EV big rigs already make sense for half of the $4 trillion freight truck market, says Einride CEO
The diesel-powered trucking industry moves a majority of freight, up to 70% in the U.S. alone. In California, trucks are the largest single source of vehicle-produced air pollution that “spew 70% of the state’s smog-forming gases and 80% of carcinogenic diesel pollutants,” according to the California Air Resources Board, making the trucking sector a key part of the emissions reduction challenge.
Swedish EV trucking startup Einride has been able to so far go toe-to-toe with Tesla and its Semi in attracting top corporate clients. Both have deals with PepsiCo — Einride in the U.K. and Tesla in California.
Einride also has global shipping giant Maersk, GE Appliances, AB InBev, Bridgestone, and Beyond Meat as customers.
While many of these deals are narrow to start with, Einride founder and CEO Robert Falck says the business case already exists today for many more freight players to make the transition from diesel to electric, up to half of the industry, according to Falck.
“In the $4 trillion freight mobility space, between 40%-50% should be electric driven by the business case today,” Falck said on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange” in an interview on Thursday after his company ranked No. 13 on the 2023 CNBC Disruptor 50 list. “That means a $2 trillion opportunity already today,” he added.
Einride is one of three companies focused on trucking to make the 2023 Disruptor 50 list — Convoy, founded by former Amazon executives, came in at No. 47, and Flock Freight, the only certified B Corp in the freight sector, came in at No. 20. Additional logistics companies to make the list focused on technology-based solutions in transportation and climate include Flexport and Lineage Logistics.
The numbers on the EV cost equation, though, remain less than an exact science. A month ago, when appearing on CNBC to discuss the new deal with PepsiCo, Falk estimated that 30%-40% of the market could make the EV transition based on cost today. Not much has changed for the better in the math in just a month. In fact, diesel prices continue to trend lower, and haven’t been this low since before Russia invaded Ukraine, taking away a short-term advantage for the EV argument.
Diesel prices hit an all-time high last year in June of last year, and have fallen by 25% or more since then.
“In the near-term, of course, the business case for diesel becomes slightly better,” Falck said in the April interview.
But he stressed that the big brand examples of companies already signing on as clients prove the case. “They want to get the benefits of going sustainable but would not be willing to do it without a cost-competitive way,” he said on Thursday.
Diesel vs. EV economics
In many markets, independent of short-term movements in diesel prices, EV is cheaper for trucking, according to Falck, though it does depend on the cost of electricity. And as trucking hardware becomes cheaper and more widely available, the case for the EV transition will increase.
Part of the challenge is in the recharging, In September, the Department of Transportation approved EV-charging station plans for all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, covering about 75,000 miles of highways. States also have access to more than $1.5 billion in funds to help construct the chargers.
Einride’s business model, Falck stressed, and the business case for its customers, is not just about the truck manufacturing — it does not manufacture the trucks itself — but the turnkey solution that extends from the vehicle to the trailer design to the infrastructure (e.g. charging) to operations across the transportation system and its digital freight network solution.
In freight, unlike the consumer market, “it’s not about range, it’s about how to secure the business case,” he said.
Its trucks in the Class 8 tractor-trailer niche have a range of 400 miles.
Swedish electric vehicle maker Einride will supply two of its heavy-duty trucks to PepsiCo as part of an expansion into the U.K.
Einride
Independent research does support the idea of more freight going EV. Nonprofit newsgroup Cal Matters found that the total cost of buying and operating an electric semi-truck could be anywhere from $765,000 to $1.1 million, while a gas or diesel truck ranges from $919,000 to $1.2 million.
Interest in the state of California is high because the California Air Resources Board is requiring truck manufacturers to begin phasing in available heavy-duty EV technology by 2024. But in the state, which is a leader in climate technology and climate regulation — and one of the world’s largest economies — for now at least, the larger focus is on short-haul trucking.
California has set the goal of all zero-emission short-haul drayage fleets — for operations in and nearby ports — by 2035. Schneider, a truckload, intermodal and logistics service, announced its battery-electric truck (BEV) fleet back in 2021, and the first BEV arrived at a Southern California port this year.
″We’re going to be operating those in and out of railheads for intermodal customers, and so we’ll start with five taking this month and will be up to about that hundred number by the time we get through the calendar year,” Schneider CEO Mark Rourke said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” in February.
Autonomous big rigs
But bigger trucks are critical for climate goals. Medium and heavy trucks make up only about 4% of vehicles in the U.S., but because of their larger size and greater travel distances, the vehicles consume more than 25% of total highway fuel and represent nearly 30% of highway carbon emissions, according to the Department of Energy.
While Einride is making bold calls about the EV transition today, Falck is cautious on one aspect of the technology that gets a lot of attention: autonomous trucking. He said Einride does see the short-haul market being a better fit today for the autonomous transition, and described the process of moving to autonomous trucks as “gradual.”
For most goods being moved by autonomous electric vehicles today, it is inside warehouses and logistics centers. “We’ve taken the same approach,” he said. “We start with manual electric and gradually introduce more and more autonomy. We’re already doing autonomous for clients, but not everywhere. We start with the simple applications, fenced-off areas … low speeds.”
“We gradually grow into this,” Falck said. “This is not just about making a truck autonomous, it’s changing the entire transport system.”
That will be measured in decades, in his option. “In 25 years, we will predominantly be electric and autonomous,” Falck said.
—CNBC’s Kaitlin Balasaygun contributed reporting.
On today’s road-ready episode of Quick Charge, Tesla released data hinting that its Autopilot ADAS solution may be less safe to use than before. We’ve also got some news from inside the Tesla diner experience, plus a 250,000 mile Ford Mustang Mach-E that still has more than 90% of its battery capacity left!
We also cover Lucid’s plans to reinvigorate American EV manufacturing WITHOUT help from Washington by forging stronger bonds between automakers, mineral miners, and battery recyclers – plus: Optimus breaks down.
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Environment
91% of renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels, but Trump just defunded a vital US grid upgrade
Renewables continued to dominate fossil fuels on price in 2024, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The big takeaway: Clean energy is the cheapest power around – by a wide margin. So it’s pretty bad business that the biggest grid upgrade project in US history just got kneecapped by Trump’s Department of Energy to stop the “green scam.”
On average, solar power was 41% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel in 2024, and onshore wind was 53% cheaper. Onshore wind held its spot as the most affordable new source of electricity at $0.034 per kilowatt-hour, with solar close behind at $0.043/kWh.
IRENA’s report says global renewables added 582 gigawatts (GW) of capacity last year, which avoided about $57 billion in fossil fuel costs. That’s not a small dent. Even more impressive: 91% of all new renewable power projects built in 2024 were cheaper than any new fossil fuel option.
Technological innovation, strong supply chains, and economies of scale are driving the cost advantage. Battery prices are helping too: IRENA says utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) are now 93% cheaper than they were in 2010, with prices averaging $192/kWh in 2024.
But it’s not all smooth sailing. The report flags short-term cost pressures from trade tensions, material bottlenecks, and rising costs in some regions. North America and Europe feel more squeezed than others due to permitting delays, limited grid capacity, and higher system costs.
Meanwhile, countries in Asia, Africa, and South America could see faster cost drops thanks to stronger learning rates and abundant solar and wind resources.
One big challenge is financing. In developing countries, high interest rates and perceived investor risk inflate the levelized cost of electricity of renewables. For example, wind power generation costs were about the same in Europe and Africa last year ($0.052/kWh), but financing made up a much larger share of project costs in Africa. IRENA estimates the cost of capital was just 3.8% in Europe but 12% in Africa.
And even if projects are affordable to build, many are getting stuck in grid connection queues or stalled by slow permitting. Those “integration costs” are now a major hurdle, especially in fast-growing G20 and emerging markets.
Tech is helping with some of that – hybrid solar-wind-storage setups and AI-powered tools are improving grid performance and project efficiency. But digital infrastructure and grid modernization still lag in many places, holding renewables back.
“Renewables are rising, the fossil fuel age is crumbling,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “But leaders must unblock barriers, build confidence, and unleash finance and investment.”
IRENA’s bottom line is that the economics of renewables are stronger than ever, but to keep the momentum going, governments and markets need to reduce risks, streamline permitting, and invest in grids.
Electrek’s Take
Speaking of unblocking barriers and investment, the opposite just happened today in Trump World. The Department of Energy just canceled a $4.9 billion conditional loan commitment for the 800-mile Grain Belt Express Phase 1 transmission project, the biggest transmission line in US history.
It’s a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line connecting Kansas wind farms across four states. It will connect four grids, improving reliability. It will be able to power 50 data centers and create 5,500 jobs. Phase 1 is due to start next year.
The new grid will also connect all forms of energy, not just renewables, and it’s super pathetic that Invenergy had to stoop to put up a map on the project’s home page today showing how it will transmit fossil fuels, the “existing dispatchable generation source,” and felt it had to leave renewables off the map entirely. Sorry, Kansas wind farms, you get no mention because this administration doesn’t like you.
Chicago-based Invenergy plans to build the 5 GW Grain Belt Express in phases from Kansas to Illinois. The company says the project will save customers $52 billion in energy costs over 15 years. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) complained to Trump about the project, calling it a “green scam,” and got the government loan canceled based on a lie, claiming it would cost taxpayers “billions.” This was Invenergy’s response on X:
As usual, Trump was swayed by the last person in the room, and Hawley shot an entire region in the foot when an upgraded grid and more renewables are needed more than ever. Hopefully, this project can continue despite the ignorant shortsightedness coming from the Republicans (who ironically released an AI Action Plan today).
It beggars belief that this political party is this isolated from the rest of the world – well, besides our besties Iran, Libya, and Yemen, who aren’t part of the Paris Agreement either – and being that the US is the world’s No 2 polluter, the world will suffer for its arrogance.
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 96% of new US power generating capacity in first third of 2025
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Environment
Elon Musk with a straight face: Tesla Robotaxi will cover half of US population by end of the year
Elon Musk claims that Tesla Robotaxi will cover half of the US population by the end of the year and we can’t stop laughing.
Today, Tesla released its Q2 2025 financial results.
Earnings are down 23% on falling electric vehicle sales and lower margins, but Tesla’s stock is not crashing because CEO Elon Musk is promising a return to earnings growth through autonomous driving and humanoid robots.
We previously reported on how Tesla’s Robotaxi effort is a major shift in strategy for Tesla, which has been promising unsupervised self-driving in its customer vehicles for years.
Instead, the Robotaxi service consists of an internal fleet operating within a geo-fenced area, currently only in Austin, Texas, and powered by teleoperation and in-car supervisors with a finger on a kill switch at all times.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”
He added that he believes that regulatory approval will be the biggest hurdle, even though Tesla’s current service requires a Tesla employee in each car, which is a major hurdle to scaling.
Musk and Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s head of self-driving, both claimed that the Bay Area will be the first market where Tesla plans to expand its Robotaxi service. However, Elluswamy added that the program will initially have a driver in the driver’s seat.
This makes sense considering we learned last week that Tesla has yet to apply for the proper permits to operate an autonomous ride-hailing service in California.
Electrek’s Take
This is laughable. Who believes that? How can Elon say that with a straight face when Tesla only has a joke of a system that requires supervision at all times?
For context, Tesla currently only operates in a little over half of Austin, Texas. Here’s the list of all the metro areas Tesla would need to launch Robotaxi by the end of the year to cover half of the US population:
| Rank | Metro Area | Population | Cumulative Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York | 19.15 M | 19.15 M |
| 2 | Los Angeles | 12.68 M | 31.83 M |
| 3 | Chicago | 9.04 M | 40.87 M |
| 4 | Houston | 6.89 M | 47.76 M |
| 5 | Dallas–Fort Worth | 6.73 M | 54.49 M |
| 6 | Miami | 6.37 M | 60.86 M |
| 7 | Atlanta | 6.27 M | 67.13 M |
| 8 | Philadelphia | 5.86 M | 72.99 M |
| 9 | Washington, DC | 5.60 M | 78.59 M |
| 10 | Phoenix | 4.83 M | 83.42 M |
| 11 | Boston | 4.40 M | 87.82 M |
| 12 | Seattle | 3.58 M | 91.40 M |
| 13 | Detroit | 3.54 M | 94.94 M |
| 14 | San Diego | 3.37 M | 98.31 M |
| 15 | San Francisco | 3.36 M | 101.67 M |
| 16 | Tampa | 3.04 M | 104.71 M |
| 17 | Minneapolis–St. Paul | 2.62 M | 107.33 M |
| 18 | St. Louis | 2.80 M | 110.13 M |
| 19 | Denver | 2.99 M | 113.12 M |
| 20 | Baltimore | 2.83 M | 115.95 M |
| 21 | Orlando | 2.76 M | 118.71 M |
| 22 | Charlotte | 2.75 M | 121.46 M |
| 23 | San Antonio | 2.60 M | 124.06 M |
| 24 | Austin | 2.42 M | 126.48 M |
| 25 | Pittsburgh | 2.43 M | 128.91 M |
| 26 | Sacramento | 2.42 M | 131.33 M |
| 27 | Las Vegas | 2.32 M | 133.65 M |
| 28 | Cincinnati | 2.26 M | 135.91 M |
| 29 | Kansas City | 2.19 M | 138.10 M |
| 30 | Columbus | 2.14 M | 140.24 M |
| 31 | Cleveland | 2.16 M | 142.40 M |
| 32 | Indianapolis | 2.12 M | 144.52 M |
| 33 | San José | 1.99 M | 146.51 M |
| 34 | Virginia Beach–Norfolk | 1.76 M | 148.27 M |
| 35 | Providence | 1.68 M | 149.95 M |
| 36 | Milwaukee | 1.57 M | 151.52 M |
| 37 | Jacksonville | 1.60 M | 153.12 M |
| 38 | Raleigh–Durham | 1.45 M | 154.57 M |
| 39 | Nashville | 1.43 M | 156.00 M |
| 40 | Oklahoma City | 1.42 M | 157.42 M |
| 41 | Richmond | 1.30 M | 158.72 M |
| 42 | Louisville | 1.28 M | 160.00 M |
| 43 | Salt Lake City | 1.26 M | 161.26 M |
| 44 | New Orleans | 1.23 M | 162.49 M |
| 45 | Hartford | 1.20 M | 163.69 M |
| 46 | Buffalo | 1.11 M | 164.80 M |
| 47 | Birmingham | 1.10 M | 165.90 M |
This is ridiculous. The lies are becoming increasingly larger and more brazen. We know what that means.
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