Adam Boulton: Sir Keir Starmer risks complacency by suggesting job all but done after local elections
As daylight broke on the English local election results a week ago, Sir Keir Starmer popped up in the Kent council district of Medway – which Labour had just captured from the Conservatives – to declare that Labour is “on course for a majority government”.
He stuck to his line doggedly this week under tough, evidence-based questioning from Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby.
A Labour majority government after the next election would be a big deal for the United Kingdom.
It would be the first switch in direction, from rightward to leftward, for 14 years – after four consecutive general election defeats for Labour.
So was Sir Keir right? Is Labour on course for a majority victory? Was his bold claim good campaigning? What should Labour do between now and then to make it come true?
Another majority victory would be a stunning achievement for Labour in this Conservative-leaning country, in which the Tory Party have enjoyed the lion’s share of government over the last two centuries.
Of the five Labour prime ministers since 1945 – there have been 12 Conservative PMs in that time – only Clement Attlee and Tony Blair scored knockout victories at the first time of asking.
Harold Wilson, Labour’s only other election winner, took two general elections close together each time in the 1960s and 1970s to consolidate his position.
Two of Britain’s best-known election analysts share a similar verdict after going through the local election statistics: very bad for the Conservatives, good but not there yet for Labour and promising, for lower stakes, for the Liberal Democrats and Greens.
Sir Keir joins party members in Chatham, Kent, where Labour has taken overall control of Medway Council for the first time since 1998 after winning 30 of its 59 seats.
On the basis of last week’s vote neither guru points to Labour enjoying a parliamentary majority of 326 MPs or more.
For Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher of Oxford’s Nuffield Politics Research Centre puts general election equivalent vote shares at Labour 36%, Conservatives 29%, Liberal Democrats 18% and others 17%.
Sir John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, marked both main parties down slightly on the BBC: Labour 35%, Conservatives 26%, Liberal Democrats 20%, others 19%.
For reference, shares at the last general election in 2019 were roughly Labour 32%, Conservative 44%, Liberal Democrat 12% others 12%).
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This is how the local election unfolded
What would political picture look like if last week’s local vote had been a general election?
Had last Thursday been a general election, Professor Thrasher projects that Labour would have had 298 MPs (+95), with the Tories on 238 (-127), Liberal Democrats 39 (+28) and others (including the Scottish National Party) 75.
Sir Keir would either have found himself the leader of a minority government, dependent on passive endorsement from other parties, or in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
There is one analysis which is more hopeful for Labour. Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at Trinity College, Oxford, says “Starmer might be right”.
Plymouth City Council leader Tudor Evans takes a selfie with (left to right) shadow levelling Up, housing and communities secretary Lisa Nandy, Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner
It should be said that any projections for the whole UK from last week’s elections are fiendishly difficult. Last week was the biggest test of voter opinion before the next general election but it only involved some councils in parts of England, and none in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or London.
Electoral geography is changing
Rather than work on the basis of uniform swings across the country, Professor Fisher delves into detailed voting patterns in types of constituencies. He argues that the electoral geography is changing.
The swing to Labour is bigger in seats where it is the challenger to the Tories, he says, and the Brexit dividend is dwindling, which should mean an extra 15 MPs for Labour above the national trend.
Opinion polls also suggest Labour should pick up 11 seats in Scotland. “That would give Labour a majority of 32,” he writes in Prospect Magazine.
Maybe. Veterans of the three New Labour victories point out that “Tony” never took winning for granted and indeed prepared elaborately for talks with the Liberal Democrats, had he fallen short in what turned out to be the Labour landslide win in 1997.
Read more:
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Explained: How can Sir Keir Starmer get No 10 keys without a majority?
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Starmer hails ‘amazing results’
Perhaps Sir Keir simply wanted to thank his supporters by cheering them up. Unfortunately he was also in danger of looking complacent by suggesting the job was all but done.
Why campaign harder in the months until the next general election if it is a done deal? If you are not sure, why bother to make a tactical switch to Labour, if their boss says he’s going to win anyway?
If Labour ends up the biggest party in a hung parliament, Sir Keir will be a failure in his own terms, having weakened his own hand for any talks with other parties.
Rishi Sunak gave a hint of the direction he thinks the contest is really moving at Prime Minister’s Questions when he rebuffed Sir Keir’s buoyant mood with a quotation from Tony Blair: “The right honourable gentleman can be as cocky as he likes about the local elections; come a general election, policy counts.”
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Beth Rigby analyses PMQs
When Mr Blair said that, in May 2007, the party roles were reversed.
Blair was prime minister, David Cameron the leader of the opposition. Mr Blair would hand over to Gordon Brown a few weeks later. Labour had just lost 900 seats in council elections. Mr Blair added: “On policy we win, he loses”. He was not proved right when the election came around in 2010.
But parliament was hung with Mr Cameron on 306 MPs, 20 short of a majority. Mr Sunak or his researchers clearly see an analogy and are working to limit the extent of the damage to their party.
Sir Keir on course for an underwhelming success
Voters seem to agree that Sir Keir is on course for an underwhelming success. In a YouGov poll this week, 22% thought Labour would have a narrow overall majority while 17% expected it to be the largest party in a hung parliament.
Just 11% are waiting for a big Labour victory. Only a third of those surveyed gave the Conservatives any chance of forming the next government.
A YouGov/TimesRadio poll asking 2019 Conservative voters their top reason for switching to Labour found 30% think the Conservatives are doing a bad job; 15% feel a need for change; 11% no longer trust the Tories.
The overwhelming motivations are negativity about the Conservatives rather than positivity towards Labour or its leadership.
Read more:
Analysis: Sir Keir is desperate for a majority but knows he may fall short
Labour drops pledge to scrap tuition fees
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‘A disappointing night overall’ for the Conservatives
In these circumstances Labour strategists see little need to strengthen their party’s policy offering now. They point out that Mr Blair kept back his five pledges card, including the no tax rise guarantee, until weeks before polling day while the biggest economic initiative – Bank of England independence – was kept under wraps until Mr Blair and Mr Brown were safely in Downing Street.
Sir Keir and Mr Sunak have each unveiled pallid five pledge lists of their own. But continuing economic difficulties are already discrediting their cautiously caveated offers.
Labour’s best-defined pledges are economic raids on soft targets such private schools, oil companies and big business. Sir Keir is devoting much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth. Repetition of these lines may perhaps bring over new voters.
Sir Keir has devoted much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth.
After canvassing recently in prosperous “safe Tory” constituencies, some veteran door-knockers are inclined to agree with Sir Keir and Professor Fisher that the mood of the voters has changed irrevocably against the Conservatives.
The Tories will be defeated heavily by Labour when ever the election comes, they fear, even at the latest date in 18 months’ time.
A more dispassionate analysis is that the Labour Party need to make 139 gains for a Fisher-style victory. They have only done that three times in history.
“You’d have to ask yourself ‘is that the zeitgeist of 1924?” wonders Professor Thrasher.
In 1929 Labour fielded candidates across the board for the first time. 1945 witnessed “the days of hope” when Attlee turned out the wartime leader Churchill. In 1997 the Tories were sleaze-ridden and divided, while Labour united behind the charismatic leadership of Mr Blair.
Is Britain “on course” for another epochal election? The evidence is mixed so far.
Former anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq has been named in a third inquiry being launched by authorities in Bangladesh investigating money laundering and power misuse.
At a media briefing in Dhaka held hours after Ms Siddiq resigned as a minister, investigators confirmed they were working on another probe involving the Labour MP.
It is the third Bangladesh inquiry and comes on top of questions about London properties she lives in or has lived in with links to her aunt, the ousted Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party.
Director general of the Anti-Corruption Commission Akhtar Hossain told Sky News the organisation was “preparing another investigation against Tulip Siddiq and her uncle Tarique Siddique for money laundering, power misuse, and illegally occupying Bangladesh government property”.
Mr Hossain also said the investigation team in Bangladesh would contact the UK authorities if additional information was required.
A spokesperson for Ms Siddiq said: “No evidence has been presented for these allegations.
“Tulip Siddiq has not been contacted by anyone on the matter and totally denies the claims.”
Tarique Siddique is Ms Siddiq’s uncle – the husband of her mother’s younger sister – and previously served as a defence and security adviser to her aunt Sheikh Hasina.
Ms Hasina fled Bangladesh in August and resigned her post after 20 years amid weeks of deadly protests.
Read more: What allegations is Tulip Siddiq facing?
Tulip Siddiq with Sheikh Hasina in 2009. Pic: Reuters
The new government has since accused Ms Hasina’s Awami League administration of crimes and corruption while in office.
Ms Siddiq quit as anti-corruption minister on Tuesday after links with her aunt and her political regime came under scrutiny.
It is claimed she has benefited financially from three London properties linked to her aunt and her allies.
She referred herself to the prime minister’s standards adviser Sir Laurie Magnus who said he had “not identified evidence of improprieties” but added it was “regrettable” Ms Siddiq had not been more alert to the “potential reputational risks” of the ties to her aunt.
Ms Siddiq said continuing in her role would be “a distraction” for the government but insisted she had done nothing wrong.
Read more: Tulip Siddiq boasted of links with ousted Bangladesh PM
Tulip Siddiq (far left) with her aunt, Sheikh Hasina (third left), and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a 2013 signing ceremony in the Kremlin as Moscow lent $1.5bn to help build a nuclear power station. File pic: AP
Earlier this week, Sky News revealed Bangladesh investigators were looking into Ms Siddiq as part of a separate corruption inquiry into the illegal allocation of land in a new town development outside of Dhaka.
She was also named in an investigation into the alleged embezzlement of $5bn (£3.9bn) from a nuclear power project in the country developed in partnership with Russia.
Labour sources suggested these accusations were not genuine and Ms Siddiq had not been contacted by anyone in Bangladesh about the inquiries.
Nobel peace-prize winning economist Muhammad Yunus, who is leading Bangladesh’s interim government, said the London properties used by Ms Siddiq should be investigated and returned if she is found to have benefited from “plain robbery”.
Following her resignation, Professor Yunus said there will be a thorough investigation into properties and assets “tied to stolen Bangladeshi funds, including those linked to individuals with connections to the previous regime” and if it is proven they have benefited from embezzlement “we expect those assets to be returned to Bangladesh, where they rightfully belong”.
“Tulip Siddiq may not have entirely understood the source of the money and property that she was enjoying in London, but she knows now and should seek forgiveness from the people of Bangladesh,” he added.
Singer Linda Nolan, who rose to fame alongside her sisters in The Nolans, has died after several years of battling cancer.
The Irish star, 65, and her sisters Coleen, Maureen, Bernie, Denise and Anne, had a run of hits in the late 1970s and ’80s – including the disco classic I’m In The Mood For Dancing.
Paying tribute on The Nolans‘ X account, her sisters described her as “a pop icon and beacon of hope”, who “faced incurable cancer with courage, grace and determination, inspiring millions”.
Linda died peacefully in hospital this morning, “embraced with love and comfort” with her siblings by her side, her agent Dermot McNamara said in a statement.
“As a member of The Nolans, one of the most successful girl groups of all time, Linda achieved global success; becoming the first Irish act to sell over a million records worldwide, touring the world and selling over 30 million records,” he said.
“Her distinctive voice and magnetic stage presence brought joy to fans around the world, securing her place as an icon of British and Irish entertainment.
“Beyond her incredible career, Linda dedicated her life to helping others, helping raise over £20m for numerous charities, including Breast Cancer Now, Irish Cancer Society and Samaritans, amongst countless others. Her selflessness and tireless commitment to making a difference in the lives of others will forever be a cornerstone of her legacy.”
Five of the Nolans in 1983 (L-R): Linda, Anne, Bernie, Coleen and Maureen. Pic: PA
Linda’s death came after she was admitted to hospital with pneumonia over the weekend. She began receiving end-of-life care after slipping into a coma on Tuesday, Mr McNamara said.
Details of a celebration of the star’s “remarkable life” will be shared in due course, he added.
Linda was born to Tommy and Maureen Nolan in Dublin on 23 February 1959, the sixth of eight children.
Her parents were both singers and keen to turn their young family into a musical troupe. Linda made her stage debut aged just four.
Those early years put the siblings on track for a career in show business which lasted for decades. As well as I’m In The Mood For Dancing, The Nolans had hits with Gotta Pull Myself Together, Attention To Me and Don’t Make Waves, and they also had their own TV specials.
At their height, they toured with Frank Sinatra and were reported to have outsold The Beatles in Japan.
Linda left the group in 1983, but later reformed with her sisters for several comeback performances. She also became known for musical theatre, most notably performing the role of Mrs Johnstone in Blood Brothers for three years from 2000.
L-R: Bernie, Denise, Linda (top), Anne and Maureen Nolan pictured in 1975, before youngest sister Coleen joined the group
Four siblings struck by cancer
Linda was first diagnosed with breast cancer in 2006, and underwent a mastectomy to remove her left breast two days before her 47th birthday.
After being given the all-clear in 2011, in 2017 she was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer. Three years later, Linda and Anne together revealed they were being treated for cancer once again.
The sisters were diagnosed with different forms of the disease just days apart after they returned home from filming a series of their show, The Nolans Go Cruising. Linda had cancer of the liver, while Anne had breast cancer.
The star, pictured last year, had battled cancer for several years. Pic: Shutterstock
They went on to write Stronger Together, an account of their journey that included frank details of their treatments and the side effects.
But in 2023, Linda revealed the cancer had spread to her brain and she was beginning treatment as part of a new drug trial.
The Nolans lost their second-youngest sister, Bernie, to cancer in 2013, aged 52.
Loose Women star Coleen Nolan also revealed she was diagnosed with skin cancer last year, and said she was using a chemotherapy cream to remove it.
Linda’s husband of 26 years, Brian Hudson, died in 2007 after being diagnosed with skin cancer.
Anne Nolan is now cancer-free.
Tributes to star ‘who was always a joy’
TV star and singer Cheryl Baker and comedian Tommy Cannon are among those who have paid tribute.
“I’m heartbroken to hear about the passing of Linda Nolan,” Cannon wrote on X. “I had the pleasure of working with her on so many occasions, and she was always a joy – full of warmth and love. My thoughts and love are with the Nolan girls and the whole family.”
“The most incredible voice, the wickedest sense of humour, such a massive talent,” Baker wrote. “You’re with Brian now, Lin.”
Loose Women also sent its love to her family. Linda appeared as a guest panellist on the ITV chat show over the years, alongside her sister Coleen.
The Blackpool Grand Theatre described her as “a true Blackpool icon”.
Two teenagers and a woman have been arrested after a 14-year-old boy was stabbed to death on a bus in southeast London.
Kelyan Bokassa was on the 472 service in Woolwich when he was attacked just before 2.30pm on Tuesday 7 January.
The teenager died at the scene shortly after medical help arrived.
Two boys, aged 15 and 16, were arrested on Wednesday on suspicion of murder, and a 44-year-old woman was arrested on suspicion of assisting an offender.
All three remain in custody, the Metropolitan Police said.
Detective Chief Inspector Sarah Lee said: “While these arrests mark a significant step forward in this investigation, we continue to appeal for anyone with information about Kelyan’s murder to come forward and speak to us.
“I would like to thank officers for working around the clock in order to locate our suspects and praise the Woolwich community for their ongoing support and patience whilst we have carried out our investigation.
“I know that this incident deeply affected you all, and I hope that these two arrests reassure you that we are doing everything to tackle violent offenders across London.”
Anti-knife campaigner Faron Paul speaking during a vigil held for Kelyan last week. Pic: PA
The Metropolitan Police called the stabbing a “horrific attack”, while London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan said the “heartbreaking violence has absolutely no place in our city”.
Kelyan was an aspiring rapper, who was described as having “briefly” been a student at St Columbia’s Catholic Boys School in Bexleyheath.
Following his death, his mother Mary Bokassa described his troubled childhood to journalists.
She said he was taken into care, moved from school to school, and eventually fell into the clutches of criminal gangs.
Read more from Sky News:
Singer and TV personality Linda Nolan dies
Father denies murdering daughter during ‘play-fight’
Met Police officers were called to reports of a stabbing on a Route 472 bus at 2.28pm on 7 January on Woolwich Church Street, near its junction with the A205 South Circular Road.
Paramedics from the London Ambulance Service and London’s Air Ambulance attended the scene.
Police say Kelyan’s family are being supported by specialist officers as the investigation “remains ongoing”.
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