The Bank of England is set to impose another interest rate hike on the UK economy today, the 12th consecutive increase in its battle to curb rampant inflation.
Both financial markets and economists widely expect a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4.5%.
The Bank Rate had stood at 0.1% in December 2021 before the tightening cycle began to tackle the pace of price rises, which were initially caused by economies getting back in gear after the COVID pandemic.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the following February then exacerbated the inflation problem, with soaring energy costs piling additional misery on western nations.
Those considerable extra costs, not only faced by households, are still filtering through in the form of stubborn inflation for many goods and services despite wholesale energy costs easing in recent months.
The bank will have also been concerned that higher-than-expected wage increases will embed inflation in the economy over the months ahead.
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But there is good news on the CPI number just around the corner.
The inflation data for April is set to strip out the effects of the leap in household energy bills seen in April 2022 while fuel, which was also on the march at that time, is now well down on the levels seen in the same month a year ago.
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Some economists predict a CPI number for April below 8% just because of the energy impact alone.
This does not mean that prices are necessarily coming down and the cost of living crisis is over.
It is just that the contributions to inflation from the energy components are not so severe when it comes to measuring the pace of price increases over a 12-montn period.
Raising Bank Rate is a tool to reduce demand in the economy – to cool activity and help inflation ease back towards the Bank’s 2% target.
But there are consequences.
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April: Another interest rate rise ‘almost a done deal’
Chief among them is the impact on borrowers, especially households on variable mortgage deals or those who have had to secure a new fixed deal over the past year.
According to research by TotallyMoney and Moneycomms, a further quarter point interest rate rise will add £26 to monthly repayments for variable customers on the average UK property costing £270,708 with a 75% loan to value ratio.
The Bank rate increases, they said, meant the same customers were now facing forking out an extra £482 per month compared to pre-December 2021.
The Bank is mindful of the impact its actions are imposing on millions of households that are already struggling under the weight of meaty bills.
With that in mind, the remarks contained in the minutes of the Bank’s meeting and wider monetary policy report, all released at midday, will be crucial to understanding the likely way forward for borrowing costs.
The Bank is formally expected to raise its forecasts for economic growth as its staff no longer expect a recession this year but the outlook for Bank rate is a bit more clouded as inflation has proved more stubborn to bring down.
Bank governor Andrew Bailey’s comments to reporters will be especially closely watched for signs the rate-setting committee is edging towards a pause in its rate hikes.
The prospect of an end to the tightening will largely depend on the data ahead.
Andrew Hagger, personal finance expert at Moneycomms.co.uk, said: “Consumers and businesses will be praying that this is the last rate hike…. they will have their fingers crossed that inflation numbers will fall sharply before the next MPC (monetary policy committee) rate decision on 22nd June.
“Savers may be enjoying the best returns on cash savings for more than a decade but those with borrowing have been pushed to the brink by the financial impact of a dozen consecutive rate hikes.”
A renewable energy group founded by the former chief executive of Petrofac, the oilfield services group which collapsed during the autumn, will this week announce a £40m fundraising despite signs of growing tension over its leadership.
Sky News has learnt that Venterra, which was set up four years ago by Ayman Asfari, will unveil the capital injection as early as Monday.
Its backers will include existing shareholders Beyond Net Zero, a fund affiliated with the private equity firm General Atlantic, and First Reserve, another private equity investor.
The fundraising will come amid a challenging climate sweeping through swathes of the renewable energy sector.
While offshore wind remains an important element of the global energy transition, the shifting investment priorities, in part precipitated by Donald Trump’s second term as US president, have resulted in slower growth than anticipated for companies such as Venterra.
One source said there had been growing tensions in recent months over Mr Asfari’s role at the company and its prospects for 2026.
Venterra has already raised a total of £250m in equity since it was formed.
The Christmas period is upon us, and goods are flying off the shelves, but for some reason, the tills are not ringing as loudly as they should be.
Across the country, the five-finger discount is being used with such frequency that retailers are taking action into their own hands.
With concerns about the police response to shoplifting, many are now resorting to controversial facial recognition technology to catch culprits before they strike.
Sainsbury’s, Asda, Budgens and Sports Direct are among the high-street businesses that have signed up to Facewatch, a cloud-based facial recognition security system that scans faces as they enter a store. Those images are then compared to a database of known offenders and, if a match is found, an alert is set off to warn the business that a shoplifter has entered the premises.
It comes as official figures show shoplifting offences rose by 13% in the year to June, reaching almost 530,000 incidents. Figures reported in August showed more than 80% result in no charge.
At the same time, retailers are reporting more than 2,000 cases of violence or abuse against their staff every day. Faced with mounting losses and safety concerns, businesses say they are being forced to take security into their own hands because stretched police forces are only able to respond to a fraction of incidents.
Image: A Facewatch camera
At Ruxley Manor Garden Centre in south London, managing director James Evans said theft had become increasingly brazen and organised, with losses from shoplifting now accounting for around 1.5% of turnover. “That may sound small, but it represents a significant hit to the bottom line,” he said, pointing out that thousands of pounds’ worth of goods can be stolen in a single visit.
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“We have had instances where the children get sent in to do it. They know that the parents will be waiting in the car park and they’ll know that there’s nothing that we can do to stop them.”
Image: Gurpreet Narwan is seen at the garden centre while being shown how Facewatch works
Staff members here have also had their fair share of run-ins with shoplifters. In one case, employees trying to stop a suspected shoplifter were nearly struck by an accomplice in a car. “This is no longer just about stock loss,” said James, “It is about the safety of our staff.”
However, the technology is not without its critics. Civil liberties groups have warned that the expansion of this type of technology is eroding our privacy.
Silkie Carlo, director of Big Brother Watch, called it “a very dangerous kind of privatised policing industry”.
Image: Facewatch is seen in operation as retailers look to crack down on crime.
“[It] really threatens fairness and justice for us all, because now it’s the case that just going to do your supermarket shopping, a company is quietly taking your very sensitive biometric data. That’s data that’s as sensitive as your passport, and [it’s] making a judgement about whether you’re a criminal or not.”
Silkie said the organisation was routinely receiving messages from people who said they had been mistakenly targeted. They include Rennea Nelson, who was wrongly flagged as a shoplifter at a B&M store after being mistakenly added to the facial recognition database. Nelson said she was threatened with police action and warned that her immigration status could be at risk.
Image: Gurpreet’s profile can be seen on the Facewatch database
“He said to me, if you don’t get out, I’m going to call the police. So at that point I turned around and I was like, are you speaking to me? Then he was like yes, yes, your face set off the alarm because you’re a thief… At that point, I was around six to seven months pregnant and I was having a high-risk pregnancy. I was already going through a lot of anxiety and, so him coming over and shouting at me, it was like really triggering me.”
The retailer later acknowledged the error and apologised, describing it as a rare case of human mistake.
A spokesperson for B&M said: ‘This was a simple case of human error, and we sincerely apologise to Ms Nelson for any upset caused. Reported incidents like this are rare. Facewatch services are designed to operate strictly in compliance with UK GDPR and to help protect store colleagues from incidents of aggressive shoplifting.”
Image: The cloud-based technology has critics who argue that it amounts to a misuse of personal data and privacy
Nick Fisher, chief executive of Facewatch, said the backlash was disproportionate.
“Well, I think it’s designed to be quite alarmist, using language like ‘dystopian’, ‘orwellian’, ‘turning people into barcodes’,” he said.
“The inference of that is that we will identify people using biometric technology, hold and store their own, store their data. And that’s just, quite frankly, misleading. We only store and retain data of known repeat offenders, of which it’s been deemed to be proportionate and responsible to do so… I think in the world that we are currently operating in, as long as the technology is used and managed in a responsible, proportionate way, I can only see it being a force for good.”
Rogue retailers exposed in shoplifting crackdown
Yet, there is obviously widespread unease, if not anger, at the proliferation of this technology. Businesses are obviously alert to it, but the bottom line is calling.
The owner of the fashion brand LK Bennett is this weekend racing to find a saviour amid concerns that it could be heading for collapse for the second time in six years.
Sky News has learnt that the clothing chain, which was founded by Linda Bennett in 1990, is working with advisers at Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) on an accelerated sale process.
Industry sources said on Saturday that A&M had begun sounding out potential buyers and investors in the last few days.
At one stage, LK Bennett was among the most recognisable brands on the high street, expanding to 200 branded outlets in the UK and overseas markets including China, Russia and the US.
In its home market it now trades from just nine standalone stores, with a further 13 listed as concessions on its website.
It was unclear whether a sale of the loss-making brand was likely or whether LK Bennett’s existing backers might be prepared to inject more funding into the business.
Contingency plans for an insolvency are frequently drawn up by advisers drafted in to run accelerated sale processes.
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The brand is owned by Byland UK, a company established in 2019 for the purpose of rescuing LK Bennett from a previous brush with insolvency.
Byland UK was formed by Rebecca Feng, who ran LK Bennett’s Chinese franchises.
At the time of that deal, Ms Feng said: “Under our plan, the business will continue to operate out of the UK, looking to maintain the long-standing and undoubted heritage of the brand.
“This will be achieved through a combination of working with quality British design, and the business’s existing supply chain.”
Accounts for LK Bennett Fashion for the period ended January 27, 2024 show the company made a post-tax loss of £3.5m on turnover of £42.1m.
The figures showed a steep loss in sales from £48.8m in 2023.
According to the accounts, LK Bennett paid a dividend of £229,000 “at the start of the year when performance was doing well”.
“Given the decline in revenue, the directors do not recommend the payment of any further dividends.”
Ms Bennett founded the eponymous chain by opening a store in Wimbledon, southwest London, in 1990, and promised to “bring a bit of Bond Street to the high street”.
Her eye for design earned her the nickname ‘queen of the kitten heel’ and saw her products worn by the Princess of Wales and Theresa May, the former prime minister.
In 2008, Ms Bennett sold the business for an estimated £100m to a consortium led by the private equity firm Phoenix Equity Partners.
She retained a stake, and then bought back the remaining equity in 2017.
The company’s administration in 2019 resulted in the closure of 15 stores.
It was unclear how many people are now employed by LK Bennett.
LK Bennett has been contacted for comment, while A&M declined to comment.