What are the Tory renegade conferences and how much of a threat do they pose to Rishi Sunak’s leadership?
On Monday evening, Rishi Sunak attempted to settle the nerves of restless Tory MPs following the party’s drubbing at the local elections.
A garden party – complete with pork pies from his Yorkshire constituency – might not cut the mustard, though.
The loss of more than 1,000 council seats would be enough cause for concern for any Conservative leader and prime minister.
But Mr Sunak has also had to contend with a number of Tory conferences that have been interpreted by some as an undermining of his leadership.
The first, the grassroots Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), took place in Bournemouth and can be described as a gathering of those loyal to Mr Sunak’s predecessor Boris Johnson.
Set up by backers of the former leader, the new group wants to give party members more power and has been critical of the way Mr Sunak was elected last autumn – describing it as “undemocratic” and a “coronation”.
The second, which began on Monday and is continuing into Wednesday, is the National Conservatism forum, which espouses right-wing, Christian family values and has been inspired by movements in the United States.
Both conferences have lamented the current direction of the Conservative party while emphasising their own remedy for its woes.
But what are these renegade splinter groups and how much of a threat do they pose to Mr Sunak’s leadership? Sky News explains.
Patel says Sunak risks ‘managed decline’
The CDO was set up last December – just months after Mr Sunak assumed the leadership – with a call for Tory members to “take back control” of the party after he was elected without a members’ vote following the chaos of Liz Truss’s resignation.
Key figures include billionaire Conservative donor Lord Cruddas, the party’s former treasurer, who is spearheading the campaign with key Johnson ally and former home secretary Priti Patel.
The group’s aim is to “empower party members and steer its political direction back to the centre-right” following the ousting of Mr Johnson – although even his most enthusiastic supporters have suggested a return for the former prime minister would be highly unlikely.
The group has also expressed anger at Mr Sunak’s “left of centre” position around taxes – who has refused their calls to cut them immediately.
At its meeting at the weekend, the conference heard from the likes of Ms Patel, former culture secretary Nadine Dorries and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.
In words that may unnerve Mr Sunak, Ms Patel blamed the “centre of the party” for the Conservatives’ heavy losses in the local elections and said the party “would not have seen over 1,000 of our friends and colleagues lose their seats” if centrists had “spent more time with us, listening, engaging”.
She also told CDO members on Saturday that Mr Sunak needed to offer more “hope and optimism” for Conservatism or he risked being responsible for the “managed decline” of the party and defeat at next year’s general election.
One Tory MP who spoke to Sky News said the CDO was created out of “frustration that members didn’t have a say” on the leadership of the Conservative party.
“Because the PM never won an election of the membership, a lot of the parliamentary party think we need to shape it and will form these groups,” they said.
But asked whether Mr Sunak’s position was under threat, they said: “I don’t think there is any chance of changing prime minister before the next election.”
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Braverman emerges as main advocate for ‘traditional values’
Perhaps the more controversial of the conferences is the National Conservatism forum – a global, right-wing movement which claims that traditional values are being “undermined and overthrown”.
Its website says that national conservatism is the “best path forward for a democratic world confronted by a rising China abroad and a powerful new Marxism at home”.
US speakers who will feature at the London conference include JD Vance, a right-wing senator who was backed by Donald Trump, and Rod Dreher, an American writer who sympathises with Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.
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Jacob Rees-Mogg’s speech was interrupted by protesters
The conference has already attracted criticism for some of the values its supporters have promoted – including that family is defined as being between a man and a woman only – prompting Downing Street to distance itself from the gathering this morning.
Tory MP Miriam Cates opened the three-day conference in London on Monday with a speech in which she claimed that falling birth rates are “the one overarching threat to British conservatism and indeed the whole of Western society” and that “cultural Marxism” was “destroying our children’s souls”.
If Mr Johnson was centre stage at the CDO conference in Bournemouth, then the star of the show at the National Conservatism forum was Home Secretary Suella Braverman.
Ms Braverman made immigration the central plank of her speech, arguing “it’s not racist” to want control of the UK’s borders.
Her speech has been interpreted as jockeying for the Tory leadership in the event the Conservatives lose the next election, with former cabinet minister Robert Buckland suggesting to Sky News that Ms Braverman should “concentrate on the job” of being the home secretary.
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MPs were asked if Suella Braverman is launching a leadership bid
One Tory watcher told Sky News that the two conferences were not a “serious threat” to Mr Sunak, describing the CDO gathering as a “confused rabble” and the National Conservatism forum as a “flat-pack US conference where Braverman is auditioning for a 2024 bid”.
This in itself is unlikely to trouble Mr Sunak given Ms Braverman’s reputation for openly expressing her views and the fact that, having run for the leadership herself, her ambitions are not a secret.
“The battle is about managed succession not regicide,” they explained.
Until the local elections, Mr Sunak had been praised for steadying the Tory ship – a ship that has now witnessed its first signs of mutiny.
For Mr Sunak, these conferences might serve as a reminder that should he fail to set out an attractive course for the Conservative party, there are plenty of people waiting in the wings who are willing to do it for him.
It has been an extraordinary few hours which may well set the tone for a hugely consequential week ahead.
In the time that it took me to fly from London to Saudi Arabia, where President Donald Trump will begin a pivotal Middle East tour this week, a flurry of news has emerged on a range of key global challenges.
• On the Gaza war: The Trump administration has confirmed it’s holding talks with Hamas, which says it will release a hostage amid renewed hopes of a ceasefire.
• On the Ukraine war: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul – this announcement came minutes after Trump urged Zelenskyy to agree to the meeting.
• On the China-US trade war: The White House says the two countries have agreed to a “trade deal”. China said the talks, in Geneva, were “candid, in-depth and constructive”.
All three of these developments represent dramatic shifts in three separate challenges and hint at the remarkable influence the US president is having globally.
This sets the ground for what could be a truly consequential week for Trump’s presidency and his ability to effect change.
With his unique style, Trump is seeking to align numerous stars as he embarks on his first foreign diplomatic trip of his second presidency.
For days, it’s been unclear how the week ahead would unfold and which global challenge would be dominant.
The Saudi government has been instrumental as a broker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Qatar has been a mediator in the Gaza war.
Trump will visit both countries this week.
President Donald Trump on Air Force One earlier this month. File pic: AP
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Putin under pressure?
On Ukraine, Putin held a late-night news conference at the Kremlin on Saturday at which he made the surprise proposal of talks with Zelenskyy in Istanbul this Thursday.
But he rejected European and US calls for an immediate ceasefire.
The move was widely interpreted as a delay tactic.
Trump then issued a social media post urging Zelenskyy to accept the Russian proposal; effectively to call Putin’s bluff.
The American president wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”
Within minutes, Zelenskyy responded, agreeing to the talks.
“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.
The prospect of Putin and Zelenskyy together in Istanbul on Thursday is remarkable.
It raises the possibility that Trump would want to be there too.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomes other world leaders to Kyiv. Pic: Presidential Office of Ukraine/dpa/AP Images
Israel’s war in Gaza
On Gaza, it’s been announced that US envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Monday to finalise details for the release of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American hostage being held by Hamas.
The development comes after it was confirmed that Mr Witkoff has been holding discussions with Israel, Qatar and Egypt and, through them, with Hamas.
The talks focused on a possible Gaza hostage deal and larger peace discussions for a ceasefire.
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Gaza after around a year and a half of Israeli attacks. Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa
Just days ago, Israel announced a new military plan to move back into Gaza.
When do candid talks become a trade deal?
Meanwhile, officials from the United States and China have been holding talks in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve their trade war, which was instigated by Trump’s tariffs against China.
Late on Sunday evening, the White House released a statement claiming that a trade deal had been struck.
In a written statement, titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva”, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “I’m happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks… We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive. We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself. And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”
Beijing Global Times newspaper quoted the Chinese vice premier as saying that the talks were candid, in-depth and constructive.
However, the Chinese fell short of calling it a trade deal.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
A Qatari gift
In a separate development, US media reports say that Qatar is preparing to gift Trump a Boeing 747 from its royal fleet, which he would use as a replacement for the existing and aging Air Force One plane.
The Qatari government says no deal has been finalised, but the development is already causing controversy because of the optics of accepting gifts of this value.
Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.
There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.
In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner. That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).
Trump latest: US and China slash tariffs in trade war de-escalation
So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.
In short, China will still face an extra 30% tariffs (the 20% levies cast as punishment for China’s involvement in fentanyl imports and the 10% “floor” set on “Liberation Day”) on top of the residual 10% average from the Biden era.
But the rest of the extra tariffs will be paused for 90 days. China, in turn, has suspended its own retaliatory tariffs on the US.
The market has responded as you would probably have expected, with share prices leaping in relief. But that raises a question: is the trade war now over? Now that the two sides have blinked, can globalisation continue more or less as it had before?
That, it turns out, is a trickier and more complex question than it might first seem.
Pic: AP
For one thing, even if one were to assume this is a permanent truce rather than a suspended one, it still leaves tariffs considerably higher than they were only last year. And China faces tariffs far higher than most other countries (tot up the existing ones and the Trump era ones and China faces average tariffs of around 40%, while the average for most countries is between 8% and 14%, according to Capital Economics).
In other words, the US is still implementing an economic policy designed to increase the cost of doing business with China, even if it no longer attempts to prevent it altogether. The fact that last week’s trade agreement with the UK contains clauses seemingly designed to encourage it to raise trade barriers against China for reasons of “security” only reinforces this suspicion. The trade war is still simmering, even if it’s no longer as hot as it was a few days ago.
Read more:
US-UK trade deal ‘isn’t worth the paper it’s written on’
Key details in ‘historic’ US-UK trade deal
And more broadly, the deeper impact of the trade rollercoaster in recent months is unlikely to disappear altogether. Companies remain more nervous about investing in factories and expansions in the face of such deep economic instability. No-one is entirely sure the White House won’t just U-turn once again.
That being said, it’s hard not to escape the conclusion that the US president has blinked in this trade war. In the face of a potential recession, he has pulled back from the scariest and most damaging of his tariffs, earlier and to a greater extent than many had expected.
World
Zelenskyy’s offer to meet Putin raises the stakes in this already high-stakes game of diplomacy
Diplomacy over Ukraine has become even more of a game of high-stakes poker.
In the early hours of Sunday, Vladimir Putin played his hand, rejecting demands for a ceasefire and proposing direct talks in Istanbul instead.
Read more:
Trump says Ukraine should ‘immediately’ agree to direct talks with Russia
Ukraine ‘ready to meet’ Russia after Putin calls for peace talks
That was in response to the opening gambit made on Saturday by Ukraine and its European allies.
Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer said they were “calling Putin out”, that if he was really serious about peace, he should agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting on Monday.
And they thought they had Donald Trump’s backing until he made his move.
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Kremlin: ‘We don’t share Starmer’s view’
Late Sunday, he drove a cart and horses through claims of western unity, coming down on Putin’s side.
Ukraine, he said, should submit to the Russian leader’s suggestion of talks.
“Ukraine should agree to this – immediately”, he posted. Then: “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin…”
So much for the Coalition of the Willing having Putin where they wanted him.
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Are Putin’s call for peace talks genuine?
Trump let him off the hook.
All eyes were then on President Zelenskyy, who has now in turn dramatically raised the stakes.
He will go to Istanbul, he said, and wait there for Vladimir Putin.
Over to you, Vladimir.
Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
The fast-paced diplomacy aside, the last twenty-four hours have brought Europe closer to a moment of truth.
They thought they had Donald Trump’s support, and yet even with 30 nations demanding an unconditional ceasefire, the US president seemed, in the end, to side with the Russian leader.
He has helped Putin get out of a hole.
Yet again, Trump could not be counted on to pressure Vladimir Putin to end this war.
If America is no longer a reliable partner over Ukraine, Europe may need to go it alone, whatever the cost.
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