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As daylight broke on the English local election results a week ago, Sir Keir Starmer popped up in the Kent council district of Medway – which Labour had just captured from the Conservatives – to declare that Labour is “on course for a majority government”.

He stuck to his line doggedly this week under tough, evidence-based questioning from Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby.

A Labour majority government after the next election would be a big deal for the United Kingdom.

It would be the first switch in direction, from rightward to leftward, for 14 years – after four consecutive general election defeats for Labour.

So was Sir Keir right? Is Labour on course for a majority victory? Was his bold claim good campaigning? What should Labour do between now and then to make it come true?

Another majority victory would be a stunning achievement for Labour in this Conservative-leaning country, in which the Tory Party have enjoyed the lion’s share of government over the last two centuries.

Of the five Labour prime ministers since 1945 – there have been 12 Conservative PMs in that time – only Clement Attlee and Tony Blair scored knockout victories at the first time of asking.

More on Sir Keir Starmer

Harold Wilson, Labour’s only other election winner, took two general elections close together each time in the 1960s and 1970s to consolidate his position.

Two of Britain’s best-known election analysts share a similar verdict after going through the local election statistics: very bad for the Conservatives, good but not there yet for Labour and promising, for lower stakes, for the Liberal Democrats and Greens.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer joins party members in Chatham, Kent, where Labour has taken overall control of Medway Council for the first time since 1998 after winning 30 of its 59 seats. Picture date: Friday May 5, 2023.
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Sir Keir joins party members in Chatham, Kent, where Labour has taken overall control of Medway Council for the first time since 1998 after winning 30 of its 59 seats.

On the basis of last week’s vote neither guru points to Labour enjoying a parliamentary majority of 326 MPs or more.

For Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher of Oxford’s Nuffield Politics Research Centre puts general election equivalent vote shares at Labour 36%, Conservatives 29%, Liberal Democrats 18% and others 17%.

Sir John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, marked both main parties down slightly on the BBC: Labour 35%, Conservatives 26%, Liberal Democrats 20%, others 19%.

For reference, shares at the last general election in 2019 were roughly Labour 32%, Conservative 44%, Liberal Democrat 12% others 12%).

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This is how the local election unfolded

What would political picture look like if last week’s local vote had been a general election?

Had last Thursday been a general election, Professor Thrasher projects that Labour would have had 298 MPs (+95), with the Tories on 238 (-127), Liberal Democrats 39 (+28) and others (including the Scottish National Party) 75.

Sir Keir would either have found himself the leader of a minority government, dependent on passive endorsement from other parties, or in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

There is one analysis which is more hopeful for Labour. Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at Trinity College, Oxford, says “Starmer might be right”.

Plymouth City Council  leader Tudor Evans takes a selfie with (left to right) shadow levelling Up, housing and communities secretary Lisa Nandy,  Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner during a meeting of 22 new local council leaders at the headquarters of the Labour Party in London. Picture date: Tuesday May 9, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Elections Labour. Photo credit should read: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire
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Plymouth City Council leader Tudor Evans takes a selfie with (left to right) shadow levelling Up, housing and communities secretary Lisa Nandy, Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner

It should be said that any projections for the whole UK from last week’s elections are fiendishly difficult. Last week was the biggest test of voter opinion before the next general election but it only involved some councils in parts of England, and none in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or London.

Electoral geography is changing

Rather than work on the basis of uniform swings across the country, Professor Fisher delves into detailed voting patterns in types of constituencies. He argues that the electoral geography is changing.

The swing to Labour is bigger in seats where it is the challenger to the Tories, he says, and the Brexit dividend is dwindling, which should mean an extra 15 MPs for Labour above the national trend.

Opinion polls also suggest Labour should pick up 11 seats in Scotland. “That would give Labour a majority of 32,” he writes in Prospect Magazine.

Maybe. Veterans of the three New Labour victories point out that “Tony” never took winning for granted and indeed prepared elaborately for talks with the Liberal Democrats, had he fallen short in what turned out to be the Labour landslide win in 1997.

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Explained: How can Sir Keir Starmer get No 10 keys without a majority?

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Starmer hails ‘amazing results’

Perhaps Sir Keir simply wanted to thank his supporters by cheering them up. Unfortunately he was also in danger of looking complacent by suggesting the job was all but done.

Why campaign harder in the months until the next general election if it is a done deal? If you are not sure, why bother to make a tactical switch to Labour, if their boss says he’s going to win anyway?

If Labour ends up the biggest party in a hung parliament, Sir Keir will be a failure in his own terms, having weakened his own hand for any talks with other parties.

Rishi Sunak gave a hint of the direction he thinks the contest is really moving at Prime Minister’s Questions when he rebuffed Sir Keir’s buoyant mood with a quotation from Tony Blair: “The right honourable gentleman can be as cocky as he likes about the local elections; come a general election, policy counts.”

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Beth Rigby analyses PMQs

When Mr Blair said that, in May 2007, the party roles were reversed.

Blair was prime minister, David Cameron the leader of the opposition. Mr Blair would hand over to Gordon Brown a few weeks later. Labour had just lost 900 seats in council elections. Mr Blair added: “On policy we win, he loses”. He was not proved right when the election came around in 2010.

But parliament was hung with Mr Cameron on 306 MPs, 20 short of a majority. Mr Sunak or his researchers clearly see an analogy and are working to limit the extent of the damage to their party.

Sir Keir on course for an underwhelming success

Voters seem to agree that Sir Keir is on course for an underwhelming success. In a YouGov poll this week, 22% thought Labour would have a narrow overall majority while 17% expected it to be the largest party in a hung parliament.

Just 11% are waiting for a big Labour victory. Only a third of those surveyed gave the Conservatives any chance of forming the next government.

A YouGov/TimesRadio poll asking 2019 Conservative voters their top reason for switching to Labour found 30% think the Conservatives are doing a bad job; 15% feel a need for change; 11% no longer trust the Tories.

The overwhelming motivations are negativity about the Conservatives rather than positivity towards Labour or its leadership.

Read more:
Analysis: Sir Keir is desperate for a majority but knows he may fall short
Labour drops pledge to scrap tuition fees

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‘A disappointing night overall’ for the Conservatives

In these circumstances Labour strategists see little need to strengthen their party’s policy offering now. They point out that Mr Blair kept back his five pledges card, including the no tax rise guarantee, until weeks before polling day while the biggest economic initiative – Bank of England independence – was kept under wraps until Mr Blair and Mr Brown were safely in Downing Street.

Sir Keir and Mr Sunak have each unveiled pallid five pledge lists of their own. But continuing economic difficulties are already discrediting their cautiously caveated offers.

Labour’s best-defined pledges are economic raids on soft targets such private schools, oil companies and big business. Sir Keir is devoting much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth. Repetition of these lines may perhaps bring over new voters.

Rishi Sunak
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Sir Keir has devoted much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth.

After canvassing recently in prosperous “safe Tory” constituencies, some veteran door-knockers are inclined to agree with Sir Keir and Professor Fisher that the mood of the voters has changed irrevocably against the Conservatives.

The Tories will be defeated heavily by Labour when ever the election comes, they fear, even at the latest date in 18 months’ time.

A more dispassionate analysis is that the Labour Party need to make 139 gains for a Fisher-style victory. They have only done that three times in history.

“You’d have to ask yourself ‘is that the zeitgeist of 1924?” wonders Professor Thrasher.

In 1929 Labour fielded candidates across the board for the first time. 1945 witnessed “the days of hope” when Attlee turned out the wartime leader Churchill. In 1997 the Tories were sleaze-ridden and divided, while Labour united behind the charismatic leadership of Mr Blair.

Is Britain “on course” for another epochal election? The evidence is mixed so far.

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Manchester synagogue attack: Families pay tribute to ‘kind and heroic’ victims – as police arrest three more suspects

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Manchester synagogue attack: Families pay tribute to 'kind and heroic' victims - as police arrest three more suspects

The families of the two victims of the Manchester synagogue attack have paid tribute to them as “heroic, beloved and cherished”.

Adrian Daulby, 53, and Melvin Cravitz, 66, were killed in the attack at Heaton Park synagogue in Crumpsall on Thursday.

Mr Daulby, a member of the congregation, was shot accidentally when police opened fire on attacker Jihad al Shamie.

The synagogue’s rabbi told Sky News it happened as Mr Daulby “was holding the doors to make sure everyone inside stayed safe”.

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Hero held doors closed to keep everyone safe, rabbi says

His family said he was a “hero” and a “lovely down-to-earth man” whose “final act was one of profound courage and he will forever be remembered for his heroic act”.

The family of Mr Cravitz – a security guard at the synagogue who was attending the service – said he would “do anything to help anyone”.

“He was so kind, caring and always wanted to chat and get to know people,” they said.

“He was devoted to his wife, family and loved his food. He will be sorely missed by his wife, family, friends and community.”

Adrian Daulby. Pic: Family handout
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Adrian Daulby. Pic: Family handout

The tributes came as police said three more people – a man and two women – had been arrested on suspicion of terror offences, bringing the total to six.

They also revealed the attacker had been on bail over a suspected rape, but wasn’t on the radar of counter-terror police.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) is investigating the shooting – standard practice when a member of the public is killed.

The investigation would include “whether police may have caused or contributed to the death” of Mr Daulby.

Sir Stephen Watson, the head of Greater Manchester police, confirmed Mr Daulby’s injury appeared to be “a tragic and unforeseen consequence of the urgently required action taken by my officers”.

‘Gentle giant’

Other relatives of Mr Cravitz told Sky News he was a “gentle giant” who “would never harm a fly”.

His cousin, Phil Bentley, said his death was even more tragic as he would never normally be at the synagogue that early.

Melvin Cravitz. Pic: GMP
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Melvin Cravitz. Pic: GMP

Hindi Cohen, a friend and neighbour, said he was a “lovely man” with a good sense of humour, adding: “Our kids loved him. He called himself uncle Melvin to my kids.”

One of Mr Daulby’s neighbours was also emphatic in his praise for a man he lived next door to for 20 years.

Abdul Rahimi called him “one of the best guys I’ve ever seen in my life” and a “very, very good man”, who often bought books and toys for children on their street.

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Synagogue attack victim was a ‘fantastic guy’

Another neighbour, Waqas Hussain, said the pair bonded over a shared love of nature, animals and birds.

He said Mr Daulby was a cancer survivor, who lived alone and started going to the synagogue more after his father died a few years ago.

“Just one of them people… so innocent, so approachable and so pure,” he told Sky News.

He said his friend hadn’t been fasting for health reasons and was debating whether or not to go the synagogue on Thursday.

Increased police patrols are being put in place near synagogues across the country following the atrocity.

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Manchester attacker – what we know

Lammy heckled at vigil

Police in London and Manchester have urged people not to hold planned protests in the cities this weekend so they can keep officers free.

A vigil for the victims was also held in Manchester on Friday – but Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy walked out to shouts of “shame on you” and boos from a few in the crowd.

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Deputy PM heckled at vigil

“Go to Palestine but leave us alone,” one person shouted.

Another protester shouted “my children’s school was closed today – you allowed this to happen.”

Read more:
Ex-minister says father-in-law was at synagogue attack
Attacker’s family condemn ‘heinous act’

Thirty-five-year-old Jihad al Shamie was named as the attacker on Thursday and is believed to be of Syrian descent.

He is understood to have been granted British citizenship when he was around 16, having entered the UK as a young child.

Police shot him dead seven minutes after the first emergency call as they feared he was wearing an explosive device – later identified as a fake.

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Timeline: How terror attack unfolded

Three men also remain in hospital after the attack, with two of them named as Yoni Finlay and Andrew Franks.

One suffered a stab wound, a second was hurt after being hit by a car that al Shamie is said to have driven towards the synagogue, and the third suffered a gunshot wound.

One of the injured victims was working for the Community Security Trust (CST), a charity which provides security to the Jewish community.

Its chief executive, Mark Gardner, said: “One of our CST personnel was seriously injured in yesterday’s terror attack at Heaton Park Synagogue.

“We pray for his continuing recovery and salute the courage of all those who helped stop the terrorist from getting into the shul.”

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What we know about Manchester attacker Jihad al Shamie – as his family condemn ‘heinous act’

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What we know about Manchester attacker Jihad al Shamie -  as his family condemn 'heinous act'

The Manchester synagogue attacker was a British citizen of Syrian descent who came to the UK as a small child and had not previously been on the radar of police or MI5.

Jihad al Shamie, 35, was shot dead by armed officers seven minutes after launching a car and knife attack while wearing what appeared to be a vest with an explosive device, which was later found to be fake.

Manchester attack latest: Police on ‘high alert’ across country

Jihad al Shamie
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Jihad al Shamie

Adrian Daulby, 53, and Melvin Cravitz, 66, were killed after he drove at people outside Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue, in Crumpsall, before stabbing a man.

One of the victims killed in yesterday’s attack was shot mistakenly by officers during their attempts to bring the attacker under control, Greater Manchester Police believe.

Three others remain in hospital with serious injuries.

Three people – two men in their 30s and a woman in her 60s – have been arrested on suspicion of the preparation or commission of acts of terrorism.

More on Manchester Synagogue Attack

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Manchester attacker ‘did not stand out’

But Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said it is “too early” to say if there was a terrorist cell behind the attack on Thursday morning, which took place on Yom Kippur, Judaism’s holiest day.

She said al Shamie, who is of Syrian descent, came to the UK as a “small child” and was naturalised as a British citizen in the mid-2000s.

The home secretary also said he was not known to the security services or police and had not been referred to the government’s Prevent anti-radicalisation scheme.

Asked about the attacker’s name on LBC, which presenter Nick Ferrari translated as “struggle of the Syrian”, she said: “I was very surprised to discover that name myself.

“Actually, as a Muslim, I’ve never heard someone being called Jihad, but it is the name that he was born with – that has always been his name.”

Police presence at a property in Langley Crescent, Prestwich.
Pic: PA
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Police presence at a property in Langley Crescent, Prestwich.
Pic: PA

Al Shamie is believed to have lived in a council house in a quiet cul-de-sac in Langley Crescent, Prestwich, around two miles from the scene.

Videos obtained by Sky News show armed police, with a dog and a chainsaw, raiding the address at around 3.30pm on Thursday.

Read more:
Synagogue terror victims named
How the attack unfolded
Worshippers leaving synagogue hear news of attack

In a post on Facebook, apparently from his family, his relatives said the attack “has been a profound shock to us”.

“The al Shamie family in the UK and abroad strongly condemns this heinous act, which targeted peaceful, innocent civilians,” they said.

“We fully distance ourselves from this attack and express our deep shock and sorrow over what has happened.

“Our hearts and thoughts are with the victims and their families, and we pray for their strength and comfort.”

Seen lifting weights

One of al Shamie’s neighbours said: “We used to see him out in the garden working out, doing weights, press-ups.

“He used to change his clothes. One day he would be wearing the full gown, to the floor and the next jeans and pyjama bottoms.”

Geoff Haliwell, 72, told Sky News the property used to be on his window cleaning round and he believed the al Shamie family, including his mother, father and brothers, had lived there for around 20 years.

“There’s no way I could’ve thought they were in any way involved in anything like this,” he said, describing the family as “nice people”.

He said he had also seen Jihad al Shamie use benches to work out and said he would sometimes wear western clothes and at other times “traditional” Syrian dress, but showed no signs of radicalisation.

“[He was a] smashing lad to talk to, just the same as everyone else. He didn’t stand out in any way,” he added.

Another neighbour, Kate McLeish, said she thought al Shamie was “an odd guy” and said he used to park his battered black Kia “quite badly on the road”.

The Syrian British Consortium, an organisation representing Syrians in the UK, said no one in its community networks has been able to identify him or confirm knowing him personally.

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Grandparents of Ethan Ives-Griffiths jailed for two-year-old’s murder

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Grandparents of Ethan Ives-Griffiths jailed for two-year-old's murder

A couple who murdered their two-year-old grandson have been jailed for life.

Michael Ives, 47, and Kerry Ives, 46, were found guilty of his murder and cruelty to a child in July after a trial at Mold Crown Court.

They were jailed for minimum terms of 23 years and 17 years respectively.

Their grandson Ethan Ives-Griffiths was dangerously dehydrated, severely underweight and had 40 visible bruises or marks when he collapsed with a catastrophic head injury at his grandparents’ home in Flintshire, North Wales, on 14 August 2021.

Kerry and Michael Ives were found guilty of Ethan's murder. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Kerry and Michael Ives were found guilty of Ethan’s murder. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Ethan’s mother, Shannon Ives, 28, who had been staying with her son at her parents’ home, was found guilty of causing or allowing his death and child cruelty.

Ethan's mother Shannon Ives. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Ethan’s mother Shannon Ives. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

The court heard Ethan was made to stand with his hands on his head as a punishment when he misbehaved.

CCTV footage shown to jurors during the trial showed Michael Ives carrying his grandson by the top of his arm in a way described by prosecutor Caroline Rees KC “as though Ethan was just a bag of rubbish to be slung out”.

The video, taken from the back garden of the family’s four-bedroom home, showed Ethan appearing unsteady on a trampoline, or lying down, while other children bounced.

Michael Ives carrying Ethan outside the family home in Garden City, Deeside, Flintshire. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Michael Ives carrying Ethan outside the family home in Garden City, Deeside, Flintshire. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Michael Ives carrying Ethan in the back garden. Pic: North Wales Police
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Michael Ives carrying Ethan in the back garden. Pic: North Wales Police

Michael Ives was seen to point a garden hose at him, placed the toddler’s hands on his head, and gestured to another child to punch him.

After watching the video in court, Michael Ives said he felt “ashamed” and admitted being cruel and neglectful but denied mistreating Ethan in other ways.

He said his daughter was “quick-tempered” and would slap Ethan a couple of times a day, but Shannon Ives claimed her parents were “horrible” and abused her as a child.

Ethan Ives-Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Ethan Ives-Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Michael and Kerry Ives, originally from Wolverhampton, were in the living room with Ethan at the time of his collapse while his mother was on the phone upstairs.

The pair told the jury “nothing” had happened to the toddler before he fainted as they watched television.

Kerry Ives said she immediately called her daughter to come downstairs, but the court heard it was 18 minutes before she called emergency services.

Ethan was taken to the Countess of Chester Hospital and later transferred to Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool, where he died two days later.

Michael Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Michael Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Kerry Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Kerry Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

He was found to have abdominal injuries likely to have been caused by blows in the days before his collapse, as well as bruises consistent with grip marks on his leg and face.

Experts said Ethan would have died of dehydration within days had he not suffered the head injury, and at the time of his death weighed just 10kg.

Ethan’s fatal head injury was said to have been caused by deliberate force or shaking, and occurred at the time, or in the minutes before, he collapsed.

Ethan with his father Will Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Ethan with his father Will Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Following the verdicts, Ethan’s father Will Griffiths said: “He will be remembered for the smiley, outgoing, loving child that he was. He can now rest in peace, knowing that justice has been served.”

Child protection register

The court heard the youngster had been placed on the child protection register, requiring him to be seen every 10 days.

But when Shannon Ives last saw her social worker, on 5 August 2021, she spoke to him on the doorstep and told him Ethan was having a nap.

No one answered the door when social worker Michael Cornish went to visit in the days before Ethan’s death and a scheduled appointment with a health visitor on 13 August was cancelled.

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