’s tough to know exactly what to expect from these powerhouses in Game 4 (10 p.m. ET, ESPN). Will the offensive pendulum continue to swing, with another trip back Edmonton’s way? Or does defense (and discipline) win the day in a tight-checking, low-scoring sort of way that hasn’t materialized in the series to date?
More importantly, who comes out on top before the sides shift back down to the desert?
Here we have the X factors for Game 4 — from players, to stats, to a key element that could spell victory, or contribute to defeat — for either team in this next pivotal matchup.
Goaltending is imperative to playoff success. Obviously.
In this instance, all eyes will be on Skinner to see how he bounces back, and potentially puts a stop to the five-plus goal games defining this series.
The Oilers rookie was pulled from Game 3 after allowing four goals on 23 shots. Skinner was also sub-par in Game 1’s defeat, giving up five goals on 33 shots.
For as much as Edmonton has been on a roller coaster during this series, so too has Skinner, enduring notable ups and downs throughout the postseason. In Oilers’ victories, Stuart owns a .921 save percentage and 2.51 goals-against average. In losses, he’s got an .857 SV% and 4.67 GAA.
Pitted against the Golden Knights thus far, Skinner is 1-2-0 with an .885 SV% and 3.96 GAA. Those totals suggest there’s more Stuart can give to Edmonton — and he’ll likely have a chance to do that in Game 4. Despite questions surrounding whether Jack Campbell would get the call — he made nine saves on 10 shots in relief on Skinner in Game 3 — it was Skinner back in the starter’s net for Tuesday’s practice. Coach Jay Woodcroft wouldn’t confirm on Tuesday it would be Skinner in net for Game 4, but all signs certainly pointed that way.
Edmonton spent a disproportionate amount of time in Game 2 on the power play — and capitalized with three goals — which took pressure off Skinner to stand on his head as the Oilers evened the series at 1-1. It’s unlikely the Oilers will see that much special teams influence in Game 4. Should he be the Oilers’ starter again on Wednesday, it’ll be on Skinner to showcase his best work (particularly at even strength) and renew confidences in the type of difference-maker he can be moving ahead in this series.
The Golden Knights had a star in William Karlsson throughout their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets.
Karlsson tied Chandler Stephenson for the team lead in goals (4), had the second-best shooting percentage (36.4%) and was an impressive 55.6% in the faceoff dot.
That output hasn’t carried over — yet. Karlsson grabbed just one assist against the Oilers (from that Game 1 win), has only seven shots on goal in the series and dropped to 51.1% in the dot.
One of the great strengths to Karlsson’s game is he’s a strong two-way player who can contribute at both ends of the ice. Going up against the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in this series is also different than what Karlsson experienced versus the Jets. What would help Vegas most in Game 4 is some added output from Karlsson on the scoresheet, too. He’s capable of that, making him a key player to watch not only shutting down top skaters but providing an offensive boost as Vegas looks for more depth of scoring.
Karlsson should have ample opportunity to break out of that mini scoring slump. He’s averaging nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game, with a presence on the power play and shorthanded. Versatility like that rarely goes unnoticed — or unrewarded — for long. And after seeing Jonathan Marchessault, Jack Eichel and Stephenson go off in Game 3, Karlsson should definitely be feeling like it’s his time to shine again, too.
X factor: Standout stat
Edmonton: Excellent on the rebound
How good are the Oilers coming off a loss? Extremely.
Edmonton hasn’t dropped consecutive games since February 25-27. All six of their defeats since then — including three in this postseason — have been followed by wins. And in all three of those victories, the Oilers have scored four or more goals.
It’s a pattern with real staying power and shows the resiliency Edmonton could wield to its advantage on home ice Wednesday. In a series that’s seen so much back and forth already, the Oilers won’t hesitate to tap into anything that’s helped them weather adversity before and get back on equal footing with the opposition.
Vegas: Even-strength warriors
Every team has to find its edge. The Golden Knights’ might be their play at even strength.
In this series, Vegas is outscoring Edmonton 10-4 at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, they’re getting outscored 5-1 on the power play.
Therefore, it would be wildly advantageous for Vegas to a) stay out of the penalty box in Game 4, and b) force the Oilers into playing as much as possible at even strength.
The Golden Knights had similar success at 5-on-5 in the first round, not only leading the postseason field in even strength goals, but outscoring the Jets in that category 15-6 (while again being outscored on the power play, 5-3).
Another way to look at this for Vegas might be that their penalty kill has been a postseason letdown (currently the worst among remaining playoff teams, at 56.5%). Whatever way you slice it, Vegas’ best chance of topping the highly skilled, high-flying Oilers is making them earn their offense at 5-on-5. That’s not where Edmonton has excelled so far. Vegas will want to see that carry on into Game 4 and beyond.
X factor: Area of opportunity
Edmonton: More balanced offensive attack
The Oilers have a pair of all-world talents in McDavid and Draisaitl driving their offense — often from the same line.
What Edmonton saw in Game 3 was a need to start spreading the wealth.
Zach Hyman was hobbled by a lower-body collision with Nicolas Hague during the first period of Game 3 that limited his ice time (down from his usual 20 minutes per game to just 14:06) and put a spotlight on how the Oilers’ depth players needed to start making more of an impact on the series.
Edmonton has had four scorers total against Vegas: Draisaitl (6), McDavid (2), Evan Bouchard (1) and Warren Foegele (1). Separating McDavid and Draisaitl — who began playing together again during Edmonton’s first-round series against Los Angeles — could help kickstart some other skaters into gear (namely Evander Kane and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins).
“We spend a lot of time talking about trying to set the conditions that are most favorable for our team,” Woodcroft said on Tuesday of shifting McDavid and Draisaitl to different units. “We move them around the chess board quite often. For us, sometimes if we feel that’s a punch in the arm we need, we might [have them together]. Very rarely are we stuck in one way of thinking. I think that comes from knowing your team personnel and I think our interchanging of parts is what makes us a dangerous team; it’s part of who we are.”
Hyman has been the Oilers’ third-most important forward in the postseason behind the team’s superstars. He did not practice on Tuesday, and if he’s not available for Game 4, it’s even more imperative Edmonton find contributions elsewhere.
Case in point: the Oilers’ third line of Foegele, Ryan McLeod and Derek Ryan. They’ve really appeared to starting jelling — it was Foegele opening the Game 3 scoring off a feed from Ryan — and if Woodcroft can pry some more output from them, it would remove added pressure from the top six.
Regardless of specifically whom that production comes from, Edmonton knows improvements have to be made in their 5-on-5 offensive play. Digging into the team’s depth is their best course of action.
Vegas: More production from the blue line
The Golden Knights’ defense hasn’t realized its full offensive potential.
In three games against Edmonton, Vegas’ back end produced one goal (from Zach Whitecloud in Game 3) and seven total points.
In five games against Winnipeg, the Golden Knights got zero goals and eight points out of its blue line.
What if that were to change?
“We’d like a little bit more [from the defense],” coach Bruce Cassidy said Tuesday. “Got a big goal from Zach the other night. But for this particular series, we have to be real careful how much we’re wandering from the back end and how quick they can come back at us. I think the guys want to make sure you’re in position defensively and not be reckless, but you still in today’s game have to be on the attack and on the move.”
Naturally, the defense’s first job is keeping pucks out of the net. But Vegas’ lack of offensive production from that area is worth exploring — and ideally tapping into.
Playoffs are all about evolution. How can a team improve on the fly without having to make drastic changes? This is an easy area of adjustment for Vegas that could pay major dividends right away. Whether it’s blasting shots from the point through traffic, supporting forwards on the cycle or just getting pucks on net for rebound tries, seeing the Golden Knights’ defense become more engaged and in tune with its offense would add another element to their arsenal that the Oilers would have to account for moving ahead.
But that doesn’t mean there’s not a reason to be outraged. Indeed, it means the committee had a whole week to fix the mistakes it had already made, and it chose not to!
So, who should be most angry this week? Grab a pillow to scream into and a stress ball to clutch. We’ve got a lot to get off our chests.
A fact the committee made clear this week: Beating Mercer by 45 points is better than sitting at home on the couch.
So it is that Alabama, which was ranked behind Miami last week, beat up on a hapless FCS opponent and jumped Miami during the Canes’ open date.
Was there a message in this?
Surely, the message could be that taking the week off isn’t something to be rewarded, but we’re betting that’s not a message the committee wants to send while coaches are arguing about the value of playing in a conference title game.
Is the message that blowing out a team from the Southern Conference is really impressive? All due respect to UMass-Lowell, but we doubt it.
No, the message seems to be that the ACC needs to understand its place in the pecking order, and the line starts behind Alabama. Funny, because we thought the ACC already got that message last year, when Florida State was left out.
Alas, Miami went from No. 4 in the first rankings all the way to No. 8 now, thanks to a one-possession loss to a solid (and underrated) Georgia Tech team. But is that fair?
Miami has four wins over SP+ top-40 teams this season — the same number as Alabama and twice as many as Notre Dame.
Miami has a better loss than either of the two teams directly in front of it: Georgia Tech is No. 55 by SP+. Vanderbilt (one of two losses for Alabama, remember) is No. 61. Northern Illinois, which beat Notre Dame in South Bend, is No. 84.
Miami’s problem, of course, is it lacks a signature win. Notre Dame has Texas A&M. Alabama has Georgia. Miami has … Florida ?
So perhaps the Canes shouldn’t be quite as mad at the committee here as they should be furious with Louisville. The Cardinals were the lynchpin victory for both Miami and SMU (and helped Notre Dame, too), but they bungled their way to a loss to Stanford that will be studied by future generations as a model of ineptitude.
That the committee has woefully undervalued SMU all season, has shoved Miami behind the two-loss Tide, and thinks Clemson is worse than Colorado is the real message here though. The ACC is a one-bid league. The committee is spelling it out loud and clear.
Let’s state something at the top: Texas is probably quite good. It is, of course, not the Longhorns’ fault they joined the SEC and still drew a Big 12-caliber schedule. But facts are facts, and in a conference with six eight-win teams and four more already bowl eligible, Texas has played exactly two Power 4 opponents with a winning record this season. Those games resulted in a three-point win over Vanderbilt and a shellacking by Georgia.
But Texas has one loss, and the rest of the SEC competition has two or three. Is that all that should matter?
Will be interesting to see the SEC pecking order, and it’s hard to fault Texas for the schedule it was handed… but 1 team is not like the others here. pic.twitter.com/K6yISrTFN5
Ultimately, winning games is the most important thing, and the committee seems to recognize that with Indiana at No. 5, despite a schedule that might well have included a home game against Bishop Sycamore.
But is it all that matters? If Texas played Georgia’s schedule, would it still have a better record? Their head-to-head meeting would suggest otherwise.
Again, it’s hardly Texas’ fault the SEC rolled out the red carpet in Year 1. But it is up to Texas to impress when the spotlight is on, and since the blowout win against Michigan — a team vastly overrated at the time — the marquee moments have been mostly meh, right up to last week’s mediocrity against Arkansas.
Ultimately, an incredibly good SEC team — Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina or Alabama — is going to end up having played a markedly tougher schedule, proved they can hang with the best of the best, and either go on the road for a arduous opening-round matchup or be left out altogether.
(Seriously, how is Georgia the 10th-best team in the country? There’s no logical argument.)
But Texas? Even with a loss to A&M, it’s hard to see the Horns falling from No. 3 to a place outside the top 11.
There’s a good case to be made that the Jayhawks are an incredibly undervalued opponent right now. They opened the season ranked in the top 25, they’re just rounding into shape now, and they’ve been incredibly unlucky, going 1-5 in one-possession games. SP+ ranks Kansas as a better loss than Vandy or Georgia Tech. And BYU was still probably the better team in that game, but a special teams miscue cost the Cougars a win.
So what? BYU probably should’ve lost to SMU or Oklahoma State or Utah, and karma is a real jerk.
Still, let’s compare some résumés here.
Team A: 9-1, No. 13 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 12, loss to SP+ No. 84, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team B: 9-1, No. 15 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 46, loss to SP+ No. 5, 0 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team C: 9-1, No. 9 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 22, loss to SP+ No. 55, 2 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team D: 9-1, No. 8 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 13, loss to SP+ No. 42, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
They’re all in roughly the same demographic, sure, but if you’re splitting hairs, it’s hard not to split them in Team D’s direction, right?
Well, of course, Team D is BYU. And, of course, Team A (Notre Dame), B (Boise State) and C (Miami) are all ranked higher.
Way back when the playoff began and the committee was launched, the idea was not to adjust the rankings entirely off the previous week — sending teams that lose tumbling and teams that win inching up as attrition occurs above them — but to view each team’s résumé anew each week. But this committee is acting every bit like the AP voters of old — dropping Miami and Georgia and Tennessee and, particularly, BYU, because of recency bias rather than the sum total of the results. Heck, BYU is now behind SMU — a team with the same record the Cougars beat head to head!
And the real issue here? With BYU, Colorado and Arizona State all now ranked behind Boise State, the odds of the Big 12 missing an opening-round bye are looking pretty strong.
Maybe Coach Prime should use some of his considerable air time to mention that.
Speaking of Coach Prime, here we are again with the clearly superior two-loss Big 12 team ranked five spots behind Colorado.
Same record. Arizona State’s worst loss was by 10 without its starting quarterback. Colorado was blown out by Nebraska. ASU’s best win is against SP+ No. 18; Colorado’s is No. 49.
And, if we’re being honest, Kenny Dillingham’s postgame rants this season have been more entertaining than Deion’s, too.
ASU coach labels kicking game ‘atrocious,’ confirms tryouts for Monday
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham labels his team’s kicking game “atrocious” and says it will be hosting open tryouts on Monday.
This is a mistake by the committee, plain and simple.
5. The Power 4
We won’t get to say this very often, but the power players are getting screwed.
OK, not really. The SEC and Big Ten will be fine, and even if they’re not, they can cry themselves to sleep on giant piles of money.
But the fact remains that Boise State is primed for a first-round bye, and this week’s top 25 includes four teams from outside the traditional power conferences: Boise State, Army, Tulane and UNLV.
That’s the most during any one week since the final poll of the 2021 season that featured five, but among those were Houston, Cincinnati and BYU — all power conference teams now. Only twice before have four teams not currently in a power conference league (or the Pac-12) been ranked concurrently — in the wild COVID year of 2020, and for a single week in 2019 with Boise State, App State, Memphis and Navy.
Somewhere, Greg Sankey is diabolically petting a cat in an oversized chair and plotting revenge.
Also Angry: Duke, Pitt, Kansas State, Syracuse, James Madison and Washington State (all 7-3 or better, unranked and with more wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams than Illinois), SMU (9-1, No. 13), Georgia (8-2, No. 10. Seriously, who thinks there are nine better teams?)
College Football Senior Writer for ESPN. Insider for College Gameday.
Villanova has hired Oregon deputy athletic director/COO Eric Roedl as the Wildcats’ new athletic director, the school announced Tuesday.
Roedl replaces Mark Jackson, who departed after nine years for the same role at Northwestern, and gives Villanova a new face to lead its athletic department at a time when its nationally recognized basketball program is struggling for the third consecutive season.
Villanova chose Roedl, a Wildcats alum, in part because of the breadth of experience he brings from his time at Oregon. Roedl played a big role on a macro level at Oregon with the school’s No. 1-ranked football program and perennially successful basketball program.
University president Peter M. Donohue said in statement that he is confident Roedl is someone who can “successfully navigate the changing landscape of college athletics and who possesses the necessary skills to build on our legacy of success-athletically, academically, and administratively — well into the future.”
Roedl had a big part in the search that brought Dan Lanning from Georgia to Eugene, played a key role behind the scenes on Oregon’s move to the Big Ten and has strong Nike relationships from his time at the school, which began in 2012.
There’s also significant local experience for Roedl, who graduated from Villanova in 1997 and was a co-captain of the tennis team. He also worked at Temple for eight years, which included oversight of its basketball program.
“As a Villanova alum and former student-athlete, it is an honor to return to my alma mater,” Roedl said in a statement. “My vision is to collaborate with University leadership, the Villanova community, our coaches, staff, and student-athletes to maintain a championship culture throughout the athletic department that places the highest value on student-athlete experience and success and strives to match and promote the excellence of Villanova in everything we do.”
Roedl’s first big decision is expected to be on the future of basketball coach Kyle Neptune, who continues to struggle in his third season at Villanova. Neptune, who replaced Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright, is 37-36 and 2-3 this season with a loss to Columbia.
Wright won national titles at Villanova in 2016 and 2018, but the program has slipped dramatically since his retirement.
Roedl’s responsibilities at Oregon included a role as the sport administrator for men’s basketball. He also had oversight responsibility for business/financial operations, strategic and financial planning, human resources, contracts, information technology and equipment operations.
“Eric has played a key role over many years in the Oregon Athletics success,” Ducks athletic director Rob Mullens said in a statement. “Eric brings strong leadership, a commitment to the student-athlete experience and a competitive spirit to Villanova. The Wildcats have a bright future with Eric Roedl at the helm.”
Ducks football coach Dan Lanning added, “I’ve been fortunate enough to work closely with Eric and our football team the last three years here at Oregon and can say with confidence that Villanova is getting an all-star.”
Roedl will officially start in his new role in early January.
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders, who has his team pushing for a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff appearance, says he doesn’t intend on leaving despite talk about him being a possible candidate for other jobs, including in the NFL.
Sanders has engineered an impressive turnaround at Colorado (8-2), which already has doubled its wins total from 2023. The Pro Football Hall of Famer, who began his college coaching career at Jackson State, has been mentioned as a potential candidate for current or expected NFL coach openings, including the Dallas Cowboys, where he played from 1995 to 1999 and won two Super Bowls.
“I’m happy where I am, man,” Sanders said Tuesday. “I’ve got a kickstand down. You know what a kickstand is? … That means I’m resting. I’m good, I’m happy, I’m excited. I’m enthusiastic about where I am. I love it here, truly do.”
Sanders received a five-year, $29.5 million contract when he was hired at Colorado in late 2022, following a 1-11 season for the team. The 16th-ranked Buffaloes, who visit Kansas on Saturday, are two wins away from a spot in the Big 12 title game in their first season back in the conference. They are led by Heisman Trophy contenders Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, son of Deion Sanders. Both are set to depart for the NFL after the season, along with other key contributors.
Sanders on Tuesday also recognized several freshmen who are contributing to Colorado’s success this season.
“It says a lot about what we plan on being and the stability that we’re going to be here for a while,” Sanders said. “We ain’t going nowhere. We’re about to get comfortable.”