The global temperature is set to break a key temperature limit for the first time within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.
There is now a 66% chance of breaching a global average temperature 1.5C at least once between now and 2027 – which would mark the first time in human history.
Almost every country in the world has committed to trying to limit warming to ideally only 1.5C above levels in pre-industrial times.
Nations did this when they signed the historic Paris climate agreement at the COP21 climate conference, in a bid to keep the dangerous impacts of climate change, like floods, rising sea levels and droughts, more manageable.
Breaching 1.5C, while alarming, would not mean the world had permanently surpassed the threshold, scientists stress.
A crumbling 1.5C target could embolden big polluters
Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the climate change narrative has focused on efforts to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
At successive UN climate summits, the language may have shifted a little, from keeping it within reach to keeping it alive, to not letting it die – but 1.5C has been a hugely symbolic center of gravity around which the vast majority of discussions have rotated.
Now, for the first time, scientists say it is more likely that not that this barrier will be breached in the coming five years.
They have stressed that this is worrying but temporary and that the temperature could be brought down over the long term by a sharp decrease in emissions.
But this is the kind of moment that keeps those engaged in the battle against climate change up at night.
Because the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers and climate diplomats fighting to keep consensus in a warming world, is that this hard-fought shared goal, a rare common value, starts to crumble.
If the international community starts to believe that 1.5 is gone, there will be space for big polluters, national and commercial, to wriggle away from obligations and to slow progress, at a time when the planet can least afford it.
The global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.
But it is a sign the world is getting closer, and that humanity’s attempt to reign in climate change, which is caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, may have been too small and too slow.
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Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office Hadley Centre, one of the experts who led the report, said: “We have never crossed 1.5C. The current record is 1.28C.
“It’s very likely we’re going to exceed that, we might even reach 1.5C – it’s more likely than not that we will.
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“It’s not this long-term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5C happening more and more often, we’re getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold.”
There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean average will exceed the 1.5C threshold.
The world has already warmed by around 1.1C at least.
The WMO also said there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.
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Is Spain too hot for tourists? By the late afternoon, April temperatures in Andalucia built towards nearly 40C (104F)
Dr Hermanson said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and a naturally-occurring weather event known as El Nino, which is a heating of the eastern Pacific which affects rainfall and temperatures globally.
The WMO said that its opposite – La Nina – has been cooling atmospheric temperatures for much of the last three years, but this has now ended.
Usually, El Nino raises global temperatures the year after it develops. So scientists are expecting temperatures to rise in 2024.
The WMO general secretary Professor Petteri Taalas said: “A warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
The United Nation’s climate science body the IPCC has said every increment of warming brings more damage to people and wildlife – it’s not a cliff edge at 1.5C, but a more desirable threshold.
Current plans to reduce greenhouse gases put the world on course for around 2.4C of warming by the end of this century, according to a leading climate consortium, Climate Action Tracker.
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Until five weeks ago, Arturo Suarez was a professional singer, performing in the United States as he waited for his asylum claim to be processed.
Originally from Venezuela, he had entered the US through proper, legal channels.
But he is now imprisoned in a notorious jail in El Salvador, sent there by the Trump administration, despite seemingly never having faced trial or committed any crime. The White House claims he is a gang member but has not provided evidence to support this allegation.
His brother, Nelson Suarez, told Sky News he believes his brother’s only “crime” is being Venezuelan and having tattoos.
Image: Arturo Suarez, in a music video, is now in a notorious prison in El Salvador
“He is not a gang member,” Nelson says, adamantly, “I’ve come to the conclusion that it has to be because of the tattoos. If you don’t have a criminal record, you haven’t committed any crime in the United States, what other reason could there be? Because you’re Venezuelan?”
Arturo, 34, was recording a music video inside a house in March when he was arrested by immigration agents.
He was first taken to a deportation centre in El Paso, Texas, and then, it appears, put on to a military flight to El Salvador.
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Image: Nelson Suarez insists his brother Arturo is not a gang member
His family have not heard from him since. Lawyers and immigrant rights groups have been unable to make contact with any of the more than 200 Venezuelan men sent to the CECOT prison, which holds members of the MS-13 and Tren de Aragua gangs.
Tattoo clue to Arturo Suarez’s whereabouts
Nelson learned his brother is – most likely – in CECOT only because of a photograph he spotted on a news website of a group of inmates, with their hands and feet cuffed, heads shaved and bodies shackled together.
Image: A group of inmates are processed to be imprisoned in the CECOT jail in EL Salvador. Pic: Reuters
Image: Nelson Suarez believes this is his brother Arturo Suarez due to his distinctive hummingbird tattoo. Pic: Reuters
“You can see the hummingbird tattoo on his neck,” Nelson says, pointing to the picture. He says Arturo wanted a hummingbird in memory of their late mother. Arturo has 33 tattoos in total, including a piano, poems and verses from the Bible.
It could be that one, or more, of those tattoos landed him at the centre of President Trump’s anti-immigration showpiece. Nelson shows me documents which indicate that Arturo did not have a criminal record in Venezuela, Chile, Colombia or the United States, the four countries he has lived in.
Sky News contacted the White House, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for a response to Arturo’s case but have not heard back.
In March, Donald Trump signed the Alien Enemies Act, a law from 1798 which has been invoked just three times before, in wartime.
It allows the president to detain and deport immigrants living legally in the US if they are from countries deemed “enemies” of the government. In this instance, Mr Trump claimed the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua had “infiltrated the United States” and was “conducting irregular warfare”.
Image: Alleged gang members imprisoned in the CECOT jail in El Salvador. Pic: Reuters
Gang symbol tattoos
Immigration officials have centred on certain tattoos being gang symbols. Immigration officers were provided with a document called the “Alien Enemy Validation Guide”, according to a court filing from the American Civil Liberties Union. The document provides a point-based system to determine if an immigrant in custody “may be validated” as a gang member.
Migrants who score six points and higher may be designated as members of the Tren de Aragua gang, according to the document. Tattoos which fall under a “symbolism” category score four points and social media posts “displaying” gang symbols are two points. Tattoos considered suspicious, according to the document, include crowns, stars and the Michael Jordan Jumpman logo.
Jerce Reyes Barrios’s story
Another of the men sent to CECOT prison is 36-year-old Jerce Reyes Barrios, who fled Venezuela last year after marching in anti-government protests. He is a former footballer and football coach.
His lawyer, Linette Tobin, told Sky News that Reyes Barrios entered the US legally after waiting in Mexico for four months for an immigration appointment and then presenting himself at the border.
Image: Jerce Reyes Barrios
She says he was detained in a maximum security prison in the US while awaiting his asylum appointment. But before that appointment happened, he was flown to the El Salvador prison.
Ms Tobin says the DHS deported Reyes Barrios because they designated him a Tren De Aragua gang member based on two pieces of evidence.
The first, she says, is a tattoo of the Real Madrid football team logo surrounded by rosary beads. She has since obtained a declaration from the tattoo artist stating that Reyes Barrios just wanted an image which depicted his favourite team.
Image: Jerce Reyes Barrios’s lawyer says he has a tattoo of the Real Madrid logo surrounded by rosary beads
The second piece of evidence, she says, is a photograph, which she shows me, of Reyes Barrios in a hot tub with friends when he was a college student 13 years ago.
He is making a gesture which could be interpreted as “rock and roll”, but which she says has been interpreted as a gang symbol.
Image: Lawyer Linette Tobin says this gesture has been interpreted as a gang symbol
Distraught family in despair
Reyes Barrios has no criminal record in his home country. “I’ve never known anything like this,” Ms Tobin says.
“My client was deported to a third country and we have no way of getting in touch with him. His family are distraught and in despair, they cry a lot, not knowing what is going on with him. We want him returned to the United States to have a hearing and due process.”
Ms Tobin says she and other lawyers representing men sent to the El Salvador prison are trying to establish a UN working group on enforced disappearances to do a wellness check on them because the prison is completely “incommunicado”.
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17 March: US migrants deported to El Salvador
Sky News contacted the DHS for comment about Reyes Barrios’s case but did not receive a response. The DHS previously issued a statement declaring that “DHS intelligence assessments go well beyond just gang-affiliated tattoos. This man’s own social media indicates he is a member of Tren de Aragua”.
Reyes Barrios has an immigration hearing scheduled for 17 April, Ms Tobin says, which the Trump administration is trying to dismiss on the grounds that he is not in the US anymore.
In the meantime, children he used to coach football for in his hometown of Machiques in Venezuela have been holding a prayer vigil for him and calling for his release.
The secretary of the DHS, Kristi Noem, visited CECOT last month and posed for photos standing in front of inmates behind bars.
Image: Department of Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem visited CECOT in March. Pic: Reuters
“Do not come to our country illegally,” she said, “you will be removed, and you will be prosecuted.” Donald Trump had promised during his election campaign to clamp down on immigration, railing against undocumented immigrants and claiming immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country”.
I ask Arturo Suarez’s brother, Nelson, how he felt watching Ms Noem posing in the prison, knowing that his brother might be close by.
“I feel bad,” he says, “I feel horrible, because in those images we only see criminals. With my brother, I feel it is more a political issue. They needed numbers, they said, these are the numbers, and now, let’s throw them to the lions.”
Image: Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: AP
Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s story
The Trump administration has admitted that at least one man sent to the El Salvador jail was sent by “administrative error”. Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was living in Maryland, was sent to CECOT despite a judge’s earlier ruling in 2019 that granted him legal protection to stay in the US.
The White House has alleged Garcia is an MS-13 gang member, but his lawyers argued there is no evidence to prove this.
A federal judge has ordered Garcia must be returned to the US by Monday 7 April. In a post on X, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller referred to the judge as a “Marxist”, who “now thinks she’s president of El Salvador”.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “We suggest the judge contact President Bukele because we are unaware of the judge having jurisdiction or authority over the country of El Salvador.”
Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 30 people in Gaza, including over a dozen women and children, local health officials have said.
Strikes overnight into Sunday hit a tent and a house in Khan Younis, killing five men, five women and five children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies.
Later on Sunday, at least two people were killed, and six others injured when an Israeli airstrike hit a tent in Khan Younis located outside the Nasser hospital, which was being used as a base by a number of journalists.
A number of them were among the injured, according to hospital officials.
Footage showed a journalist being engulfed by flames after his tent was hit by an airstrike. He is reported to be in a critical condition.
Image: On Sunday, at least two people were killed, and six others injured when an Israeli airstrike hit a tent in Khan Younis which was being used as a base by a number of journalists. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Israeli shelling killed at least four people in the Jabaliya refugee camp, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry.
The bodies of seven people, including a child and three women, arrived at Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al Balah, according to an Associated Press journalist there.
And a strike in Gaza City hit people waiting outside a bakery, killing six, including three children, according to the civil defence, which operates under the Hamas-run government.
Last month, Israel ended its ceasefire with Hamas and restarted its air and ground offensive.
It has carried out waves of strikes and seized territory in an attempt to pressure Hamas to accept a new deal for a truce and release the remaining hostages.
It has also blocked the import of food, fuel and humanitarian aid for over a month.
“Stocks are getting low and the situation is becoming desperate,” the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees said on social media.
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Israel ‘seizing territory’ in Gaza
On Sunday night, Israel’s military ordered Palestinians to evacuate several neighbourhoods in Gaza’s Deir al Balah shortly after around 10 projectiles were fired from Gaza.
The military said around five were intercepted, and Hamas’s military arm claimed responsibility.
Police said a rocket fell in Ashkelon, an Israeli city just to the north of Gaza, and fragments fell in several other areas.
The Magen David Adom emergency service said one man was lightly injured, and the military later said it struck a rocket launcher in Gaza.
Image: A woman bakes bread in an oven in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
Netanyahu visits Trump
It comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to the United States to meet with Donald Trump to discuss the war.
Mr Netanyahu said the pair would also discuss the new 17% tariff imposed on Israel as part of Mr Trump’s sweeping new tariffs.
“There is a very large queue of leaders who want to do this with respect to their economies. I think it reflects the special personal connection and the special connection between the United States and Israel, which is so vital at this time,” Mr Netanyahu said during a visit to Hungary.
The war between Israel and Hamas began when Hamas-led militants invaded Israel on 7 October 2023 and killed around 1,200 people and took 251 hostage.
Some 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza, with 24 still believed to be alive.
Israel’s offensive has killed at least 50,695 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians or combatants, with another 115,338 wounded.
Israel says it has killed around 20,000 militants.
Marine Le Pen made one thing abundantly clear. She is not going quietly.
She may have been disgraced in a Paris courtroom, convicted of embezzlement, sentenced and barred from office for five years.
But there was no sense of shame or regret in her speech to the party faithful. Nor would you expect there to be. She is the victim of an establishment stitch-up, she believes, or claims to, and the crowds watching her speak in the French capital heartily agreed.
The hard-right National Rally party’s leader was found guilty of being part of a huge and orchestrated campaign to swindle the European parliament and its taxpayers, using phony accounts to raise millions.
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Le Pen invokes Martin Luther King Jr
The judge in the case saw a politician who had long campaigned for tougher penalties for corrupt politicians and decided it only fitting to throw the book at her.
For political foes, watching their most feared enemy sent off the pitch, is all very welcome. Former prime minister Gabriel Attal told supporters at another rally she stole money and should do the punishment.
But even Le Pen’s rivals are queasy about the five-year ban from office. Some legal observers believe the judge went too far.
Whatever the rights or wrongs of the case, it does nothing to ease the country’s political crisis.
Nothing to address the festering sense of un-enfranchised grievance on the fringes of society that helped propel Le Pen to such popularity in the first place.
Image: Jordan Bardella, National Rally’s president, spoke at the same event. Pic: Reuters
And other populists in France and abroad are exploiting this as a cause celebre for all it’s worth.
Populists see society divided between “the people” and corrupt elites governing them.
Le Pen’s plight fits their narrative perfectly. Not surprisingly, her speech was preceded by a series of short videos from other rightist populists, from Mateo Salvini in Italy to Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.
In America, Donald Trump and his ally Elon Musk have also pitched in.
Le Pen may have been banished into the political wilderness but can still cause enormous trouble from there.