Global temperature set to break key 1.5C heat threshold for first time in next five years
The global temperature is set to break a key temperature limit for the first time within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.
There is now a 66% chance of breaching a global average temperature 1.5C at least once between now and 2027 – which would mark the first time in human history.
Almost every country in the world has committed to trying to limit warming to ideally only 1.5C above levels in pre-industrial times.
Nations did this when they signed the historic Paris climate agreement at the COP21 climate conference, in a bid to keep the dangerous impacts of climate change, like floods, rising sea levels and droughts, more manageable.
Breaching 1.5C, while alarming, would not mean the world had permanently surpassed the threshold, scientists stress.
A crumbling 1.5C target could embolden big polluters
Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the climate change narrative has focused on efforts to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
At successive UN climate summits, the language may have shifted a little, from keeping it within reach to keeping it alive, to not letting it die – but 1.5C has been a hugely symbolic center of gravity around which the vast majority of discussions have rotated.
Now, for the first time, scientists say it is more likely that not that this barrier will be breached in the coming five years.
They have stressed that this is worrying but temporary and that the temperature could be brought down over the long term by a sharp decrease in emissions.
But this is the kind of moment that keeps those engaged in the battle against climate change up at night.
Because the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers and climate diplomats fighting to keep consensus in a warming world, is that this hard-fought shared goal, a rare common value, starts to crumble.
If the international community starts to believe that 1.5 is gone, there will be space for big polluters, national and commercial, to wriggle away from obligations and to slow progress, at a time when the planet can least afford it.
The global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.
But it is a sign the world is getting closer, and that humanity’s attempt to reign in climate change, which is caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, may have been too small and too slow.
Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office Hadley Centre, one of the experts who led the report, said: “We have never crossed 1.5C. The current record is 1.28C.
“It’s very likely we’re going to exceed that, we might even reach 1.5C – it’s more likely than not that we will.
“It’s not this long-term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5C happening more and more often, we’re getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold.”
There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean average will exceed the 1.5C threshold.
The world has already warmed by around 1.1C at least.
The WMO also said there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.
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Dr Hermanson said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and a naturally-occurring weather event known as El Nino, which is a heating of the eastern Pacific which affects rainfall and temperatures globally.
The WMO said that its opposite – La Nina – has been cooling atmospheric temperatures for much of the last three years, but this has now ended.
Usually, El Nino raises global temperatures the year after it develops. So scientists are expecting temperatures to rise in 2024.
The WMO general secretary Professor Petteri Taalas said: “A warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
The United Nation’s climate science body the IPCC has said every increment of warming brings more damage to people and wildlife – it’s not a cliff edge at 1.5C, but a more desirable threshold.
Current plans to reduce greenhouse gases put the world on course for around 2.4C of warming by the end of this century, according to a leading climate consortium, Climate Action Tracker.
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Spain is to legalise about 300,000 undocumented migrants a year – at a time that many European countries are seeking to limit or deter migration.
The policy, approved on Tuesday by Spain’s left-wing minority coalition government, aims to tackle the country’s ageing workforce and low birthrate.
Around 250,000 registered foreign workers a year are needed to maintain the country’s welfare state, according to migration minister Elma Saiz.
The scheme, due to run from May next year until 2027, will allow foreigners living in Spain without proper documentation to obtain work permits and residency.
The exact number of foreigners living in Spain without documentation is unclear.
However, around 54,000 undocumented migrants reached Spain so far this year by sea or land, according to government figures.
Many arrive via the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago located off the coast of northwestern Africa.
Spain’s minister of inclusion, social security and migration, Elma Saiz. Pic: AP
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The figure compares to the 30,000 people who have arrived in the UK via small boats across the Channel so far in 2024.
The UK, as well as other European nations, including Germany, France, and the Netherlands, have in recent years taken tougher stances on migration.
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However, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has often described his government’s migration policies as a way to combat the country’s low birthrate.
The government’s new policy simplifies the administrative processes for short and long-term visas and provides migrants with additional workplace protections.
It also extends a visa offered previously to job-seekers for three months to one year.
Many migrants make a living in Spain’s underground economy as fruit pickers, caretakers, delivery drivers, or other low-paid jobs.
Migration minister Ms Saiz said the government’s new policy would help prevent abuse and “serve to combat mafias, fraud and the violation of rights”.
World
Alec Baldwin’s Rust premieres three years after fatal shooting – but cinematographer’s mother refuses to attend
Alec Baldwin’s Western film Rust has premiered at a festival in Poland, three years after the fatal shooting of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins on set.
The movie debuted at the Camerimage Festival in Poland, an event focusing on achievements in cinematography, to an audience of a few hundred – a more low-key affair than the typical fanfare of Hollywood releases.
Director Joel Souza, who was wounded in the shooting, said he hoped the completed film would now be a tribute to Ms Hutchins – who died after a prop gun held by Baldwin went off during filming in Santa Fe, New Mexico, in October 2021.
Rust director Joel Souza attended the film’s premiere in Poland. Pic: Reuters
Baldwin was charged with involuntary manslaughter and went on trial in July – but the case was dismissed in dramatic fashion during the hearing after the prosecution was accused of concealing ammunition evidence.
The star did not attend the premiere in Poland.
Speaking beforehand, Souza said it “wasn’t an easy decision by any means” to continue the film after Hutchins’s death, “but it became important to me and important to her husband that people see her final work”.
The church scene they were working on when Hutchins was shot has gone from the film, he said.
“It doesn’t exist anymore. We were never going to finish that… I changed the script and so I wiped that out of it.”
Cinematographer’s mother criticises Baldwin
Cinematographer Halyna Hutchins. Pic: Swen Studios/Handout via Reuters
Bianca Cline, the cinematographer who completed the film, also attended the event.
Ms Hutchins’s mother Olga Solovey, who has filed a lawsuit against Baldwin, did not attend and criticised the star for allegedly “unjustly” profiting from the tragedy.
In a statement issued by her lawyer, Gloria Allred, she said she had always hoped to watch her daughter’s “work come alive on screen” alongside her.
However, this opportunity was “ripped away”, she said.
Ms Solovey said Baldwin had not apologised to her and that her pain was increased by his “refusal to take responsibility”. She said there had been “no justice” for her daughter.
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Rust’s armourer Hannah Gutierrez, who was in charge of weapons on the set, was jailed for 18 months earlier this year, after being found guilty of involuntary manslaughter during a trial separate to Baldwin’s. She is appealing the sentence.
Rust is billed as the story of a 13-year-old boy who, left to fend for himself and his younger brother following their parents’ deaths in 1880s Wyoming, goes on the run with his long-estranged grandfather after being sentenced to hang for the accidental killing of a local rancher.
The Polish festival’s ticketing website reportedly crashed on Tuesday morning due to high demand for tickets to the world premiere.
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