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One in five taxpayers will be paying higher-rate income tax by 2027, in what the Institute for Fiscal Studies describes as a “seismic shift” since the 1990s.

Higher rates of tax were previously thought of as being for the most wealthy, but the six-year freeze in income tax allowances and thresholds that began last month will mean more lower earners are included.

The process is called fiscal drag, and it happens when inflation or income growth moves a taxpayer into a higher tax bracket – increasing tax revenue without the government having to actually raise rates.

The IFS said that by the 2027/28 financial year, more than one in eight nurses, one in six machinists and fitters, one in five electricians and one in four teachers will become higher-rate taxpayers. Almost half of surveyors and legal professionals will also be paying higher rate tax.

Isaac Delestre, a research economist at the IFS, said: “For income tax, the story of the last 30 years has been one of higher-rate tax going from being something reserved for only the very richest, to something that a much larger proportion of adults can expect to encounter.”

Mr Delestre said: “Whether or not the scope of these higher rates should be expanded is a political choice as much as an economic one, but achieving it with a freeze leaves the income tax system hostage to the vagaries of inflation – the higher inflation turns out to be, the bigger impact the freeze will have.”

In 1991/92, 3.5% of UK adults (1.6 million) paid the 40% higher rate of income tax. By 2022/23, 11% (6.1 million) were paying higher rates, the report said.

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The standard personal allowance – the amount someone does not have to pay tax on – is £12,570. Above that amount, a person pays 20% tax until they hit an income of £50,271, when the 40% rate kicks in.

But for the 40% rate to impact the same fraction of people as it did in 1991, the higher rate threshold would need to kick in at nearly £100,000 in 2027/28, the report said.

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Scotland’s tax bands are different, and the IFS said that it included both those paying the Scottish higher tax rate at 42% and the Scottish top rate at 47% as well as those paying the higher rate of 40% or additional rate of 45% elsewhere in the UK.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “After borrowing hundreds of billions to support the economy during the pandemic and Putin’s energy shock, we had to take some difficult decisions to repair the public finances and get debt falling.

“It is vital we stick to this plan to halve inflation this year and get our economy growing again.

“To support working families, we have doubled the tax-free personal allowance, taking three million of the lowest earners out of paying income tax altogether.”

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Ford plans to cut 4,000 jobs – including 800 in UK

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Ford plans to cut 4,000 jobs - including 800 in UK

Ford has announced plans to cut 4,000 jobs across Europe – including 800 in the UK.

The car manufacturer said the cuts were needed as part of plans to bolster its competitiveness amid the stuttering drive to an all-electric vehicle (EV) future that has hit sales.

Ford said the cuts would take place over the next three years.

The bulk of the job losses would be in Germany, the company said, with 2,900 roles under threat there.

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Most of those affected across Europe would be in administrative and support functions and product development, it added, with some manufacturing jobs hit too.

Ford was clear that its UK power unit plants at Dagenham and Halewood would not be affected.

It was aiming to achieve all the job losses through voluntary means by the end of 2027.

The announcement was made as EV sales across Europe face strong competition from China, a continued squeeze on household incomes and concerns among buyers around electric car ownership.

Ford said the restructuring aimed to create a “more cost-competitive structure and ensure the long-term sustainability” of the business amid “lower-than-expected demand” for its electric products.

Dave Johnston, Ford’s European vice president for transformation and partnerships, said: “We are proud of our new product portfolio for Europe and committed to building a thriving business in Europe for generations to come.

“It is critical to take difficult but decisive action to ensure Ford’s future competitiveness in Europe,” he said.

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Starmer pledges 81% emissions cut by 2035

Ford said it was seeking a greater partnership with governments and others over the difficulties being encountered in the transformation.

Manufacturers face stiff targets to halt sales of petrol and diesel-powered vehicles under efforts to combat climate change.

Some were meeting the Transport Secretary Louise Haigh on Wednesday to discuss the gradual toughening of rules for EV sales in the UK.

Firms face fines if electric cars fail to make up a percentage of their overall sales – a figure that stands at 22% for 2024.

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Collectively, that target is widely tipped to be missed this year and companies argue that sceptical consumers and businesses need incentives to make the change.

Worries include the cost of the vehicles themselves despite widespread discounting to help drive interest, vehicle ranges and significant holes in the public charging network.

The UK car industry lobby group the SMMT, which has highlighted a £2bn investment in price drops this year, warned last month that its members could not sustain their efforts to help drive EV sales indefinitely.

While the rule for 2024 requires manufacturers to ensure that at least 22% of new cars sold are zero emission, it rises to 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

The carmakers face a fine of £15,000 for each non zero-emission vehicle sold that exceeds the annual percentage target.

Germany’s car industry accounts for about 5% of its economy.

VW is among other manufacturers there also making cuts to bolster competitiveness.

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Inflation hits higher than expected 2.3% in October as energy bills rise

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Inflation hits higher than expected 2.3% in October as energy bills rise

Inflation has risen by more than expected due to an increase in energy bills, official figures showed.

It’s the first rise in the rate of price increases, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), for three months.

The figure stood at 2.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), above the 2.2% forecast by economists.

This is also a sizeable increase on the 1.7% recorded a month earlier.

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Household gas and electricity bills rose last month as the energy price cap brought the cost of a typical annual bill up to an extra £12 a month.

Inflation wasn’t higher because there were falls in live music and theatre ticket prices and continued drops in raw materials due to cheaper oil.

What about interest rates?

Today’s data may affect the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting interest rates next month.

Before the inflation figure was announced, there was a 78.3% chance of no change – and a 21.7% chance that the cost of borrowing would fall by 0.25 percentage points.

After the announcement that changed to 84% chance of no cut.

Also on the up was another important measure of inflation watched by the Bank – core inflation, which measures price rises but excludes food and energy costs as they’re liable to sharply fall or rise.

Core rose to 3.3%, more than the forecast 3.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Services inflation also came in above forecast and higher than a month ago at 5%.

Political reaction

Responding to the figures the chief secretary to the treasury, Darren Jones, said:

“We know that families across Britain are still struggling with the cost of living. That is why the budget last month focused on fixing the foundation of our economy so we can deliver change.”

“But we know there is more to do. That is why the government is focused on economic growth and investment so we can make every part of the country better off.”

The shadow chancellor Mel Stride said:

“It’s higher inflation and lower growth under Labour.”

“What is worrying about today’s announcement is that inflation is running ahead of expectations and official forecasts state these figures are not expected to improve. Labour’s budget will push up inflation and mortgage rates.”

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‘We need help’: Workers say shoplifting is ‘out of control’ after surge in brazen thefts

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'We need help': Workers say shoplifting is 'out of control' as brazen thefts explode

A woman casually walks into a convenience store and starts filling a bread crate with goods from one of the aisles.

A shop assistant tries to stop her, but she shrugs him off, undeterred. With the crate now full of items, she leaves without paying.

It is a scenario that is played out day in and day out across Britain, as retailers warn the surge in shoplifting is now “out of control”.

A Nisa supermarket storefront
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Four in five store owners told Sky News they’ve experienced shoplifting in just one week

I’m sitting in the security office of a busy city centre shop and I’m watching as a schoolboy walks in and helps himself to a sandwich, stuffing it into his jacket.

Watching with me is shop worker Anton Mavroianu who positions himself by the main entrance waiting for the youngster to leave.

When the boy does leave, Anton demands the item back. Instead of being frozen with fear that he’s been caught, the boy laughs and walks off.

“All we can do is try to stop them,” Anton tells me. “But this is just another day for us.”

Anton Mavroianu
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Anton Mavroianu said he has been threatened with a knife while trying to stop shoplifters

A few weeks earlier, when Anton tried to stop a shoplifter who had stolen from the store, the man pulled out a knife and tried to attack him.

This terrifying incident is an example of the very real threat posed to shop workers as they try to stem the tide of brazen thefts.

Shoplifting offences recorded by police in England and Wales have risen to the highest level in 20 years.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) also reports that theft-related losses cost the retail sector millions each year, adding strain to an industry already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and economic uncertainty.

For small businesses, which lack the resources of larger chains, persistent theft can threaten their very survival.

Read more on shoplifting:
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CCTV of a Nisa supermarket

Ricky Dougall owns a chain of convenience stores and says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year.

“Shoplifting is a huge problem and it is what stops us from growing the business.

“People come in and help themselves like they own the place and when you call the police, most of the time, they don’t turn up.”

Supermarket owner Ricky Dougall - who says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year
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Ricky Dougall said part of the problem is how shoplifting is classified during sentencing

Mr Dougall says part of the problem is how this type of crime is classified.

Sentencing guidelines for thefts of under £200, so-called “low level shoplifting”, were relaxed in 2016. That is being blamed for the surge in cases.

An exclusive Sky News and Association of Convenience Stores survey shows that 80% of shopkeepers reported a retail crime within a week in October.

The poll also found 94% of shopkeepers say that in their experience, shoplifting has got worse over the last year, with 83% not confident that the police will take action against the perpetrators of retail crime on their premises.

Paul Cheema from the Association of Convenience Stores says retailers are looking to government to support them.

“I would say officials do not give a s*** about us retailers,” he tells me. “The losses are too big and I don’t think we can sustain that anymore.

“I would urge Keir Starmer to come and meet us and see up close the challenges that we are facing.”

Retailers have responded by investing heavily in security measures, from advanced surveillance systems to hiring more security staff.

But these investments come at a cost, often passed down to consumers through higher prices.

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I get chatting to Matt Roberts, head of retail in the store I am in. He worries about shoplifting, but he worries about the staff more.

He says: “I would imagine they dread coming to work because they’re always on tenterhooks wondering whether something is going to happen today, whether they are going to have to try and confront someone.

“It’s a horrible feeling. It’s out of control and we need help.”

Matt Roberts, head of retail at a Nisa supermarket
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Matt Roberts says he is concerned for his staff, who have to confront shoplifters

The government has acknowledged the urgency of the issue. Home secretary-led discussions with retail associations and law enforcement are under way to craft a comprehensive strategy.

In the King’s Speech, the government outlined details of a Crime and Policing Bill, which promised to “introduce stronger measures to tackle low level shoplifting”, as well as introducing a separate offence for assaulting a shop worker.

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