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The global temperature is set to break a key temperature limit for the first time within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.

There is now a 66% chance of breaching a global average temperature 1.5C at least once between now and 2027 – which would mark the first time in human history.

Almost every country in the world has committed to trying to limit warming to ideally only 1.5C above levels in pre-industrial times.

Nations did this when they signed the historic Paris climate agreement at the COP21 climate conference, in a bid to keep the dangerous impacts of climate change, like floods, rising sea levels and droughts, more manageable.

Breaching 1.5C, while alarming, would not mean the world had permanently surpassed the threshold, scientists stress.

A crumbling 1.5C target could embolden big polluters


Hannah Thomas-Peter

Hannah Thomas-Peter

Climate change and energy correspondent

@hannahtpsky

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the climate change narrative has focused on efforts to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

At successive UN climate summits, the language may have shifted a little, from keeping it within reach to keeping it alive, to not letting it die – but 1.5C has been a hugely symbolic center of gravity around which the vast majority of discussions have rotated.

Now, for the first time, scientists say it is more likely that not that this barrier will be breached in the coming five years.

They have stressed that this is worrying but temporary and that the temperature could be brought down over the long term by a sharp decrease in emissions.

But this is the kind of moment that keeps those engaged in the battle against climate change up at night.

Because the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers and climate diplomats fighting to keep consensus in a warming world, is that this hard-fought shared goal, a rare common value, starts to crumble.

If the international community starts to believe that 1.5 is gone, there will be space for big polluters, national and commercial, to wriggle away from obligations and to slow progress, at a time when the planet can least afford it.

The global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.

But it is a sign the world is getting closer, and that humanity’s attempt to reign in climate change, which is caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, may have been too small and too slow.

More on Climate Change

Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office Hadley Centre, one of the experts who led the report, said: “We have never crossed 1.5C. The current record is 1.28C.

“It’s very likely we’re going to exceed that, we might even reach 1.5C – it’s more likely than not that we will.

“It’s not this long-term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5C happening more and more often, we’re getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold.”

There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean average will exceed the 1.5C threshold.

The world has already warmed by around 1.1C at least.

The WMO also said there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.

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Dr Hermanson said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and a naturally-occurring weather event known as El Nino, which is a heating of the eastern Pacific which affects rainfall and temperatures globally.

The WMO said that its opposite – La Nina – has been cooling atmospheric temperatures for much of the last three years, but this has now ended.

Usually, El Nino raises global temperatures the year after it develops. So scientists are expecting temperatures to rise in 2024.

The WMO general secretary Professor Petteri Taalas said: “A warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.

“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

The United Nation’s climate science body the IPCC has said every increment of warming brings more damage to people and wildlife – it’s not a cliff edge at 1.5C, but a more desirable threshold.

Current plans to reduce greenhouse gases put the world on course for around 2.4C of warming by the end of this century, according to a leading climate consortium, Climate Action Tracker.

Watch The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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The speed at which Israel ‘took down’ Iranian air defences was ‘shocking’, ex-Mossad intelligence chief claims

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The speed at which Israel 'took down' Iranian air defences was 'shocking', ex-Mossad intelligence chief claims

A former director of intelligence at Israeli spy agency Mossad has told Sky News it was “shocking” how quickly Israel “took down” Iran’s air defences.

On 13 June, the Israeli military, in an operation called “Rising Lion”, started carrying out aerial attacks on Iran, hitting sites including some of its most important nuclear installations.

Israel said Iran was on the verge of building a nuclear bomb – something Tehran has always denied seeking from its uranium enrichment programme.

Since those air attacks, both countries have been trading daily missile strikes.

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Attacks in Tehran overnight

Live updates: US prepares evacuation flights from Israel

Ex-Mossad boss Zohar Palti told The World With Yalda Hakim that it took his country’s air force 36-48 hours to “dominate completely” the skies above Iran.

“This is shocking in a way. This is amazing,” he said.

He added: “We thought that it would be much harder, you know, because I don’t want to brag or do things like that. I mean, it was much more fast than we anticipated.”

Israeli ceasefire ‘could be in days’

Mr Palti said he believes that in two days to a week, Israel “can call” a ceasefire.

“We will need of course the international community and when I say the international community, it’s basically the Americans in this case and no doubt we will need the support of the E3, meaning the Europeans,” he added.

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and points to its right to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment.

Mr Palti said the Americans have the ability to “take all the [Iranian] regime in a couple of hours”.

He said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was at a “crossroads” and had two options – “the existence of the regime” or “give up his inspiration right now to build a military nuclear bomb. I think it’s an easy decision”.

Read more:
Analysis: Moscow switches to crisis mode
Analysis: Trump’s extreme version of maximum pressure diplomacy

Zohar Palti, former Mossad director of intelligence
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Zohar Palti, former Mossad director of intelligence

Some Israeli officials have admitted Israel won’t be able to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear programme, unless US bombers drop ordnance that can penetrate sites buried deep underground.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that any US strikes targeting the Islamic Republic will “result in irreparable damage for them” and that his country would not bow to Donald Trump’s call for surrender.

On Wednesday, President Trump would not say whether he has decided to order an American strike on Iran.

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Supreme leader’s warning to US

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on Monday that Israel’s control of Iranian airspace was “a game-changer”.

And national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said pilots could operate “against countless more targets” over Tehran, thanks to the destruction of “dozens and dozens” of air defence batteries.

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In the latest bombing, Israel said its air force destroyed the headquarters of Iran’s internal security service.

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British survivor of Air India crash carries brother’s coffin after being discharged from hospital

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British survivor of Air India crash carries brother's coffin after being discharged from hospital

A British man – the sole survivor of the Air India crash in Ahmedabad – has been discharged from hospital, the airline has confirmed.

Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, 40, has since been seen in video as a pallbearer for the coffin of his brother – one of the 241 people killed in the crash – at a funeral in western India.

At least 30 people also died on the ground as the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner struck a medical college hostel shortly after take-off from the airport in the state of Gujarat on Thursday.

In a statement, Air India said it was “in mourning for the tragic loss” of passengers and crew aboard flight AI171 and is in contact with relatives of those killed, including 52 British nationals.

It said it was working to repatriate the deceased to the UK and other parts of the world, adding: “The sole survivor of the accident, also a British national, has been discharged from hospital.”

“The investigation is ongoing,” it said. “We are cooperating with all parties involved and are committed to sharing verified information and will continue to provide updates wherever we can.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Vishwash Kumar Ramesh.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Vishwash Kumar Ramesh in hospital


On flight AI171 to Gatwick, there were 169 Indians, 53 Britons, seven Portuguese, and one Canadian among the passengers, along with 12 crew.

The only survivor, Mr Ramesh, was in seat 11A, near the emergency exit. Speaking from his hospital bed on Friday, he said he “still can’t believe” he survived.

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Dozens of anxious family members are waiting to collect the bodies of loved ones as doctors work to gather dental samples and perform DNA profiling to identify victims.

Air India and the Indian government are looking at issues linked to engine thrust, flaps, and why the landing gear remained extended, or in the down position, after take-off.

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Who is the Brit who survived the plane crash?

Both the cockpit voice and flight data recorders, also called black boxes, have been recovered. They will be crucial to the crash investigation, which includes air accident investigators from the UK and US.

India’s aviation safety watchdog has asked Air India for the training records of the pilots and dispatchers, while an inspection of Air India’s 787 fleet did not reveal any major issues.

While there has not been an update on the possible cause of the crash, Indian officials have raised concerns about recent maintenance-related issues reported by the airline and advised the carrier to “strictly adhere to regulations”.

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Donald Trump’s comments about getting involved in Israel-Iran conflict are raising alarm bells in Moscow

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Donald Trump's comments about getting involved in Israel-Iran conflict are raising alarm bells in Moscow

Russia is getting nervous about Donald Trump’s trigger finger, and it shows.

Comments from deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov – warning the US against joining Israel’s military campaign – betray Moscow’s growing unease that it could be about to lose its closest Middle Eastern ally.

Russia has strong ties with Iran, which have deepened since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

These were formalised in a strategic partnership pact the two countries signed at the start of the year.

Israel-Iran conflict – live updates

So, at first, Russia seemed to view its ally’s conflict with Israel as an opportunity to gain leverage. The Kremlin was quick to offer its services as a potential mediator.

If Vladimir Putin could persuade Tehran to back down and return to nuclear talks with Washington, he’d potentially have a favour to cash in with the White House over its military support for Ukraine.

But the offers to mediate fell on deaf ears.

And with Mr Trump threatening to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader, Moscow has switched to crisis mode – fearful of losing its second key regional ally in six months, after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

So, as well as Ryabkov, other senior figures have taken to the airwaves.

Russia’s spy chief Sergei Naryshkin called the situation “critical”.

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Israel-Iran conflict: Your questions answered

Read more:
Who has been targeted in Iran?
How the conflict escalated

And, according to ministry of foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, the world is “millimetres away from catastrophe” due to Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

It’s quite the spectacle – a country that’s been waging war on its neighbour for more than three years is now urging others to show military restraint.

That’s because US involvement poses serious consequences, not just for Iran, but for Russia too.

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