The global temperature is set to break a key temperature limit for the first time within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.
There is now a 66% chance of breaching a global average temperature 1.5C at least once between now and 2027 – which would mark the first time in human history.
Almost every country in the world has committed to trying to limit warming to ideally only 1.5C above levels in pre-industrial times.
Nations did this when they signed the historic Paris climate agreement at the COP21 climate conference, in a bid to keep the dangerous impacts of climate change, like floods, rising sea levels and droughts, more manageable.
Breaching 1.5C, while alarming, would not mean the world had permanently surpassed the threshold, scientists stress.
A crumbling 1.5C target could embolden big polluters
Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the climate change narrative has focused on efforts to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
At successive UN climate summits, the language may have shifted a little, from keeping it within reach to keeping it alive, to not letting it die – but 1.5C has been a hugely symbolic center of gravity around which the vast majority of discussions have rotated.
Now, for the first time, scientists say it is more likely that not that this barrier will be breached in the coming five years.
They have stressed that this is worrying but temporary and that the temperature could be brought down over the long term by a sharp decrease in emissions.
But this is the kind of moment that keeps those engaged in the battle against climate change up at night.
Because the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers and climate diplomats fighting to keep consensus in a warming world, is that this hard-fought shared goal, a rare common value, starts to crumble.
If the international community starts to believe that 1.5 is gone, there will be space for big polluters, national and commercial, to wriggle away from obligations and to slow progress, at a time when the planet can least afford it.
The global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.
But it is a sign the world is getting closer, and that humanity’s attempt to reign in climate change, which is caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, may have been too small and too slow.
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Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office Hadley Centre, one of the experts who led the report, said: “We have never crossed 1.5C. The current record is 1.28C.
“It’s very likely we’re going to exceed that, we might even reach 1.5C – it’s more likely than not that we will.
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“It’s not this long-term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5C happening more and more often, we’re getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold.”
There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean average will exceed the 1.5C threshold.
The world has already warmed by around 1.1C at least.
The WMO also said there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.
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Is Spain too hot for tourists? By the late afternoon, April temperatures in Andalucia built towards nearly 40C (104F)
Dr Hermanson said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and a naturally-occurring weather event known as El Nino, which is a heating of the eastern Pacific which affects rainfall and temperatures globally.
The WMO said that its opposite – La Nina – has been cooling atmospheric temperatures for much of the last three years, but this has now ended.
Usually, El Nino raises global temperatures the year after it develops. So scientists are expecting temperatures to rise in 2024.
The WMO general secretary Professor Petteri Taalas said: “A warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
The United Nation’s climate science body the IPCC has said every increment of warming brings more damage to people and wildlife – it’s not a cliff edge at 1.5C, but a more desirable threshold.
Current plans to reduce greenhouse gases put the world on course for around 2.4C of warming by the end of this century, according to a leading climate consortium, Climate Action Tracker.
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A top adviser to the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, has said US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s remarks on halting weapons supplies “jeopardise ceasefire efforts”.
In his remarks yesterday, Mr Rubio called for international powers to stop sending military support to the RSF, the paramilitary group which has been at war with the Sudanese Army since 2023.
“This needs to stop. They’re clearly receiving assistance from outside,” Mr Rubio said.
In a statement on X, Elbasha Tibeig, adviser to RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, dismissed Mr Rubio’s comments as “an unsuccessful step” that does not serve global efforts aimed at reaching a humanitarian ceasefire.
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Mr Tibeig said Mr Rubio’s comments may lead to an escalation of the fighting.
The US, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt – known as the Quad – have been working on ways to end the war.
The war began in April 2023 after the Sudanesearmy and RSF, then partners, clashed over plans to integrate.
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Last week, the RSF said they had agreed to a US-led proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire. Mr Rubio doesn’t believe the RSF intends to comply with that agreement.
“The RSF has concluded that they’re winning and they want to keep going,” he said yesterday.
He added that they’re “not just fighting a war, which war alone is bad enough. They’re committing acts of sexual violence and atrocities, just horrifying atrocities, against women, children, innocent civilians of the most horrific kind. And it needs to end immediately”.
Image: Sudanese women who fled intense fighting in Al Fashir sit at a displacement camp in Al Dabba. Pic: Reuters/El Tayeb Siddig
The war has killed at least 40,000 people, according to the World Health Organisation, and displaced millions more. Aid groups say that the true death toll could be much higher.
The RSF is accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity across Sudan since the war started. Most recently, there were reports of mass killings during the fall of Al Fashir, a city which was recently captured by the RSF.
A Sky News investigation into events in Al Fashir found thousands were targeted in ‘killing fields’ around the Sudanese city.
Image: Grab from RSF social media channels in Al Fashir, Sudan
Marco Rubio did not specify which countries he was referring to in his calls to halt arms supplies, but US intelligence assessments have found that the United Arab Emirates, a close US ally, has been supplying weapons.
Previous reporting on Sky News has supported allegations that the UAE militarily supports the RSF, though the country officially denies it.
“I can just tell you, at the highest levels of our government, that case is being made and that pressure is being applied to the relevant parties,” Mr Rubio said.
After the last elections, which took place in 2021, a party led by influential Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr won the largest number of seats but withdrew from negotiations to form a new government.
Speaking in a televised speech following the announcement of the initial results, Mr Sudani said: “The voter turnout is clear evidence of another success, reflected in the restoration of confidence in the political system.”
Iraq has been wrecked by violence and dominated by powerful Iran-backed militias since it was invaded by a US-led coalition in 2003.
Earlier this year, Mr Sudani travelled to London to negotiate a series of deals on the economy and diplomacy.
Speaking to Sky News during his visit, he insisted he was in control of Iraq despite the presence of armed groups using its territory to attack Israel.
He said: “We’re not embarrassed in any way, we carry out our duties to enforce the law, to maintain security and stability in Iraq and reject all means of violence. We won’t allow any side to dictate the decision between peace and war.”
Ukraine’s justice and energy ministers have resigned amid a major embezzlement and kickbacks scandal involving the state nuclear power company.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the removal of Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko and Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk on Wednesday, with the pair later submitting their resignations.
The damaging scandal – fast becoming one of the most significant government crises since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion – has put top officials under scrutiny.
It could not come at a worse time for Ukraine, as Russia’s renewed attacks on energy infrastructure cause rolling blackouts and Kyiv’s outnumbered forces retreat under relentless assaults.
Image: Svitlana Grynchuk file image. Pic: Reuters
Image: Site of a Russian drone strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on 12 November, 2025. Pic: Reuters
At the centre of the scandal, Mr Halushchenko and other well-known ministers and officials are alleged to have gained payments from constructing fortifications against Moscow’s assaults on energy infrastructure. Former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov is also alleged to have been involved.
Mr Halushchenko said he would defend himself legally, while Mr Grynchuk posted on social media: “Within the scope of my professional activities there were no violations of the law.”
The findings of a 15-month investigation, including 1,000 hours of wiretaps, were revealed by the same anti-corruption watchdogs Mr Zelenskyy sought to weaken earlier this year.
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Image: Herman Halushchenko – file image. Pic: Reuters
Image: Blackout in Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
These resulted in the detention of five people, and another seven linked to about $100m (£76m) in alleged kickbacks in the energy sector.
Ukrainian officials are scrambling for European funds to manage mounting energy shortages as Moscow targets critical infrastructure and natural gas production in an attempt to damage public morale.
The nation has been plagued by corruption since gaining independence, and Mr Zelenskyy was elected on a mandate to eliminate graft.
Military procurement scandals also led to the ousting of Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov in 2023.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker with Zelenskyy’s party, said the scandal looks “really bad in the eyes of our European and American partners”.
He said: “Internally this scandal will be used to undermine unity and stability within the country. Externally, our enemies will use it as an argument to stop aid to Ukraine.
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Galushchenko and former Energoatom CEO Petro Kotin. Pic: Reuters
“While Russians destroy our power grid and people have to endure blackouts, someone at the top was stealing money during the war.”
But questions remain over how high the alleged corruption goes.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau, known as NABU, refrained from identifying the suspects.
But it said they included a businessman, a former adviser to the energy minister, an executive who oversaw physical protection at state energy company Energoatem, and others responsible for money laundering. It dubbed the scheme “Midas”.
The agency also accused eight people of abuse of office, bribery, and possession of disproportionate assets.
The investigation, which NABU said conducted over 70 raids, was welcomed by the Ukrainian president, who urged officials to cooperate with it. Energoatom said the inquiry didn’t disrupt its operations.
Image: Situation on the battlefield
NABU released excerpts of tapes in which the network, using code names and secretive language, discussed blackmail and pressuring Energoatom contractors to extract 10% to 15% in bribes and kickbacks in exchange for them to do business without facing internal blocks.
The network took advantage of a regulation enforced during martial law prohibiting contractors from claiming debts in court from companies providing essential services, such as Energoatom, which has annual revenues of around $4.7 billion (£3.6 billion). Four others worked to launder the money at a Kyiv office.
The tapes, which have not been independently verified, say about $1.2 million was handed to a former deputy prime minister, whom the plotters called “Che Guevara,” after the Argentinian revolutionary leader.
Ms Svyrydenko also said the cabinet submitted proposals to apply sanctions against Timur Mindich, a close associate of Zelenskyy, and businessman Alexander Tsukerman.