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As new, advanced EVs take over the auto market in China, legacy automakers, including Volkswagen, General Motors, Toyota, BMW, Honda, and Mercedes Benz, will all lose significant market share, according to a new Greenpeace report.

The legacy automakers, who once dominated the market in China, are now at risk of losing their positions to domestic EV makers in the region.

Will legacy automakers lose out in China over EVs?

China, the world’s largest automaker, is rapidly progressing toward electric vehicles. According to South China Morning Post, EV deliveries made up 31% of overall car sales in the first quarter of 2023, up from 28% last year.

With China accounting for roughly two-thirds of global EV sales last year, many legacy automakers have been caught off guard.

Notably, Volkswagen and Toyota, the two largest automakers in the world, have both sounded the alarm.

Volkswagen, which has maintained its position in China since around the 90s, watched its overall market share dwindle by 3.6% last year with new EVs attracting Chinese buyers.

After 15 years of being on top, BYD, the largest EV maker in China, surpassed VW in passenger car sales for the first time in Q1 to become China’s best-selling brand.

VW-ID.7-electric-sedan
Volkswagen ID.7 (Source: VW)

Volkswagen revealed a new €1 billion (roughly $1.1 billion) investment to establish an EV development center in the region. The automaker says the new project, “100%TechCo,” will reduce development times by 30% for new EV products and tech.

Meanwhile, Toyota’s new CEO, Koji Sato, who took over in April, said after seeing the impact at the Shanghai Auto Show:

We need to increase our speed and efforts to firmly meet the customer expectations in the Chinese market.

With the market in China “rapidly progressing,” Toyota revealed it was working to develop a new EV-dedicated platform, due out in 2026, to power its next-generation electric models.

China-EVs-legacy-automakers
Toyota bZ3 in China (Source: FAW-Toyota)

“The era of gas and diesel vehicles is coming to an end”

The new Greenpeace report shows Volkswagen is the most vulnerable and will have the largest drop in sales.

According to the report, VW will see its share fall by another 3% to 7% by 2030. The report also forecasts GM will likely lose between 3% to 6%, Honda between 2% to 4%, Toyota between 1% and 3%, and BMW and Mercedes-Benz between 0.5% and 1.5%.

Bao Hang, a Greenpeace campaigner, said in a statement:

Toyota, Volkswagen and other carmakers that have been slow to embrace electric vehicles face significant loss of market share, even under the most conservative estimates.

The report predicts roughly one-third of the production capacity for combustion-powered vehicles will sit unused by 2030, suggesting automakers need to accelerate their timelines or face a glut in the market.

Electrek’s Take

Greenpeace expects Chinese automakers to build EVs better suited to consumer preferences. Several auto leaders have also echoed this idea.

Ford’s CEO said on the company’s Q1 earnings call, “It’s interesting to see how customers are no longer just attracted to traditional luxury brands with EVs or even hardware design anymore.” He continued explaining, “The best brands are offering integrated digital, retail, lifestyle, and experience that is software-defined.”

NIO, a leading EV startup in China, has a similar stance. The EV maker’s CEO, William Li (Li Bin), claimed even Tesla’s “Model 3 and Model Y are less complex in functions and configurations compared to Chinese car brands, such as BYD.”

What do you guys think? Are legacy automakers about to face a reckoning?

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Meet the newest EV from Hyundai – new HX19e electric excavator

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Meet the newest EV from Hyundai – new HX19e electric excavator

The HD arm of Hyundai has just released the first official images of the new, battery-electric HX19e mini excavator – the first ever production electric excavator from the global South Korean manufacturer.

The HX19e will be the first all-electric asset to enter series production at Hyundai Construction Equipment, with manufacturing set to begin this April.

The new HX19e will be offered with either a 32 kWh or 40 kWh li-ion battery pack – which, according to Hyundai, is nearly double the capacity offered by its nearest competitor (pretty sure that’s not correct –Ed.). The 40kWh battery allows for up to 6 hours and 40 minutes of continuous operation between charges, with a break time top-up on delivering full shift usability.

Those batteries send power to a 13 kW (17.5 hp) electric motor that drives an open-center hydraulic system. Hyundai claims the system delivers job site performance that is at least equal to, if not better than, that of its diesel-powered HX19A mini excavator.

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To that end, the Hyundai XH19e offers the same 16 kN bucket breakout force and a slightly higher 9.4 kN (just over 2100 lb-ft) dipper arm breakout force. The maximum digging depth is 7.6 feet, and the maximum digging reach is 12.9 feet. Hyundai will offer the new electric excavator with just four selectable options:

  • enclosed cab vs. open canopy
  • 32 or 40 kWh battery capacity

All HX19es will ship with a high standard specification that includes safety valves on the main boom, dipper arm, and dozer blade hydraulic cylinders, as well as two-way auxiliary hydraulic piping allows the machine to be used with a range of commercially available implements. The hydraulics needed to operate a quick coupler, LED booms lights, rotating beacons, an MP3 radio with USB connectivity, and an operator’s seat with mechanical suspension are also standard.

Like its counterparts at Volvo CE, the new Hyundai excavator uses automotive-style charging ports to take advantage of existing infrastructure at fleet depots and public charging stations. More detailed specifications, dimensions, and pricing should be announced by bauma.

Electrek’s Take

HX19e electric mini excavator; via Hyundai Construction Equipment.

The ability to operate indoors, underground, or in environments like zoos and hospitals were keeping noise levels down is of critical importance to the success of an operation makes electric equipment assets like these coming from Hyundai a must-have for fleet operators and construction crews that hope to remain competitive in the face of ever-increasing noise regulations. The fact that these are cleaner, safer, and cheaper to operate is just icing on that cake.

SOURCE | IMAGES: HD Hyundai; via Construction Index, Equipment World.

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Harbinger guarantees incentive pricing to combat Trump Administration chaos

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Harbinger guarantees incentive pricing to combat Trump Administration chaos

With the Trump Administration fully in power and Federal electric vehicle incentives apparently on the chopping block, many fleet buyers are second-guessing the push to electrify their fleets. To help ease their minds, Harbinger is launching the IRA Risk-Free Guarantee, promising to cover the cost of anticipated IRA credits if the rebate goes away.

The‬‭ Inflation Reduction Act‬‭ (IRA) 45W Commercial Clean Vehicle‬ Credit‬‭ offers up to $40,000 per medium-duty commercial EV. Originally proposaed as part of President Biden’s Green New Deal package, the incentive‬‭ was put in place to help modernize commercial fleets by overcoming obstacles like the higher up-front costs of EVs.

In the case of a Harbinger S524 Class 5 chassis with a 140 kWh battery capacity with an MSRP of $103,200, the company will offer an IRA Risk-Free Guarantee credit of $12,900 at the time of purchase, bringing initial cost down to $90,300. This matches the typical selling price of an equivalent Freightliner MT-45 diesel medium-duty chassis.

“We created (the IRA Risk-Free Guarantee) program to eliminate the financial uncertainty for customers who are interested in EV adoption, but are concerned about the future of the IRA tax credit,” said John Harris, Co-founder and CEO of Harbinger. “For electric vehicles to go mainstream, they must be cost-competitive with diesel vehicles. While the IRA tax credit helps bridge that gap, we remain committed to price parity with diesel, even if the credit disappears. Our vertically integrated approach enables us to keep costs low, shields us from tariff volatility, and ensures long-term‭ price stability for our customers.”

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Harbinger‬‭ recently revealed a book of business consisting of 4,690 binding orders. Those orders are valued at approximately $500 million, and fueled a $100 million Series B raise.

Electrek’s Take

Harbinger truck charging; via Harbinger.

One of the most frequent criticisms of electric vehicle incentives is that they encourage manufacturers and dealers to artificially inflate the price of their vehicles. In their heads, I imagine the scenario goes something like this:

  • you looked at a used Nissan LEAF on a dealer’s lot priced at $14,995
  • a new bill passes and the state issues a $2500 used EV rebate
  • you decide to go back to the dealer and buy the car
  • once you arrive, you find that the price is now $16,995

While it’s commendable that Harbinger is taking action and sacrificing some of its profits to keep the business growing and the overall cause of fleet electrification moving forward, one has to wonder how they can “suddenly” afford to offer these massive discounts in lieu of government incentives – and how many other EV brands could probably afford to do the same.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Harbinger.

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It just gets worse for Nikola as massive hydrogen recall follows bankruptcy

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It just gets worse for Nikola as massive hydrogen recall follows bankruptcy

Whoever is left at Nikola after the fledgling truck-maker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month is probably having a worse week than you – the company issued a recall with the NHTSA for 95 of its hydrogen fuel cell-powered semi trucks.

Nikola filed for Chapter 11 protections just a few weeks after we predicted the company would go “belly up,” reporting that the company was planning to halt production of its hydrogen fuel cell-powered semi trucks while, at the same time, Nikola’s stock had sunk to a 52-week low following a formal NHTSA complaint claiming the fuel cell shuts down unpredictably.

That complaint seems to have led to the posthumous recall of 95 (out of about 200) Nikola-built electric semi trucks.

The latest HFCEV recall is on top of the 2023 battery recall that impacted nearly all of Nikola’s deployed BEV fleet. Clean Trucking is citing a January 31, 2025 report from the NHTSA revealing that, as of the end of 2024, Nikola had yet to complete repairs for 98 of its affected BEVs. The ultimate fate of those vehicles remains unclear.

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Electrek’s Take

Nikola Coyote Container completes historic trip in fuel cell truck
Image via Coyote Container.

I’ve received a few messages complaining that I “haven’t covered” the Nikola bankruptcy – which is bananas, since I reported that it was coming five weeks before it happened and there was no “new” information presented in the interim (he said, defensively).

Still, it’s worth looking back on Nikola’s headlong dive into the empty swimming pool of hydrogen, and remind ourselves that even its most enthusiastic early adopters were suffering.

“The truck costs five to ten times that of a standard Class 8 drayage [truck],” explained William Hall, Managing Member and Founder of Coyote Container. “On top of that, you pay five to ten times the Federal Excise Tax (FET) and local sales tax, [which comes to] roughly 22%. If you add the 10% reserve not covered by any voucher program, you are at 32%. Thirty-two percent of $500,000 is $160,000 for the trucker to somehow pay [out of pocket].”

After several failures that left his Nikola trucks stranded on the side of the road, the first such incident happening with just 900 miles on the truck’s odometer, a NHTSA complaint was filed. It’s not clear if it was Hall’s complaint, but the complaint seems to address his concerns, below.

NHTSA ID Nu. 11621826

Screencap; via NHTSA.

Optionally, you could just read Hall’s summary of the Nikola situation, in his own words: “I have dealt with more tow trucks in the last 10 months than in my entire 62 years on this Earth.”

The company issued a technical service bulletin (TSB) on October 29th, just 13 days after the official NHTSA complaint was filed.

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