Adam Boulton: Sir Keir Starmer risks complacency by suggesting job all but done after local elections
As daylight broke on the English local election results a week ago, Sir Keir Starmer popped up in the Kent council district of Medway – which Labour had just captured from the Conservatives – to declare that Labour is “on course for a majority government”.
He stuck to his line doggedly this week under tough, evidence-based questioning from Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby.
A Labour majority government after the next election would be a big deal for the United Kingdom.
It would be the first switch in direction, from rightward to leftward, for 14 years – after four consecutive general election defeats for Labour.
So was Sir Keir right? Is Labour on course for a majority victory? Was his bold claim good campaigning? What should Labour do between now and then to make it come true?
Another majority victory would be a stunning achievement for Labour in this Conservative-leaning country, in which the Tory Party have enjoyed the lion’s share of government over the last two centuries.
Of the five Labour prime ministers since 1945 – there have been 12 Conservative PMs in that time – only Clement Attlee and Tony Blair scored knockout victories at the first time of asking.
Harold Wilson, Labour’s only other election winner, took two general elections close together each time in the 1960s and 1970s to consolidate his position.
Two of Britain’s best-known election analysts share a similar verdict after going through the local election statistics: very bad for the Conservatives, good but not there yet for Labour and promising, for lower stakes, for the Liberal Democrats and Greens.
Sir Keir joins party members in Chatham, Kent, where Labour has taken overall control of Medway Council for the first time since 1998 after winning 30 of its 59 seats.
On the basis of last week’s vote neither guru points to Labour enjoying a parliamentary majority of 326 MPs or more.
For Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher of Oxford’s Nuffield Politics Research Centre puts general election equivalent vote shares at Labour 36%, Conservatives 29%, Liberal Democrats 18% and others 17%.
Sir John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, marked both main parties down slightly on the BBC: Labour 35%, Conservatives 26%, Liberal Democrats 20%, others 19%.
For reference, shares at the last general election in 2019 were roughly Labour 32%, Conservative 44%, Liberal Democrat 12% others 12%).
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This is how the local election unfolded
What would political picture look like if last week’s local vote had been a general election?
Had last Thursday been a general election, Professor Thrasher projects that Labour would have had 298 MPs (+95), with the Tories on 238 (-127), Liberal Democrats 39 (+28) and others (including the Scottish National Party) 75.
Sir Keir would either have found himself the leader of a minority government, dependent on passive endorsement from other parties, or in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
There is one analysis which is more hopeful for Labour. Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at Trinity College, Oxford, says “Starmer might be right”.
Plymouth City Council leader Tudor Evans takes a selfie with (left to right) shadow levelling Up, housing and communities secretary Lisa Nandy, Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner
It should be said that any projections for the whole UK from last week’s elections are fiendishly difficult. Last week was the biggest test of voter opinion before the next general election but it only involved some councils in parts of England, and none in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or London.
Electoral geography is changing
Rather than work on the basis of uniform swings across the country, Professor Fisher delves into detailed voting patterns in types of constituencies. He argues that the electoral geography is changing.
The swing to Labour is bigger in seats where it is the challenger to the Tories, he says, and the Brexit dividend is dwindling, which should mean an extra 15 MPs for Labour above the national trend.
Opinion polls also suggest Labour should pick up 11 seats in Scotland. “That would give Labour a majority of 32,” he writes in Prospect Magazine.
Maybe. Veterans of the three New Labour victories point out that “Tony” never took winning for granted and indeed prepared elaborately for talks with the Liberal Democrats, had he fallen short in what turned out to be the Labour landslide win in 1997.
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Explained: How can Sir Keir Starmer get No 10 keys without a majority?
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Starmer hails ‘amazing results’
Perhaps Sir Keir simply wanted to thank his supporters by cheering them up. Unfortunately he was also in danger of looking complacent by suggesting the job was all but done.
Why campaign harder in the months until the next general election if it is a done deal? If you are not sure, why bother to make a tactical switch to Labour, if their boss says he’s going to win anyway?
If Labour ends up the biggest party in a hung parliament, Sir Keir will be a failure in his own terms, having weakened his own hand for any talks with other parties.
Rishi Sunak gave a hint of the direction he thinks the contest is really moving at Prime Minister’s Questions when he rebuffed Sir Keir’s buoyant mood with a quotation from Tony Blair: “The right honourable gentleman can be as cocky as he likes about the local elections; come a general election, policy counts.”
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Beth Rigby analyses PMQs
When Mr Blair said that, in May 2007, the party roles were reversed.
Blair was prime minister, David Cameron the leader of the opposition. Mr Blair would hand over to Gordon Brown a few weeks later. Labour had just lost 900 seats in council elections. Mr Blair added: “On policy we win, he loses”. He was not proved right when the election came around in 2010.
But parliament was hung with Mr Cameron on 306 MPs, 20 short of a majority. Mr Sunak or his researchers clearly see an analogy and are working to limit the extent of the damage to their party.
Sir Keir on course for an underwhelming success
Voters seem to agree that Sir Keir is on course for an underwhelming success. In a YouGov poll this week, 22% thought Labour would have a narrow overall majority while 17% expected it to be the largest party in a hung parliament.
Just 11% are waiting for a big Labour victory. Only a third of those surveyed gave the Conservatives any chance of forming the next government.
A YouGov/TimesRadio poll asking 2019 Conservative voters their top reason for switching to Labour found 30% think the Conservatives are doing a bad job; 15% feel a need for change; 11% no longer trust the Tories.
The overwhelming motivations are negativity about the Conservatives rather than positivity towards Labour or its leadership.
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‘A disappointing night overall’ for the Conservatives
In these circumstances Labour strategists see little need to strengthen their party’s policy offering now. They point out that Mr Blair kept back his five pledges card, including the no tax rise guarantee, until weeks before polling day while the biggest economic initiative – Bank of England independence – was kept under wraps until Mr Blair and Mr Brown were safely in Downing Street.
Sir Keir and Mr Sunak have each unveiled pallid five pledge lists of their own. But continuing economic difficulties are already discrediting their cautiously caveated offers.
Labour’s best-defined pledges are economic raids on soft targets such private schools, oil companies and big business. Sir Keir is devoting much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth. Repetition of these lines may perhaps bring over new voters.
Sir Keir has devoted much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth.
After canvassing recently in prosperous “safe Tory” constituencies, some veteran door-knockers are inclined to agree with Sir Keir and Professor Fisher that the mood of the voters has changed irrevocably against the Conservatives.
The Tories will be defeated heavily by Labour when ever the election comes, they fear, even at the latest date in 18 months’ time.
A more dispassionate analysis is that the Labour Party need to make 139 gains for a Fisher-style victory. They have only done that three times in history.
“You’d have to ask yourself ‘is that the zeitgeist of 1924?” wonders Professor Thrasher.
In 1929 Labour fielded candidates across the board for the first time. 1945 witnessed “the days of hope” when Attlee turned out the wartime leader Churchill. In 1997 the Tories were sleaze-ridden and divided, while Labour united behind the charismatic leadership of Mr Blair.
Is Britain “on course” for another epochal election? The evidence is mixed so far.
UK
Police admit failures in Harry Dunn case after report finds officers prioritised suspect’s welfare
Northamptonshire Police has admitted it failed Harry Dunn and his family after a report found officers prioritised the welfare of the suspect in the case over the investigation.
The 19-year-old died in 2019 after US state department employee Anne Sacoolas – who was driving a car on the wrong side of the road – hit his motorbike near RAF Croughton in Northamptonshire.
However, Sacoolas was not immediately arrested following the crash and was able to flee the country, claiming diplomatic immunity, because police did not believe a “necessity test” had been met.
An independent report, published on Wednesday, has now criticised the force’s senior leadership for their handling of the case – including describing its former chief constable as having a “detrimental” impact.
Harry Dunn’s mother Charlotte Charles said she welcomed the findings.
She told Sky News: “Unfortunately, we were treated extremely poorly. All the authorities wanted to shut us down…
“This report does validate everything, of the way we felt and everything that we’ve been put through. To be treated as we were, as the victims of a serious crime, we were let down really, really badly.”
Following a long fight for justice by Mr Dunn’s family, Sacoolas eventually pleaded guilty to causing death by careless driving via video link at the Old Bailey in December 2022.
She later received an eight-month prison sentence, suspended for 12 months.
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From 2022: Anne Sacoolas pleads guilty
Following the report, Assistant Chief Constable Emma James said in a statement: “On behalf of Northamptonshire Police, I want to apologise to Harry’s family for what is now clear was a failure on our part to do the very best for the victim in this case, Harry, and his family who fought tirelessly in the years that followed to achieve justice for him.
“The picture which emerges is one of a force which has failed the family on a number of fronts”.
She also added: “It was vitally important that Northamptonshire Police conducted this review into the most high-profile case in the force’s history, a case where clear and significant shortcomings have now been properly and independently unearthed.”
Assistant Chief Constable Emma James
The report, which has 38 recommendations, found that Nick Adderley, who was sacked as head of the force last year after lying about his military record, had caused a breakdown in relations with Mr Dunn’s family.
It also revealed that his “erroneous statements” about Sacoolas’s immunity status led the Foreign Office to contact the force asking him not to repeat them.
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Danielle Stone, the Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner for Northamptonshire, said Mr Adderley’s behaviour was “unfathomable”.
She added that the report “makes really clear his culpability.”
Danielle Stone said Mr Adderley’s behaviour was “unfathomable”
The report also said Northamptonshire Police potentially had a culture of not arresting suspects “in circumstances such as these, which could lead to evidence not being obtained”. It recommended that the force adopt an “investigative mindset” over serious road crashes.
Regarding the decision not to arrest Sacoolas, the report said the decision had not been “explained in enough detail”. It added: “The overriding factor in the decision appears to be the welfare of the suspect and her suffering from shock, with little to no consideration around the full necessity test under the Police and Criminal Evidence Act.
“A prompt and effective investigation was not considered or articulated. The view is that in these circumstances the suspect could and should have been arrested to assist the evidence-gathering process.”
The report continued: “The duty (police sergeant) made the decision not to arrest.
“The rationale was largely based on a belief that the necessity test was not met, and information received that Anne Sacoolas was in shock.
“Whilst the welfare of any person is a concern for officers, this should not have prevented the arrest of Anne Sacoolas.”
Ms Charles, who was recently honoured with an MBE after her campaigning efforts led to road safety improvements near US airbases, said: “I don’t think you’re ever done grieving. There’s never any closure to losing a child. You live with it, it’s so profound.
“So the only thing I would ever say to anybody else who feels that they’ve got a fight ahead of them, dig deep, do your best, because you just never know the resilience that you’ve got until you absolutely have to find it.”
Plans for cuts to benefits which will impact more than three million households will be published today – as the government faces a battle to convince dozens of Labour MPs to back them.
Liz Kendall, the welfare secretary, has set out proposals to cut £5bn from the welfare budget – which she has said is “unsustainable” and “trapping people in welfare dependency”.
Disabled people claiming PIP, the personal independence payment which helps people – some of them working – with the increased costs of daily living, face having their awards reviewed from the end of next year.
An estimated 800,000 current and future PIP recipients will lose an average of £4,500 a year, according to a government assessment.
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Government’s battle over welfare reforms
The government also intends to freeze the health element of Universal Credit, claimed by more than two million people, at £97 a week during this parliament, and cut the rate to £50 for new claimants.
Under pressure from Labour MPs concerned particularly that changes to PIP will drive families into poverty, Ms Kendall will announce new protections in the bill today.
Sky News understands they include a 13-week transition period for those losing PIP; a higher rate of Universal Credit for people with the most serious conditions; and a commitment that disabled people who take a job will not immediately lose their benefits.
Some 40 Labour MPs have signed a letter refusing to support the cuts; and dozens of others have concerns, including ministers.
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Benefits cuts explained
Ms Kendall is determined to press ahead, and has said the number of new PIP claimants has doubled since 2019 – at 34,000, up from 15,000.
Ministers say 90% of current claimants will not lose their benefits; and that many people will be better off – with the total welfare bill set to continue to rise over this parliament.
To keep the benefit, claimants must score a minimum of four points out of eight on one of the daily living criteria.
Ministers say claimants with the most serious conditions, who cannot work, will not face constant reassessments.
A £1bn programme is proposed, intended to give disabled people who can work tailored support to find jobs.
Some Labour MPs have angrily opposed the reforms – which will be voted on later this month.
Last night in a parliamentary debate, Labour MP for Poole Neil Duncan-Jordan disputed the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) figures.
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He said: “We already know that PIP is an underclaimed benefit. The increase in claims is a symptom of declining public health and increased financial hardship disabled people are facing.
“We have the same proportion of people on working-age benefits as in 2015. This is not an economic necessity, it’s a political choice.”
Liz Kendall
Rachael Maskell, Labour MP for York, called the proposals “devastating “. She said: “We must change direction and not proceed with these cuts.”
Disability groups say they fear an increase in suicides and mental health conditions.
The government’s own assessment forecast an extra 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty – including 50,000 children. It did not include the impact of people moving into work.
Ms Kendall was urged by MPs on the Commons Work and Pensions committee to delay the reforms, to carry out an impact assessment, but wrote back to the committee saying the reforms were too urgent to delay – and that MPs would be able to amend the legislation.
The grieving mother of a Scottish teen who vanished for a month has told Sky News she believes a “third party” was involved in her son’s death.
Cole Cooper, 19, was discovered dead in woods near Falkirk earlier this month following a missing persons inquiry his relatives don’t believe was taken seriously enough by police.
He was last seen on CCTV in May after leaving a house party, but police later revealed a former school friend had spoken to Cole a few days later nearby.
Speaking exclusively to Sky News, his mum Wendy Stewart, 42, has revealed her son had “various arguments” in the days and hours before he disappeared.
Cole’s mum Wendy (L) and his aunt Aimee
In an emotional interview, she said: “He was only 19, he should never have been taken. I am never going to see him again. I never got a chance to give him a last cuddle and hold his hand.
“Someone has taken that away from me far too soon. Whether it be intentionally or unintentionally, I do believe there has been some involvement by a third party and the result is the death of Cole.”
The family, who organised a local vigil in Cole’s memory last weekend, have vowed to get “justice”.
Asked what that means, Ms Stewart told Sky News: “Finding the culprit and getting justice that way. Finding the person that is responsible for the death of my child.”
Police previously said 400 residents were spoken to during door-to-door enquires and more than 2,000 hours of CCTV footage was collected.
The 19-year-old’s death is being treated as “unexplained”.
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Cole Cooper’s mother Wendy at a vigil in Banknock. Pic: PA
Cole’s aunt Aimee Tennie, 32, revealed the family’s anger over the police handling of the case as they attempt to find out what happened.
She said: “We are aware of small details surrounding the weekend leading up to it with arguments. He had a few arguments over that weekend. We want the details re-examined thoroughly.”
Sky News put all of the family’s concerns and allegations to Police Scotland.
The force swerved our questions and responded saying: “Enquiries remain ongoing.”
Wendy Stewart claimed the probe has been handled “shockingly” with a failure to take her son’s disappearance seriously.
The 42-year-old said: “I have had to scream and shout from rooftops to be heard by the police. I don’t think they have handled it well.
“The police really need to take accountability and listen to families, they are reporting a missing child and understand the family knows their child best.”
Cole Cooper’s loved ones still have not been told when his body will be released to allow them to lay him to rest.
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