Who’s QB1? Breaking down the biggest battles at the game’s most important position
Last year at this time, it was easy for Nick Saban, Ryan Day and Kirby Smart.
Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Georgia’s Stetson Bennett were coming off monster seasons that included a Heisman for Young and a national title for Bennett.
No QB controversies to be found for the top three teams in the 2022 preseason AP poll.
Now all three programs are entering the unknown.
What’s the latest with the Crimson Tide after bringing in Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner? Is there any clarity for the Buckeyes or Bulldogs? And what about crowded rooms at Texas, Ole Miss and beyond?
We break down the eight most important quarterback battles to see where things stand following spring practice.
QB contenders: Tyler Buchner, Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Tyler Buchner
How the spring affected the race: The fact Alabama brought in Buchner from Notre Dame less than a week after the A-Day spring game tells you the Crimson Tide weren’t content with what they saw from their quarterbacks during spring practice. Now, that doesn’t mean they’re ready to give up on Milroe or Simpson. It just means they wanted another option as they point toward the start of preseason practice in August. Milroe is a dynamic athlete who can give defenses fits running the ball when the play breaks down. His challenge remains cutting down on his turnovers and overall consistency throwing the ball. Simpson also is plenty talented and might end up being the guy, but he just didn’t look ready to lead a football team this spring. So when Buchner hit the transfer portal, given his ties to his former coach at Notre Dame and first-year Alabama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, the Crimson Tide didn’t hesitate to scoop him up and reunite him with Rees.
Long-term outlook: It’s difficult to believe Buchner would come to Alabama to be a backup. He has three years of eligibility remaining and began last season as the Notre Dame starter before injuring his shoulder in Week 2 and having surgery. He returned for the bowl game and accounted for five touchdowns in a Notre Dame win. Alabama offered Buchner when he was in high school, but he opted for Notre Dame. It says a lot about both Milroe and Simpson and their belief in themselves that they didn’t transfer after Buchner came aboard. Milroe and Simpson, who have combined for 65 college passing attempts, are determined to stay and fight for the starting job. Alabama also has two more scholarship quarterbacks on the roster, freshmen Dylan Lonergan and Eli Holstein. We know this about Nick Saban: He’s going to play the best guy and the guy who wins over the locker room. Buchner’s stats at Notre Dame weren’t eye-popping, but clearly Rees thinks he’s an upgrade over what the Alabama coaches saw this spring. We’re going to find out. — Chris Low
QB contenders: Graham Mertz, Jack Miller III
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Graham Mertz
How the spring affected the race: It is probably fair to say the spring did not really affect the race much, as Mertz and Miller remain in a quarterback competition headed into fall practice. While we list Mertz as the favorite, based on his experience as a starter at Wisconsin, there is still plenty of work to be done for him to win the job. Especially after neither quarterback impressed in what was the lowest-scoring spring game in Florida history, with 17 total points scored. Mertz went 18-for-29 for 244 yards and a touchdown, while Miller was 10-for-20 for 144 yards and a touchdown as both took turns with the first-team offense. Coach Billy Napier has also said the team will be active in the transfer portal to find another quarterback, so this competition might not even look the same come August.
Long-term outlook: There is no question losing five-star prospect Jaden Rashada, who left after an NIL deal reportedly fell through, has hampered the plan at quarterback. Rashada was supposed to be the future at the position, after Anthony Richardson left school to enter the NFL draft. His signing was hailed as a huge victory for Napier, until it became somewhat of an embarrassment. Now the long-term outlook must be adjusted. The Gators do not have much depth between Mertz, Miller and redshirt freshman Max Brown, which only puts more pressure on the staff to find somebody currently in the portal. Mertz has started 32 games but was never meant to be the long-term answer when he signed; Miller did not play well in the Las Vegas Bowl, and Brown threw only four passes in the spring game. If there is any good news, it’s that Florida already has a huge commitment from five-star QB D.J. Lagway in the class of 2024. Now the Gators just have to hold on to him. — Andrea Adelson
QB contenders: Carson Beck, Brock Vandagriff
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Carson Beck
How the spring affected the race: Not much, if at all. Kirby Smart talked about Georgia’s ability to give their quarterbacks more reps than anyone in the country, because they almost always have a third unit and sometimes even a fourth. Beck is the quarterback with the most reps given he has been around the longest, and after an impressive performance in the spring game, he looked the part. Smart said, “I was really pleased with all three quarterbacks and what you saw today was some of what we’ve seen all spring. We have three good quarterbacks who can make the throws and do a really good job. I was pleased with those guys.” It should be noted Smart also went out of his way to mention Vandagriff had some passes that were dropped.
Long-term outlook: It’s safe to say Beck is going to be the first to get a shot as the starting quarterback. However, if he were to struggle, Georgia’s schedule allows the Bulldogs to experiment and figure out who really is the best fit for the offense. Georgia’s first four games are at home, against UT-Martin, Ball State, South Carolina and UAB. Smart hasn’t been afraid to switch things up at quarterback when they haven’t worked in the past, so I don’t think people should expect this season to be any different, especially with Georgia feeling like they can get a third consecutive title. — Harry Lyles Jr.
QB contenders: Kyle McCord, Devin Brown
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Kyle McCord
How the spring affected the race: Both quarterbacks shared first-team reps, but there wasn’t enough separation to name a starter. Brown missed the spring game after undergoing a procedure on a finger on his throwing hand. In his absence, McCord had a rather pedestrian performance, completing 18-of-34 passes for 184 yards and one touchdown. Some of that was a product of a limited wide receivers group and inconsistent offensive line. It’s McCord’s third season in the offense, and he has an edge in experience. Coach Ryan Day told ESPN this spring that McCord “understands how defenses are trying to attack them,” has changed his body this offseason and has a strong, accurate arm. Day said while Brown hasn’t had as much time in the offense, he has learned quickly. “I’ve been very impressed with the amount of information he’s been able to process in a short period of time,” Day said. “Very good athlete, can move and change direction very well.”
Long-term outlook: Ohio State had a hole to fill after Dylan Raiola, the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2024 class, decommitted in December, but last month the Buckeyes lured in quarterback Air Noland for the 2024 season. Noland, a 6-foot-3 pocket passer from Fairburn, Georgia, had interest from Alabama, Arkansas, Clemson, Miami, Oregon and Texas A&M. As a junior, Noland had 4,095 yards passing with 55 touchdowns to four interceptions. He also rushed for 156 yards and five touchdowns. Ohio State also has three-star quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who flipped from Washington and committed in 2023. — Heather Dinich
QB contenders: Jaxson Dart, Spencer Sanders, Walker Howard
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Jaxson Dart
How the spring affected the race: The Ole Miss coaches couldn’t have been happier with Dart and the way he performed this spring. In some ways, bringing in Sanders and Howard might have lit a fire under him, as he clearly took it to the next level with his decision-making and consistency in leading the offense on scoring drives. Dart, who started 12 of 13 games last season after transferring from USC, had only one turnover all spring. Sanders was limited by a shoulder injury but made up ground as he became healthier. He saved his best for last and was the Rebels’ most impressive quarterback in the spring game. Sanders, who accounted for 85 career touchdowns at Oklahoma State in four years as a starter, is a perfect fit for what Ole Miss does in its quarterback run game. Howard, a former 5-star recruit at LSU, showcased his ability to throw the deep ball and generated a lot of explosive plays, but he also turned the ball over and is still probably a year away from being a serious candidate for the starting job.
Long-term outlook: Dart was good enough (and consistent enough) in the spring that it’s going to be difficult for anyone to unseat him. What he did better than anybody was get the ball into the end zone, and that’s the ultimate measure of a quarterback. But to say Sanders, especially with all of his experience and athleticism, is too far behind to catch Dart would be premature. And who’s to say both quarterbacks won’t contribute in some form or fashion in 2023? Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has been adamant that he’s going to build the most talented roster he can, and he knows as well as anyone you can never have enough good quarterbacks. Ole Miss goes so fast on offense it helps to have as many reps as possible in that system. For Dart, everything seemed to slow down this spring, and his footwork, timing and rhythm were all improved. Ole Miss doesn’t have to name a starter until more than three months from now. But if that decision had to be made today, it would be Dart. — Low
QB contenders: Joe Milton III, Nico Iamaleava
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Joe Milton III
How the spring affected the race: It was Milton’s job to lose, especially given the way he played when he filled in at the end of last season for the injured Hendon Hooker. Milton was excellent against a talented Clemson defense in Tennessee’s 31-14 Orange Bowl win over the Tigers, and he built on that success this spring. The best news for the Vols is they had an ultratalented freshman pushing Milton all spring in Iamaleava, who arrived in December and went through the bowl practices. There’s a ton of hype surrounding Iamaleava, who has elite arm talent, but Tennessee coach Josh Heupel was impressed with the way Iamaleava came to practice every day determined to get better, never showed any entitlement and soaked up everything he could from Milton. During the early part of his Tennessee career, Milton was prone to overthrowing receivers and getting too amped. He showed this spring he’s capable of playing within the system, making big plays and being a team leader.
Long-term outlook: Heupel and the entire offensive staff are excited to see Milton operate now that he knows (and the team knows) that he’s clearly the man at quarterback. Milton beat out Hooker as the starter when he transferred from Michigan, but it became clear a few games into the 2021 season that Hooker was the better quarterback. Milton knows the 2023 season is his chance to make the kind of jump that Hooker did, and at 6-5, 242 pounds and with an arm that’s one of the strongest in college football, Milton has the tools to blossom into one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He will also be valuable in short-yardage situations with his ability to run but consistency will be the key. He has to prove he can do it over the course of the entire season, and all the while, the Vols know they have their quarterback of the future ready (Iamaleava) if Milton stumbles or experiences injury problems. — Low
QB contenders: Quinn Ewers, Maalik Murphy, Arch Manning
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Quinn Ewers
How the spring affected the race: Sophomore Ewers was the favorite after making 10 starts last season, and nothing this spring put any wrinkles into that plan. At the beginning of the spring, with Murphy being held back with a leg injury, much attention was on Manning, the star freshman. Coach Steve Sarkisian said he would give Manning every opportunity to battle for the job and didn’t want to put limits on him. But by the time the spring game rolled around, Ewers (16-for-23, 195 yards, TD) was a solid No. 1, redshirt freshman Murphy (9-for-13, 165 yards, TD) put on show of his own in his first appearance in front of Texas fans, and Manning, who played with freshmen and backups, went 5-for-13 for 30 yards. “I think it’s pretty clear to say that Quinn’s our starting quarterback and we feel very good about that,” Sarkisian said after the game.
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Arch Manning receives ovation, throws 1st completion in Texas spring game
Arch Manning receives a loud ovation from the Texas fans, then throws a completion in his first pass attempt during the Longhorns’ spring game.
Long-term outlook: Ewers said he wasn’t where he wanted to be last year, when he ranked 53rd nationally in QBR (64.3), but he will helm a reloaded Texas offense that has a strong supporting cast at wide receiver and tight end. Sarkisian is enamored with Murphy’s arm strength and ability to make all the throws. He has a good problem, with three potential starting quarterbacks in his room, but it could prove to be a challenge to keep all of them in Austin. After redshirting in 2021 at Ohio State before transferring to Texas, Ewers could depart for the NFL with a strong season. The Mannings, meanwhile, knew the transition from a private school to Austin would not be an easy one, so the idea of a redshirt has never been out of the question, which is a luxury for both Manning and the Longhorns. “He’s on the right trajectory he should be on,” Sarkisian told Dallas radio station 105.3 The Fan about Manning after spring practice. “He’s a true freshman in college. He really should still be in high school. He just finished his first semester on the Forty Acres, so there’s a definite transition there. … There’s a lot of room for him to grow this summer. Ultimately, it’s a great room that we have.” — Dave Wilson
QB contenders: Dante Moore, Ethan Garbers, Collin Schlee, Justyn Martin, Chase Griffin
Post-spring Week 1 favorite: Dante Moore
How the spring affected the race: Some separation was created. While the quarterback battle in Westwood appeared to be particularly crowded after the departure of longtime Chip Kelly stalwart Dorian Thompson-Robinson, spring showed that Moore, Garbers and Schlee are the three who are truly fighting for the job. Moore was the most impressive of the bunch, which is no surprise given his five-star rating, but does complicate things given he’s the least experienced of the trio. Garbers has shown himself to be plenty capable in limited play during the past two years and that continued this spring. Schlee, meanwhile, is the wild card. The senior arrives by way of Kent State, and while there were likely no promises made to him about a starting role, there had to have been at least an expectation that he was the favorite. After spring camp, however, it’s a three-person race.
Long-term outlook: This is a true pick-your-poison situation for Kelly, who does not appear to be in a hurry to make a decision. Garbers is the longtime backup who is familiar with the system but whose ceiling isn’t exactly soaring. Schlee is the incoming transfer who combines both talent with experience and should be good enough to keep UCLA afloat should Kelly hand him the ball. Moore, meanwhile, is the potential superstar who has already shown in spring that he is not going to settle for being second fiddle. Kelly knows Moore will be the starter sooner or later. The question is: Can he bring himself to go bold and let the true freshman start from the first snap of the season? Or will he play it safe, start Garbers or Schlee, and then eventually turn to Moore when in need of a spark? — Paolo Uggetti
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
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