Who wins Stars vs. Kraken? Predictions, X factors for Game 7
A berth in the NHL’s Western Conference finals is on the line Monday night, as the Dallas Stars host the Seattle Kraken in Game 7 of their second-round series (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The series has been quite a back-and-forth affair, as the teams split the first four contests then the Stars went ahead 3-2, before the Kraken roared back with a 6-3 win on home ice in Game 6.
Who will win the pivotal showdown? And which players from each team will have the biggest impact on the result? Our NHL reporters check in:
Who will be the key player for Seattle?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: There won’t be just one. There will be several, because that is how that team has operated. For all the reasons you can say it will be Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn, Yanni Gourde or Philipp Grubauer, it could end up being Adam Larsson, Eeli Tolvanen or Justin Schultz instead.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Grubauer will need to be his very best self against a Dallas offense that’s bound to press hard from the onset. The Stars are too well coached and experienced to allow themselves to be outshot in the first period for a third straight game, while Jake Oettinger has yet to lose two in a row this postseason. Seattle’s netminder will have to be the better of the two for his side to hold any hope of moving on. A big ask, all considered.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Grubauer. Seattle isn’t a star-driven team. The Kraken will need a star turn from their goaltender in Game 7. Grubauer is 3-3 with an .865 save percentage and a 3.78 goals against average in this series. Dallas watched the Kraken knock Oettinger out of Game 6. Goaltending has never been more pivotal in this matchup than it is now, and Grubauer has to be at his best and deliver a performance worthy of the moment.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: I know the Kraken have owned the no superstars, just a different hero every night corner during the Stanley Cup playoffs. That said, Jordan Eberle has been an individual force in this series. The winger has eight points in six games, including a three-point night in Game 6 to help push the Stars to the brink. He is the Kraken’s leading scorer in the series — with the playoff beard to match — and is an exemplary veteran linemate for rookies Beniers and Tye Kartye. Eberle was clutch for the New York Islanders in the playoffs, and he has been the same for Seattle.
Who will be the key player for Dallas?
Clark: It’s a toss-up between Roope Hintz and Jake Oettinger. We’ll go with Hintz for this reason: He did not get a point in Game 6, which was monumental because of how much he drives play. There’s a reason he is tied for second in points this postseason, with 18.
Matiash: Captain Jamie Benn and his 3-1 record in Game 7s will set the tone in the dressing room and on the ice for the Stars. Before failing to register a point in Game 6, the veteran leader contributed at least an assist in all previous playoff meetings with Seattle. By getting back on the scoring track — and contributing in all other facets of the game — he’ll serve as one key difference-maker for Dallas in this crucial tilt.
Shilton: Joe Pavelski. He has scored 10 points in eight playoff games so far. And no one will be more motivated than Pavelski to get Dallas onto the next round. He is a veteran who has been chasing the Stanley Cup dream his entire career, and opportunities like the one Dallas has now don’t come often. Look for Pavelski to do everything in his power to get the Stars over the line.
Wyshynski: Jake Oettinger, full stop. There’s a stat many Stars fans can quote like scripture ahead of Game 7: Since the end of last season’s playoffs, Oettinger is a remarkable 23-2-3 after a loss this season. That includes a 4-0 mark in the playoffs. When Pete DeBoer pulled him in Game 6, the coach said he was “looking down the road to make sure Jake’s got energy.” In other words, it wasn’t so much trying to goose a flat team as making sure Oettinger was rested and ready for his next bounce-back game.
What is your final score prediction
Clark: Look at the two items that have guided this series: Which team can be aggressive early, and which one can explode for the big period. Whoever can do one of those two things, if not both, will win this game. Let’s say the Kraken win 5-3 (with the realization the Stars could do the same).
Matiash: Veteran leadership and experience give the Stars — who haven’t lost two in a row this postseason — the edge in this one. Dallas takes it 6-3 over the Kraken, who have every right to hold their heads high in what’s been an impressive run in the second season of the franchise.
Shilton: It feels like this will be a high-scoring affair. Maybe not defense-optional, exactly. But after the way Game 6 played out, and knowing there’s nothing left to hold back for, I expect both sides to be assertive offensively and fire everything on net. I’m anticipating plenty of chances off the rush and a good deal of back and forth. Going with Dallas over Seattle 5-4.
Wyshynski: Dallas wins 4-2. Even with a stronger Oettinger outing, the Kraken don’t go down without a fight. But the underlying numbers tell us that Dallas should have probably put this series to bed already; the Stars’ underlying numbers defensively at 5-on-5 over the past two games have been stellar, and they should get the saves from Oettinger in Game 7. That plus the combination of the home crowd and the Stars’ desperation should be enough to advance Dallas to the conference finals.
Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is a National League All-Star replacement, giving the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander a chance to break Paul Skenes‘ record for the fewest big league appearances before playing in the Midsummer Classic.
Misiorowski was named Friday night to replace Chicago Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, who will be unavailable for the All-Star Game on Tuesday night in Atlanta because he is scheduled to start Saturday at the New York Yankees.
The 23-year-old Misiorowski has made just five starts for the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA while averaging 99.3 mph on his fastball, with 89 pitches that have reached 100 mph.
If he pitches at Truist Park, Misiorowski will make it consecutive years for a player to set the mark for fewest big league games before an All-Star showing.
Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander getting ready for his second All-Star appearance, had made 11 starts in the majors when he was chosen as the NL starter for last year’s All-Star Game at Texas. He pitched a scoreless inning.
“I’m speechless,” said a teary-eyed Misiorowski, who said he was given the news a few minutes before the Brewers’ 8-3 victory over Washington. “It’s awesome. It’s very unexpected and it’s an honor.”
Misiorowski is the 30th first-time All-Star and 16th replacement this year. There are now 80 total All-Stars.
“He’s impressive. He’s got some of the best stuff in the game right now, even though he’s a young pitcher,” said Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is a starting AL outfielder for his seventh All-Star nod. “He’s going to be a special pitcher in this game for a long time so I think he deserved it and it’s going be pretty cool for him and his family.”
Carlos Rodón, Carlos Estévez and Casey Mize were named replacement pitchers on the AL roster.
The New York Yankees‘ Rodón, an All-Star for the third time in five seasons, will replace teammate Max Fried for Tuesday’s game in Atlanta. Fried will be unavailable because he is scheduled to start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs.
In his final start before the All-Star game, Rodón allowed four hits and struck out eight in eight innings in an 11-0 victory over the Cubs.
“This one’s a little special for me,” said Rodón, an All-Star in 2021 and ’22 who was 3-8 in his first season with the Yankees two years ago before rebounding. “I wasn’t good when I first got here, and I just wanted to prove that I wasn’t to going to give up and just put my best foot forward and try to win as many games as I can.”
The Kansas City Royals‘ Estévez replaces Texas’ Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to start at Houston on Saturday night. Estévez was a 2023 All-Star when he was with the Los Angeles Angels.
Mize takes the spot held by Boston‘s Garrett Crochet, who is scheduled to start Saturday against Tampa Bay. Mize gives the Tigers six All-Stars, most of any team and tied for the franchise record.
Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia will replace Tampa Bay‘s Brandon Lowe, who went on the injured list with left oblique tightness. The additions of Estévez and Garcia give the Royals four All-Stars, matching their 2024 total.
The Seattle Mariners announced center fielder Julio Rodríguez will not participate, and he was replaced by teammate Randy Arozarena. Rodríguez had been voted onto the AL roster via the players’ ballot. The Mariners, who have five All-Stars, said Rodríguez will use the break to “recuperate, rest and prepare for the second half.”
Arozarena is an All-Star for the second time. He started in left field for the AL two years ago, when he was with Tampa Bay. Arozarena was the runner-up to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the 2023 Home Run Derby.
Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen, a first-time All-Star, is replacing Angels left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is scheduled to start Saturday night at Arizona. Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts.
San Diego added a third NL All-Star reliever in lefty Adrián Morejón, who replaces Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler. The Phillies’ right-hander is scheduled to start at San Diego on Saturday night. Morejón entered the weekend with a 1.71 ERA in 45 appearances.
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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — Former White Sox lefty Mark Buehrle was forever immortalized inside Rate Field as the team unveiled a statue in his honor Friday.
Buehrle, 46, played 16 years in the majors, including the first 12 with the White Sox, who he helped win a World Series in 2005. He won 214 games and pitched 200 innings or more in 14 consecutive seasons from 2001 to 2014.
“I can’t put it into words,” Buehrle said after the unveiling. “You don’t play the game for any of this. You never think of number retirements or statues. I can’t even wrap my head around it. It doesn’t make sense.”
The statue is an action shot of him throwing a pitch.
His wife and kids were in attendance and helped pull off the cover to unveil the statue while his 2005 teammates looked on. The event kicked off a weekend reunion for the World Series team which went 11-1 in the postseason, beating the Houston Astros in four games to take home the title.
Buehrle was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, finishing fifth in Cy Young voting in 2005.
“Well-deserved,” former right fielder Jermaine Dye said of the statue. “Great teammate. Great leader. Definitely someone you want on a ballclub to lead a pitching staff.”
The White Sox rotation — led by Buehrle — threw four complete games in the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox in 2005, missing a fifth complete game by two-thirds of an inning. It’s an unheard of accomplishment in today’s game since starters infrequently go the distance.
Besides being an innings-eater on the mound, Buehrle was a fast worker — a favorite trait of his catcher, A.J Pierzynski. And he wasn’t someone who threw a lot of different pitches. He caught it and threw it without much input from behind the plate.
“He was fast,” Pierzynski said. “We had Jermaine Dye calling pitches from right field some games. We did come crazy things you wouldn’t recommend to people to do nowadays.”
Buehrle is a notoriously low-key guy who hates the spotlight but even he was moved by the team’s decision to honor him with a statue, which joins former slugger Harold Baines in the right-field concourse.
“I joked with him when I saw him,” Dye said. “I told him ‘Man it takes you getting a statue to get you out of the house.'”
Buehrle added: “I was literally nervous as can be today. This is not my comfort zone but by no means am I taking it lightly. This is incredible.”
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